Shooting From the Hip: The Western Hemisphere (CONCAF/CONMEBOL)

With this summer's confederation cups wrapped up, International competition is about ready to refocus on qualification for the 2018 World Cup. Most people won't pay much attention to these matches for another two years...but those people aren't crazy Montanans (thankfully, or I'd have no niche market at all).

Since the qualifying draws were held two weeks ago in Russia, I've been positively deliberate in creating these predictions (oh, who am I kidding, I made the predictions on the day and only just took the time to write it).

We'll start our predictions in the Western Hemisphere with predictions for rounds three and four of CONCACAF (which will be wrapped up next year) and the single round of CONMEBOL (which won't end until the fall of 2017).

CONCACAF ROUND 3

August 31st-September 15 2015

Matches:

Curacao V. El Salvador

Canada V. Belize

Grenada V. Haiti

Jamaica V. Nicaragua

St. Vincent and the Grenadines V. Aruba

Antigua and Barbuda V. Guatemala

The Favorites:

In CONCACAF the safest way to predict things is to count on the higher ranked teams moving on, chalk talks in North America, with the lone possible exception at matches in Central America.  Haiti's recent form (including a game performance against the US and a draw against China--in China) has served them well enough to make them a heavy favorite over Grenada, and Jamaica's Gold Cup Silver Medal and Caribbean Cup victory certainly gives them momentum over Nicaragua. This draw also plays to those groups with Guatemala, El Salvador and Canada all facing minnows both of size and of history.

Some would say I cheer for McCaulay
and Belize because I like to mock Canada...
those people are right.

The Darkhorses: The most prolific scorer in recent CONCACAF qualifier history is Deon McCaulay who Minnesota fans may know best from a fourteen cap, three goal performance with the Atlanta Silverbacks last year. His 11 goals made him a co-golden boot winner from qualification alongside little known strikers Luis Suarez and Robin Van Persie. Some would point out that this is more a reflection of the paucity of CONCACAF defenses and the lack of a second option in Belize, but the truth is somewhat in between as McCaulay is indeed a force up top and a key difference maker for the Jaguars, even if it is about to set him up against a stout Canadian defense.

The only oddball match up is between underwhelming sides from St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Aruba where the "Vincy Heat" ceded 6 goals and needed away goals to pass Guyana and after a year off the field, Aruba came up goalless in two matches against Barbados, relying on Barbados disqualifying themselves to advance.

Qualifiers

El Salvador; Belize; Haiti; Jamaica; St. Vincent; Guatemala

CONCAF ROUND 4

November 2015-September 2016

Top Two Teams from Each Group Qualify for the Hexagon

GROUP A: Mexico, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize

Never gets old...unless you're the
Mexican FA

Favorites: Despite the run-of-the-mill (by team Mexico standards) coaching drama, selection drama and performance anxiety, El Tri is still a team to beat especially within CONCACAF. The days of Giovanni Dos Santos and Javier Hernandez as the heralds of a supposed "Golden Generation" have faded, but they still represent some of the youngest talent on a veteran Mexico squad. As ever, the only thing that can get in Mexico's way, is Mexico. 

Dark Horse: Though they are often the chosen whipping boys for beefier sides in North and South America, El Salvador boasts a young and growing squad that continues to cut its teeth in foreign leagues. My fellow Minnesotans may recognize Midfielders Dustin Corea (Edmonton), Richard Menjivar (Tampa Bay) and 24-year-old captain Andres Flores (New York Cosmos). "La Selecta" may be peaking at just the right time, particularly with a mishmash of a Honduras squad that has been erratic and best and dismal at worst since their qualification for last June's World Cup.

GROUP B: Costa Rica, Panama, Haiti, Jamaica

Favorite: Los Ticos set the world on fire with their quarterfinal appearance last summer, and nearly set themselves on fire to protest the match fixy unfortunate refereeing in their quarterfinal against Mexico. Truth be told the last three months have not been kind to Costa Rica, with scuffles against Panama, Colombia and Spain, and lackluster draws against Mexico, Jamaica and El Salvador.  Still, the talent and recent success of the team makes them the team to beat in Group B.

Dark Horse: It's a shame really, because I can talk myself into all three of the other squads cruising through qualification in Group C and having a better than average chance in Group A. While I've talked before about Jamaica's defense being its new found key to success (a 370 minute goalless stretch during the Gold Cup was instrumental in their silver medal), and though Haiti is an intriguing squad of international vagabonds (two play in NASL, two in India, and two in Cyprus), I think it's worth noting the perennially, unregarded Panama squad that earned its third place finish at the 2015 Gold Cup--and maybe even more thanks to the aforementioned idiotic questionable refereeing of any game Mexico played in. In Panama's last six confederation tournaments they've made the semis in five and they had the pole position for World Cup Qualifying in 2013 until a miraculous bicycle kick pushed Mexico on. Only one of those three teams will hit the Hexagon, and until proven otherwise I think it's Panama.

The Panamaian Version of Morten Andersen

GROUP C: USA, Trinidad and Tobago, St Vincent/Grenadines, Guatemala

Favorite: U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A! Seriously, who cares if we can't figure out a back line, create consistent service or find a second goal scoring option behind an aging Clint Dempsey, we're America dad blast it and we will win this group!! U-S-A!! U-S-A!! Klinsmann for Chancellor!!

Also, a Guatemala win is a win for
70s FA logos!

Dark Horse: Despite the Soca Warriors recent offensive outburst (built largely through veteran striker Kenwyne Jones) their swings in play (they lost to Curacao in May but won their Gold Cup group), make them an ideal target for an upset minded squad. Enter Guatemala (La Furia Azul) who have balanced veteran strikers with a young and energetic midfield many of whom play together at CSD Comunicaciones, the dominant force in the Guatemalan league. 

HEXAGON QUALIFIERS: Mexico, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama, USA, Guatemala

CONMEBOL

September 4th, 2015-October 10th 2017

South America does it simply: All ten teams play each other in a standard round-robin league style. The top four advance, fifth place takes on Oceania's best team (*HINT* IT'S NEW ZEALAND!) for a play-in (*HINT* THE SOUTH AMERICAN TEAM IS GOING TO SUCCEED!!)

Favorites: There's little point in rehashing how dominant Argentina has become, nor how quietly consistent Chile is and how ineffably promising Colombia appears. Those three squads, even with two years and 18 matches to play, look like easy qualifiers. 

Yes, Enner, I'm excited about your chances too!

Dark Horse: The far bigger drama is whether any team can snipe a spot from the aging giants of the South American game: Brazil and Uruguay. While Dunga's Brazil has been a Bizarro-World version of the Selacao that the world came to know and fear (and even the methodical branding machine that made Ronaldo's crew so ubiquitous), Uruguay has seen their recent success pull a quiet nucleus farther apart on the world stage making reunions and consistency difficult. The recent Copa America showed just how easily local minnows can outperform their higher profile neighbors, with Paraguay, Bolivia and Peru each offering a surprise. But CONMEBOL qualifying isn't a sprint, it's a marathon, and the only squad that looks equipped at that task (despite their own lackluster performance in Chile this summer) is Ecuador. With both big game experience and a habit of consistently seeking out tougher competition for the next generation to compete with, Los Amarillos have a solid chance to surprise, particularly if players like Jonathan Gonzalez and Carlos Gruezo see greater opportunities in the upper levels of foreign leagues to build their confidence with the corps of a national team based in country.

PREDICTED AUTO QUALIFIERS: Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Brazil

PLAY-OFF TEAM: Ecuador

Starting XI: Cashing In--World Cup Transfers and the Price of Beef Jerky

In honor of Labour Day, let's appreciate what it's all about: honoring the workers of the world...especially those who have made an obscene amount of money via the transfer window after the world cup. (I assume that was Marx's vision: "From each club according to their means, to each player according to a completely random sum of ever increasing money."



Let's go ahead and total the tonnage of cash expended in the last two months on players who grabbed eyeballs and earned screams from the various supporters and rivals in terms of how much they are making, and how much beef jerky (particularly--Hi-Country Top Quality Beef Jerky--11 ounce packages at $12.95 each) they seem to be worth

I. Claudio Bravo (Chile/Barcelona Goalkeeper)--10 Million Pounds Transfer Fee/1.28 Million packs of Jerky. 
The highest transfer fee for a keeper this window, Bravo is a more reliable and known property than the world's most darling keeper: Keylor Navas (who still drew in a handsome 8 Million from Real Madrid). His hard luck loss in the playoff round against Brazil didn't bother Barca, nor should it.


II. Luke Shaw (England/Manchester Utd Defender)--33 Million Pound Transfer/4.23 Million packs of Jerky
England's underwhelming performance wasn't laid at the feet of Luke Shaw. After all, his one match (v.s. Costa Rica) was the only one where the Lions kept the ball out of the back of the net. Shaw joined the exodus out of surprising South Hampton this summer heading for the read devils for a wad of cash, and an equal amount of Teriyaki Beef Jerky.

III. David Luiz (Brazil/Paris St. Germain Defender)--43 Million Pounds Transfer/5.49 Million packs of jerky

The most famous head of hair from the back line of Brazil, Luiz left the premiership for the more fashionable and stylish Paris St. Germain. With all the money and praise, one has to hope that Luiz recognizes that he can and should run...even if there are Germans against him.

IV. Elaquim Mangala (France/Manchester City Defender) 35 Million Pounds Transfer/5.46 Million Packs of Jerky
While Mangala, did not feature for France, there was still considerable enthusiasm for him, particularly amongst the Premierships most reliable money geyser: Manchester City. As he matures and grows, you have to hope that he's reliable in defense...or at least, you do if you're French.


V. Angel Di Maria (Argentina/Manchester United Winger)--65 Million Pound Transfer/8.3 Million Packs of Jerky
The most recent transfer (required once United started stinking like yesterday's fish) Di Maria had been having a fine World Cup until an injury 33 minutes into the semifinal left him sitting and staring as Germany triumphed. I imagine that he can dry his eyes on his huge piles of money...or his huge piles of Honey Kist jerky, which would be more absorbent.

VI. James Rodriguez (Colombia/Real Madrid Midfielder)--70 Million Pound Transfer/8.93 Million Packs of Jerky
The hottest name at the World Cup (hotter even than "Hansel"), James (pronounced Ha-mez) was the undeniable star of the undeniable tournament darling. He may well be the man in the middle for one of the most eagerly anticipated squads at Russsia 2018. But before then he'll be the heir apparent to Cristiano Ronaldo amongst Los Galacticos

VII. Antoine Griezman (France/Atletico Madrid Midfielder)--26 Million Pound Transfer/3.31 Million Packs of Jerky
Sure, there are other players who were deemed to be worth a little more money, but we've got a soft spot for Griezmann, our previously noted "Hip-Star" for the French squad, who did quite well in coverage for Franck Ribery. So well, in fact that Les Blus might have been the last real threat to Germany's title aspirations. Now he's on with La Liga champions and looking thoroughly eager for more glory.

VIII. Alexis Sanchez (Chile/Arsenal Winger)--33 Million Pound Transfer/4.23 Million packs of Jerky
When Chile was at their best in Brazil, it usually had something to do with Alexis Sanchez, darting, dodging, digging deep and doing other things that start with D. Now with the Gunners, Sanchez has perhaps even weightier expectations on his shoulders with Arsenal expecting a trophy at last. With that much heavy lifting ahead, he may want to invest some of his money in power packed protein of peppered Hi-Country Jerky!


IX. Romelu Lukaku (Belgium/Everton Forward)--31 Million Pound Transfer/3.95 Million Packs of Jerky
Lukaku is best known by American fans as "that-guy-who-crushed-our-dreams". But, as a herd of world cup fans make the segue to the Premiership, a large proportion of us seem likely to adopt Lukaku's new squad--the under awarded, highly enthusiastic Toffees of Liverpool. Just remember fellow hipster US/Everton fans--he did celebrate crushing our dreams by saying "Hi Mom"

X. Diego Costa (Spain/Chelsea Forward)--33 Million Pounds Transfer/4.23 Million packs of Jerky
The most valuable player in La Liga last year, the man who almost single handedly delivered Atletico Madrid the title (above Barcelona, above cross town rivals Real Madrid), he now has a chance to prove himself in the Premiership amongst the similarly high profile, highly paid Chelsea signings.

XI. Luis Suarez (Uruguay/Barcelona Forward)--71 Million Pounds Transfer/9.05 Million Packs of Jerky
The most expensive transfer of the summer is also, perhaps the most controversial. Infamous around the world due to his repeated and almost incomprehensible biting habits, Suarez completes a trio of world class South American strikers alongside Lionel Messi and Neymar. Unfortunately, in making those transfers, Barcelona has put themselves into a position where they will not be allowed to make any further transfers for a year. There are all kinds of comments to make here about Suarez, biting, money and jerky...but come on...Hi-Country doesn't deserve to be tarnished by association with Suarez.

Happy Trails: 16-9

16: Adios, Uruguay
Why They Lost: Generally speaking when your only real goal scorer is banned from competition for biting guys you're doomed.
What We'll Miss: Hating Uruguay (lousy cheating so and so's...)

15: O dabo, Nigeria
Why They Lost: Their low expectations were critical to helping Nigeria squeak through Group F, but they didn't have much offense if any to help them create, only Ahmed Musa looked willing to make things happen for the Super Eagles
What We'll Miss: Both Vincent Enyema's spectacular keeping and the fact that this team looked ready to distract people from the creeping cruelty of Boko Haram.

14: A Revair, Switzerland
Why They Lost: It was gouda of them to come and play, but I never really bris-lieved they would be a serious camembert...Seriously though, Switzerland was sloppy throughout the group stage, and only seemed to qualify due to Ecuador's rotten luck
What We'll Miss: Cheese jokes...my god the Cheese jokes.

13: Hasta La Vista, Mexico
Why They Lost: Pick your scape goat--Arjen Robben's floppery? The Ref's believing him? Or maybe Rafa Marquez for being chippy enough to be a dubious victim in anyway.
What We'll Miss: Miguel Herrera, please come be an AYSO coach, so you can bring your unique brand of freak-outs to us all.

12: Gim di Lehna, Algeria

Did someone say Islam Slimani?

Why They Lost: As infuriating as their defense was, Les Fennecs had a devil of a time breaking down defenses (other than Islam Slimani) someone, any kind of distributor would be valuable there.
What We'll Miss: The Fennec itself is pretty darn adorable when you get down to it, and add to that the fact that Algeria will be donating its FIFA prize money to the displaced people of Palestine and you have a pretty lovable crew

11: Totes Later, USA
Why They Lost: There's lots of things to pick out--lack of athleticism, Michael Bradley's maddeningly inconsistent play, overly defensive strategy, Jozy Altidore's injury...but I'm going to pin the blame on our inability to retain possession. You can win if you sit back and wait out  an early lead, but you can also win if you never give up the ball.

It's more fun to think about Tim Howard
than any of these other teams...

What We'll Miss: The chance to yell "TIMMY!" at inappropriate intervals.

10: Xaire, Greece
Why They Lost: Kaylor Navas shut them down in the penalty shoot out...after a tonnage of cards from the Australian referee gave them a better chance to win than they really deserved.
What We'll Miss: The butchery of Greek names and comments about how old their defense is.

9: Chao, Chile
Why They Lost: Since I've grown totally irrationally fond of him, I'll say it's because they pulled Gary Medel and didn't let him have a shot against Julio Caesar in the penalty shoot out
What We'll Miss: Being on El Rojo's bandwagon before it was cool to be on their bandwagon.

3 On/3 Off: The End of the First Round

While I was out of station for most of the last set of matches, I'm as gung ho as anybody for the start of the knockout rounds. But first, let's take a look at the major themes that came out of the last round.

ON: Colonies--For the first time in the World Cup's history three North American teams made the second round. Add to that South America's absurd success in sending 5 of their 6 teams through as well and you have a massive triumph for the Western Hemisphere...because those are extremely rare for us.
OFF: Colonizers--Who were the three most prominent colonizing forces in the America's? Spain, England, and Portugal: a trio with a wealth of soccer clout, experience and power. Who has been eliminated from the competition? Spain, England and Portugal. Who marches on Portugal's Brazil; England's old colonies, and ex-Spanish outposts stretching from Baja to Tierra Del Fuego.

ON: Africa's Old Guard--In 1982 Africa's single biggest stunner in World Cup History hit the coasts of Spain when Algeria knocked off West Germany, only to be denied a deserved spot in the next round by teutonic collusion when Austria and the Germans cock-blocked them. In 1994 and 1998 Nigeria emerged as Africa's first true power by making the knockout stages twice in a row, and while their star faded since then, they've always been lurking.
I really thought two African teams would make it to the next round--but I just assumed it would be the more potent sides: Ivory Coast, Ghana or Cameroon. Instead those teams were undone by a combination of horrific timing and federation/player feuds--if Africa wants to step up to the next level they need to get their houses in order, in the mean time, it's nice to know that someone will step up.
OFF: Asia's Everybody--After tremendous strides over the last decade, Asian Football took a step back in Brazil. The top squads were supposed to be Japan and Korea: bounced without a win and with some pretty ugly play. The worst squads were supposed to be Australia and Iran: proven to be more capable than initially expected, but neither could muster a decisive blow (and poor Iran only managed a consolation goal in their last match).

ON: My beloved Hipsters--Obviously, the big boys Antoine Griezmann and Ahmed Musa were a pair of genuine difference makers who led their teams to the next levels. Mats Hummels, Stefan deVrij, Gary Medel and Juan Guillermo Cuadrado created, delivered and stopped goal opportunities. All while Josip Drmic, Miguel Veloso, Ehsan Haji Safi, Juan Carlos Paredes, Marco Fabian and Atsato Uchida made strong contributions to their teams best showings. If only Boubacar Barry had made that last penalty save we'd have a full squad AND reserves.
OFF: Luis Suarez--Congratulations Luis Suarez, you have become a punchline. You can score all the goals you want, you can dump all over powerful rivals like Italy and England, you can be a national hero defended to the death by your loyal fans, but to the rest of the world, you're a joke. You're a cannibal, a Mike Tyson wannabe who won't ever get to make goofy cameos with Zach Galifinakis, Barcelona won't take you now and Liverpool's ready to cut bait, you can appeal--but who on earth will say "you're right...biting opponents on repeated occasions isn't that serious"? Give it up and go home.

Waning Seconds: Groups C & D

Let's take a quick glimpse at exactly what must be done for teams to qualify, or, in the case of others not heading in to the last round of matches.

MORNING--
Costa Rica V.s. England
Coming into the cup if you had said that one of these teams would be qualified and the other would be mulling whether to prolong their vacation or head home, you'd have heard most Brits agree with you...but it's the Lions heading home and Los Ticos preparing for the next stage. Like Colombia, Costa Rica needs to decide how much to push versus how much to rest, luckily so does England.

Italy V.s. Uruguay
Here's a tantalizing match up. Both teams need points to get the second spot in the group (and could-- with a theoretically large enough margin of victory and a British win over Costa Rica--top the group themselves and avoid Colombia). Italy could be through with a draw but Uruguay won't just let that happen, and since Pirlo has been proficient at picking out strikers on long breaks, bank on the Azurri to let their rivals bring it on, in the hope of springing an attack right after.


AFTERNOON--

Colombia V.s. Japan

Los Cafeteros are already through, but have been in fantastic form, so their question is do they keep the momentum going and build up to the next round, or do they hold back and rest for the pressure to come? That decision will have a major effect on Japan who has been sloppy and floppy in their last three halves of football. They need a win to have any chance at all, and don't look close to getting it from a full strength Colombia.

Cote D'Ivoire V.s. Greece
Les Elephants are on the verge of finally breaking through, finally giving Didier Drogba the knockout round shot he's deserved for 8 years. A draw would be a start--though they can't stand to see a two goal margin in Japan's favor as that would knock them out regardless of their victory over the Samurai, so it's safer to go for victory again. The Greeks are somehow still clinging to life, though they need both a win over the far more organized and energetic Ivorians and a Colombian win/draw against Japan. That's a lofty order, and the only thing lofty about the Greeks at the moment is their age.

3 On/3 Off: Matches Twenty-One through Twenty-Three

It's been a week since the cup opener, and we're rapidly approaching make or break time for a squadron of teams. How they fare will depend largely on how they are feeling heading into their final match. With that said, let's look at who's up and who's down after Thursday.

ON: James Rodriguez--For all the wailing and gnashing of teeth about the absence of Radamel Falcao, James Rodriguez has been more than equal to the challenge of representing Colombia and representing them well. Twice Man-of-the-Match, capable of besting one of Europe's top defenses, and flying over the legendary Didier Drogba for another, he's the Visa card of Colombia--every where they wanna be.
OFF: Wilfried Bony--We've been backing Bonny Mr. Bony since last August, believing that he's the future of Ivorian striking. Instead it's been the Gervinho show (though, clearly he's earned it). A Bony threat against the Greeks would go a long way to pushing the Elephants into an energetic, enthusiastic squad worthy of the last 16.

ON: Luis Suarez--The dominant force in Uruguay's great run of results in recent years was back with a vengeance not seen since Die Hard movies were thrilling and not silly. A couple great runs, a couple more lucky bounces, and always, always a cold blooded finishing strike. It lifts up all Liverpool during the winter, and it just crushed all of Liverpool (as well as Blackpool, Hartepool and Richard Branson's Mansion Pool) this afternoon.
OFF: My smile--Watching him steal a goal from Ghana was dastardly. Hearing him be hailed for it as "a gutsy team play" was stupid. Seeing him feted and hailed as a genius sets my teeth on edge. I don't like to root against people, so Mr. Suarez, while you are undoubtedly talented, I do not like you, not one little bit.

ON: Giorgios Karagounis--The first half substitute came on when Greece was at their lowest ebb. Down to 10 men, having lost top striker Konstantinos Mitroglou to injury, the old salt Karagounis came through with serious defense on Japan's top talent Keisuke Honda. With Honda limited to free kicks, the Greeks stayed in the match all the way to their bloodless draw.
OFF: Japanese Finishing--Seriously Japan? Seriously? The Greeks were down to 10 men. Their defense was exposed hither and yon by Colombia, and while you're not as impressive as they are to not get anything for an entire hour worth of chance after chance against a backup keeper...you can only miss so many golden chances before you and your lead footed finishing get exposed.

Mini celebrated her first right prediction today...namely that England would be full of stress but rejuvenated by a couple strong runs down the park. Of course, she didn't say that rejuvenation would lead to a win...so let's call it good. How she fares tomorrow with Switzerland and France set to square off for the marbles of Group E, we shall see.

3 On/3 Off: Matches Five-Eight

Saturday was a wild and wonderful day of futbol, covering four matches across the mass of Brazil featuring past cup winners, favorites, dark horses, and supposed also rans. Rather than giving an On/Off award for each match, here were the big themes from the day.

ON: Young Defenders--Oscar Duarte and Pablo Armero each struck a marvelous goal, taking their relative inexperience and lack of mainstream exposure and tossing it out the window. Speed, pace and strength served them well, both in shutting down their opponent attacks and in adding a new dimension to their team's attack.
OFF: "Veteran" Defenders--For all the talk that you need a strong veteran presence in the back to ground your squad during the game's premier event, it sure didn't do much to help two of the most veteran lines in the Cup: Greece and Uruguay. The Greeks got picked apart, and the Uruguyans looked first creaky, and then increasingly cranky when they drew a raft of cards to make an even bigger hole than their two goal deficit.

ON: Myth Making of Legends--Running errands, and experiencing life with my wife, I did not let the matches consume my day. But ESPN certainly has their opinions about what happened: "Balotelli Beat England"; "Drogba Distracts Japan"; "Colombia Overcomes the Loss of Falcao" and "Suarez's Absence Leads to Shock Defeat". Basically, if you're a star, you're responsible for everything...good to know, eh?
OFF: Role Players Grabbing Headlines--As a result of the ma-star-bating media, anybody else looking for some credit can just keep right on looking...the attacks of Junior Diaz and Christian Gamboa for Costa Rica...nothing; Claudio Marchiso's first goal for the Azurri...nothing; the Ivorians youthful combo of Wilfried Bony and Gervinho...nothing. Well, that's what we're for I guess.

ON: Loving Futbol--People who actually watched the matches are obviously fans first and critics second, but it was amazing to see the burst of pure love on Twitter for the game: Joel Campbell is suddenly everyone's must have transfer target, Daniel Sturridge has runs that are something out of a smart phone game, we're all watching and ranting and cheering together. That's what we love.
OFF: Hating Referees--After a pretty bad first pair of matches, the referee bashing has (thankfully) taken a back seat to the players, plays, events and actions. The more invisible the men with the whistles get, the better for all of us.

It's Father's Day so stay tuned for a special post on how my father learned to love the game alongside his sons. And also--you know--watch the big matches of the day: Switzerland/Ecuador, France/Honduras, and a great capstone: Argentina/Bosnia. 

Starting XI: Ridiculously Specific Predictions!

The World Cup is about to start, and while we could easily review all kinds of facts, features and factoids from the last month worth of writing, let's look forward to exactly what we think will happen once the talk stops and the games start.

I. Group A: With all the hype and energy around the opening match, a potent Brazilian offense and intense crowd, Defender Dejan Lovren will make a badly timed tackle that gets an overly exuberant card and alters his playing style for the next match against Cameroon...the Indomitable Lions take advantage and use the win to knock out the Blazers and march on to the second round.

The unlucky goats of Holland

II. Group B: Strong though they are, a critical error in passing between Bruno Martins Indi and Stefan De Vrij opens the door for Chile to take a tie-breaking goal in the second half for Chile and send El Rojo through to the next round.

III. Group C: A late goal by unsung midfielder Abel Aguilar, makes no difference, as Colombia suffers a tough loss to Japan. But it does keep Colombia's goal differential positive and keeps Los Cafeteros moving on ahead of the Blue Samuri

IV. Group D: Uruguay's offense sputters in the face of a hobbled Luis Suarez, but worse still is the fact that keeper Fernando Muslera, develops a terrible habit of giving up equalizers shortly after La albiceleste grabs the lead. While he stymies Costa Rica after giving up an equalizer, the offense can't cut loose and grab the lead back. Last cup's dream team crashes out in a trio of draws.

Les Blus new favorites

V. Group E: Antoinne Griezman's fantastic play on the wing for France, leaves very few moaning about the absence of Franck Ribery, particularly as he helps Karim Benzema to a pair of braces in the first two matches, en route to a group topping performance.

VI. Group F: Carlos Quieroz has a magic touch at organizing defensive mischief, with complex alternating schemes that frustrate both Eden Dzeko and John Obi Mikel in a pair of stunning victories to put Team Melli through to the next round.

VII. Group G: US Media blows it's lid when the ageless Asamoah Gyan scores again to give Ghana ANOTHER win against the US, with Fox News even snidely suggesting that this is what happens when you hire a German to do an American's job--not that they care about soccer at all (until Fox has world cup broadcasting rights). The tune swings back when the Yanks stun Portugal with Jurgen being hailed as a genius and everything ends in a muted pfft when they drop the final match to Germany.

Lacen practices how to shake a spy

VIII. Group H: Medhi Lacen puts his name at the top of the KGB hit list, when he scores a 83rd minute equalizer to deny Russia an obvious win and boost South Korea in a quiet race for runner up.

IX. Round of 16: Pushed to Penalties by Colombia, a strong Italian side comes unglued when Andrea Pirlo pushes it over the bar, in echoes of Roberto Baggio 20 years before.

X. Quarter Finals: On the verge of a stunning upset, Belgium comes undone as the workload of Thibaut Courtois is unravelled in 5 minutes of sterling futbol from Lionel Messi...an 89th minute bit of impossible creation and a gut punching through ball to Gonzalo Higuin in stoppage time ends the Red Devils run.

Ending where we thought...
But what a ride

XI. Final Four: Aching and hobbled after a strong challenge in the semi from Benedikt Howdes, Neymar pulls a Ronaldo-esque flu story line into the finals. Like Ronaldo he isn't much help, but a stunning feed from Paulinho to Fred sets up the Cup winner over Spain.

There's our overly specific, outrageous and easily foiled predictions...but hey, it's fun to think about how it will all play out--especially when it doesn't.

Meet the Team: Uruguay

Nickname: Uruguay set the tone for all nicknames going with the simplicity of the kit color: La Celeste--"The Sky Blue"


Star: No doubt about it, Luis Suárez is the star of the show, having passed his old running mate Diego Forlan to be the all time leading goal scorer in Uruguay's history (in 30 matches less than it took Forlan). Of course, he's also something of a nut job--what with the whole berating rivals, biting people's ears, and stymying other teams by playing goalkeeper for the hell of it.

Hip-Star: While I normally lean towards younger players you've never heard of, but given the tonnage of press that surrounds the strikers and Champions' League squads, it seems right to nod to Diego Lugano the veteran captain of the team, and a man who was just unceremoniously dumped by West Bromwich Albion earlier this month. Whatever man, his new stuff is totally underrated.

X-Factor: For all the talent and potential of Uruguay, there's a whole lot of inconsistency in the team too. They scraped the fifth place spot into the playoff against Jordan, and couldn't muster any wins against Cup bound teams away from home. Add in Suarez's tendency to exit early, and you may have the next victim of the Semi-final curse (See Turkey, Croatia, Sweden).

Still stinging Brazil

Coach: Óscar Wáshington Tabárez (No idea why he has the middle name Washington) has a smuch experience with his team as anyone. Having led the way through two entire cups, a semi-final spot and a Copa America victory, he has earned the title of "el maestro"--the primary school teaching helped too.


History: Sure it was over 50 years ago, but Uruguay are twice champions, including the last time the cup was held in Brazil. Of course that was when manager Tabárez was three years old...so they can't exactly draw on past experiences to help the cause.

Food: While Uruguay thrives on adopting popular flavors from other places in the world, most of them have already gotten a shout out in these posts. But not the Armenian contingent--so congrats Armenia, your Lahmajun stands in for Uruguay's food.

Dictator, or Bond Villian Minion?

Fool: The Economist recently named Uruguay, "Country of the Year"for 2013, which means we have to dredge up national history--fortunately there's martial law enforcing, torture endorsing, ex-president Aparicio Méndez. Good ol' Aparicio was also president during back to back failed World Cup Qualification rounds.

Best Case: Suárez stakes his claim to being the best striker in the world--fighting off Balotelli and Rooney in the group stage, tops Drogba in the second round, Villa in the Quarters, Messi in the semis and the Neymar in the finals for the third title.

Worst Case: Suárez draws a red card in the first match against Costa Rica, and Forlan's age catches up to him as they settle for a draw. Without him the team is no match for England, and the aging defense is even more exploited by Italy as they crash out in an embarrassing 4th place.

My prediction: Congratulations Uruguay, despite the educator's bond with El Maestro, you've passed Italy on the list of teams I actively root against. Sure it's spiteful and stupid, but so help me, that's the man I am. I'll grudgingly grant you a trio of draws as an exhausted Suárez falters in the heat...but that can hang you just as well as anything else. 3rd Place--3 points

Added Bonus: Let's close out the World Cup of Hip-Hop with an independent voice: MC Jo with "Vos y Yo"

In it, But Win It? #9: Better Late than Nevers

There's a sad truth about the play-off games for qualification to the world cup: often times they are easier to win than the regular qualification stages themselves.

Think about it. You're several points down, thrashing and battling with a continental rival who knows exactly how you're going to play and what you're going to do, because you've played each other dozens upon dozens of times, and your players face-off in club leagues on a regular basis. Sure, you could grit your teeth and charge head long into the face of certain death.

On the other hand, you could shrug your shoulders, let your rivals win and not worry about it, because in one month you'll get to kick the snot out of a group of part-time semi-pros from around the world who will be happy just to shake your hand.

So it is with the last two teams who qualified for the FIFA World Cup. Mexico and Uruguay. Both are talented, both should have been in long before, both got to beat up on a pair of lesser luminaries en route to their eventual destiny.

(What is that destiny you asked? Allow me to make a wildly inaccurate guess!)

Mexico
Contender Credentials: Mexico is and will always be the class of the non-power associations. They have been the most consistently excellent team not from either Europe or South America. They make the second round every time out, like clock-work and have, in Giovanni dos Santos and Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez a prodigiously talented top two striking combination.
Pretender Problems: Mexico has been playing abysmally for the last three-four years. The once nightmarish setting of Azteca means nothing to their fellow CONCACAF foes and they look utterly baffled by any pressure or difficulty thrown their way. Mexican fans are already despondent about El Tri's chances (as one of my students said: "we don't deserve to go there...we just don't.") On that, we agree lad.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Enrique Pena Nieto swings a free trade deal with Brazil just in time to offer Mexico City "drinking" water to every other country's training camp. Montezuma's revenge leaves Meixco victors by default.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: The team struggles to find their way out of their hotel rooms. The FA fires three coaches after each dispiriting group loss, and Mexico crumbles into their worst showing ever.
Prediction: Chichirito chokes on the biggest stage of his career, no body else has any idea of how to help. The ugliness continues 4th place.

Uruguay
Contender Credentials: The most dangerous team in South America: La Celeste combines all the creative prowess of three of the world's most feared strikers: Diego Forlan, Luis Suarez and (new gun) Edison Cavani. While the highly touted Brazil and Argentina went into South Africa as favorites, Uruguay was the only one still standing by the semi-finals, and pulled the same trick again in the Copa America.
Pretender Problems: Good as they were four years ago...it was four years ago. Forlan is on his last legs, Suarez has become the Diego Maradonna of his nation (both in talent and in bizarrely erratic behavior). The midfield is older and still underwhelming, so it will fall to the strikers to create their own chances...good luck with that.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Forlan finds the fountain of youth. Suarez finds the fountain of Adderall and a stout defense of Pereria and Caceras hold off all foes en route to a repeat of their last title...in Brazil...sixty years ago.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: The magic is all dried up and they play much more like the squad that struggled versus Venezuela than the world beaters of 2010. Only now there's no Jordan to beat up on.
Prediction: Forlan has one shining moment, Suarez does something sketchy, Cavani looks brilliant but exhausted and only a group of death (plus suspect goalkeeping) marks them out as a stunning underachiever. 3rd place

In case you haven't been keeping score at home: here's how I've predicted the tournament before I know who will be on the rosters and whom will be playing whom.

4th places: Iran, Costa Rica, Bosnia/Herzegovina, Honduras, Algeria, Cameroon, Greece, Mexico

3rd places: Australia, Holland, Switzerland, Russia, Ecuador, Nigeria, Croatia, Uruguay

16s: South Korea, Columbia, Belgium, England, Chile, Ivory Coast, France, Portugal

Quarters: Japan, Italy, USA, Spain

Semis: Brazil, Ghana

Runners Up: Germany

Champions: Argentina

That would require pretty much, this exact draw: