LIVE CHAT: The 2014 World Cup Draw

 

A Soccer Hater's Guide to the World Cup Draw

Okay, so we're big on the goofy glee that comes along with the World Cup Draw. My toes curl up and down with every potential permutation. But I'm fully and wildly aware that watching 95 minutes of highly choreographed FIFA frooferah, may not be the average American sports fan's favorite thing. So allow us to get you fired up with these simple factoids.

1. Check out the pretty lady.
FIFA understands that they are a collection of old, white men in suits, and, therefore, not terribly interesting to look at for an hour-and-a-half. Enter the pretty lady presenter. The equivalent of a lotto-girl for 90 minutes, only rather than some wanna-be actress down on her luck, FIFA brings in a gorgeous celebrity. This year it's Fernanda Lima, Brazil's leading actress.

Yes, she will be there with her husband Rodrigo Hibert, but worrying about whose wife your ogling is not a custom most sports fans are familiar with...so don't worry about it.

2. Hey, this music isn't bad!
In between staring at Fernanda Lima, and feeling kinda bad, but not really bad about it, you can listen to music from the leading star of Brazilian hip hop (Emicida) and the Brazilian Aretha Franklin (Margareth Mendez). Okay, and back to ogling Fernanda Lima...

Okay and on to the sports part of things

If you like the actual sports part of sports, you might want to know why all this matters. Well, lets answer that with an analogy.

Imagine the World Cup as an international version of March Madness. (It causes entire nations shut down, productivity to go down the toilet, normally sane people make totally inaccurate predictions, etc.)

That makes the World Cup Draw an international version of Selection Sunday. (You figure out who you're playing, and start to have a more specific sense of whether or not you can actually win).

If you like Selection Sunday, you should like the draw part of the World Cup Draw. Sure, part of the thrill of Selection Sunday is how quickly the tournament starts after it, and sure there's seven months between our draw and the actual kick-off. However, FIFA needs that time to make sure that fans can buy tickets, book travel accommodations, inspire Brazilian airlines to gouge prices, it is a slightly larger undertaking than sending a couple hundred college kids to Dayton for the weekend.

But the other fun part of Selection Sunday is the frenetic pace of analysis. So, if you like frenetic analyses, then here are a few guidelines to sound intelligent.

3. Fear the seeds: the mighty, mighty seeds.
The draw starts with Pot 1, this is host to the "Seeded teams", which, to American sports fans, might sound like "Number 1 Seeds" from the NCAA Basketball tournament.

That's because, it's EXACTLY LIKE the "Number 1 Seeds" from the NCAA Basketball Tournament. FIFA (the selection committee of these things) uses their own convaluted, quasi-RPI style ranking system to determine number 1 seeds. (Their formula is pretty brilliantly debunked by the BBC, the world's leader in nerdy Soccer analyses.)

But setting aside whether this is right or wrong, what really matters is who you get grouped with, especially because the last non-seeded team to win was Argentina in 1986, before the majority of young stars were even born. These teams are generally the top contenders for the title, so they can really damage your dreams if you get a tough one. There are 8 "1 Seeds" including defending champions Spain (i.e. Louisville), perennial blue bloods Germany, Brazil and Argentina (i.e. Duke/Kansas/Kentucky) and a couple of frequent contenders Colombia and Belgium (i.e. Syracuse/ Indiana).

That leaves two teams who certainly have their strengths, but are not guaranteed world beaters (the soccer equivalent of Pittsburgh or Gonzaga): Uruguay and Switzerland. Neither one is a walk-over, but they offer a much brighter glimmer of hope than the others. Plus, since in each of the last three cups two top seeds have failed to win their group, above average teams should keep their fingers crossed for the weaker number ones.

4. Beware the Mid-Majors/Cinderellas
The draw will continue with teams divided up by their continental affiliation first the Asian and North American teams, then the South Americans and Africans (plus a mystery European team...don't ask why), and finally Europe (which has the majority of teams in the tournament).

To continue the March Madness analogy, these teams are the squads who can spoil the party. Each continental conference has some teams that will need to get crazy lucky (Florida Gulf Coast style), and each has some legitimate sleepers (Butler style).

As each team is drawn they'll be put in groups alphabetically (A-H), provided they don't create a continental conflict. As a result, France and the African teams have to be set against Brazil, Argentina and Colombia (because Chile and Ecuador can't be).

If you don't know anything about soccer, and want to impress people who do (perhaps an attractive exchange student or a globe-trotting boss), then don't worry about the chalk picks from Pot 1: remember the cupcakes and the competitors that make the difference in each group.

Pot 2: Cupcakes--Australia, Honduras, Iran  Competitors--USA, Japan
Pot 3: Cupcakes--Cameroon, Algeria Competitors--Ivory Coast, Ghana, Chile
Pot 4: Cupcakes--Bosnia/Herzegovina Competitors: Netherlands, Italy, England, Portugal


5. Where You Play Matters Too.
While the groups are assigned alphabetically, the position in the group is a little more random. Seeds get to be #1, other teams are given a another random spot from two to four. Those spots determine exactly when and where each squad will play. So it's not just who you play, but which spot you land.

The road to the finals will wind all throughout Brazil, the fourth largest nation in the world (7 times larger than South Africa, 23 times larger than Germany) and the position you draw determines just how much you have to travel. Since teams like to set up a single camp as their home base and spend as little time on the road as possible, you can expect a few highly pampered international stars to have their preferences.

For instance, the lucky seed that gets F1 and can camp out near the relatively tropical climes running from Belo Horizonte, to Porto Alegre and then to Rio de Jenairo. However, hardest hit will be the poor shmuck who gets stuck with A2. They'll kick off the tournament against Brazil (with precisely 0 people cheering for them) and Antarctic winds cooling the stadium during the southern hemisphere's winter months, then fly four hours north to Manaus in the middle of the northern rainforest's rainy season, then have to go 4 hours east to Recife and the heat of an Equatorial summer. That's a lot less pleasant.


6. It's Smart to Look Ahead.
As the groups fill up, letter by letter, you can start looking not just at whose in your first group of four, but who your team might face if they qualify for the playoff rounds (the Sweet Sixteen).

Your first opponent will come from the group right next door (A v.s. B; C vs. D; etc.). And if you pass that, your quarter final rival will come from the next pair (ABCD in one batch, EFGH in another). Once you hit the semi-finals and finals you could be facing anybody, but by that point it's all a crapshoot anyway, so don't worry about that.

So, if you're rooting for the US (and if you're a typical soccer-hating American, I can't imagine you rooting for someone else), your best case scenario would be a group with Cameroon, Switzerland and Bosnia, but that doesn't mean doodly-squat if Spain's right next door and Brazil's likely to be waiting you in the quarter finals.

By the same token, it might be frightening to land in a group with dark horse Belgium, Chile, and Portugal. But if you can find a way through (hint--fluid passing v.s. Chile, scrupulously careful marking against Ronaldo) and find patsies like Uruguay, Switzerland and Mexico, you may be bound for the Final Four.

Hopefully now you have a little more reason to watch, a little more reason to care, and a lot of new ways to sound smart about the World Cup. And also...you know about Fernanda Lima

In it, But Win It? #9: Better Late than Nevers

There's a sad truth about the play-off games for qualification to the world cup: often times they are easier to win than the regular qualification stages themselves.

Think about it. You're several points down, thrashing and battling with a continental rival who knows exactly how you're going to play and what you're going to do, because you've played each other dozens upon dozens of times, and your players face-off in club leagues on a regular basis. Sure, you could grit your teeth and charge head long into the face of certain death.

On the other hand, you could shrug your shoulders, let your rivals win and not worry about it, because in one month you'll get to kick the snot out of a group of part-time semi-pros from around the world who will be happy just to shake your hand.

So it is with the last two teams who qualified for the FIFA World Cup. Mexico and Uruguay. Both are talented, both should have been in long before, both got to beat up on a pair of lesser luminaries en route to their eventual destiny.

(What is that destiny you asked? Allow me to make a wildly inaccurate guess!)

Mexico
Contender Credentials: Mexico is and will always be the class of the non-power associations. They have been the most consistently excellent team not from either Europe or South America. They make the second round every time out, like clock-work and have, in Giovanni dos Santos and Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez a prodigiously talented top two striking combination.
Pretender Problems: Mexico has been playing abysmally for the last three-four years. The once nightmarish setting of Azteca means nothing to their fellow CONCACAF foes and they look utterly baffled by any pressure or difficulty thrown their way. Mexican fans are already despondent about El Tri's chances (as one of my students said: "we don't deserve to go there...we just don't.") On that, we agree lad.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Enrique Pena Nieto swings a free trade deal with Brazil just in time to offer Mexico City "drinking" water to every other country's training camp. Montezuma's revenge leaves Meixco victors by default.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: The team struggles to find their way out of their hotel rooms. The FA fires three coaches after each dispiriting group loss, and Mexico crumbles into their worst showing ever.
Prediction: Chichirito chokes on the biggest stage of his career, no body else has any idea of how to help. The ugliness continues 4th place.

Uruguay
Contender Credentials: The most dangerous team in South America: La Celeste combines all the creative prowess of three of the world's most feared strikers: Diego Forlan, Luis Suarez and (new gun) Edison Cavani. While the highly touted Brazil and Argentina went into South Africa as favorites, Uruguay was the only one still standing by the semi-finals, and pulled the same trick again in the Copa America.
Pretender Problems: Good as they were four years ago...it was four years ago. Forlan is on his last legs, Suarez has become the Diego Maradonna of his nation (both in talent and in bizarrely erratic behavior). The midfield is older and still underwhelming, so it will fall to the strikers to create their own chances...good luck with that.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Forlan finds the fountain of youth. Suarez finds the fountain of Adderall and a stout defense of Pereria and Caceras hold off all foes en route to a repeat of their last title...in Brazil...sixty years ago.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: The magic is all dried up and they play much more like the squad that struggled versus Venezuela than the world beaters of 2010. Only now there's no Jordan to beat up on.
Prediction: Forlan has one shining moment, Suarez does something sketchy, Cavani looks brilliant but exhausted and only a group of death (plus suspect goalkeeping) marks them out as a stunning underachiever. 3rd place

In case you haven't been keeping score at home: here's how I've predicted the tournament before I know who will be on the rosters and whom will be playing whom.

4th places: Iran, Costa Rica, Bosnia/Herzegovina, Honduras, Algeria, Cameroon, Greece, Mexico

3rd places: Australia, Holland, Switzerland, Russia, Ecuador, Nigeria, Croatia, Uruguay

16s: South Korea, Columbia, Belgium, England, Chile, Ivory Coast, France, Portugal

Quarters: Japan, Italy, USA, Spain

Semis: Brazil, Ghana

Runners Up: Germany

Champions: Argentina

That would require pretty much, this exact draw:

Starting XI: Federation Badges, We'll Miss Next Summer

In our Happy Trails series we've profiled the teams who won't be at next summer's world cup, and in the process highlighted a few awesome federation logos of teams that didn't make the grade. In that spirit here's a special recognition for the well designed, if not the terribly talented.

I. Pakistan--I'm not sure if it's the flaming soccerball or...wait...no...it's definitely the flaming soccer ball. Pakistan's badge looks like something that would be batted around an MLS expansion team office in the late 90s. Only better because they all hold on to it.

II. Anguila--When Anguila was ousted I said that I shared the mourning of Three Dolphins supporters, not least because they seemed to have captured Flipper in mid-flip. I have expect the subtitle of this badge to be "So Long, and Thanks for All the Futbol"

III. Palestine--The Palestinian national side isn't so much a nation and isn't so much a side as it is a collection of people with Palestinian heritage who take time out of their doctoring, lawyering and all around livelihoods to play against the big boys of Asian futbol. Hopefully, some day, this logo is an aspirational target for young athletes in the disputed territory--the swooping arcs seem enticing enough to me.

IV. Azerbaijan--Similar to the Pakistani logo, I appreciate a little bit of the "ball on fire" motif. But it's nice that the Azerbaijani powers that be chose to have the ball falling rather than soaring, and allowed the flames to match the national flag.

V. Solomon Islands--The first of two circa 70's era emblems, The Solomon islands manage to work in the colors of the flag in a new and intriguing way while still having an ample amount of style (between the stripes, the stars, and the stylistic "S") it looks a little like a Cable News logo (assuming that all cable news was run out of the Solomon Islands)

VI. Czech Republic--National FA emblems are about the last vestige of the "animal rampant" style that dominates so may family crests. What's great about the lion for the Czech logo is both the double tail and heavy mane as well as the color palette mixing and matching red white and blue (even if it does skew a little too close to Pepsi for copy right lawyers.

VII. Dominican Republic--Speaking of the Red, White and Blue, here's another play on those colors from the Caribbean. Baseball is king in the Dominican, but soccer continues to make inroads. The structure of the FA's logo is unlike almost anything else out there. The cup looks aspirational (even if the "D" seems to have been an after thought), and the island outline in the middle of the ball is a nice way to make clear who is playing here.

VIII. Romania--One of the more recent eliminations, I'm a big fan of the Romanian spinning wheel of death motif. The whirling colors make for a nice piece of perspective, as if there's an entire universe spinning around the ball (something the New York Cosmos also use to great effect). The simple primary colors of the national flag, and the language surrounding the claim are perfect for a classic, timeless look.

IX. Benin--The second 70s era logo, Benin's choice uses the ball more pointedly than the others did, turning it into a "b" for "Federation Beninoise". I said when they were eliminated that it looked like a soccer version of the Montreal Expos, or Milwaukee Breweres logo, something that both covered the letters of the location and team and also evoked the sport (with gloves and balls implied in both)

X. Guatemala--The most decidedly postmodern of all the federation logos, Guatemala has a sweeping set of arcs that seem to be at once a parrot, a ball, a keeper mid-savea gigantic eyeball, or god knows what. Whatever it is, it definitely stands out and signifies that Guatemala is a serious country...for artistes nouveau.

XI. Senegal--Finally there's this from Senegal. Like Guatemala they eschewed the standard issue "letters and a ball" set up, for an implied ball that uses both national flag, the team mascot (a lion) and
a subtle connection to the African continent. It look slightly like an elementary art project, but that just reflects how soccer unites everyone and infuses a childlike joy.

So there you have it, the style champs we'll be rooting for on the Road to Russia

In it, But Win It? #8: Born To Runner-Up

For some reason, thinking of the UEFA Playoff games always makes me think of the scene from the Simpsons' where perpetual over-achiever Lisa ponders a life of (relative) mediocrity.

Announcer: And now, Avis Rent-A-Car is proud to present the second best band in America. Will you welcome Garfunkel, Messina, Oates, and Lisa singing their number two hit, "Born to Runner-up". [Audience boos] 

Lisa: Why would they come to our concert just to boo us? 

Such is the situation for Europe's other qualifiers. You know, the ones who didn't win their own group but instead beat somebody else who, also, did not win their own group. After all, if you're African you once you win you have to keep on winning...but if you're European...meh.

Here now are some wholly inaccurate predictions about what will befall the next batch of Europeans to take their talents to the unamused masses.


Croatia
Contender Credentials: As one of the top 16 teams in the world, and a perpetually well prepared cup side, Croatia promises to be a tough opponent for whomever they're drawn with. They also boast a tremendous tandem in Midfielder Luka Modric (Real Madrid) and Forward Mario Mandzukic (Bayern Munich), that should scare anybody.
Pretender Problems: After a sterling run to the semi-finals in their debut in 1998, Croatian football has been rather similar to other ex-Yugoslav states (Serbia/Slovakia/Slovenia), and is still searching for a breakthrough to equal Davor Suker's run of glory 16 years ago.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Now that he's head of the Croatian Association, Suker can use all the team's resources to finance a time machine to bring a good chunk of the '98 team in to play alongside Modric and Mandzukic en route to another 3rd place finish.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Drawn with faster, more agile players, everyone other than Modric and Mandzukic chokes up and turns into a red-chequered pumpkin.
Prediction: There's enough talent to get one win here, and if paired with a less compelling partner (Iran/Algeria) that alone should get them 3rd place.

France

Contender Credentials: Packed with some of the best talents in the world, and now with a world class side in Paris-Saint Germain. France has plenty of people playing world-class football everywhere you turn, particularly in Balon D'or Front-runner Franck Ribery. Add in the gritty ex-champion manager Didier Deschamps and its hard to see why France isn't a frontrunner.
Pretender Problems: Then you remember that they're France, and its hard to see how they even got this far. They needed a miracle win with their backs against the walls to beat Ukraine, and they got it. They are ranked by FIFA as the worst qualifier from Europe and they play that way until the last possible moment, so maybe it's a little much to expect another final appearance without Zinedine Zidane.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Deschamps gets the whole team to bond through trust falls and campfire circles until they are a well oiled machine that dominates in Brazil and unites a fractured nation.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: In fighting, racial tension and boneheaded play leaves them looking like a dog's breakfast on the world stage, yet again.
Prediction: As much as I mock the French, and boy...do I mock the French...I really do believe that they have a strong balance of talent, experience, youth and strategy. They just need time to gel away from the all important club season. Having done that they'll slip into the second round before falling to an upstart like Japan, the US or Ghana Round of 16

Greece

Contender Credentials: Perpetually one of the toughest outs in Europe, Las Hellas knows how to frustrate and aggravate their rivals to the dying seconds of the match. They refuse to let in easy goals and in a tournament plagued by new and quirky balls that puts them instantly in competition for a top two spot in the group.
Pretender Problems: While they don't let in goals, they also don't score many, having gotten 2 in all their 6 previous World Cup matches. Forwards are as rare a commodity in Greece as retirees who don't mind cutbacks in public services, and while defense wins championships, you need someone (anyone) to put it in the back of the net too.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Three straight nil-nil draws see them through a tough group dominated by one of the heavyweights.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Another tournament, another bout of defensively brilliant, offensively dim futbol and another fourth place finish in the group.
Prediction: Mostly underwhelming, with a few flashes of brilliance from captain Giorgious Karagounis' new mentee Kostas Fortunis which suggests better fortunes ahead. 4th Place

Portugal

Contender Credentials: Cristiano Ronaldo. Cristiano Ronaldo. Cristiano Ronaldo. Cristiano Ronaldo. Cristiano Ronaldo. Cristiano Ronaldo. The media's obsession with Cristiano Ronaldo. Cristiano Ronaldo.
Pretender Problems: The back line's best hope is the rapidly ossifying Bruno Alves, and the scrum of hum-drum goalkeepers is once again proof that no matter how good the chosen one is up top, he can't do everything himself. (At least, not until he finds a way to clone himself)
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Cristiano Ronaldo clones himself. Portugal wins their first cup. Portugal becomes a model for economic/scientific/football genius.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Cristiano Ronaldo injures himself while pretending that he was injured by a tackle. Portugal is pummelled, the economy tanks again.
Prediction: Ronaldo has enough offensive fire power (especially with his pal Nani) to overwhelm a couple minnows, but then runs smack dab into an equally potent offense in the next round. Round of 16.

In it, But Win it? #7 Africa's Best Hopes

Edison Erantes De Nacimento (known to his friends as Pele) once predicted that an African nation would win the World Cup by 2000. Of course, Pele has never really been proven as terribly accurate as a pundit, and four cups after his prediction expired, Africa's still without a top 4 finish to their name.

Will this year's batch of qualifiers flip the script and prove Pele right, right in front of him? Probably not, but let's make a bunch of overly eager predictions about them anyway!

Algeria
Contender Credentials: The Fennec Foxes have slowly established themselves as the preeminent power in North African football, and as a xenophobic French population grumbles about foreigners on the national team, they're getting more and more top flight talent to play for the mother land including fast rising defenders Faouxi Ghoulam (22, St. Etienne) and Aissa Mandi (22, Reims) and the Inter Milan based duo Saphir Taider (MF) and Ishak Belfodi (F).
Pretender Problems: With the decline of Morocco and the tumult around Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, it's not terribly surprising that Algeria is the top North African team. More tellingly, while this is their second straight Cup, their most experienced player (DF/Captian Majid Bougherra) has twice as many caps as the second most experienced talent. So "experience" is a bit of a misnomer for the side.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Buoyed by a raft of young talent and minimal expectations, Algeria stuns a few teams in the group stages to make a stirring run to the Round of 16.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Manager Vahid Halilhodzic fails to mention a curfew, the young Algerians go out partying in Brazil and a sleazy James Franco with corn rows turns them into the subject of Spring Breakers 2: Brazilian Boogaloo.
Prediction: There's lots of talent in Algeria's line-up, but there's lots of talent in everyone's line-up, and it doesn't make much of a difference (4th in Group)

Cameroon

Contender Credentials: With their trip to Brazil the Indomitable Lions will have made it to 7 of the last 9 world Cups. The quietly, doggedly, consistent West Africans are led by their greatest player since the legendary Roger Milla, Samuel Eto'o (currently making a major comeback with Chelsea). They'll be unlikely to quiver in the glare of the global spotlight.
Pretender Problems: The guys who played in Spain in 1982 aren't still on the pitch, worse still, neither are the players who gave Cameroon its first/only play-off round appearance in 1990. A team that often relies on Eto'o as their primary option still hasn't developed another forward who could partner with him, or take the torch once he makes his exit.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Eto'o's return to form inspires his younger teammates to greater heights and younger playmakers Alexandre Song (Barcelona) and Eynog Enoh (Ajax) use their Champion's league experience to set up another run to the quarters.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Eto'o gets hurt in training, a young backline gets gobbled up by faster opponents and Cameroon crashes out in the group stage, again.
Prediction: The Lions are always good for a historical montage, but they won't be making new memories in Brazil. (4th in Group)

Cote D'Ivoire
Contender Credentials: Ranked 17th in the World, the Ivorians are easily among the worlds' best teams. They've also been Africa's most impressive side for most of the past decade, making the quarter finals of every African Cup of Nations since 2006 (5 straight), and boast a star-studded line-up from their golden generation: Drogba, the Toures (Yaya and Kolou), Zokora and Barry.
Pretender Problems: The Golden Generation is starting to resemble the Golden Girls, which isn't much of a problem in the haphazard "we'll-give-you-credit-for-whatever-matches-you-play" world of the FIFA Rankings, but starts to look suspicious when stacked up against a host of other sterling international line-ups.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: The best African players on the planet turn up for one last hurrah, while training in a new generation of talent (Wilfred Bony, Serge Aurier, Ismael Diomande) en route to a stunning final victory over Brazil in the Final.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: There's a split in camp between the cool-older kids and the snot-faced tykes, there's no cute girls camp nearby to sneak into and build morale, the summer ends with an unsatisfying poop joke.
Prediction: There's too much talent for the Elephants to be denied a play-off berth in 3-straight-cups, but that's as far as they go. Second-in-Group, Round of 16

Ghana
Contender Credentials: If Cote D'Ivoire has been the best African side in recent history, Ghana has been the most World Cup Savvy side. And one could argue (as I often have argued) that they were robbed of a semi-final spot by Luis Suarez. The team seems to have only gotten deeper as the years have progressed and with local coach Kwesi Appiah on the sidelines, they've been in great form of late.
Pretender Problems: Appiah's a fan-base pleaser to be sure, but he seemed to alienate familiar faces like Kevin Prince Boateng, Michael Essien and Sully Muntari. And if the Black Stars are as good as I claim, then why haven't they won a major trophy since 1982?
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Essien and Muntari take it upon themselves to lead younger players in the midfield and defense, while Asamoah Gyan runs rampant beside Dede/Jordan Ayew up top and the Black Stars live up to the title of "The Brazil of Africa" in Brazil, taking home the continents first cup.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: All the sterling runs from Gyan, Ayew and Dominic Adiyiah mean nothing when the defense and goalkeeping is spotty, and Ghana can't escape another difficult group.
Prediction: Keeping up the tradition of going one better every four years (and breaking American hearts every four years), the Black Stars top the US in the Quarterfinals and finish 4th over all.

Nigeria
Contender Credentials: The Super Eagles were the first African side to advance from the Group Stages in consecutive world cups, and can also boast of being the top team on the continent as the reigning Cup of Nations Winner. They'll know Brazil better than most teams after the Confederations' Cup last summer, and they have one of the brightest young stars in African football in midfielder John Obi Mikel
Pretender Problems: Mikel can't do it all himself (as their poor showing in the Confederations' Cup proved). Nigeria has very few scoring options up top and a relatively untested batch of defenders in the back, meaning that, in all likelihood Mikel will have to do it all himself. Add to that, the total unpredictability of the Nigerian FA and it's impossible to say what Nigeria will do next.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Goalkeeper/Captain Vincent Enemya finds the magical words to motivate a rag tag bunch of youngsters around one superb player, all while he finds love in an unlikely place, teaches the president a thing or two and learns a valuable lesson about growing up.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: The surly president blusters and fusses, the young players wilt under the pressure, Enemya snaps and goes on a profane tirade and John Obi-Mikel ponders changing his citizenship.
Prediction:They play soccer matches, sometimes well, sometimes not well. Goodluck Jonathan wears a cool hat. (3rd in Group)

Happy Trails #43-33: So Close, Yet So Far

The final spot was booked, the full field is set, and the fearing and fretting has kicked into high gear before the World Cup Draw on Friday, December 6th.

We're exploring ways to cover the Draw live on the blog, and we'll make sure to include some more analyses of those teams who recently added their names to the roster before all that analysis is rendered utterly irrelevant by the actual draw.

But before we do any of that we should tip our hats in the direction of the last 11 teams to fall short of Brazil. In the last qualification round of our Happy Trails posts.

#43 La Revedere, Romania
Why they lost: After surviving the battle royale type scrum with Hungary and Turkey to snare second place. Romania ran into the Greek buzz saw. Losing the first leg 3-1 meant that, no matter how stout the back line of Razvan Rat and Vlad Chriches might get, it would take a bundle of goals to get ahead...a bundle of goals they did not have.

What we'll miss: The eternally appealing Romanian spinning soccer ball of death error message on our computer screens, plus occasional allusions to Georghi Hagi and Transylvania.


#42 Hej Da, Sweden
Why they lost: Cristiano Ronaldo. Wait, let me say that again as the Swedes will now say it: "Javla Cristiano Ronaldo". Shortly after Zlatan Ibrahimovic put the Swedes in the contest. Drew them even on aggragate with two masterful goals and appeared to have all the momentum going their way. Ronaldo scored twice to crush all of Solna under his, not inconsiderable boot.

What we'll miss: Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Who sounds like he could be a super hero or a Bond villain, and has an ego to match both of those personas and a talent that gets slightly less overblown media coverage than Ronaldo.

#41 Bless, Iceland

We're upset too Gylfi

Why they lost: They couldn't capitalize when it mattered the most. All square going into the second leg in Zagreb, Croatia. Iceland just needed stout defense and a single goal to win their first cup berth in decades worth of trying. Even after Mario Mandzukic struck to put the Croats ahead--when the home side went down to 10 men, Icelanders were entitled to some confidence. But the offense never materialized and a second Croatian goal sealed the deal.

What we'll miss: The slim, but palpable odds that Icelandic midfielder Gylfi Sigurðsson would not only guide his team to a victory or two in Brazil, but also finalize some sort of historic Brazilian-Icelandic fishing accord.

#40 Budte Zdorovi,  The Ukraine

Why they lost: Overconfidence maybe? The Ukrainians were ranked. The Ukranians were favored. The Ukrainians had a 2-0 lead going into France. But like Ireland 4 years before them, "The Team" was stunned at Saint-Denis, falling 3-0 and not even getting a shot at penalty kicks. Free travel tip to Mahamdou Sakho, don't plan on a tour of Crimea any time soon.

What we'll miss: Say what you will about Russian oligarchs, Ukranian oligarchs are just as crazy (and have a more onomatopoetically appealing ring to them). Better luck next time Petro Poroshenko, Pavlo Lazarenko and Sergiy Tigipko. There's always 2018.

#39 Senebti, Egypt
Why they lost: They lost 6-1 in Kumasi, Ghana during their first leg. Six goals to one. That was the ball game. Sure they won 2-1 at home in the second leg, but it would have taken a lot more from vets Amr Zaki and Gedo to make the difference, it just wasn't coming.

What we'll miss: Bob Bradley. The little appreciated national coach led Egypt to a 66% winning percentage over 2 years, during what was undoubtedly a challenging time for the nation, let alone the national side. Bradley got dumped, and we can only hope that some Egyptian smart aleck posted this question: ماذا عن بوب؟ (That's "What about Bob?" for those of you keeping track at home)

Okay, we won't whip towels, we promise

#38 Dehna Hunu, Ethiopia
Why they lost: As great a story as the Walia made, they just didn't have an answer for Nigeria's striking force, ceding two goal sat home and two goals on the road to turn a marvelous run into a marvelous moral victory.

What we'll miss: Sewnet Bishaw. I'm never going to get tired of cheering for the ex-gym teacher. Here's hoping we bump into you in a teacher's lounge sometime soon.

#37 M'asselema, Tunisia
Why they lost: The Eagles of Carthage had no luck at home and needed a result on the road in Cameroon to move on. Instead they got skunked 4-1. Though perhaps there was some Cape Verde jinx for sneaking into the third round based on disqualifications rather than stellar play.

What we'll miss: Talking about "The Eagles of Carthage" which is probably the best/most historically amusing nickname in all of African futbol. If she were alive today, Queen Dido would be proud (and probably stoned to death by some militant modern day Tunisians for fooling around with Aeneas)

#36 Si jaama, Senegal

Why they lost: I'm going to go ahead and blame Senegal themselves for this affair. Had they not thrown rocks, bottles and other projectiles at Ivory Coast back in October of last year they would have been able to host the second leg of this tie. Instead they had to play in Morocco and could only manage a draw in the biggest game for the country since the '02 cup.

What we'll miss: The sweetly simplistic Senegalese logo, which looks natural, artful, effortless and sincere. You know, all the things that Italian football isn't.

#35 Bilfu, Burkina Faso
Why they lost: The fastest rising stars in African Football, the Stallions of Burkina Faso finished second at this spring's African Cup of Nations. They had a lead over Algeria. They were on the verge of being a second debutante next year at Brazil, and yet it all came undone in a 1-1 draw, because in the 68th minute at Ouagadougou, Carl Medjani scored a second goal. That was Algeria's 2nd away goal. And though the teams finished level on total goals...the away goals were enough to determine that Algeria was a better team despite the fact they didn't beat Burkina Faso in either match. LOGIC!

What we'll miss: The simple joy of seeing a new team revel in the thrill of their first world cup. Sometimes there's no need for snark, just for satisfaction.

Jordan's national team is a step up here...

#34 Salaam, Jordan
Why they lost: Losing 5-0 at home was pretty much all that was required to spell the end of Jordan's run towards Brazil. Though they played more assertively in the second leg, they needed assertiveness more along the lines of "Hulk Smash" than "Hulk hold rival to a very defensively minded draw"

What we'll miss: The inevitable Nike cross-marketing promotion with Michael Jordan

#33 Aaroha Ni, New Zealand
Why they lost: Like Jordan, the Kiwis gave up 5 goals in the first leg (though thankfully on the road), but couldn't fare any better in the second leg than Jordan did. Proving that even the very best that Oceania has to offer is no match for a bedraggled and inconsistent Mexico.

What we'll miss: Tourism suggestions from Flight of the Concords

We know who's in, but do we know who will win? Yes...or rather, we know who will win our wildly inaccurate six month early predictions.

Stay tuned for those

In it, But Win It? #6: The Three Friendly Long Shots

I was going to call this post "The Three Amigos..." then I remembered the various quasi-racist offerings of that same name and thought, "meh...this is better".

Anyway, we're nearing the end of qualification, but for those happy few Central/South American teams who sealed the deal early the nerve-wracking part is over...for now. While Mexico and Uruguay fret and fuss over match-ups and terrible twists of fate that have landed them in the play-in rounds, these three squads are set to go...though whether it means anything or not is another matter entirely.

So here's a quick spin and ridiculously presumptuous analysis of three more qualifiers for next year's world cup.



Chile
Contender Credentials: The South American Roja will be making their second straight trip to the Mondiale in 2014 with a squad full of familiar faces that play among the top leagues in the world. In particular the front of Alexis Sanchez, Humberto Sourez and Jean Beausajour is back for blood.

Pretender Problems: Chile's biggest flaw is that, while many of their players are entering their prime, they don't have the unit cohesion that many of their rivals will. Spread throughout Europe and South America, they don't get to play together, save for international affairs. Last fall they dropped four straight and only qualified thanks to 5 wins in 6 matches to round out the campaign.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Their recent form is a sign of piecing everything together and--as the darkest of dark horses--they race to a surprising semi-final.
Pits of Despair Scenario: A rough European season depletes their experienced fronts and they're left as the butt of jokes in South America for the next four years.
Prediction: Chile are the Oakland A's of South American soccer, too often overlooked, but never a champion. Round of 16

Ecuador
Contender Credentials: Better known as "El-Tri-That-Actually-Already-Qualified", Ecuador have long been feared in South America, but little respected elsewhere in the World. Despite a disappointing campaign in 2010, they were back in fine form--looking comfortable throughout their campaign and have one of the most consistent leaders in South American Futbol: 2006 rising star/current-day captain Antonio Valencia of Man United
Pretender Problems: Mexico's non-union, South-American equivalent has problems similar to their northernly brethren. Their manager Reinaldo Ruena gets middling results, they seem utterly incapable of winning away from home and they had the straight up rotten luck to lose the fearsome striker Christian Benitez to a heart attack.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: My Ecuadorian student is right about an international conspiracy to stop Ecuador from showing up higher profile Argentina/Brazil/Uruguay, and a plucky squad of upstarts uncover the secret assassination plans while leading an inspirational underdog charge to the championship.
Pits of Despair Scenario: They can't get off the ground away from Quito. Literally. The pressure of playing so close to the ocean makes their ears pop and they lie in the fetal position for three weeks straight.
Prediction: There's a lot of enthusiasm/team-of-destiny fervor around Ecuador, but not enough talent to see them through. Third in their group


Honduras
Contender Credentials: La Bicolor is slowly rising in the ranks of continental powers. This is their second straight cup appearance, matching Costa Rica for the longest streak by any CONCACAF Team not named "Mexico" or "the United States of America". They're even rising up in global estimation with Wigan Athletic building a pipeline of sorts through Midfielder Roger Espinoza and Defender Juan Carlos Garcia
Pretender Problems: Okay...honestly? that record reflects a lot more of CONCACAF's weakness rather than Honduras' strength. Even qualification was something of a fortuitous break with Mexico playing so poorly that they backed in via a couple of draws against Panama and Jamaica. (Plus Garcia & Espinoza have a combined 12 Premier league caps)
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: They cement their rising star status with a shocking 2nd place finish and tightly contested Round of 16 match.
Pits of Despair Scenario: They forget to pack their shin guards and have to cover themselves in Spongebob Bandaids once the bigger kids start picking on them.
Prediction: Sorry Honduras, nothing doing...4th Place in their group

Starting XI: Our Favorites for November

Hey, how convenient, I need a list of 11 things for this month's starting 11 and there are exactly 11 spots left in the World Cup! Why not talk about who we'd love to see win those spots--most especially the underdogs who deserve it most.

I've crossed all my fingers for these guys.

I. Ethiopia over Nigeria--I've been meaning to write a profile on Ethiopian futbol and just how much I love their underdog story for months and haven't done it yet...sorry boys...but take solace from the fact that if there's one team I really want to see in next year's cup it's you. From coach Senwet Bishaw's history as Phy Ed teacher, to the national passion for the game (with over 1,000 local clubs it's second only to Algeria in that number), to the fact that they started playing the cup back in 2011. At that time they were 139th in the world, they ranked behind Nepal...behind Kazakhstan...behind St. Kitts and Nevis...and yet, they are still alive and all those teams (not to mention about 92 others) are gone. On top of that, there's a chance to embarrass the increasingly autocratic Goodluck Jonathan!!

They need to win by 2 goals IN Nigeria...so it's going to take some doing, but never, never sleep on the Walia.

II. Ivory Coast over Senegal--Strange as it is for me to write in favor of the underdog, I've got to toss in two cents for Cote d'Ivoire on this one for a single simple reason: they're the best that Africa has to offer. Rated in the top 20 in the world, filled with a line-up of potent and powerful players, they should easily be in line for a spot at the Cup and another dark horse label as Didier Drogba makes one last go of it on the world's biggest stage.

They need a win, a draw or a loss by a single goal (in Casablanca, Morocco, since Senegal is barred from hosting matches) for certain qualification

III. Tunisia over Cameroon--Fond as I am of geopolitcal rationales for who I root for and who I don't, Tunisia's a pretty easy squad to praise. One of two remaining Arab Spring nations in the cup, they're the only Arab Spring nation to maintain the veneer of moderation (as shown by people of all belief systems being pissed at the ruling party). Give the Eagles of Carthage a chance to develop a new strain of nationalist pride by booking them a spot in Brazil.

Having drawn the first leg in Rades, Tunisia will need a result in Cameroon to move on.

Sorry Bob-o, I've got to go against
you here...

IV. Ghana over Egypt--I've been to Ghana. I've lived in Ghana. I nearly died in Ghana (a little melodramatic maybe...but it was malaria and I had to be dragged to a doctor...if I'd been more stubborn things could have ended badly). Me pe Ghana, paa paa paa. (Plus, any nation that plays Shania Twain in public spaces as much as Ghana does has a secret affinity for us Montanans)

They've got a 6-1 lead over Egypt...it would take a disaster, or a Bob Bradley sized miracle for Egypt to reverse that lead.

V. Burkina Faso over Algeria--The Burkinabe are one of only two teams left in African qualifying who have never made it before. But unlike the Ethiopians, the Stallions have been rising up the FIFA rankings for several years now. They're ahead of traditional powers Senegal and Cameroon. They're a darling in the making and send a squadron of players throughout Europe to ply their trade. Plus, manager Paul Put needs something to hang his hat on, other than the unfortunate homonym-name game with the Cambodian warlord.

They've got a 3-2 lead over Algeria (who had their shot in 2010), so here's hoping Les Stalon can hold on for a draw or better in Blida

VI. Iceland over Croatia--When Burkina Faso and Algeria kickoff, the first of Europe's decisive kickoffs will  be happening in Zagreb for the second and decisive leg of Iceland v. Croatia. It's pretty easy to say that our favorite is Iceland. The only potential debutante left in Europe's field, Strakarnir Okkar (Our Boys) started their qualifying campaign ranked 122nd in the world...now, they're 46th. In their way are the Blazers of Croatia who have bored me since 1998...I blame the ugly checks.

Iceland had a better qualifying campaign than Croatia, they've got a higher profile star in Tottenham's Gylfi Sigourson, but they open at home and will likely need a draw at least in Zagreb.

VI. Sweden over Portugal--You can root for Zlatan Ibrohimovic who did this:


Or you can root for Christian Ronaldo who does this:

Yup go with Sweden

Portugal's quadrennial underachievement in qualification has yet to come back to burn them. If Sweden wants to keep the Selacao back in Lisbon, they'll likely need to spread a weaker midfield with Kim Kalstrom and Sebastian Larson. A point in the first leg would be a huge help.

VIII. Greece over Romania
I was all set to root for Romania, a chance to revisit the glory days of Georgi Hagi and the wild color wheel of a badge, it would be perfect. But did you know that Greece is higher ranked than France, Croatia and the Ukraine? Did you know that, rather than embracing the violent Golden Dawn neo-nazi political party, Greek footie fans attack Golden Dawn headquarters? Can you imagine how much the Greek economy would be boosted by cheap knockoff soccer things? (Probably not enough to eliminate the deficit, but still, it's a step in the right direction!

Starting in Priaeus rather than Athens (you know with all the fire/riot issues), Greece will need to start out well and hold off Romania in Bucharest in the second leg.

IX. France over the Ukraine
Sure France is another irritating side, but how would Americans cope with a world cup without fish-in-a-barrell "cheese eating surrender monkey" jokes. If the Ukraine is the price we have to pay...that's a pretty easy decision.

This is one of the most tightly contested ties, but it ends in Saint-Denis home of famous French triumphs (the '98 Cup) and infamous French triumphs (the Hand of Frog).

X. Jordan over Uruguay
Two easy deciding factors here: Uruguay has Luis Suarez, easily my least favorite player on the planet (both for his behavior and for the Ghana quarterfinal three years ago), Jordan has never been to a World Cup. Without doubt, Uruguay should win...but just rooting for the people who should win is pretty darn dull.

It's vital that Jordan get off the mark strong at home in Amman, Uruguay will have to come to them from all around the world. The better the home score the more work Uruguay has to do back Montevideo a week later. A good home win could seal the upset over a flat and inconsistent Celeste squad.

XI. Mexico or New Zealand?
I've been going in the order of the games until now...because I genuinely have no idea who to root for here. Do you root for the Kiwis: the apple-cheeked underdogs who have the longest most inconvenient route to qualification (thanks a lot Pacific Ocean) and yet were a tremendous threat in South Africa helping to undo Italy's defense hopes (always good for some bonus points in our book). Or do you root for a team with a greater legacy, a greater history, a greater need for this trip after a tumultuous qualifying campaign (and a team who...if not in the cup will likely depress revenues, ratings and income for everyone associated with the tournament--that's not the point of the games of course, but it would be nice if people weren't calling it a flop before it ever started). I genuinely don't know: Chicharito or Shane Smeltz? Either team would be fun to root for...until they face the US.

IBWI: Europe's Top Offerings

We're just a few weeks away from all of European futbol descending into a pitched dog-eat-dog, man-beats-man, no-holds-barred, battle-to-the-dismemberment for five measly plane tickets for Brazil. But while those teams have work still to do, four others punched their own tickets by finishing top of their qualifying groups in October.

We could wait for the full field to be set, the groups to be arranged and the rosters to be finalized before we predict their results...but that sounds responsible/lame. So let's just make inaccurate assertions to fill up time.

Russia
Contender Credentials: The double headed Eagle and former powerhouse will be making their first appearance since 20002 in advance of hosting the cup themselves in four years time. They topped perennial qualifier Portugal in their group, boast a tightly knit group of players who all ply their trade in the Russian premier league, and have media-darling manager Fabio Capello as their coach.

Pretender Problems: Topping Portugal in qualifying's a lot easier than in the real thing. The only real chance for Russian Premier League players to face top tier opponents is the Champions' League, which means that unless you play for CSKA Moscow...good luck. And having a media-darling manager wears thin...just ask England (Capello's last squad)

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Vladmir Putin steps in as a shirtless center half and guides the team to the title (possible through KGB tactics, but who really cares?)
Pits of Despair Scenario: Ongoing international spats cause Putin to through a pout and keep the team home leading to the first intentional disqualification since India in 1950.
Prediction: They go, they have one good match, they struggle against a better team and one they should beat and Capello's star dims further as they wind up 3rd Place in the Group

Our First Debutante

Bosnia/Herzegovina

Contender Credentials: The Golden Lilies debut in the World Cup having soared as high as 13th in the world and with two players (Edin Dzeko and Vedad Ibevic) with more than 8 goals (only Argentina has a similar tandem: the slightly higher profile Messi/Higuain). Their defense was similarly stingy ceding only 6 goals in all of qualifying.

Pretender Problems: The Lilies lost their #13 ranking swiftly when they were squashed by America (yes...America) at home. Take away their absurd 21 combined goals in victories over Lichtenstein and Latvia and their totals are slightly less impressive (7 of Dzeko's 10 came in those games). Then again, they also ceded half their goals to the mighty forces of Lichtenstein and Latvia...so maybe that Defense merits some questioning too.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Not content to just appear in the Cup, Bosnia is inspired to push themselves to greater heights and inspires a new golden generation to pick up the game with a second round berth.
Pits of Despair Scenario: Coach Safet Susic has to go into hiding after all his timidity and substitution quirks cost them any continued glory.
Prediction: They're by no means incompetent, but they're also unlikely to reach the same heights against better competition: 4th Place


England
Contender Credentials: They have some of the world's most prolific players, who all earn their keep playing in the world's toughest league, many of whom also face off against the best teams in Europe, while facing the relentless pressure of the World's most intense fan base. And even if they didn't have all those things, they still invented the darn thing!

Pretender Problems: As long as there have been World Cups there have been English teams finding new ways to lose them. Every four years the entire (English speaking) world is deluged with predictions of England finally taking back what is rightfully theirs, and every four years they find a way to screw it up (or almost screw it up). Is it really crazy to predict the same thing again this time?

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Inspired by enough media coverage to make a Kardashian blush, the Three Lions finally get their just reward and take home the spoils from the cursed usurpers land.
Pits of Despair Scenario: The WAGS are disappointing, the players are more so, the sun is too hot and Sepp Blatter is so irritated by their complaints that he connives to cheat them out of all three matches.
Prediction: It's England, so they'll survive the group stage. But it's England, so they'll screw it up in the Round of 16

Spain
Contender Credentials: Credit where it's due, the Red ones, The Red Fury, or the Fury are the best team in the world. They have the trophy from South Africa, they have the number one ranking in the world, they've won an absurd three straight major tournaments. They've lost one game in two years [to Brazil, in Brazil]. Until they're beaten, they are the team to beat.

Pretender Problems: Until 2010 Spanish futbol was known much more for their ability to squander opportunities than for their ability to finish them. With the golden generation of Spanish talent rapidly passing 30 and entering their decline, a repeat may be difficult--especially since the tournament takes place in South America.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: South America, Shmouth America; the most indomitable collection of international talent racks up a second title as nonchalantly as they do everything else. Every other national association pays obscene sums of money for the secrets to player development and solves the Spanish debt crisis.
Pits of Despair Scenario: A couple of injuries keep heroes like Villa, Xabi, Xavi, Iniesta and others from playing. Latin Americans take their vengeance on conquistadors by intentionally ruining the erstwhile colonizers return.
Prediction: As golden as all get-out, Spain slides into the Quarter-Finals when an unfortunate red-card and a little homefield advantage send them home.

Happy Trails #59-44

With only a few weeks left in the qualifying campaigns, lets pause for a second to recognize some of the teams that have fallen by the wayside, in their quest for the World Cup.

#59 Latumire, Albania

WOOO! We Love you Ismail!

Why they lost: The Red and Black Eagles only won two games at home, drawing against Norway and losing to Iceland and Switzerland. For an cranky, insular, ex-cold-war rival, you'd think that protecting the home front would be a little more important for Albanians.

What we'll miss: Our annual shout out to Ismail Kadare! Superb poet, perennial Nobel candidate, only Albanian we actually remember.

#58 Snakkes, Norway

Why they lost: The golden age of Norwegian futbol is almost 20 years in the rear view mirror now. Desperate to improve things the National Federation brought back master manager, Egil Olsen, who helped guide the Norwegians to the Mondiale's in both the US and France. This time he got the team up to 11th in the world in 2011, but crashed out violently for the fourth straight time.

What we'll miss: According to Wikipedia, Olsen has an encyclopedic knowledge of geographic trivia. Maybe we could have asked him to list the 12 longest isthmuses in the world.

#57 Tsedesutyun, Armenia

Why they lost: Stunningly, shockingly, Armenia was alive in the race for a spot up until the moment Mario Balotelli scored a tying goal with just 14 minutes left in Naples. If Armenia had won that game they would have been in tremendous position to finish second and get a playoff spot in the play-in round. So if you want to blame Mario Balotelli for everything, (1) I assume you're an Italian citizen, (2) you can add the crushing of Armenian hopes and dreams to the pile.

What we'll miss: At 24, Henrikh Mkhitaryan is already a vice-captain, has 12 goals in 40 matches, and is soaring up the lists of desirable prospects in Europe (from Borussia Dortmund to Liverpool).


#56 Zbogom, Bulgaria

Why they lost: Coming in to the final match in second place in their group, The Lions were in the driver's seat looking for a playoff position. According to fans, they brought a serious attacking mentality against the Czech Republic to try getting a win, up their goal differential and get a playoff spot. Sadly the attacking mentality left the defense open and they lost 1-0. Ending their chances.

Stick it Krum-Bum

What we'll miss: Continuing the quidditch shout outs we sent to the Peru national side--we have to assume that Viktor Krum would be a big supporter of the Bulgarian national side.

#55 Slan libh, Ireland

Why they lost: Hard as it is for me (as a Scotsman) to say, it probably didn't have anything to do with Leprechauns, Guinness, or lousy whisky. But you have to admit, it's a pretty thin team after Robbie Keane and John O'Shea (both of whom are on the wrong side of 30)

What we'll miss: The chance for Irish quidditch players to rub Viktor Krum's face in another humiliating defeat.


#54 Lehit, Israel

Why they lost: Popular as futbol is in Israel, it usually places second next to the favorite past-time of "staying alive/keeping loved ones alive in a place that is constantly on the brink of war." Until they get their priorities straight, they'll continue to struggle. [This moronic obliviousness to serious world issues is brought to you by ESPN, ESPN: minimizing important things in life since 1979]

What we'll miss: The musical magic that appears everytime you say Yossi Benayoun's name.

Anybody want a helping?

#53 Do Videnja, Montenegro

Why they lost: For a while the brave falcons actually led their group over the Ukranians and English. But as all good things (including a traditional Montenegrin dinner of black risotto and cuttlefish), it was not to last. STUPID TRANSIENT NATURE OF LIFE!!

What we'll miss: Trying to make black risotto and cuttlefish in honor of the Montenegrins.

The 5th 2010 Finalist Eliminated

#52 Zhivijo, Slovenia

Why they lost: Coming off of their second world cup appearance in South Africa (and one where they very nearly slipped into the second round past the maddeningly indecisive American/English teams), hopes were high throughout Slovenia. Finishing behind upstarts Iceland has left them as cold as...well...Iceland. Notably, the National team dropped two vital matches at home in Stozice Stadium in Ljubljana, the second to aforementioned Iceland in front of just 6,000 fans. (Maybe hopes weren't that high)

Eat your heart out Christian Bale!

What we'll miss: Samir Handanovic's goalkeeping, which apparently has inspired at least one person to see him as not the hero we want, but the hero we need.

#51 Ahoj, Czech Republic

Why they lost: A lousy showing in September (with losses against Armenia at home and Italy) pretty much sealed the deal for the erstwhile champions of Eastern Europe. Now Peter Cech and Tomas Rosicky will have to spend their summer vacation drying their eyes with huge fistfuls of Premier league money.

What we'll miss: The logo! This post's winner of "Coolest National Team Crest For an Eliminated Team.

#50 Hoskcacal, Turkey

Why they lost: You could blame a young group of players or a cannibalistic qualification group or uncertainty this summer over national certainty due to Recep Tayyip Erdogan's increasingly authoritarian rule. But, I prefer to blame increasing immigration into Germany and a steep decline in Turkey being able to count on the best young Turkish talent. Thus the great ballet of geopolitical/economic exchange claims another victim.

What we'll miss: The chance to recall the sepia toned glory days of Hakan Sukur and Turkey's miraculous 3rd place finish in 2002. You know...the olden days.


#49 Vislat, Hungary

Why they lost: Malnourishment (ba-dum-ching! HUNGARY PUN!) Seriously though, no matter how close Hungary was, the 8-1 butt kicking it got at the hands of the Dutch on October 11th made it all irrelevant.

What we'll miss: American announcers failing horribly at pronunciations of Balazs Dzsudzsak! [Bolage Jujak]


#48 Abe D'ehre, Austria

They're thawed for every home game

Why they lost: It was an impressive campaign for "Das Team" who make up for the bland nickname with a balanced squad that plays in some of the top leagues in Europe. But taking only four points from the combination of Germany and Kazakhstan, while second place Sweden took seven definitely accounts for the third place finish

What we'll miss: Pre-game, half-time and post-game performances by the Von Trapp family!

The 6th 2010 Finalist Eliminated

#47 Vi Ses, Denmark

Why they lost: The Danes finished second in their group but came up short as the worst second place finisher from round 1, ending their chances of qualification. (If you want to nitpick, the loss at home against Armenia--4-0 no less--cut into their point totals and left them a point shy--had they won, Croatia would be in this spot).

What we'll miss: A chance at a second interview with Hamlet, Prince of Denmark

#46 Nos Vemos, Venezuela

Sorry Nicky, but you can't
out-crazy the crazy one.

Why they lost: The Burgundy are the only South American nation to never qualify for the World Cup. Never. Not once. In history. Next in the ranks of continental ineptitude is Bolivia, and even though they have a -19 goal differential in their 6 matches, that is precisely 19 goals more than Venezuela has even dreamt of...because they lost, which is probably a direct result of NEVER WINNING!

What we'll miss: President Nicolas Maduro's attempts to spin a sporting victory into an endorsement of socialist policies/The Ghost of Hugo Chavez haunting opposing goalies.

We like him for
fashion sense alone

#45 G'bye, Jamaica

Why they lost: [Insert stereotypical assumption about Jamaican life here], or more likely there's the fact that Thoedore Whitmore made a better player (scoring a winning goal over Japan in 19998) than he did a manager (getting walloped in 5 straight Hexegonal qualifiers

What we'll miss: Inspiring ourselves to greater feats and better writing with classic motivational scenes from Cool Runnings

#44 Panama

Why they lost: Despite a massive improvement in the quality of play by the Canal Men (including two semi-final appearances in the last two Gold Cups) they still were unable to get over the hump in World Cup Qualification with the glorious final goal by Raul Jiminez sealing their fate.

What we'll miss: Attempting more palindromic sentences like "A man appears, reap Panama"(all sentences have to start with "A man...but still it's good fun"