Let's take a quick glimpse at exactly what must be done for teams to qualify, or, in the case of others not heading in to the last round of matches. MORNING-- Germany V.s. USA
The Germans and the Yanks are in prime position to qualify, if they just draw with each other they both move on. The conspiracy theorists were in heated supposition within three minutes of Portugal's equalizer, and until the match actually kicks off they'll stay just that tightly wound. It would like take a bit of German support to keep it close as the US will be coming in from the sweltering heat of Manaus on just three days rest after a gutting tie. But if they can just muster a point, they avoid the wait-and-see-hope-for-goal-differential game. Ghana V.s Portugal
Both the Black Stars and the Portugese need some help from the other match. A slaughter of either side is the only thing to save Portugal's lousy goal differential (though their own victory would be a big help)..the truth is that these evenly matched sides may well play to a draw themselves, but that will be no help at all.
AFTERNOON-- South Korea V.s. Belgium
The Taeguk Warriors have to get a win, and have not looked capable of it. But with Belgium on to the next round, they may be able to spring a surprising result and use that to their advantage. Even if Belgium doesn't rest up for the next round, they've scuffled against both the gritty Algerians and the haphazard Russians, so a win is not out of the question.
Russia V.s. Algeria
Russia HAS to get a win against Algeria, and at the start of the Cup I had predicted that Algeria would knock them out for good with a draw. I didn't think that a draw would be all Les Fennecs needed for a second place finish, but low and behold, that's the case. Whether Fabio Capello rediscovers his master touch, or the Algerians sort out another shock result, it's all up for grabs in the final match of the first round.
We're through the second set of matches, and it's time again for a few key observations, and some revised predictions. ON: Jurgen Klinsman "Miracle Worker"--Every move, every sub, every decision he seemed to make was golden. He can't clear the balls (Geoff Cameron) and he can't cut down the lanes on Ronaldo (Michael Bradley) but he has done a fantastic job strategizing the team in a position to win. OFF: My Mother's Temper--I love my mom, but she has very little patience for passive, defensive, sock it in the back futbol. To her it's the "prevent defense" which prevents you from winning. That's what she blames the loss on, and it's easy to agree (Chris Kluwe went so far as to make that same joke on Twitter). You may know a lot about soccer Jurgen...but, this is America and in America there is one golden rule in soccer coaching: don't irk the moms.
ON: Eden Hazard--Even without scoring the goal himself, Hazard was instrumental in creating and crafting everything positive that came out of the Red Devils side today. The darkhorses haven't been as dominant as some might have predicted, but they're moving on thanks to Hazard. OFF: Fabio Capello "Genius"--I have seen a fair number of Fabio Capello matches, and read even more that rave about his strategy...I have yet to see the two match up. Russia seems to move forward without any clear central idea and defend out of desperation rather than organization. ON: Islam Slimani--Like Hazard for Belgium, or Messi for Argentina, Islam Slimani has been the integral part of every single converted attack and triumphant accomplishment for Les Fennecs. Of course, he plays a much lower profile part for Sporting Lisbon rather than amongst the legends of European futbol day in and day out...so Hipsters, you've found your man. OFF: Jung Sungryong--The Korean keeper had a rough day to be sure, beyond getting blitzed by the oft derided Algerian attack, any stock that he might have seen rise in holding Russia is now utterly evaporated...it'll be back to relative anonymity between the posts for a K-League side soon enough.
Finally some revised predictions: Before the cup I thought: Cameroon had a solid chance at a surprise berth. Now? Few teams are as ugly all around as the Indomitable Lions who kicked off with a pay dispute and are set to wrap up their campaign in Brazil with a dispute as to who can play the worst.
Before the cup I thought: Spain would cruise to another finals. Now? It's hard to see any team crash as hard and fast as La Furia Roja, but the absolute completeness of their debacle is absolutely astonishing. Are we sure nobody pulled an Invasion of the body snatchers on Vicente Del Bosque?
Before the cup I thought: I could make do without a tv. Now? I've made it through these individual matches without, but as the games run simulcast starting tomorrow...there's danger ahead. (Note, I will be off to a work retreat from Monday evening through Thursday morning, but I will do everything in my power to keep up on the games...I do have daily posts queued up to summarize the multiple ways teams can and can't qualify, but I'm not sure these 3 On/3 Offs will keep up).
It was a near perfect day of futbol. Thrilling matches that were extremely close throughout, open thrilling style, and the bright sunshine actually drew me out of my game watching hidy-hole and got me to socialize with other fans in the bright sun. So we'll sneak in an extra substitution, just for fun...
FIRST: ON--Nomad World Pub--I'm proud of my Montanan roots, and my Montanan-isms, and generally all things Montanan, but I'd be hard pressed to find a place like the Nomad World Pub with the live music from around the world, a vast array of domestic and imported beer, a willingness to experiment with different drinks, and a great venue to crowd around with all manner of fans. This is the kind of thing that we need to pull people in to the wonderful world of futbol. Thank you for being awesome Nomad, and thank you for supporting it Minnesota United...spread the word and bring in the people. ON: Lionel Messi...Argentine Savior--For all the gushing about Argentina's attacking options, it's really been Messi or bust, today it took one of the great strikes of the tournament to get them past Iran and book their ticket for the second round. Let's just go ahead and own it next match Argentina, put ten guys in goal and let Messi do what he does up top. OFF: Iran Jokes--It's a remarkable thing, but Iran seems to have become the darling of the World Cup, sure they don't do much attacking, and their style of defense is best described as "massive", but we love an underdog. So, getting my haircut, the barbers were intrigued by their style. Hanging out with other fans, even Argentine's were hoping to see a miracle strike groaning with each Goochenajad miss. So, come on Iran, give up your nuclear program and send one guy on loan to the MLS...we'll be your best buds...for a couple months at least.
ON--The Ayew Boys--Abedi Pele is not the Pele you've heard of, but he is the omnipresent legend of Ghanaian football. His sons, Andre and Jordan were tremendous for the Black Stars today in one of the most impressive results in the federation's history. Andre (aka Dede) nodded home the crucial equalizer that put Germany on the back foot, and Jordan's daring runs at the end of the match kept neutral fans entranced even as die hards worried about counterattacks. OFF--The Boateng Boys--The run up to the match was concerned primarily with the second civil war of Jerome and Kevin-Prince Boateng. Unfortunately that was completely anti-climactic. Niether made good touches, there was little creation or strong passing from either and the game opened up and was far more exciting when they were subbed out at half time. Heck! Kevin even gave Mesut Ozil a better hug than his brother! ON--Africa--It's been an underwhelming ten days for African sides, but today things turned around clearly and decisively, with Ghana stunning Germany and Nigeria holding off Bosnia. Vincent Enyema's gone so far as to position himself as keeper of the tournament. Whether or not they can get a team (or two...or--in an ideal circumstance--four) through to the next round remains to be seen, but they aren't nearly the pushover one would have thought OFF--The Baltics--Bosnia had a decisive moment for Edin Dzeko wiped away by a linesman's bad call, but he also missed a parcel of other opportunities en route to the debutantes getting bounced out of the cup. They're not alone, the Croatians are clinging to life in Group A, and the Serbian referee of today's Argetnina-Iran match missed an obvious foul in the box that might have us singing a far different tune about Mr. Messi (or maybe not).
America's fixation on two of the premier matches in the group stage made this a day to circle on the calendar But know that the day is past, it's worth reflecting on exactly how things panned out, both for the good and the bad. ON: Thomas Muller--The first (official hat trick) of the cup came against an unlikely rival, but the German execution did what it has always been designed to do--destroy anything that gets in its way. Even one of the top 5 teams in the world. OFF: Pepe--Stupidity, thy name is Pepe. Sure Muller's dive to the ground in supposed "eye-gouge" agony was frustrating, but harassing, intimidating and finally headbutting solves absolutely nothing If there's one consolation, it's that all the mockery of his moronic decision may push young players to never, under any circumstances imitate him. ON: Carlos Quieroz--The Portugese mastermind had a clear cut strategy, distract and frustrate the Nigerian attack at every turn, stack players in the box until there's no way through and make the most of a little mistake. Holding on to that strategy in the face of the Super Eagles early gains served Team Melli very well. And while I think they could well have grabbed a win a little more focus in building out of the midfield, a point for a team widely critiqued as the worst in the field is awfully promising. OFF: Stephen Keshi--The first African manager to take his home nation to a world cup (beating Ghana's James Appiah by 3 hours) did himself no favors by refusing to alter strategy in the face of quality defense. When attacking up the middle didn't work, he had defenders boom the ball...down the middle...and then do it again...and again...One of the ugliest performances of the cup so far, bodes ill for the next matches. ON: Tim Howard--TIMMY! was the saving grace of a spotty American back field tonight. Every time the final four ceded an inch of space, a thunderous cross or shot was rocketing into the box. Time after time, Timbo saved the day. Sure Dede Ayew equalized (courtesy of a brilliant Gyan back heel), but most other keepers at the cup would have folded long before that moment. There are questions about the American defense...but not the man between the posts. OFF: Ghana's Mojo--I've travelled to Ghana a couple times now. I take pride in speaking a local dialect, and know that my back up World Cup squad is most definitely the Black Stars. I also know that Ghana believes in a certain kind of swagger, a particular form of magic, and they use it to their advantage to never ever play intimidated in a match. It threw off the last two American squads who underestimated the rival...but it ran out today. Whether or not it comes back in time for Germany is a major question.
Tomorrow I go back to work with a day long teacher training. So Belgium/Algeria and Brazil/Mexico may not hit my radar. Sill and all, I'll be glad to catch up as soon as I can.
Nickname: It might be a little pejorative and mimic a pretty clear insult, but to heck with it...let's veer into the skid and call ourselves: The Yanks
Star: With Landon Donovan controversially off the roster and Clint Dempsey losing a lot of his cache from a year or two ago, our most recognizable star (with an endorsement or two to prove it) is Tim Howard. A solidly middle class kid from New Jersey who thrives on challenges and has overcome Tourette's syndrome to be a world class keeper.
Hip-Star: A lot of people have focused on the host of talented young players learning the ropes in defense and on the front lines. But enough about the future, let's appreciate a throw back: while he's unlikely to start, Mix Diskeruud is a perfect throw-back to American players of old. Blessed with energy, pace, gumption and a crazy hair style, he's a great example of American punk-kid playing in the old fart European game. So keep your German connections, we're rooting for the Norwegian.
X-Factor: The US has the single longest road to travel of every team at the cup, ping-ponging from southernly Sao Paolo to the Northeast, the Northwest and center of Brazil for all three matches. Jet lag is coming, one can only hope endurance is too.
Coach: Few players had as much thorough success at destroying American soccer fan hopes and dreams as Jürgen Klinsmann. I can still clearly remember his devastating second goal against the Americans in 1998 that began a slow decline to last place in the whole tournament. Now in charge of the squad, he's prized youth, athleticism and energy above experience and comfort, and has been rewarded with a 60% winning percentage.
History: Over the past 20 years, American soccer has slowly climbed from entertaining afterthought to a valued piece of our sports landscape--at least, valued by younger fans who don't succumb to fuddy-duddy reporter dismissals of the subject. Qualification isn't noteworthy, it's expected, and soon it seems we'll expect to make the second stage of every world competition. Whether or not we can catch quarterfinal lightning in a bottle as we did in Japan/Korea has yet to be seen.
Food: Like Switzerland, the US has a hodgepodge of flavors in our "cuisine", and while we're fans of all things sausage--hot dogs anyone?--it's hard to avoid the simplicity of American as Apple Pie.
Fool: No doubt about it, America has their share of stupid politicians: the ignorant, the arrogant, and the corrupt. But rather than slam the Tea Party as a whole, we'll pick on the American government's representative at the games: Vice President/National Crazy Uncle Joe Biden. All the malaprops, the profanities, the cranky old-man mannerisms, and best of all--the Onion articles awaiting every match.
Best Case: With focus and energy of Klinsmann we can get over the hump against Ghana, and stun Portugal before the mandatory loss to Germany. If you can beat Portugal, you can top Belgium, and from there you just have to hope that Argentina has an injury, but more than likely you should just appreciate the Quarterfinals.
Worst Case: Jürgen's presence is a clear reminder of 1998...and in the worst case, it's not the only one. An opening embarrassment leads to an unstoppable slide into another goalless 4th place finish.
My prediction: Pleased as I am to see the US of A firmly entrenched as a World Cup participant, and burgeoning soccer power, I'm not naive. Ghana is our boogeyman, Portugal is our patsy of the year, and Germany is...well...Germany. We're close to hanging with the big boys, but not this close. 4th Place--3 points Added Bonus: As the birthplace of hip-hop we have more than our share of likely candidates for this spot, but we'll give credit to Action Bronson for "It's Me" largely for working "Zinadine Zidane" into his rhyme.
Nickname: Though they might like to be known as "Selação", Brazil actually has that locked down. So we'll go with Os Navegadores--"The Navigators"
The world's only unphotoshoppable human
Star: The fourth and final "futbol player everybody knows" is literal golden boy Cristiano Ronaldo, who manages to combine the athletic prowess of a prize fighter/ballet dancer with the absurd good looks of Derek Zoolander/James Bond. He's easy to make fun of, because he is easy to feel jealous of.
Hip-Star: Oh, yeah...Cristiano Ronaldo...ooh, he's so talented, ooh, he's so good looking...oooh...but do you really think he's going to stop the brutally efficient German attack? The speeding Ghanaian wingers? The gritty American scrapiness? No...he's too busy winking and flexing for the cameras. That's okay as long as defensive midfielder Miguel Veloso plays his game, not that you'd notice if you only judge players on how deep their dimples are...silly sheeple.
X-Factor: One of the greatest clichés in futbol is that one man can't win the game on his own. Though Portugal has certainly challenged that philosophy lately, riding Ronaldo and a host of complementary pieces to a number 3 FIFA ranking. A more complete team got fourth place in 2006, a less effective one got to the second round in 2010...will supporting players rise up, or fade away?
Coach: For a former defensive midfielder, Paolo Bento is bedeviled by mediocre defending and giving away goals in heaps, first with Sporting Lisbon and again in qualifying (ceding 4 to North Ireland, and 3 to Israel) as they finished second behind Russia and needed all of Ronaldo's scoring acumen to send them through.
Norwegians don't do this with cod...
History: While the 70s and 80s were a fallow period for Portugal, four straight qualifications and a chunk of European glory has made them far more notable in the past decade particularly their 4th place finish in 2006.
Food: A little breakfast food never went amiss, and it's been far too long since I thought about fish so let's try Bacalhau à Brás. Taking potatoes, scrambled eggs and the ubiquitous treat of Portugal: dried Cod.
Fool: As Portugal tends to be more or less manageable and considerate of one another they don't fit most of our "fool" types. So, it's with nostrils pinched that we point the finger at Pedro Passos Coehlo for being the man in charge at the fall of the Portugese economy. Sorry Pedro.
Best Case: Cristiano Ronaldo does everything Nike and Cristian Dior and Rolex and Gillette could ever want. Single handedly netting game winners in every group match, and then knocking off every rival in the knockout stages (culminating in that other selacao) en route to Portugal's first World Championship.
Worst Case: Ronaldo tweaks something on his first warm up jog around the track and the rest of Portugal collapses around his absence. Getting pummeled into last place by Germany, the US and even Ghana and flying home in tears as Brazilians chant insults at their erstwhile oppressors.
My prediction: Fear not sponsors, super-shiny Christiano Ronaldo will play more than three games--not even a shock upset from the US will derail that dream. But they won't play more than 4, as the super-shiny upset darlings of Belgium pounce on Portugal's main weakness...overconfidence. 2nd Round Added Bonus: In my (extremely brief) survey of Hip Hop Tuga, it seems that artists rely heavily on intros, hooks and slowly set up the beats. Bear that in mind when you hear Sam the Kid's "Jungle Fever"
Nickname: The national symbol, from the flag to the football squad is The Black Star. All the optimism, hope and aspiration of repatriated Africans, none of the mail-fraud baggage.
Star: The spread of Ghanaian players around the world (not to mention Ghanaian men and women whose children still link to their homeland) gives them a wealth of options for this title. Largely speaking the title flows through the playmaking midfielders that made Ghana "the Brazil of Africa". If that's the case, this year's star ought to be Kwadwo Asamoah who stars for Juventus and the national side--serving as the cohesive glue for the more aged (Michael Essien) and more mercurial (Kevin-Prince Boateng)
Hip-Star: Forget the fixation on Ghanaians born and raised in "traditional" soccer powers. Norweigean born and bred Adam Larsen Kwarasey has even more experience with European standards playing for Strømsgodset, and actually knows where to get the real lutefisk rather than that bland touristy stuff. A good thing too as he needs a strong stomach to face the scoring prowess of Germany, Portugal and the USA.
Worst. Thing. Ever.
X-Factor: If there's one thing to make Ghanaian players and fans go all wobbly it's the ominous threat of penalty kicks. Ever since the Uruguayan equivalent of the "hand of god" by Luis Suarez" Ghana has seem to see their dreams undone by the devilish PK. Asamoah Gyan shanked the shot at the semi's in 2010; this past February, it happened again in a shoot of the finals against Libya at the African Cup of Nations. Mercifully there are no shootouts in the first round, but anytime the ref points to the spot--Ghanaian hearts will go up to their throats
Coach: After relying on a pair of Eastern Europeans to lead them to glory for the previous 8 years, the GFA turned to a local, James Kwesi Appiah to run the show in the run-up to 2014. A move that was hailed far and wide as the next step to African footballing independence paid off as Appiah will be the first African born coach to roam the sideline of a World Cup. He's got a great relationship with his players but far less experience than any of his Group G rivals.
History: While Ghana trails only Egypt in continental titles, success on the World's biggest stage was harder to come by. Despite some legendary squads, they only debuted in 2006, but rapidly rose to prominence, making the second round that year and the quarterfinals in 2010 (whence began the curse of Suarez--see "X-Factor above)
Silver Foxes on the Prowl
Food: It may be a little too hot this summer to enjoy a well seasoned Nkatekwan (peanut soup), but as long as we're outside grilling a pile of sausages I'm going to have some kƆkƆ a y'ato (charcoal roasted sweet plantains)
Fool: I'm a sucker for mocking dictators, the scandal ridden and those who just don't know when to quit. And for that I thank god for Jerry Rawlings, the ex-Air Force commander, ex-coup leader (twice), ex-president (twice) who is Ghana's answer to Bill Clinton only with snarkier comments on current governments and less libido. Of course, he's still a lionized leader in West Africa (and with reason), but his potshots at anyone else who runs the country have to be taken with a coup-sized grain of salt.
Best Case: Ghana goes one better. Ever the optimistic squad, they can top the US with ease and with a result against Portugal stand a great chance of moving on. From there a weak Group H should pose little threat and a stunner against Argentina would be sweet justice for four years ago. A semi-final spot at last, that's the dream.
Worst Case: The aging lions of the golden generation look toothless, just like the babes-in-arms known as the Ayew brothers. Three offensively potent teams exploit an inexperienced defense, and captain/striker Asamoah Gyan misses penalties in every single match.
My prediction: I'm a sucker for Ghana, and in my "In It But Win It" profile, I predicted their run to a semi-final. Once the draw came, I couldn't do it anymore. I think they still own the US, still struggle with Germany and as much as I want them to best Portugal, I just can't see it happening. Please, oh please, let me be wrong. 3rd Place--3 points. Added Bonus: Fun fact--teaching in a Ghanaian English class there was an adjective worksheet on sounds including this sentence: "The hip-hop concert was too _____". Teachers expected "loud", every sheet I saw said "fun". One of the biggest reasons behind that might be Sarkodie and his song: "Illuminati"--all the swagger of US hip-hop, but the language of the nation
Nickname: Nationalelf (national eleven) to their countrymen Die Mannschaft (the team)to the rest of the world. The Germans are all business, there's a shock.
Nein, nein, nein!
Star: The Germans are stacked in the midfield, where studs like Lukas Podolski, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Mesut Özil, Thomas Müller, Sami Khedira, and even rising stars André Schürrle, and Mario Götze. Rather than choosing between them all, I'll go the lame route and point out the keeper who ended Iker Casillas' reign as World Keeper of the year: Manuel Neuer who grabbed attention in 2010 and has held on to it ever since.
Hip-Star: With Germany taking only one proven striker (Miroslav Klose) to the cup, distribution and defense have never been more valuable. So we suggest you show off your arcane knowledge of German football by highlighting Mats Hummels, who paces things out of a Left Back position, and will have to hustle back in defense to keep up with speedy attacks from Portugal and Ghana (without the overexposed brother v. brother plotline of the Boateng brothers).
Great coach...better scarf model
X-Factor: The last four years have seen an unprecedented rise in stature for the Bundesliga going from European also ran (behind the Premiership, La Liga and Serie A) to an international force. Munich, Dortmund, Schalke, Leverkusen, every thing's going German of late, the more national team members prep against the world's best on a week in-week out basis, the better prepared they are to face international opponents (as Spain found after La Liga's rise in 2008).
Coach: An oddity in International futbol, Joachim Löw has managed the German national squad since July 13th 2006--making this the 8th year of his reign atop German football. Over that time he's 70-18-15, for a 68% winning percentage. That kind of methodical efficiency seems appropriate for Germany.
History: Since for the 1950 World Cup (when they were banned), Germany has been to 16 straight World Cups, winning 3 times and never finishing worse than 7th. In the last 12 years they've made three straight trips to the Semis and surely expect the same again, no matter how tricky their group draw may be.
What else do you need?
Food: Cased meats + alcohol = fine german dining. Bratwurst, beer, and I'm done.
Fool: Angela Merkel seems to be keeping Europe afloat through sheer force of will at some points (no matter how absurdly fond of Vladmir Putin former chancellors seem to be), so we won't dare dispute her awesomeness...but if we hear one peep out of ultra-nationalist Udo Pastörs calling Mesut Özil or any foreign born player a "semen cannon"...we may have to reinvade.
Best Case: It all unfolds like clockwork--dominance against a difficult group, barely breaking a sweat against whomever Groups H, E and F throw up in the knock outs. And then using focused precision to rattle a Brazilian team worn out by partying before reclaiming their rightful trophy atop Europe from Spain.
Worst Case: A stunner at the hands of some Group G upstart (maybe Portugal in the first match?) unsettles them and forces them to settle for runner's up, despite topping Belgium they can't figure out Argentina and crash out in a humiliating quarterfinal spot that sends confidence in Merkel plummeting and the Euro into total collapse.
My prediction:Die Mannschaft are as methodical and machine like as ever, even in the intimidating Group G. While they'll be the best of a good group, they'll be even better in the knock out stages, where a lighter load of rivals gives them a clear path to the Semifinals before butting heads with Brazil, and--yet again--taking 3rd place (this time from Argentina)
Added Bonus: Just to spite Udo, and to encourage more diversity on the German squad we offer a voice from the Turko-German Hip Hop scene: Eko Fresh with "Der Gerät"
