Shooting From the Hip: AFC Second Round

You don't get far in this world playing it cautiously. It's as much a part of the Montana spirit as speed-limit free highways and sales-tax-free beef jerky.

So when it comes to predictions, I'll shoot from the hip. Take a chance when I'm not exactly sure. Be blunt and direct and optimistic when I can be.

The second round of Asian qualifying was announced on Tuesday, and while it won't start for another month and won't end for another year, I figured it was best to make predictions within 48 hours.

The nearly-year long second round, 8 groups of 5 will play home and away. The winners, and the top four runners up, will move on to the final round. (That's where your odds as one team in 2 groups of 6 get a heck of a lot better.)

So who will reach those lofty heights?

Group A: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, Timor-Leste, Malaysia
Winner: The Saudis have the higher profile and the richer pedigree, but the United Arab Emirates has had the better run of form lately. With probably the softest competition around them, I'd guess Zayed's Sons have the best chance.

Dark Horse: Set aside the geopolitical turmoil and the fact that their leaders seem hell bent on getting Israel kicked out of FIFA, but Palestine likely offers the best chance at an upset. A squad built on non-local players will never coalesce perfectly, but their familiarity with top flight squads (as seen in a trip to the the AFC Cup in January) will serve them well.
***
Group B: Australia, Jordan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Bangladesh
Winner: This isn't quite a tap-in for The Socceroos but it's close. One of the dominant sides in Asia will have no trouble handling the rivals, the only real match to watch will be against Jordan.

A Socceroo tap in

Dark Horse: Speaking of Jordan, "The Chivalrous" have a strong case to make as one of the top sides in West Asia. They've had great fortune against the lesser sides of Asia (which definitely includes the Bangladeshis, Tajiks and Kyrgyzseseses--okay the Kyrgyz no offense meant), and by cutting their teeth in an endless series of friendlies against higher profile foes they'll keep that strength, take their lumps against Australia and move along.
***
Group C: China, Qatar, Maldives, Bhutan, Hong Kong
Winner: Loathe as I am to give them any credit, Qatar has put just about everything they have into developing a team that will match their stadia by 2022. And in case you're wondering, yes that does include pressuring foreigners into service (including Frenchman Dame Traore, Ghanaian Mohammad Muntari and Brazilian Luiz Junior). A strong 2014 was undercut by a truly underwhelming performance in the Asian Cup, but I think they'll be under pressure to get close this cycle--so they don't become the first team since Italy in 1934--the second cup ever--to host a world cup without having played in one before.

Dark Horse: I'm absolutely drinking Bhutan's Kool-Aid, but I don't care. The low profile, lack of film, high altitude home matches and general "do you believe in miracles vibe" makes the land of the Thunder Dragon an easy squad to root for. In the end they'd need to take points at home against both China and Qatar and sweep all matches against Maldives and Hong Kong, but hey, crazier things have happened.
***
Group D: Iran, Oman, India, Turkmenistan, Guam
Winner: With or without the recently departed Carlos Quieroz, Iran's got too much talent to miss out in this group. A debacle during a penalty shoot out at the Asian Cup this January shouldn't distract from the fact that they were easy front runners at the tournament and should be for this one as well. If they put their minds to it, I'm sure that young striking talents like Sardar Azmoun and Karim Ansarfarid could find some salient suggestions for the nuclear deal too.

Go Go Guam!

Dark Horse: Much as I love plumping for India (where I lived and worked for a few years), the baffling dark horse to root for is Guam. The rare American protectorate that actually IS an underdog, Guam garnered big headlines when they drew at higher profile Singapore. A squad filled with American college kids and MLS developmental talents might not do much against even average Asian sides like a dangerous Omani crew. But they are the ultimate dark horse.
***
Group E: Japan, Syria, Afghanistan, Singapore, Cambodia
Winner: It will take a lot for any of these teams to meaningfully challenge Japan. The Blue Samurai got an excellent draw despite a lackluster World Cup and Asian Cup. Still, they're at the top of the Asian standings and even if they don't consistently bring back European based players they should be able to handle these qualification rivals.

Dark Horse: If one of the other four sides can put together a consistent run against the other three they could pull a surprise especially with other second-tier teams (and Japan) playing so inconsistently. At a guess, I'd put money on Singapore which boasts a young squad with some internationally based players and more who work together at Lions XII bringing cohesion and confidence into the mix (not to mention avoiding the ...but when you lose to Guam...my whole confidence is undermined.
***
Group F: Iraq, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Chinese Taipei
Winner: Credit where it's due, Iraq consistently makes the best of an unusual and often trying situation. They've played the top teams in Asia very closely and make a habit of taking lower-ranked rivals seriously. A few foreign based players (including the Columbus Crew's Justin Meram) show continued promise and growth.

From Left to Right: Chanathip Songkrasin and Kroekrit Thawikan

Dark Horse: The biggest challenge for Iraq will be the frequent long-distance hauls to South East Asia. So the question for a dark horse will be any team who can boast a difficult home environment (to steal a win against the favorites) and real sway over regional rivals. By that standard Thailand is your most likely nominee (just winning the South East Asia Suzuki Cup, boasting a young and growing squad, consistent at home), but that's not anything I'd wager heavily on.
***
Group G: Korea Republic, Kuwait, Lebanon, Myanmar, Laos
Winner: Korea is still one of the preeminent powers in Asian football, perpetual status as bridesmaid's not withstanding. Their growing influence in Europe doesn't hurt matters, world cup qualification is now expected and the rivals here won't slow that down.

Dark Horse: Right now the hottest team for fans of Asian underdogs is Bhutan, but Lebanon was pulling the Cinderella story during the 2014 cycle. They're back again against two teams they beat on the road during the last set of qualifiers, higher regarded Kuwait and Korea. Though it ended with whimper in the final round of qualifying, the Cedars stood tall, and while Kuwait's a more likely runner-up/qualifier. Lebanon is still where my loyalty lies.
***
Group H: Uzbekistan, Bahrain, Philippines, DPR Korea, Yemen
Winner: The Uzbeks have long been a favorite of this blog. After all there's a strong corps of players being augmented by solid youth talents from a growing domestic league. They were in the hunt for a World Cup Spot until the final weeks of the last cycle, and they played well in the Asian Cup this January. Sure their president might be a nut job who made his daughters pop stars, ambassadors, corporate honchos, heirs apparent to the presidency, and then (at least in one case) political prisoners. But still, how 'bout that team, eh?

At least he didn't name them manager

Dark Horse: Maybe it's that they're the only reasonable country in the group. Maybe it's that their nickname is "the Street Dogs". Maybe it's that I'm afraid of Manny Pacquiao. But I feel like the Philippines might be poised for a surprising finish. Bahrain and Korea are both on the slide and Yemen is in turmoil while the Philippines has seen steady results and, in goal keeper Neil Ethridge, boast the only Chelsea trainee in the whole group.

***
12 Teams advancing to third Round (** signifies Top 4 runner up)
UAE
Australia
**Jordan
Qatar
Iran
Japan
Iraq
**Thailand
South Korea
**Kuwait
Uzbekistan
**The Philippines

3 On/3 Off: Asian Cup Edition

So, I was back on schedule, and then...yeah.

We hereby return to our summaries and catch-up of notable (and not-so notable) tournaments starting with the first federation cup of the new cycle: the AFC Asian Cup

On: Tim Cahill (Soccer Legend)
Tim Cahill is to Australlian soccer what Bronco Nagurski is to American football.

That is all.

Off: Australian Fans (Geopolitical Novices)
I'm all for hospitality, but Australian fans took it to a new level expressing their affection for North Korea. The Red Robot wasn't too likely to have a lot of fans in the stands, but that's as much for it's systemic disadvantaging of citizens as it is due to the country's small population. Cheer how you want to Aussies...but just remember that one man's satire is a nut job despot's eternal devotion.

On: South Korea
The Taeguk Warriors are certainly disappointed to have been forced to settle for a fourth silver medal since their last trophy in 1960. (Their four bronzes over the same time don't help either). But set aside the final standings and you can see a dominant squad that only trailed for 45 minutes (the second half of the final) and still managed a stunning equalizer in stoppage time. The resilient South Koreans are certainly worthy of a trophy, and I have every confidence they'll be gunning for one sooner rather than later.
Off: Japan
Meanwhile, Korea's primary rival, Japan's Blue Samurai, were underwhelming, topping a middling Group D before being on the back foot for 74 minutes against the United Arab Emirates en route to their eventual ouster in the quarterfinals. Combine this lackluster showing with the fuzzy and unfocused runs in Brazil both last summer and the year before (at the Confederations' Cup) and Japan doesn't look terribly well prepared for the future.


On: Asia's "Perceived" Third Tier (Uzbekistan/UAE/China/Iraq)
Recent form suggested that China and Iraq had no shot at the second round and that the UAE and Uzbekistan were too unknown to thrive in a bigger tournament. At the end of the tournament Iraq and the UAE finished 3rd & 4th, while China and Uzbekistan topped a group featuring more recent World Cup qualifiers (North Korea/Saudi Arabia).

Off: Asia's "Perceived" Second Tier (Saudi Arabia/Oman/Jordan/Qatar)
The Saudi's remain Asia's most baffling squad, with a fine pedigree and minimal results. The other gulf states with rising standards and results (Oman, Jordan and Qatar)looked totally underwhelming en route to their own early exits. And while none conceded as many goals as debutants Palestine, their standards aren't to compete against Palestine...it's to compete against the other top teams in Asia.

Happy Trails: 32-17

32: Au revoir, Cameroon
Why They Lost: Between Samuel Eto'o holding back, and Alex Song popping off, Cameroon's got no one to blame but themselves. When your biggest pre-tournament warm up is a spat over payment, your priorities are clearly elsewhere.
What We'll Miss: Eto'o's last stand and the chance to see the Indomitable Lions finally live up to the old accomplishments of Roger Milla.

31: Asiabi, Honduras

Why they Lost: Sure, Honduras wasn't very good to start with, but when you combine not being great with playing rough and rumbly at a tournament where breathing on a star the wrong way can get you carded and you've got a recipe for disaster.

What We'll Miss: The chance to point out Honduras as an example of how "tough" futbol can be to the haters in the world.

30: G'day, Australia
Why They Lost: Australia seriously suffered from a lack of ten other Tim Cahills. Ten more Cahills and they might actually have a solid chance at getting a point.
What We'll Miss: Tim Cahill...oh wait, he'll be touring the country with the MLS...then probably just the adorable "Socceroo" love that guy.

29: Sayonara, Japan
Why They Lost: Japan came out of the gates with one heckuva-a-half, taking the lead against a dangerous Ivory Coast team. After that everything came apart, losing to the Elephants, drawing with the Greeks and getting rocked by Colombia.
What We'll Miss: We may not like thunderstix, but man, Japanese fans do a great job of dressing up like crazy people for the world cup.


28: Be Omide Didar, Iran
Why They Lost: The shut down defense that carred Team Melli through the whole of qualification did not desert them when they got to Brazil, frustrating some of the best offenses from around the world until Bosnia finally broke through.
What We'll Miss: Reza Goochanenjad and Alireza Hagighi, both talented on the pitch and posessors of kickass hairdo's

27: Annyong-hi Kashipsho, Korea
Why They Lost: A full season in Europe, a flight across the whole of Asia to train, a flight across the whole Pacific to warm up, a flight to Brazil to compete. Worn down, exhausted, the Taeguk Warriors barely stood a chance.
What We'll Miss: I really do like the nickname Taeguk (Peace) Warriors...if you'd like a new nickname Dan Snyder, I'd suggest that.

26: Cheerio, England
Why they Lost: As cohesive and organized as England can seem, they lack the star power of a truly superlative scorer. Wayne Rooney's strong, but would be less imposing if he didn't have Nike behind him. Daniel Sturridge might be getting there but there's a ways to go. Unless you can find a way to make a Louis Suarezington, or Marvin Balotellingham III, they'll always looked outgunned.
What We'll Miss: The Sun's Apopleptic Headlines. Eternally entertaining.


25: Nante Yie, Ghana
Why They Lost: Players went on strike against playing due to lack of pay on Tuesday, then Kevin Prince Boateng and Sulley Muntari got in an altercation with a national team official leading to their expulsion and weakening their squad en route to a loss in the critical final match.
What We'll Miss: The Black Stars have always been a favorite of mine. I was torn when they lost to the US and worried when they came close to upending Portugal and stealing second place. I'll still root for Boateng and Muntari, and still root for the Black Stars, especially as more veteran players set up for another run in 4 years.

24: Do Svidanja, Russia
Why The Lost: I might be the world's leading Fabio Capello basher, but seriously, I have yet to see any of the skill that people drool over.
What We'll Miss: Making fun of both Fabio Capello and Vladmir Putin.

23: Adios, Spain
Why They Lost: Vicente Del Bosque knows what works, unfortunately he does not know what ELSE can work. The buddies, the pals, the squad that worked so well for the last three championships is still in place, whether or not it should be is another matter. Certainly, the piss poor showing against Holland and Chile suggests not.
What We'll Miss: Hour after hour of ESPN drooling over a Spanish dynasty and the "genius" of tiki-taka futbol

22: Arrivederci, Italy
Why They Lost: Hubris, thy name is Azzuri. After a sparkling win against England, it looked to be clear sailing against Costa Rica into the second round, instead they were inert and disinterested, doing nothing much of import. The final defeat to Uruguay was another unimpressive result waiting for divine intervention from the referee, only to be left wanting.
What We'll Miss: A couple of drops of blood from Giorgio Chiellini's shoulder.

21: Katora, Cote D'Ivoire
Why They Lost: One last foul. One last foul in the box that lost the draw, lost the point needed to move on and led to Greece (who had played worse than most of the other teams in this list) moving into the next round. They were a minute away...it's a shame, a real shame.
What We'll Miss: The classics: Kalou, the Toures and Drogba, and the newbies: Gervinhio and Wilfried Bony, pretty much all the talent out there

20: Vidimo Se, Bosnia/Herzegovina
Why they Lost: Like Andriy Schevchenko before him, Edin Dzeko is a tremendous scorer who can't do everything. He missed some golden opportunities, but his rivals came no where close to even creating them.
What We'll Miss: Edin Dzeko clearly should be a marked man around the world, it will be a pity to miss out on him doing the same in later rounds.

19: Zbogom, Croatia
Why They Lost: Dejan Lovren's late "penalty" against Brazil seemed to be a stunner, from which Croatia could never quite recover. They were playing from behind the whole time and never got their feat under them.
What We'll Miss: We've never loved Croatia, but we were okay with their jersey...it takes real men to wear picnic table cloths.

18: Ate Logo, Portugal
Why They Lost: Say what you will about Lionel Messi needing to show up at this tournament, Cristiano Ronaldo was almost nowhere and is rarely anywhere in the World Cups. A great cross to tie the US came after a lackluster 94 minutes, and a final goal to beat Ghana looked more lucky than good. Rely on him too much and you struggle through.

Coming soon to a league near you

What We'll Miss: Women coming to matches--without Ronaldo there's a little less to look at.

17: Ricunacungacama, Ecuador
Why They Lost: Ecuador played tremendously, looking great against Honduras, playing pretty well against France and looking for all the world like they had Switzerland beat. If they hadn't ceded that final second desperation goal, they'd likely have made CONMEBOL, 6 for 6.
What We'll Miss: Enner Valencia is pretty badass, but we're betting we won't have to wait four years to see him on tv again...your move Europe.

Waning Seconds: Groups G & H

Let's take a quick glimpse at exactly what must be done for teams to qualify, or, in the case of others not heading in to the last round of matches.

MORNING--
Germany V.s. USA
The Germans and the Yanks are in prime position to qualify, if they just draw with each other they both move on. The conspiracy theorists were in heated supposition within three minutes of Portugal's equalizer, and until the match actually kicks off they'll stay just that tightly wound. It would like take a bit of German support to keep it close as the US will be coming in from the sweltering heat of Manaus on just three days rest after a gutting tie. But if they can just muster a point, they avoid the wait-and-see-hope-for-goal-differential game.

Ghana V.s Portugal
Both the Black Stars and the Portugese need some help from the other match. A slaughter of either side is the only thing to save Portugal's lousy goal differential (though their own victory would be a big help)..the truth is that these evenly matched sides may well play to a draw themselves, but that will be no help at all.

AFTERNOON--
South Korea V.s. Belgium
The Taeguk Warriors have to get a win, and have not looked capable of it. But with Belgium on to the next round, they may be able to spring a surprising result and use that to their advantage. Even if Belgium doesn't rest up for the next round, they've scuffled against both the gritty Algerians and the haphazard Russians, so a win is not out of the question.

Russia V.s. Algeria
Russia HAS to get a win against Algeria, and at the start of the Cup I had predicted that Algeria would knock them out for good with a draw. I didn't think that a draw would be all Les Fennecs needed for a second place finish, but low and behold, that's the case. Whether Fabio Capello rediscovers his master touch, or the Algerians sort out another shock result, it's all up for grabs in the final match of the first round.

3 On/3 Off: Matches 30-32

We're through the second set of matches, and it's time again for a few key observations, and some revised predictions.

ON: Jurgen Klinsman "Miracle Worker"--Every move, every sub, every decision he seemed to make was golden. He can't clear the balls (Geoff Cameron) and he can't cut down the lanes on Ronaldo (Michael Bradley) but he has done a fantastic job strategizing the team in a position to win.
OFF: My Mother's Temper--I love my mom, but she has very little patience for passive, defensive, sock it in the back futbol. To her it's the "prevent defense" which prevents you from winning. That's what she blames the loss on, and it's easy to agree (Chris Kluwe went so far as to make that same joke on Twitter). You may know a lot about soccer Jurgen...but, this is America and in America there is one golden rule in soccer coaching: don't irk the moms.



ON: Eden Hazard--Even without scoring the goal himself, Hazard was instrumental in creating and crafting everything positive that came out of the Red Devils side today. The darkhorses haven't been as dominant as some might have predicted, but they're moving on thanks to Hazard.
OFF: Fabio Capello "Genius"--I have seen a fair number of Fabio Capello matches, and read even more that rave about his strategy...I have yet to see the two match up. Russia seems to move forward without any clear central idea and defend out of desperation rather than organization.

ON: Islam Slimani--Like Hazard for Belgium, or Messi for Argentina, Islam Slimani has been the integral part of every single converted attack and triumphant accomplishment for Les Fennecs. Of course, he plays a much lower profile part for Sporting Lisbon rather than amongst the legends of European futbol day in and day out...so Hipsters, you've found your man.
OFF: Jung Sungryong--The Korean keeper had a rough day to be sure, beyond getting blitzed by the oft derided Algerian attack, any stock that he might have seen rise in holding Russia is now utterly evaporated...it'll be back to relative anonymity between the posts for a K-League side soon enough.

Finally some revised predictions:
Before the cup I thought: Cameroon had a solid chance at a surprise berth.
Now? Few teams are as ugly all around as the Indomitable Lions who kicked off with a pay dispute and are set to wrap up their campaign in Brazil with a dispute as to who can play the worst.

Before the cup I thought: Spain would cruise to another finals.
Now? It's hard to see any team crash as hard and fast as La Furia Roja, but the absolute completeness of their debacle is absolutely astonishing. Are we sure nobody pulled an Invasion of the body snatchers on Vicente Del Bosque?

Before the cup I thought: I could make do without a tv.
Now? I've made it through these individual matches without, but as the games run simulcast starting tomorrow...there's danger ahead. (Note, I will be off to a work retreat from Monday evening through Thursday morning, but I will do everything in my power to keep up on the games...I do have daily posts queued up to summarize the multiple ways teams can and can't qualify, but I'm not sure these 3 On/3 Offs will keep up).

3 On/3 Off: Matches Fifteen-Seventeen

Now that every team has played at least one match we have a much better sense of who's on target and who's off, so in addition to our daily update of major themes and observations we have some slightly revised predictions to start off the second set of matches

ON: Algeria's Defense--The name of the game for upset minded sides at this cup has been to frustrate the big boys with sterling defense and capitalize on lapses in judgement. It worked for Costa Rica, it worked for Iran, and it nearly worked for Algeria. Perhaps the word will get out in the next round (assuming World Cup managers regularly read one of the least popular blogs in the whole internet), but perhaps my predicted Algerian upset draw against Russia is still in the cards.
OFF: Belgium Haters--Should you be in the camp who first thought Belgium was dangerous and then scoffed that they were suddenly overhyped, you can chuck the self-righteousness and come back to the pack. Marc Wilmots made solid half-time adjustments and Eden Hazard and Kevin DeBruyne never faltered despite 75 aggravating minutes. Sorry Hipsters.

ON: Son Heung-Min--The Bundesliga Wunderkind was by far the most dangerous man in the Warriors' attack, even though he didn't notch the goal, if he can get some space and some kind of service in the box, Korea's one goal may well turn into more.
OFF: Igor Akinfeev--My supposed "star" for Russia looked anything but, bobbling, bumbling and finally ceding a goal to the howls and despair of fans from the desolate wastes of Siberia to the desolate wastes of Vladmir Putin's heart. The complex, shifting Russian defense looked solid and unnerving for Korea, but if Akinfeev can't find his form it won't matter.

ON: Guillermo Ochoa--Not to let rival American keeper Tim Howard keep all the glory for himself, Ochoa grabbed both the ball and his moment with both hands. Having withstood a lousy patch of weather and questionable refereeing and now everything Brazil can fire at them, reports of El Tri's death are greatly exaggerated.
OFF: Long Range Shots--Mexico made their best efforts from distance, continuing a trend that has permeated a ton of matches in the recent days. Players feel like they can control the Brazuca ball better than most other recent World Cup balls, and the pile of goals confirms their assessment. But for every rocket goal there's a solid thirty high, wide and not particularly handsome.

And as promised some revised predictions


Before the Cup: I thought Holland was cooked
Now? If they can handle Chile (and after utterly neutering Spain, they can...) They'll avoid Brazil and be in the catbird's seat for the second round.

Before the Cup: I was sold on this tournament as Lionel Messi's coronation as a champion (complete with Semifinal/Final berth).
Now? Utterly lack luster support from his running mates and a combination of on form Vincent Enyema, tactically wise Iran and motivated Bosnia means that they may just scuffle rather than sail into the second round...where Ecuador, Switzerland and France all looked better.

Before the Cup: I thought all the kings horses and all the kings men, couldn't help America survive
Now? Between the tenacious defending against the Ghanaian onslaught and the Portugese plug-ugliness, I'm actively working to tamp down my expectations...no promises though.

Our partners at MacKenzie LowBudget Sports will continue their coverage, as pet pundits shift from Sidney the Dog to Mini the Cat...will she forsee four consecutive hours of Cristiano Ronaldo licking himself? We shall see...

Meet the Team: Korea Republic

PEACE WARRIOR!!

Nickname: Highlighting the patriotic symbol the Taeguk Warriors are a little misnamed...after all why would there need to be warriors fighting and destroying others in the name of "harmony and peace"?


Star: For all the criticism heaped on Mario Balotelli for being divisive, controversial and potential spoiled, he's never made racist overtones to Japanese players or publicly criticized both fans and coaches of the national team, but Ki Sung-Yueng has. The volatile Ki is the cornerstone of the Korean midfield, and has been instrumental in a range of Premier League successes. He might not have Super Mario's hair or rep, but he's every bit as integral to the team success.


Hip-Star: While every eye in Asia turns westward to the top leagues in Europe, there is talent at home. Like Ulsan Hyundai/national team full back Lee Yong, he might not have the k-pop hair cut or the international pedigree, but he'll fill a vital role to Korea's chances in Brazil, assuming you're smart enough to care about the fine art of defensive/protective soccer.

X-Factor: Korea may have to overcome the absolute worse case of jet lag in the whole field. With a host of players based in the UK, Germany, China and Japan, a friendly against Tunisia in Seoul at the end of the month and another in Miami a week later (v. Ghana in a Secretary General Showdown) and then a trip to Brazil, you'll forgive them if they're pooped. Worse still, not having played much in-squad cohesion can be a problem...because it has been a problem.

The Coach and the greatest moment

Coach: While a host of Asian teams fixate on bringing in an international gun slinger to buoy their hopes, Korea turned to local legend Hong Myung-Bo: Destroyer of Spain in 1994, Captain of the ship en-route to 4th place in 2002, Stalwart of the Defense, Mentor of the Youngsters. Now charged with managing the national team he helped thrust to prominence, Hong must manage bigger egos and even bigger expectations.

History: Bound for their 8th straight World Cup, Korea has quietly become one of the most consistent Asian sides. Though they're a long way from a repeat trip to the Semi-finals, they were one poor game against Switzerland (in 2006) away from being thrice-consecutive top 16 finisher.

Food: Tempting as it is to brine up some kimchi and call it good, I think a lighter, more creative Dasik (or tea snack) seems like a fine munchable for a matchday. Rice flour, honey and a variety of spices or seeds all in a bite sized treat. A fine bit of sophistication after all the fried meats I'm plotting to eat.

Every politician gets one mortifying
photo...this is Ban Ki-Moon's

Fool: Some fools are dastardly, some are stupid and some are just bang out of luck. Ban Ki-Moon has to be the final kind of fool. He seems to be an utterly capable, thoughtful, considerate and well intentioned leader. Unfortunately the world is inept, impulsive, rude and brutish. Sorry Mr. Ban...you have only your self to blame for this--most ridiculous of jobs.

Best Case: Never doubt the magic touch of Hong Myung-Bo. A cohesive-dedicated month of practice works wonders for the far flung squad as they top the middling Group H before losing on penalties for the second straight cup (this time to a golden boot bound Cristiano Ronaldo)

Worst Case: Exhausted players sleepwalk their way through a loss to Russia, yawn to a goalless draw with Algeria and wake up just in time to see Eden Hazard net the last of his hat trick goals to send them home hopeless in last place.

My prediction: Unlike the Japanese, I was bearish on South Korea at first, and became more optimistic as time wore on, largely because they've got the far more manageable group H--though Belgium will likely knock them down to second place. Beyond that--facing the brutal quartet of Group G (each of whom could easily top the entirety of Group H)--they're up against too much. 2nd Round.

Added Bonus: Hop in the way back for some Classic Korean Hip Hop. Here's the Seo Taji Boys (starting about 1:06)

In it...but win it? #2 Australia, South Korea, Iran

We're ready to continue our look at teams that have qualified for the 2014 World Cup, by analyzing their chances as quickly as possible, thereby removing all responsibility for doing things well.

Qualifier #3 Australia
Contender Credentials: The Socceroos have quietly become one of the most consistent teams in the Asian Football Confederation. Building off a trip to Germany in 2006 (their last year in the Oceania Confederation), they have now made three-straight World Cups. Furthermore, the power of local players has become increasingly apparent as long serving national team members continue plying their trade in the top divisions of Europe, and increasingly do so along side well regarded younger players (24 year olds [GK] Mitchell Langerak, [F] Robbie Kruse and [MF] Tom Rogic).

Pretender Problems: Though heavily favored to qualify, Australia was totally lack luster in the first several rounds of qualifying matches, mustering just 1 in in 6 tries (though they did earn points in all their others). It's hard to imagine a team threatening the best in the world when they struggle with Oman as much as the Aussies did. Add in that favored veterans like goalie Mark Schwarzer are nearing 40 and the power house looks more like the old age home.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: The Aussies were playing it cool in the early go, but now are a force to be reckoned with, and with familiar hands helping the newbies they shock the world en route to the semis, while the lousy Kiwis stay home.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Worse than their qualifying campaign, one rank outsider beats them like an old didjeridoo while New Zealand shockingly makes the knockout stages.
Prediction: A few stellar showings marred by inability to finish the job leaves them just outside of the knockout stage--3rd in their group.

Qualifier #4 Iran
Contender Credentials: Over the last two decades Iran has had a familiar pattern--qualify, fail to qualify, qualify, fail to qualify. Though even in their failures they often come heartbreakingly close. They head to the tournament next year with coaching golden(ish) boy Carlos Quieroz at the helm, a man who led South Africa and Portugal to the Mondiale before doing the same for Team Melli and is as doggedly loyal and supportive of Iran in general as your friendly neighborhood Imam. Under Quieroz they have perhaps the most fearsome defense in Asia, ceding just two goals in the last round of qualification.

Pretender Problems: Ceding two goals was nearly two goals too many as Iran was tied with Qatar for third place coming into the month, only a startling offensive outburst from Standard Leige's Reza Ghoochannejhad boosted them in (largely on the back of a 4-0 romp over Lebanon). Iran also has a habit of promoting players attuned to the local political philosophy rather than those who are really really good (hence Ali Daei's 100+ caps...though his 100+ goals also have something to do with that).

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Slotted in a group with decadent westerners (and Israel) Iran crushes them all; then they do the same through the knock out stages until decimating the U.S. 10-0 in the final [this fantasy brought to you directly from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's brain]
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Quieroz implodes (as he is want to do) the goals dry up and all the players start drinking, swearing and saying provocative things like: "hey, whatever people want to do is cool with me, live and let live I always say" [this nightmare brought to you directly from Ayatollah Khameni's brain]
Prediction: The defense is not as effective on the world stage as it is in Asia and a dearth of goals (another Quieroz trademark), Iran finishes bottom of their group. But the players remain good muslims, inshallah [this dose of reality brought to you by everyone not named Mahmoud Ahmadinejad/Ayatollah Khameni]


Qualifier #5 South Korea
Contender Credentials: The fourth and final member of Asia's elite four teams: South Korea may have been playing the game the longest (assuming you count chuk-guk, which you should...if only for the name). They have a World Cup streak that might just shame the rest of the continent, having been to every Mondiale since 1986 (That's 8 straight to 3 for Australia and 5 for bitter rivals: Japan). Finally they offer perhaps the best developed and organized talent nurturing program on the continent, with national team fixtures (like Park-ji Sung) gladly making way for younger talents (like Son Heung-Min) that all routinely play in the top flight of international competition.

Pretender Problems: Chuk-guk is not futbol, and players who qualified in 1986 will not be taking the field in Brazil next summer. And for a talented team, the Taeguk Warriors sure didn't look like one in their final matches, as (on their home soil mind you) they needed an own goal to get past Uzbekistan and lost 1-0 to Iran. An onslaught of goals in Takshent nearly put the Uzbeks through and sent South Korea to the dread play-in...a pretty mighty fall from grace for a team that was on top of the group heading into last week.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Fueled by dynamic young talent, South Korea plays their most fluid style of futbol reminding everyone why they are the top talent in Asia and top their fourth place finish in 2002 by a solid three spots.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: The far flung players in Europe are worn out when they have to trudge to Asia for training and thence to South America for competition, finishing with three losses...meanwhile Japan wins the tournament and taunts Korea with it across sea, while North Korea takes their failure as a sign of weakness and attacks.
Prediction: Some underperforming European side [*cou{HOLLAND}gh!*] comes apart in their group and the Warriors capitalize to make their second straight appearance in the round of 16.

Waning Seconds: ASIA UPDATE!

A few weeks ago we ran down how every Asian team still had a chance to qualify for the world cup.

Yeah...that's not so much the case any more.

So here now is a run down on how it can play out tomorrow as three more tickets are punched for Brazil and one serious squabble is set for September.

First Match

Yup...it's adorable

Australia plays Iraq in Sydney in the first game of the day. The Iraqis must be disappointed not to parlay recent AFC success into a World Cup bid, but they could always settle for ruining the Socceroos day.

A win for Australia sees them straight to Brazil, anything less and they have to stay up late to see what happens between Oman and Jordan

Group A Simulcast

The most thrilling part of qualification is playing right in the midst of another match that could just as easily determine your destiny. That's the situation for South Korea, Iran and Uzebekistan (Qatar too...but they were left in the dust on the last match day so a four way battle is out of the question).

South Korea's goal is simplest. Get a point at home against Iran and you're going down South America way. Having won all their home tilts so far this campaign it seems likely.

Jon Snow is rooting for Uzbekistan

If South Korea does win, Uzbekistan can make history by winning their own match and vaulting the White Wolves into their first ever World Cup. But if they draw or lose, they'll have to face the third place finisher in Group B for the chance to face the fifth place team in South America for a spot in Brazil.

And, then again, Iran can screw everything up (after all, it is Iran). A win and they're in. A Uzbekistan draw or loss, and they're in. But if Iran wins mightily (like they did against Lebanon) and Uzbekistan wins mightily, then South Korea crashes down to third place. OR, if Iran draws and Uzbekistan wins mightily, then they Ayatollah's favored 11 have to do the 5th-place-playoff.

And just in case entry to the most prestigious tournament on the planet isn't enough drama for you, now the Koreans and Iranians are jawing at each other about "poor treatment" "humiliation" and subtle hints at match fixing...I'm guessing that match will have a little extra juice to it.

Final Match

The real thrill of the day comes at the end of the day in Amman, Jordan, but it depends largely on what happens in Australia six-and-a-half hours earlier.

When even a little soccer blog
takes potshots at you...you should
be sad

The visiting Red Warriors of Oman could easily settle for a draw to solidify their spot in third place/the fifth place playoff (a new record for their nation), especially if Australia wins in which case they couldn't do better than third anyway. But if the Socceroos fall, the door opens for Oman and a victory would set an even better new record: World Cup qualification. (An Australia draw plus a seven goal victory of Jordan would also see them through...but come on, there's a better chance of Keanu Reeves winning a Tony award than there is of that happening.)

The home team will be desperate for a win, as they need all three points just to move in to third (an Australia loss plus a highly unlikely 8 goal swing in goal differential is the only way they've got to get in directly).

So there it is, six teams are set to battle for three sure thing spots and two awkward third-place will-they-or-won't-they playoffs.

Waning Seconds: Asia

In just a little more than a week, the last matches of AFC qualifying will begin and we will start slotting our first, official, not-host-nation entrants into the World Cup. As we approach these crucial three weeks worth of games, it's worth noting that every team could still work their way into the cup. And so we present (from most likely to least likely) the scenarios for who will qualify from the AFC

Already Looking At Airfares

Japan (Remaining Matches (6/4--v. Australia; 6/11--@Iraq)

They Qualify If: They get 1 point from either remaining match

They Go to a Play-off If: They lose both matches and Jordan & Iraq win all remaining

They Stay Home Next Summer If: A giant prehistoric lizard thing rises up from the Pacific and decimates Tokyo 

THAT WAY TO BAGGAGE CLAIM!

Confederation champions, top of their group, persistent qualifiers and all around dominant force of Asian football, Japan really is pretty good to go. It would take a pair of crippling losses to Australia and Iraq coupled with Jordan and Australia winning out in huge fashion to knock them down to the play-in games. (Since Jordan and Australia play eachother on June 11th, they'll have to do something pretty fancy in order to both win.) Realistically, if you love Japanese football, you can start booking plane tickets, pricing thongs, stocking up on sunscreen and taking Samba lessons because barring a total disaster, you're going to Brazil next summer.

A Game in Hand is Worth Two in the Bush...or Table Or Something

Right next to Japan in the pantheon of Asian football powers, South Korea and Australia are pretty solid bets for any World Cup now-a-days. And though neither are at the top of their qualifying tables, both have three games left to gain points and get into the final round of competition.

South Korea (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Lebanon; 6/11--v. Uzbekistan; 6/18--v. Iran])

They Qualify IF: They get a couple wins in their last matches

They go to Play-off IF: They get three points

They Stay Home Next Summer IF: Kim Jong Un gets an itchy trigger finger

All South Korea really needs is a point from each of their three final matches (@ Lebanon and home for Uzbekistan and Iran) and they're golden. Well...actually, all South Korea needs is a point from each of  their final three matches AND somebody to eliminate all the nukes in North Korea and they're golden. And hey, hit four points and you don't even need to worry about the continental play-off.

Australia (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Japan; 6/11--v. Jordan; 6/18--v. Iraq])
They Qualify IF: They meet expectations
They go to Play-off IF: They continue to underwhelm
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: The wheels fall off the wagon, the shrimp fall off the barbi, and the Fosters plant moves to Holland.

Things are slightly trickier for the Socceroos who have to start with Japan (in a definite struggle that might see them slip out of even third place). But their final two matches (at home versus Jordan [who can't win away from Amman] and Iraq [already beaten by Australia]) offer plenty of points to a merely competent Australian squad.

"Donnie, You're Out of Your Element!"

Unlike the first three teams I wrote about, Uzebekistan and Jordan would be big dance debutants should their current positions hold. But they have one less game to play than their more experienced rivals, and they have little control over what really happens.

Uzbekistan (Remaining Matches [6/11--@South Korea; 6/18 v. Qatar])

Do you recognize these men?

They Qualify IF: The young guns like Sanzhar Tursunov and Farhod Tojiyev pull out at least one big win.
They go to Play-off IF: The old timers like Server Djeparov and Timur Kapadze refuse to let a great start go wrong and get at least a point from each match.
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: All the players want to avoid awkward mispronunciations of their names on international television and they tank the last couple matches

Uzbekistan's youth program has been impressive of late and may make for a compelling dark horse in Brazil. But to get there they'll likely need at least three points to put themselves in the playoffs, and rather than banking on a win in Seoul on the 11th, they'll likely gear up for a more winnable match against Qatar in Tashkent on the 18th.

Jordan (Remaining Matches [6/11--@ Australia; 6/18--v.s. Oman
They Qualify IF: They finally pack their A-Game on the road and defend home turf (as usual)
They go to Play-off IF: They defend home but continue to scuffle on the road.
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They scuffle both home and away.

Meanwhile Jordan's Al-Nashama (The Chivalrous) have a more closely packed group with three teams behind them, all within two points of second place. Having failed to get a single point on the road in this group, Jordan has to head for Melbourne on the 11th, before closing out with Oman on the 18th. To be fair, the Socceroos have drawn both of their home ties this campaign, so a point in Melbourne isn't out of the question, but if The Chivalrous want to make King Abdullah proud, they definitely need the win in Amman (and then hope for a fair shot in the continental play-offs)

Literally...Everything to Play For

Iran (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Qatar; 6/11--v. Lebanon; 6/18--@ South Korea])
They Qualify IF: They want to live like heroes
They go to Play-off IF: They want to live
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They want to live like heroes of a revolution

Iran has a long and storied history in international football (like Japan, South Korea and Australia); they also have three games still to play (like South Korea and Australia), but they have a slightly more challenging task ahead of them. They're already 3 points back of South Korea, and need multiple results in their favor to pull ahead of Uzbekistan. They have to face the two underdog teams in Lebanon and Qatar whose whole campaigns hinge on beating Team Melli, before finishing IN South Korea.

Khameni prefers a 4-3-4

Then there's this: Iran's presidential election is scheduled for June 14th (between the Lebanon and South Korean matches). It will be the first election in Iran since the Arab Spring and the Green Revolution that threatened full scale rebellion during the last election (2009). Mahmoud Ahmadinijad will not be running. The Aytollah has blocked genuine reformers including former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani from candidacy. And the national team includes Masoud Shojaei and Captain Javad Nekounam who both suddenly "retired" after supporting the Green Revolution protestors publicly during their last qualifying campaign. Add to all of this the fact that qualifying for the World Cup is a welcome distraction from domestic troubles, but failing to qualify for the World Cup kind of, sort of, endangers really any ruling party in any country anywhere.

SO! If Iran beats Qatar and Lebanon, not only will they qualify for at least the continental play-offs, but the elections likely go off without a hitch, protecting players for another year or more and installing another hardline reformer who follows the will of the Ayatollahs. If Iran drops either or (inshallah) BOTH games, the populace (particularly young men with nothing better to do) will likely be dissatisfied, the elections are jeopardized and Shojaei and Nekounam (plus any other idealistic young athletes) have to face the awkward decision of whether they stand up with their fellow citizens and risk expulsion from the team [again] OR if they shut up and play out the string as their country roils from the inside out.

That's a little bit of pressure, wouldn't you say?

Clinging to the Cliff Face

I kind of want in on this party!

Oman (Remaining Matches [6/4--v.s. Iraq; 6/18--@Jordan])
They Qualify IF: They dominate their last two opponents and run up the goal differential
They go to Play-off IF: They just take care of business
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They decide they don't want to allow jabronis around the world to shout "Oh, man! Oman lost again!" and throw the last two matches

As we noted with Jordan, there are four teams bunched within 2 points of each other. And all that comes to a head when Iraq and Oman square off in Muscat on the 4th of June. A win for Oman and they can write their own ticket, they'll be just a point in Jordan away from a minimum 3rd place finish. 

Iraq (Remaining Matches [6/4--@Oman; 6/11--v.s. Japan; 6/18@Australia])
They Qualify IF: They rule and their opponents drool.
They go to Play-off IF: They do well and their opponents do slightly less well...
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They are average and their opponents are a little better than that.

Meanwhile, a win for Iraq puts the recent Asian title holders on a brutal final set of matches, at home versus Japan and in Australia. Best case scenario: Iraq beats Oman while Japan wraps up their qualifying with a win over Australia. Then Japan rests their stars allowing Iraq an easy three points in the second match, setting up a decisive final match against Australia (who pull a measly draw with Jordan in their second match), with momentum going all the way of the Lions of Mesopotamia. Worst case scenario: literally anything else happens.

Qatar (Remaining Matches [6/4--v. Iran; 6/18--@Uzbekistan])
They Qualify IF: They shock they world
They go to Play-off IF: They mildly surprise the world
They Stay Home Next Summer IF:  They totally underwhelm the world

And then there's Qatar the little nation that wants so badly to prove they aren't the corrupt ne'er-do-wells who swiped away the 2022 World Cup from other countries. Their chance to prove exactly that starts on the 4th in Doha where a win over Iran would go a long way to improving their odds (and ruining Iran's). Provided that Iran and Uzbekistan scuffle in their June 11th matches (against Lebanon and South Korea respectively) that sets the stage for Qatar to slip in if they win big in Uzbekistan on the 18th.

Slim To None

Lebanon (Remaining Matches [6/4--v.South Korea; 6/11--@Iran])
They Qualify Directly IF: They refuse to lose and other teams refuse to win
They go to Play-off IF: They refuse to lose and one team stubbornly meets expectations
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They accept their own limitations and find satisfaction in their accomplishments to this point.

We've been driving the Lebanon bandwagon for over a year and a half now. But there is only one path that can get our beloved Cedars into a qualifying scenario. They need to win their last two matches: against South Korea in Beirut and at Tehran and then hope that Qatar and Iran draw their own match (June 4th during the South Korea game) and lose/draw the rest of the way.

Any outright victory for either the Qatari or the Iranians and Lebanon would have to get a massive swing in goal differential, or a horrific plague of gout in the other countries...so, better win now.

Those are all the ways that Asian qualification could end. And while we would love to see Japan, Australia, South Korea, and the Uzbeks make it in (with Lebanon squeaking into the intercontinental playoffs) We have to admit, it's a tetchy possibility at best. 

One thing's for sure. Monday Morning Futbol is going to be a whole lot of fun for the next three weeks.

AFC WIBD Round 4: Stand Still and Conquer

We're back to the "Well-I'll-Be-Darned" awards, recognizing unlikely teams who still have a shot at qualifying for the World Cup Finals in Brazil.


We'll start with the team closest to qualification...the mighty Cedars of Lebanon the first team to ever win a regional WIBD Award two rounds running!

Yes, Lebanon moved on despite being the lowest ranked qualifier for the AFC's 3rd Round. This was a team that wasn't supposed to beat Bangladesh in Round 2. But they topped the Tigers and moved on to face the UAE, Kuwait and South Korea. None of whom they'd beaten in a World Cup competition over the last 20 years earning our praise in the process.

As many predicted, Lebanon suffered an early smack down at the hands of South Korea. But then beat the UAE at home, drew with Kuwait, beat Kuwait IN Kuwait City and pulled the biggest stunner of all: topping Asian giant South Korea 2-1 in Beirut to move on to the next round of the competition.

Despite my laziness and lackadaisical/nonexistent posting, Lebanon has continued on in the competition battling Korea (again), rising power Uzbekistan, fading power Iran, and embattled future cup hosts Qatar.

An early loss in Beirut to Qatar put the Trees on the ropes, and while they salvaged a point against the Uzbeks, another loss in South Korea have left them in dire need of as many points as possible, as quickly as possible.

Still, we remain optimistic that Lebanon can do just that. Start with the fact that the rest of the world has started to take notice. The UN used the symbol of a football team bringing unity to a war torn country as the basis for a unifying tv show. Even the BBC covered their rise to prominence. The Australian Socceroo's are a little worried ahead of an upcoming friendly match, and while Captain Roda Antar will be unavailable due to injury, the rest of the first squad should be available for the critical upcoming matches at home against Iran and in Qatar.

NOT Coach Bucker

Coach Theo Bucker (not revenge of the Nerds star: Booger) remains a focal point for the team. The players love him, even if the fans are dubious of his goalie choices, preferring local veteran Ziad Al-Samad, to Swedish based 23 year old novice Abbas Hassan. A summer time struggle to qualify for the regional Arab Cup increased the pressure on Bucker.

Still Bucker's got a vision to make the Cedars not just a success this year, but a constant presence in Asia's upper echelon, by mirroring the Japanese model of developing great local coaches and ensuring long term growth.

Nader Matar, a stylish young man
in need of a nickname

That effort will likely be helped by the rise of young international talents from the Lebanese diaspora. In addition to Hassan playing in Sweden other young talents like 22 year old Ahmad Zreik (in Greece) and Nader Matar (in Spain) promise to serve up balls to the prodigious young talent Hasaan Matoouk. {But seriously guys we need to come up with some nicknames, how about Nader "To"Matar? Huh? A little vegetable punning?)

It's been great to have a team not just to cheer for but to cheer for as they actually excel! We Montanan Soccer Hooligans will continue to rally as much support as we can for Lebanon. Fight on you mighty Cedars! Stand still and conquer!

Analysis our Way

The next round of qualifying has kicked off, home-and-away matches that will set the Caribbean and Asia alight with furious competition. While these matches may turn into do or die affairs for the players and supporters, we have the liberty of remaining aloof, objective, and totally uninformed.

In that spirit here are our previews of the next round of Asian and North American qualifying rounds: group by group, with special insight from our fellow Hooligans--Edemame Pajyamas and Celestial Aly

Don't fight it...she always wins

AFC

Group A What a special group. You've got a plucky underdog in Iraq, a hulking Goliath in China, a cast of diverse, quirky characters from Singapore and a mysterious unknown in Jordan. Given all those story lines to make movies out of, you have to think that the powers that be in Hollywood would love to see the Iraqis come through with China...if only for the chance to make a sequel. I'm sure there's a part in there for Zoe Saldana (eager, interpid reporter, maybe?) and whatever Zoe Saldana wants, Zoe Saldana gets.

Group B While we've already discussed Lebanon's chances, it should be noted that South Korea's track record, top flight talent and willingness to set themselves on fire for victory make them the odds on favorite to win the group. Second place should be a toss up between Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates: since their nicknames are the white and the blue we fully expect that Parisian fashion designers will let us know which one is in and which is out this season.

Group C Kim Jong-Il's son--Kim Jong-Un--can firmly establish his power base if he oversees his team's ascendency to the next round of the World Cup. The best strategy to do that would be to kidnapped and indoctrinate the Japanese and Uzbeki players who visit Pyongyang for matches in the country. So if something that unlikely happens (and hey, it's North Korea, so it might!) then it'll be North Korea and Tajikistan (by default, natch.)

Group D Sure the Saudi's and the Aussies are the top teams in the group, sure they've got a bundle of World Cup appearances between them, sure they are the most likely teams to win the group...but I don't own one of their jerseys. Buoyed by my support Thailand should slip in to the next round in group two...if only because they risk incurring my wrath if they do not.

Group E A hard group to handicap. Iran has a dangerous attacking squad but might be past it's prime. Rising young powers Bahrain has made great strides recently in suppressing the opposition (through force if need be) and you should never underestimate Qatar's resources and determination to prove themselves. And hey! I just realized that my analysis of each nation's questionable governmental structures could also be applied to their football...how about that!

CONCACAF

Group A Just look at the Dominican's line-up. Manny Ramirez, Albert Pujols, evenan aging Pedro Martinez is better than anybody that Suriname, the Cayman Islands or El Salvador could scrounge up...oh, wait a second...I got confused about which sport I was writing about...uhh...let's just say El Salvador.

Now this is a line-up that could
get all the way to Brazil!

Group B There's not a lot of soccer power in Guyana or Bermuda, but Barbados could have a great chance...if they could pull the trident off of the flag and use it to impale the opposition. Other than that there's nobody to touch Trinidad or Tobago (and with their powers combined...well, they're not quite Captain Planet...but they're close)

Group C With the Bahamanians already picking up their ball and going home, there are only three teams left to fight. It will be the first group decided, the first one that sends someone on to the next round, so let's just go ahead and say the first team listed alphabetically wins, congratulations Dominica!!

Group D Canadian's are already excited about their chances to get through--and who could blame them? On top of their talent, Canadian fans are prone to throwing things on rinks and fields of every size and shape--it's doubtful that their only real challenge (St. Kitts & Nevis) are going to know what to do when octopi, hats or maple syrup rains down on them.

Hipster Zombies prefer their brains
at gastropubs with chipotle aioli

Group E Group E is brought to you by the letter G as Grenada, Guatemala and Grenadines(/St. Vincent). For that reason (and no other) Belize wins the group.

Group F I've written before about the US Virgin Islands having as much chance as anybody in a wildly unpredictable group. But, even with all their struggles, the smart money still has to be on Haiti. They gave us the modern form of Zombies, now they can unleash a 21st century strain of zombie (hipsters oversaturated on zombie memes)

AFC's WIBD #2 (GO TREES!)

Yes, it's an eco-friendly version of the "Well, I'll Be Damned!"Minnow of the Round award as we recognize the most adorable of Asian underdogs: Lebanon.

Setting aside the unlikely ascent of Tajikistan (who lost two matches, then got into the next round anyway by virtue of Syria getting disqualified), Lebanon is easily the most rank outsider in the third round of Asian qualifying ranking in the bottom half of Asian teams. They are 21 spots below Bangladesh, even after a 4-0 drubbing of the Bengal Tigers in Beruit (Hey, even in soccer the Bengals can't win!)

Despite that big win (recapped in English here), there hasn't been much to

celebrate of late. First Lebanon slipped into the next round despite losing 2-0 in Bangladesh. Then they bid farewell to the coach who led them this far (Emile Rustom) and brought back old coach Theo Bucker (Booker? Booger?). Add to this the whole Lebanon/Hezbollah/Arab Spring/general unrest thing and you have a place that's not exactly conducive to sporting glory. (To be clear though, I have to give credit to Lebanon writer Kenny Laurie who wrote a scathing smackdown of Sepp Blatter)

If the Cedars are going to have any chance against the slightly more intimidating force of South Korea's Taegeuk Warriors and the White & Blue of the UAE and Kuwait, they'll need the very best of 23-year-old star-in-the-making Hassan Maatouk (he of the Futsaal fame, pictured at left). It probably wouldn't hurt to get returns from Roda Antar and Youssef Mohamed (two Lebanese stars who have built careers overseas), and hey, while we're at it maybe punch Srecko Katanec in the face (he who claimed the UAE would quote: "have no problem with Lebanon")...clearly Mr. Katanec does not know much about Lebanon.

All in all we here at the Montanan Hooligans' World Cup Center want to go green as we cast our vote for best underdog in Asia. So here's to you Lebanon and your Mighty Cedars! Go forth and conquer...oh wait, you're trees...well, just stand still and conquer!