A Final Happy Trails Review

I posted this blurry, unsatisfying video that walked through all the teams that had been ousted, please spare me the singing critique that's not what this is about.
Instead let's look at the teams who did the best job of over/underperforming to their FIFA Ranking

To be  sure there are some flaws to my methods. I eliminated people chronologically, giving more credit to teams who powered through many rounds of difficult competition rather than those who ran up the score on the San Marino's of the world.

With that in mind, here are the top 5 over achievers club

Andorra + 112
Ethiopia +98
San Marino +84
Lebanon +82
Iceland +81

Everybody loves Gylfi

Okay, take out the "mathematical elimination in 2012 club" of Andorra and San Marino and you have three of the best stories of the tournament. Ethiopia (coached by a part-time high school gym teacher), Iceland (buoyed by one phenomenal Gylfi), and Lebanon (the only team in Asia to make it through three rounds of competition).

Here's our two best over acheivers of the finals themselves
Ecuador +51
Costa Rica +50

Yes Enner, I'm praising you again...

Not surprising that the Ticos were here given their astonishing run to the last 8, but bear in mind that Ecuador was an even longer shot to make the cup Finals languishing outside of the top 64 teams in the world. Yes, if FIFA had done away with qualification and just taken the top 32 teams...even if they had held a separate consolation tournament for the next 32, Ecuador would STILL be sitting at home, pretty good especially given that they were one stoppage goal miracle for the Swiss away from the final 16 themselves.

Meanwhile here are our underachievers in chief

Serbia -50
El Salvador -54
Trinidad And Tobago/Haiti -55
Scotland/China -56
Syria -77

Serbia gets special mention as the World Cup team from 2010 that dropped the farthest (even though North Korea got eliminated first, they began their descent much sooner than the Serbs). The underwhelming North Americans were compensated for by one big overachiever (see the Costa Rica note). And Syria, well, technically they were eliminated for fielding an ineligible player, but I'd guess that civil war had a little something to do with their poor showing as well.

We believe it too Steven

Meanwhile Scotland and China have absolutely no excuses. They had money, they had time, they had organizations behind them and they crashed and burned. The tartan army was irrelevant after about half their matches, and dreams of China asserting their dominance have been pushed back another four years. (For the record though, I'm plumping for Steven Naismith to guide Scotland back)


So what does all this mean: simply this--as we get set to embark on another four year cycle of the World Cup and all the qualification falderal that goes along with it: do not forget the teams you don't see every day. Don't exclude teams that don't dominate the Champions league rosters or give extra favor to those who do (if that were the case, Serbia would be in and Costa Rica out...I think we're all grateful to watch Los Ticos rather than the Serbs). It's a long road to Moscow and you'll be consistently surprised along the way as some times rise and others fall.

Copper Bullets may be dreaming of a
different trophy...

Also it allows for some totally random and not at all viable predictions:
Whose in the same sweet spot that saw Ecuador and Costa Rica rise up? How about these names: Ireland, Zambia and Oman.
And as for the long shot set to emulate near misses Ethiopia, Lebanon and Iceland? Is it too early to think that Antigua and Barbuda or Malaysia could take that vital next step?
But the potential disasters in waiting? Well...it could be literally anyone...but I don't know...Turkey may be the next cautionary tale.

Happy Trails #43-33: So Close, Yet So Far

The final spot was booked, the full field is set, and the fearing and fretting has kicked into high gear before the World Cup Draw on Friday, December 6th.

We're exploring ways to cover the Draw live on the blog, and we'll make sure to include some more analyses of those teams who recently added their names to the roster before all that analysis is rendered utterly irrelevant by the actual draw.

But before we do any of that we should tip our hats in the direction of the last 11 teams to fall short of Brazil. In the last qualification round of our Happy Trails posts.

#43 La Revedere, Romania
Why they lost: After surviving the battle royale type scrum with Hungary and Turkey to snare second place. Romania ran into the Greek buzz saw. Losing the first leg 3-1 meant that, no matter how stout the back line of Razvan Rat and Vlad Chriches might get, it would take a bundle of goals to get ahead...a bundle of goals they did not have.

What we'll miss: The eternally appealing Romanian spinning soccer ball of death error message on our computer screens, plus occasional allusions to Georghi Hagi and Transylvania.


#42 Hej Da, Sweden
Why they lost: Cristiano Ronaldo. Wait, let me say that again as the Swedes will now say it: "Javla Cristiano Ronaldo". Shortly after Zlatan Ibrahimovic put the Swedes in the contest. Drew them even on aggragate with two masterful goals and appeared to have all the momentum going their way. Ronaldo scored twice to crush all of Solna under his, not inconsiderable boot.

What we'll miss: Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Who sounds like he could be a super hero or a Bond villain, and has an ego to match both of those personas and a talent that gets slightly less overblown media coverage than Ronaldo.

#41 Bless, Iceland

We're upset too Gylfi

Why they lost: They couldn't capitalize when it mattered the most. All square going into the second leg in Zagreb, Croatia. Iceland just needed stout defense and a single goal to win their first cup berth in decades worth of trying. Even after Mario Mandzukic struck to put the Croats ahead--when the home side went down to 10 men, Icelanders were entitled to some confidence. But the offense never materialized and a second Croatian goal sealed the deal.

What we'll miss: The slim, but palpable odds that Icelandic midfielder Gylfi Sigurðsson would not only guide his team to a victory or two in Brazil, but also finalize some sort of historic Brazilian-Icelandic fishing accord.

#40 Budte Zdorovi,  The Ukraine

Why they lost: Overconfidence maybe? The Ukrainians were ranked. The Ukranians were favored. The Ukrainians had a 2-0 lead going into France. But like Ireland 4 years before them, "The Team" was stunned at Saint-Denis, falling 3-0 and not even getting a shot at penalty kicks. Free travel tip to Mahamdou Sakho, don't plan on a tour of Crimea any time soon.

What we'll miss: Say what you will about Russian oligarchs, Ukranian oligarchs are just as crazy (and have a more onomatopoetically appealing ring to them). Better luck next time Petro Poroshenko, Pavlo Lazarenko and Sergiy Tigipko. There's always 2018.

#39 Senebti, Egypt
Why they lost: They lost 6-1 in Kumasi, Ghana during their first leg. Six goals to one. That was the ball game. Sure they won 2-1 at home in the second leg, but it would have taken a lot more from vets Amr Zaki and Gedo to make the difference, it just wasn't coming.

What we'll miss: Bob Bradley. The little appreciated national coach led Egypt to a 66% winning percentage over 2 years, during what was undoubtedly a challenging time for the nation, let alone the national side. Bradley got dumped, and we can only hope that some Egyptian smart aleck posted this question: ماذا عن بوب؟ (That's "What about Bob?" for those of you keeping track at home)

Okay, we won't whip towels, we promise

#38 Dehna Hunu, Ethiopia
Why they lost: As great a story as the Walia made, they just didn't have an answer for Nigeria's striking force, ceding two goal sat home and two goals on the road to turn a marvelous run into a marvelous moral victory.

What we'll miss: Sewnet Bishaw. I'm never going to get tired of cheering for the ex-gym teacher. Here's hoping we bump into you in a teacher's lounge sometime soon.

#37 M'asselema, Tunisia
Why they lost: The Eagles of Carthage had no luck at home and needed a result on the road in Cameroon to move on. Instead they got skunked 4-1. Though perhaps there was some Cape Verde jinx for sneaking into the third round based on disqualifications rather than stellar play.

What we'll miss: Talking about "The Eagles of Carthage" which is probably the best/most historically amusing nickname in all of African futbol. If she were alive today, Queen Dido would be proud (and probably stoned to death by some militant modern day Tunisians for fooling around with Aeneas)

#36 Si jaama, Senegal

Why they lost: I'm going to go ahead and blame Senegal themselves for this affair. Had they not thrown rocks, bottles and other projectiles at Ivory Coast back in October of last year they would have been able to host the second leg of this tie. Instead they had to play in Morocco and could only manage a draw in the biggest game for the country since the '02 cup.

What we'll miss: The sweetly simplistic Senegalese logo, which looks natural, artful, effortless and sincere. You know, all the things that Italian football isn't.

#35 Bilfu, Burkina Faso
Why they lost: The fastest rising stars in African Football, the Stallions of Burkina Faso finished second at this spring's African Cup of Nations. They had a lead over Algeria. They were on the verge of being a second debutante next year at Brazil, and yet it all came undone in a 1-1 draw, because in the 68th minute at Ouagadougou, Carl Medjani scored a second goal. That was Algeria's 2nd away goal. And though the teams finished level on total goals...the away goals were enough to determine that Algeria was a better team despite the fact they didn't beat Burkina Faso in either match. LOGIC!

What we'll miss: The simple joy of seeing a new team revel in the thrill of their first world cup. Sometimes there's no need for snark, just for satisfaction.

Jordan's national team is a step up here...

#34 Salaam, Jordan
Why they lost: Losing 5-0 at home was pretty much all that was required to spell the end of Jordan's run towards Brazil. Though they played more assertively in the second leg, they needed assertiveness more along the lines of "Hulk Smash" than "Hulk hold rival to a very defensively minded draw"

What we'll miss: The inevitable Nike cross-marketing promotion with Michael Jordan

#33 Aaroha Ni, New Zealand
Why they lost: Like Jordan, the Kiwis gave up 5 goals in the first leg (though thankfully on the road), but couldn't fare any better in the second leg than Jordan did. Proving that even the very best that Oceania has to offer is no match for a bedraggled and inconsistent Mexico.

What we'll miss: Tourism suggestions from Flight of the Concords

We know who's in, but do we know who will win? Yes...or rather, we know who will win our wildly inaccurate six month early predictions.

Stay tuned for those

Starting XI: Our Favorites for November

Hey, how convenient, I need a list of 11 things for this month's starting 11 and there are exactly 11 spots left in the World Cup! Why not talk about who we'd love to see win those spots--most especially the underdogs who deserve it most.

I've crossed all my fingers for these guys.

I. Ethiopia over Nigeria--I've been meaning to write a profile on Ethiopian futbol and just how much I love their underdog story for months and haven't done it yet...sorry boys...but take solace from the fact that if there's one team I really want to see in next year's cup it's you. From coach Senwet Bishaw's history as Phy Ed teacher, to the national passion for the game (with over 1,000 local clubs it's second only to Algeria in that number), to the fact that they started playing the cup back in 2011. At that time they were 139th in the world, they ranked behind Nepal...behind Kazakhstan...behind St. Kitts and Nevis...and yet, they are still alive and all those teams (not to mention about 92 others) are gone. On top of that, there's a chance to embarrass the increasingly autocratic Goodluck Jonathan!!

They need to win by 2 goals IN Nigeria...so it's going to take some doing, but never, never sleep on the Walia.

II. Ivory Coast over Senegal--Strange as it is for me to write in favor of the underdog, I've got to toss in two cents for Cote d'Ivoire on this one for a single simple reason: they're the best that Africa has to offer. Rated in the top 20 in the world, filled with a line-up of potent and powerful players, they should easily be in line for a spot at the Cup and another dark horse label as Didier Drogba makes one last go of it on the world's biggest stage.

They need a win, a draw or a loss by a single goal (in Casablanca, Morocco, since Senegal is barred from hosting matches) for certain qualification

III. Tunisia over Cameroon--Fond as I am of geopolitcal rationales for who I root for and who I don't, Tunisia's a pretty easy squad to praise. One of two remaining Arab Spring nations in the cup, they're the only Arab Spring nation to maintain the veneer of moderation (as shown by people of all belief systems being pissed at the ruling party). Give the Eagles of Carthage a chance to develop a new strain of nationalist pride by booking them a spot in Brazil.

Having drawn the first leg in Rades, Tunisia will need a result in Cameroon to move on.

Sorry Bob-o, I've got to go against
you here...

IV. Ghana over Egypt--I've been to Ghana. I've lived in Ghana. I nearly died in Ghana (a little melodramatic maybe...but it was malaria and I had to be dragged to a doctor...if I'd been more stubborn things could have ended badly). Me pe Ghana, paa paa paa. (Plus, any nation that plays Shania Twain in public spaces as much as Ghana does has a secret affinity for us Montanans)

They've got a 6-1 lead over Egypt...it would take a disaster, or a Bob Bradley sized miracle for Egypt to reverse that lead.

V. Burkina Faso over Algeria--The Burkinabe are one of only two teams left in African qualifying who have never made it before. But unlike the Ethiopians, the Stallions have been rising up the FIFA rankings for several years now. They're ahead of traditional powers Senegal and Cameroon. They're a darling in the making and send a squadron of players throughout Europe to ply their trade. Plus, manager Paul Put needs something to hang his hat on, other than the unfortunate homonym-name game with the Cambodian warlord.

They've got a 3-2 lead over Algeria (who had their shot in 2010), so here's hoping Les Stalon can hold on for a draw or better in Blida

VI. Iceland over Croatia--When Burkina Faso and Algeria kickoff, the first of Europe's decisive kickoffs will  be happening in Zagreb for the second and decisive leg of Iceland v. Croatia. It's pretty easy to say that our favorite is Iceland. The only potential debutante left in Europe's field, Strakarnir Okkar (Our Boys) started their qualifying campaign ranked 122nd in the world...now, they're 46th. In their way are the Blazers of Croatia who have bored me since 1998...I blame the ugly checks.

Iceland had a better qualifying campaign than Croatia, they've got a higher profile star in Tottenham's Gylfi Sigourson, but they open at home and will likely need a draw at least in Zagreb.

VI. Sweden over Portugal--You can root for Zlatan Ibrohimovic who did this:


Or you can root for Christian Ronaldo who does this:

Yup go with Sweden

Portugal's quadrennial underachievement in qualification has yet to come back to burn them. If Sweden wants to keep the Selacao back in Lisbon, they'll likely need to spread a weaker midfield with Kim Kalstrom and Sebastian Larson. A point in the first leg would be a huge help.

VIII. Greece over Romania
I was all set to root for Romania, a chance to revisit the glory days of Georgi Hagi and the wild color wheel of a badge, it would be perfect. But did you know that Greece is higher ranked than France, Croatia and the Ukraine? Did you know that, rather than embracing the violent Golden Dawn neo-nazi political party, Greek footie fans attack Golden Dawn headquarters? Can you imagine how much the Greek economy would be boosted by cheap knockoff soccer things? (Probably not enough to eliminate the deficit, but still, it's a step in the right direction!

Starting in Priaeus rather than Athens (you know with all the fire/riot issues), Greece will need to start out well and hold off Romania in Bucharest in the second leg.

IX. France over the Ukraine
Sure France is another irritating side, but how would Americans cope with a world cup without fish-in-a-barrell "cheese eating surrender monkey" jokes. If the Ukraine is the price we have to pay...that's a pretty easy decision.

This is one of the most tightly contested ties, but it ends in Saint-Denis home of famous French triumphs (the '98 Cup) and infamous French triumphs (the Hand of Frog).

X. Jordan over Uruguay
Two easy deciding factors here: Uruguay has Luis Suarez, easily my least favorite player on the planet (both for his behavior and for the Ghana quarterfinal three years ago), Jordan has never been to a World Cup. Without doubt, Uruguay should win...but just rooting for the people who should win is pretty darn dull.

It's vital that Jordan get off the mark strong at home in Amman, Uruguay will have to come to them from all around the world. The better the home score the more work Uruguay has to do back Montevideo a week later. A good home win could seal the upset over a flat and inconsistent Celeste squad.

XI. Mexico or New Zealand?
I've been going in the order of the games until now...because I genuinely have no idea who to root for here. Do you root for the Kiwis: the apple-cheeked underdogs who have the longest most inconvenient route to qualification (thanks a lot Pacific Ocean) and yet were a tremendous threat in South Africa helping to undo Italy's defense hopes (always good for some bonus points in our book). Or do you root for a team with a greater legacy, a greater history, a greater need for this trip after a tumultuous qualifying campaign (and a team who...if not in the cup will likely depress revenues, ratings and income for everyone associated with the tournament--that's not the point of the games of course, but it would be nice if people weren't calling it a flop before it ever started). I genuinely don't know: Chicharito or Shane Smeltz? Either team would be fun to root for...until they face the US.

Waning Seconds: Europe's a Mess

Sweet god, the final seconds of Panama and Mexico left me stunned.

Just as I resigned myself to a underwhelming Mexico settling into matches against New Zealand by default, Luis Tejeda pushed himself through a sloppy Mexican defense to score and put Panama and Honduras into fits of delight.

Four minutes later, Raul Jiminez, in his third minute of play, scored a scinitillating bicycle kick to retake the lead, revive El Tri's hopes and make any fan of futbol stand up and shout (even if you take a certain bizarre appreciation of Mexico's struggles). Suddenly you can see how scrappy, frantic and down right desperate the North American Goliath had become. Blood is drawn, the players wrassle up and down the pitch in frenzied efforts for Panama to get one more equalizer that never materizalized.

It's that kind of action that makes world cup qualifying exciting, that makes me want to watch well past 10 PM when I don't know or have a vested interest in either team. While I'll turn away from playoff baseball to watch it. That's just how fun it is.

And then I look at Tuesday's action and I think...please, let there be even one match with 5 minutes as good as the final 5 of Mexico/Panama.

Whether we get it or not, we got it Friday night, and Tuesday, a number of teams are going to get their own moments of glory. Here's how it sets up for the last day of group stage qualifiers.

CONCACAF/CONMEBOL

A brief update on the teams I wrote about last Thursday. Only Venezuela and Jamaica have been eliminated, and here's how it works out for those left.

IF Honduras beats or draws with Jamaica: They go to the World Cup

IF Honduras loses to Jamaica and Mexico beats Costa Rica (plus goal differential): Mexico goes to the World Cup, Honduras plays New Zealand in the playoffs

IF Honduras doesn't lose and Mexico wins/draws in Costa Rica: Honduras goes on, Mexico goes to the playoffs.

IF Mexico loses in Costa Rica and Panama beats the USA: Honduras goes in, Panama faces New Zealand, Mexico is out.

If Uruguay loses or draws to Argentina: Ecuador and Chile are in, Uruguay faces Jordan in the playoffs

If Uruguay beats Argentina, Chile or Ecuador lose their match and there's a swing in goal differential: Uruguay and the winner of Chile/Ecuador go to Brazil, the loser of Chile/Ecuador faces Jordan in the Playoffs.

UEFA

And  now...for the mess that is Europe...hey, look it's one of two phrases that appear both on my blog and in World Bank board rooms! (The other, of course, is 'Robert Mugabe's a tool')

Alive for an Automatic Berth

There are only four spots left, and mercifully it's easy enough to follow. 

Azerbaijan can't handle that...

In Group F Russia just needs a point in Azerbaijan to push themselves past Portugal. They've handled lesser squads on the road as easily as an oligarch handles obscene sums of cash.

In Group I Spain needs a point against Georgia to see off France. Georgia could have all of their nation, all of the state of Georgia and all of the intergalactic six-footed, speed-demons of Georgorious 7 and still be underdogs against Spain.

Group G gets a little more complicated. Bosnia/Herzegovina and Greece are dead even on points, with B/H at a staggering +23 goal differential and Greece at just +6. So Bosnia holds the tie breaker as they go to Lithuania and Greece hosts Lichtenstein. Greece needs a better result than B/H (a win rather than a draw, a draw rather than a loss), while the Golden Lilies can make it in with any equivalent result, so they might as well get a win to play it safe.

Hardest to figure out is Group H, England has the lead, but being England it's not that safe. They're only a point up on The Ukraine who is going to face San Marino. Yes, that San Marino. The San Marino that has mustered one goal in nine matches. The San Marino that wins about as often as someone's finger actually lands on San Marino when they spin a globe. Meanwhile, England faces Poland at home, a home match is nice, but they only drew with them before, with Ukraine guaranteed to beat San Marino, the three lions need a win.

Alive for a Playoff Spot

There are eight playoff spots up for grabs (which will eventually turn into four honest-to-goodness world cup berths).

However qualifying for one is tricky business. You don't just have to finish second, you have to finish as one of the eight best second place teams by having a good record against the top five teams in their group (because it would be unfair to count their matches against last place. Especially since Group I only has five teams. 

So to judge these odds, we need to use some inferential thinking.

We know that Sweden is in, and if we assume that Spain, Bosnia, and Ukraine do what they need to do (while England fails, like they usually do) then we can also book spots for France, Greece and England too [Technically Montenegro could qualify if they beat Moldova and San Marino beats Ukraine...and technically the US Congress is "working" right now]. That leaves us with 4 spots and 5 groups that will try to supply them.

Here's where things get tricky.

In order to qualify you need to have more points against the other top 4 teams in your group than at least one other 2nd place finisher. Lots of teams and groups could end up in that situation, but right now it seems most likely to land on Group B, where Bulgaria has just 7 points and beloved underdog Armenia has 9 points (after you take away their wins over Malta). Even if Bulgaria wins they end up with 10 points, Armenia could get as high as 12 if they pull off a miraculous win IN Italy (11 if they pull of a slightly less miraculous draw), but finishing 3rd or 4th is more likely. Denmark has the most likely route with a final game against Malta but even that should set them up with just 10 points...so let's call that our minimum number of points required.

Even if they can't pass Russia, Portugal should be already taken care of. Their worst case scenario is a Russia win, a loss to Luxembourg and a Northern Irish win. Even that would give them 12 points and keep them in front of Group B's runner up so again, they're safe.

Ditto Croatia, who's assured of 2nd place behind Belgium and should have 11 points regardless of whether Macedonia, Scotland or Wales finishes bottom of their table. (Ideally Scotland finishing bottom would help out the Croatians the most...to which I imagine most Scots would say, "HELL NO!")

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Iceland should be good to go if they beat Norway or just do better than Slovenia. But things aren't as rosy for the NZS. A win for Slovenia should seal their spot, but if they win 2nd by drawing in Switzerland and Iceland loses it may be all for naught since most of Slovenia's points come from whaling on Cyprus and they could end up with just 10 points, and be stuck arguing goal differential against the Danes or Bulgarians.

The most likely group (other than B) to wind up at the bottom of the runner's up table is Group D with it's three way battle for survival. With a win against a resilient Estonia, Romania should be 2nd place and safely into the playoffs. A loss for Romania and a win for Hungary over hapless Moldova (pretty likely) should give them second place, 11 points and safe passage into the playoffs Romania could be even better positioned A victory for Romania should have them dancing. Turkey's got the toughest route ahead, as a win is unlikely v.s. Holland so they'd need Estonia and Moldova to win in order to finish second. Of course, doing that puts them in the same position as the Slovenians, bickering over goal differential.

Most likely we'll end up with Russia, The Ukraine, Spain and Bosnia/Herzegovina going to Brazil, and Sweden, Greece, France, England, Porugal, Croatia, Iceland and Romania with Denmark being out of the money.