Shooting From the Hip: The Western Hemisphere (CONCAF/CONMEBOL)

With this summer's confederation cups wrapped up, International competition is about ready to refocus on qualification for the 2018 World Cup. Most people won't pay much attention to these matches for another two years...but those people aren't crazy Montanans (thankfully, or I'd have no niche market at all).

Since the qualifying draws were held two weeks ago in Russia, I've been positively deliberate in creating these predictions (oh, who am I kidding, I made the predictions on the day and only just took the time to write it).

We'll start our predictions in the Western Hemisphere with predictions for rounds three and four of CONCACAF (which will be wrapped up next year) and the single round of CONMEBOL (which won't end until the fall of 2017).

CONCACAF ROUND 3

August 31st-September 15 2015

Matches:

Curacao V. El Salvador

Canada V. Belize

Grenada V. Haiti

Jamaica V. Nicaragua

St. Vincent and the Grenadines V. Aruba

Antigua and Barbuda V. Guatemala

The Favorites:

In CONCACAF the safest way to predict things is to count on the higher ranked teams moving on, chalk talks in North America, with the lone possible exception at matches in Central America.  Haiti's recent form (including a game performance against the US and a draw against China--in China) has served them well enough to make them a heavy favorite over Grenada, and Jamaica's Gold Cup Silver Medal and Caribbean Cup victory certainly gives them momentum over Nicaragua. This draw also plays to those groups with Guatemala, El Salvador and Canada all facing minnows both of size and of history.

Some would say I cheer for McCaulay
and Belize because I like to mock Canada...
those people are right.

The Darkhorses: The most prolific scorer in recent CONCACAF qualifier history is Deon McCaulay who Minnesota fans may know best from a fourteen cap, three goal performance with the Atlanta Silverbacks last year. His 11 goals made him a co-golden boot winner from qualification alongside little known strikers Luis Suarez and Robin Van Persie. Some would point out that this is more a reflection of the paucity of CONCACAF defenses and the lack of a second option in Belize, but the truth is somewhat in between as McCaulay is indeed a force up top and a key difference maker for the Jaguars, even if it is about to set him up against a stout Canadian defense.

The only oddball match up is between underwhelming sides from St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Aruba where the "Vincy Heat" ceded 6 goals and needed away goals to pass Guyana and after a year off the field, Aruba came up goalless in two matches against Barbados, relying on Barbados disqualifying themselves to advance.

Qualifiers

El Salvador; Belize; Haiti; Jamaica; St. Vincent; Guatemala

CONCAF ROUND 4

November 2015-September 2016

Top Two Teams from Each Group Qualify for the Hexagon

GROUP A: Mexico, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize

Never gets old...unless you're the
Mexican FA

Favorites: Despite the run-of-the-mill (by team Mexico standards) coaching drama, selection drama and performance anxiety, El Tri is still a team to beat especially within CONCACAF. The days of Giovanni Dos Santos and Javier Hernandez as the heralds of a supposed "Golden Generation" have faded, but they still represent some of the youngest talent on a veteran Mexico squad. As ever, the only thing that can get in Mexico's way, is Mexico. 

Dark Horse: Though they are often the chosen whipping boys for beefier sides in North and South America, El Salvador boasts a young and growing squad that continues to cut its teeth in foreign leagues. My fellow Minnesotans may recognize Midfielders Dustin Corea (Edmonton), Richard Menjivar (Tampa Bay) and 24-year-old captain Andres Flores (New York Cosmos). "La Selecta" may be peaking at just the right time, particularly with a mishmash of a Honduras squad that has been erratic and best and dismal at worst since their qualification for last June's World Cup.

GROUP B: Costa Rica, Panama, Haiti, Jamaica

Favorite: Los Ticos set the world on fire with their quarterfinal appearance last summer, and nearly set themselves on fire to protest the match fixy unfortunate refereeing in their quarterfinal against Mexico. Truth be told the last three months have not been kind to Costa Rica, with scuffles against Panama, Colombia and Spain, and lackluster draws against Mexico, Jamaica and El Salvador.  Still, the talent and recent success of the team makes them the team to beat in Group B.

Dark Horse: It's a shame really, because I can talk myself into all three of the other squads cruising through qualification in Group C and having a better than average chance in Group A. While I've talked before about Jamaica's defense being its new found key to success (a 370 minute goalless stretch during the Gold Cup was instrumental in their silver medal), and though Haiti is an intriguing squad of international vagabonds (two play in NASL, two in India, and two in Cyprus), I think it's worth noting the perennially, unregarded Panama squad that earned its third place finish at the 2015 Gold Cup--and maybe even more thanks to the aforementioned idiotic questionable refereeing of any game Mexico played in. In Panama's last six confederation tournaments they've made the semis in five and they had the pole position for World Cup Qualifying in 2013 until a miraculous bicycle kick pushed Mexico on. Only one of those three teams will hit the Hexagon, and until proven otherwise I think it's Panama.

The Panamaian Version of Morten Andersen

GROUP C: USA, Trinidad and Tobago, St Vincent/Grenadines, Guatemala

Favorite: U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A! Seriously, who cares if we can't figure out a back line, create consistent service or find a second goal scoring option behind an aging Clint Dempsey, we're America dad blast it and we will win this group!! U-S-A!! U-S-A!! Klinsmann for Chancellor!!

Also, a Guatemala win is a win for
70s FA logos!

Dark Horse: Despite the Soca Warriors recent offensive outburst (built largely through veteran striker Kenwyne Jones) their swings in play (they lost to Curacao in May but won their Gold Cup group), make them an ideal target for an upset minded squad. Enter Guatemala (La Furia Azul) who have balanced veteran strikers with a young and energetic midfield many of whom play together at CSD Comunicaciones, the dominant force in the Guatemalan league. 

HEXAGON QUALIFIERS: Mexico, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama, USA, Guatemala

CONMEBOL

September 4th, 2015-October 10th 2017

South America does it simply: All ten teams play each other in a standard round-robin league style. The top four advance, fifth place takes on Oceania's best team (*HINT* IT'S NEW ZEALAND!) for a play-in (*HINT* THE SOUTH AMERICAN TEAM IS GOING TO SUCCEED!!)

Favorites: There's little point in rehashing how dominant Argentina has become, nor how quietly consistent Chile is and how ineffably promising Colombia appears. Those three squads, even with two years and 18 matches to play, look like easy qualifiers. 

Yes, Enner, I'm excited about your chances too!

Dark Horse: The far bigger drama is whether any team can snipe a spot from the aging giants of the South American game: Brazil and Uruguay. While Dunga's Brazil has been a Bizarro-World version of the Selacao that the world came to know and fear (and even the methodical branding machine that made Ronaldo's crew so ubiquitous), Uruguay has seen their recent success pull a quiet nucleus farther apart on the world stage making reunions and consistency difficult. The recent Copa America showed just how easily local minnows can outperform their higher profile neighbors, with Paraguay, Bolivia and Peru each offering a surprise. But CONMEBOL qualifying isn't a sprint, it's a marathon, and the only squad that looks equipped at that task (despite their own lackluster performance in Chile this summer) is Ecuador. With both big game experience and a habit of consistently seeking out tougher competition for the next generation to compete with, Los Amarillos have a solid chance to surprise, particularly if players like Jonathan Gonzalez and Carlos Gruezo see greater opportunities in the upper levels of foreign leagues to build their confidence with the corps of a national team based in country.

PREDICTED AUTO QUALIFIERS: Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Brazil

PLAY-OFF TEAM: Ecuador

Meet the Team: Uruguay

Nickname: Uruguay set the tone for all nicknames going with the simplicity of the kit color: La Celeste--"The Sky Blue"


Star: No doubt about it, Luis Suárez is the star of the show, having passed his old running mate Diego Forlan to be the all time leading goal scorer in Uruguay's history (in 30 matches less than it took Forlan). Of course, he's also something of a nut job--what with the whole berating rivals, biting people's ears, and stymying other teams by playing goalkeeper for the hell of it.

Hip-Star: While I normally lean towards younger players you've never heard of, but given the tonnage of press that surrounds the strikers and Champions' League squads, it seems right to nod to Diego Lugano the veteran captain of the team, and a man who was just unceremoniously dumped by West Bromwich Albion earlier this month. Whatever man, his new stuff is totally underrated.

X-Factor: For all the talent and potential of Uruguay, there's a whole lot of inconsistency in the team too. They scraped the fifth place spot into the playoff against Jordan, and couldn't muster any wins against Cup bound teams away from home. Add in Suarez's tendency to exit early, and you may have the next victim of the Semi-final curse (See Turkey, Croatia, Sweden).

Still stinging Brazil

Coach: Óscar Wáshington Tabárez (No idea why he has the middle name Washington) has a smuch experience with his team as anyone. Having led the way through two entire cups, a semi-final spot and a Copa America victory, he has earned the title of "el maestro"--the primary school teaching helped too.


History: Sure it was over 50 years ago, but Uruguay are twice champions, including the last time the cup was held in Brazil. Of course that was when manager Tabárez was three years old...so they can't exactly draw on past experiences to help the cause.

Food: While Uruguay thrives on adopting popular flavors from other places in the world, most of them have already gotten a shout out in these posts. But not the Armenian contingent--so congrats Armenia, your Lahmajun stands in for Uruguay's food.

Dictator, or Bond Villian Minion?

Fool: The Economist recently named Uruguay, "Country of the Year"for 2013, which means we have to dredge up national history--fortunately there's martial law enforcing, torture endorsing, ex-president Aparicio Méndez. Good ol' Aparicio was also president during back to back failed World Cup Qualification rounds.

Best Case: Suárez stakes his claim to being the best striker in the world--fighting off Balotelli and Rooney in the group stage, tops Drogba in the second round, Villa in the Quarters, Messi in the semis and the Neymar in the finals for the third title.

Worst Case: Suárez draws a red card in the first match against Costa Rica, and Forlan's age catches up to him as they settle for a draw. Without him the team is no match for England, and the aging defense is even more exploited by Italy as they crash out in an embarrassing 4th place.

My prediction: Congratulations Uruguay, despite the educator's bond with El Maestro, you've passed Italy on the list of teams I actively root against. Sure it's spiteful and stupid, but so help me, that's the man I am. I'll grudgingly grant you a trio of draws as an exhausted Suárez falters in the heat...but that can hang you just as well as anything else. 3rd Place--3 points

Added Bonus: Let's close out the World Cup of Hip-Hop with an independent voice: MC Jo with "Vos y Yo"

Meet the Team: Ecuador

Nickname: In a shot across the bow to Mexico, Ecuador also wants to be known as "The Tricolor", though they will go by La Tri rather than "El Tri...allow your gender presumptions to run wild.


Star: Streaking down a wing can get you thrown out of a stuffy museum, or it can get you the praise of a nation and a contract with Manchester United. Fortunately, Antonio Valencia chose the socially acceptable one. As Ecuador's captain, he'll slightly less pressure than fans of the Red Devils can pour on, hopefully leading to both effective creation and potential finishing.

Hip-Star: We'll go with the Barcelona defender, Juan Carlos Paredes...what's that? You haven't seen him in any Barcelona matches? Oh, I'm sorry, I mean the defender at Barcelona in Guayquil, Ecuador. I'm sorry, I thought you said you were a football fan. Anyway, he's one of the most experienced Ecuadoran defenders and will be responsible for shutting down strikers from Switzerland and France. And a defender defends the goals and goals can win you the match, okay?

Mile high is for suckers

X-Factor: Altitude is always in Ecuador's favor when they play at home in lofty Quito (the highest national stadium in the world), but down on the flats of Brasilia, Curtiba and Rio they'll need to rely on the inspirational model of striker Christian Bénitez, who died in a car accident during qualification (a death that one of my students sincerely believes occurred to stop little Ecuador from stealing the thunder of the bigger more renowned South American powers).

Coach: Reinaldo Rivera is another coach to graduate from the Colombian school of coaching development, and like his fellow coach Jorge Pinto (of Costa Rica), he's finding greater success abroad than at home. Moving up from not qualifying with Colombia, to qualifying with Honduras (also drawn into Group E) to being a favored side in Ecuador.

History: Quito hasn't always been the monumental home field advantage it has become. Once upon a time, Ecuador was one of the whipping boys of South American soccer, waiting until 2002 to book a ticket, and fought their way through a tough Group A in 2006 to get the country's first (and so far only) trip to the knock out rounds.

Food: While Ecuadorian meals tend to revolve around two courses (the soup and the meat). And while the heat of the summer months might be intimidating, we're hoping to find a solid recipe for caldo de leche (or creamy vegetable soup).

Fool: While president Rafael Correa has has some success and economic growth without succumbing to the South American tendencies for Chavism, he also has a tendency to crack down on dissenting journalists and invent conspiracy theories about US destablization around public protests.

Best Case: Valencia's pace combined with motivated striker corps attempting to replace the loss of Bénitez push Ecuador past the lackluster European Swiss and French. Uruguay admits to having the striker killed and punishes themselves by losing all their matches.

Worst Case: Brazil isn't Ecuador (meaning the pitch doesn't play to their strengths), and Ecuador isn't Brazil (meaning the team isn't nearly as talented as their powerful neighbor). They fold up shop quickly against the Europeans, and end up drawing with also rans Honduras. Uruguay laughs maniacally and plots another "accident" for Valencia.

My prediction: Setting aside all the conspiracy theorizing, Ecuador could well qualify for the next round from this group. It will come down to how much they can get out of their matches against Switzerland and France. While they might get six from them in Quito, in Brazil one's the most they can manage (3rd place in group--4 points)

Added Bonus: In case anyone wonders if you can effectively combine Pan Flute and rap music, here's Las Nin with "Maki Purarishan"

Meet the Team: Colombia

At least they don't have a
furry farmer for kids to hug

Nickname: Los Cafeteros (or "The Coffee Growers) is a nice nod to the regional industry and a good sight better than "Los Cocaíneros"

Star: One of the slightly lesser known strikers of doom at this year's cup is still tremendously talented and certainly worth keeping an eye on. Radamel Falcao doesn't have the endorsement deals or international press scrum that Messers Rooney, Messi, Ronaldo or Balotelli do, but he has just as much of a nose for the net as anyone else. A knee injury hasn't kept him off initial lists of players, but may not let him shine as he had expected to.

Hip-Star: More important than the strikers in all of Colombia's play are the creators, and more important than the hottest young star in Colombian midfield (James Rodriguez) is his running mate and more forward moving mid Juan Guillermo Cuadrado. So...obviously he's the real star...assuming you aren't a sheep who just cheers for goals...obviously.

X-Factor: There are four players over 30 on the potential list of players for this year's cup, which means that age will matter--even if it's not in the way we usually think it will. Colombia's roster all has international experience and have been bound together by their coach and federation for a good while, but the flip side of youthful optimism is overconfidence; the flip of energy is panic. Colombia's young and will make mistakes...whether or not they can afford them is another matter.

They really captured the knee

Coach: José Pékerman is a rarity, a South American who is coaching a great team, but isn't coaching his own national squad. After a solid, though not spectacular run at the 2006 Cup with his home country of Argentina, he went off for more adventures and challenges. Colombia boasted the challenge of a decade long drought, and and adventurous squad. The results have been solid as Pékerman guided Colombia to one of the top 8 seeds in this year's cup.

History: It's been a long time coming for Colombia, sixteen years after their last trip they're coming back and in great form. Of course, this team is a far cry from their early 90s predecessors, particularly because no one can match either the flair nor the hair of their most capped player: Carlos Valderamma


Food: In the mood for a Colombian meal that you can cook faster than most of the Colombian team can run down the pitch? We recommend the local street food of choice: arepas emparedado  (or corn flour flatbread sandwich)--And hey, if we have a Merguez dog for Algeria, this looks like a great way to get our chorizo fix.

Fool: There have been strong signs of a cessation of hostilities between the government and rebel groups throughout the country's jungle based drug runners. But somewhere out there Victor Gonzalez Sierra of the Black Eagles is still serving his stereotypical shenanigans for goofy pundits like me.

Best Case: Falcao makes it all the way back, the defense shores up its question marks, and Colombia plays every bit as well as people expect, upending Brazil in the quarterfinals and getting all the way to the finals against Spain.

Worst Case: Falcao doesn't make it back, the defense cracks so much the midfield starts hopping around to avoid breaking their mothers' backs. And a faster Japan, fiercer Ivory Coast and funkier Greece send them crashing out.

My prediction: Good as Colombia is, I can definitely see them being surprised by the pace and passing acumen in a tougher group than you might expect. They can get through, but may have to rely on goal differential. But I still see them into the quarterfinals topping Italy after their first round faltering before falling to Spain.

Added Bonus! The biggest band in recent Colombian hip-hop history joins our Hip Hop World Cup. ChocoQuibTown with "Donde Vengo Yo"

Meet the Team: Chile

Nickname: Chile goes by "El Rojo" or "The Red One"--which isn't nearly as intimidating as Spain's "La Furia Roja" (The red fury), but before you mock, remember, Cincinatti has the same name for their baseball team.

Star: Since South America boasts five great teams at this cup, and Chile is only the fourth best of those, it's not surprising that few have noted the promise of Arturo Vidal. With five goals to his name in qualifying a parcel of created chances, he's been invaluable in making Chile a genuine darkhorse in the tournament.

Gary Medel is posing with a
 peace sign ironically

Hip-Star: Roll up your flannel sleeves in homage to the hard working, high flying, pitbull defender Gary Medel. Far from the spotlights of Juventus and Barcelona, Medel has plied his trade anywhere that will have him, working his way from Chile, to Brazil, to Spain and all the way to Cardiff City, where he made a strong showing even in a weak season for the Welsh side. Plus...look at his instagram...the man's obviously three clicks from posting his top 10 jelly crullers you've never heard of.

X-Factor: Chile's got one phenomenal advantage in their group stage: Spain and Holland Play First. Since they're an obvious favorite against poor old Australia, that match will go a long way to determining their strategy and plan for the rest of the cup. If Spain wins, they shoot for a draw in the second match and hit Holland hard in the last match. If Holland wins, they try to push the advantage against Spain and split the difference with Holland. If the Europeans draw, they just focus on getting draws themselves and hope goal difference puts them top.

Coach: Jorge Sampaoli has made a huge difference for the national side. Bringing the calming influence he brought to club side Universidad de Chile to the world stage. Helping the little Chilean side win the Copa Sudamerica was a great set up for the rush to qualify and the race for the title

History: After a early 21st Century lull, Chile's back in the upset oriented mindset that saw them hit the round of 16 both in France '98 and South Africa '10. They came second to Spain in that group and know how to match up with their fellow reds when need be.


Food: How about a food as versatile as the Chilean team itself? The sopapilla can be sweet or savory, plain, or pumpkin, served with ice cream/chocolate/icing or chili sauce/mustard

Fool: Four consecutive free and fair elections? Come on Chile We need someone to mock! Oh, wait, I know...Lucía Pinochet daughter of the repressive dictator, councilwoman for a local government, she'll do nicely (I'm sure she had a lovely relationship with her dad, but we need a punk, and given Pinochet's fondness for medals everywhere, she'll do nicely)

Best Case: With plenty of talent and fewer expectations, Chile surprises both Holland and Spain to go first in the group, thereby avoiding their eternal bugaboo Brazil in the second round and taking their run to a shocking semi-final spot--their first since hosting in 1962.

Worst Case: Good as they are, Chile may be a little overwhelmed by their group. Overlooking Australia would be a mistake--and one they might pay for by finishing last.

My prediction: La Rojo's sneaky threat to the established order of Group B is 100% serious. If they can spring a shock on the Dutch in the last match (and I think they can) they should get the second round, it's a shame that they always seem to draw Brazil in that first knock-out stage. 2nd Round (2nd in Group--6 points)

Added Bonus: Chiles' contribution to our World Cup of Hip-Hop? Guerillero Okulto's "FARO Tláhauc"--on MC name alone he's a winner.

Meet the Teams: Brazil

Nickname: Best known as The Selaçāo or ("THE" Selection), Brazil is hoping to also build them selves from Pentacampões (Five time champions) to Hexacampões (Six time champions...I think)

Star: Brazil rarely lacks for high profile stars, this year the name on everyone's lips is Neymar, he of the floppy hair, record breaking transfer to Barcelona, soaring results at last year's confederations cup and national attention. Of course, every four years there's a Brazilian star set to dominate the world (Ronaldo, Ronaldinhio, Kaka...) but they don't always come through, and Neymar will have to do a lot to come through

Gustavo asks us not to mention him
as that would be spoiling the
small club atmosphere of his fanbase

Hip-Star: It's hard to name a Brazilian who isn't famous, but at the same time, given the depth of the squad, it's pretty easy to name someone most other people haven't heard of, thereby burnishing your credibility as a totally superior footie fan. We suggest you talk up Luiz Gustavo since he 1) plays for an underreported German team; 2) will have a lot to do as back up playmaker in the midfield if any team manages to contain Neymar; 3) has two names...and the whole "Brazilian-stars-have-one-name" thing is totally played out.

X-Factor: There's one thing that can undo any Brazilian team: the press. If you don't know how the Brazilian press treats the Brazilian national team just think of all the Japanese reporters who mobbed Ichiro Suzuki, and multiply it by the typical Super Bowl media day. Obsessed doesn't begin to cover it, and playing at home? It's going to be brutal.

Coach: Luiz Felipe Scolari looks like he should be debating the cost-benefit analysis of a new button on remote controls, or quietly telling you to bring your date home before curfew (or impersonating Gene Hackman for a living) But he's actually one of the most prolific coaches in recent memory, getting Brazil to win the 2002 World Cup, pushing Portugal to their best ever results in 2004 (2nd in Euro) and 2006 (Semi-Finalists). A bad run at Chelsea nearly torpedoed his reputation (over-reactionary British fans? Well, I never!) but since returning to Brazil he has gone back to crushing it all over again.

History: Brazil is to World Cup History like Meryl Streep is to Oscar History, always there. And while there will be a lot of time this summer devoted to the long ago history and the glory days of Pelé (still the best known soccer star in world history), they've won twice more in the past twenty years. But in the past 8 it's been largely disappointing sleep-walking group play and quarter-final disappointments.

Stuff the goal...stuff your face

Food: We could talk about the Caprihina or the Feijoda stew or really any massive sampler of meat. But since we expect a lot of Bazilian celebrations the best food may be the fudgey truffle Brigadeiro. Perfect for parties, privacy and endless gloating

Fool: We have nothing but respect for Dilma Rousseff trying to lead an enormous country through a second boon, while staving off comparisons to her more popular predecessor Lula da Silva (who got her into the protest mess by lobbying for both the world cup and Olympics so vigorously). But obviously, if the World Cup goes poorly she's going to get all the blame. If it goes well, she's going to get all the blame for not doing more for the impoverished people who need roads, bus fare and schools more than futbol victories. (Though, ideally, they'd like to have both.)

Best Case: They play like Brazil. The rest takes care of itself.

Worst Case: Like the Springfield Nuclear Plant Softball Team, the entire starting 11 succumbs to bizarre injuries: Neymar vanishes into time and space, Hulk suffers acute radiation poisoning (oh the irony), David Luiz suffers from gigantism due to over use of nerve tonic. Fielding an entire team of backups, they still get to the quarterfinals.

My prediction: I tried. I really tried. I really really tried to find someone who could beat Brazil, and avoid being yet another predicting their inevitable triumph (especially since the last times I've predicted their triumph I've gotten badly burned) but, I just don't see it. They'll play well early and the longer their run goes, the more momentum they build as the tournament progresses. The more momentum they have, the more likely I think they are to grab the Cup. Winners.

Added Bonus: Brazil has a tremendous Hip-Hop scene, and it's high time we feature a lady so here's their representative in the World Cup of Hip Hop: Flora Matos with "Mundo Pequeno"

Meet the Team: Argentina

To be fair..there is some white

Nickname: La Albiceleste (The White and Sky Blue) isn't exactly fearsome, intimidating or the least bit interesting, but it is uh...accurate...wait no...that's a navy kit...screw it.

Star: Here's one of the four names that American sports fans of all stripes would be hard pressed NOT to know already: Lionel Messi aka "The New Maradona", aka "La Pulga Atomica/The Atomic Flea". To put it simply: he's good, really good, probably the best player in the world, and has been for the last 6 years or so. He creates, he finishes and he has arguably the biggest target on his back of any player in the world, along with the crushing expectations associated with it. He was great as a distributor in South Africa, will the pressure to score push him faster than he needs?

Hip-Star: Obviously, everybody knows about Messi, and only poseurs would really think that Sergio Agüero or Gonzalo Higuaín aren't totally mainstream too. If you really want to show your awesomeness, Ezequiel Lavezzi who would be the top threat if it weren't for the three sell-outs ahead of him. The PSG striker can hang with the big guns, and makes an awesome threat off the bench.

Romero can't believe he's the
weak link either

X-Factor: There's no real concern with what the Argentinians are going to do offensively, and in their relatively anemic group, there's little worry that they'll be fine until the knockout rounds. But that's the point where goal keeping form will suddenly matter. Sergio Romero, the most trusted Argentine keeper isn't seeing much of the pitch at Monaco, and the others (Mariano Andújar, Augustín Orión and Óscar Ustari) are either older, far less familiar with international competition or both. The goals allowed against the likes of Iran, Nigeria and Bosnia/Herzegovinia may be telling in how they handle tougher outs like France, Ecuador or Switzerland.

Coach: Alejandro Sabella lacks a few things the last man to guide Argentina to the world cup had: international fame, a history of dating Madonna, a total lack of self control. But the phlegmatic new coach has been valuable to Argentina in a way the old guy (what was his name...Mara-donda?) didn't. Going undefeated against an increasingly ominous South American competition, and forging a firm bond with the maestro named Messi.

History: A pair of titles in 1978 and 1986 are the dominant laurels of Maradonna and Kempes' golden generation. Since they bowed out, however, they haven't made it past the quarterfinals. For all the furor around Messi and co, they need a little more hardware before they rank among the legends in local lore.

Breakfast with Argentina--
This on toast.

Food: With so many games being played in the afternoon, and lunch being the biggest meal of the day in Argentina the prospect of a couple empanadas and a cake with dulce du leche sounds great, though I'm not sure it could help me stay awake...I know, a glass of Malbec! No way that'll make me sleepy.

Fool: Christine Fernandez de Kirchner offers something of a cautionary tale for any politically astute wife of a former president (not that we know anyone like that). Sure she's got two terms, but she also has a rotten economy and a ceaseless run of corruption scandals to inspire protests against her. On the plus side, Pope Francis is both Argentinian and a futbol fan, so God might be on their side, even if political reliability isn't.

Best Case: Messi runs circles around everyone, and dismantles Cristiano Ronaldo in a quarter, Mario Balotelli in the semi, and Neymar in the final to add a third star to the AFA crest.

Worst Case: A freak samba accident breaks La Pulga Atomica's leg, and the despondant teammates sleepwalk to a stunning run of ties that leave them just short of the out rounds.

My prediction: While Edin Dzeko and Bosnia might sneak a point in the first match, Sergio Romero should get back into form throughout the group stage, and can probably handle the second round rival (likely Switzerland or Ecuador). The quarters is where things get interesting, and while I think they make the semi's, I don't think they go any further than that. 4th Place

Added Bonus: Our Argentine representives in the Hip-Hop world Cup are Koxmoz

In it, But Win It? #6: The Three Friendly Long Shots

I was going to call this post "The Three Amigos..." then I remembered the various quasi-racist offerings of that same name and thought, "meh...this is better".

Anyway, we're nearing the end of qualification, but for those happy few Central/South American teams who sealed the deal early the nerve-wracking part is over...for now. While Mexico and Uruguay fret and fuss over match-ups and terrible twists of fate that have landed them in the play-in rounds, these three squads are set to go...though whether it means anything or not is another matter entirely.

So here's a quick spin and ridiculously presumptuous analysis of three more qualifiers for next year's world cup.



Chile
Contender Credentials: The South American Roja will be making their second straight trip to the Mondiale in 2014 with a squad full of familiar faces that play among the top leagues in the world. In particular the front of Alexis Sanchez, Humberto Sourez and Jean Beausajour is back for blood.

Pretender Problems: Chile's biggest flaw is that, while many of their players are entering their prime, they don't have the unit cohesion that many of their rivals will. Spread throughout Europe and South America, they don't get to play together, save for international affairs. Last fall they dropped four straight and only qualified thanks to 5 wins in 6 matches to round out the campaign.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Their recent form is a sign of piecing everything together and--as the darkest of dark horses--they race to a surprising semi-final.
Pits of Despair Scenario: A rough European season depletes their experienced fronts and they're left as the butt of jokes in South America for the next four years.
Prediction: Chile are the Oakland A's of South American soccer, too often overlooked, but never a champion. Round of 16

Ecuador
Contender Credentials: Better known as "El-Tri-That-Actually-Already-Qualified", Ecuador have long been feared in South America, but little respected elsewhere in the World. Despite a disappointing campaign in 2010, they were back in fine form--looking comfortable throughout their campaign and have one of the most consistent leaders in South American Futbol: 2006 rising star/current-day captain Antonio Valencia of Man United
Pretender Problems: Mexico's non-union, South-American equivalent has problems similar to their northernly brethren. Their manager Reinaldo Ruena gets middling results, they seem utterly incapable of winning away from home and they had the straight up rotten luck to lose the fearsome striker Christian Benitez to a heart attack.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: My Ecuadorian student is right about an international conspiracy to stop Ecuador from showing up higher profile Argentina/Brazil/Uruguay, and a plucky squad of upstarts uncover the secret assassination plans while leading an inspirational underdog charge to the championship.
Pits of Despair Scenario: They can't get off the ground away from Quito. Literally. The pressure of playing so close to the ocean makes their ears pop and they lie in the fetal position for three weeks straight.
Prediction: There's a lot of enthusiasm/team-of-destiny fervor around Ecuador, but not enough talent to see them through. Third in their group


Honduras
Contender Credentials: La Bicolor is slowly rising in the ranks of continental powers. This is their second straight cup appearance, matching Costa Rica for the longest streak by any CONCACAF Team not named "Mexico" or "the United States of America". They're even rising up in global estimation with Wigan Athletic building a pipeline of sorts through Midfielder Roger Espinoza and Defender Juan Carlos Garcia
Pretender Problems: Okay...honestly? that record reflects a lot more of CONCACAF's weakness rather than Honduras' strength. Even qualification was something of a fortuitous break with Mexico playing so poorly that they backed in via a couple of draws against Panama and Jamaica. (Plus Garcia & Espinoza have a combined 12 Premier league caps)
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: They cement their rising star status with a shocking 2nd place finish and tightly contested Round of 16 match.
Pits of Despair Scenario: They forget to pack their shin guards and have to cover themselves in Spongebob Bandaids once the bigger kids start picking on them.
Prediction: Sorry Honduras, nothing doing...4th Place in their group