Shooting From the Hip: The Western Hemisphere (CONCAF/CONMEBOL)

With this summer's confederation cups wrapped up, International competition is about ready to refocus on qualification for the 2018 World Cup. Most people won't pay much attention to these matches for another two years...but those people aren't crazy Montanans (thankfully, or I'd have no niche market at all).

Since the qualifying draws were held two weeks ago in Russia, I've been positively deliberate in creating these predictions (oh, who am I kidding, I made the predictions on the day and only just took the time to write it).

We'll start our predictions in the Western Hemisphere with predictions for rounds three and four of CONCACAF (which will be wrapped up next year) and the single round of CONMEBOL (which won't end until the fall of 2017).

CONCACAF ROUND 3

August 31st-September 15 2015

Matches:

Curacao V. El Salvador

Canada V. Belize

Grenada V. Haiti

Jamaica V. Nicaragua

St. Vincent and the Grenadines V. Aruba

Antigua and Barbuda V. Guatemala

The Favorites:

In CONCACAF the safest way to predict things is to count on the higher ranked teams moving on, chalk talks in North America, with the lone possible exception at matches in Central America.  Haiti's recent form (including a game performance against the US and a draw against China--in China) has served them well enough to make them a heavy favorite over Grenada, and Jamaica's Gold Cup Silver Medal and Caribbean Cup victory certainly gives them momentum over Nicaragua. This draw also plays to those groups with Guatemala, El Salvador and Canada all facing minnows both of size and of history.

Some would say I cheer for McCaulay
and Belize because I like to mock Canada...
those people are right.

The Darkhorses: The most prolific scorer in recent CONCACAF qualifier history is Deon McCaulay who Minnesota fans may know best from a fourteen cap, three goal performance with the Atlanta Silverbacks last year. His 11 goals made him a co-golden boot winner from qualification alongside little known strikers Luis Suarez and Robin Van Persie. Some would point out that this is more a reflection of the paucity of CONCACAF defenses and the lack of a second option in Belize, but the truth is somewhat in between as McCaulay is indeed a force up top and a key difference maker for the Jaguars, even if it is about to set him up against a stout Canadian defense.

The only oddball match up is between underwhelming sides from St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Aruba where the "Vincy Heat" ceded 6 goals and needed away goals to pass Guyana and after a year off the field, Aruba came up goalless in two matches against Barbados, relying on Barbados disqualifying themselves to advance.

Qualifiers

El Salvador; Belize; Haiti; Jamaica; St. Vincent; Guatemala

CONCAF ROUND 4

November 2015-September 2016

Top Two Teams from Each Group Qualify for the Hexagon

GROUP A: Mexico, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize

Never gets old...unless you're the
Mexican FA

Favorites: Despite the run-of-the-mill (by team Mexico standards) coaching drama, selection drama and performance anxiety, El Tri is still a team to beat especially within CONCACAF. The days of Giovanni Dos Santos and Javier Hernandez as the heralds of a supposed "Golden Generation" have faded, but they still represent some of the youngest talent on a veteran Mexico squad. As ever, the only thing that can get in Mexico's way, is Mexico. 

Dark Horse: Though they are often the chosen whipping boys for beefier sides in North and South America, El Salvador boasts a young and growing squad that continues to cut its teeth in foreign leagues. My fellow Minnesotans may recognize Midfielders Dustin Corea (Edmonton), Richard Menjivar (Tampa Bay) and 24-year-old captain Andres Flores (New York Cosmos). "La Selecta" may be peaking at just the right time, particularly with a mishmash of a Honduras squad that has been erratic and best and dismal at worst since their qualification for last June's World Cup.

GROUP B: Costa Rica, Panama, Haiti, Jamaica

Favorite: Los Ticos set the world on fire with their quarterfinal appearance last summer, and nearly set themselves on fire to protest the match fixy unfortunate refereeing in their quarterfinal against Mexico. Truth be told the last three months have not been kind to Costa Rica, with scuffles against Panama, Colombia and Spain, and lackluster draws against Mexico, Jamaica and El Salvador.  Still, the talent and recent success of the team makes them the team to beat in Group B.

Dark Horse: It's a shame really, because I can talk myself into all three of the other squads cruising through qualification in Group C and having a better than average chance in Group A. While I've talked before about Jamaica's defense being its new found key to success (a 370 minute goalless stretch during the Gold Cup was instrumental in their silver medal), and though Haiti is an intriguing squad of international vagabonds (two play in NASL, two in India, and two in Cyprus), I think it's worth noting the perennially, unregarded Panama squad that earned its third place finish at the 2015 Gold Cup--and maybe even more thanks to the aforementioned idiotic questionable refereeing of any game Mexico played in. In Panama's last six confederation tournaments they've made the semis in five and they had the pole position for World Cup Qualifying in 2013 until a miraculous bicycle kick pushed Mexico on. Only one of those three teams will hit the Hexagon, and until proven otherwise I think it's Panama.

The Panamaian Version of Morten Andersen

GROUP C: USA, Trinidad and Tobago, St Vincent/Grenadines, Guatemala

Favorite: U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A! Seriously, who cares if we can't figure out a back line, create consistent service or find a second goal scoring option behind an aging Clint Dempsey, we're America dad blast it and we will win this group!! U-S-A!! U-S-A!! Klinsmann for Chancellor!!

Also, a Guatemala win is a win for
70s FA logos!

Dark Horse: Despite the Soca Warriors recent offensive outburst (built largely through veteran striker Kenwyne Jones) their swings in play (they lost to Curacao in May but won their Gold Cup group), make them an ideal target for an upset minded squad. Enter Guatemala (La Furia Azul) who have balanced veteran strikers with a young and energetic midfield many of whom play together at CSD Comunicaciones, the dominant force in the Guatemalan league. 

HEXAGON QUALIFIERS: Mexico, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama, USA, Guatemala

CONMEBOL

September 4th, 2015-October 10th 2017

South America does it simply: All ten teams play each other in a standard round-robin league style. The top four advance, fifth place takes on Oceania's best team (*HINT* IT'S NEW ZEALAND!) for a play-in (*HINT* THE SOUTH AMERICAN TEAM IS GOING TO SUCCEED!!)

Favorites: There's little point in rehashing how dominant Argentina has become, nor how quietly consistent Chile is and how ineffably promising Colombia appears. Those three squads, even with two years and 18 matches to play, look like easy qualifiers. 

Yes, Enner, I'm excited about your chances too!

Dark Horse: The far bigger drama is whether any team can snipe a spot from the aging giants of the South American game: Brazil and Uruguay. While Dunga's Brazil has been a Bizarro-World version of the Selacao that the world came to know and fear (and even the methodical branding machine that made Ronaldo's crew so ubiquitous), Uruguay has seen their recent success pull a quiet nucleus farther apart on the world stage making reunions and consistency difficult. The recent Copa America showed just how easily local minnows can outperform their higher profile neighbors, with Paraguay, Bolivia and Peru each offering a surprise. But CONMEBOL qualifying isn't a sprint, it's a marathon, and the only squad that looks equipped at that task (despite their own lackluster performance in Chile this summer) is Ecuador. With both big game experience and a habit of consistently seeking out tougher competition for the next generation to compete with, Los Amarillos have a solid chance to surprise, particularly if players like Jonathan Gonzalez and Carlos Gruezo see greater opportunities in the upper levels of foreign leagues to build their confidence with the corps of a national team based in country.

PREDICTED AUTO QUALIFIERS: Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Brazil

PLAY-OFF TEAM: Ecuador

3 On/3 Off: Copa Centramericano

Just because the World Cup is approximately 9 Million Years Away (Ed: Just 3 years and 9 months Captain Hyperbole), doesn't mean that international soccer is irrelevant. Sure, fans of the big names and star-power will tune in to league matches at a much higher rate than those die-hards in remote villages who tune in to fuzzy pictures on a rare satellite dish.

But as this is a "World Cup" Hooligan's website we'll keep you abreast of all the big competitions, and even some of the small ones. Starting with the recently concluded Copa Centramericano (Central American Cup) held in early September in the US (or rather: DC, Dallas, Houston and LA).

What are our big takeaways, well, that's what 3 On/3 Off is for.

Pretty good way to wrap up the summer

ON: Costa Rica's Domination
It's Los Ticos world in North America right now and the rest of us are just playing with it. The tournament might have been a mere formality after the quarter finalists took on a set of squads with an average rank of 117 in the world. Bryan Ruiz and Celso Borges never stopped, and Costa Rica can now gladly add $60,000 to their budgets thanks to their triumph (AND punch their ticket for the 100th anniversary of the Copa America in 2016...starring all of South America and the top 6 squads in North America).
OFF: Costa Rica's DOMINATION
Champions though they are, Costa Rica didn't exactly mow down the competition like Sonny Corleone at a tollway booth. It took 2 goals in the final ten minutes to scrape a draw against a very game Panama, and another comeback after ceding a penalty to Carlos Ruiz of Guatemala to gain the trophy. Los Ticos are good, no doubt about it...but maybe not that good (at least, not without Keylor Navas)

Who's your Pappa?

ON: Marco Pappa (Guatemala)
Case in point for Costa Rica's tempered optimism is Marco Pappa, who netted a pair of braces against Honduras and El Salvador (he didn't even pick on lowly Belize) en route to winning the golden ball and the golden boot for the tournament. That hardware will be fun to flaunt at Sounders teammates Clint Dempsey and DeAndre Yedlin.
OFF: Honduras 
Honduras takes home the fuzziest lollipop from the cup. Finishing fifth means they weren't the worst squad out there, but they certainly didn't look like the World Cup entrant from earlier this year (even when that World Cup Entrant was lackluster). Their only goals and points of the group stage came off of own goals by Belize (more on them in a minute) and the team didn't actually score until first half stoppage time against Nicaragua. So, yes, technically they are the fifth best team. Just like "technically" Honduras is still a country and not a Narco-Traffickers Jamberoo

ON: Panama Keeper Jaime Penedo
It won't come as a galloping shock to any Panamanians, but Jaime Penedo is pretty darn good. After a century of caps for Los Canaleros, he has now three sets of Golden Gloves to show off, and the set from the Copa Centramericano is decidedly the shabbiest of the lot (the other two come from Gold Cups). Aside from an ugly final 10 minutes against Costa Rica, Penedo was an absolute fortress for Panama en route to third place and a special spot in the Centennial Copa America.

Deon can't do it all himself boys

OFF: Belize Defense
I'm fond of Belize, I really am. The beautiful beaches, the wonderful weather, the English speaking, it's all great...even if I've never been. I'd love to see Belize do well in their competitions, if only so I could somehow, someway claim to a Belizean soccer expert and get myself a trip to Belize. But sadly, it's not going to happen if the Copa Centramericano sets the tone. Belize's defenders scored two own goals against Honduras that more or less sealed their fate before half-time. Deon McCauley did score for Belize (rather than against them)...but that's not a great statistic. 3 Times Belize hit the net...and twice it was their own...oof.

Starting XI: Federation Badges, We'll Miss Next Summer

In our Happy Trails series we've profiled the teams who won't be at next summer's world cup, and in the process highlighted a few awesome federation logos of teams that didn't make the grade. In that spirit here's a special recognition for the well designed, if not the terribly talented.

I. Pakistan--I'm not sure if it's the flaming soccerball or...wait...no...it's definitely the flaming soccer ball. Pakistan's badge looks like something that would be batted around an MLS expansion team office in the late 90s. Only better because they all hold on to it.

II. Anguila--When Anguila was ousted I said that I shared the mourning of Three Dolphins supporters, not least because they seemed to have captured Flipper in mid-flip. I have expect the subtitle of this badge to be "So Long, and Thanks for All the Futbol"

III. Palestine--The Palestinian national side isn't so much a nation and isn't so much a side as it is a collection of people with Palestinian heritage who take time out of their doctoring, lawyering and all around livelihoods to play against the big boys of Asian futbol. Hopefully, some day, this logo is an aspirational target for young athletes in the disputed territory--the swooping arcs seem enticing enough to me.

IV. Azerbaijan--Similar to the Pakistani logo, I appreciate a little bit of the "ball on fire" motif. But it's nice that the Azerbaijani powers that be chose to have the ball falling rather than soaring, and allowed the flames to match the national flag.

V. Solomon Islands--The first of two circa 70's era emblems, The Solomon islands manage to work in the colors of the flag in a new and intriguing way while still having an ample amount of style (between the stripes, the stars, and the stylistic "S") it looks a little like a Cable News logo (assuming that all cable news was run out of the Solomon Islands)

VI. Czech Republic--National FA emblems are about the last vestige of the "animal rampant" style that dominates so may family crests. What's great about the lion for the Czech logo is both the double tail and heavy mane as well as the color palette mixing and matching red white and blue (even if it does skew a little too close to Pepsi for copy right lawyers.

VII. Dominican Republic--Speaking of the Red, White and Blue, here's another play on those colors from the Caribbean. Baseball is king in the Dominican, but soccer continues to make inroads. The structure of the FA's logo is unlike almost anything else out there. The cup looks aspirational (even if the "D" seems to have been an after thought), and the island outline in the middle of the ball is a nice way to make clear who is playing here.

VIII. Romania--One of the more recent eliminations, I'm a big fan of the Romanian spinning wheel of death motif. The whirling colors make for a nice piece of perspective, as if there's an entire universe spinning around the ball (something the New York Cosmos also use to great effect). The simple primary colors of the national flag, and the language surrounding the claim are perfect for a classic, timeless look.

IX. Benin--The second 70s era logo, Benin's choice uses the ball more pointedly than the others did, turning it into a "b" for "Federation Beninoise". I said when they were eliminated that it looked like a soccer version of the Montreal Expos, or Milwaukee Breweres logo, something that both covered the letters of the location and team and also evoked the sport (with gloves and balls implied in both)

X. Guatemala--The most decidedly postmodern of all the federation logos, Guatemala has a sweeping set of arcs that seem to be at once a parrot, a ball, a keeper mid-savea gigantic eyeball, or god knows what. Whatever it is, it definitely stands out and signifies that Guatemala is a serious country...for artistes nouveau.

XI. Senegal--Finally there's this from Senegal. Like Guatemala they eschewed the standard issue "letters and a ball" set up, for an implied ball that uses both national flag, the team mascot (a lion) and
a subtle connection to the African continent. It look slightly like an elementary art project, but that just reflects how soccer unites everyone and infuses a childlike joy.

So there you have it, the style champs we'll be rooting for on the Road to Russia

Happy Trails 129-124: Exit the Hexagon...

It's not quite like losing a bout in Ultimate Fighter, but the losers we discuss here might feel just as battered, bruised and beaten. Left in the lurch by grim misfortune, they have to head back to the drawing board and dream of four years from now when they might redeem themselves.

But enough about the Republican party, let's talk about the teams that bowed out of CONCACAF Qualifying in the penultimate group stage. (You know...five months ago when I meant to publish this but apparently didn't.) Failing to make the final hexagonal hurdle is no great shame (the U.S. flirted with that possibility up until their final match), but still that means no trip to Brazil, no fame and fortune, no Vanity Fair cover shoot, just quiet preparation for going to Russia...ugh.

So let's sound a solemn samba for the departed (before starting a joyous Livenka polka for their next chance!)

129: Goodbye Guyana
Why they lost: As we outlined in the WIBD edition for the second round, the Golden Jaguars simply don't have the experience or talent on the roster to make themselves a viable contender in North America.

What we'll miss: Other than sincere satisfaction of seeing a little ol' minnow elevate themselves to the level of a regional spoiler? Just saying the nickname "Golden Jaguars" as often as possible.

128: And we'll see you soon Antigua and Barbuda

Why they lost: Like Guyana, A & B got a single point out of six matches. Facing off against recent Cup qualifiers from Jamaica and the US probably wasn't a tremendous help either.

What we'll miss: There's a serious boom of Antiguans, Barbudans and Antinguan/Barbudans popping up on the rosters of English clubs: Nottingham Forrest, Oxford United, Reading, Motherwell and Wycombe. Plus it'd be cool to see a match in the glorious Cricket Castle of Sir Vivian Richards Stadium


127: Adios Cuba

Why they lost: After FIFA set Cuba up with a bye into round three, the "Lions of the Caribbean" acted much more like pussy cats than kings of the jungle (or tropical sea...or whatever). It didn't help that their players have a nasty habit of seeking asylum whenever they get a breathe of fresh air on foreign soil.

What we'll miss: Cuban pulled pork sandwhiches...oh wait! This is America, we can get those anytime!! (Seriously though...you can't go wrong with a good [or bad] Castro joke)


126: Hasta luego El Salvador

Why they lost: Despite a rather stellar legacy as a Central American soccer state, El Salvador couldn't get over the hump of the more recent continental darlings Costa Rica or true goliath Mexico

What we'll miss: The chance for a touching homage to Forward and international team lynchpin Rudis Corrales who suffered a stroke in April 2012 and would have made for a great angle on the up-and-coming Salvadorans.


125: Farewell/Adieu Canada

Proof that Cuba's better than Canda
at pork products.

Why they lost: Finishing just a point short of both Honduras and Panama, the Canucks have to be grimacing and the lost chance to get a win at home against Honduras (a result made all the more bitter by a subsequent 8-1 drumming in San Pedro Sula).

What we'll miss: Are you serious...there aren't enough jokes about the other countries in the world COMBINED to make up for the mockery we can make of Canada! Like this one: Hey Canada is that Bacon or are you just looking at Ham through Maple Syrup goggles? [crickets chirp]


124: Ciudata Guatemala

Why they lost: Two goals. Two gol' durn goals! That's all that stood between Guatemala and a berth in the next round. If they'd just given up two fewer goals, or scored two more (or split the dang difference for all I care). A 3-1 win at home versus Jamaica? A 3-2 loss against the US? And voila...problem solved!

What we'll miss: Fun times with the Guatemalan immigrant community here in Minnesota, plus the super avant-garde federation logo which win our Happy Trails logo contest for this round.