What to Watch for Worldwide in 2016

We spent the last few days reflecting on the teams that have bowed out of the next round of the world Cup in 2015. Now it's time to look ahead to the 2016 International Soccer Calendar and ponder what, if anything, matters to the average Upper-Midwest-Mountain-Time-Zone-Type Soccer Fan.

January 3rd: SAFF Championship--India
Forget your podunk Tax Slayer and Alamo Bowls, the first real hardware on the line this year will be awarded when India and Afghanistan meet in Kerala this Sunday. The Afghans have long dominated the subcontinent but are about to defect to a different subregion, meaning that India will soon be the lone giant in their area (as usual). The Blue Tigers have already been mathematically eliminated from the world cup qualifiers with two games to go, but they play throwback American footy. As in: a throw back to those late 80 days when 90% stadium seats were empty and even the best players were tentative. Ahhh memories. (You can watch the live stream here at 7 AM local time Sunday, but be warned there are no announcers, but feel free to invent your own.)


January 11th: Ballon d'Or Awards
AKA Lionel Messi wracks his brain to think of someone he hasn't yet thanked in an acceptance speech.

Uhh...my great-great-great grandma I guess?

January 12th-30th: Asian Olympic Qualifying/U-23 Championship
It will be interesting to see who makes it to the Olympics (I'm still riding the Thai War Elephants bandwagon), but what really matters is our sense of progress and organization in Qatar who hosts the tournament. Sure it's still 6 years off, and they've hosted an Asian Cup with more spectators and journalists, but the closer we get to 2022 the more we want to see wrinkles ironed out.

February 7th: African Nations Championship
You might be thinking...didn't Africa just play a championship last year? Yes they did, but this time they take only players based on the continent into their national teams, giving a slightly trickier job to the coaches involved. Unfortunately the late timing means that if someone has a great tournament they have to wait five long (injury-prone) months before they can become a transfer target again. But, as an added bonus, you can brag at that evening's Super Bowl party that you won the Office ANC Pool. ("What's that?" you can continue "your office doesn't have a pool for the African Nations Championship final? Well...I suppose we're just more worldly over where I work"--and that's how you win Hipster of the Year with 10 months to spare)

February 26th: FIFA's Extraordinary Congress
Sadly, it's not a congress made up of FA directors who are also steam punk superheroes. It's a bunch of officials running to replace Sepp Blatter as most derided and loathed man in the world. There's a full month plus of campaigning, including the possibility of a live ESPN debate around the world on January 29th so we can get more into the who, what and why and if you want logical, intelligent coverage rather than my style of mockery and pop culture allusions, Sporting Intelligence has just about everything you need to know to make an informed decision about who you would least dislike winning an election you can't vote in.

Be prepared to loathe one of these men for the rest of their professional lives!

March 15th & 16th: FIFA Meetings on Development and Cup Organization
AKA Shoot, people are watching us now...how do we "develop" our bank accounts like this?

March 21st-29th: International Break #1
The biggest piece in this session will be Asia's final round of second round matches, with a number of spots in the final round still up for grabs. The great stories of Bhutan and Guam have reached their disappointing endings, but there's still hope for Cinderella story runs for Thailand (coming of a trophy win last year), Hong Kong (who could qualify off the back of China) and Syria (who...holy hell what would their progression mean?).

May 12th-15th: FIFA Congress in Mexico City
The new president will have the eyes of the world on him as he announces a host of minor bureaucratic "reforms" that will either continue the devolution of power to an international base or set billionaire European club owners toes a-curling.

May 15-29th: COSAFA Cup--Windohek, Namibia
Bafana Bafana remains the dominant force in the region, but shockingly trail Zimbabwe and Zambia in total titles. With Zambia a dark horse for Wold Cup qualifying and Botswana and Angola riding a youth wave, there are some interesting story lines to watch before most teams settle in for three years of waiting for the 2022 qualifiers.

May 28-June 11: OFC Nations Cup/2nd Round Qualifiers

AKA New Zealand enjoys some lovely beach weather in Papua New Guinea and wonders how it can join the Asian Federation.

C'mon All Whites, look at this view

June 3-26: Copa America Centenario--USA
Ahh, the tournament that gave Attorney General Loretta Lynch the opening needed to whomp FIFA on the head with the reform stick (thanks Traffic Sports Marketing!!) For those who are still keen on seeing great international soccer (assuming it rises above the stink of bribery that it was built on) it's only 5 hours to Chicago which will host three first round games (including one US Men's National Team and one Argentine game) as well as a semi-final.

June 10-July 10: Euro 2016--France
The big tournament of the summer will offer answers to a few big questions: is Germany unbeatable? Can Spain and Italy bounce back? Are France and Belgium ready to join the short list of title contenders? Dare we dream of Irish, Welsh or Icelandic qualification? Who is destined to make Euro pundits giggle like star-struck teens before turning in a wildly disappointing next season and disappearing off the face of the sporting earth? Ohh, Euro season, how I tolerate you.

June 24: CAF 3rd Round Qualifying draw
While some strong teams still look indomitable (Ivory Coast, Algeria, Ghana) we've reached that stage of African development where often overlooked squads are on the rise (Cape Verde Islands and Congo), while older squads have faded just enough to create groups of deaths (Egypt and Nigeria). We'll have to wait and see how the groups shake out, but there's a good chance that three more spots will be in the balance.

Alright! More Cartoon Sports Enthusiasts

August 3-20: Olympic Tournament--Rio de Janeiro
Hey! A soccer tournament in Brazil! Move over pigeons of Manaus, we need that stadium again...for a couple of hours anyway. Seriously, the U-23 teams coming in from around the world should give a sense of which county's development programs may be bearing fruit in two years time (Denmark, Sweden, Honduras, South Africa, maybe just maybe the US--if they can beat Columbia in March).

August 29-September 6: International Break #2
Just a few weeks into the start of the new club season, and just six weeks after the Euro Championships, UEFA starts another round of Cup Qualifiers, and even San Marino dreams big (We lost 5-0 it's a miracle!!)

October 3-11: International Break #3
It's Africa's turn to start a round of qualifications based on the June draw for 5 groups. Assuming people aren't so pumped after watching the new Channing Tatum as Gambit movie to lose focus. They love their early-90s X-Men in Gabon!

Let's go, cher pantheres!

October 20-11: FIFA Meetings on Marketing and Television/Development
AKA "Dude, check out all the tv money we can...oh...dang it, they're still looking."

October/November: Central/East-Central African Cup (Possibly?)
Uganda has been on a great run of late, making the third round of World Cup qualifiers and winning their 14th regional cup. If (as Wikipedia seems to believe) there's another cup in the offing, the Cranes may be able to build themselves up more for a longer qualifying run (or run themselves ragged when they need to be fresh).

November 7-15: International Break #4
North American fans rejoice, it's time to start the Hexagon. Assuming the US can get past the Grenadines and Tobago, we will see more high stakes matches with local rivals Mexico and Costa Rica, whether or not we see that with Jurgen at the helm depends on your fondness for our resident Ubermensch.

Jurgen and his critics move to a slightly larger space

December: ASEAN Football Federation Cup--Myanmar/Phillipines
What a great way for Aung Sang Suu Kii to celebrate her first year in power! The Southeast Asian nations will run another tournament. With Thailand on track for their first final qualifying round and Vietnam still in the hunt, the AFF Cup might make a good tune up for those teams with big dreams, or salve the wound if it all falls apart. Plus, I hear the Nobel Prize winner's a pretty creative attacking midfielder.

Shooting From the Hip: The Western Hemisphere (CONCAF/CONMEBOL)

With this summer's confederation cups wrapped up, International competition is about ready to refocus on qualification for the 2018 World Cup. Most people won't pay much attention to these matches for another two years...but those people aren't crazy Montanans (thankfully, or I'd have no niche market at all).

Since the qualifying draws were held two weeks ago in Russia, I've been positively deliberate in creating these predictions (oh, who am I kidding, I made the predictions on the day and only just took the time to write it).

We'll start our predictions in the Western Hemisphere with predictions for rounds three and four of CONCACAF (which will be wrapped up next year) and the single round of CONMEBOL (which won't end until the fall of 2017).

CONCACAF ROUND 3

August 31st-September 15 2015

Matches:

Curacao V. El Salvador

Canada V. Belize

Grenada V. Haiti

Jamaica V. Nicaragua

St. Vincent and the Grenadines V. Aruba

Antigua and Barbuda V. Guatemala

The Favorites:

In CONCACAF the safest way to predict things is to count on the higher ranked teams moving on, chalk talks in North America, with the lone possible exception at matches in Central America.  Haiti's recent form (including a game performance against the US and a draw against China--in China) has served them well enough to make them a heavy favorite over Grenada, and Jamaica's Gold Cup Silver Medal and Caribbean Cup victory certainly gives them momentum over Nicaragua. This draw also plays to those groups with Guatemala, El Salvador and Canada all facing minnows both of size and of history.

Some would say I cheer for McCaulay
and Belize because I like to mock Canada...
those people are right.

The Darkhorses: The most prolific scorer in recent CONCACAF qualifier history is Deon McCaulay who Minnesota fans may know best from a fourteen cap, three goal performance with the Atlanta Silverbacks last year. His 11 goals made him a co-golden boot winner from qualification alongside little known strikers Luis Suarez and Robin Van Persie. Some would point out that this is more a reflection of the paucity of CONCACAF defenses and the lack of a second option in Belize, but the truth is somewhat in between as McCaulay is indeed a force up top and a key difference maker for the Jaguars, even if it is about to set him up against a stout Canadian defense.

The only oddball match up is between underwhelming sides from St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Aruba where the "Vincy Heat" ceded 6 goals and needed away goals to pass Guyana and after a year off the field, Aruba came up goalless in two matches against Barbados, relying on Barbados disqualifying themselves to advance.

Qualifiers

El Salvador; Belize; Haiti; Jamaica; St. Vincent; Guatemala

CONCAF ROUND 4

November 2015-September 2016

Top Two Teams from Each Group Qualify for the Hexagon

GROUP A: Mexico, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize

Never gets old...unless you're the
Mexican FA

Favorites: Despite the run-of-the-mill (by team Mexico standards) coaching drama, selection drama and performance anxiety, El Tri is still a team to beat especially within CONCACAF. The days of Giovanni Dos Santos and Javier Hernandez as the heralds of a supposed "Golden Generation" have faded, but they still represent some of the youngest talent on a veteran Mexico squad. As ever, the only thing that can get in Mexico's way, is Mexico. 

Dark Horse: Though they are often the chosen whipping boys for beefier sides in North and South America, El Salvador boasts a young and growing squad that continues to cut its teeth in foreign leagues. My fellow Minnesotans may recognize Midfielders Dustin Corea (Edmonton), Richard Menjivar (Tampa Bay) and 24-year-old captain Andres Flores (New York Cosmos). "La Selecta" may be peaking at just the right time, particularly with a mishmash of a Honduras squad that has been erratic and best and dismal at worst since their qualification for last June's World Cup.

GROUP B: Costa Rica, Panama, Haiti, Jamaica

Favorite: Los Ticos set the world on fire with their quarterfinal appearance last summer, and nearly set themselves on fire to protest the match fixy unfortunate refereeing in their quarterfinal against Mexico. Truth be told the last three months have not been kind to Costa Rica, with scuffles against Panama, Colombia and Spain, and lackluster draws against Mexico, Jamaica and El Salvador.  Still, the talent and recent success of the team makes them the team to beat in Group B.

Dark Horse: It's a shame really, because I can talk myself into all three of the other squads cruising through qualification in Group C and having a better than average chance in Group A. While I've talked before about Jamaica's defense being its new found key to success (a 370 minute goalless stretch during the Gold Cup was instrumental in their silver medal), and though Haiti is an intriguing squad of international vagabonds (two play in NASL, two in India, and two in Cyprus), I think it's worth noting the perennially, unregarded Panama squad that earned its third place finish at the 2015 Gold Cup--and maybe even more thanks to the aforementioned idiotic questionable refereeing of any game Mexico played in. In Panama's last six confederation tournaments they've made the semis in five and they had the pole position for World Cup Qualifying in 2013 until a miraculous bicycle kick pushed Mexico on. Only one of those three teams will hit the Hexagon, and until proven otherwise I think it's Panama.

The Panamaian Version of Morten Andersen

GROUP C: USA, Trinidad and Tobago, St Vincent/Grenadines, Guatemala

Favorite: U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A! Seriously, who cares if we can't figure out a back line, create consistent service or find a second goal scoring option behind an aging Clint Dempsey, we're America dad blast it and we will win this group!! U-S-A!! U-S-A!! Klinsmann for Chancellor!!

Also, a Guatemala win is a win for
70s FA logos!

Dark Horse: Despite the Soca Warriors recent offensive outburst (built largely through veteran striker Kenwyne Jones) their swings in play (they lost to Curacao in May but won their Gold Cup group), make them an ideal target for an upset minded squad. Enter Guatemala (La Furia Azul) who have balanced veteran strikers with a young and energetic midfield many of whom play together at CSD Comunicaciones, the dominant force in the Guatemalan league. 

HEXAGON QUALIFIERS: Mexico, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama, USA, Guatemala

CONMEBOL

September 4th, 2015-October 10th 2017

South America does it simply: All ten teams play each other in a standard round-robin league style. The top four advance, fifth place takes on Oceania's best team (*HINT* IT'S NEW ZEALAND!) for a play-in (*HINT* THE SOUTH AMERICAN TEAM IS GOING TO SUCCEED!!)

Favorites: There's little point in rehashing how dominant Argentina has become, nor how quietly consistent Chile is and how ineffably promising Colombia appears. Those three squads, even with two years and 18 matches to play, look like easy qualifiers. 

Yes, Enner, I'm excited about your chances too!

Dark Horse: The far bigger drama is whether any team can snipe a spot from the aging giants of the South American game: Brazil and Uruguay. While Dunga's Brazil has been a Bizarro-World version of the Selacao that the world came to know and fear (and even the methodical branding machine that made Ronaldo's crew so ubiquitous), Uruguay has seen their recent success pull a quiet nucleus farther apart on the world stage making reunions and consistency difficult. The recent Copa America showed just how easily local minnows can outperform their higher profile neighbors, with Paraguay, Bolivia and Peru each offering a surprise. But CONMEBOL qualifying isn't a sprint, it's a marathon, and the only squad that looks equipped at that task (despite their own lackluster performance in Chile this summer) is Ecuador. With both big game experience and a habit of consistently seeking out tougher competition for the next generation to compete with, Los Amarillos have a solid chance to surprise, particularly if players like Jonathan Gonzalez and Carlos Gruezo see greater opportunities in the upper levels of foreign leagues to build their confidence with the corps of a national team based in country.

PREDICTED AUTO QUALIFIERS: Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Brazil

PLAY-OFF TEAM: Ecuador

Happy Trails 194-185 (PLUS a rankings update)

As the summer international season is upon us, some heavyweight hardware is going to be handed out soon. The Gold Cup, the Copa America, the U-20 World Cup, and, most pressingly for many American's the Women's World Cup.

But tucked away in the far corners of the World Soccer stage there are other matches being played out, long before the biggest piece of hardware can be bestowed. We've completed another round of World Cup qualification, and much as we'd like to revel in the matches of the future, it's also important to recognize those who have fallen by the way side.

First, a bit of business. In keeping with rewarding teams that actually play matches, we'll be post-facto upgrading our last set of eliminated squads to make room for another team that was unceremoniously bounced without even playing a match. So Congrats Bahamas you actually went out in 207th place rather than 208th!

Your new 208th placed finisher
208: Sampa Jumpai , Indonesia (2014 Finish #139; -69)

President Widodo doesn't
give two figs for FIFA's "rules"

Why they lost: Drowned out by the cacophony of noise around Blatter's reelection and other officials suddenly at risk of massive Federal investigations was the news that Indonesia had been eliminated from the World Cup. At fault, the Sports and Youth Ministry's attempt to terminate the Indonesian Premier League Season and the National Soccer Federation that ran it because of the inclusion of Presebaya Surabya and Arema Indonesia (two clubs whose finances and operation had been called into question and were precluded from play lest they deny players/coaches their salaries and thereby incentivize match fixing). Surprisingly, Indonesia's president Joko Widodo responded with a clear cut "who gives a damn?" "this will help us focus on improving our domestic game." FIFA has very clear rules about preventing any kind of governmental interference, in order to protect players and officials from political scraps, that it also positions officials and executives as above local laws is just an added bonus.


What we'll miss: The team sheets released before they were banned showed that Indonesia was planning on bringing up 6 debutantes (along with 6 others who had 5 or fewer caps). They may not have had much of a chance of making it to Russia, but this international cycle was a critical time in the development of the next wave in Indonesian football, so, this plan to revamp the domestic game had better freakin' work.

194: Bon Swe, Dominica (2014 Finish: #158; -36)
Why they lost: As the lowest ranked team going into the second round, Dominica was always a long shot, but facing top ranked (at this stage) Canada was particularly brutal. When Canuck Keeper Milan Borjan was ejected twelve minutes from time (using his hands outside the box), Dominica still couldn't capitalize and a limp second leg in Toronto sealed their fate as 6-0 losers on aggregate.


What we'll miss: We are firm fans of any organization that uses cartoon parrot heads as some sort of intimidation tactic. For that reason alone, you will be missed Dominica.

193: Hasta la vista, Dominican Republic (2014 Finish: #148; -45)
Why they lost: Los Quisqueyanos can't seem to find much traction on the pitch (as opposed to the diamond), and while there's a major league training/scouting service seemingly every other city on the island, the football pitches are few and far between. Still, they were easy favorites against Belize, but their defense looked utterly out classed by the dangerous Deon McCauly who buried three goals en route to a four goal margin for Belize.

What we'll miss: The future is bright for 19 year old Geremy Lombardi, who equalized in the first leg (before the team ultimately lost on...surprise, surprise...a McCaulay goal), less than 30 minutes into his Dominican Republic career (note, that goal is also the only one the DR scored). The Inter Milan youth talent switched national allegiance after 11 showings as an Italian U-16 and U-17 talent. If he could bring some of Italy's excellent infrastructure, he might make the national team stronger still.



192: See You Later, Barbados (2014 Finish #159; -33)
Why they lost: This spot was originally occupied by Aruba, however FIFA decided to crack the whip against Barbados for accidentally fielding Hadan Holligan. Holligan scored the game winner and put the icing on the cake of a clear three-nil aggregate crusher. Instead he cost the country another round of competition.

What we'll miss: I've said it before, and I'll say it again. World football needs more tridents. Barbados brings the tridents. Enough said.

191: Doei, Suriname (2014 Finish # 152; -39)
Why they lost: It's rare that I get to blame legislation rather than performance, but that's exactly what I'll do! Suriname has a rule that players who move overseas are not allowed to return to play for the national team, that rule has deprived them of the chance of having stars like Clarence Seedorf, Edgar Davids, and Patrick Kluivert on their squad in the past. A bill to change this rule was encouraged by the national federation, but not voted on in time, ergo, the all local national team was run out on to the field, and then run off the pitch.

Seriously, his name is
DANZELL GRAVENBERCH!

What we'll miss: Both their elimination from the cup and the stall in legislation means that we're still a ways away from seeing center back Danzell Gravenberch suit up. The former Ajax Youth and Dutch U-19 player may be the team's best hope, and he also has the name "DANZELL GRAVENBERCH!"

190: So Long, St. Kitts and Nevis (2014 Finish #151; -39)
Why they lost: The Sugar Boyz went into their second lang in San Salvador tied at 2-2...the 4-1 thrashing at the hands of El Salvador was all they wrote and left St. Kitts ending on a whimper rather than a bang.

What we'll miss: Was the 69th minute goal in the second leg from Atiba Harris the last we'll see of him in the green and red? The most travelled MLS striker in memory has been a national team talisman for 12 years, he'll be 34 at the time of the next qualifiers. And if this is the end, get used to seeing St. Kitts down at the bottom of these lists for a long while.

189: Buh-bye, Bermuda (2014 Finish #146; -53)
Why they lost: A gritty nil-nil draw in Guatemala, set up Bermuda for a prime chance at the upset as they returned home. According to the twitter feeds of the suprisingly concerned Alejandro Bedoya and Mix Diskerud,  there were at least three Guatemala goals fishily disallowed and a black out in the stands, but Bermuda still lost and the cries of foul were easily shrugged off.

What we'll miss: Hudderfield's Nakhi Wells may be the most prominent up and coming Bermudan, but we hope to see more of the young keeper Dale Eve (he who ceded the winning goal). Eve was a 16 year old prodigy, sought after by both Man City and Stoke, and has since been on a ceaseless journey through the depths of non-league squads like Congleton Town.

188: Hasta Manana, Puerto Rico (2014 Finish #147; -41)
Why they lost: Despite a 1-0 victory in the first leg at Bayamon, Los Huracanes Azules couldn't seal the deal in Grenada, losing 2-0 with a clear difference made by defender Joan Morales, whose own goal added to Grenada's tally and removed any chance of penalty kicks and further good fortune.

What we'll miss: Not much, in fact we may end up seeing more Puerto Rican players without them heading off for national team duty,especially now that Minnesota fans are guaranteed to see the Puerto Rico Islanders stop off at the NSC in Blaine (at least for the next couple of seasons)

Please, please let this be Carmelo's next career move

187: See Ya, St. Lucia (2014 Finish: #157; -30)
Why they lost: If Puerto Rico's defeat was difficult, St. Lucia's defeat was crushing. Staked to a two goal advantage by a 3-1 victory, they had a comfortable edge ten minutes from time after a Kurt Frederick penalty made it 4-2 on aggregate. Then it all came undone, including two goals in 5 minutes of added time to give Antigua and Barbuda an official 5-4 win on aggregate, though they likely could have stopped one before to win on "Away Goals" (put in quotations because both matches were in Antigua).

What we'll miss: Honestly, I'll miss not having St. Lucia around to ask questions like "okay, seriously, did you legitimately lose this match or what...because this is crazy pants." Or to put that in terms Jack Warner would understand, "I'll miss not being able to rumor monger and conspiracy theorize".

186: Adios, Cuba (2014 Finish: #127; -59)
Why they lost: It's not always possible to pinpoint one player for being at fault, but Cuba's stunning defeat at the hands of Patrick Kluivert helmed Curacoa may come down to keeper Sandy Sanchez, who yielded the equalizer to Papito Merencia, and thirty minutes later was ejected from the match for legitimately fouling a Curacao striker. As Cuba pushed for a desperately needed winner in driving rain, they were stymied (and likely would have appreciated an 11th man on the field)

Sanchez in happier times (being beaten by the Comos)

What we'll miss: Now that we're normalizing diplomatic relations with everybody's favorite socialist island paradise/repressive regime, it's a shame that we won't get a chance to see Yanquis versus Cubanos on the pitch.

185: Goodbye, Guyana (2014 Finish: #129; -56)
Why they lost: Matched against St. Vincent and Grenadines, Guyana had no shortage of offense, burying 6 goals over two matches. The defense was more problematic as Chris Nurse (he of the Carolina Railhawks) couldn't stem the tide of six other goals coming into their net. Since Guyana scored two on the road, and St. Vincent scored four on the road...viola! Guyana is gone.

What we'll miss: We've plumped for the Golden Jaguars in the past, and as ever, we'll miss the chance to dram of a future where we own a real Golden Jaguar.

Why I Still Watch International Soccer

For fans of the beautiful game, it seemed like days like these would never come.

Soccer is front page news. It's being tweeted about, blogged about, photoshopped and meme-ified like nothing else in sports.


Of course, the majority of the soccer news is about just how corrupt, conniving and deplorable FIFA executives can be rather than how thrilling any match is, but hey, one step at a time.

 It may not be as adorable as Riley Curry, or as polarizing as LeBron James, or as unifying as American Pharaoh, but it has definitely captured the public interest (as anything that pops up as a go to joke for Drive Time DJs and NPR hosts has to). Unfortunately for those of us who really love international soccer season, it's a little aggravating to try to see past the clouds of corruption and the deluge of drama to get at the games.

"Besides," carp the wags and critics, "how can you support such a corrupt system? If you hate Blatter and Co. as much as the rest of us, why not boycott? Why not shut it off? Why not let them count their ill gotten gains in the sketchy back rooms of bureaucrats around the world?"

"Because," I respond, "this is beautiful.

"Because four years ago, women in Thailand and Ivory Coast were lucky to get half a bleacher full of people at their matches, now they're playing on international television.


"Because Adama Traore didn't ask for CAF officials to take bribes, he's just trying to play a beautiful game in a beautiful way.

"Because for every idiotic Jack Warner video/scheme/claim, there's a kid in the Caribbean who wants to walk out on the pitch next to the greatest stars in the game, and they see people who look like them doing it.

"Because Guam got a win, and Bhutan's still playing and so are Belize and Curacao and St. Kitts & Nevis, and just think how richer the game would be if the actually got all the money they deserved rather than what was left over after officials skimmed the top.

"Because these players: these inspiring and devoted women, children and amateurs, are bigger victims of systemic corruption than I am. And rather than ignoring them, rather than ridiculing, disparaging, dismissing or isolating them, I want to celebrate who they are and what they are doing.

"Because the game is beautiful, and commitment is beautiful, and a committed game in the face of all the other stupidity and corruption in the world is absolutely beautiful."

Author's note: I'll write about specific teams and players again soon, now that summer vacation has started I should have time to actually write consistently. [Crosses Fingers]

WIBD CONCAF Round 1: Anguilla

In keeping with my fondness for righteous underdogs, it's time to consider the wee minnows in our own backyard.  Or in this case, the dolphins in our own backyard


While the US has only a slight chance of hoisting the World Cup, their odds are decidedly better than their neighbors in the North American Federation, I mean, we're not Haiti, or Suriname, or Canada, and we are most certainly not the lowest seeded squad in the contest: Anguilla.

The Three Dolphins (who might be smarter than the Three Lions of England, but are also less likely to win a bar fight) are ranked 208th in the World after going almost three years without a match (a 1-0 loss to the British Virgin Islands). But recent form suggests they might have a better future ahead, after taking two matches against those self same British Virgins (Note: There's got to be a better demonym than that...oh Virgin Islanders of a British persuasion...that's better) in the last month as a tune up for their qualifier against Nicaragua.

Still, this is the World Cup, and Anguilla's never won a qualifying match. They haven't scored a goal against CONCAF opponents in a meaningful game like this since 2002, and have been dusted by rivals by a total of 28-0 in their last six matches. Their highest honor lately was making my list of 11 cool looking federation badges.

Girdon Connor (#2, Left)

Normally statistics like that don't matter, I mean, squads turn over, especially in a decade worth of matches...but...well...this is still Anguilla, and they're still a nation sparsely populated by footballers, so much so that 36 year old Girdon Connor (who has been on the squad since 2004) is still their top performer.

Facing all this, coach Ryszard Orlowski (a Polish refugee living in Pennsylvania who helped coach Nepal before taking over Anguilla) remains optimistic.  "We’ve won...games now and winning is contagious. Play our football and we will succeed.” Orlowski may have a point--after all, while Nicaragua has a squad filled with professionals, and consistent access to international competitions, so did Sri Lanka*.

Win or Lose, the Dolphins will keep playing, keep working, keep improving, and keep living in Anguilla. That's a pretty excellent way to live your life, all things considered.


*Note: "So did Sri Lanka" may become the rallying cry of every minnow in the wake of Bhutan's stunning upset...so...I may call "Trademark" on that.

Catching up the Cups: Caribbean Cup

When you have a job it's easy to lose track of the fun things in life: like minor international soccer tournaments.

So, as the new year kicks off, it seems only right to recognize some of the other tournaments in the world during 2014. Starting out with Caribbean Cup from November
ON: Jamaica's Reggae Boyz
Though they entered the cup ranked lower than everyone but Curacao (and the unranked minnows of Martinique and French Guyana), Jamaica was an all around force on their home turf at Montego Bay. They utterly demolished their rivals in group B and held the stronger Trinidad and Tobago side at bay for 120 minutes, before winning the cup in a shoot out. While Leeds United's Rodolph Austin won the MVP for his midfield work, it's hard to under state the effect of Andre Blake. The MLS top draft pick and former Husky goalkeeper shut down all comers after a 29th minute goal in the first match. That's 316 minutes of shut-out soccer and a job well done.

OFF: Trinidad and Tobago's Soca Warriors
Even thought they weren't the host, the Soca Warriors were the favorite, ranked 21 spots higher than anyone else in the tournament (Antigua/Barbuda according to FIFA), and 64 spots better than their rivals in the finals. And still they lost. They haven't won a trophy since 2001, and haven't made a dent in non-Caribbean Cup tournaments since the trip to Germany in 2006. I'm not sure what it's going to take for T'n'T to get back on the rise, but it's something other than this.

ON: Haiti's Youth Movement:
Les Grenadiers have a horde of talented youngsters (all under 28) populating the midfield, with the strongest players venturing far and wide to find the best careers, including Sony Norde (25) with Mohun Bagan (a dominant squad in India), and Jeff Louis (22) with Standard Liege in Belgium. While they were a little flat against Jamaica, the future's bright for Haiti.
OFF: Cuba's Old Guard
Relations were normalized shortly after the cup finished, but for the sake of Cuban futbol, the Castro's may want to keep beat downs from us Yanquis at arm's length. Since winning the 2012 event (on a scant 5 goals in 5 matches), the Cuban philosophy seems to have been: keep everything exactly the same (hey, it's worked for the economy for the last sixty...oh wait...never mind). Despite a couple of shellackings that saw them bounced from world cup qualifying, los Leones del Caribe keep trotting out 40 year old Odelin Molina in goal, and the similarly 30+ Jaime and Yoel Colome. I'm going to make a heretical request Cuba, get something new.

ON: The Ultimate Underdog--French Guyana
We're fans of underdogs in Montana, and it's hard to find a bigger one than French Guyana. How low is French Guyana in the pecking order of FIFA, you ask? Nowhere. They aren't even a member. How well did they do? 5th place, good enough to get them a crack at the Gold Cup playoff against Honduras in March. And given that Honduras just came back from a World Cup that may seem like along shot, but remember, Honduras played terribly and has generally been awful while dealing with the whole drug-war thing. Here's hoping French Guyana gets in and pulls a shock or two this July.

Jack Warner's "What Me Worry"? Look

OFF: Caribbean Officials
FIFA and "scandal" have slowly become synonymous, but it should be noted that more or less everybody involved in the caribbean football union had to resign over the alleged bribes paid by Mohammed Bin-Hammam in his ill-fated attempt to oust Sepp Blatter. (Included in the list the FA heads for Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, Jamaica, Guyana and the Bahamas, as part of 27 total warned, fined or reprimanded officials from 18 confederations). Does that have anything to do with the talented athletes? No...but I needed to mock someone, and my default position is to mock anyone linked to FIFA scandals.

3 On/3 Off: Copa Centramericano

Just because the World Cup is approximately 9 Million Years Away (Ed: Just 3 years and 9 months Captain Hyperbole), doesn't mean that international soccer is irrelevant. Sure, fans of the big names and star-power will tune in to league matches at a much higher rate than those die-hards in remote villages who tune in to fuzzy pictures on a rare satellite dish.

But as this is a "World Cup" Hooligan's website we'll keep you abreast of all the big competitions, and even some of the small ones. Starting with the recently concluded Copa Centramericano (Central American Cup) held in early September in the US (or rather: DC, Dallas, Houston and LA).

What are our big takeaways, well, that's what 3 On/3 Off is for.

Pretty good way to wrap up the summer

ON: Costa Rica's Domination
It's Los Ticos world in North America right now and the rest of us are just playing with it. The tournament might have been a mere formality after the quarter finalists took on a set of squads with an average rank of 117 in the world. Bryan Ruiz and Celso Borges never stopped, and Costa Rica can now gladly add $60,000 to their budgets thanks to their triumph (AND punch their ticket for the 100th anniversary of the Copa America in 2016...starring all of South America and the top 6 squads in North America).
OFF: Costa Rica's DOMINATION
Champions though they are, Costa Rica didn't exactly mow down the competition like Sonny Corleone at a tollway booth. It took 2 goals in the final ten minutes to scrape a draw against a very game Panama, and another comeback after ceding a penalty to Carlos Ruiz of Guatemala to gain the trophy. Los Ticos are good, no doubt about it...but maybe not that good (at least, not without Keylor Navas)

Who's your Pappa?

ON: Marco Pappa (Guatemala)
Case in point for Costa Rica's tempered optimism is Marco Pappa, who netted a pair of braces against Honduras and El Salvador (he didn't even pick on lowly Belize) en route to winning the golden ball and the golden boot for the tournament. That hardware will be fun to flaunt at Sounders teammates Clint Dempsey and DeAndre Yedlin.
OFF: Honduras 
Honduras takes home the fuzziest lollipop from the cup. Finishing fifth means they weren't the worst squad out there, but they certainly didn't look like the World Cup entrant from earlier this year (even when that World Cup Entrant was lackluster). Their only goals and points of the group stage came off of own goals by Belize (more on them in a minute) and the team didn't actually score until first half stoppage time against Nicaragua. So, yes, technically they are the fifth best team. Just like "technically" Honduras is still a country and not a Narco-Traffickers Jamberoo

ON: Panama Keeper Jaime Penedo
It won't come as a galloping shock to any Panamanians, but Jaime Penedo is pretty darn good. After a century of caps for Los Canaleros, he has now three sets of Golden Gloves to show off, and the set from the Copa Centramericano is decidedly the shabbiest of the lot (the other two come from Gold Cups). Aside from an ugly final 10 minutes against Costa Rica, Penedo was an absolute fortress for Panama en route to third place and a special spot in the Centennial Copa America.

Deon can't do it all himself boys

OFF: Belize Defense
I'm fond of Belize, I really am. The beautiful beaches, the wonderful weather, the English speaking, it's all great...even if I've never been. I'd love to see Belize do well in their competitions, if only so I could somehow, someway claim to a Belizean soccer expert and get myself a trip to Belize. But sadly, it's not going to happen if the Copa Centramericano sets the tone. Belize's defenders scored two own goals against Honduras that more or less sealed their fate before half-time. Deon McCauley did score for Belize (rather than against them)...but that's not a great statistic. 3 Times Belize hit the net...and twice it was their own...oof.

Meet the Team: United States of America

Nickname: It might be a little pejorative and mimic a pretty clear insult, but to heck with it...let's veer into the skid and call ourselves: The Yanks


Star: With Landon Donovan controversially off the roster and Clint Dempsey losing a lot of his cache from a year or two ago, our most recognizable star (with an endorsement or two to prove it) is Tim Howard. A solidly middle class kid from New Jersey who thrives on challenges and has overcome Tourette's syndrome to be a world class keeper.

Hip-Star: A lot of people have focused on the host of talented young players learning the ropes in defense and on the front lines. But enough about the future, let's appreciate a throw back: while he's unlikely to start, Mix Diskeruud is a perfect throw-back to American players of old. Blessed with energy, pace, gumption and a crazy hair style, he's a great example of American punk-kid playing in the old fart European game. So keep your German connections, we're rooting for the Norwegian.

X-Factor: The US has the single longest road to travel of every team at the cup, ping-ponging from southernly Sao Paolo to the Northeast, the Northwest and center of Brazil for all three matches. Jet lag is coming, one can only hope endurance is too.


Coach: Few players had as much thorough success at destroying American soccer fan hopes and dreams as Jürgen Klinsmann. I can still clearly remember his devastating second goal against the Americans in 1998 that began a slow decline to last place in the whole tournament. Now in charge of the squad, he's prized youth, athleticism and energy above experience and comfort, and has been rewarded with a 60% winning percentage.

History: Over the past 20 years, American soccer has slowly climbed from entertaining afterthought to a valued piece of our sports landscape--at least, valued by younger fans who don't succumb to fuddy-duddy reporter dismissals of the subject. Qualification isn't noteworthy, it's expected, and soon it seems we'll expect to make the second stage of every world competition. Whether or not we can catch quarterfinal lightning in a bottle as we did in Japan/Korea has yet to be seen.

Food: Like Switzerland, the US has a hodgepodge of flavors in our "cuisine", and while we're fans of all things sausage--hot dogs anyone?--it's hard to avoid the simplicity of American as Apple Pie.

Fool: No doubt about it, America has their share of stupid politicians: the ignorant, the arrogant, and the corrupt. But rather than slam the Tea Party as a whole, we'll pick on the American government's representative at the games: Vice President/National Crazy Uncle Joe Biden. All the malaprops, the profanities, the cranky old-man mannerisms, and best of all--the Onion articles awaiting every match.

Best Case: With focus and energy of Klinsmann we can get over the hump against Ghana, and stun Portugal before the mandatory loss to Germany. If you can beat Portugal, you can top Belgium, and  from there you just have to hope that Argentina has an injury, but more than likely you should just appreciate the Quarterfinals.

Worst Case: Jürgen's presence is a clear reminder of 1998...and in the worst case, it's not the only one. An opening embarrassment leads to an unstoppable slide into another goalless 4th place finish.

My prediction: Pleased as I am to see the US of A firmly entrenched as a World Cup participant, and burgeoning soccer power, I'm not naive. Ghana is our boogeyman, Portugal is our patsy of the year, and Germany is...well...Germany. We're close to hanging with the big boys, but not this close. 4th Place--3 points

Added Bonus:  As the birthplace of hip-hop we have more than our share of likely candidates for this spot, but we'll give credit to Action Bronson for "It's Me" largely for working "Zinadine Zidane" into his rhyme.

Meet the Team: Mexico

Nickname: El Tri is a major brand in North America...but until they fight Ecuador's "La Tri" we will never know which article is the appropriate one.

Star: The first Mexican bred player to star on the most star studded line-up on the planet (Manchester United) Javier Hernandez is a god in Mexico...or rather...he was until the team's abysmal showing in qualifying left his reputation with a black eye and Mexican football in disarray. Add to that a paltry 4 goals in 24 appearances this year and the golden boy of Mexican football is still a star, albeit a diminished one.

Chunky What?

Hip-Star: For all the media's fawning over "Chicharito" he can't do much if he never gets the ball...and that's a task that falls to one of the youngest midfields in the entire cup. Six players with a combined 53 caps will take charge there, and most important of all is Marco Fabián who will need to keep his cool like a Michocana Vanilla and Quince Bar. You have had one of those right? Oh, well...I'm sure regular Ben and Jerry's is good too...I wouldn't know, I think they're too corporate.


X-Factor: In writing these posts I've been surprised at the consistency with which teams have held onto their coaches. Four years ago several teams jettisoned the men who got them to the Cup with mere months to go...not so this year...except for Mexico. Their four coaches in the past year--okay...four coaches in the month of October--have made an extremely unstable squad. Whether they've finally figured it out or falter...again, we'll see soon.

Herrera just heard a twig snap

Coach: The current man of the moment (and I do emphasize moment) is Miguel Herrera. While he has had a long career in Liga MX, so did his predecessors. While pummeling New Zealand punched their ticket, New Zealand won't be around to beat up this June...so who knows what comes next.

History: Mexico has made the World Cup Round of 16 every 4 years like clockwork since 1994. For 20 years it's been tradition...In fact in 14 World Cups they have never finished worse than 16th. While I'm an American and an ardent chanter of dos-a-cero, this does not feel like a clockwork Mexican team.

Food: Okay people, for the last time: Taco Bell does NOT count. Instead, we're going to partake in Xocotal--an Aztec chocolate drink (with green pepper and vanilla to complicate the flavor)

I know it's not flattering...but
neither is her record

Fool: I'm a teacher, and I'm proud to have just received tenure. That said...I don't think I should have tenure for life, or be able to hand pick a friend/family member as successor to my position--regardless of any training they have or ability, nor do I think that my union leaders should be able to embezzle my contributions to buy Jet Skis. So sorry, Elba Esther Gordillo I do not want to work with you.

Best Case: Miguel Herrera has a magic touch and helps to turn around a disastrous qualifying campaign with a sterling World Cup case. Chicharito and Giovanni dos Santos turn in a bushel of goals each, they earn a strong draw with Brazil and almost pull off a stunner against Spain before getting their traditional Round of 16.

Worst Case: Chicarito is rusty, dos Santos gets hurt, the previous gold medalists (including the previously mentioned squadron of midfielders) is so shell shocked they never recover their careers and a lousy cup gets even worse as Mexico spirals into the cellar of CONCACAF behind Panama, El Salvador and even the Carribbean islands.

My prediction: Fears (or rather hopes) of Mexico's destruction are likely a little overblown. But while they've gotten themselves back in shape of late, they haven't had to do it with the pressure of an international tournament on the global stage. Even a strong showing against Cameroon may be undercut by Brazilian dominance in the second match, sending the fragile El Tri to 4th place--1 point

Added Bonus: Continuing our walk down old school lane, here's "Orale" from Johnny Z one of the primogenitures of Chicano hip-hop

Meet the Team: Honduras

Nickname: Rather than just going with La H (for the first letter of their name) I'll go with La Garra Catracha or "the Honduran Claw"


Star: There is no one transcendent player for Honduras coming into the cup. Perhaps the most notable is Roger Espinoza whose family moved to the US and started his career in the MLS before rising to the heights of an FA Cup upset when his Wigan side ousted Man City a year ago. It's his creative pace that will give Honduras any chance going forward this year.

Hip-Star: Naturally, only posers focus on the main European leagues. The real competition lies elsewhere, like Poland and China where Osman Chávez plies his trade, defending all comers for Wilsa Kraków and Quingdao Jonoon. Since the squad struggled to keep out goals during qualifying, his play and lessons learned in the rougher, less glamorous leagues will be crucial to unsettling opponents.

A man you never want
to bump into in a dark alley

X-Factor: Did you know that Honduras has the highest murder rate in the world? Whatever else is said about pressure from the press (England and Brazil), few places on earth boast as serious a set of consequences for poor performance, as Honduras.


Coach: Luis Fernando Suarez was the mastermind behind the second round run of Ecuador back at the 2006 World Cup, and despite a poor turn of form with the national side thereafter, has again found success in Latin America. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that he's built like a brick house.

History: In two cups Honduras has only ever been able to salvage draws. In 1982 against Spain and Northern Ireland (at a time when only 4 current national team players were alive) and in 2010 against Switzerland when they didn't score a single goal. Lucky them, the Swiss are on the docket this time around too.

Food: A vegetarian fast food option, perfect for a fast half-time pick me up: the baleada offers a quick flour tortilla with beans, cheese, sour cream and avocado, plantains or scrambled eggs. I would never have thought to make this...so I guess I better.


Fool: Not to pick on people trying to make their local communities better, but it's hard not to give this to the mayor of Murderville, Planet Earth: San Pedro Sula mayor Juan Carlos Zúniga, here's hoping he proves me wrong.

Best Case: Besting an overconfident France (the easiest kind to best) sparks a rush from Honuras that leads them to a stunning second place in the group. Better still, they hold Argentina goalless for the first half of the second round match, then bow out with honor and pride.

Worst Case: Criminals, barons, thieves, dastards, Honduras again fails to score a goal because they never make it to Brazil. (Worse yet, El Salvador sneaks in, pretends to be Honduras and no one notices).

My prediction: The good news for Honduras is that this time they'll score a goal. The bad news is that it still won't mean anything. 4th Place in Group E--0 points

Added Bonus: While I'm trying to learn Spanish, it's not yet good enough to tell if this song from the Hip Hop Honduras project is "Gangsta" in the local sense of the word or not, still I like the beat, so here's Mission Urbana "Frente a Frente" (Face to Face)

Meet the Team: Costa Rica

Nickname: Los Ticos take their nickname from the nickname for the entire country, a little like America's being the Yanks, or the French being the Frogs.

Ruiz (L) and Campbell (R)

Star: Captain and star striker Bryan Ruiz has definitely flown the highest, topping squads in Holland and making a strong showing for a season or so with Fulham. Now that he's joined by Olympiakos wunderkind Joel Campbell he's a little more free to use his experience to tear up rival defenses.

Hip-Star: The most capped mid-fielder in the Costa Rican line-up is also one of it's youngest. At 25 Celso Borges  already has 61 appearances in the Red, White and Blue. His experience, value to the run of play and the fact that he plays for AIK (oh, you haven't heard of AIK, it's only like...the Swedish Club) and has some valuable European league experience makes him an obvious choice.

X-Factor: Life on the road is not terribly kind to Costa Rica. While they love the home cooking of life at home, they haven't taken a point from a World Cup qualified opponent since a draw against Mexico in Estadio Azteca back in June of 2013. And a trio of losses against Chile, South Korea and everybody pundit's whipping boy--Australia--don't bode well either. They'll need to win on hostile territory to have a chance.

Ahora, como se cuesta
el refrigerador actualmente?

Coach: As Colombia turned from locals to foreigners, their last Cup Qualifying coach turned a little farther north for his next chance. Jorge Pinto did the needful this time around, getting the Ticos back to the Mondiale. The fact that he looks like he should follow every match by announcing the winner of a brand new Dodge Durango on Costa Rica's version of The Price Is Right is an added bonus.

History: Even though they only have three appearances to their name, Costa Rica have quietly established themselves as the third point in the North American Triangle (alongside historic leaders Mexico, and the obviously empowered Americans). Three Cups in four tries (and a heartbreaking playoff loss to Uruguay) suggest that they're becoming a fixture--now if they can just get out of the first round.

Hearty enough for even Group D

Food: Though this World Cup will be aired at manageable times, there's still a part of me that will miss soccer with breakfast. Fortunately, Gallo Pinto (a breakfast-y mix of rice, beans, onions and red peppers) seems like a perfectly satisfying side-dish anytime of day.

Fool: I'm writing this on the eve of Luis Guillermo Solís' inauguration as Costa Rica's first president from a third party in history. He's too new to be mockable, but the insatiable Presidency of Óscar Arias --he of the Noble Peace Prize in 1987 and the Grover-Cleveland-Esque Nonconsecutive Terms-- is...seriously, Óscar, get your muttonchops in order.

Best Case: After stunning an overconfident Uruguay, the momentum carries them to a draw against Italy and a victory over equally unlucky England giving them a shot in the second round.

Worst Case: The odd man out of the powerhouse Group D, Costa Rica is picked on worse than a little brother asking out his first date, Ruiz and Cambell never get going and the squad heads home for three more years of waiting.

My prediction: Los Ticos are perhaps the most underrated side in the CONCACAF, and perhaps the unluckiest side in the World Cup, getting slotted with three teams who each have a claim to be title contenders. They'll make it difficult for someone, but not easy for themselves. 4th in Group--1 point

Added Bonus: Producer Bloke and Star Tiko305 team up for easily the most cinematic video yet in our Hip-Hop World Cup

In it, But Win It? #6: The Three Friendly Long Shots

I was going to call this post "The Three Amigos..." then I remembered the various quasi-racist offerings of that same name and thought, "meh...this is better".

Anyway, we're nearing the end of qualification, but for those happy few Central/South American teams who sealed the deal early the nerve-wracking part is over...for now. While Mexico and Uruguay fret and fuss over match-ups and terrible twists of fate that have landed them in the play-in rounds, these three squads are set to go...though whether it means anything or not is another matter entirely.

So here's a quick spin and ridiculously presumptuous analysis of three more qualifiers for next year's world cup.



Chile
Contender Credentials: The South American Roja will be making their second straight trip to the Mondiale in 2014 with a squad full of familiar faces that play among the top leagues in the world. In particular the front of Alexis Sanchez, Humberto Sourez and Jean Beausajour is back for blood.

Pretender Problems: Chile's biggest flaw is that, while many of their players are entering their prime, they don't have the unit cohesion that many of their rivals will. Spread throughout Europe and South America, they don't get to play together, save for international affairs. Last fall they dropped four straight and only qualified thanks to 5 wins in 6 matches to round out the campaign.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Their recent form is a sign of piecing everything together and--as the darkest of dark horses--they race to a surprising semi-final.
Pits of Despair Scenario: A rough European season depletes their experienced fronts and they're left as the butt of jokes in South America for the next four years.
Prediction: Chile are the Oakland A's of South American soccer, too often overlooked, but never a champion. Round of 16

Ecuador
Contender Credentials: Better known as "El-Tri-That-Actually-Already-Qualified", Ecuador have long been feared in South America, but little respected elsewhere in the World. Despite a disappointing campaign in 2010, they were back in fine form--looking comfortable throughout their campaign and have one of the most consistent leaders in South American Futbol: 2006 rising star/current-day captain Antonio Valencia of Man United
Pretender Problems: Mexico's non-union, South-American equivalent has problems similar to their northernly brethren. Their manager Reinaldo Ruena gets middling results, they seem utterly incapable of winning away from home and they had the straight up rotten luck to lose the fearsome striker Christian Benitez to a heart attack.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: My Ecuadorian student is right about an international conspiracy to stop Ecuador from showing up higher profile Argentina/Brazil/Uruguay, and a plucky squad of upstarts uncover the secret assassination plans while leading an inspirational underdog charge to the championship.
Pits of Despair Scenario: They can't get off the ground away from Quito. Literally. The pressure of playing so close to the ocean makes their ears pop and they lie in the fetal position for three weeks straight.
Prediction: There's a lot of enthusiasm/team-of-destiny fervor around Ecuador, but not enough talent to see them through. Third in their group


Honduras
Contender Credentials: La Bicolor is slowly rising in the ranks of continental powers. This is their second straight cup appearance, matching Costa Rica for the longest streak by any CONCACAF Team not named "Mexico" or "the United States of America". They're even rising up in global estimation with Wigan Athletic building a pipeline of sorts through Midfielder Roger Espinoza and Defender Juan Carlos Garcia
Pretender Problems: Okay...honestly? that record reflects a lot more of CONCACAF's weakness rather than Honduras' strength. Even qualification was something of a fortuitous break with Mexico playing so poorly that they backed in via a couple of draws against Panama and Jamaica. (Plus Garcia & Espinoza have a combined 12 Premier league caps)
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: They cement their rising star status with a shocking 2nd place finish and tightly contested Round of 16 match.
Pits of Despair Scenario: They forget to pack their shin guards and have to cover themselves in Spongebob Bandaids once the bigger kids start picking on them.
Prediction: Sorry Honduras, nothing doing...4th Place in their group

Waning Seconds: October I--'Mericas!

We're nearing the end of the road to qualification, ten are in, fifty still have a shot, but only twenty-two spots remain. We'll keep narrowing the field of contestants this weekend starting with matches on Friday and continuing on to Tuesday when all that will be left are guaranteed participants and terribly nervous, play-off bound teams.

Europe is a mess [hey, look sport imitating life!], so we'll look at the ramifications of the final qualifiers closer to next Tuesday, but things are much clearer with North and South America. But since this is a blog from a Montanan perspective we all know there's really only one America that matters...OUR AMERICA!

So here are the qualification routes for the teams still alive, with as much rootin'-tootin' American-ized analyses as I can muster.

CONCACAF

We already have a spot in the World Cup, so the remaining two spots (one in the cup one in the playoff versus New Zealand) doesn't really matter enough to talk about.

...

Oh, okay I'll talk about it.

Jamaica has the longest shot at qualification, probably because they're too busy sipping delicious coconut drinks in hammocks rather than pulling themselves up by their bootstraps. Technically they could qualify if they beat both the US and Honduras while Mexico and Panama draw their first match and then lose their second matches. That's about as unlikely as a Sandals' beach vacation not being a colossal money suck.

Y tu Mickey? Wait...that was foriegn...
STOP IT YOU DUMB RAT!!

Mexico is finally getting their comeuppance for that border crossin', job theievin', consistently-contributing-to-our-growing-Gross-Domestic-Product-while-we-eschew-all-manual-labor-positions-and-humbly-accept-our-semi-racist-commentary-on-their-worth-as-human-beingin'. Okay, satire aside, a cup without Mexico isn't a good cup (and it might just hit our economy, not to mention Mexico's, pretty hard). So El Tri need to beat Panama in Azteca (a likely proposition) and then top Costa Rica (who should be resting their best players). A draw or loss in either makes things tough...in both it ends their hopes.

Panama perhaps the most successful team in Central America of late, Panama is also the home to a KICKASS CANAL!! ATTABOY TR!! WOOO!!! Oh yeah...Panama has the hardest road ahead of themselves. Needing a result in Mexico City and some points against the US. Difficult, but possibly duable.

Honduras is in the lead....for third place...SUCKERS!!...USA, USA! Four points will be enough to see them on to Brazil and since they get to face bottom feeding Jamaica and Costa Rica (who will probably be resting their best players), they should be heading for at least the intercontinental playoff.

CONMEBOL

There are four spots left (three for the cup and one for the playoff), two of them have already been claimed, but three others will fight for the remaining two.

Venezuela is experiencing what all misguided nations who give in to the siren song of socialism experience: a bloated bureaucracy, mildly-successful sports programs, and wide reaching social programs that don't shut down over petty partisan politics...SUCKERS! With only one match left, and a big goal deficit they need to crush Paraguay at home and hope that Uruguay or Ecuador (more likely Uruguay) flame out twice in a row.

To be fair...Luis Suarez might be able to handle this.

Ecuador and Uruguay are fighting to avoid the play-in game against Jordan and get into the World Cup directly. They face each other on Friday, in Quito, which means hard cheese Diego Forlan. While an Uruguay win would pressure Ecuador to get a win in Chile, an Ecuador win will pretty well guarantee Uruguay needs a miracle against Argentina...both teams will be playing to win. So you can pretty well count on it being a hard fight...not as hard a fight as Glacier Versus Sentinel in Kalispell this Friday Night. But, you know...a hard-ish fight.

Finally there's Columbia and Chile responsible for two of every American's favorite foods: Coffee and Chili. What's that? That was a gross misunderstanding of both geography and spelling? I'm sorry...I can't hear you over the sound of AMERICA BEING AWESOME!! [Guitar solo!!]. Anyway, Columbia has been phenomenal in qualifying and appears to be on the verge of not only going to Brazil but getting one of the 8 top spots in the seeding. Meanwhile, Chile has shown consistent improvement since their round of 16 showing in 2010 and can seal qualification with a win in either match.

Since their closest competitors (Ecuador and Uruguay) face each other in a frantic scrabble for points, the leaders of the pack may be tempted to lay back for a comfortable draw in Barranquilla on Friday, knowing that Columbia only has Paraguay left and Chile can seal the deal at home versus Ecuador.

But of course, whoever wins, whoever loses, whoever draws [shudder runs through American sports fans] we can all agree on one thing.

AMERICA RULES!!

(This concludes the satirical jingoism in this blog for--hopefully--ever.)

Lessons from the Confederations Cup: 3 On/3 Off

Later today my wife and I will fly off for England and Scotland. My dreams of seeing a premier league match are not to be met (it's July after all) but I've got fingers crossed that we'll find some footy entertainment somewhere. Until we return, here's this post.

Inside of a year to go until the World Cup in Brazil, there are very few chances left to get any real sense of who can or will do well next June. And while it might still be way too early to make any kind of assumptions or conclusions about good, bad and i-between, it's also way to quiet this summer to ignore it.


So here's another in the oft-forgotten 3 On/3 Off series where we identify 3 positives and 3 less-than positives from a major tournament.

3 On

Neymar (2nd from R) That's my next haircut!
(cdn3.news.co.nz)

1. Neymar is every bit as good as advertised. The run up to this tournament was all about the youngster from Mogi das Cruces. Would he be the million dollar man Barcelona thought he was? Would he be another case of dynamic youngster out of his depth in international competition? Would he have an ugly hair cut? The answers, as we all know now, are yes, no and yes. His fluidity and inventive style of play clearly justify the faith of the millions in green and gold throughout Brazil, and even make me pause before I comment on the soggy tea cozy atop his head. With a more than competent ally up front in Fred and an increasingly confident set of backs shoring up the defense, Brazil is officially back.
2. Only fools doubt Spain. We're all a little desperate for some drama in international soccer, so the stories have begun: Spain is getting older. Spain is getting tired. Spain is too unsure of the next generation. Pbbt on all of that. Spain is every bit the well-oiled, soul-crushing machine they have ever been, and while there have been brief spurts of teams like Nigeria and Italy looking ominous in their own end, once La Furia Roja gets control in midfield it's all over but the crying. And even despite the final drubbing at the hands of the Selacao, they still have to be deemed favorites
3. Dilma Roussef and the Brazilian Government is very smart.  Here's a little lesson for all future cup hosts: if you spend billions of dollars on a bunch of fancy pants stadia built to sell Pepsi and Hyundai to the world and then ask average citizens to pay more for things like busses or schools, be prepared for citizens to get pissed. Better still, let them be pissed. Let the march. Let them demonstrate. Let them exercise their rights as citizens. And make absolutely sure that Pepsi and Hyundai execs ride the bus at least once or twice. That's the way to be a modern nation where disagreement does not equal destabilization (hint hint Egypt/Turkey)

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"Why do my teeth hurt? Could it be all that biting of opponents?"
(adammjohnston.wordpress.com via SBNation)

1. Luis Suarez is a jerk...maybe without a future. It really doesn't fail does it. Luis Suarez shows up on the pitch and the dander of anyone who roots for Ghana, or for Patrice Evra, or for just--you know--not biting people, gets their dander up. Luis Suarez has tremendous talent, but won't ever be a global favorite when his behavior makes him seem like a crazy man's Diego Maradona (yeah...that's pretty crazy). But with Uruguay in 5th place in Conmebol qualifying, with Diego Forlan aging rapidly, with Edinson Cavani alternating hot and cold, and with la Celeste's defense folding against top flight scorers like a Tide commercial soccer mom, there's no guarantee that he'll get to bring his madness back next summer...please, oh please...let's go everybody else in South America.
2. Expect more disappointment in Asia, Africa, North America and Oceania. As major supporters of the minnows of international soccer, our biggest disappointment in watching the Confederations Cup was the utter destruction of anything not from Europe or South America. Worse still, with the exception of Tahiti, these are teams that ought to represent the best of their continents. Yet Japan came way with nothing, Mexico slightly more than nothing (but even more scorn and derision from pundits), and Nigeria came away with the standard issue victory over Tahiti and a solid half against Spain. These are not the most promising signs of greater parity in the global game. Drat.
3. Hold off on that Hulk reboot. It's okay Disney, you can shed a tear over soccer. Admit it, it was too good to be true: your most successful tv station (ESPN) is all geared up to lovingly ogle Brazilian futbol, and perhaps the most ogle-able Brazilian player is named "Hulk"after a character in your most successful film franchise (Marvel comics). You could practically hear the keyboards rattling off spec scripts in Malibu coffee shops where Mark Ruffalo meanders down by Ipanema bumping into the staggering striker in a winking little aside. Then the Zenit St. Petersburg man went and underwhelmed us all (not unlike the Hulk movies themselves), next year's a long way away, but Disney's cross-platform synergy is on the verge of sputtering out.