Starting XI: January Transfer Targets

The clock is ticking away on 2013, meaning that it will soon be time to (1) stop talking about the World Cup in terms of "next year" and start talking about it in terms of "this summer", and (2) begin panicking about all the transfer moves to be made over the next month.

So we'll spend this month's Starting XI looking at likely folks to move, and next month we'll revisit our Starting XI "New Faces in New Places" post, to evaluate how well some of Brazil 2014's future stars have been doing.

I. Marco Reus (AM-Borussia Dortmund/Germany)
Joachim Loew's new favorite has been beloved by both local fans and national ones since his sterling performance in the 2012 Euros. A floundering Manchester United is rumored to be interested, and if Dortmund can't get their act together it might be in their interest to sell now rather than risk Reus walking away later.


II. Iker Casillas (GK-Real Madrid/Spain)
It's shocking to see Casillas' name on this list, but he has fallen so far from favor with Real's bosses (0 La Liga starts this season) that he may well need to move just to shake the rust loose before La Furia Roja's title defense starts this summer. (Note, everything I just wrote about Casillas can also be applied to Julio Cesar except, of course for the fact that Cesar doesn't play for the Galacticos, he plays for flippin' QPR! Why the hell?!?!? Okay, deep breath...moving on.)


III. Edin Dzeko (F-Manchester City/Bosnia & Herzegovina)
I saw Dzeko play against the US in a friendly last summer and came away thoroughly impressed with his pace and tenacity up top. Of course when you can buy more players than God that means relatively little, so Dzeko has gotten little to nothing in the premiership. The more he can play the better for his career, and the better for Bosnia's chances in a wide open Group F.


IV. Ivan Rakitic (MF-Sevilla/Croatia)
The stalwart of the Croatian midfield is another coveted target, despite a 40 million Euro buy out tag. With Croatia likely to tussle for runner-up against Cameroon, and Mexico in Group A this coming June, his form is critical to see. Whether playing alongside stars in Liverpool or Manchester helps him to spur his teammates to new heights or leaves him alienated wondering why all games can't be that easy...we will have to see.




V. Juan Mata (AM-Chelsea/Spain)
The superlative Spaniard has seen his time cut at Stamford Bridge, and could clearly benefit from some more time on the pitch if he wants to remain a key part of the Spanish starting XI. Juventus, Atletico Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain are among the big dogs sniffing around.



VI. Yohan Cabaye (MF-Newcatle United/France)
The English and the French have a tetchy relationship, but Cabaye looks to be going the way of Theirry Henry, straight into the hearts of every tried and true Englishman. Beloved in Newcastle, Cabaye is even more coveted by the likes of Liverpool, Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain. Having delivered the Magpies first win in Old Trafford in 41 years, it might be best to bid "adieu" now before the relationship sours like so much Bouche de Noel.

VII. Jeremy Menez (MF-Paris Saint-Germain/France)
The love is less apparent for Jeremy Menez in Paris. Laurent Blanc is leaving him off the pitch, and soon national coach Didier DeChamps might do the same thing. If Menez can get back into form with Juventus, AC Milan or top of the table Liverpool, it would be a boost for him. (But whether or not any of those teams have more room is debatable).


VIII. David Luiz (D-Chelsea/Brazil)
Turning our attention away from Europe for a little bit, the core defender for Flipe Scolari's crew is set to be one of the most pivotal (if underpublicized) players at next summer's cup. Goals win matches, but defense keeps matches winnable. The 26 year-old Luiz is, by all accounts, being regarded by Barcelona the way that a sketchy dude-bro regards a sorority girl with a glass of "Hypnotiq" on New Year's Eve.

IX. Jackson Martinez (F-Porto/Columbia)

In the battle to become option #2 behind Radamel Falcao, Martinez may need a little more of a challenge to convince boss Jose Peckerman to trust him. He has been dominating the Portuguese domestic league for sometime, leading many to wonder how the skills would translate to a tougher league (and whether or not he'd get the chance to show them at already stacked Arsenal and Liverpool)


X. Lacinia Traore (F-Anzhi Makhachkala/Ivory Coast)
There should be a special category for African players who are trying to get out of Eastern European teams. Even if Traore is buried at the bottom of the Elephants depth chart up top (Drogba/Kalou/Geviniho/Bony all best him), Traore is on the upswing at just 25. He'd be similarly squashed at Man United, but Monaco could have some strong opportunities for him to grow and earn his spot as the next generation for the African powerhouse.

XI. Kevin De Bruyne (MF-Chelsea/Belgium)
If Belgium is the darkhorse of the cup, then Kevin de Brune is the dark horse of the darkhorses. Less renowned than many of his fellow Golden Generation members, he's no less valuable to coach Marc Wilmots, even if Jose Mourinho has only called his name twice as a starter this season. His suitors are lining up, with Bundesliga stalwarts Bayer Leverkusen, Schalke, and Borussia Dortmund right beside the surprising Atletico Madrid.

At this stage it's all still conjecture as to whether or not any of these players actually move. But by gum, it's fun to blather randomly isn't it!?!

In it But Win It? #4: TGIF!

Last night was a great night around the world. Not only because lots of people kicked off their weekend in style, but because four more teams punched their tickets to Brazil.

But now it's Saturday morning and the cartoons are loud, the heads are pounding and reality starts to set in. They may be in the world cup, but can they win it? (I have no idea...which means I'm just as qualified as anybody else to be making irresponsible predictions now! WHEE!)

Germany

Contender Credentials--Do you see the three stars on the crest? Have you seen the ruthless, calculating, machine-like efficiency with which Germany decimates its rivals? If Germany's at a World Cup, its a contender for the title. Add to that the fact that the German Bundesliga, where most of the DFB-Elf is playing, is one of the strongest leagues in the world right now and you have a team of superbly trained, superbly coached, superbly prepared athletes  who are expected to make the quarter finals at the very least.
Pretender Problems--The strength of the Bundesliga (and the fact that the other main players in die Nationalmanschafft regular rotation play for such European luminaries as Arsenal, Chelsea, Real Madrid and Lazio) means that many players are likely to be exhausted when the World Cup rolls around. Then you've got a trip to South America and all the associated headaches.
Pie-In-The-Sky Scenario: Laser-visioned dedication, hard-work and great coaching strategies from Joachim Low see Germany to the title it has just missed in '02, and '06, and 2010.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Some kind of Greek/Portugese/Irish/Icelandic hex dooms Germany's favorite 11 to a bottomless pit of sovereign debt and a shocking last place finish.
Prediction: I initially was going to put them as losers in the round of sixteen...but come on, this is Germany we're talking about. They'll be runners up...again...sorry Germany.

Switzerland
Contender Credentials--La Nati cruised through a not all together easy qualifying group, besting recent World Cup qualifiers Norway and Slovenia as well as daring upstart Iceland. The mix of German and Italian families in Switzerland attempts to merge to successful styles of play and has been impressive in guiding them to regular appearances including a victory over Spain in the first group stage match in South Africa. The team is familiar with each other and with coach Ottmar Hitzfeld who has been coaching the same national team for an astonishing 5 years! (Practically an eon by national team standards)
Pretender Problems--As long as Hitzfeld has been at the helm of Switzerland they've been good but not great. Fans have come to expect strong workmanlike, but not transcendent victories. In a sport that values innovation and adaptability, being comfortable with a job and a coach does not always equate to being victorious with a coach. Add to that the fact that only midfielder Xherdan Shaqiri is likely to be making a run against top European talent regularly (as a player for Bayern Munich) and the Swiss may well "miss" in Brazil.
Pie-In-The-Sky Scenario: Someone, somewhere says "I want to play like insert name of Swiss player here" and makes their hearts glow as they lose in the round of 16.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Uncertain and unfamiliar with each other players tepidly execute Hitzfeld's game plan, which the rest of the world already knows and Switzerland is once again just a footnote on someone else's epic ass.
Prediction: Third place in the group, but at least one Swiss child gets excited by a well struck goal.



Belgium
Contender Credentials--The hype around the Red Devils has been humming for years now. Eden Hazard's tremendous play in the Premiership will do that, but the flood of young Belgian talent in the World's top leagues has buoyed their performances and boosted the Belgians to a number six world ranking.
Pretender Problems--That flood of young talent is a double-edged sword, especially since the Belgians haven't made a World Cup since 2002 when Hazard and co. were a bunch of prepubescent daydreamers. Much as we might like to have a new power emerge, there's a reason why so few teams have won the world cup...very few know how to.
Pie-In-The-Sky Scenario: The hype is real and they soar into the finals as an unheralded wunder-team.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: The hype is well...hype and intense marking of Hazard limits distribution and playmaking chances for others, forcing the Belgians into an embarrassing fourth place.
Prediction: Truth be told, the hype probably is a bit much, but with the tonnage of talent and a likely seeded position, they will easily be good enough for a round of 16 berth where a team that phoned it in during the group stage beats them, and starts the fears that another golden generation will go wasted.


Columbia
Contender Credentials--After a 16 year hiatus, los Cafeteros are back in business, but without the same starry-eyed hype as the Belgians (despite being ranked 1 spot higher in the world). Columbia's best performance came a little over 20 years ago when a young and impetuous team (led by my still beloved Carlos Valderamma) made a great run in Italy.
Pretender Problems--Valderamma's not on this team (which is actually probably for the best since he's now 52). The Columbian fan base has a tendancy to overreact and heap a little too much pressure on to the players (witness the epic wikipedia page and the horrible events surrounding defender Andres Escobar's assassination). It's little surprise that, like the overwrought Red Sox fans of decades gone by, the team's frequently underwhelms when they're expected to do well (both in continental and international competitions). Since they're expected to be good now...well...
Pie-In-The-Sky Scenario:  Like Uruguay in 2010, Columbia shakes up the established order of things as they rise up to the Semis while Brazil and Argentina get dumped out before hand.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Like Columbia in 1994, they think they can, they think they can, they think they can...and then they don't.
Prediction: Without a true leader at the front of the field, but a truly sinister back defense they'll get through the group stage but struggle in a Round of 16 exit.

Waning Seconds: October I--'Mericas!

We're nearing the end of the road to qualification, ten are in, fifty still have a shot, but only twenty-two spots remain. We'll keep narrowing the field of contestants this weekend starting with matches on Friday and continuing on to Tuesday when all that will be left are guaranteed participants and terribly nervous, play-off bound teams.

Europe is a mess [hey, look sport imitating life!], so we'll look at the ramifications of the final qualifiers closer to next Tuesday, but things are much clearer with North and South America. But since this is a blog from a Montanan perspective we all know there's really only one America that matters...OUR AMERICA!

So here are the qualification routes for the teams still alive, with as much rootin'-tootin' American-ized analyses as I can muster.

CONCACAF

We already have a spot in the World Cup, so the remaining two spots (one in the cup one in the playoff versus New Zealand) doesn't really matter enough to talk about.

...

Oh, okay I'll talk about it.

Jamaica has the longest shot at qualification, probably because they're too busy sipping delicious coconut drinks in hammocks rather than pulling themselves up by their bootstraps. Technically they could qualify if they beat both the US and Honduras while Mexico and Panama draw their first match and then lose their second matches. That's about as unlikely as a Sandals' beach vacation not being a colossal money suck.

Y tu Mickey? Wait...that was foriegn...
STOP IT YOU DUMB RAT!!

Mexico is finally getting their comeuppance for that border crossin', job theievin', consistently-contributing-to-our-growing-Gross-Domestic-Product-while-we-eschew-all-manual-labor-positions-and-humbly-accept-our-semi-racist-commentary-on-their-worth-as-human-beingin'. Okay, satire aside, a cup without Mexico isn't a good cup (and it might just hit our economy, not to mention Mexico's, pretty hard). So El Tri need to beat Panama in Azteca (a likely proposition) and then top Costa Rica (who should be resting their best players). A draw or loss in either makes things tough...in both it ends their hopes.

Panama perhaps the most successful team in Central America of late, Panama is also the home to a KICKASS CANAL!! ATTABOY TR!! WOOO!!! Oh yeah...Panama has the hardest road ahead of themselves. Needing a result in Mexico City and some points against the US. Difficult, but possibly duable.

Honduras is in the lead....for third place...SUCKERS!!...USA, USA! Four points will be enough to see them on to Brazil and since they get to face bottom feeding Jamaica and Costa Rica (who will probably be resting their best players), they should be heading for at least the intercontinental playoff.

CONMEBOL

There are four spots left (three for the cup and one for the playoff), two of them have already been claimed, but three others will fight for the remaining two.

Venezuela is experiencing what all misguided nations who give in to the siren song of socialism experience: a bloated bureaucracy, mildly-successful sports programs, and wide reaching social programs that don't shut down over petty partisan politics...SUCKERS! With only one match left, and a big goal deficit they need to crush Paraguay at home and hope that Uruguay or Ecuador (more likely Uruguay) flame out twice in a row.

To be fair...Luis Suarez might be able to handle this.

Ecuador and Uruguay are fighting to avoid the play-in game against Jordan and get into the World Cup directly. They face each other on Friday, in Quito, which means hard cheese Diego Forlan. While an Uruguay win would pressure Ecuador to get a win in Chile, an Ecuador win will pretty well guarantee Uruguay needs a miracle against Argentina...both teams will be playing to win. So you can pretty well count on it being a hard fight...not as hard a fight as Glacier Versus Sentinel in Kalispell this Friday Night. But, you know...a hard-ish fight.

Finally there's Columbia and Chile responsible for two of every American's favorite foods: Coffee and Chili. What's that? That was a gross misunderstanding of both geography and spelling? I'm sorry...I can't hear you over the sound of AMERICA BEING AWESOME!! [Guitar solo!!]. Anyway, Columbia has been phenomenal in qualifying and appears to be on the verge of not only going to Brazil but getting one of the 8 top spots in the seeding. Meanwhile, Chile has shown consistent improvement since their round of 16 showing in 2010 and can seal qualification with a win in either match.

Since their closest competitors (Ecuador and Uruguay) face each other in a frantic scrabble for points, the leaders of the pack may be tempted to lay back for a comfortable draw in Barranquilla on Friday, knowing that Columbia only has Paraguay left and Chile can seal the deal at home versus Ecuador.

But of course, whoever wins, whoever loses, whoever draws [shudder runs through American sports fans] we can all agree on one thing.

AMERICA RULES!!

(This concludes the satirical jingoism in this blog for--hopefully--ever.)