Shooting From the Hip: AFC Second Round

You don't get far in this world playing it cautiously. It's as much a part of the Montana spirit as speed-limit free highways and sales-tax-free beef jerky.

So when it comes to predictions, I'll shoot from the hip. Take a chance when I'm not exactly sure. Be blunt and direct and optimistic when I can be.

The second round of Asian qualifying was announced on Tuesday, and while it won't start for another month and won't end for another year, I figured it was best to make predictions within 48 hours.

The nearly-year long second round, 8 groups of 5 will play home and away. The winners, and the top four runners up, will move on to the final round. (That's where your odds as one team in 2 groups of 6 get a heck of a lot better.)

So who will reach those lofty heights?

Group A: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, Timor-Leste, Malaysia
Winner: The Saudis have the higher profile and the richer pedigree, but the United Arab Emirates has had the better run of form lately. With probably the softest competition around them, I'd guess Zayed's Sons have the best chance.

Dark Horse: Set aside the geopolitical turmoil and the fact that their leaders seem hell bent on getting Israel kicked out of FIFA, but Palestine likely offers the best chance at an upset. A squad built on non-local players will never coalesce perfectly, but their familiarity with top flight squads (as seen in a trip to the the AFC Cup in January) will serve them well.
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Group B: Australia, Jordan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Bangladesh
Winner: This isn't quite a tap-in for The Socceroos but it's close. One of the dominant sides in Asia will have no trouble handling the rivals, the only real match to watch will be against Jordan.

A Socceroo tap in

Dark Horse: Speaking of Jordan, "The Chivalrous" have a strong case to make as one of the top sides in West Asia. They've had great fortune against the lesser sides of Asia (which definitely includes the Bangladeshis, Tajiks and Kyrgyzseseses--okay the Kyrgyz no offense meant), and by cutting their teeth in an endless series of friendlies against higher profile foes they'll keep that strength, take their lumps against Australia and move along.
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Group C: China, Qatar, Maldives, Bhutan, Hong Kong
Winner: Loathe as I am to give them any credit, Qatar has put just about everything they have into developing a team that will match their stadia by 2022. And in case you're wondering, yes that does include pressuring foreigners into service (including Frenchman Dame Traore, Ghanaian Mohammad Muntari and Brazilian Luiz Junior). A strong 2014 was undercut by a truly underwhelming performance in the Asian Cup, but I think they'll be under pressure to get close this cycle--so they don't become the first team since Italy in 1934--the second cup ever--to host a world cup without having played in one before.

Dark Horse: I'm absolutely drinking Bhutan's Kool-Aid, but I don't care. The low profile, lack of film, high altitude home matches and general "do you believe in miracles vibe" makes the land of the Thunder Dragon an easy squad to root for. In the end they'd need to take points at home against both China and Qatar and sweep all matches against Maldives and Hong Kong, but hey, crazier things have happened.
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Group D: Iran, Oman, India, Turkmenistan, Guam
Winner: With or without the recently departed Carlos Quieroz, Iran's got too much talent to miss out in this group. A debacle during a penalty shoot out at the Asian Cup this January shouldn't distract from the fact that they were easy front runners at the tournament and should be for this one as well. If they put their minds to it, I'm sure that young striking talents like Sardar Azmoun and Karim Ansarfarid could find some salient suggestions for the nuclear deal too.

Go Go Guam!

Dark Horse: Much as I love plumping for India (where I lived and worked for a few years), the baffling dark horse to root for is Guam. The rare American protectorate that actually IS an underdog, Guam garnered big headlines when they drew at higher profile Singapore. A squad filled with American college kids and MLS developmental talents might not do much against even average Asian sides like a dangerous Omani crew. But they are the ultimate dark horse.
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Group E: Japan, Syria, Afghanistan, Singapore, Cambodia
Winner: It will take a lot for any of these teams to meaningfully challenge Japan. The Blue Samurai got an excellent draw despite a lackluster World Cup and Asian Cup. Still, they're at the top of the Asian standings and even if they don't consistently bring back European based players they should be able to handle these qualification rivals.

Dark Horse: If one of the other four sides can put together a consistent run against the other three they could pull a surprise especially with other second-tier teams (and Japan) playing so inconsistently. At a guess, I'd put money on Singapore which boasts a young squad with some internationally based players and more who work together at Lions XII bringing cohesion and confidence into the mix (not to mention avoiding the ...but when you lose to Guam...my whole confidence is undermined.
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Group F: Iraq, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Chinese Taipei
Winner: Credit where it's due, Iraq consistently makes the best of an unusual and often trying situation. They've played the top teams in Asia very closely and make a habit of taking lower-ranked rivals seriously. A few foreign based players (including the Columbus Crew's Justin Meram) show continued promise and growth.

From Left to Right: Chanathip Songkrasin and Kroekrit Thawikan

Dark Horse: The biggest challenge for Iraq will be the frequent long-distance hauls to South East Asia. So the question for a dark horse will be any team who can boast a difficult home environment (to steal a win against the favorites) and real sway over regional rivals. By that standard Thailand is your most likely nominee (just winning the South East Asia Suzuki Cup, boasting a young and growing squad, consistent at home), but that's not anything I'd wager heavily on.
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Group G: Korea Republic, Kuwait, Lebanon, Myanmar, Laos
Winner: Korea is still one of the preeminent powers in Asian football, perpetual status as bridesmaid's not withstanding. Their growing influence in Europe doesn't hurt matters, world cup qualification is now expected and the rivals here won't slow that down.

Dark Horse: Right now the hottest team for fans of Asian underdogs is Bhutan, but Lebanon was pulling the Cinderella story during the 2014 cycle. They're back again against two teams they beat on the road during the last set of qualifiers, higher regarded Kuwait and Korea. Though it ended with whimper in the final round of qualifying, the Cedars stood tall, and while Kuwait's a more likely runner-up/qualifier. Lebanon is still where my loyalty lies.
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Group H: Uzbekistan, Bahrain, Philippines, DPR Korea, Yemen
Winner: The Uzbeks have long been a favorite of this blog. After all there's a strong corps of players being augmented by solid youth talents from a growing domestic league. They were in the hunt for a World Cup Spot until the final weeks of the last cycle, and they played well in the Asian Cup this January. Sure their president might be a nut job who made his daughters pop stars, ambassadors, corporate honchos, heirs apparent to the presidency, and then (at least in one case) political prisoners. But still, how 'bout that team, eh?

At least he didn't name them manager

Dark Horse: Maybe it's that they're the only reasonable country in the group. Maybe it's that their nickname is "the Street Dogs". Maybe it's that I'm afraid of Manny Pacquiao. But I feel like the Philippines might be poised for a surprising finish. Bahrain and Korea are both on the slide and Yemen is in turmoil while the Philippines has seen steady results and, in goal keeper Neil Ethridge, boast the only Chelsea trainee in the whole group.

***
12 Teams advancing to third Round (** signifies Top 4 runner up)
UAE
Australia
**Jordan
Qatar
Iran
Japan
Iraq
**Thailand
South Korea
**Kuwait
Uzbekistan
**The Philippines

Starting XI (A Month Late): Granting Montanan Passports

I know that most football fans are fixated on the current league season, and while we too are interested in the fates of the world's best footballers, we'll also take some time this year to shout out smaller regional tournaments [such as those for Central America (going on in the US right now!), the Caribbean (November in Jamaica), Southeast Asia (December in Vietnam), Asia (January in Australia), and Africa (January/February in Morocco)]

But before we do that, let's take a minute to reflect on the players at the recent World Cup who impressed us most. Players we would want for a Montanan National team--if such a thing were to exist. Players who fit the Montana model: gritty, tough, dedicated, passionate, and just a little quirky (Ronaldo's and Muller's need not apply). And since FIFA's relatively easy going about the whole "actually being a citizen" thing, we might as well shoot for the stars with our starting eleven.


Here's our guys:

I. Tim Howard--As if there could be any one else. Timmy is welcome in Montana any time, the beard, the tats, the blunt and forceful shouting...he basically is Montana any time, so sign on up Tim-bo, we'll be happy to have you.

II. Stefan De Vrij--For the sector of the state that farms and ranches (which is to say...most of it), you need to be tireless, dedicated, omnipresent. There's no off day, no vacation time. And watching the Dutch run to third place it was clear that there was no break for Stefan De Vrij. So welcome aboard Stefan, there's a nice couple acres out north of Choteau if you're interested.

III. Matt Hummels--Montana has an ample German history, strong willed immigrants who stake out the land and hold on to it, come hell or high water. Hummels would fit that mold nicely, grinding through every match, but showing enough of an offensive streak to be a little bit dangerous too. We're printing out "Private Property" signs for him to put around the 6 yard box.

AND he has the quintessential Montanan basement

IV. David Luiz--Lest you think we're all grizzled ranch hands, remember we also have Missoula...a city weird enough to make Austin jealous with none of the vainglorious self importance. David Luiz would be a perfect Missoulian representative: the hair of a hippy, the soul of a leader.

V. Mario Ypes--As long as we're tending to often ignored demographics, why not get some of Montana's quickly aging population on board? I think if we offer them a representative on the team, say, Ypes, the certified crotchety old man of Colombia, we could have a little sympathy for the squad amongst the VAs and retirement homes.

VI. Javier Mascherano--Along with Montana's age and agriculture, we have a fierce artistic streak. That's where Mascherano comes in. The soul of an artist with the body and style of a defender, he's a perfect piece of dualism within a dualized state.

VII. Bastian Schweinsteiger--This is simple: the man is talented and has a name that would be great fun to hear all my dear hoarse and disbelieving neighbors say.

Don't shush my Alps mockery!

VIII. Xerdan Shaqiri--While Montanans tend to confine their Swiss appreciation to the Miss and the Cheese (I mean...you call the "Alps" mountains...please). Shaqiri feels like a great fit for my own home town of Great Falls, a flier of sorts with a bad-boy mohawk, but enough attacking energy to keep the kids and the seniors alike well pleased.


IX. Celso Borges--Costa Rica's overlooked midfielder offers a quiet, dependable presence, with little emphasis on style and a whole lot of focus on work ethic. He actually could spend his down time baling hay or on a thresher.

Your secret's safe with us

X. Enner Valencia--Ecuador's top striker just feels right for the Montanan national team. He's not the first name you think of, he's not the most dominating or domineering figure, but he's dangerous...always dangerous.

XI. Reza Goochenhejad--In the spirit of "to each his own" Montanan individualism, and with a consideration for some fierce patriotism, we'd be happy to adopt the Gooch as our own Double agent. He already serves that purpose on the field, employing a mostly defensive mindset with splashes of daring attacks.

There you go Treasure Staters, that's my pick for the Montana National Starting 11. Would we win? No. Would we make the finals? No. Would we be bad ass? Yes...and that's all that matters.

Happy Trails: 32-17

32: Au revoir, Cameroon
Why They Lost: Between Samuel Eto'o holding back, and Alex Song popping off, Cameroon's got no one to blame but themselves. When your biggest pre-tournament warm up is a spat over payment, your priorities are clearly elsewhere.
What We'll Miss: Eto'o's last stand and the chance to see the Indomitable Lions finally live up to the old accomplishments of Roger Milla.

31: Asiabi, Honduras

Why they Lost: Sure, Honduras wasn't very good to start with, but when you combine not being great with playing rough and rumbly at a tournament where breathing on a star the wrong way can get you carded and you've got a recipe for disaster.

What We'll Miss: The chance to point out Honduras as an example of how "tough" futbol can be to the haters in the world.

30: G'day, Australia
Why They Lost: Australia seriously suffered from a lack of ten other Tim Cahills. Ten more Cahills and they might actually have a solid chance at getting a point.
What We'll Miss: Tim Cahill...oh wait, he'll be touring the country with the MLS...then probably just the adorable "Socceroo" love that guy.

29: Sayonara, Japan
Why They Lost: Japan came out of the gates with one heckuva-a-half, taking the lead against a dangerous Ivory Coast team. After that everything came apart, losing to the Elephants, drawing with the Greeks and getting rocked by Colombia.
What We'll Miss: We may not like thunderstix, but man, Japanese fans do a great job of dressing up like crazy people for the world cup.


28: Be Omide Didar, Iran
Why They Lost: The shut down defense that carred Team Melli through the whole of qualification did not desert them when they got to Brazil, frustrating some of the best offenses from around the world until Bosnia finally broke through.
What We'll Miss: Reza Goochanenjad and Alireza Hagighi, both talented on the pitch and posessors of kickass hairdo's

27: Annyong-hi Kashipsho, Korea
Why They Lost: A full season in Europe, a flight across the whole of Asia to train, a flight across the whole Pacific to warm up, a flight to Brazil to compete. Worn down, exhausted, the Taeguk Warriors barely stood a chance.
What We'll Miss: I really do like the nickname Taeguk (Peace) Warriors...if you'd like a new nickname Dan Snyder, I'd suggest that.

26: Cheerio, England
Why they Lost: As cohesive and organized as England can seem, they lack the star power of a truly superlative scorer. Wayne Rooney's strong, but would be less imposing if he didn't have Nike behind him. Daniel Sturridge might be getting there but there's a ways to go. Unless you can find a way to make a Louis Suarezington, or Marvin Balotellingham III, they'll always looked outgunned.
What We'll Miss: The Sun's Apopleptic Headlines. Eternally entertaining.


25: Nante Yie, Ghana
Why They Lost: Players went on strike against playing due to lack of pay on Tuesday, then Kevin Prince Boateng and Sulley Muntari got in an altercation with a national team official leading to their expulsion and weakening their squad en route to a loss in the critical final match.
What We'll Miss: The Black Stars have always been a favorite of mine. I was torn when they lost to the US and worried when they came close to upending Portugal and stealing second place. I'll still root for Boateng and Muntari, and still root for the Black Stars, especially as more veteran players set up for another run in 4 years.

24: Do Svidanja, Russia
Why The Lost: I might be the world's leading Fabio Capello basher, but seriously, I have yet to see any of the skill that people drool over.
What We'll Miss: Making fun of both Fabio Capello and Vladmir Putin.

23: Adios, Spain
Why They Lost: Vicente Del Bosque knows what works, unfortunately he does not know what ELSE can work. The buddies, the pals, the squad that worked so well for the last three championships is still in place, whether or not it should be is another matter. Certainly, the piss poor showing against Holland and Chile suggests not.
What We'll Miss: Hour after hour of ESPN drooling over a Spanish dynasty and the "genius" of tiki-taka futbol

22: Arrivederci, Italy
Why They Lost: Hubris, thy name is Azzuri. After a sparkling win against England, it looked to be clear sailing against Costa Rica into the second round, instead they were inert and disinterested, doing nothing much of import. The final defeat to Uruguay was another unimpressive result waiting for divine intervention from the referee, only to be left wanting.
What We'll Miss: A couple of drops of blood from Giorgio Chiellini's shoulder.

21: Katora, Cote D'Ivoire
Why They Lost: One last foul. One last foul in the box that lost the draw, lost the point needed to move on and led to Greece (who had played worse than most of the other teams in this list) moving into the next round. They were a minute away...it's a shame, a real shame.
What We'll Miss: The classics: Kalou, the Toures and Drogba, and the newbies: Gervinhio and Wilfried Bony, pretty much all the talent out there

20: Vidimo Se, Bosnia/Herzegovina
Why they Lost: Like Andriy Schevchenko before him, Edin Dzeko is a tremendous scorer who can't do everything. He missed some golden opportunities, but his rivals came no where close to even creating them.
What We'll Miss: Edin Dzeko clearly should be a marked man around the world, it will be a pity to miss out on him doing the same in later rounds.

19: Zbogom, Croatia
Why They Lost: Dejan Lovren's late "penalty" against Brazil seemed to be a stunner, from which Croatia could never quite recover. They were playing from behind the whole time and never got their feat under them.
What We'll Miss: We've never loved Croatia, but we were okay with their jersey...it takes real men to wear picnic table cloths.

18: Ate Logo, Portugal
Why They Lost: Say what you will about Lionel Messi needing to show up at this tournament, Cristiano Ronaldo was almost nowhere and is rarely anywhere in the World Cups. A great cross to tie the US came after a lackluster 94 minutes, and a final goal to beat Ghana looked more lucky than good. Rely on him too much and you struggle through.

Coming soon to a league near you

What We'll Miss: Women coming to matches--without Ronaldo there's a little less to look at.

17: Ricunacungacama, Ecuador
Why They Lost: Ecuador played tremendously, looking great against Honduras, playing pretty well against France and looking for all the world like they had Switzerland beat. If they hadn't ceded that final second desperation goal, they'd likely have made CONMEBOL, 6 for 6.
What We'll Miss: Enner Valencia is pretty badass, but we're betting we won't have to wait four years to see him on tv again...your move Europe.

Waning Seconds: Groups E & F

Let's take a quick glimpse at exactly what must be done for teams to qualify, or, in the case of others not heading in to the last round of matches.

MORNING--
Argentina V.s. Nigeria
It's firmly established that Lionel Messi is the savior of Argentinian hopes and dreams, but you have to wonder if anyone else can do it. Argentina's booked into the next round but Nigeria isn't...if the Argentine's use the match to rest Messi and warm up his understudies for a 2nd round run, the Super Eagles could spring a surprise (or at least grab a point) and move on as well.

Iran V.s. Bosnia-Herzegovina
The Iranian dream lives on. But it all depends on how they fare against the already ousted Bosnians. Bad luck and missed calls have stymied the debutantes at the cup, but they could easily take this match and spoil the Iranians hopes and dreams...OR...Carlos Quieroz could finally find the cojones to draw up some specific plays for Reza Goochenajad and try to grab the full three points, putting pressure on Nigeria to definitely get the win (as goal differential only barely favors the Africans)

AFTERNOON--
France V.s. Ecuador
Les Blus have looked absolutely dominant for most of their tournament so far...but they are French and it could all slip away in rapid fashion of Ecuador trounces them and Switzerland trounces Honduras. That might take some doing (especially given the sputtering offenses of their rivals) but never bet against the French disaster. Ecuador likely can't be confident in just taking a point as Switzerland has looked far better than Honduras thus far, and La H is already packing it in.

Switzerland V.s. Honduras
With Honduras eliminated they can do one of two things: a) roll over and play dead letting the Swiss steamroll them and head on to the next round, or b) play the same ugly, aggressive, haphazard brand of futbol they've played before, and force the Swiss to sneak a point or two en route to making the next round. Basically, everything's coming up Swiss.

3 On/3 Off: Matches 27-29

It was a near perfect day of futbol. Thrilling matches that were extremely close throughout, open thrilling style, and the bright sunshine actually drew me out of my game watching hidy-hole and got me to socialize with other fans in the bright sun. So we'll sneak in an extra substitution, just for fun...

FIRST: ON--Nomad World Pub--I'm proud of my Montanan roots, and my Montanan-isms, and generally all things Montanan, but I'd be hard pressed to find a place like the Nomad World Pub with the live music from around the world, a vast array of domestic and imported beer, a willingness to experiment with different drinks, and a great venue to crowd around with all manner of fans. This is the kind of thing that we need to pull people in to the wonderful world of futbol. Thank you for being awesome Nomad, and thank you for supporting it Minnesota United...spread the word and bring in the people.

ON: Lionel Messi...Argentine Savior--For all the gushing about Argentina's attacking options, it's really been Messi or bust, today it took one of the great strikes of the tournament to get them past Iran and book their ticket for the second round. Let's just go ahead and own it next match Argentina, put ten guys in goal and let Messi do what he does up top.
OFF: Iran Jokes--It's a remarkable thing, but Iran seems to have become the darling of the World Cup, sure they don't do much attacking, and their style of defense is best described as "massive", but we love an underdog. So, getting my haircut, the barbers were intrigued by their style. Hanging out with other fans, even Argentine's were hoping to see a miracle strike groaning with each Goochenajad miss. So, come on Iran, give up your nuclear program and send one guy on loan to the MLS...we'll be your best buds...for a couple months at least.



ON--The Ayew Boys--Abedi Pele is not the Pele you've heard of, but he is the omnipresent legend of Ghanaian football. His sons, Andre and Jordan were tremendous for the Black Stars today in one of the most impressive results in the federation's history. Andre (aka Dede) nodded home the crucial equalizer that put Germany on the back foot, and Jordan's daring runs at the end of the match kept neutral fans entranced even as die hards worried about counterattacks.
OFF--The Boateng Boys--The run up to the match was concerned primarily with the second civil war of Jerome and Kevin-Prince Boateng. Unfortunately that was completely anti-climactic. Niether made good touches, there was little creation or strong passing from either and the game opened up and was far more exciting when they were subbed out at half time. Heck! Kevin even gave Mesut Ozil a better hug than his brother!


ON--Africa--It's been an underwhelming ten days for African sides, but today things turned around clearly and decisively, with Ghana stunning Germany and Nigeria holding off Bosnia. Vincent Enyema's gone so far as to position himself as keeper of the tournament. Whether or not they can get a team (or two...or--in an ideal circumstance--four) through to the next round remains to be seen, but they aren't nearly the pushover one would have thought
OFF--The Baltics--Bosnia had a decisive moment for Edin Dzeko wiped away by a linesman's bad call, but he also missed a parcel of other opportunities en route to the debutantes getting bounced out of the cup. They're not alone, the Croatians are clinging to life in Group A, and the Serbian referee of today's Argetnina-Iran match missed an obvious foul in the box that might have us singing a far different tune about Mr. Messi (or maybe not).

3 On/3 Off: Matches Twelve-Fourteen

America's fixation on two of the premier matches in the group stage made this a day to circle on the calendar But know that the day is past, it's worth reflecting on exactly how things panned out, both for the good and the bad.

ON: Thomas Muller--The first (official hat trick) of the cup came against an unlikely rival, but the German execution did what it has always been designed to do--destroy anything that gets in its way. Even one of the top 5 teams in the world.
OFF: Pepe--Stupidity, thy name is Pepe. Sure Muller's dive to the ground in supposed "eye-gouge" agony was frustrating, but harassing, intimidating and finally headbutting solves absolutely nothing If there's one consolation, it's that all the mockery of his moronic decision may push young players to never, under any circumstances imitate him.

ON: Carlos Quieroz--The Portugese mastermind had a clear cut strategy, distract and frustrate the Nigerian attack at every turn, stack players in the box until there's no way through and make the most of a little mistake. Holding on to that strategy in the face of the Super Eagles early gains served Team Melli very well. And while I think they could well have grabbed a win a little more focus in building out of the midfield, a point for a team widely critiqued as the worst in the field is awfully promising.
OFF: Stephen Keshi--The first African manager to take his home nation to a world cup (beating Ghana's James Appiah by 3 hours) did himself no favors by refusing to alter strategy in the face of quality defense. When attacking up the middle didn't work, he had defenders boom the ball...down the middle...and then do it again...and again...One of the ugliest performances of the cup so far, bodes ill for the next matches.

ON: Tim Howard--TIMMY! was the saving grace of a spotty American back field tonight. Every time the final four ceded an inch of space, a thunderous cross or shot was rocketing into the box. Time after time, Timbo saved the day. Sure Dede Ayew equalized (courtesy of a brilliant Gyan back heel), but most other keepers at the cup would have folded long before that moment. There are questions about the American defense...but not the man between the posts.
OFF: Ghana's Mojo--I've travelled to Ghana a couple times now. I take pride in speaking a local dialect, and know that my back up World Cup squad is most definitely the Black Stars. I also know that Ghana believes in a certain kind of swagger, a particular form of magic, and they use it to their advantage to never ever play intimidated in a match. It threw off the last two American squads who underestimated the rival...but it ran out today. Whether or not it comes back in time for Germany is a major question.

Tomorrow I go back to work with a day long teacher training. So Belgium/Algeria and Brazil/Mexico may not hit my radar. Sill and all, I'll be glad to catch up as soon as I can.

Starting XI: Ridiculously Specific Predictions!

The World Cup is about to start, and while we could easily review all kinds of facts, features and factoids from the last month worth of writing, let's look forward to exactly what we think will happen once the talk stops and the games start.

I. Group A: With all the hype and energy around the opening match, a potent Brazilian offense and intense crowd, Defender Dejan Lovren will make a badly timed tackle that gets an overly exuberant card and alters his playing style for the next match against Cameroon...the Indomitable Lions take advantage and use the win to knock out the Blazers and march on to the second round.

The unlucky goats of Holland

II. Group B: Strong though they are, a critical error in passing between Bruno Martins Indi and Stefan De Vrij opens the door for Chile to take a tie-breaking goal in the second half for Chile and send El Rojo through to the next round.

III. Group C: A late goal by unsung midfielder Abel Aguilar, makes no difference, as Colombia suffers a tough loss to Japan. But it does keep Colombia's goal differential positive and keeps Los Cafeteros moving on ahead of the Blue Samuri

IV. Group D: Uruguay's offense sputters in the face of a hobbled Luis Suarez, but worse still is the fact that keeper Fernando Muslera, develops a terrible habit of giving up equalizers shortly after La albiceleste grabs the lead. While he stymies Costa Rica after giving up an equalizer, the offense can't cut loose and grab the lead back. Last cup's dream team crashes out in a trio of draws.

Les Blus new favorites

V. Group E: Antoinne Griezman's fantastic play on the wing for France, leaves very few moaning about the absence of Franck Ribery, particularly as he helps Karim Benzema to a pair of braces in the first two matches, en route to a group topping performance.

VI. Group F: Carlos Quieroz has a magic touch at organizing defensive mischief, with complex alternating schemes that frustrate both Eden Dzeko and John Obi Mikel in a pair of stunning victories to put Team Melli through to the next round.

VII. Group G: US Media blows it's lid when the ageless Asamoah Gyan scores again to give Ghana ANOTHER win against the US, with Fox News even snidely suggesting that this is what happens when you hire a German to do an American's job--not that they care about soccer at all (until Fox has world cup broadcasting rights). The tune swings back when the Yanks stun Portugal with Jurgen being hailed as a genius and everything ends in a muted pfft when they drop the final match to Germany.

Lacen practices how to shake a spy

VIII. Group H: Medhi Lacen puts his name at the top of the KGB hit list, when he scores a 83rd minute equalizer to deny Russia an obvious win and boost South Korea in a quiet race for runner up.

IX. Round of 16: Pushed to Penalties by Colombia, a strong Italian side comes unglued when Andrea Pirlo pushes it over the bar, in echoes of Roberto Baggio 20 years before.

X. Quarter Finals: On the verge of a stunning upset, Belgium comes undone as the workload of Thibaut Courtois is unravelled in 5 minutes of sterling futbol from Lionel Messi...an 89th minute bit of impossible creation and a gut punching through ball to Gonzalo Higuin in stoppage time ends the Red Devils run.

Ending where we thought...
But what a ride

XI. Final Four: Aching and hobbled after a strong challenge in the semi from Benedikt Howdes, Neymar pulls a Ronaldo-esque flu story line into the finals. Like Ronaldo he isn't much help, but a stunning feed from Paulinho to Fred sets up the Cup winner over Spain.

There's our overly specific, outrageous and easily foiled predictions...but hey, it's fun to think about how it will all play out--especially when it doesn't.

Meet the Team: Iran

Nickname: Team Melli is not a pro-muppet meme...it's the common nickname (meaning just "The National Team"), others like "The Lions of Persia," but Melli almost sounds cute, just the thing for a shockingly strident Iranian squad.

The Gooch

Star: The fastest rising star in the Iranian futbol firmament is easily Reza Goochannejhad. Formerly a Dutch junior international, his swap to the Melli, has paid off with 9 goals in 11 caps. Boosted from the Belgian league up to Charlton Athletic, he's the closest thing to Iranian legend Ali Daei as we're likely to see for a while.

Hip-Star: While the Iranians have mostly given into the fad of foreign bred/based players, there are still those who practice and train year round in the Persian sands. Notably a hard-nosed, veteran, localized defense that allowed just seven goals and did it all without the precious fanfare of international media. The heir to the defensive throne is unquestionable Ehsan Hajsafi, who debuted for the national team at 18 and has been a stalwart since...not that you would know him, obviously.

X-Factor: Famously isolationist you have to wonder just how Iranians will deal with this decidedly foreign-flavored team. Sure there have been moves to globalize Iran's standing in the world, thanks in no small part to president Hassan Rohani, but there's just as much desire to pull away and prove an imperial dominance in the region that a diasporic team can't do. So are players going for the glory of sporting dominance, or the mother land?

They don't seem to isolationist to Carlos

Coach: After some ill advised dalliances as a head man in New York and the UAE, Carlos Quieroz refined his skills under the tutelage of Sir Alex Ferguson. A trip to South Africa with Portugal was unsatisfying for those in Lisbon, but those in Tehran salivated at the chance to sign him up. Who cared if Portugal only scored against North Korea? Iran, needed defense, and Quieroz has provided all that and more. Whether or not it pays off in Brazil has yet to be seen.

History: The team's best glory days (when they dominated Asia from 1968-1976) are long gone, but they have made a habit of being a thorn in the sides of others, drawing with Scotland in 1978, beating the hated US in 1998 and bedeviling Mexico for 45 minutes in 2006. Who they foil this time will depend on just how long they last.

Food: Continuing my quasi-vegetarian kick, I'm curious to try out Kuku, a combination of eggs, greens and herbs...or really, just herbs with a little egg to hold it all together. Persian fritatta, bring it on.


Fool: I'm an American, so what would this post be without a shot at the Ayatollah Ali Khameni who avoids all the hassle of engaging in debate, preferring to "correct" mistakes of elected officials whenever the mood strikes. Good luck selling that one to FIFA refs.

Best Case: The defense is as good as advertised, stifling the entirety of Group F long enough for Goochannejhad to knock in a couple for at least one win and a stunning berth in the second round. That's where they wrong foot an overconfident France and hold Ronaldo scoreless for 60 minutes in the quarterfinals before the golden boy takes his revenge on his old boss.

Worst Case: Both the defense and the counterattacks are left on the Copa Cabana beaches where the newly liberated national team sees thongs as a blessing rather than a curse. Washing out with zero points, no one goes back to Iran, and all of John Kerry's work on a nuclear deal goes *pfft*

My prediction: Call me crazy...[pauses to be called crazy] but having followed Asian qualifying closely, I was impressed at the defense of Iran. As much focus as goal scoring gets, the World Cup is often a war of attrition, and few sides are better suited to that war than Iran. I think Carlos Quieroz's crew won't score much though "Gooch" will help, but they'll let in even less, and with a divided Nigeria and inexperienced Bosnia, I have them as my second shock team in the next round. (France will eat them alive...but hey...it's a good run) Round of 16 (2nd in Group--6 points)

Added Bonus: For a group that owes their musical genre to American Hip-Hop, Zedbazi sure does a fine job of admonishing us, here's their offering to the World Cup of Hip Hop "Irooni e LA" (Iranian in LA)

In it...but win it? #2 Australia, South Korea, Iran

We're ready to continue our look at teams that have qualified for the 2014 World Cup, by analyzing their chances as quickly as possible, thereby removing all responsibility for doing things well.

Qualifier #3 Australia
Contender Credentials: The Socceroos have quietly become one of the most consistent teams in the Asian Football Confederation. Building off a trip to Germany in 2006 (their last year in the Oceania Confederation), they have now made three-straight World Cups. Furthermore, the power of local players has become increasingly apparent as long serving national team members continue plying their trade in the top divisions of Europe, and increasingly do so along side well regarded younger players (24 year olds [GK] Mitchell Langerak, [F] Robbie Kruse and [MF] Tom Rogic).

Pretender Problems: Though heavily favored to qualify, Australia was totally lack luster in the first several rounds of qualifying matches, mustering just 1 in in 6 tries (though they did earn points in all their others). It's hard to imagine a team threatening the best in the world when they struggle with Oman as much as the Aussies did. Add in that favored veterans like goalie Mark Schwarzer are nearing 40 and the power house looks more like the old age home.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: The Aussies were playing it cool in the early go, but now are a force to be reckoned with, and with familiar hands helping the newbies they shock the world en route to the semis, while the lousy Kiwis stay home.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Worse than their qualifying campaign, one rank outsider beats them like an old didjeridoo while New Zealand shockingly makes the knockout stages.
Prediction: A few stellar showings marred by inability to finish the job leaves them just outside of the knockout stage--3rd in their group.

Qualifier #4 Iran
Contender Credentials: Over the last two decades Iran has had a familiar pattern--qualify, fail to qualify, qualify, fail to qualify. Though even in their failures they often come heartbreakingly close. They head to the tournament next year with coaching golden(ish) boy Carlos Quieroz at the helm, a man who led South Africa and Portugal to the Mondiale before doing the same for Team Melli and is as doggedly loyal and supportive of Iran in general as your friendly neighborhood Imam. Under Quieroz they have perhaps the most fearsome defense in Asia, ceding just two goals in the last round of qualification.

Pretender Problems: Ceding two goals was nearly two goals too many as Iran was tied with Qatar for third place coming into the month, only a startling offensive outburst from Standard Leige's Reza Ghoochannejhad boosted them in (largely on the back of a 4-0 romp over Lebanon). Iran also has a habit of promoting players attuned to the local political philosophy rather than those who are really really good (hence Ali Daei's 100+ caps...though his 100+ goals also have something to do with that).

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Slotted in a group with decadent westerners (and Israel) Iran crushes them all; then they do the same through the knock out stages until decimating the U.S. 10-0 in the final [this fantasy brought to you directly from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's brain]
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Quieroz implodes (as he is want to do) the goals dry up and all the players start drinking, swearing and saying provocative things like: "hey, whatever people want to do is cool with me, live and let live I always say" [this nightmare brought to you directly from Ayatollah Khameni's brain]
Prediction: The defense is not as effective on the world stage as it is in Asia and a dearth of goals (another Quieroz trademark), Iran finishes bottom of their group. But the players remain good muslims, inshallah [this dose of reality brought to you by everyone not named Mahmoud Ahmadinejad/Ayatollah Khameni]


Qualifier #5 South Korea
Contender Credentials: The fourth and final member of Asia's elite four teams: South Korea may have been playing the game the longest (assuming you count chuk-guk, which you should...if only for the name). They have a World Cup streak that might just shame the rest of the continent, having been to every Mondiale since 1986 (That's 8 straight to 3 for Australia and 5 for bitter rivals: Japan). Finally they offer perhaps the best developed and organized talent nurturing program on the continent, with national team fixtures (like Park-ji Sung) gladly making way for younger talents (like Son Heung-Min) that all routinely play in the top flight of international competition.

Pretender Problems: Chuk-guk is not futbol, and players who qualified in 1986 will not be taking the field in Brazil next summer. And for a talented team, the Taeguk Warriors sure didn't look like one in their final matches, as (on their home soil mind you) they needed an own goal to get past Uzbekistan and lost 1-0 to Iran. An onslaught of goals in Takshent nearly put the Uzbeks through and sent South Korea to the dread play-in...a pretty mighty fall from grace for a team that was on top of the group heading into last week.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Fueled by dynamic young talent, South Korea plays their most fluid style of futbol reminding everyone why they are the top talent in Asia and top their fourth place finish in 2002 by a solid three spots.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: The far flung players in Europe are worn out when they have to trudge to Asia for training and thence to South America for competition, finishing with three losses...meanwhile Japan wins the tournament and taunts Korea with it across sea, while North Korea takes their failure as a sign of weakness and attacks.
Prediction: Some underperforming European side [*cou{HOLLAND}gh!*] comes apart in their group and the Warriors capitalize to make their second straight appearance in the round of 16.

Waning Seconds: ASIA UPDATE!

A few weeks ago we ran down how every Asian team still had a chance to qualify for the world cup.

Yeah...that's not so much the case any more.

So here now is a run down on how it can play out tomorrow as three more tickets are punched for Brazil and one serious squabble is set for September.

First Match

Yup...it's adorable

Australia plays Iraq in Sydney in the first game of the day. The Iraqis must be disappointed not to parlay recent AFC success into a World Cup bid, but they could always settle for ruining the Socceroos day.

A win for Australia sees them straight to Brazil, anything less and they have to stay up late to see what happens between Oman and Jordan

Group A Simulcast

The most thrilling part of qualification is playing right in the midst of another match that could just as easily determine your destiny. That's the situation for South Korea, Iran and Uzebekistan (Qatar too...but they were left in the dust on the last match day so a four way battle is out of the question).

South Korea's goal is simplest. Get a point at home against Iran and you're going down South America way. Having won all their home tilts so far this campaign it seems likely.

Jon Snow is rooting for Uzbekistan

If South Korea does win, Uzbekistan can make history by winning their own match and vaulting the White Wolves into their first ever World Cup. But if they draw or lose, they'll have to face the third place finisher in Group B for the chance to face the fifth place team in South America for a spot in Brazil.

And, then again, Iran can screw everything up (after all, it is Iran). A win and they're in. A Uzbekistan draw or loss, and they're in. But if Iran wins mightily (like they did against Lebanon) and Uzbekistan wins mightily, then South Korea crashes down to third place. OR, if Iran draws and Uzbekistan wins mightily, then they Ayatollah's favored 11 have to do the 5th-place-playoff.

And just in case entry to the most prestigious tournament on the planet isn't enough drama for you, now the Koreans and Iranians are jawing at each other about "poor treatment" "humiliation" and subtle hints at match fixing...I'm guessing that match will have a little extra juice to it.

Final Match

The real thrill of the day comes at the end of the day in Amman, Jordan, but it depends largely on what happens in Australia six-and-a-half hours earlier.

When even a little soccer blog
takes potshots at you...you should
be sad

The visiting Red Warriors of Oman could easily settle for a draw to solidify their spot in third place/the fifth place playoff (a new record for their nation), especially if Australia wins in which case they couldn't do better than third anyway. But if the Socceroos fall, the door opens for Oman and a victory would set an even better new record: World Cup qualification. (An Australia draw plus a seven goal victory of Jordan would also see them through...but come on, there's a better chance of Keanu Reeves winning a Tony award than there is of that happening.)

The home team will be desperate for a win, as they need all three points just to move in to third (an Australia loss plus a highly unlikely 8 goal swing in goal differential is the only way they've got to get in directly).

So there it is, six teams are set to battle for three sure thing spots and two awkward third-place will-they-or-won't-they playoffs.

Waning Seconds: Asia

In just a little more than a week, the last matches of AFC qualifying will begin and we will start slotting our first, official, not-host-nation entrants into the World Cup. As we approach these crucial three weeks worth of games, it's worth noting that every team could still work their way into the cup. And so we present (from most likely to least likely) the scenarios for who will qualify from the AFC

Already Looking At Airfares

Japan (Remaining Matches (6/4--v. Australia; 6/11--@Iraq)

They Qualify If: They get 1 point from either remaining match

They Go to a Play-off If: They lose both matches and Jordan & Iraq win all remaining

They Stay Home Next Summer If: A giant prehistoric lizard thing rises up from the Pacific and decimates Tokyo 

THAT WAY TO BAGGAGE CLAIM!

Confederation champions, top of their group, persistent qualifiers and all around dominant force of Asian football, Japan really is pretty good to go. It would take a pair of crippling losses to Australia and Iraq coupled with Jordan and Australia winning out in huge fashion to knock them down to the play-in games. (Since Jordan and Australia play eachother on June 11th, they'll have to do something pretty fancy in order to both win.) Realistically, if you love Japanese football, you can start booking plane tickets, pricing thongs, stocking up on sunscreen and taking Samba lessons because barring a total disaster, you're going to Brazil next summer.

A Game in Hand is Worth Two in the Bush...or Table Or Something

Right next to Japan in the pantheon of Asian football powers, South Korea and Australia are pretty solid bets for any World Cup now-a-days. And though neither are at the top of their qualifying tables, both have three games left to gain points and get into the final round of competition.

South Korea (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Lebanon; 6/11--v. Uzbekistan; 6/18--v. Iran])

They Qualify IF: They get a couple wins in their last matches

They go to Play-off IF: They get three points

They Stay Home Next Summer IF: Kim Jong Un gets an itchy trigger finger

All South Korea really needs is a point from each of their three final matches (@ Lebanon and home for Uzbekistan and Iran) and they're golden. Well...actually, all South Korea needs is a point from each of  their final three matches AND somebody to eliminate all the nukes in North Korea and they're golden. And hey, hit four points and you don't even need to worry about the continental play-off.

Australia (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Japan; 6/11--v. Jordan; 6/18--v. Iraq])
They Qualify IF: They meet expectations
They go to Play-off IF: They continue to underwhelm
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: The wheels fall off the wagon, the shrimp fall off the barbi, and the Fosters plant moves to Holland.

Things are slightly trickier for the Socceroos who have to start with Japan (in a definite struggle that might see them slip out of even third place). But their final two matches (at home versus Jordan [who can't win away from Amman] and Iraq [already beaten by Australia]) offer plenty of points to a merely competent Australian squad.

"Donnie, You're Out of Your Element!"

Unlike the first three teams I wrote about, Uzebekistan and Jordan would be big dance debutants should their current positions hold. But they have one less game to play than their more experienced rivals, and they have little control over what really happens.

Uzbekistan (Remaining Matches [6/11--@South Korea; 6/18 v. Qatar])

Do you recognize these men?

They Qualify IF: The young guns like Sanzhar Tursunov and Farhod Tojiyev pull out at least one big win.
They go to Play-off IF: The old timers like Server Djeparov and Timur Kapadze refuse to let a great start go wrong and get at least a point from each match.
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: All the players want to avoid awkward mispronunciations of their names on international television and they tank the last couple matches

Uzbekistan's youth program has been impressive of late and may make for a compelling dark horse in Brazil. But to get there they'll likely need at least three points to put themselves in the playoffs, and rather than banking on a win in Seoul on the 11th, they'll likely gear up for a more winnable match against Qatar in Tashkent on the 18th.

Jordan (Remaining Matches [6/11--@ Australia; 6/18--v.s. Oman
They Qualify IF: They finally pack their A-Game on the road and defend home turf (as usual)
They go to Play-off IF: They defend home but continue to scuffle on the road.
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They scuffle both home and away.

Meanwhile Jordan's Al-Nashama (The Chivalrous) have a more closely packed group with three teams behind them, all within two points of second place. Having failed to get a single point on the road in this group, Jordan has to head for Melbourne on the 11th, before closing out with Oman on the 18th. To be fair, the Socceroos have drawn both of their home ties this campaign, so a point in Melbourne isn't out of the question, but if The Chivalrous want to make King Abdullah proud, they definitely need the win in Amman (and then hope for a fair shot in the continental play-offs)

Literally...Everything to Play For

Iran (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Qatar; 6/11--v. Lebanon; 6/18--@ South Korea])
They Qualify IF: They want to live like heroes
They go to Play-off IF: They want to live
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They want to live like heroes of a revolution

Iran has a long and storied history in international football (like Japan, South Korea and Australia); they also have three games still to play (like South Korea and Australia), but they have a slightly more challenging task ahead of them. They're already 3 points back of South Korea, and need multiple results in their favor to pull ahead of Uzbekistan. They have to face the two underdog teams in Lebanon and Qatar whose whole campaigns hinge on beating Team Melli, before finishing IN South Korea.

Khameni prefers a 4-3-4

Then there's this: Iran's presidential election is scheduled for June 14th (between the Lebanon and South Korean matches). It will be the first election in Iran since the Arab Spring and the Green Revolution that threatened full scale rebellion during the last election (2009). Mahmoud Ahmadinijad will not be running. The Aytollah has blocked genuine reformers including former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani from candidacy. And the national team includes Masoud Shojaei and Captain Javad Nekounam who both suddenly "retired" after supporting the Green Revolution protestors publicly during their last qualifying campaign. Add to all of this the fact that qualifying for the World Cup is a welcome distraction from domestic troubles, but failing to qualify for the World Cup kind of, sort of, endangers really any ruling party in any country anywhere.

SO! If Iran beats Qatar and Lebanon, not only will they qualify for at least the continental play-offs, but the elections likely go off without a hitch, protecting players for another year or more and installing another hardline reformer who follows the will of the Ayatollahs. If Iran drops either or (inshallah) BOTH games, the populace (particularly young men with nothing better to do) will likely be dissatisfied, the elections are jeopardized and Shojaei and Nekounam (plus any other idealistic young athletes) have to face the awkward decision of whether they stand up with their fellow citizens and risk expulsion from the team [again] OR if they shut up and play out the string as their country roils from the inside out.

That's a little bit of pressure, wouldn't you say?

Clinging to the Cliff Face

I kind of want in on this party!

Oman (Remaining Matches [6/4--v.s. Iraq; 6/18--@Jordan])
They Qualify IF: They dominate their last two opponents and run up the goal differential
They go to Play-off IF: They just take care of business
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They decide they don't want to allow jabronis around the world to shout "Oh, man! Oman lost again!" and throw the last two matches

As we noted with Jordan, there are four teams bunched within 2 points of each other. And all that comes to a head when Iraq and Oman square off in Muscat on the 4th of June. A win for Oman and they can write their own ticket, they'll be just a point in Jordan away from a minimum 3rd place finish. 

Iraq (Remaining Matches [6/4--@Oman; 6/11--v.s. Japan; 6/18@Australia])
They Qualify IF: They rule and their opponents drool.
They go to Play-off IF: They do well and their opponents do slightly less well...
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They are average and their opponents are a little better than that.

Meanwhile, a win for Iraq puts the recent Asian title holders on a brutal final set of matches, at home versus Japan and in Australia. Best case scenario: Iraq beats Oman while Japan wraps up their qualifying with a win over Australia. Then Japan rests their stars allowing Iraq an easy three points in the second match, setting up a decisive final match against Australia (who pull a measly draw with Jordan in their second match), with momentum going all the way of the Lions of Mesopotamia. Worst case scenario: literally anything else happens.

Qatar (Remaining Matches [6/4--v. Iran; 6/18--@Uzbekistan])
They Qualify IF: They shock they world
They go to Play-off IF: They mildly surprise the world
They Stay Home Next Summer IF:  They totally underwhelm the world

And then there's Qatar the little nation that wants so badly to prove they aren't the corrupt ne'er-do-wells who swiped away the 2022 World Cup from other countries. Their chance to prove exactly that starts on the 4th in Doha where a win over Iran would go a long way to improving their odds (and ruining Iran's). Provided that Iran and Uzbekistan scuffle in their June 11th matches (against Lebanon and South Korea respectively) that sets the stage for Qatar to slip in if they win big in Uzbekistan on the 18th.

Slim To None

Lebanon (Remaining Matches [6/4--v.South Korea; 6/11--@Iran])
They Qualify Directly IF: They refuse to lose and other teams refuse to win
They go to Play-off IF: They refuse to lose and one team stubbornly meets expectations
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They accept their own limitations and find satisfaction in their accomplishments to this point.

We've been driving the Lebanon bandwagon for over a year and a half now. But there is only one path that can get our beloved Cedars into a qualifying scenario. They need to win their last two matches: against South Korea in Beirut and at Tehran and then hope that Qatar and Iran draw their own match (June 4th during the South Korea game) and lose/draw the rest of the way.

Any outright victory for either the Qatari or the Iranians and Lebanon would have to get a massive swing in goal differential, or a horrific plague of gout in the other countries...so, better win now.

Those are all the ways that Asian qualification could end. And while we would love to see Japan, Australia, South Korea, and the Uzbeks make it in (with Lebanon squeaking into the intercontinental playoffs) We have to admit, it's a tetchy possibility at best. 

One thing's for sure. Monday Morning Futbol is going to be a whole lot of fun for the next three weeks.

AFC WIBD Round 4: Stand Still and Conquer

We're back to the "Well-I'll-Be-Darned" awards, recognizing unlikely teams who still have a shot at qualifying for the World Cup Finals in Brazil.


We'll start with the team closest to qualification...the mighty Cedars of Lebanon the first team to ever win a regional WIBD Award two rounds running!

Yes, Lebanon moved on despite being the lowest ranked qualifier for the AFC's 3rd Round. This was a team that wasn't supposed to beat Bangladesh in Round 2. But they topped the Tigers and moved on to face the UAE, Kuwait and South Korea. None of whom they'd beaten in a World Cup competition over the last 20 years earning our praise in the process.

As many predicted, Lebanon suffered an early smack down at the hands of South Korea. But then beat the UAE at home, drew with Kuwait, beat Kuwait IN Kuwait City and pulled the biggest stunner of all: topping Asian giant South Korea 2-1 in Beirut to move on to the next round of the competition.

Despite my laziness and lackadaisical/nonexistent posting, Lebanon has continued on in the competition battling Korea (again), rising power Uzbekistan, fading power Iran, and embattled future cup hosts Qatar.

An early loss in Beirut to Qatar put the Trees on the ropes, and while they salvaged a point against the Uzbeks, another loss in South Korea have left them in dire need of as many points as possible, as quickly as possible.

Still, we remain optimistic that Lebanon can do just that. Start with the fact that the rest of the world has started to take notice. The UN used the symbol of a football team bringing unity to a war torn country as the basis for a unifying tv show. Even the BBC covered their rise to prominence. The Australian Socceroo's are a little worried ahead of an upcoming friendly match, and while Captain Roda Antar will be unavailable due to injury, the rest of the first squad should be available for the critical upcoming matches at home against Iran and in Qatar.

NOT Coach Bucker

Coach Theo Bucker (not revenge of the Nerds star: Booger) remains a focal point for the team. The players love him, even if the fans are dubious of his goalie choices, preferring local veteran Ziad Al-Samad, to Swedish based 23 year old novice Abbas Hassan. A summer time struggle to qualify for the regional Arab Cup increased the pressure on Bucker.

Still Bucker's got a vision to make the Cedars not just a success this year, but a constant presence in Asia's upper echelon, by mirroring the Japanese model of developing great local coaches and ensuring long term growth.

Nader Matar, a stylish young man
in need of a nickname

That effort will likely be helped by the rise of young international talents from the Lebanese diaspora. In addition to Hassan playing in Sweden other young talents like 22 year old Ahmad Zreik (in Greece) and Nader Matar (in Spain) promise to serve up balls to the prodigious young talent Hasaan Matoouk. {But seriously guys we need to come up with some nicknames, how about Nader "To"Matar? Huh? A little vegetable punning?)

It's been great to have a team not just to cheer for but to cheer for as they actually excel! We Montanan Soccer Hooligans will continue to rally as much support as we can for Lebanon. Fight on you mighty Cedars! Stand still and conquer!

Analysis our Way

The next round of qualifying has kicked off, home-and-away matches that will set the Caribbean and Asia alight with furious competition. While these matches may turn into do or die affairs for the players and supporters, we have the liberty of remaining aloof, objective, and totally uninformed.

In that spirit here are our previews of the next round of Asian and North American qualifying rounds: group by group, with special insight from our fellow Hooligans--Edemame Pajyamas and Celestial Aly

Don't fight it...she always wins

AFC

Group A What a special group. You've got a plucky underdog in Iraq, a hulking Goliath in China, a cast of diverse, quirky characters from Singapore and a mysterious unknown in Jordan. Given all those story lines to make movies out of, you have to think that the powers that be in Hollywood would love to see the Iraqis come through with China...if only for the chance to make a sequel. I'm sure there's a part in there for Zoe Saldana (eager, interpid reporter, maybe?) and whatever Zoe Saldana wants, Zoe Saldana gets.

Group B While we've already discussed Lebanon's chances, it should be noted that South Korea's track record, top flight talent and willingness to set themselves on fire for victory make them the odds on favorite to win the group. Second place should be a toss up between Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates: since their nicknames are the white and the blue we fully expect that Parisian fashion designers will let us know which one is in and which is out this season.

Group C Kim Jong-Il's son--Kim Jong-Un--can firmly establish his power base if he oversees his team's ascendency to the next round of the World Cup. The best strategy to do that would be to kidnapped and indoctrinate the Japanese and Uzbeki players who visit Pyongyang for matches in the country. So if something that unlikely happens (and hey, it's North Korea, so it might!) then it'll be North Korea and Tajikistan (by default, natch.)

Group D Sure the Saudi's and the Aussies are the top teams in the group, sure they've got a bundle of World Cup appearances between them, sure they are the most likely teams to win the group...but I don't own one of their jerseys. Buoyed by my support Thailand should slip in to the next round in group two...if only because they risk incurring my wrath if they do not.

Group E A hard group to handicap. Iran has a dangerous attacking squad but might be past it's prime. Rising young powers Bahrain has made great strides recently in suppressing the opposition (through force if need be) and you should never underestimate Qatar's resources and determination to prove themselves. And hey! I just realized that my analysis of each nation's questionable governmental structures could also be applied to their football...how about that!

CONCACAF

Group A Just look at the Dominican's line-up. Manny Ramirez, Albert Pujols, evenan aging Pedro Martinez is better than anybody that Suriname, the Cayman Islands or El Salvador could scrounge up...oh, wait a second...I got confused about which sport I was writing about...uhh...let's just say El Salvador.

Now this is a line-up that could
get all the way to Brazil!

Group B There's not a lot of soccer power in Guyana or Bermuda, but Barbados could have a great chance...if they could pull the trident off of the flag and use it to impale the opposition. Other than that there's nobody to touch Trinidad or Tobago (and with their powers combined...well, they're not quite Captain Planet...but they're close)

Group C With the Bahamanians already picking up their ball and going home, there are only three teams left to fight. It will be the first group decided, the first one that sends someone on to the next round, so let's just go ahead and say the first team listed alphabetically wins, congratulations Dominica!!

Group D Canadian's are already excited about their chances to get through--and who could blame them? On top of their talent, Canadian fans are prone to throwing things on rinks and fields of every size and shape--it's doubtful that their only real challenge (St. Kitts & Nevis) are going to know what to do when octopi, hats or maple syrup rains down on them.

Hipster Zombies prefer their brains
at gastropubs with chipotle aioli

Group E Group E is brought to you by the letter G as Grenada, Guatemala and Grenadines(/St. Vincent). For that reason (and no other) Belize wins the group.

Group F I've written before about the US Virgin Islands having as much chance as anybody in a wildly unpredictable group. But, even with all their struggles, the smart money still has to be on Haiti. They gave us the modern form of Zombies, now they can unleash a 21st century strain of zombie (hipsters oversaturated on zombie memes)