Shooting From the Hip: The Western Hemisphere (CONCAF/CONMEBOL)

With this summer's confederation cups wrapped up, International competition is about ready to refocus on qualification for the 2018 World Cup. Most people won't pay much attention to these matches for another two years...but those people aren't crazy Montanans (thankfully, or I'd have no niche market at all).

Since the qualifying draws were held two weeks ago in Russia, I've been positively deliberate in creating these predictions (oh, who am I kidding, I made the predictions on the day and only just took the time to write it).

We'll start our predictions in the Western Hemisphere with predictions for rounds three and four of CONCACAF (which will be wrapped up next year) and the single round of CONMEBOL (which won't end until the fall of 2017).

CONCACAF ROUND 3

August 31st-September 15 2015

Matches:

Curacao V. El Salvador

Canada V. Belize

Grenada V. Haiti

Jamaica V. Nicaragua

St. Vincent and the Grenadines V. Aruba

Antigua and Barbuda V. Guatemala

The Favorites:

In CONCACAF the safest way to predict things is to count on the higher ranked teams moving on, chalk talks in North America, with the lone possible exception at matches in Central America.  Haiti's recent form (including a game performance against the US and a draw against China--in China) has served them well enough to make them a heavy favorite over Grenada, and Jamaica's Gold Cup Silver Medal and Caribbean Cup victory certainly gives them momentum over Nicaragua. This draw also plays to those groups with Guatemala, El Salvador and Canada all facing minnows both of size and of history.

Some would say I cheer for McCaulay
and Belize because I like to mock Canada...
those people are right.

The Darkhorses: The most prolific scorer in recent CONCACAF qualifier history is Deon McCaulay who Minnesota fans may know best from a fourteen cap, three goal performance with the Atlanta Silverbacks last year. His 11 goals made him a co-golden boot winner from qualification alongside little known strikers Luis Suarez and Robin Van Persie. Some would point out that this is more a reflection of the paucity of CONCACAF defenses and the lack of a second option in Belize, but the truth is somewhat in between as McCaulay is indeed a force up top and a key difference maker for the Jaguars, even if it is about to set him up against a stout Canadian defense.

The only oddball match up is between underwhelming sides from St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Aruba where the "Vincy Heat" ceded 6 goals and needed away goals to pass Guyana and after a year off the field, Aruba came up goalless in two matches against Barbados, relying on Barbados disqualifying themselves to advance.

Qualifiers

El Salvador; Belize; Haiti; Jamaica; St. Vincent; Guatemala

CONCAF ROUND 4

November 2015-September 2016

Top Two Teams from Each Group Qualify for the Hexagon

GROUP A: Mexico, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize

Never gets old...unless you're the
Mexican FA

Favorites: Despite the run-of-the-mill (by team Mexico standards) coaching drama, selection drama and performance anxiety, El Tri is still a team to beat especially within CONCACAF. The days of Giovanni Dos Santos and Javier Hernandez as the heralds of a supposed "Golden Generation" have faded, but they still represent some of the youngest talent on a veteran Mexico squad. As ever, the only thing that can get in Mexico's way, is Mexico. 

Dark Horse: Though they are often the chosen whipping boys for beefier sides in North and South America, El Salvador boasts a young and growing squad that continues to cut its teeth in foreign leagues. My fellow Minnesotans may recognize Midfielders Dustin Corea (Edmonton), Richard Menjivar (Tampa Bay) and 24-year-old captain Andres Flores (New York Cosmos). "La Selecta" may be peaking at just the right time, particularly with a mishmash of a Honduras squad that has been erratic and best and dismal at worst since their qualification for last June's World Cup.

GROUP B: Costa Rica, Panama, Haiti, Jamaica

Favorite: Los Ticos set the world on fire with their quarterfinal appearance last summer, and nearly set themselves on fire to protest the match fixy unfortunate refereeing in their quarterfinal against Mexico. Truth be told the last three months have not been kind to Costa Rica, with scuffles against Panama, Colombia and Spain, and lackluster draws against Mexico, Jamaica and El Salvador.  Still, the talent and recent success of the team makes them the team to beat in Group B.

Dark Horse: It's a shame really, because I can talk myself into all three of the other squads cruising through qualification in Group C and having a better than average chance in Group A. While I've talked before about Jamaica's defense being its new found key to success (a 370 minute goalless stretch during the Gold Cup was instrumental in their silver medal), and though Haiti is an intriguing squad of international vagabonds (two play in NASL, two in India, and two in Cyprus), I think it's worth noting the perennially, unregarded Panama squad that earned its third place finish at the 2015 Gold Cup--and maybe even more thanks to the aforementioned idiotic questionable refereeing of any game Mexico played in. In Panama's last six confederation tournaments they've made the semis in five and they had the pole position for World Cup Qualifying in 2013 until a miraculous bicycle kick pushed Mexico on. Only one of those three teams will hit the Hexagon, and until proven otherwise I think it's Panama.

The Panamaian Version of Morten Andersen

GROUP C: USA, Trinidad and Tobago, St Vincent/Grenadines, Guatemala

Favorite: U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A! Seriously, who cares if we can't figure out a back line, create consistent service or find a second goal scoring option behind an aging Clint Dempsey, we're America dad blast it and we will win this group!! U-S-A!! U-S-A!! Klinsmann for Chancellor!!

Also, a Guatemala win is a win for
70s FA logos!

Dark Horse: Despite the Soca Warriors recent offensive outburst (built largely through veteran striker Kenwyne Jones) their swings in play (they lost to Curacao in May but won their Gold Cup group), make them an ideal target for an upset minded squad. Enter Guatemala (La Furia Azul) who have balanced veteran strikers with a young and energetic midfield many of whom play together at CSD Comunicaciones, the dominant force in the Guatemalan league. 

HEXAGON QUALIFIERS: Mexico, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama, USA, Guatemala

CONMEBOL

September 4th, 2015-October 10th 2017

South America does it simply: All ten teams play each other in a standard round-robin league style. The top four advance, fifth place takes on Oceania's best team (*HINT* IT'S NEW ZEALAND!) for a play-in (*HINT* THE SOUTH AMERICAN TEAM IS GOING TO SUCCEED!!)

Favorites: There's little point in rehashing how dominant Argentina has become, nor how quietly consistent Chile is and how ineffably promising Colombia appears. Those three squads, even with two years and 18 matches to play, look like easy qualifiers. 

Yes, Enner, I'm excited about your chances too!

Dark Horse: The far bigger drama is whether any team can snipe a spot from the aging giants of the South American game: Brazil and Uruguay. While Dunga's Brazil has been a Bizarro-World version of the Selacao that the world came to know and fear (and even the methodical branding machine that made Ronaldo's crew so ubiquitous), Uruguay has seen their recent success pull a quiet nucleus farther apart on the world stage making reunions and consistency difficult. The recent Copa America showed just how easily local minnows can outperform their higher profile neighbors, with Paraguay, Bolivia and Peru each offering a surprise. But CONMEBOL qualifying isn't a sprint, it's a marathon, and the only squad that looks equipped at that task (despite their own lackluster performance in Chile this summer) is Ecuador. With both big game experience and a habit of consistently seeking out tougher competition for the next generation to compete with, Los Amarillos have a solid chance to surprise, particularly if players like Jonathan Gonzalez and Carlos Gruezo see greater opportunities in the upper levels of foreign leagues to build their confidence with the corps of a national team based in country.

PREDICTED AUTO QUALIFIERS: Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Brazil

PLAY-OFF TEAM: Ecuador

Starting XI: Cashing In--World Cup Transfers and the Price of Beef Jerky

In honor of Labour Day, let's appreciate what it's all about: honoring the workers of the world...especially those who have made an obscene amount of money via the transfer window after the world cup. (I assume that was Marx's vision: "From each club according to their means, to each player according to a completely random sum of ever increasing money."



Let's go ahead and total the tonnage of cash expended in the last two months on players who grabbed eyeballs and earned screams from the various supporters and rivals in terms of how much they are making, and how much beef jerky (particularly--Hi-Country Top Quality Beef Jerky--11 ounce packages at $12.95 each) they seem to be worth

I. Claudio Bravo (Chile/Barcelona Goalkeeper)--10 Million Pounds Transfer Fee/1.28 Million packs of Jerky. 
The highest transfer fee for a keeper this window, Bravo is a more reliable and known property than the world's most darling keeper: Keylor Navas (who still drew in a handsome 8 Million from Real Madrid). His hard luck loss in the playoff round against Brazil didn't bother Barca, nor should it.


II. Luke Shaw (England/Manchester Utd Defender)--33 Million Pound Transfer/4.23 Million packs of Jerky
England's underwhelming performance wasn't laid at the feet of Luke Shaw. After all, his one match (v.s. Costa Rica) was the only one where the Lions kept the ball out of the back of the net. Shaw joined the exodus out of surprising South Hampton this summer heading for the read devils for a wad of cash, and an equal amount of Teriyaki Beef Jerky.

III. David Luiz (Brazil/Paris St. Germain Defender)--43 Million Pounds Transfer/5.49 Million packs of jerky

The most famous head of hair from the back line of Brazil, Luiz left the premiership for the more fashionable and stylish Paris St. Germain. With all the money and praise, one has to hope that Luiz recognizes that he can and should run...even if there are Germans against him.

IV. Elaquim Mangala (France/Manchester City Defender) 35 Million Pounds Transfer/5.46 Million Packs of Jerky
While Mangala, did not feature for France, there was still considerable enthusiasm for him, particularly amongst the Premierships most reliable money geyser: Manchester City. As he matures and grows, you have to hope that he's reliable in defense...or at least, you do if you're French.


V. Angel Di Maria (Argentina/Manchester United Winger)--65 Million Pound Transfer/8.3 Million Packs of Jerky
The most recent transfer (required once United started stinking like yesterday's fish) Di Maria had been having a fine World Cup until an injury 33 minutes into the semifinal left him sitting and staring as Germany triumphed. I imagine that he can dry his eyes on his huge piles of money...or his huge piles of Honey Kist jerky, which would be more absorbent.

VI. James Rodriguez (Colombia/Real Madrid Midfielder)--70 Million Pound Transfer/8.93 Million Packs of Jerky
The hottest name at the World Cup (hotter even than "Hansel"), James (pronounced Ha-mez) was the undeniable star of the undeniable tournament darling. He may well be the man in the middle for one of the most eagerly anticipated squads at Russsia 2018. But before then he'll be the heir apparent to Cristiano Ronaldo amongst Los Galacticos

VII. Antoine Griezman (France/Atletico Madrid Midfielder)--26 Million Pound Transfer/3.31 Million Packs of Jerky
Sure, there are other players who were deemed to be worth a little more money, but we've got a soft spot for Griezmann, our previously noted "Hip-Star" for the French squad, who did quite well in coverage for Franck Ribery. So well, in fact that Les Blus might have been the last real threat to Germany's title aspirations. Now he's on with La Liga champions and looking thoroughly eager for more glory.

VIII. Alexis Sanchez (Chile/Arsenal Winger)--33 Million Pound Transfer/4.23 Million packs of Jerky
When Chile was at their best in Brazil, it usually had something to do with Alexis Sanchez, darting, dodging, digging deep and doing other things that start with D. Now with the Gunners, Sanchez has perhaps even weightier expectations on his shoulders with Arsenal expecting a trophy at last. With that much heavy lifting ahead, he may want to invest some of his money in power packed protein of peppered Hi-Country Jerky!


IX. Romelu Lukaku (Belgium/Everton Forward)--31 Million Pound Transfer/3.95 Million Packs of Jerky
Lukaku is best known by American fans as "that-guy-who-crushed-our-dreams". But, as a herd of world cup fans make the segue to the Premiership, a large proportion of us seem likely to adopt Lukaku's new squad--the under awarded, highly enthusiastic Toffees of Liverpool. Just remember fellow hipster US/Everton fans--he did celebrate crushing our dreams by saying "Hi Mom"

X. Diego Costa (Spain/Chelsea Forward)--33 Million Pounds Transfer/4.23 Million packs of Jerky
The most valuable player in La Liga last year, the man who almost single handedly delivered Atletico Madrid the title (above Barcelona, above cross town rivals Real Madrid), he now has a chance to prove himself in the Premiership amongst the similarly high profile, highly paid Chelsea signings.

XI. Luis Suarez (Uruguay/Barcelona Forward)--71 Million Pounds Transfer/9.05 Million Packs of Jerky
The most expensive transfer of the summer is also, perhaps the most controversial. Infamous around the world due to his repeated and almost incomprehensible biting habits, Suarez completes a trio of world class South American strikers alongside Lionel Messi and Neymar. Unfortunately, in making those transfers, Barcelona has put themselves into a position where they will not be allowed to make any further transfers for a year. There are all kinds of comments to make here about Suarez, biting, money and jerky...but come on...Hi-Country doesn't deserve to be tarnished by association with Suarez.

Happy Trails: 16-9

16: Adios, Uruguay
Why They Lost: Generally speaking when your only real goal scorer is banned from competition for biting guys you're doomed.
What We'll Miss: Hating Uruguay (lousy cheating so and so's...)

15: O dabo, Nigeria
Why They Lost: Their low expectations were critical to helping Nigeria squeak through Group F, but they didn't have much offense if any to help them create, only Ahmed Musa looked willing to make things happen for the Super Eagles
What We'll Miss: Both Vincent Enyema's spectacular keeping and the fact that this team looked ready to distract people from the creeping cruelty of Boko Haram.

14: A Revair, Switzerland
Why They Lost: It was gouda of them to come and play, but I never really bris-lieved they would be a serious camembert...Seriously though, Switzerland was sloppy throughout the group stage, and only seemed to qualify due to Ecuador's rotten luck
What We'll Miss: Cheese jokes...my god the Cheese jokes.

13: Hasta La Vista, Mexico
Why They Lost: Pick your scape goat--Arjen Robben's floppery? The Ref's believing him? Or maybe Rafa Marquez for being chippy enough to be a dubious victim in anyway.
What We'll Miss: Miguel Herrera, please come be an AYSO coach, so you can bring your unique brand of freak-outs to us all.

12: Gim di Lehna, Algeria

Did someone say Islam Slimani?

Why They Lost: As infuriating as their defense was, Les Fennecs had a devil of a time breaking down defenses (other than Islam Slimani) someone, any kind of distributor would be valuable there.
What We'll Miss: The Fennec itself is pretty darn adorable when you get down to it, and add to that the fact that Algeria will be donating its FIFA prize money to the displaced people of Palestine and you have a pretty lovable crew

11: Totes Later, USA
Why They Lost: There's lots of things to pick out--lack of athleticism, Michael Bradley's maddeningly inconsistent play, overly defensive strategy, Jozy Altidore's injury...but I'm going to pin the blame on our inability to retain possession. You can win if you sit back and wait out  an early lead, but you can also win if you never give up the ball.

It's more fun to think about Tim Howard
than any of these other teams...

What We'll Miss: The chance to yell "TIMMY!" at inappropriate intervals.

10: Xaire, Greece
Why They Lost: Kaylor Navas shut them down in the penalty shoot out...after a tonnage of cards from the Australian referee gave them a better chance to win than they really deserved.
What We'll Miss: The butchery of Greek names and comments about how old their defense is.

9: Chao, Chile
Why They Lost: Since I've grown totally irrationally fond of him, I'll say it's because they pulled Gary Medel and didn't let him have a shot against Julio Caesar in the penalty shoot out
What We'll Miss: Being on El Rojo's bandwagon before it was cool to be on their bandwagon.

Waning Seconds: Groups A & B

Let's take a quick glimpse at exactly what must be done for teams to qualify, or, in the case of others not heading in to the last round of matches.

MORNING--
Netherlands V.s. Chile
This is just a game for positioning as both the Dutch and Chileans are through to the knockout rounds. The question is who will win the group and who will finish second. (There may be different desires based on the morning matches and where Brazil finishes). The Dutch have an inside track on goal differential, so a draw favors them, but Chile doesn't seem terribly impressed with any opponent and given the Oranje's struggles with Australia, La Roja might push up in an attempt to escape rival Brazil and face either the Croats or Mexico.

Spain V.s. Australia--A match for pride, expect the Aussies to go for the points, and Spain to sleepwalk their way hoping they can sit down and rest for a while.

AFTERNOON--

Brazil V.s. Cameroon
Brazil has the benefit of facing the already eliminated Cameroon. They have an even bigger benefit of facing a Cameroon squad that looks very eager to get the heck away from each other as soon as possible. If they get a point they move on, if they get a win, they are likely to win the group.

Croatia V.s. Mexico
This one's for all the marbles. It's win or go home for Croatia, while Mexico can benefit from either a win or a draw (win by enough and they might even unseat Brazil at the top of the group, though that would require strong defense from Cameroon...but there's a first time for everything). The only way both teams go through is if Cameroon beats Brazil....I'm sorry, I'm sorry I thought I could write that with a straight face....couldn't make it.

3 On/3 Off: Matches Seventeen-Nineteen

We're starting to see teams drop off the map, getting ready for the inevitable Happy Trails post at the end of this round, the plus side is it makes recapping who is up and who is down a heckuva lot easier.

ON: Mario Mandzukic--Clearly the Bayern Munich man knew what he was doing, setting up one goal, scoring two more, and generally being the ultimate thorn in the side of Cameroon. Croatia's nowhere near their 1998 peak, but Mandzukic is rapidly inserting himself alongside Madrid's Modric as a man worth watching at all times.
OFF: Alex Song--Meanwhile Barca's buddy Alex Song has joined the ranks of infamy with his cousin Rigobert (red carded in two consecutive world cups) and Portugal's Pepe for some of the most boneheaded play on the world's biggest stage. Between a mock strike before the cup, a thanks-refs-for-making-it-closer-than-it-should-have-been game against Mexico and the disaster in Manaus, Song may just be the most convenient scape goat...but still...if it walks like a goat and bleats like a goat...

ON: Gary Medel--Sure we named him our Hip-Star of Chile's team and touted them to break through to the second round, and that may account for a lot of why we keep plugging him here, but, c'mon, be honest, the man was a maniac in the back against La Furia Roja, shutting down as much as captain/keeper Bravo and displaying the tenacity that has made him beloved in Cardiff.
OFF: Vicente Del Bosque--The mastermind of the past 3 Championships seems to be all out of brain cells. Nothing he tries works. Nothing he draws up comes true. No substitute provides a spark, and the team that had the whole world quaking in their boots has been exposed like a Bat Boy in the Weekly World News. Sorry Boss.

ON: Robben & Robin--If ever there was a Dutch superhero duo it might just be Robin^2. They've got style, they've got panache and they've got just the right touch to make opponents dread getting up in the morning. Of course, the history of World Cups is littered with teams who made two good showings...so, temper those hopes everyone.
OFF: Common Wisdom--Australia stinks. Really, really stinks. They'll be lucky to smell the goal. That's the sense that common wisdom had of the Socceroos before the cup began, and sure, they still don't have a point to their name, but if you had to face a team right now with all your lunch money on the line would you rather face Austrlia or Spain?...Yeah...me too.

3 On/3 Off: Matches Two-Four

Day two of the World Cup saw more highs through beautifully headed goals, and more lows through dubious officiating. We sum it all up in our "3 On/3 Off" Post


ON: Miguel Herrera--We don't know if Miguel Herrera has a twitter account, we don't know if he cares what the world thinks of him (running Mexico and benching Chicharito...probably not). But the man seemed to have every soccer fan on the planet giddy today, as he endured rain and poor refereeing to be a regular source of amusement in an otherwise blase game.
OFF: Wilmer Roldan and Colombian Referees
Not watching the game, I couldn't say for certain, but judging by Twitter's near incessant explosions and vows of violence against them, I would wager that the game was not judged well...bad news for zebras, whistle blowers and FIFA employees everywhere.

ON: Robin Van Persie--the magical strike before half time swung the game's momentum radically and permanently, and Van Persie's moment of glory will likely have repurcussions far beyond a delighted home crowd and obsessive twittersphere.

OFF: Iker Casillas--He came into the match looking to break a World Cup record for most minutes without allowing a goal. He left a broken shell of what he once was...and that's not me being hyperbolic, he really looked utterly lost and woebegone, like the whole backbone of Spanish soccer crumbled into dust in 50 minutes.

ON: Tim Cahill's Legs--Aged though he is, Tim Cahill still has some ups, and he used them to great effect, pulling Australia single handedly back into their game. The Socceroos may be the most overmatched team in the Cup, but Cahill won't let them go down without a fight
OFF: Chile's Beat-Around the Bush Offense--Sure La Roja won, but their dominance in attacking should have yielded a score much closer to Holland's +4 than their paltry +2. The blame for that lies less on Australia's defense (which often looked shaky), and more on Chile's tepid attack, which relied on playing back for set up after set up that went no where.

Today's is overloaded with goodness, kicking off with Colombia/Greece, then Uruguay/Costa Rica, the big show: England/Italy, and wrapping up with Ivory Coast/Japan

Starting XI: Ridiculously Specific Predictions!

The World Cup is about to start, and while we could easily review all kinds of facts, features and factoids from the last month worth of writing, let's look forward to exactly what we think will happen once the talk stops and the games start.

I. Group A: With all the hype and energy around the opening match, a potent Brazilian offense and intense crowd, Defender Dejan Lovren will make a badly timed tackle that gets an overly exuberant card and alters his playing style for the next match against Cameroon...the Indomitable Lions take advantage and use the win to knock out the Blazers and march on to the second round.

The unlucky goats of Holland

II. Group B: Strong though they are, a critical error in passing between Bruno Martins Indi and Stefan De Vrij opens the door for Chile to take a tie-breaking goal in the second half for Chile and send El Rojo through to the next round.

III. Group C: A late goal by unsung midfielder Abel Aguilar, makes no difference, as Colombia suffers a tough loss to Japan. But it does keep Colombia's goal differential positive and keeps Los Cafeteros moving on ahead of the Blue Samuri

IV. Group D: Uruguay's offense sputters in the face of a hobbled Luis Suarez, but worse still is the fact that keeper Fernando Muslera, develops a terrible habit of giving up equalizers shortly after La albiceleste grabs the lead. While he stymies Costa Rica after giving up an equalizer, the offense can't cut loose and grab the lead back. Last cup's dream team crashes out in a trio of draws.

Les Blus new favorites

V. Group E: Antoinne Griezman's fantastic play on the wing for France, leaves very few moaning about the absence of Franck Ribery, particularly as he helps Karim Benzema to a pair of braces in the first two matches, en route to a group topping performance.

VI. Group F: Carlos Quieroz has a magic touch at organizing defensive mischief, with complex alternating schemes that frustrate both Eden Dzeko and John Obi Mikel in a pair of stunning victories to put Team Melli through to the next round.

VII. Group G: US Media blows it's lid when the ageless Asamoah Gyan scores again to give Ghana ANOTHER win against the US, with Fox News even snidely suggesting that this is what happens when you hire a German to do an American's job--not that they care about soccer at all (until Fox has world cup broadcasting rights). The tune swings back when the Yanks stun Portugal with Jurgen being hailed as a genius and everything ends in a muted pfft when they drop the final match to Germany.

Lacen practices how to shake a spy

VIII. Group H: Medhi Lacen puts his name at the top of the KGB hit list, when he scores a 83rd minute equalizer to deny Russia an obvious win and boost South Korea in a quiet race for runner up.

IX. Round of 16: Pushed to Penalties by Colombia, a strong Italian side comes unglued when Andrea Pirlo pushes it over the bar, in echoes of Roberto Baggio 20 years before.

X. Quarter Finals: On the verge of a stunning upset, Belgium comes undone as the workload of Thibaut Courtois is unravelled in 5 minutes of sterling futbol from Lionel Messi...an 89th minute bit of impossible creation and a gut punching through ball to Gonzalo Higuin in stoppage time ends the Red Devils run.

Ending where we thought...
But what a ride

XI. Final Four: Aching and hobbled after a strong challenge in the semi from Benedikt Howdes, Neymar pulls a Ronaldo-esque flu story line into the finals. Like Ronaldo he isn't much help, but a stunning feed from Paulinho to Fred sets up the Cup winner over Spain.

There's our overly specific, outrageous and easily foiled predictions...but hey, it's fun to think about how it will all play out--especially when it doesn't.

Meet the Team: Chile

Nickname: Chile goes by "El Rojo" or "The Red One"--which isn't nearly as intimidating as Spain's "La Furia Roja" (The red fury), but before you mock, remember, Cincinatti has the same name for their baseball team.

Star: Since South America boasts five great teams at this cup, and Chile is only the fourth best of those, it's not surprising that few have noted the promise of Arturo Vidal. With five goals to his name in qualifying a parcel of created chances, he's been invaluable in making Chile a genuine darkhorse in the tournament.

Gary Medel is posing with a
 peace sign ironically

Hip-Star: Roll up your flannel sleeves in homage to the hard working, high flying, pitbull defender Gary Medel. Far from the spotlights of Juventus and Barcelona, Medel has plied his trade anywhere that will have him, working his way from Chile, to Brazil, to Spain and all the way to Cardiff City, where he made a strong showing even in a weak season for the Welsh side. Plus...look at his instagram...the man's obviously three clicks from posting his top 10 jelly crullers you've never heard of.

X-Factor: Chile's got one phenomenal advantage in their group stage: Spain and Holland Play First. Since they're an obvious favorite against poor old Australia, that match will go a long way to determining their strategy and plan for the rest of the cup. If Spain wins, they shoot for a draw in the second match and hit Holland hard in the last match. If Holland wins, they try to push the advantage against Spain and split the difference with Holland. If the Europeans draw, they just focus on getting draws themselves and hope goal difference puts them top.

Coach: Jorge Sampaoli has made a huge difference for the national side. Bringing the calming influence he brought to club side Universidad de Chile to the world stage. Helping the little Chilean side win the Copa Sudamerica was a great set up for the rush to qualify and the race for the title

History: After a early 21st Century lull, Chile's back in the upset oriented mindset that saw them hit the round of 16 both in France '98 and South Africa '10. They came second to Spain in that group and know how to match up with their fellow reds when need be.


Food: How about a food as versatile as the Chilean team itself? The sopapilla can be sweet or savory, plain, or pumpkin, served with ice cream/chocolate/icing or chili sauce/mustard

Fool: Four consecutive free and fair elections? Come on Chile We need someone to mock! Oh, wait, I know...Lucía Pinochet daughter of the repressive dictator, councilwoman for a local government, she'll do nicely (I'm sure she had a lovely relationship with her dad, but we need a punk, and given Pinochet's fondness for medals everywhere, she'll do nicely)

Best Case: With plenty of talent and fewer expectations, Chile surprises both Holland and Spain to go first in the group, thereby avoiding their eternal bugaboo Brazil in the second round and taking their run to a shocking semi-final spot--their first since hosting in 1962.

Worst Case: Good as they are, Chile may be a little overwhelmed by their group. Overlooking Australia would be a mistake--and one they might pay for by finishing last.

My prediction: La Rojo's sneaky threat to the established order of Group B is 100% serious. If they can spring a shock on the Dutch in the last match (and I think they can) they should get the second round, it's a shame that they always seem to draw Brazil in that first knock-out stage. 2nd Round (2nd in Group--6 points)

Added Bonus: Chiles' contribution to our World Cup of Hip-Hop? Guerillero Okulto's "FARO Tláhauc"--on MC name alone he's a winner.

In it, But Win It? #6: The Three Friendly Long Shots

I was going to call this post "The Three Amigos..." then I remembered the various quasi-racist offerings of that same name and thought, "meh...this is better".

Anyway, we're nearing the end of qualification, but for those happy few Central/South American teams who sealed the deal early the nerve-wracking part is over...for now. While Mexico and Uruguay fret and fuss over match-ups and terrible twists of fate that have landed them in the play-in rounds, these three squads are set to go...though whether it means anything or not is another matter entirely.

So here's a quick spin and ridiculously presumptuous analysis of three more qualifiers for next year's world cup.



Chile
Contender Credentials: The South American Roja will be making their second straight trip to the Mondiale in 2014 with a squad full of familiar faces that play among the top leagues in the world. In particular the front of Alexis Sanchez, Humberto Sourez and Jean Beausajour is back for blood.

Pretender Problems: Chile's biggest flaw is that, while many of their players are entering their prime, they don't have the unit cohesion that many of their rivals will. Spread throughout Europe and South America, they don't get to play together, save for international affairs. Last fall they dropped four straight and only qualified thanks to 5 wins in 6 matches to round out the campaign.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Their recent form is a sign of piecing everything together and--as the darkest of dark horses--they race to a surprising semi-final.
Pits of Despair Scenario: A rough European season depletes their experienced fronts and they're left as the butt of jokes in South America for the next four years.
Prediction: Chile are the Oakland A's of South American soccer, too often overlooked, but never a champion. Round of 16

Ecuador
Contender Credentials: Better known as "El-Tri-That-Actually-Already-Qualified", Ecuador have long been feared in South America, but little respected elsewhere in the World. Despite a disappointing campaign in 2010, they were back in fine form--looking comfortable throughout their campaign and have one of the most consistent leaders in South American Futbol: 2006 rising star/current-day captain Antonio Valencia of Man United
Pretender Problems: Mexico's non-union, South-American equivalent has problems similar to their northernly brethren. Their manager Reinaldo Ruena gets middling results, they seem utterly incapable of winning away from home and they had the straight up rotten luck to lose the fearsome striker Christian Benitez to a heart attack.
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: My Ecuadorian student is right about an international conspiracy to stop Ecuador from showing up higher profile Argentina/Brazil/Uruguay, and a plucky squad of upstarts uncover the secret assassination plans while leading an inspirational underdog charge to the championship.
Pits of Despair Scenario: They can't get off the ground away from Quito. Literally. The pressure of playing so close to the ocean makes their ears pop and they lie in the fetal position for three weeks straight.
Prediction: There's a lot of enthusiasm/team-of-destiny fervor around Ecuador, but not enough talent to see them through. Third in their group


Honduras
Contender Credentials: La Bicolor is slowly rising in the ranks of continental powers. This is their second straight cup appearance, matching Costa Rica for the longest streak by any CONCACAF Team not named "Mexico" or "the United States of America". They're even rising up in global estimation with Wigan Athletic building a pipeline of sorts through Midfielder Roger Espinoza and Defender Juan Carlos Garcia
Pretender Problems: Okay...honestly? that record reflects a lot more of CONCACAF's weakness rather than Honduras' strength. Even qualification was something of a fortuitous break with Mexico playing so poorly that they backed in via a couple of draws against Panama and Jamaica. (Plus Garcia & Espinoza have a combined 12 Premier league caps)
Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: They cement their rising star status with a shocking 2nd place finish and tightly contested Round of 16 match.
Pits of Despair Scenario: They forget to pack their shin guards and have to cover themselves in Spongebob Bandaids once the bigger kids start picking on them.
Prediction: Sorry Honduras, nothing doing...4th Place in their group

Waning Seconds: Europe's a Mess

Sweet god, the final seconds of Panama and Mexico left me stunned.

Just as I resigned myself to a underwhelming Mexico settling into matches against New Zealand by default, Luis Tejeda pushed himself through a sloppy Mexican defense to score and put Panama and Honduras into fits of delight.

Four minutes later, Raul Jiminez, in his third minute of play, scored a scinitillating bicycle kick to retake the lead, revive El Tri's hopes and make any fan of futbol stand up and shout (even if you take a certain bizarre appreciation of Mexico's struggles). Suddenly you can see how scrappy, frantic and down right desperate the North American Goliath had become. Blood is drawn, the players wrassle up and down the pitch in frenzied efforts for Panama to get one more equalizer that never materizalized.

It's that kind of action that makes world cup qualifying exciting, that makes me want to watch well past 10 PM when I don't know or have a vested interest in either team. While I'll turn away from playoff baseball to watch it. That's just how fun it is.

And then I look at Tuesday's action and I think...please, let there be even one match with 5 minutes as good as the final 5 of Mexico/Panama.

Whether we get it or not, we got it Friday night, and Tuesday, a number of teams are going to get their own moments of glory. Here's how it sets up for the last day of group stage qualifiers.

CONCACAF/CONMEBOL

A brief update on the teams I wrote about last Thursday. Only Venezuela and Jamaica have been eliminated, and here's how it works out for those left.

IF Honduras beats or draws with Jamaica: They go to the World Cup

IF Honduras loses to Jamaica and Mexico beats Costa Rica (plus goal differential): Mexico goes to the World Cup, Honduras plays New Zealand in the playoffs

IF Honduras doesn't lose and Mexico wins/draws in Costa Rica: Honduras goes on, Mexico goes to the playoffs.

IF Mexico loses in Costa Rica and Panama beats the USA: Honduras goes in, Panama faces New Zealand, Mexico is out.

If Uruguay loses or draws to Argentina: Ecuador and Chile are in, Uruguay faces Jordan in the playoffs

If Uruguay beats Argentina, Chile or Ecuador lose their match and there's a swing in goal differential: Uruguay and the winner of Chile/Ecuador go to Brazil, the loser of Chile/Ecuador faces Jordan in the Playoffs.

UEFA

And  now...for the mess that is Europe...hey, look it's one of two phrases that appear both on my blog and in World Bank board rooms! (The other, of course, is 'Robert Mugabe's a tool')

Alive for an Automatic Berth

There are only four spots left, and mercifully it's easy enough to follow. 

Azerbaijan can't handle that...

In Group F Russia just needs a point in Azerbaijan to push themselves past Portugal. They've handled lesser squads on the road as easily as an oligarch handles obscene sums of cash.

In Group I Spain needs a point against Georgia to see off France. Georgia could have all of their nation, all of the state of Georgia and all of the intergalactic six-footed, speed-demons of Georgorious 7 and still be underdogs against Spain.

Group G gets a little more complicated. Bosnia/Herzegovina and Greece are dead even on points, with B/H at a staggering +23 goal differential and Greece at just +6. So Bosnia holds the tie breaker as they go to Lithuania and Greece hosts Lichtenstein. Greece needs a better result than B/H (a win rather than a draw, a draw rather than a loss), while the Golden Lilies can make it in with any equivalent result, so they might as well get a win to play it safe.

Hardest to figure out is Group H, England has the lead, but being England it's not that safe. They're only a point up on The Ukraine who is going to face San Marino. Yes, that San Marino. The San Marino that has mustered one goal in nine matches. The San Marino that wins about as often as someone's finger actually lands on San Marino when they spin a globe. Meanwhile, England faces Poland at home, a home match is nice, but they only drew with them before, with Ukraine guaranteed to beat San Marino, the three lions need a win.

Alive for a Playoff Spot

There are eight playoff spots up for grabs (which will eventually turn into four honest-to-goodness world cup berths).

However qualifying for one is tricky business. You don't just have to finish second, you have to finish as one of the eight best second place teams by having a good record against the top five teams in their group (because it would be unfair to count their matches against last place. Especially since Group I only has five teams. 

So to judge these odds, we need to use some inferential thinking.

We know that Sweden is in, and if we assume that Spain, Bosnia, and Ukraine do what they need to do (while England fails, like they usually do) then we can also book spots for France, Greece and England too [Technically Montenegro could qualify if they beat Moldova and San Marino beats Ukraine...and technically the US Congress is "working" right now]. That leaves us with 4 spots and 5 groups that will try to supply them.

Here's where things get tricky.

In order to qualify you need to have more points against the other top 4 teams in your group than at least one other 2nd place finisher. Lots of teams and groups could end up in that situation, but right now it seems most likely to land on Group B, where Bulgaria has just 7 points and beloved underdog Armenia has 9 points (after you take away their wins over Malta). Even if Bulgaria wins they end up with 10 points, Armenia could get as high as 12 if they pull off a miraculous win IN Italy (11 if they pull of a slightly less miraculous draw), but finishing 3rd or 4th is more likely. Denmark has the most likely route with a final game against Malta but even that should set them up with just 10 points...so let's call that our minimum number of points required.

Even if they can't pass Russia, Portugal should be already taken care of. Their worst case scenario is a Russia win, a loss to Luxembourg and a Northern Irish win. Even that would give them 12 points and keep them in front of Group B's runner up so again, they're safe.

Ditto Croatia, who's assured of 2nd place behind Belgium and should have 11 points regardless of whether Macedonia, Scotland or Wales finishes bottom of their table. (Ideally Scotland finishing bottom would help out the Croatians the most...to which I imagine most Scots would say, "HELL NO!")

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Iceland should be good to go if they beat Norway or just do better than Slovenia. But things aren't as rosy for the NZS. A win for Slovenia should seal their spot, but if they win 2nd by drawing in Switzerland and Iceland loses it may be all for naught since most of Slovenia's points come from whaling on Cyprus and they could end up with just 10 points, and be stuck arguing goal differential against the Danes or Bulgarians.

The most likely group (other than B) to wind up at the bottom of the runner's up table is Group D with it's three way battle for survival. With a win against a resilient Estonia, Romania should be 2nd place and safely into the playoffs. A loss for Romania and a win for Hungary over hapless Moldova (pretty likely) should give them second place, 11 points and safe passage into the playoffs Romania could be even better positioned A victory for Romania should have them dancing. Turkey's got the toughest route ahead, as a win is unlikely v.s. Holland so they'd need Estonia and Moldova to win in order to finish second. Of course, doing that puts them in the same position as the Slovenians, bickering over goal differential.

Most likely we'll end up with Russia, The Ukraine, Spain and Bosnia/Herzegovina going to Brazil, and Sweden, Greece, France, England, Porugal, Croatia, Iceland and Romania with Denmark being out of the money.

Waning Seconds: October I--'Mericas!

We're nearing the end of the road to qualification, ten are in, fifty still have a shot, but only twenty-two spots remain. We'll keep narrowing the field of contestants this weekend starting with matches on Friday and continuing on to Tuesday when all that will be left are guaranteed participants and terribly nervous, play-off bound teams.

Europe is a mess [hey, look sport imitating life!], so we'll look at the ramifications of the final qualifiers closer to next Tuesday, but things are much clearer with North and South America. But since this is a blog from a Montanan perspective we all know there's really only one America that matters...OUR AMERICA!

So here are the qualification routes for the teams still alive, with as much rootin'-tootin' American-ized analyses as I can muster.

CONCACAF

We already have a spot in the World Cup, so the remaining two spots (one in the cup one in the playoff versus New Zealand) doesn't really matter enough to talk about.

...

Oh, okay I'll talk about it.

Jamaica has the longest shot at qualification, probably because they're too busy sipping delicious coconut drinks in hammocks rather than pulling themselves up by their bootstraps. Technically they could qualify if they beat both the US and Honduras while Mexico and Panama draw their first match and then lose their second matches. That's about as unlikely as a Sandals' beach vacation not being a colossal money suck.

Y tu Mickey? Wait...that was foriegn...
STOP IT YOU DUMB RAT!!

Mexico is finally getting their comeuppance for that border crossin', job theievin', consistently-contributing-to-our-growing-Gross-Domestic-Product-while-we-eschew-all-manual-labor-positions-and-humbly-accept-our-semi-racist-commentary-on-their-worth-as-human-beingin'. Okay, satire aside, a cup without Mexico isn't a good cup (and it might just hit our economy, not to mention Mexico's, pretty hard). So El Tri need to beat Panama in Azteca (a likely proposition) and then top Costa Rica (who should be resting their best players). A draw or loss in either makes things tough...in both it ends their hopes.

Panama perhaps the most successful team in Central America of late, Panama is also the home to a KICKASS CANAL!! ATTABOY TR!! WOOO!!! Oh yeah...Panama has the hardest road ahead of themselves. Needing a result in Mexico City and some points against the US. Difficult, but possibly duable.

Honduras is in the lead....for third place...SUCKERS!!...USA, USA! Four points will be enough to see them on to Brazil and since they get to face bottom feeding Jamaica and Costa Rica (who will probably be resting their best players), they should be heading for at least the intercontinental playoff.

CONMEBOL

There are four spots left (three for the cup and one for the playoff), two of them have already been claimed, but three others will fight for the remaining two.

Venezuela is experiencing what all misguided nations who give in to the siren song of socialism experience: a bloated bureaucracy, mildly-successful sports programs, and wide reaching social programs that don't shut down over petty partisan politics...SUCKERS! With only one match left, and a big goal deficit they need to crush Paraguay at home and hope that Uruguay or Ecuador (more likely Uruguay) flame out twice in a row.

To be fair...Luis Suarez might be able to handle this.

Ecuador and Uruguay are fighting to avoid the play-in game against Jordan and get into the World Cup directly. They face each other on Friday, in Quito, which means hard cheese Diego Forlan. While an Uruguay win would pressure Ecuador to get a win in Chile, an Ecuador win will pretty well guarantee Uruguay needs a miracle against Argentina...both teams will be playing to win. So you can pretty well count on it being a hard fight...not as hard a fight as Glacier Versus Sentinel in Kalispell this Friday Night. But, you know...a hard-ish fight.

Finally there's Columbia and Chile responsible for two of every American's favorite foods: Coffee and Chili. What's that? That was a gross misunderstanding of both geography and spelling? I'm sorry...I can't hear you over the sound of AMERICA BEING AWESOME!! [Guitar solo!!]. Anyway, Columbia has been phenomenal in qualifying and appears to be on the verge of not only going to Brazil but getting one of the 8 top spots in the seeding. Meanwhile, Chile has shown consistent improvement since their round of 16 showing in 2010 and can seal qualification with a win in either match.

Since their closest competitors (Ecuador and Uruguay) face each other in a frantic scrabble for points, the leaders of the pack may be tempted to lay back for a comfortable draw in Barranquilla on Friday, knowing that Columbia only has Paraguay left and Chile can seal the deal at home versus Ecuador.

But of course, whoever wins, whoever loses, whoever draws [shudder runs through American sports fans] we can all agree on one thing.

AMERICA RULES!!

(This concludes the satirical jingoism in this blog for--hopefully--ever.)

Random Thoughts on a Day of Random Friendlies

Turn on the tv and discover that, hey! The US is playing a friendly in Bosnia! What better time than this to write down a bunch of random thoughts about Soccer!! I can't promise they'll be brilliant or necessarily accurate...but they will be random.

*Every time I microwave a meal and walk away from a sporting event the opponent scores. These pork tacos better be tasty to make up for Bosnia's lead.

*They are.

*I never get fired up about Balkan state soccer...don't know why, maybe the consonants are intimidating.

*Another goal gets us to half-time...I'm guessing there's a Archduke Ferdinand joke on our horizon

*Thanks for proving me right Bob Ley.

*I'll always picture Alexei Lalas with a beehive on his chin.

*Is Mexico becoming the Guns 'n' Roses of North American Soccer? Filling arenas based totally on name recognition rather than any kind of talent?

*I feel like I should say something about Germany Paraguay, but all that comes to mind is: Nyah, nyah, nyah, nyah, nyah.

*I'd pay a large amount of money for an audio recording of Mario Balotelli and Pope Francis.

*Wonder if Pope Francis is mocking the cardinals because Argentina's winning.

*Seriously, we don't get to see Scotland's goal? STOP HIBERNIAN OPPRESSION!!

*Second half starts in the Snoozefest in Sarejevo! (Is what I would say if Don King promoted soccer matches)

*Isn't it sweet that Jozy Altidore shares the love with Eddie Johnson...well...sweet and dangerous for reproductive health.

*Dang, Altidore took Lalas' snark to heart, maybe we shall doubt him a little more...

*Oh c'mon Bosnia, you're a hardened, grizzly, Balkan nation...you don't need to flop about like a bankrupt Mediterranean nation.

*$#!T Altidore's an f'ing beast!! (These are the things that are said now, because Soccer's not mainstream)

*HOLY MOTHER!! A hat-trick?!? A hat-trick?!?! I feel increasingly like we need to genuflect to this man...oh wait...we should try the Lalas approach. "A hat trick and assist has to be expected for anyone who calls themselves a real man..."

*Maybe Bosnia's only mostly dead...after all, they are 13th in the world...unlucky 13th...

*Alright, I admit that this might be a gross overreaction to just one match. But if we can beat Bosnia IN Bosnia, we can beat Bosnia (and others) in Brazil...this would be heightened expectations.

*Suarez and Forlan have a bromace that makes Altidore and Johnson look like cruel rivals

*My high hopes for Japan are being dashed with each match (but my love of Keisuke Honda isn't.

*Chile toyed with Iraq in the box like an 8 year old plays with Tonka trucks

There you have it, I promised random thoughts and I delivered.

Oh...that's why 11.11.11. matters!

So, admittedly, I'm a little behind in posts (and if you think this blog's bad, you should see my other ones), but I thought I ought to post before tomorrow in advance of a major day in World Cup qualifying.

Apparently the powers that be in FIFA decided they ought to schedule matches on every continent on this most auspicious of palindromy days.  So, there's a whole mess of soccer going on tomorrow: here now, the matches we're most excited to see on each continent:

South America:
Chile v.s. Uruguay; It's more than just the match up of two countries whose names sound like English language words--it's the rising power of South America (complete with greasy haired stars in the making), versus one of the continents perennial dark horses. So, senors, bring it on.


North America:
Antigua & Barbuda v.s. Haiti; So Haiti--despite all the financial, bureaucratic, and--you know--earthquake-y related things, was actually favored to win their group. Then along came underdogs Antigua & Barbuda...so if you think about it: we're guaranteed to see one adorable underdog vault into the next round...and see another underdog suffer humiliating defeat and broken dreams.

Asia:
Saudi Arabia v.s. Thailand; While I'm biased in favor of the Elephants and have made more than my share of jokes at the expense of the turmoil in Saudi Arabia, the match will be crucial to finding the second-place team in the group. Australia's guaranteed the top spot (barring some kind of freak team-wide spontaneous combustion), so this one will matter more than a little.


Africa:
Somalia v.s. Ethiopia; Here's the real barnburner, and while it's not the highest profile match and doesn't have any of the big name continental stars; as a Montanan who currently lives in Minnesota (with its high population of Ethiopians and Somalis) we can think of several people who really care how it turns out.

So whether you prefer rising powers, underdogs, high-stakes contests, or serious rivals there's something for you tomorrow. And if you prefer being gainfully employed and just looking up the scores during your coffee/tea break...you can do that too.

Enjoy the games!