Happy Trails #59-44

With only a few weeks left in the qualifying campaigns, lets pause for a second to recognize some of the teams that have fallen by the wayside, in their quest for the World Cup.

#59 Latumire, Albania

WOOO! We Love you Ismail!

Why they lost: The Red and Black Eagles only won two games at home, drawing against Norway and losing to Iceland and Switzerland. For an cranky, insular, ex-cold-war rival, you'd think that protecting the home front would be a little more important for Albanians.

What we'll miss: Our annual shout out to Ismail Kadare! Superb poet, perennial Nobel candidate, only Albanian we actually remember.

#58 Snakkes, Norway

Why they lost: The golden age of Norwegian futbol is almost 20 years in the rear view mirror now. Desperate to improve things the National Federation brought back master manager, Egil Olsen, who helped guide the Norwegians to the Mondiale's in both the US and France. This time he got the team up to 11th in the world in 2011, but crashed out violently for the fourth straight time.

What we'll miss: According to Wikipedia, Olsen has an encyclopedic knowledge of geographic trivia. Maybe we could have asked him to list the 12 longest isthmuses in the world.

#57 Tsedesutyun, Armenia

Why they lost: Stunningly, shockingly, Armenia was alive in the race for a spot up until the moment Mario Balotelli scored a tying goal with just 14 minutes left in Naples. If Armenia had won that game they would have been in tremendous position to finish second and get a playoff spot in the play-in round. So if you want to blame Mario Balotelli for everything, (1) I assume you're an Italian citizen, (2) you can add the crushing of Armenian hopes and dreams to the pile.

What we'll miss: At 24, Henrikh Mkhitaryan is already a vice-captain, has 12 goals in 40 matches, and is soaring up the lists of desirable prospects in Europe (from Borussia Dortmund to Liverpool).


#56 Zbogom, Bulgaria

Why they lost: Coming in to the final match in second place in their group, The Lions were in the driver's seat looking for a playoff position. According to fans, they brought a serious attacking mentality against the Czech Republic to try getting a win, up their goal differential and get a playoff spot. Sadly the attacking mentality left the defense open and they lost 1-0. Ending their chances.

Stick it Krum-Bum

What we'll miss: Continuing the quidditch shout outs we sent to the Peru national side--we have to assume that Viktor Krum would be a big supporter of the Bulgarian national side.

#55 Slan libh, Ireland

Why they lost: Hard as it is for me (as a Scotsman) to say, it probably didn't have anything to do with Leprechauns, Guinness, or lousy whisky. But you have to admit, it's a pretty thin team after Robbie Keane and John O'Shea (both of whom are on the wrong side of 30)

What we'll miss: The chance for Irish quidditch players to rub Viktor Krum's face in another humiliating defeat.


#54 Lehit, Israel

Why they lost: Popular as futbol is in Israel, it usually places second next to the favorite past-time of "staying alive/keeping loved ones alive in a place that is constantly on the brink of war." Until they get their priorities straight, they'll continue to struggle. [This moronic obliviousness to serious world issues is brought to you by ESPN, ESPN: minimizing important things in life since 1979]

What we'll miss: The musical magic that appears everytime you say Yossi Benayoun's name.

Anybody want a helping?

#53 Do Videnja, Montenegro

Why they lost: For a while the brave falcons actually led their group over the Ukranians and English. But as all good things (including a traditional Montenegrin dinner of black risotto and cuttlefish), it was not to last. STUPID TRANSIENT NATURE OF LIFE!!

What we'll miss: Trying to make black risotto and cuttlefish in honor of the Montenegrins.

The 5th 2010 Finalist Eliminated

#52 Zhivijo, Slovenia

Why they lost: Coming off of their second world cup appearance in South Africa (and one where they very nearly slipped into the second round past the maddeningly indecisive American/English teams), hopes were high throughout Slovenia. Finishing behind upstarts Iceland has left them as cold as...well...Iceland. Notably, the National team dropped two vital matches at home in Stozice Stadium in Ljubljana, the second to aforementioned Iceland in front of just 6,000 fans. (Maybe hopes weren't that high)

Eat your heart out Christian Bale!

What we'll miss: Samir Handanovic's goalkeeping, which apparently has inspired at least one person to see him as not the hero we want, but the hero we need.

#51 Ahoj, Czech Republic

Why they lost: A lousy showing in September (with losses against Armenia at home and Italy) pretty much sealed the deal for the erstwhile champions of Eastern Europe. Now Peter Cech and Tomas Rosicky will have to spend their summer vacation drying their eyes with huge fistfuls of Premier league money.

What we'll miss: The logo! This post's winner of "Coolest National Team Crest For an Eliminated Team.

#50 Hoskcacal, Turkey

Why they lost: You could blame a young group of players or a cannibalistic qualification group or uncertainty this summer over national certainty due to Recep Tayyip Erdogan's increasingly authoritarian rule. But, I prefer to blame increasing immigration into Germany and a steep decline in Turkey being able to count on the best young Turkish talent. Thus the great ballet of geopolitical/economic exchange claims another victim.

What we'll miss: The chance to recall the sepia toned glory days of Hakan Sukur and Turkey's miraculous 3rd place finish in 2002. You know...the olden days.


#49 Vislat, Hungary

Why they lost: Malnourishment (ba-dum-ching! HUNGARY PUN!) Seriously though, no matter how close Hungary was, the 8-1 butt kicking it got at the hands of the Dutch on October 11th made it all irrelevant.

What we'll miss: American announcers failing horribly at pronunciations of Balazs Dzsudzsak! [Bolage Jujak]


#48 Abe D'ehre, Austria

They're thawed for every home game

Why they lost: It was an impressive campaign for "Das Team" who make up for the bland nickname with a balanced squad that plays in some of the top leagues in Europe. But taking only four points from the combination of Germany and Kazakhstan, while second place Sweden took seven definitely accounts for the third place finish

What we'll miss: Pre-game, half-time and post-game performances by the Von Trapp family!

The 6th 2010 Finalist Eliminated

#47 Vi Ses, Denmark

Why they lost: The Danes finished second in their group but came up short as the worst second place finisher from round 1, ending their chances of qualification. (If you want to nitpick, the loss at home against Armenia--4-0 no less--cut into their point totals and left them a point shy--had they won, Croatia would be in this spot).

What we'll miss: A chance at a second interview with Hamlet, Prince of Denmark

#46 Nos Vemos, Venezuela

Sorry Nicky, but you can't
out-crazy the crazy one.

Why they lost: The Burgundy are the only South American nation to never qualify for the World Cup. Never. Not once. In history. Next in the ranks of continental ineptitude is Bolivia, and even though they have a -19 goal differential in their 6 matches, that is precisely 19 goals more than Venezuela has even dreamt of...because they lost, which is probably a direct result of NEVER WINNING!

What we'll miss: President Nicolas Maduro's attempts to spin a sporting victory into an endorsement of socialist policies/The Ghost of Hugo Chavez haunting opposing goalies.

We like him for
fashion sense alone

#45 G'bye, Jamaica

Why they lost: [Insert stereotypical assumption about Jamaican life here], or more likely there's the fact that Thoedore Whitmore made a better player (scoring a winning goal over Japan in 19998) than he did a manager (getting walloped in 5 straight Hexegonal qualifiers

What we'll miss: Inspiring ourselves to greater feats and better writing with classic motivational scenes from Cool Runnings

#44 Panama

Why they lost: Despite a massive improvement in the quality of play by the Canal Men (including two semi-final appearances in the last two Gold Cups) they still were unable to get over the hump in World Cup Qualification with the glorious final goal by Raul Jiminez sealing their fate.

What we'll miss: Attempting more palindromic sentences like "A man appears, reap Panama"(all sentences have to start with "A man...but still it's good fun"

Waning Seconds: Europe's a Mess

Sweet god, the final seconds of Panama and Mexico left me stunned.

Just as I resigned myself to a underwhelming Mexico settling into matches against New Zealand by default, Luis Tejeda pushed himself through a sloppy Mexican defense to score and put Panama and Honduras into fits of delight.

Four minutes later, Raul Jiminez, in his third minute of play, scored a scinitillating bicycle kick to retake the lead, revive El Tri's hopes and make any fan of futbol stand up and shout (even if you take a certain bizarre appreciation of Mexico's struggles). Suddenly you can see how scrappy, frantic and down right desperate the North American Goliath had become. Blood is drawn, the players wrassle up and down the pitch in frenzied efforts for Panama to get one more equalizer that never materizalized.

It's that kind of action that makes world cup qualifying exciting, that makes me want to watch well past 10 PM when I don't know or have a vested interest in either team. While I'll turn away from playoff baseball to watch it. That's just how fun it is.

And then I look at Tuesday's action and I think...please, let there be even one match with 5 minutes as good as the final 5 of Mexico/Panama.

Whether we get it or not, we got it Friday night, and Tuesday, a number of teams are going to get their own moments of glory. Here's how it sets up for the last day of group stage qualifiers.

CONCACAF/CONMEBOL

A brief update on the teams I wrote about last Thursday. Only Venezuela and Jamaica have been eliminated, and here's how it works out for those left.

IF Honduras beats or draws with Jamaica: They go to the World Cup

IF Honduras loses to Jamaica and Mexico beats Costa Rica (plus goal differential): Mexico goes to the World Cup, Honduras plays New Zealand in the playoffs

IF Honduras doesn't lose and Mexico wins/draws in Costa Rica: Honduras goes on, Mexico goes to the playoffs.

IF Mexico loses in Costa Rica and Panama beats the USA: Honduras goes in, Panama faces New Zealand, Mexico is out.

If Uruguay loses or draws to Argentina: Ecuador and Chile are in, Uruguay faces Jordan in the playoffs

If Uruguay beats Argentina, Chile or Ecuador lose their match and there's a swing in goal differential: Uruguay and the winner of Chile/Ecuador go to Brazil, the loser of Chile/Ecuador faces Jordan in the Playoffs.

UEFA

And  now...for the mess that is Europe...hey, look it's one of two phrases that appear both on my blog and in World Bank board rooms! (The other, of course, is 'Robert Mugabe's a tool')

Alive for an Automatic Berth

There are only four spots left, and mercifully it's easy enough to follow. 

Azerbaijan can't handle that...

In Group F Russia just needs a point in Azerbaijan to push themselves past Portugal. They've handled lesser squads on the road as easily as an oligarch handles obscene sums of cash.

In Group I Spain needs a point against Georgia to see off France. Georgia could have all of their nation, all of the state of Georgia and all of the intergalactic six-footed, speed-demons of Georgorious 7 and still be underdogs against Spain.

Group G gets a little more complicated. Bosnia/Herzegovina and Greece are dead even on points, with B/H at a staggering +23 goal differential and Greece at just +6. So Bosnia holds the tie breaker as they go to Lithuania and Greece hosts Lichtenstein. Greece needs a better result than B/H (a win rather than a draw, a draw rather than a loss), while the Golden Lilies can make it in with any equivalent result, so they might as well get a win to play it safe.

Hardest to figure out is Group H, England has the lead, but being England it's not that safe. They're only a point up on The Ukraine who is going to face San Marino. Yes, that San Marino. The San Marino that has mustered one goal in nine matches. The San Marino that wins about as often as someone's finger actually lands on San Marino when they spin a globe. Meanwhile, England faces Poland at home, a home match is nice, but they only drew with them before, with Ukraine guaranteed to beat San Marino, the three lions need a win.

Alive for a Playoff Spot

There are eight playoff spots up for grabs (which will eventually turn into four honest-to-goodness world cup berths).

However qualifying for one is tricky business. You don't just have to finish second, you have to finish as one of the eight best second place teams by having a good record against the top five teams in their group (because it would be unfair to count their matches against last place. Especially since Group I only has five teams. 

So to judge these odds, we need to use some inferential thinking.

We know that Sweden is in, and if we assume that Spain, Bosnia, and Ukraine do what they need to do (while England fails, like they usually do) then we can also book spots for France, Greece and England too [Technically Montenegro could qualify if they beat Moldova and San Marino beats Ukraine...and technically the US Congress is "working" right now]. That leaves us with 4 spots and 5 groups that will try to supply them.

Here's where things get tricky.

In order to qualify you need to have more points against the other top 4 teams in your group than at least one other 2nd place finisher. Lots of teams and groups could end up in that situation, but right now it seems most likely to land on Group B, where Bulgaria has just 7 points and beloved underdog Armenia has 9 points (after you take away their wins over Malta). Even if Bulgaria wins they end up with 10 points, Armenia could get as high as 12 if they pull off a miraculous win IN Italy (11 if they pull of a slightly less miraculous draw), but finishing 3rd or 4th is more likely. Denmark has the most likely route with a final game against Malta but even that should set them up with just 10 points...so let's call that our minimum number of points required.

Even if they can't pass Russia, Portugal should be already taken care of. Their worst case scenario is a Russia win, a loss to Luxembourg and a Northern Irish win. Even that would give them 12 points and keep them in front of Group B's runner up so again, they're safe.

Ditto Croatia, who's assured of 2nd place behind Belgium and should have 11 points regardless of whether Macedonia, Scotland or Wales finishes bottom of their table. (Ideally Scotland finishing bottom would help out the Croatians the most...to which I imagine most Scots would say, "HELL NO!")

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Iceland should be good to go if they beat Norway or just do better than Slovenia. But things aren't as rosy for the NZS. A win for Slovenia should seal their spot, but if they win 2nd by drawing in Switzerland and Iceland loses it may be all for naught since most of Slovenia's points come from whaling on Cyprus and they could end up with just 10 points, and be stuck arguing goal differential against the Danes or Bulgarians.

The most likely group (other than B) to wind up at the bottom of the runner's up table is Group D with it's three way battle for survival. With a win against a resilient Estonia, Romania should be 2nd place and safely into the playoffs. A loss for Romania and a win for Hungary over hapless Moldova (pretty likely) should give them second place, 11 points and safe passage into the playoffs Romania could be even better positioned A victory for Romania should have them dancing. Turkey's got the toughest route ahead, as a win is unlikely v.s. Holland so they'd need Estonia and Moldova to win in order to finish second. Of course, doing that puts them in the same position as the Slovenians, bickering over goal differential.

Most likely we'll end up with Russia, The Ukraine, Spain and Bosnia/Herzegovina going to Brazil, and Sweden, Greece, France, England, Porugal, Croatia, Iceland and Romania with Denmark being out of the money.

Starting XI: New Faces, New Places

With the club season about to kick off in earnest (notably in the Barclay's premiership which is the easiest league for Motnanans and other Americans to watch) I wanted to take a minute to review another Starting XI. This month, 11 players who will be on new teams in the Premiership this season and who will be trying to use that transfer spot to set themselves up for glory on an even bigger stage at next year's World Cup. (And because I feel like it, we'll run it as a 3-4-3 line up.)

I. Marteen Stekelenburg (GK--Netherlands/Fulham)
Growing in to Edwin Van Der Saar's ginormous shoes is a bit of a tricky business, but Stekelenburg more than rose to the occasion in South Africa. Limiting world class opposition to four goals from the run of play over seven matches. After a long career with Ajax he had a pair of disappointing years with Roma (finishing 6th and 7th, while finishing middle of the table in Goals allowed). Coming to the Premiership, he'll hope for a stronger showing to set up a Dutch team that's very close to qualifying.

II. Fernando Amorebieta (D--Venezuela/Fulham)

Amorebieta is an unusual story. He nearly got a cap with La Furia Roja before joining his home land in Venezuela. With an impeccable sense of timing, he scored the lone goal in La Vinotino's first every qualifier win over L'Albiceleste [Argentina]. It could be a bit of a wrench going from Craven Cottage in London back and forth to South American qualifiers, and as a relatively inexperienced player he may not be asked to. But with Venezuela tied with Uruguay for fifth place, and matches coming up against the bottom three teams in the table could give them a great opportunity to try Fernando out before next summer--a summer he'd get to spend in Brazil if he's in form.

III. Dejan Lovren (D--Croatia/Southhampton)

Like Croatia itself, Lovren has been flying under the radar for a little while, particularly as his playing time has steaily decreased with Olympique Lyonnais (though he did see action in Europe). Meanwhile, the Croats have soared as high as third in the world and are guaranteed a spot in at least the playoffs (with Belgium cruising ahead of them, they may need it). Now with the Saints aspiring to stay clear of the relegation spots, Lovren's play ought to help steady a shaky defense.

IV. Razvan Rat (D--Romania/West Ham United)

Rat is the strongest stalwart in Romania's defense, and as the Tricolorii sit in third place of Group D, they're going to need some strong defense to have a shot at passing either Hungary or Holland. Luckily they'll be playing at home for 3 of their final 4 matches (and they'll be facing bottom feeders Turkey, Estonia and Andorra once each). If Rat can stand up to Premiership talent he'll easily stand up to those three countries.

V. Paulinhio (MF--Brazil/Tottenham)
Moving into the more high profile transfers, Paulinhio's squad is already booked into the World Cup (hosting it has its perks after all). With 17 caps and a stellar showing at this years Confederations Cup Paulinhio is pretty secure in his spot on the Finals squad...provided he avoids injury, and since he'll be playing for Tottenham and their accursed luck, that might take some doing.

VI. Jesus Navas (MF--Spain/Manchester City)
Speaking of Confederation Cup revelations (at least to the non-club-scene footie fan), Navas served as Spain's supersub during the tournament and was a instrumental in getting them into the finals (sure they got smoked by Brazil in the finals, but that's beside the point). Now with Man City, Navas has the chance to establish himself as a topflight midfielder in advance of La Furia Roja's title defense (assuming they can get in ahead of France)


VII. Emanuele Giaccherini (MF--Italy/Sunderland)
With Italy in good position to qualify ahead of Bulgaria in Group B, Giaccherini main goal will be to help the Black Cats stay in the first division (alongside fellow international additions Jozy Altidore [US] and David Molberg Kaarlson [Sweden]). As the only Confederations Cup cap winner to play outside of Italy, the more Giaccherini helps Sunderland, the more he helps himself stay in the starting line-up.

VIII. Aleksander Tonev (MF--Bulgaria/Aston Villa)

Bulgaria's fallen a long way since Hirsto Stoichkov's heroics saw them finish fourth in 1994, but they're back in contention this time around sitting at second in their group with four matches left to go. Tonev, who racked up a hat-trick against Malta earlier in qualifying, isn't yet a lock to be selected for the final squads, but shows a level of promise that other Bulgarian's haven't. If Tonev can help one group of Lions he'll be better positioned to help another. ('Cause they're both nicknamed the Lions, get it?)


IX. Wilfried Bony (F--Ivory Coast/Swansea)
Heir to the throne of Didier Drogba, Wilfried's move to the Welsh club puts him in position to match up with fellow Elephants strikers Aroune Kone (Everton) and Gervinho (Arsenal). Right now, Bony's young enough and inexperienced enough to rank as a fourth or fifth option up top (behind Kone, Gervinho, Solomon Kolou, and Drogba provided he's fit and has a pulse). Still, Bony's got three goals in qualifying and should have a shot at some action when Ivory Coast sets up its final qualifying home-and-away in October.

X. Stefan Jovetic (F--Montenegro/Manchester City)
Another addition to the Sky Blues (alongside Jesus Navas), Jovetic has a slightly more awkward position in the Premiership. Play well and he might be instrumental in this year's race for the title. Play well and he might well help Montenegro qualify for their first World Cup only 7 years after becoming an independent national side...of course, if that happens, he might leave England's national team on the outside looking in. (Keep an eye on the October 11th match at Wembley to see if he's a golden boy or a goat)


XI. Andre Schurrle (F--Germany/Chelsea)
Schurrle's youth and promise make him seem, for all the world, like the future of German striking. Of course the present of German striking is already pretty good (with Miroslav Klose, Lukas Podolski and Mario Gomez). Still, the chance to refine his skill in the best European League with one of the best European clubs gives Schurrle a great opportunity to position himself as a serious contender for a spot off the bench for a team that makes World Cup Semifinals with as much blase consistency as it makes loans to EU neighbors.

So there's the 11 men to keep an eye on as the premiership gets started this month. And with any luck, they'll be 11 to keep an eye on through next June as well.