Happy Trails #59-44

With only a few weeks left in the qualifying campaigns, lets pause for a second to recognize some of the teams that have fallen by the wayside, in their quest for the World Cup.

#59 Latumire, Albania

WOOO! We Love you Ismail!

Why they lost: The Red and Black Eagles only won two games at home, drawing against Norway and losing to Iceland and Switzerland. For an cranky, insular, ex-cold-war rival, you'd think that protecting the home front would be a little more important for Albanians.

What we'll miss: Our annual shout out to Ismail Kadare! Superb poet, perennial Nobel candidate, only Albanian we actually remember.

#58 Snakkes, Norway

Why they lost: The golden age of Norwegian futbol is almost 20 years in the rear view mirror now. Desperate to improve things the National Federation brought back master manager, Egil Olsen, who helped guide the Norwegians to the Mondiale's in both the US and France. This time he got the team up to 11th in the world in 2011, but crashed out violently for the fourth straight time.

What we'll miss: According to Wikipedia, Olsen has an encyclopedic knowledge of geographic trivia. Maybe we could have asked him to list the 12 longest isthmuses in the world.

#57 Tsedesutyun, Armenia

Why they lost: Stunningly, shockingly, Armenia was alive in the race for a spot up until the moment Mario Balotelli scored a tying goal with just 14 minutes left in Naples. If Armenia had won that game they would have been in tremendous position to finish second and get a playoff spot in the play-in round. So if you want to blame Mario Balotelli for everything, (1) I assume you're an Italian citizen, (2) you can add the crushing of Armenian hopes and dreams to the pile.

What we'll miss: At 24, Henrikh Mkhitaryan is already a vice-captain, has 12 goals in 40 matches, and is soaring up the lists of desirable prospects in Europe (from Borussia Dortmund to Liverpool).


#56 Zbogom, Bulgaria

Why they lost: Coming in to the final match in second place in their group, The Lions were in the driver's seat looking for a playoff position. According to fans, they brought a serious attacking mentality against the Czech Republic to try getting a win, up their goal differential and get a playoff spot. Sadly the attacking mentality left the defense open and they lost 1-0. Ending their chances.

Stick it Krum-Bum

What we'll miss: Continuing the quidditch shout outs we sent to the Peru national side--we have to assume that Viktor Krum would be a big supporter of the Bulgarian national side.

#55 Slan libh, Ireland

Why they lost: Hard as it is for me (as a Scotsman) to say, it probably didn't have anything to do with Leprechauns, Guinness, or lousy whisky. But you have to admit, it's a pretty thin team after Robbie Keane and John O'Shea (both of whom are on the wrong side of 30)

What we'll miss: The chance for Irish quidditch players to rub Viktor Krum's face in another humiliating defeat.


#54 Lehit, Israel

Why they lost: Popular as futbol is in Israel, it usually places second next to the favorite past-time of "staying alive/keeping loved ones alive in a place that is constantly on the brink of war." Until they get their priorities straight, they'll continue to struggle. [This moronic obliviousness to serious world issues is brought to you by ESPN, ESPN: minimizing important things in life since 1979]

What we'll miss: The musical magic that appears everytime you say Yossi Benayoun's name.

Anybody want a helping?

#53 Do Videnja, Montenegro

Why they lost: For a while the brave falcons actually led their group over the Ukranians and English. But as all good things (including a traditional Montenegrin dinner of black risotto and cuttlefish), it was not to last. STUPID TRANSIENT NATURE OF LIFE!!

What we'll miss: Trying to make black risotto and cuttlefish in honor of the Montenegrins.

The 5th 2010 Finalist Eliminated

#52 Zhivijo, Slovenia

Why they lost: Coming off of their second world cup appearance in South Africa (and one where they very nearly slipped into the second round past the maddeningly indecisive American/English teams), hopes were high throughout Slovenia. Finishing behind upstarts Iceland has left them as cold as...well...Iceland. Notably, the National team dropped two vital matches at home in Stozice Stadium in Ljubljana, the second to aforementioned Iceland in front of just 6,000 fans. (Maybe hopes weren't that high)

Eat your heart out Christian Bale!

What we'll miss: Samir Handanovic's goalkeeping, which apparently has inspired at least one person to see him as not the hero we want, but the hero we need.

#51 Ahoj, Czech Republic

Why they lost: A lousy showing in September (with losses against Armenia at home and Italy) pretty much sealed the deal for the erstwhile champions of Eastern Europe. Now Peter Cech and Tomas Rosicky will have to spend their summer vacation drying their eyes with huge fistfuls of Premier league money.

What we'll miss: The logo! This post's winner of "Coolest National Team Crest For an Eliminated Team.

#50 Hoskcacal, Turkey

Why they lost: You could blame a young group of players or a cannibalistic qualification group or uncertainty this summer over national certainty due to Recep Tayyip Erdogan's increasingly authoritarian rule. But, I prefer to blame increasing immigration into Germany and a steep decline in Turkey being able to count on the best young Turkish talent. Thus the great ballet of geopolitical/economic exchange claims another victim.

What we'll miss: The chance to recall the sepia toned glory days of Hakan Sukur and Turkey's miraculous 3rd place finish in 2002. You know...the olden days.


#49 Vislat, Hungary

Why they lost: Malnourishment (ba-dum-ching! HUNGARY PUN!) Seriously though, no matter how close Hungary was, the 8-1 butt kicking it got at the hands of the Dutch on October 11th made it all irrelevant.

What we'll miss: American announcers failing horribly at pronunciations of Balazs Dzsudzsak! [Bolage Jujak]


#48 Abe D'ehre, Austria

They're thawed for every home game

Why they lost: It was an impressive campaign for "Das Team" who make up for the bland nickname with a balanced squad that plays in some of the top leagues in Europe. But taking only four points from the combination of Germany and Kazakhstan, while second place Sweden took seven definitely accounts for the third place finish

What we'll miss: Pre-game, half-time and post-game performances by the Von Trapp family!

The 6th 2010 Finalist Eliminated

#47 Vi Ses, Denmark

Why they lost: The Danes finished second in their group but came up short as the worst second place finisher from round 1, ending their chances of qualification. (If you want to nitpick, the loss at home against Armenia--4-0 no less--cut into their point totals and left them a point shy--had they won, Croatia would be in this spot).

What we'll miss: A chance at a second interview with Hamlet, Prince of Denmark

#46 Nos Vemos, Venezuela

Sorry Nicky, but you can't
out-crazy the crazy one.

Why they lost: The Burgundy are the only South American nation to never qualify for the World Cup. Never. Not once. In history. Next in the ranks of continental ineptitude is Bolivia, and even though they have a -19 goal differential in their 6 matches, that is precisely 19 goals more than Venezuela has even dreamt of...because they lost, which is probably a direct result of NEVER WINNING!

What we'll miss: President Nicolas Maduro's attempts to spin a sporting victory into an endorsement of socialist policies/The Ghost of Hugo Chavez haunting opposing goalies.

We like him for
fashion sense alone

#45 G'bye, Jamaica

Why they lost: [Insert stereotypical assumption about Jamaican life here], or more likely there's the fact that Thoedore Whitmore made a better player (scoring a winning goal over Japan in 19998) than he did a manager (getting walloped in 5 straight Hexegonal qualifiers

What we'll miss: Inspiring ourselves to greater feats and better writing with classic motivational scenes from Cool Runnings

#44 Panama

Why they lost: Despite a massive improvement in the quality of play by the Canal Men (including two semi-final appearances in the last two Gold Cups) they still were unable to get over the hump in World Cup Qualification with the glorious final goal by Raul Jiminez sealing their fate.

What we'll miss: Attempting more palindromic sentences like "A man appears, reap Panama"(all sentences have to start with "A man...but still it's good fun"

Waning Seconds: Europe's a Mess

Sweet god, the final seconds of Panama and Mexico left me stunned.

Just as I resigned myself to a underwhelming Mexico settling into matches against New Zealand by default, Luis Tejeda pushed himself through a sloppy Mexican defense to score and put Panama and Honduras into fits of delight.

Four minutes later, Raul Jiminez, in his third minute of play, scored a scinitillating bicycle kick to retake the lead, revive El Tri's hopes and make any fan of futbol stand up and shout (even if you take a certain bizarre appreciation of Mexico's struggles). Suddenly you can see how scrappy, frantic and down right desperate the North American Goliath had become. Blood is drawn, the players wrassle up and down the pitch in frenzied efforts for Panama to get one more equalizer that never materizalized.

It's that kind of action that makes world cup qualifying exciting, that makes me want to watch well past 10 PM when I don't know or have a vested interest in either team. While I'll turn away from playoff baseball to watch it. That's just how fun it is.

And then I look at Tuesday's action and I think...please, let there be even one match with 5 minutes as good as the final 5 of Mexico/Panama.

Whether we get it or not, we got it Friday night, and Tuesday, a number of teams are going to get their own moments of glory. Here's how it sets up for the last day of group stage qualifiers.

CONCACAF/CONMEBOL

A brief update on the teams I wrote about last Thursday. Only Venezuela and Jamaica have been eliminated, and here's how it works out for those left.

IF Honduras beats or draws with Jamaica: They go to the World Cup

IF Honduras loses to Jamaica and Mexico beats Costa Rica (plus goal differential): Mexico goes to the World Cup, Honduras plays New Zealand in the playoffs

IF Honduras doesn't lose and Mexico wins/draws in Costa Rica: Honduras goes on, Mexico goes to the playoffs.

IF Mexico loses in Costa Rica and Panama beats the USA: Honduras goes in, Panama faces New Zealand, Mexico is out.

If Uruguay loses or draws to Argentina: Ecuador and Chile are in, Uruguay faces Jordan in the playoffs

If Uruguay beats Argentina, Chile or Ecuador lose their match and there's a swing in goal differential: Uruguay and the winner of Chile/Ecuador go to Brazil, the loser of Chile/Ecuador faces Jordan in the Playoffs.

UEFA

And  now...for the mess that is Europe...hey, look it's one of two phrases that appear both on my blog and in World Bank board rooms! (The other, of course, is 'Robert Mugabe's a tool')

Alive for an Automatic Berth

There are only four spots left, and mercifully it's easy enough to follow. 

Azerbaijan can't handle that...

In Group F Russia just needs a point in Azerbaijan to push themselves past Portugal. They've handled lesser squads on the road as easily as an oligarch handles obscene sums of cash.

In Group I Spain needs a point against Georgia to see off France. Georgia could have all of their nation, all of the state of Georgia and all of the intergalactic six-footed, speed-demons of Georgorious 7 and still be underdogs against Spain.

Group G gets a little more complicated. Bosnia/Herzegovina and Greece are dead even on points, with B/H at a staggering +23 goal differential and Greece at just +6. So Bosnia holds the tie breaker as they go to Lithuania and Greece hosts Lichtenstein. Greece needs a better result than B/H (a win rather than a draw, a draw rather than a loss), while the Golden Lilies can make it in with any equivalent result, so they might as well get a win to play it safe.

Hardest to figure out is Group H, England has the lead, but being England it's not that safe. They're only a point up on The Ukraine who is going to face San Marino. Yes, that San Marino. The San Marino that has mustered one goal in nine matches. The San Marino that wins about as often as someone's finger actually lands on San Marino when they spin a globe. Meanwhile, England faces Poland at home, a home match is nice, but they only drew with them before, with Ukraine guaranteed to beat San Marino, the three lions need a win.

Alive for a Playoff Spot

There are eight playoff spots up for grabs (which will eventually turn into four honest-to-goodness world cup berths).

However qualifying for one is tricky business. You don't just have to finish second, you have to finish as one of the eight best second place teams by having a good record against the top five teams in their group (because it would be unfair to count their matches against last place. Especially since Group I only has five teams. 

So to judge these odds, we need to use some inferential thinking.

We know that Sweden is in, and if we assume that Spain, Bosnia, and Ukraine do what they need to do (while England fails, like they usually do) then we can also book spots for France, Greece and England too [Technically Montenegro could qualify if they beat Moldova and San Marino beats Ukraine...and technically the US Congress is "working" right now]. That leaves us with 4 spots and 5 groups that will try to supply them.

Here's where things get tricky.

In order to qualify you need to have more points against the other top 4 teams in your group than at least one other 2nd place finisher. Lots of teams and groups could end up in that situation, but right now it seems most likely to land on Group B, where Bulgaria has just 7 points and beloved underdog Armenia has 9 points (after you take away their wins over Malta). Even if Bulgaria wins they end up with 10 points, Armenia could get as high as 12 if they pull off a miraculous win IN Italy (11 if they pull of a slightly less miraculous draw), but finishing 3rd or 4th is more likely. Denmark has the most likely route with a final game against Malta but even that should set them up with just 10 points...so let's call that our minimum number of points required.

Even if they can't pass Russia, Portugal should be already taken care of. Their worst case scenario is a Russia win, a loss to Luxembourg and a Northern Irish win. Even that would give them 12 points and keep them in front of Group B's runner up so again, they're safe.

Ditto Croatia, who's assured of 2nd place behind Belgium and should have 11 points regardless of whether Macedonia, Scotland or Wales finishes bottom of their table. (Ideally Scotland finishing bottom would help out the Croatians the most...to which I imagine most Scots would say, "HELL NO!")

Add caption

Iceland should be good to go if they beat Norway or just do better than Slovenia. But things aren't as rosy for the NZS. A win for Slovenia should seal their spot, but if they win 2nd by drawing in Switzerland and Iceland loses it may be all for naught since most of Slovenia's points come from whaling on Cyprus and they could end up with just 10 points, and be stuck arguing goal differential against the Danes or Bulgarians.

The most likely group (other than B) to wind up at the bottom of the runner's up table is Group D with it's three way battle for survival. With a win against a resilient Estonia, Romania should be 2nd place and safely into the playoffs. A loss for Romania and a win for Hungary over hapless Moldova (pretty likely) should give them second place, 11 points and safe passage into the playoffs Romania could be even better positioned A victory for Romania should have them dancing. Turkey's got the toughest route ahead, as a win is unlikely v.s. Holland so they'd need Estonia and Moldova to win in order to finish second. Of course, doing that puts them in the same position as the Slovenians, bickering over goal differential.

Most likely we'll end up with Russia, The Ukraine, Spain and Bosnia/Herzegovina going to Brazil, and Sweden, Greece, France, England, Porugal, Croatia, Iceland and Romania with Denmark being out of the money.

Starting XI: Nerdery Engage!

If there's one thing that gets me as nerdily riled up as sports, it's books. So October is just about the best time of year for me. There's the Major League Baseball playoffs, at least one guaranteed international match day, and the announcement of the Nobel Prize in Literature.


With dozens of teams still dreaming of qualification, there's plenty for international sports/book nerds to root for in the coming weeks. Including these 11 writers, who could give geeks like me not one, but two things to go crazy about in October (along with their country of origin and the most recent Ladbrokes odds in their favor)

Note, I only went with the authors with the highest odds who come from countries that are still in the hunt for a World Cup spot

I. Peter Nadas--Hungary 7/1

The artist: At once classical and experimental, Nadas is revered throughout the literary world as positively Proustian in his depth of detail and calibre of expression. As he builds conflict and division between people in our modern world, he also finds ways to bring them together, merging into a collective vision of humanity as shown in his novels, essays AND plays.

The odds of a double: The Magical Magyars are in the driver's seat for the runner-up spot in Group D, up a point with two games to play. Unfortunately up-and-coming Romania are set to face the bottom feeders of the group (Estonia and Andorra) while Hungary opens with Holland. Still, their recent 5-1 drubbing of Estonia (while the Estonians challenged the Dutch) suggests that they should not be trifled with. The biggest problem they both face is that favorites (both in futbol and in Nobel discussions) rarely win. How good are their odds of turning the double? About as good as Congress agreeing on anything other than the fact that America is awesome.

II. Assia Djebar--Algeria 10/1

The artist: The one African and the one woman on this list, Assia Djebar is the leading voice of passionate feminism in North Africa. Her novels address that feminist philosophy by casting modern women in a world immersed in traditional gender roles. Her debut novel (La Soif or The Mischief or literally The Thirst) earned her death threats for showing a decadent westernized woman in traditional Algeria. Her later work has been less controversial, but equally adamant about the role that women ought to play in an open society.

The odds of a double: Algeria opens against Burkina Faso around the time we'll hear about the Nobel. While the Burkinabe may be the most likely debutante left in Africa, Algeria has a little more international clout and a little more poise on the biggest stages. That combined with Djebar's own clout and poise suggest that the odds of an Algerian double are around odds that a Fox News Pundit screws up 8 Arabic names in 80 seconds.

III. Amos Oz--Israel 16/1

The artist: Oz has the combo platter of great writing and serious political clout. Both in his literature and his opinionated essays for Israeli newspapers, he advocates for peace and justice throughout Israel and the West Bank.  He remains prolific both in literature and in his non-fiction.

The odds of a double: Since the same people who give out the literature award give out the peace award too, the temptation to make political statements with both awards (as with Mo Yan and Orhan Pamuk) is pretty great. Meanwhile the national Blues and Whites have a pretty steep hill to climb needing powerhouses Russia and Portugal to falter while winning against Northern Ireland and in Portugal. Despite Oz's justifiable confidence, odds are only slightly better than peace breaking out in Gaza tomorrow.

IV. Milan Kundera--Czech Republic/France 25/1

The artist: Kundera's technically from the Czech Republic, but prefers to write, live and be recognized as French. One of the most popular writers internationally (based largely on the success and affection around The Unbearable Lightness of Being), Kundera's writing lives in the beautiful mixed up world between comedy and tragedy underneath totalitarian regimes. He writes to encourage, rather than pacify the reader's imagination, and in an increasingly literal world, that's rather refreshing.

The odds of a double: It depends on which country you want to go with. The French are sure of a playoff spot (and better if Spain somehow implodes) while the Czechs need to win in Malta and Bulgaria, while Denmark and Bulgaria lose both of their matches. While Kundera rarely disappoints his fans, the French and Czechs do it on a seemingly daily basis. So I'd say the odds are about as good as late night talk show hosts not making fun of the French.

V. Jon Fosse--Norway 25/1

The artist: Never underestimate the desire of Norwegians to award other Norwegians, all that nordic humility is thrown out the window on one day of the year--hence the tonnage of scandinavian laureates. Fosse certainly has Norway in his corner. He gets to live in a resident on the grounds of the Royal Palace, and at 53, he'll get to bunk with the kings and queens of Norway while watching people marvel at his ingenious dramas.

The odds of a double: The Norwegian national side has it all within their power with two matches against Slovenia and Iceland to break into the playoff picture, but the pressure on the Nobel committee to cast a broader net (and Fosse's relative youth and likely consistent status as a contender for the award) suggests that this may not be his time. I'd venture the Norwegian odds are about as good as the odds of American Cable news pronouncing a name with one of those slashy o things correctly on their first try.

VI. William Trevor--Ireland--33/1

The artist: One of the most acclaimed writers of the modern Irish era, Trevor is a grand statesman at a time when Irish writers could use one. 18 years after Seamus Haney won his Nobel, his forerunner, Trevor may be due for his turn at the podium. At turns Gothic and Chekovian, Trevor might seem to be  an imitator of the first rate, but that undercuts his strengths and inventions as a writer, offering a variety of protagonists, a number of narrative perspectives and a truly Irish sense of tragicomedy.

The odds of a double: Trevor may get some sympathy points for Haney's recent passing, but the boys in green won't. The Irish team will need something darn near approaching a miracle to beat Germany on the road and get a major goal differential boost to pass Austria and Sweden (assuming Austria beats Sweden as they need to). Their chances of turning the double are about equal to odds of Ireland running out of Guinness.

Who wouldn't want to rule that?

VII. Javier Marias--Spain--33/1

The artist: Marias is a man who thinks in terms of split identities in an ever changing and global world. He's also apparently the King of Redonda--a small island micronation that's not really a country or a kingdom at all, it's just a place where writers sit around and write and argue over whose in charge. At just 62 he would be very young for a laureate, and hasn't done quite as much as others on the list, but is already highly regarded in European literature.

The odds of a double: Naturally Spain is going to get in, they host bottom dwelling Belarus and Georgia and a win in either of them will put them in directly. Whether or not Marias actually has a shot to win the day this time around, he may help a double soon enough. I'd say there odds are about as good as Spain getting 8 goals in two matches.

VIII. Salman Rushdie--England--40/1

The artist: Rushdie is one of the best known writers on the planet. Being threatened with a fatwa by the Ayatollah will do that for you. So will being lampooned by Seinfeld when it was in its heyday. So are the great collection of best-selling, critically acclaimed works that make him a focal point of the press every time he publishes something, anything at all. He's a master of magical realism and a truly classic writer. 

The odds of a double: Gabriel Garcia-Marquez already has the magic realism medal, Rushdie's got that "always-a-bridesmaid-never-the-bride" air about him (like John Fowles and Vladmir Nabokov before him). And if there's any greater football choke artist than England I've yet to see them. That puts their odds of pulling the double somewhere around, George RR Martin publishing two books in the same calendar year.

IX. Leonard Nolens--Belgium--50/1

The artist: Little known outside of Antwerp, Nolens is a major postmodern figure in Flemish poetry. (I know, I know...so many great Flemish poets, so little time.) He has both an excellent poetic style and an insightful selection of journal entries that chronicle the artistic process. 

The odds of a double: Belgium is pretty clearly guaranteed a world cup berth, and Nolens is just the kind of underexposed European poet who is beloved by the Nobel committee. There are many better known authors in the running for the prize, but as any football fan will tell you, it's not always the best known team that wins. So I'd say it's about as likely as a show actually earning the title of "The New  Breaking Bad" in the next few months.

X. Ismail Kadare--Albania--50/1

The artist: The bard of the Balkans, Kadare, enjoys blending his own local mythology and modern social issues (such as dangerous and despotic regimes). While he has been exiled to France for undermining socialist status quo, he remains a beloved figure even though his recent output hasn't matched his greatest accomplishments. 

The odds of a double: While Kadare (by virtue of his high reknown and other glossy wins--such as the Man Booker International award) makes a good dark horse, Albania would be a jet black horse in the darkest cave on the darkest side of the moon. A win in Cyprus is likely, but they'd also need a win over front running Switzerland and stumbles from Iceland, Slovenia and Norway...eek. Turning the Albanian double is about as likely as Steven Segal starring at Stratford on Avon.

Really looks like a crowd
pleaser, doesn't it?

XI. Peter Handke--Austria--66/1
The artist: The controversial Austrian (who has frequently defended former dictator/genocide afficianado, Slobodan Milosovic) would be an odd choice for the Nobel committee, who prefers their controversial causes to have the backing of most UN members. But he did write The Goaie's Anxiety at the Penalty Kick which uses a penalty shot as a metaphor for criminal behavior.
The odds of a double: Between Handke's controversial behavior and the fact that Austria likely needs a win on the road against a leading Swedish side, I'd say somewhere around all my students handing every assignment in on time for the rest of the year.

Of course, Haruki Murakami is the bookkeepers favorite, Joyce Carol Oates is the pop-culture favorite, and the Nobel prefers to award literally anyone but the favorite. So realistically, it's better to be a fan of the futbol teams than the writers.

Literature + Futbol = Nerdery Personified

Okay, so I love football, I even call it football even though my fellow Americans prefer to call that thing where you throw/carry the ball with your hands "football". But I also love books, and I love combining the two whenever possible.

With another round of World Cup matches right around the corner I thought I'd break down the favorites in the nerdiest way possible: through the odds on favorites to win the Nobel Prize in Literature (according to ladbrokes betting house...which places bets on everything from intellectual achievement to whether or not anyone ever reads this post....oooh, 9 Zillion to 1...I LIKE THOSE ODDS!!)

Rather than look at everyone on the list I'll suggest that the top 10 favorites may well inspire their teams to victories in the near future. (Even though #3 Mo Yan of China and #10 Adonis of Syria can't inspire their local sides to Cup qualification...what with those teams already losing and everything)

Does he wanna talk about Japan's
chances against France or Brazil

Most of the top 10 writers can already claim to support powerful teams. Top of the list is Haruki Murakami, he of the wild and stylistically invigorating 1Q84...though the Tengu Warriors have friendlies against titans France and Brazil but don't play another cup qualifier until November, you've got to like their odds against Oman as they look to move on to the Mundial.

Similar good fortune may be in the offing for Ladbrokes' other Goliath writers: #4 Alice Munro (Canada v. Cuba); #6 Bob Dylan...yes that Bob Dylan... (USA V. Antigua & Barbuda) #7 Cees Noteboom (Netherlands v. Andorra).  Heck, even #5 Peter Nadas, has to feel pretty good as his Hungary takes on Estonia...come on Estonia, you call that a couplet?

#8 Ngugi wa Thiong'o won't get to push the Harambee Stars through a qualifier (they wait 'til March to play top of their table Nigeria)...still! Kenya does have a friendly against South Africa next week. And if Thiong'o's got the momentum his team might upend the most recent African winner, J.M. Coetzee.

Pop-Quiz: is this Albanian author Ismail Kadare,
or Albanian captain Lorik Cana...I really don't know

And who knows what to expect when #9 Ismail Kadare of Albania has his nation face off with Iceland. Seriously, I don't know about Ismail Kadare or any players on either of those teams...I'm stumped.

But perhaps the biggest upset has already been prognosticated by looking at the 2nd favorite in the Ladbrokes odds: Irish poet William Trevor. Does this mean that the Irish will spring an upset on Germany in Dublin this Friday? (Especially since the Germans don't have anybody on Ladbrokes list?) Probably not...but hey! If I can't make wild conjectures here, where can I make them? Put it down! Ireland over Gemrany this Friday.

Blame it on the Grey

Perhaps most importantly...Ladbrokes longest of longshots this year is Fifty Shades of Grey author EL James whose English heritage may destroy the Three Lions if she wins and thereby uses up all their momentum against San Marino...yes. I hereby proclaim that if EL James wins the Nobel Prize in Literature (against 500/1 odds), then San Marino should definitely take the win against England (they're currently 400/1 according to Ladbrokes).

GO SAN MARINO!!