A Final Happy Trails Review

I posted this blurry, unsatisfying video that walked through all the teams that had been ousted, please spare me the singing critique that's not what this is about.
Instead let's look at the teams who did the best job of over/underperforming to their FIFA Ranking

To be  sure there are some flaws to my methods. I eliminated people chronologically, giving more credit to teams who powered through many rounds of difficult competition rather than those who ran up the score on the San Marino's of the world.

With that in mind, here are the top 5 over achievers club

Andorra + 112
Ethiopia +98
San Marino +84
Lebanon +82
Iceland +81

Everybody loves Gylfi

Okay, take out the "mathematical elimination in 2012 club" of Andorra and San Marino and you have three of the best stories of the tournament. Ethiopia (coached by a part-time high school gym teacher), Iceland (buoyed by one phenomenal Gylfi), and Lebanon (the only team in Asia to make it through three rounds of competition).

Here's our two best over acheivers of the finals themselves
Ecuador +51
Costa Rica +50

Yes Enner, I'm praising you again...

Not surprising that the Ticos were here given their astonishing run to the last 8, but bear in mind that Ecuador was an even longer shot to make the cup Finals languishing outside of the top 64 teams in the world. Yes, if FIFA had done away with qualification and just taken the top 32 teams...even if they had held a separate consolation tournament for the next 32, Ecuador would STILL be sitting at home, pretty good especially given that they were one stoppage goal miracle for the Swiss away from the final 16 themselves.

Meanwhile here are our underachievers in chief

Serbia -50
El Salvador -54
Trinidad And Tobago/Haiti -55
Scotland/China -56
Syria -77

Serbia gets special mention as the World Cup team from 2010 that dropped the farthest (even though North Korea got eliminated first, they began their descent much sooner than the Serbs). The underwhelming North Americans were compensated for by one big overachiever (see the Costa Rica note). And Syria, well, technically they were eliminated for fielding an ineligible player, but I'd guess that civil war had a little something to do with their poor showing as well.

We believe it too Steven

Meanwhile Scotland and China have absolutely no excuses. They had money, they had time, they had organizations behind them and they crashed and burned. The tartan army was irrelevant after about half their matches, and dreams of China asserting their dominance have been pushed back another four years. (For the record though, I'm plumping for Steven Naismith to guide Scotland back)


So what does all this mean: simply this--as we get set to embark on another four year cycle of the World Cup and all the qualification falderal that goes along with it: do not forget the teams you don't see every day. Don't exclude teams that don't dominate the Champions league rosters or give extra favor to those who do (if that were the case, Serbia would be in and Costa Rica out...I think we're all grateful to watch Los Ticos rather than the Serbs). It's a long road to Moscow and you'll be consistently surprised along the way as some times rise and others fall.

Copper Bullets may be dreaming of a
different trophy...

Also it allows for some totally random and not at all viable predictions:
Whose in the same sweet spot that saw Ecuador and Costa Rica rise up? How about these names: Ireland, Zambia and Oman.
And as for the long shot set to emulate near misses Ethiopia, Lebanon and Iceland? Is it too early to think that Antigua and Barbuda or Malaysia could take that vital next step?
But the potential disasters in waiting? Well...it could be literally anyone...but I don't know...Turkey may be the next cautionary tale.

Happy Trails #186 & 176 (Second Thoughts Edition)

I was all set to write about cinderella stories, and then I read the news that FIFA has decided to eliminate two teams, because--according to the official press releases--Sepp Blatter does what he wants to bitches!!

Seriously, there's no detail in either posting just: "TEAM X is hereby disqualified for violating Rule Y Subsection 43d. In accordance with FIFA regulations, this decision is binding and will not be subject to appeal or reversal, so suck on that."

As a result we have to make a couple quick corrections to the Happy Trails posts, and here they are

186 Ma'a As Salaamah Syria

Why They Lost: Yeah, remember when I said that Syria won the first leg 2-1 and the second leg 4-0? Yeah, what I meant to say was: "Tajikistan won both legs 3-0" Minor mistake I know...but, as you can tell...a pretty clear difference.

Who/What We'll Miss: I can't say for certain, but I'm pretty sure that this

George Mourad guy looks pretty good. I mean, he not only score a vital goal early in the first leg against Tajikistan, he also managed to change from Swedish to Syrian in just six short years! Or wait...you don't suppose that his doing that and failing to ask for FIFA's permission was the root cause of the whole problem do you?

176 Buh-Bye Bahamas

Why They Lost: They didn't. FIFA didn't even pretend they did. We all just looked up one morning and POOF no more Bahamas. The Press release from CONCACAF makes a little more sense: apparently the Bahamas FA built a beautiful new stadium, but forgot to build those pesky roads that would get fans TO said stadium. Once it became clear that they wouldn't be able to host any matches (or draw any revenue from said matches) the Bahamas became a whole lot less inclined to fly its team all around Central America just so that slightly bigger teams like Panama and Nicaragua could kick them around for 90 minutes. So, instead the team will sit back and enjoy the beautiful Bahamanian scenery.

Who/What We'll Miss: Not for nothing but the team captain's name is Happy Hall. If we picked the best players just by their name, he'd be a sure fire member of the squad. Also..to be sure, that stadium does look pretty sweet.

So there you go, two more teams bite the dust, and the Tajiks get a second chance. Next up we'll finally get around to celebrating the little minnows who can still dream of an utterly implausible World Cup berth. Assuming they don't forget a critical part of their infrastructure or accidently employ a psuedo-Swede.

AFC Cup 2011: A half-hearted/belated preview

Since the Asian Cup kicked off two days ago, I suppose I ought to point out precisely who is likely to win this and head on to the Confederations Cup in 2013.

Why? Because it's early January and there's NOTHING ELSE TO DO!

Let's lose Qatar (the deal with the Devil only won the them the world cup hosting, not actual talent), Syria (with only two stars left on their flag they only have so much collateral to trade with), North Korea (a change in management's always tough--for all his problems Kim Jong Il always got the red robot motivated) and much as it pains me to admit it: India. (Where the fans will be cheering right up until the cricket comes back on.

Just missing out on the out rounds we have Jordan (any non Michael form of "Jordan" can't win a title for fear of copyright infringement), Bahrain and the UAE (losing out of sympathy for their fellow obscenely wealthy Arab state: Qatar) and Kuwait...because I flipped a coin and they lost.

Ooops, Uzbekistan stayed alive until the knock out stage, but Japan will take care of that, while China crushes Saudi Arabia and moves wins the title of country that most frustrates Bill O'Rielly. On the other side of the draw, Australia and South Korea will run roughshod over Iraq and Iran because they'll be busy moping over their demotion on O'Rielly's list.

In the semifinals Australia will take China out for "a quick snort" the night before. Several hours and 22 lost pairs of pants later, a bedraggled/hungover China will be dumped from the tournament by a barely winded set of Socceroos. Meanwhile the Japanese and Koreans will do what they do best: hate eachother through a tense draw that ultimately results in a Korean victory.

The final on the 29th we'll have a rematch of a previous game between two group C rivals (as seen on January 14th). And under the blazing Qatari sun, a clear victor will emerge: and that victory will be....AUSTRALIA! (Because the crafty Aussies will spike their opponents Kim Chee...diabolic villainy...that's the Aussie way!)