Starting XI: Getting Ready to Meet the Teams

It's a great big world, and a great big World Cup. Sure if you've made it to this tiny dot in the soccer writing starscape, you probably care more about Croatian goalkeeping than is reasonably good for a sane person.

However, on the oft chance that the all-powerful google kicked you out on this curb and you're just getting to know what soccer is and who is playing, allow us to welcome you in. Over the next month I'll introduce you to each and every team with information both valuable and moronic. Here's what you'll see this next month

I. Nickname: Every national team has their own little nickname to complement the country name. Some are fearsome "Les Diables Rouge"/The Red Devils for Belgium, and some are just based on colors "La Azzuri"/The Blue for Italy. We'll break it down so you feel like you're one of the core fans and can understand when futbol writers toss out references in recaps.

II. Star: While you need a full 11 players meshing together to succeed, soccer at this level is very much a game of stars (particularly when you watch it on television). This will be a nice spot to introduce you to the best player on each side--some of whom anyone with ears/eyes can recognize, and others you will get to know more and more over the next few months

III. Hip-Star: If you want to go beyond knowing who the rest of the world is talking about, this is where I can give you any hipster's favorite player on each team. These guys may fly under the radar, but that's what makes them inherently better than anyone else.

IV. X-Factor: More often than not matches are determined not by anything a team does on the pitch, but by what their rivals do to prepare (or not prepare for them). This spot will give me a shot to set up what else in the competition can boost and bomb a team's chances.

V. Coach: It never hurts to get to know the man in charge. Masterminds, tacticians and the plumb lucky will end up getting their due as well.

VI. History: The legacy of each team in the World Cup should be considered, not because the great-grand-daddy's of by gone legends will actually take to the pitch, but just because you can be certain that some one, somewhere has sepia toned memories of what was great (even if it wasn't)

VII. Food: Getting ready for the cup requires a couple of things--first and foremost is figuring out what to eat and drink while cheering your team on to greatness. I'll take a look at what's on the menu in each location and plot out my own Road to Rio...Bravo Weight Loss Clinic

VIII. Fool: Unfortunately, any time a national team does well they offer solace to the only public official who engenders more hatred than the team manager: the political leader. I'll give a quick rundown of the insufferable, moronic and generally loathe-able figureheads who will be in the luxury boxes rather than on the turf.

IX. Best Case: Returning to the old chestnut "In It But Win It" series from last fall, I'll run down what the best case for each team is...

X. Worst Case: as well as the worst case...

XI. My prediction:...before concluding with my own prediction for how things will really go

ADDED BONUS! I'll send you off from each post with a little slice of musical culture...specifically the closest thing to hip-hop I can find from each country.

See you soon with facts, figures, and fun-making for every team in this year's World Cup.

In it, But Win It? #9: Better Late than Nevers

There's a sad truth about the play-off games for qualification to the world cup: often times they are easier to win than the regular qualification stages themselves.

Think about it. You're several points down, thrashing and battling with a continental rival who knows exactly how you're going to play and what you're going to do, because you've played each other dozens upon dozens of times, and your players face-off in club leagues on a regular basis. Sure, you could grit your teeth and charge head long into the face of certain death.

On the other hand, you could shrug your shoulders, let your rivals win and not worry about it, because in one month you'll get to kick the snot out of a group of part-time semi-pros from around the world who will be happy just to shake your hand.

So it is with the last two teams who qualified for the FIFA World Cup. Mexico and Uruguay. Both are talented, both should have been in long before, both got to beat up on a pair of lesser luminaries en route to their eventual destiny.

(What is that destiny you asked? Allow me to make a wildly inaccurate guess!)

Mexico
Contender Credentials: Mexico is and will always be the class of the non-power associations. They have been the most consistently excellent team not from either Europe or South America. They make the second round every time out, like clock-work and have, in Giovanni dos Santos and Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez a prodigiously talented top two striking combination.
Pretender Problems: Mexico has been playing abysmally for the last three-four years. The once nightmarish setting of Azteca means nothing to their fellow CONCACAF foes and they look utterly baffled by any pressure or difficulty thrown their way. Mexican fans are already despondent about El Tri's chances (as one of my students said: "we don't deserve to go there...we just don't.") On that, we agree lad.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Enrique Pena Nieto swings a free trade deal with Brazil just in time to offer Mexico City "drinking" water to every other country's training camp. Montezuma's revenge leaves Meixco victors by default.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: The team struggles to find their way out of their hotel rooms. The FA fires three coaches after each dispiriting group loss, and Mexico crumbles into their worst showing ever.
Prediction: Chichirito chokes on the biggest stage of his career, no body else has any idea of how to help. The ugliness continues 4th place.

Uruguay
Contender Credentials: The most dangerous team in South America: La Celeste combines all the creative prowess of three of the world's most feared strikers: Diego Forlan, Luis Suarez and (new gun) Edison Cavani. While the highly touted Brazil and Argentina went into South Africa as favorites, Uruguay was the only one still standing by the semi-finals, and pulled the same trick again in the Copa America.
Pretender Problems: Good as they were four years ago...it was four years ago. Forlan is on his last legs, Suarez has become the Diego Maradonna of his nation (both in talent and in bizarrely erratic behavior). The midfield is older and still underwhelming, so it will fall to the strikers to create their own chances...good luck with that.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Forlan finds the fountain of youth. Suarez finds the fountain of Adderall and a stout defense of Pereria and Caceras hold off all foes en route to a repeat of their last title...in Brazil...sixty years ago.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: The magic is all dried up and they play much more like the squad that struggled versus Venezuela than the world beaters of 2010. Only now there's no Jordan to beat up on.
Prediction: Forlan has one shining moment, Suarez does something sketchy, Cavani looks brilliant but exhausted and only a group of death (plus suspect goalkeeping) marks them out as a stunning underachiever. 3rd place

In case you haven't been keeping score at home: here's how I've predicted the tournament before I know who will be on the rosters and whom will be playing whom.

4th places: Iran, Costa Rica, Bosnia/Herzegovina, Honduras, Algeria, Cameroon, Greece, Mexico

3rd places: Australia, Holland, Switzerland, Russia, Ecuador, Nigeria, Croatia, Uruguay

16s: South Korea, Columbia, Belgium, England, Chile, Ivory Coast, France, Portugal

Quarters: Japan, Italy, USA, Spain

Semis: Brazil, Ghana

Runners Up: Germany

Champions: Argentina

That would require pretty much, this exact draw:

In it, But Win It? #8: Born To Runner-Up

For some reason, thinking of the UEFA Playoff games always makes me think of the scene from the Simpsons' where perpetual over-achiever Lisa ponders a life of (relative) mediocrity.

Announcer: And now, Avis Rent-A-Car is proud to present the second best band in America. Will you welcome Garfunkel, Messina, Oates, and Lisa singing their number two hit, "Born to Runner-up". [Audience boos] 

Lisa: Why would they come to our concert just to boo us? 

Such is the situation for Europe's other qualifiers. You know, the ones who didn't win their own group but instead beat somebody else who, also, did not win their own group. After all, if you're African you once you win you have to keep on winning...but if you're European...meh.

Here now are some wholly inaccurate predictions about what will befall the next batch of Europeans to take their talents to the unamused masses.


Croatia
Contender Credentials: As one of the top 16 teams in the world, and a perpetually well prepared cup side, Croatia promises to be a tough opponent for whomever they're drawn with. They also boast a tremendous tandem in Midfielder Luka Modric (Real Madrid) and Forward Mario Mandzukic (Bayern Munich), that should scare anybody.
Pretender Problems: After a sterling run to the semi-finals in their debut in 1998, Croatian football has been rather similar to other ex-Yugoslav states (Serbia/Slovakia/Slovenia), and is still searching for a breakthrough to equal Davor Suker's run of glory 16 years ago.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Now that he's head of the Croatian Association, Suker can use all the team's resources to finance a time machine to bring a good chunk of the '98 team in to play alongside Modric and Mandzukic en route to another 3rd place finish.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Drawn with faster, more agile players, everyone other than Modric and Mandzukic chokes up and turns into a red-chequered pumpkin.
Prediction: There's enough talent to get one win here, and if paired with a less compelling partner (Iran/Algeria) that alone should get them 3rd place.

France

Contender Credentials: Packed with some of the best talents in the world, and now with a world class side in Paris-Saint Germain. France has plenty of people playing world-class football everywhere you turn, particularly in Balon D'or Front-runner Franck Ribery. Add in the gritty ex-champion manager Didier Deschamps and its hard to see why France isn't a frontrunner.
Pretender Problems: Then you remember that they're France, and its hard to see how they even got this far. They needed a miracle win with their backs against the walls to beat Ukraine, and they got it. They are ranked by FIFA as the worst qualifier from Europe and they play that way until the last possible moment, so maybe it's a little much to expect another final appearance without Zinedine Zidane.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Deschamps gets the whole team to bond through trust falls and campfire circles until they are a well oiled machine that dominates in Brazil and unites a fractured nation.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: In fighting, racial tension and boneheaded play leaves them looking like a dog's breakfast on the world stage, yet again.
Prediction: As much as I mock the French, and boy...do I mock the French...I really do believe that they have a strong balance of talent, experience, youth and strategy. They just need time to gel away from the all important club season. Having done that they'll slip into the second round before falling to an upstart like Japan, the US or Ghana Round of 16

Greece

Contender Credentials: Perpetually one of the toughest outs in Europe, Las Hellas knows how to frustrate and aggravate their rivals to the dying seconds of the match. They refuse to let in easy goals and in a tournament plagued by new and quirky balls that puts them instantly in competition for a top two spot in the group.
Pretender Problems: While they don't let in goals, they also don't score many, having gotten 2 in all their 6 previous World Cup matches. Forwards are as rare a commodity in Greece as retirees who don't mind cutbacks in public services, and while defense wins championships, you need someone (anyone) to put it in the back of the net too.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Three straight nil-nil draws see them through a tough group dominated by one of the heavyweights.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Another tournament, another bout of defensively brilliant, offensively dim futbol and another fourth place finish in the group.
Prediction: Mostly underwhelming, with a few flashes of brilliance from captain Giorgious Karagounis' new mentee Kostas Fortunis which suggests better fortunes ahead. 4th Place

Portugal

Contender Credentials: Cristiano Ronaldo. Cristiano Ronaldo. Cristiano Ronaldo. Cristiano Ronaldo. Cristiano Ronaldo. Cristiano Ronaldo. The media's obsession with Cristiano Ronaldo. Cristiano Ronaldo.
Pretender Problems: The back line's best hope is the rapidly ossifying Bruno Alves, and the scrum of hum-drum goalkeepers is once again proof that no matter how good the chosen one is up top, he can't do everything himself. (At least, not until he finds a way to clone himself)
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Cristiano Ronaldo clones himself. Portugal wins their first cup. Portugal becomes a model for economic/scientific/football genius.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Cristiano Ronaldo injures himself while pretending that he was injured by a tackle. Portugal is pummelled, the economy tanks again.
Prediction: Ronaldo has enough offensive fire power (especially with his pal Nani) to overwhelm a couple minnows, but then runs smack dab into an equally potent offense in the next round. Round of 16.

In it, But Win it? #7 Africa's Best Hopes

Edison Erantes De Nacimento (known to his friends as Pele) once predicted that an African nation would win the World Cup by 2000. Of course, Pele has never really been proven as terribly accurate as a pundit, and four cups after his prediction expired, Africa's still without a top 4 finish to their name.

Will this year's batch of qualifiers flip the script and prove Pele right, right in front of him? Probably not, but let's make a bunch of overly eager predictions about them anyway!

Algeria
Contender Credentials: The Fennec Foxes have slowly established themselves as the preeminent power in North African football, and as a xenophobic French population grumbles about foreigners on the national team, they're getting more and more top flight talent to play for the mother land including fast rising defenders Faouxi Ghoulam (22, St. Etienne) and Aissa Mandi (22, Reims) and the Inter Milan based duo Saphir Taider (MF) and Ishak Belfodi (F).
Pretender Problems: With the decline of Morocco and the tumult around Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, it's not terribly surprising that Algeria is the top North African team. More tellingly, while this is their second straight Cup, their most experienced player (DF/Captian Majid Bougherra) has twice as many caps as the second most experienced talent. So "experience" is a bit of a misnomer for the side.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Buoyed by a raft of young talent and minimal expectations, Algeria stuns a few teams in the group stages to make a stirring run to the Round of 16.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Manager Vahid Halilhodzic fails to mention a curfew, the young Algerians go out partying in Brazil and a sleazy James Franco with corn rows turns them into the subject of Spring Breakers 2: Brazilian Boogaloo.
Prediction: There's lots of talent in Algeria's line-up, but there's lots of talent in everyone's line-up, and it doesn't make much of a difference (4th in Group)

Cameroon

Contender Credentials: With their trip to Brazil the Indomitable Lions will have made it to 7 of the last 9 world Cups. The quietly, doggedly, consistent West Africans are led by their greatest player since the legendary Roger Milla, Samuel Eto'o (currently making a major comeback with Chelsea). They'll be unlikely to quiver in the glare of the global spotlight.
Pretender Problems: The guys who played in Spain in 1982 aren't still on the pitch, worse still, neither are the players who gave Cameroon its first/only play-off round appearance in 1990. A team that often relies on Eto'o as their primary option still hasn't developed another forward who could partner with him, or take the torch once he makes his exit.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Eto'o's return to form inspires his younger teammates to greater heights and younger playmakers Alexandre Song (Barcelona) and Eynog Enoh (Ajax) use their Champion's league experience to set up another run to the quarters.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Eto'o gets hurt in training, a young backline gets gobbled up by faster opponents and Cameroon crashes out in the group stage, again.
Prediction: The Lions are always good for a historical montage, but they won't be making new memories in Brazil. (4th in Group)

Cote D'Ivoire
Contender Credentials: Ranked 17th in the World, the Ivorians are easily among the worlds' best teams. They've also been Africa's most impressive side for most of the past decade, making the quarter finals of every African Cup of Nations since 2006 (5 straight), and boast a star-studded line-up from their golden generation: Drogba, the Toures (Yaya and Kolou), Zokora and Barry.
Pretender Problems: The Golden Generation is starting to resemble the Golden Girls, which isn't much of a problem in the haphazard "we'll-give-you-credit-for-whatever-matches-you-play" world of the FIFA Rankings, but starts to look suspicious when stacked up against a host of other sterling international line-ups.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: The best African players on the planet turn up for one last hurrah, while training in a new generation of talent (Wilfred Bony, Serge Aurier, Ismael Diomande) en route to a stunning final victory over Brazil in the Final.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: There's a split in camp between the cool-older kids and the snot-faced tykes, there's no cute girls camp nearby to sneak into and build morale, the summer ends with an unsatisfying poop joke.
Prediction: There's too much talent for the Elephants to be denied a play-off berth in 3-straight-cups, but that's as far as they go. Second-in-Group, Round of 16

Ghana
Contender Credentials: If Cote D'Ivoire has been the best African side in recent history, Ghana has been the most World Cup Savvy side. And one could argue (as I often have argued) that they were robbed of a semi-final spot by Luis Suarez. The team seems to have only gotten deeper as the years have progressed and with local coach Kwesi Appiah on the sidelines, they've been in great form of late.
Pretender Problems: Appiah's a fan-base pleaser to be sure, but he seemed to alienate familiar faces like Kevin Prince Boateng, Michael Essien and Sully Muntari. And if the Black Stars are as good as I claim, then why haven't they won a major trophy since 1982?
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Essien and Muntari take it upon themselves to lead younger players in the midfield and defense, while Asamoah Gyan runs rampant beside Dede/Jordan Ayew up top and the Black Stars live up to the title of "The Brazil of Africa" in Brazil, taking home the continents first cup.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: All the sterling runs from Gyan, Ayew and Dominic Adiyiah mean nothing when the defense and goalkeeping is spotty, and Ghana can't escape another difficult group.
Prediction: Keeping up the tradition of going one better every four years (and breaking American hearts every four years), the Black Stars top the US in the Quarterfinals and finish 4th over all.

Nigeria
Contender Credentials: The Super Eagles were the first African side to advance from the Group Stages in consecutive world cups, and can also boast of being the top team on the continent as the reigning Cup of Nations Winner. They'll know Brazil better than most teams after the Confederations' Cup last summer, and they have one of the brightest young stars in African football in midfielder John Obi Mikel
Pretender Problems: Mikel can't do it all himself (as their poor showing in the Confederations' Cup proved). Nigeria has very few scoring options up top and a relatively untested batch of defenders in the back, meaning that, in all likelihood Mikel will have to do it all himself. Add to that, the total unpredictability of the Nigerian FA and it's impossible to say what Nigeria will do next.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Goalkeeper/Captain Vincent Enemya finds the magical words to motivate a rag tag bunch of youngsters around one superb player, all while he finds love in an unlikely place, teaches the president a thing or two and learns a valuable lesson about growing up.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: The surly president blusters and fusses, the young players wilt under the pressure, Enemya snaps and goes on a profane tirade and John Obi-Mikel ponders changing his citizenship.
Prediction:They play soccer matches, sometimes well, sometimes not well. Goodluck Jonathan wears a cool hat. (3rd in Group)

In it, But Win It? #6: The Three Friendly Long Shots

I was going to call this post "The Three Amigos..." then I remembered the various quasi-racist offerings of that same name and thought, "meh...this is better".

Anyway, we're nearing the end of qualification, but for those happy few Central/South American teams who sealed the deal early the nerve-wracking part is over...for now. While Mexico and Uruguay fret and fuss over match-ups and terrible twists of fate that have landed them in the play-in rounds, these three squads are set to go...though whether it means anything or not is another matter entirely.

So here's a quick spin and ridiculously presumptuous analysis of three more qualifiers for next year's world cup.



Chile
Contender Credentials: The South American Roja will be making their second straight trip to the Mondiale in 2014 with a squad full of familiar faces that play among the top leagues in the world. In particular the front of Alexis Sanchez, Humberto Sourez and Jean Beausajour is back for blood.

Pretender Problems: Chile's biggest flaw is that, while many of their players are entering their prime, they don't have the unit cohesion that many of their rivals will. Spread throughout Europe and South America, they don't get to play together, save for international affairs. Last fall they dropped four straight and only qualified thanks to 5 wins in 6 matches to round out the campaign.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Their recent form is a sign of piecing everything together and--as the darkest of dark horses--they race to a surprising semi-final.
Pits of Despair Scenario: A rough European season depletes their experienced fronts and they're left as the butt of jokes in South America for the next four years.
Prediction: Chile are the Oakland A's of South American soccer, too often overlooked, but never a champion. Round of 16

Ecuador
Contender Credentials: Better known as "El-Tri-That-Actually-Already-Qualified", Ecuador have long been feared in South America, but little respected elsewhere in the World. Despite a disappointing campaign in 2010, they were back in fine form--looking comfortable throughout their campaign and have one of the most consistent leaders in South American Futbol: 2006 rising star/current-day captain Antonio Valencia of Man United
Pretender Problems: Mexico's non-union, South-American equivalent has problems similar to their northernly brethren. Their manager Reinaldo Ruena gets middling results, they seem utterly incapable of winning away from home and they had the straight up rotten luck to lose the fearsome striker Christian Benitez to a heart attack.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: My Ecuadorian student is right about an international conspiracy to stop Ecuador from showing up higher profile Argentina/Brazil/Uruguay, and a plucky squad of upstarts uncover the secret assassination plans while leading an inspirational underdog charge to the championship.
Pits of Despair Scenario: They can't get off the ground away from Quito. Literally. The pressure of playing so close to the ocean makes their ears pop and they lie in the fetal position for three weeks straight.
Prediction: There's a lot of enthusiasm/team-of-destiny fervor around Ecuador, but not enough talent to see them through. Third in their group


Honduras
Contender Credentials: La Bicolor is slowly rising in the ranks of continental powers. This is their second straight cup appearance, matching Costa Rica for the longest streak by any CONCACAF Team not named "Mexico" or "the United States of America". They're even rising up in global estimation with Wigan Athletic building a pipeline of sorts through Midfielder Roger Espinoza and Defender Juan Carlos Garcia
Pretender Problems: Okay...honestly? that record reflects a lot more of CONCACAF's weakness rather than Honduras' strength. Even qualification was something of a fortuitous break with Mexico playing so poorly that they backed in via a couple of draws against Panama and Jamaica. (Plus Garcia & Espinoza have a combined 12 Premier league caps)
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: They cement their rising star status with a shocking 2nd place finish and tightly contested Round of 16 match.
Pits of Despair Scenario: They forget to pack their shin guards and have to cover themselves in Spongebob Bandaids once the bigger kids start picking on them.
Prediction: Sorry Honduras, nothing doing...4th Place in their group

IBWI: Europe's Top Offerings

We're just a few weeks away from all of European futbol descending into a pitched dog-eat-dog, man-beats-man, no-holds-barred, battle-to-the-dismemberment for five measly plane tickets for Brazil. But while those teams have work still to do, four others punched their own tickets by finishing top of their qualifying groups in October.

We could wait for the full field to be set, the groups to be arranged and the rosters to be finalized before we predict their results...but that sounds responsible/lame. So let's just make inaccurate assertions to fill up time.

Russia
Contender Credentials: The double headed Eagle and former powerhouse will be making their first appearance since 20002 in advance of hosting the cup themselves in four years time. They topped perennial qualifier Portugal in their group, boast a tightly knit group of players who all ply their trade in the Russian premier league, and have media-darling manager Fabio Capello as their coach.

Pretender Problems: Topping Portugal in qualifying's a lot easier than in the real thing. The only real chance for Russian Premier League players to face top tier opponents is the Champions' League, which means that unless you play for CSKA Moscow...good luck. And having a media-darling manager wears thin...just ask England (Capello's last squad)

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Vladmir Putin steps in as a shirtless center half and guides the team to the title (possible through KGB tactics, but who really cares?)
Pits of Despair Scenario: Ongoing international spats cause Putin to through a pout and keep the team home leading to the first intentional disqualification since India in 1950.
Prediction: They go, they have one good match, they struggle against a better team and one they should beat and Capello's star dims further as they wind up 3rd Place in the Group

Our First Debutante

Bosnia/Herzegovina

Contender Credentials: The Golden Lilies debut in the World Cup having soared as high as 13th in the world and with two players (Edin Dzeko and Vedad Ibevic) with more than 8 goals (only Argentina has a similar tandem: the slightly higher profile Messi/Higuain). Their defense was similarly stingy ceding only 6 goals in all of qualifying.

Pretender Problems: The Lilies lost their #13 ranking swiftly when they were squashed by America (yes...America) at home. Take away their absurd 21 combined goals in victories over Lichtenstein and Latvia and their totals are slightly less impressive (7 of Dzeko's 10 came in those games). Then again, they also ceded half their goals to the mighty forces of Lichtenstein and Latvia...so maybe that Defense merits some questioning too.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Not content to just appear in the Cup, Bosnia is inspired to push themselves to greater heights and inspires a new golden generation to pick up the game with a second round berth.
Pits of Despair Scenario: Coach Safet Susic has to go into hiding after all his timidity and substitution quirks cost them any continued glory.
Prediction: They're by no means incompetent, but they're also unlikely to reach the same heights against better competition: 4th Place


England
Contender Credentials: They have some of the world's most prolific players, who all earn their keep playing in the world's toughest league, many of whom also face off against the best teams in Europe, while facing the relentless pressure of the World's most intense fan base. And even if they didn't have all those things, they still invented the darn thing!

Pretender Problems: As long as there have been World Cups there have been English teams finding new ways to lose them. Every four years the entire (English speaking) world is deluged with predictions of England finally taking back what is rightfully theirs, and every four years they find a way to screw it up (or almost screw it up). Is it really crazy to predict the same thing again this time?

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Inspired by enough media coverage to make a Kardashian blush, the Three Lions finally get their just reward and take home the spoils from the cursed usurpers land.
Pits of Despair Scenario: The WAGS are disappointing, the players are more so, the sun is too hot and Sepp Blatter is so irritated by their complaints that he connives to cheat them out of all three matches.
Prediction: It's England, so they'll survive the group stage. But it's England, so they'll screw it up in the Round of 16

Spain
Contender Credentials: Credit where it's due, the Red ones, The Red Fury, or the Fury are the best team in the world. They have the trophy from South Africa, they have the number one ranking in the world, they've won an absurd three straight major tournaments. They've lost one game in two years [to Brazil, in Brazil]. Until they're beaten, they are the team to beat.

Pretender Problems: Until 2010 Spanish futbol was known much more for their ability to squander opportunities than for their ability to finish them. With the golden generation of Spanish talent rapidly passing 30 and entering their decline, a repeat may be difficult--especially since the tournament takes place in South America.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: South America, Shmouth America; the most indomitable collection of international talent racks up a second title as nonchalantly as they do everything else. Every other national association pays obscene sums of money for the secrets to player development and solves the Spanish debt crisis.
Pits of Despair Scenario: A couple of injuries keep heroes like Villa, Xabi, Xavi, Iniesta and others from playing. Latin Americans take their vengeance on conquistadors by intentionally ruining the erstwhile colonizers return.
Prediction: As golden as all get-out, Spain slides into the Quarter-Finals when an unfortunate red-card and a little homefield advantage send them home.

In it But Win It? #4: TGIF!

Last night was a great night around the world. Not only because lots of people kicked off their weekend in style, but because four more teams punched their tickets to Brazil.

But now it's Saturday morning and the cartoons are loud, the heads are pounding and reality starts to set in. They may be in the world cup, but can they win it? (I have no idea...which means I'm just as qualified as anybody else to be making irresponsible predictions now! WHEE!)

Germany

Contender Credentials--Do you see the three stars on the crest? Have you seen the ruthless, calculating, machine-like efficiency with which Germany decimates its rivals? If Germany's at a World Cup, its a contender for the title. Add to that the fact that the German Bundesliga, where most of the DFB-Elf is playing, is one of the strongest leagues in the world right now and you have a team of superbly trained, superbly coached, superbly prepared athletes  who are expected to make the quarter finals at the very least.
Pretender Problems--The strength of the Bundesliga (and the fact that the other main players in die Nationalmanschafft regular rotation play for such European luminaries as Arsenal, Chelsea, Real Madrid and Lazio) means that many players are likely to be exhausted when the World Cup rolls around. Then you've got a trip to South America and all the associated headaches.
Pie-In-The-Sky Scenario: Laser-visioned dedication, hard-work and great coaching strategies from Joachim Low see Germany to the title it has just missed in '02, and '06, and 2010.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Some kind of Greek/Portugese/Irish/Icelandic hex dooms Germany's favorite 11 to a bottomless pit of sovereign debt and a shocking last place finish.
Prediction: I initially was going to put them as losers in the round of sixteen...but come on, this is Germany we're talking about. They'll be runners up...again...sorry Germany.

Switzerland
Contender Credentials--La Nati cruised through a not all together easy qualifying group, besting recent World Cup qualifiers Norway and Slovenia as well as daring upstart Iceland. The mix of German and Italian families in Switzerland attempts to merge to successful styles of play and has been impressive in guiding them to regular appearances including a victory over Spain in the first group stage match in South Africa. The team is familiar with each other and with coach Ottmar Hitzfeld who has been coaching the same national team for an astonishing 5 years! (Practically an eon by national team standards)
Pretender Problems--As long as Hitzfeld has been at the helm of Switzerland they've been good but not great. Fans have come to expect strong workmanlike, but not transcendent victories. In a sport that values innovation and adaptability, being comfortable with a job and a coach does not always equate to being victorious with a coach. Add to that the fact that only midfielder Xherdan Shaqiri is likely to be making a run against top European talent regularly (as a player for Bayern Munich) and the Swiss may well "miss" in Brazil.
Pie-In-The-Sky Scenario: Someone, somewhere says "I want to play like insert name of Swiss player here" and makes their hearts glow as they lose in the round of 16.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Uncertain and unfamiliar with each other players tepidly execute Hitzfeld's game plan, which the rest of the world already knows and Switzerland is once again just a footnote on someone else's epic ass.
Prediction: Third place in the group, but at least one Swiss child gets excited by a well struck goal.



Belgium
Contender Credentials--The hype around the Red Devils has been humming for years now. Eden Hazard's tremendous play in the Premiership will do that, but the flood of young Belgian talent in the World's top leagues has buoyed their performances and boosted the Belgians to a number six world ranking.
Pretender Problems--That flood of young talent is a double-edged sword, especially since the Belgians haven't made a World Cup since 2002 when Hazard and co. were a bunch of prepubescent daydreamers. Much as we might like to have a new power emerge, there's a reason why so few teams have won the world cup...very few know how to.
Pie-In-The-Sky Scenario: The hype is real and they soar into the finals as an unheralded wunder-team.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: The hype is well...hype and intense marking of Hazard limits distribution and playmaking chances for others, forcing the Belgians into an embarrassing fourth place.
Prediction: Truth be told, the hype probably is a bit much, but with the tonnage of talent and a likely seeded position, they will easily be good enough for a round of 16 berth where a team that phoned it in during the group stage beats them, and starts the fears that another golden generation will go wasted.


Columbia
Contender Credentials--After a 16 year hiatus, los Cafeteros are back in business, but without the same starry-eyed hype as the Belgians (despite being ranked 1 spot higher in the world). Columbia's best performance came a little over 20 years ago when a young and impetuous team (led by my still beloved Carlos Valderamma) made a great run in Italy.
Pretender Problems--Valderamma's not on this team (which is actually probably for the best since he's now 52). The Columbian fan base has a tendancy to overreact and heap a little too much pressure on to the players (witness the epic wikipedia page and the horrible events surrounding defender Andres Escobar's assassination). It's little surprise that, like the overwrought Red Sox fans of decades gone by, the team's frequently underwhelms when they're expected to do well (both in continental and international competitions). Since they're expected to be good now...well...
Pie-In-The-Sky Scenario:  Like Uruguay in 2010, Columbia shakes up the established order of things as they rise up to the Semis while Brazil and Argentina get dumped out before hand.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Like Columbia in 1994, they think they can, they think they can, they think they can...and then they don't.
Prediction: Without a true leader at the front of the field, but a truly sinister back defense they'll get through the group stage but struggle in a Round of 16 exit.

In it...but Win it? #3: Early Birds

Most teams have a few games left to go before they know for sure if they can set aside a tonnage of unsatisfying hours wading through visa paperwork at the Brazilian consulate. But a few took care of their business in September and so have two months worth of "who-gives-a-#%*&!@$", as they prepare for next summer's World Cup.

Of course, just because they are going to the World Cup doesn't mean they're going to do anything during that World Cup. That's where our analysis comes in: as the glow of qualification starts to fade and the humdrum monotony of waiting for the matches to matter again begins, we're happy to buzz kill some fans and overindulge a few others.

Italy
Contender Credentials: Italy knows what it does well and does it over and over and over again. Like your friend who goes on and on about their grandma's ravioli or pasta putanesca, once you've got the recipe right, just do it again and again. For Italy it's simple: get one or two great strikers and a squadron of brutal defenders and let the rest take care of itself. They used it to great aplomb in qualifying, only dropping points to Bulgaria and the Czech Republic on the road and winning every other match they had.

Pretender Problems: Even the most consistent of stratagems could use a little tweaking now and then, as Italy discovered to their detriment in South Africa, where they were utterly lost against such titans as Paraguay, Slovakia and New Zealand. Italy's national team has been as tumultuous as it's national political scene lately, thanks in no small part to a man with all of Silvio Berlusconi's appetites and only slightly more self control: Mario Balotelli. Their recent style has been "not-quite-good-enough" to launch them to the top of Europe as frequent drubbings at the feet of Spain have attested time and again. Maybe, just maybe, one goal and a cloud of dirt may need to change if Italy wants a fifth title.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Balotelli keeps his head in the game, grind 'em out defense wins the day and manager Ceasare Prandelli takes over the Prime Minister's job to improve the nation as a whole.

Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Balotelli goes a little cuckoo banana pants, a new troop of minnows swallows up the Azzurri before Berlusconi announces his return to futbol.

Prediction: Back in the saddle again, Italy is plenty good enough to win their group and cruise through one round, but a new style wipes them out in the quarter finals. (I had to sit through too many matches against Billings to root for Italy completely)

The Netherlands

Contender Credentials: Widely seen as the best futboling nation to never win the World Cup, Holland came close in 2010 and is returning much of their same line up to the field. They positively dominated their qualifying group, with a single, inexplicable draw in Estonia halting their swift ascension to qualification.

Pretender Problems: Since finishing as runners-up (again) in South Africa, it's been a rocky road for the Oranje. Manager Bert Van Marwijk took the blame for an abysmal Euro Championship (where the Dutch went winless in three matches). And while an experienced line-up is a good thing, an older line-up is less impressive. How exactly the few young talents rising through the Dutch ranks will fare in the glare of a national spotlight is hard to say.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: They put their past behind them and claim the title that has unjustly eluded Total Football for too long. A strike force of Kuyt, Van Persie and Robben dominate up top and hoist the Jules Rimet trophy while Johann Cryuff looks on and cries.

Pits-of-Despair Scenario: It's Euro 2012 all over again. A difficult group stymies the Dutch progress and weaknesses at the back leave them crashing out while those Belgian heathens rise to the top of lowland soccer prominence. Johann Cryuff looks on and cries.

Prediction: I hope I'm wrong, but I think there's something slightly off about Holland. Great as it would be to see them triumph, I can just as easily see them 3rd in the Group Stage

Argentina

Contender Credentials: If you judge a team's ability to win the World Cup based on the calibre of their players, it's hard to argue with Argentina given that they have the consensus best player in the world right now: Lionel Messi. The last time Argentina had a playmaker of Messi's calibre (some kid named Maradona) they won their two titles and finished runners up at another. Always strong performers in Latin America, it's easy to tip them for greatness again.

Pretender Problems: As Spain has shown again and again, it's best to have a full team behind you. So as much fun as it is to watch Lionel Messi y los Pips, you have to wonder about their long term success (particularly when they only mustered a quarter-final spot in 2010, and Messi was not especially miraculous at any point of the tournament.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Messi engraves his name in the history books along side other World's Greatests and La Albiceleste triumph over Brazil in their rivals' own stadium.

Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Exhausted from a full season with Barca and with the best defenders from the world draped over him like a bed sheet on a frat-boy during a toga party, Messi can only get Argentina to the Round of 16.

Prediction: An under-the radar team (well as under-the-radar as Messi can be) without the mercurial Maradona on the sidelines and with a game plan that has Messi feeding other talents (Higuain, Aguero and Rodriguez) is a winner in my book. Champion.

The United States of America

Contender Credentials: Uncle Sam's Army is playing the best soccer in recent memory, buoyed by an array of extremely talented players who came of age just as soccer reached its critical mass here with the World Cup in 1994. Led by Jurgen Klinsman, whose tactical approach helped an underwhelming German squad overachieve in 2006, there's a surplus of confidence that we may at last be coming into our own.

Pretender Problems: Americans. A surplus of confidence. What could possibly go wrong? While the Yanks have dominated CONCACAF it has helped that Mexico is playing like a bored pile of dog droppings, and any team that aspires to the top 16 of the world should beat Jamaica, Panama and Honduras as handily as we have.  Can we keep it going against the truly great soccer nations of the world...probably not.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Klinsman is a genius, DeMarcus Beasly continues his Lazarus act, Landon Donavan stays interested, and the Americans pull a shocker and make the semis as they did so long ago in Uruguay.

Pits-of-Despair Scenario: We lose to Ghana (as we always do), England (as retribution for last time) and Iran (just because Sepp Blatter wants to prove a point). Klinsman is forgiven, we're just dumb Americans after all.

Prediction: There's too much talent not to make the second round, but not enough to do tremendous damage. Without a draw to stop me I'll be optimistic: Quarter Finals

Costa Rica

Contender Credentials: The forgotten power of North American futbol, Costa Rica has a habit of making other teams miserable. With an aggravating style of scrambled attacking and counter-attacking and an incensed fan base to make matches in San Jose as close to a sure thing as possible.

Pretender Problems: American Soccer Now rightly points out that Costa Rica is a forgotten power largely because they have forgotten how to use their powers, with Panama and Honduras taking the title of Central America's best in recent years. Like the US their qualification may not have come so easy if Mexico hadn't gotten in the way of that horrible gypsy curse.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: It's back to the glory days of 1990 when Costa Rica stunned the world (particularly Sweden and Scotland), and a horde of fans make the relatively short trip to spur them on to the quarter finals.

Pits-of-Despair Scenario: It's back to the drubbing of 2006, when Costa Rica got walloped by everyone they faced, and they were little more than an afterthought.

Prediction: Bryan Suarez and Joel Campbell are a good enough tandem to get a win against someone...but the draw has to go in their favor to avoid: 4th Place.

In it...but win it? #2 Australia, South Korea, Iran

We're ready to continue our look at teams that have qualified for the 2014 World Cup, by analyzing their chances as quickly as possible, thereby removing all responsibility for doing things well.

Qualifier #3 Australia
Contender Credentials: The Socceroos have quietly become one of the most consistent teams in the Asian Football Confederation. Building off a trip to Germany in 2006 (their last year in the Oceania Confederation), they have now made three-straight World Cups. Furthermore, the power of local players has become increasingly apparent as long serving national team members continue plying their trade in the top divisions of Europe, and increasingly do so along side well regarded younger players (24 year olds [GK] Mitchell Langerak, [F] Robbie Kruse and [MF] Tom Rogic).

Pretender Problems: Though heavily favored to qualify, Australia was totally lack luster in the first several rounds of qualifying matches, mustering just 1 in in 6 tries (though they did earn points in all their others). It's hard to imagine a team threatening the best in the world when they struggle with Oman as much as the Aussies did. Add in that favored veterans like goalie Mark Schwarzer are nearing 40 and the power house looks more like the old age home.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: The Aussies were playing it cool in the early go, but now are a force to be reckoned with, and with familiar hands helping the newbies they shock the world en route to the semis, while the lousy Kiwis stay home.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Worse than their qualifying campaign, one rank outsider beats them like an old didjeridoo while New Zealand shockingly makes the knockout stages.
Prediction: A few stellar showings marred by inability to finish the job leaves them just outside of the knockout stage--3rd in their group.

Qualifier #4 Iran
Contender Credentials: Over the last two decades Iran has had a familiar pattern--qualify, fail to qualify, qualify, fail to qualify. Though even in their failures they often come heartbreakingly close. They head to the tournament next year with coaching golden(ish) boy Carlos Quieroz at the helm, a man who led South Africa and Portugal to the Mondiale before doing the same for Team Melli and is as doggedly loyal and supportive of Iran in general as your friendly neighborhood Imam. Under Quieroz they have perhaps the most fearsome defense in Asia, ceding just two goals in the last round of qualification.

Pretender Problems: Ceding two goals was nearly two goals too many as Iran was tied with Qatar for third place coming into the month, only a startling offensive outburst from Standard Leige's Reza Ghoochannejhad boosted them in (largely on the back of a 4-0 romp over Lebanon). Iran also has a habit of promoting players attuned to the local political philosophy rather than those who are really really good (hence Ali Daei's 100+ caps...though his 100+ goals also have something to do with that).

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Slotted in a group with decadent westerners (and Israel) Iran crushes them all; then they do the same through the knock out stages until decimating the U.S. 10-0 in the final [this fantasy brought to you directly from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's brain]
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Quieroz implodes (as he is want to do) the goals dry up and all the players start drinking, swearing and saying provocative things like: "hey, whatever people want to do is cool with me, live and let live I always say" [this nightmare brought to you directly from Ayatollah Khameni's brain]
Prediction: The defense is not as effective on the world stage as it is in Asia and a dearth of goals (another Quieroz trademark), Iran finishes bottom of their group. But the players remain good muslims, inshallah [this dose of reality brought to you by everyone not named Mahmoud Ahmadinejad/Ayatollah Khameni]


Qualifier #5 South Korea
Contender Credentials: The fourth and final member of Asia's elite four teams: South Korea may have been playing the game the longest (assuming you count chuk-guk, which you should...if only for the name). They have a World Cup streak that might just shame the rest of the continent, having been to every Mondiale since 1986 (That's 8 straight to 3 for Australia and 5 for bitter rivals: Japan). Finally they offer perhaps the best developed and organized talent nurturing program on the continent, with national team fixtures (like Park-ji Sung) gladly making way for younger talents (like Son Heung-Min) that all routinely play in the top flight of international competition.

Pretender Problems: Chuk-guk is not futbol, and players who qualified in 1986 will not be taking the field in Brazil next summer. And for a talented team, the Taeguk Warriors sure didn't look like one in their final matches, as (on their home soil mind you) they needed an own goal to get past Uzbekistan and lost 1-0 to Iran. An onslaught of goals in Takshent nearly put the Uzbeks through and sent South Korea to the dread play-in...a pretty mighty fall from grace for a team that was on top of the group heading into last week.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Fueled by dynamic young talent, South Korea plays their most fluid style of futbol reminding everyone why they are the top talent in Asia and top their fourth place finish in 2002 by a solid three spots.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: The far flung players in Europe are worn out when they have to trudge to Asia for training and thence to South America for competition, finishing with three losses...meanwhile Japan wins the tournament and taunts Korea with it across sea, while North Korea takes their failure as a sign of weakness and attacks.
Prediction: Some underperforming European side [*cou{HOLLAND}gh!*] comes apart in their group and the Warriors capitalize to make their second straight appearance in the round of 16.

In It...but Win It? #1 Brazil & Japan

It's time to a for a new feature here on the Montana Hooligans! We've spent much of the last two years chronicling the ups and downs of the qualifying process of all those teams major news outlets rarely talk about. Does ESPN care if Lebanon topped Pakistan? Does Rupert Murdoch's sport empire bother to tell you what Guyana's chances are? NOPE! But we do because...well...because we're nerds.

We'll fit in GREAT!!

Yet, in just about one year we'll be down to just 32 teams in Brazil, so perhaps we ought to take a little time to look at serious contenders as well. So when teams punch their tickets to the final round of competition, we'll celebrate their accomplishment and then give you rapid analysis of their chances to win the cup--long before we know who they'll actually face and who will actually be on their team.

You might be asking, why should you do that? Well, we offer this analysis, not because it will be accurate or even useful, but because it will be funny and fast. After all, any one can give you accurate analysis in a few months, but we're happy to give you inaccurate analysis as soon as we can. (And if that's not a pitch to add us to CNN's broadcast team, I don't know what is)

Qualifier #1: Brazil

Contender Credentials: Start with the one of their many nicknames: Pentacampeão or "Five Time Champions". Brazil churns out championship calibre squads and players like the Disney Channel churns out future child-star rehabbers. Their joga bonito style of play is often imitated but never duplicated giving rise to the popular Brazilian saying: "futbol was invented in England and perfected by Brazil". And as host nation they get the regular home-field advantage that comes each World Cup, as teams out perform their expectations.

Pretender Problems: Between former coach Mano Menezes fielding young, untested squads that struggled at times, and recent rehire Luiz Filipe Scolari struggling even more in the run-up to the Confederations Cup, this is not your pappy's Seleção. They've fallen to 22nd in the FIFA world rankings, their lowest ranking...ever. They have now slipped behind Ecuador, Switzerland and Bosnia/Herzegovina, leaving them just one step ahead of Mali. How a team like that wins the World Cup? I do not know

Pie-In-The-Sky Scenario: The salubrious effects of playing at home rejuvenate Brazil and they steamroll every opponent enroute to their sixth championship
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Without clear focus in the attack, and with the pressure of their home fans around them at every turn, they crumble in a Round-of-Sixteen game for their worst performance in 24 years.
Our Ridiculously Early Prediction: A little home-cooking helps, but can't overcome natural deficits Semi-Finalists

Qualifier #2: Japan

Contender Credentials: Japanese football is clearly on the rise. Its best domestic players are battled over with the same passion you hear about around elite African or Latin American prospects (Shinji Kagawa of Man United to name but one). Manager Alberto Zaccheroni has crafted the best winning percentage of any Japanese manager since Hans Ooft nearly twenty years ago. Add to that a fourth place finish at last year's Olympics, a spot at the Confederation's Cup this month and an impressive march to qualification and you've got a hot squad.

Pretender Problems: Though they've had some success in recent cups, Zac Japan (so called in honor of its manager) has not yet won a game in the knock-out stages. And as well as they've played in qualifying, the best teams in recent years have played together or against each other far more than they play apart. The youngest players on the national team play in Japan, the more experienced players are scattered from England and Germany, to Russia, Belgium and Italy, making it more difficult to prepare as one cohesive unit.

Pie-In-The-Sky Scenario: Building off recent successes and spurred on by the largest Japanese population outside of Japan (1.8 million), the Blue Samurai make a shocking run to the finals!

Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Worn out by disparate club schedules and stuck in a difficult group, they continue their alternating pattern of stink-knockouts-stink-knockouts...with a decidedly stinky performance.

Our Ridiculously Early Prediction: There's too much talent to be ignored, but not enough to shock the world: Quarterfinalists