Shooting From the Hip: AFC Second Round

You don't get far in this world playing it cautiously. It's as much a part of the Montana spirit as speed-limit free highways and sales-tax-free beef jerky.

So when it comes to predictions, I'll shoot from the hip. Take a chance when I'm not exactly sure. Be blunt and direct and optimistic when I can be.

The second round of Asian qualifying was announced on Tuesday, and while it won't start for another month and won't end for another year, I figured it was best to make predictions within 48 hours.

The nearly-year long second round, 8 groups of 5 will play home and away. The winners, and the top four runners up, will move on to the final round. (That's where your odds as one team in 2 groups of 6 get a heck of a lot better.)

So who will reach those lofty heights?

Group A: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, Timor-Leste, Malaysia
Winner: The Saudis have the higher profile and the richer pedigree, but the United Arab Emirates has had the better run of form lately. With probably the softest competition around them, I'd guess Zayed's Sons have the best chance.

Dark Horse: Set aside the geopolitical turmoil and the fact that their leaders seem hell bent on getting Israel kicked out of FIFA, but Palestine likely offers the best chance at an upset. A squad built on non-local players will never coalesce perfectly, but their familiarity with top flight squads (as seen in a trip to the the AFC Cup in January) will serve them well.
***
Group B: Australia, Jordan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Bangladesh
Winner: This isn't quite a tap-in for The Socceroos but it's close. One of the dominant sides in Asia will have no trouble handling the rivals, the only real match to watch will be against Jordan.

A Socceroo tap in

Dark Horse: Speaking of Jordan, "The Chivalrous" have a strong case to make as one of the top sides in West Asia. They've had great fortune against the lesser sides of Asia (which definitely includes the Bangladeshis, Tajiks and Kyrgyzseseses--okay the Kyrgyz no offense meant), and by cutting their teeth in an endless series of friendlies against higher profile foes they'll keep that strength, take their lumps against Australia and move along.
***
Group C: China, Qatar, Maldives, Bhutan, Hong Kong
Winner: Loathe as I am to give them any credit, Qatar has put just about everything they have into developing a team that will match their stadia by 2022. And in case you're wondering, yes that does include pressuring foreigners into service (including Frenchman Dame Traore, Ghanaian Mohammad Muntari and Brazilian Luiz Junior). A strong 2014 was undercut by a truly underwhelming performance in the Asian Cup, but I think they'll be under pressure to get close this cycle--so they don't become the first team since Italy in 1934--the second cup ever--to host a world cup without having played in one before.

Dark Horse: I'm absolutely drinking Bhutan's Kool-Aid, but I don't care. The low profile, lack of film, high altitude home matches and general "do you believe in miracles vibe" makes the land of the Thunder Dragon an easy squad to root for. In the end they'd need to take points at home against both China and Qatar and sweep all matches against Maldives and Hong Kong, but hey, crazier things have happened.
***
Group D: Iran, Oman, India, Turkmenistan, Guam
Winner: With or without the recently departed Carlos Quieroz, Iran's got too much talent to miss out in this group. A debacle during a penalty shoot out at the Asian Cup this January shouldn't distract from the fact that they were easy front runners at the tournament and should be for this one as well. If they put their minds to it, I'm sure that young striking talents like Sardar Azmoun and Karim Ansarfarid could find some salient suggestions for the nuclear deal too.

Go Go Guam!

Dark Horse: Much as I love plumping for India (where I lived and worked for a few years), the baffling dark horse to root for is Guam. The rare American protectorate that actually IS an underdog, Guam garnered big headlines when they drew at higher profile Singapore. A squad filled with American college kids and MLS developmental talents might not do much against even average Asian sides like a dangerous Omani crew. But they are the ultimate dark horse.
***
Group E: Japan, Syria, Afghanistan, Singapore, Cambodia
Winner: It will take a lot for any of these teams to meaningfully challenge Japan. The Blue Samurai got an excellent draw despite a lackluster World Cup and Asian Cup. Still, they're at the top of the Asian standings and even if they don't consistently bring back European based players they should be able to handle these qualification rivals.

Dark Horse: If one of the other four sides can put together a consistent run against the other three they could pull a surprise especially with other second-tier teams (and Japan) playing so inconsistently. At a guess, I'd put money on Singapore which boasts a young squad with some internationally based players and more who work together at Lions XII bringing cohesion and confidence into the mix (not to mention avoiding the ...but when you lose to Guam...my whole confidence is undermined.
***
Group F: Iraq, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Chinese Taipei
Winner: Credit where it's due, Iraq consistently makes the best of an unusual and often trying situation. They've played the top teams in Asia very closely and make a habit of taking lower-ranked rivals seriously. A few foreign based players (including the Columbus Crew's Justin Meram) show continued promise and growth.

From Left to Right: Chanathip Songkrasin and Kroekrit Thawikan

Dark Horse: The biggest challenge for Iraq will be the frequent long-distance hauls to South East Asia. So the question for a dark horse will be any team who can boast a difficult home environment (to steal a win against the favorites) and real sway over regional rivals. By that standard Thailand is your most likely nominee (just winning the South East Asia Suzuki Cup, boasting a young and growing squad, consistent at home), but that's not anything I'd wager heavily on.
***
Group G: Korea Republic, Kuwait, Lebanon, Myanmar, Laos
Winner: Korea is still one of the preeminent powers in Asian football, perpetual status as bridesmaid's not withstanding. Their growing influence in Europe doesn't hurt matters, world cup qualification is now expected and the rivals here won't slow that down.

Dark Horse: Right now the hottest team for fans of Asian underdogs is Bhutan, but Lebanon was pulling the Cinderella story during the 2014 cycle. They're back again against two teams they beat on the road during the last set of qualifiers, higher regarded Kuwait and Korea. Though it ended with whimper in the final round of qualifying, the Cedars stood tall, and while Kuwait's a more likely runner-up/qualifier. Lebanon is still where my loyalty lies.
***
Group H: Uzbekistan, Bahrain, Philippines, DPR Korea, Yemen
Winner: The Uzbeks have long been a favorite of this blog. After all there's a strong corps of players being augmented by solid youth talents from a growing domestic league. They were in the hunt for a World Cup Spot until the final weeks of the last cycle, and they played well in the Asian Cup this January. Sure their president might be a nut job who made his daughters pop stars, ambassadors, corporate honchos, heirs apparent to the presidency, and then (at least in one case) political prisoners. But still, how 'bout that team, eh?

At least he didn't name them manager

Dark Horse: Maybe it's that they're the only reasonable country in the group. Maybe it's that their nickname is "the Street Dogs". Maybe it's that I'm afraid of Manny Pacquiao. But I feel like the Philippines might be poised for a surprising finish. Bahrain and Korea are both on the slide and Yemen is in turmoil while the Philippines has seen steady results and, in goal keeper Neil Ethridge, boast the only Chelsea trainee in the whole group.

***
12 Teams advancing to third Round (** signifies Top 4 runner up)
UAE
Australia
**Jordan
Qatar
Iran
Japan
Iraq
**Thailand
South Korea
**Kuwait
Uzbekistan
**The Philippines

3 On/3 Off: Asian Cup Edition

So, I was back on schedule, and then...yeah.

We hereby return to our summaries and catch-up of notable (and not-so notable) tournaments starting with the first federation cup of the new cycle: the AFC Asian Cup

On: Tim Cahill (Soccer Legend)
Tim Cahill is to Australlian soccer what Bronco Nagurski is to American football.

That is all.

Off: Australian Fans (Geopolitical Novices)
I'm all for hospitality, but Australian fans took it to a new level expressing their affection for North Korea. The Red Robot wasn't too likely to have a lot of fans in the stands, but that's as much for it's systemic disadvantaging of citizens as it is due to the country's small population. Cheer how you want to Aussies...but just remember that one man's satire is a nut job despot's eternal devotion.

On: South Korea
The Taeguk Warriors are certainly disappointed to have been forced to settle for a fourth silver medal since their last trophy in 1960. (Their four bronzes over the same time don't help either). But set aside the final standings and you can see a dominant squad that only trailed for 45 minutes (the second half of the final) and still managed a stunning equalizer in stoppage time. The resilient South Koreans are certainly worthy of a trophy, and I have every confidence they'll be gunning for one sooner rather than later.
Off: Japan
Meanwhile, Korea's primary rival, Japan's Blue Samurai, were underwhelming, topping a middling Group D before being on the back foot for 74 minutes against the United Arab Emirates en route to their eventual ouster in the quarterfinals. Combine this lackluster showing with the fuzzy and unfocused runs in Brazil both last summer and the year before (at the Confederations' Cup) and Japan doesn't look terribly well prepared for the future.


On: Asia's "Perceived" Third Tier (Uzbekistan/UAE/China/Iraq)
Recent form suggested that China and Iraq had no shot at the second round and that the UAE and Uzbekistan were too unknown to thrive in a bigger tournament. At the end of the tournament Iraq and the UAE finished 3rd & 4th, while China and Uzbekistan topped a group featuring more recent World Cup qualifiers (North Korea/Saudi Arabia).

Off: Asia's "Perceived" Second Tier (Saudi Arabia/Oman/Jordan/Qatar)
The Saudi's remain Asia's most baffling squad, with a fine pedigree and minimal results. The other gulf states with rising standards and results (Oman, Jordan and Qatar)looked totally underwhelming en route to their own early exits. And while none conceded as many goals as debutants Palestine, their standards aren't to compete against Palestine...it's to compete against the other top teams in Asia.

Happy Trails #43-33: So Close, Yet So Far

The final spot was booked, the full field is set, and the fearing and fretting has kicked into high gear before the World Cup Draw on Friday, December 6th.

We're exploring ways to cover the Draw live on the blog, and we'll make sure to include some more analyses of those teams who recently added their names to the roster before all that analysis is rendered utterly irrelevant by the actual draw.

But before we do any of that we should tip our hats in the direction of the last 11 teams to fall short of Brazil. In the last qualification round of our Happy Trails posts.

#43 La Revedere, Romania
Why they lost: After surviving the battle royale type scrum with Hungary and Turkey to snare second place. Romania ran into the Greek buzz saw. Losing the first leg 3-1 meant that, no matter how stout the back line of Razvan Rat and Vlad Chriches might get, it would take a bundle of goals to get ahead...a bundle of goals they did not have.

What we'll miss: The eternally appealing Romanian spinning soccer ball of death error message on our computer screens, plus occasional allusions to Georghi Hagi and Transylvania.


#42 Hej Da, Sweden
Why they lost: Cristiano Ronaldo. Wait, let me say that again as the Swedes will now say it: "Javla Cristiano Ronaldo". Shortly after Zlatan Ibrahimovic put the Swedes in the contest. Drew them even on aggragate with two masterful goals and appeared to have all the momentum going their way. Ronaldo scored twice to crush all of Solna under his, not inconsiderable boot.

What we'll miss: Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Who sounds like he could be a super hero or a Bond villain, and has an ego to match both of those personas and a talent that gets slightly less overblown media coverage than Ronaldo.

#41 Bless, Iceland

We're upset too Gylfi

Why they lost: They couldn't capitalize when it mattered the most. All square going into the second leg in Zagreb, Croatia. Iceland just needed stout defense and a single goal to win their first cup berth in decades worth of trying. Even after Mario Mandzukic struck to put the Croats ahead--when the home side went down to 10 men, Icelanders were entitled to some confidence. But the offense never materialized and a second Croatian goal sealed the deal.

What we'll miss: The slim, but palpable odds that Icelandic midfielder Gylfi Sigurðsson would not only guide his team to a victory or two in Brazil, but also finalize some sort of historic Brazilian-Icelandic fishing accord.

#40 Budte Zdorovi,  The Ukraine

Why they lost: Overconfidence maybe? The Ukrainians were ranked. The Ukranians were favored. The Ukrainians had a 2-0 lead going into France. But like Ireland 4 years before them, "The Team" was stunned at Saint-Denis, falling 3-0 and not even getting a shot at penalty kicks. Free travel tip to Mahamdou Sakho, don't plan on a tour of Crimea any time soon.

What we'll miss: Say what you will about Russian oligarchs, Ukranian oligarchs are just as crazy (and have a more onomatopoetically appealing ring to them). Better luck next time Petro Poroshenko, Pavlo Lazarenko and Sergiy Tigipko. There's always 2018.

#39 Senebti, Egypt
Why they lost: They lost 6-1 in Kumasi, Ghana during their first leg. Six goals to one. That was the ball game. Sure they won 2-1 at home in the second leg, but it would have taken a lot more from vets Amr Zaki and Gedo to make the difference, it just wasn't coming.

What we'll miss: Bob Bradley. The little appreciated national coach led Egypt to a 66% winning percentage over 2 years, during what was undoubtedly a challenging time for the nation, let alone the national side. Bradley got dumped, and we can only hope that some Egyptian smart aleck posted this question: ماذا عن بوب؟ (That's "What about Bob?" for those of you keeping track at home)

Okay, we won't whip towels, we promise

#38 Dehna Hunu, Ethiopia
Why they lost: As great a story as the Walia made, they just didn't have an answer for Nigeria's striking force, ceding two goal sat home and two goals on the road to turn a marvelous run into a marvelous moral victory.

What we'll miss: Sewnet Bishaw. I'm never going to get tired of cheering for the ex-gym teacher. Here's hoping we bump into you in a teacher's lounge sometime soon.

#37 M'asselema, Tunisia
Why they lost: The Eagles of Carthage had no luck at home and needed a result on the road in Cameroon to move on. Instead they got skunked 4-1. Though perhaps there was some Cape Verde jinx for sneaking into the third round based on disqualifications rather than stellar play.

What we'll miss: Talking about "The Eagles of Carthage" which is probably the best/most historically amusing nickname in all of African futbol. If she were alive today, Queen Dido would be proud (and probably stoned to death by some militant modern day Tunisians for fooling around with Aeneas)

#36 Si jaama, Senegal

Why they lost: I'm going to go ahead and blame Senegal themselves for this affair. Had they not thrown rocks, bottles and other projectiles at Ivory Coast back in October of last year they would have been able to host the second leg of this tie. Instead they had to play in Morocco and could only manage a draw in the biggest game for the country since the '02 cup.

What we'll miss: The sweetly simplistic Senegalese logo, which looks natural, artful, effortless and sincere. You know, all the things that Italian football isn't.

#35 Bilfu, Burkina Faso
Why they lost: The fastest rising stars in African Football, the Stallions of Burkina Faso finished second at this spring's African Cup of Nations. They had a lead over Algeria. They were on the verge of being a second debutante next year at Brazil, and yet it all came undone in a 1-1 draw, because in the 68th minute at Ouagadougou, Carl Medjani scored a second goal. That was Algeria's 2nd away goal. And though the teams finished level on total goals...the away goals were enough to determine that Algeria was a better team despite the fact they didn't beat Burkina Faso in either match. LOGIC!

What we'll miss: The simple joy of seeing a new team revel in the thrill of their first world cup. Sometimes there's no need for snark, just for satisfaction.

Jordan's national team is a step up here...

#34 Salaam, Jordan
Why they lost: Losing 5-0 at home was pretty much all that was required to spell the end of Jordan's run towards Brazil. Though they played more assertively in the second leg, they needed assertiveness more along the lines of "Hulk Smash" than "Hulk hold rival to a very defensively minded draw"

What we'll miss: The inevitable Nike cross-marketing promotion with Michael Jordan

#33 Aaroha Ni, New Zealand
Why they lost: Like Jordan, the Kiwis gave up 5 goals in the first leg (though thankfully on the road), but couldn't fare any better in the second leg than Jordan did. Proving that even the very best that Oceania has to offer is no match for a bedraggled and inconsistent Mexico.

What we'll miss: Tourism suggestions from Flight of the Concords

We know who's in, but do we know who will win? Yes...or rather, we know who will win our wildly inaccurate six month early predictions.

Stay tuned for those

Starting XI: Our Favorites for November

Hey, how convenient, I need a list of 11 things for this month's starting 11 and there are exactly 11 spots left in the World Cup! Why not talk about who we'd love to see win those spots--most especially the underdogs who deserve it most.

I've crossed all my fingers for these guys.

I. Ethiopia over Nigeria--I've been meaning to write a profile on Ethiopian futbol and just how much I love their underdog story for months and haven't done it yet...sorry boys...but take solace from the fact that if there's one team I really want to see in next year's cup it's you. From coach Senwet Bishaw's history as Phy Ed teacher, to the national passion for the game (with over 1,000 local clubs it's second only to Algeria in that number), to the fact that they started playing the cup back in 2011. At that time they were 139th in the world, they ranked behind Nepal...behind Kazakhstan...behind St. Kitts and Nevis...and yet, they are still alive and all those teams (not to mention about 92 others) are gone. On top of that, there's a chance to embarrass the increasingly autocratic Goodluck Jonathan!!

They need to win by 2 goals IN Nigeria...so it's going to take some doing, but never, never sleep on the Walia.

II. Ivory Coast over Senegal--Strange as it is for me to write in favor of the underdog, I've got to toss in two cents for Cote d'Ivoire on this one for a single simple reason: they're the best that Africa has to offer. Rated in the top 20 in the world, filled with a line-up of potent and powerful players, they should easily be in line for a spot at the Cup and another dark horse label as Didier Drogba makes one last go of it on the world's biggest stage.

They need a win, a draw or a loss by a single goal (in Casablanca, Morocco, since Senegal is barred from hosting matches) for certain qualification

III. Tunisia over Cameroon--Fond as I am of geopolitcal rationales for who I root for and who I don't, Tunisia's a pretty easy squad to praise. One of two remaining Arab Spring nations in the cup, they're the only Arab Spring nation to maintain the veneer of moderation (as shown by people of all belief systems being pissed at the ruling party). Give the Eagles of Carthage a chance to develop a new strain of nationalist pride by booking them a spot in Brazil.

Having drawn the first leg in Rades, Tunisia will need a result in Cameroon to move on.

Sorry Bob-o, I've got to go against
you here...

IV. Ghana over Egypt--I've been to Ghana. I've lived in Ghana. I nearly died in Ghana (a little melodramatic maybe...but it was malaria and I had to be dragged to a doctor...if I'd been more stubborn things could have ended badly). Me pe Ghana, paa paa paa. (Plus, any nation that plays Shania Twain in public spaces as much as Ghana does has a secret affinity for us Montanans)

They've got a 6-1 lead over Egypt...it would take a disaster, or a Bob Bradley sized miracle for Egypt to reverse that lead.

V. Burkina Faso over Algeria--The Burkinabe are one of only two teams left in African qualifying who have never made it before. But unlike the Ethiopians, the Stallions have been rising up the FIFA rankings for several years now. They're ahead of traditional powers Senegal and Cameroon. They're a darling in the making and send a squadron of players throughout Europe to ply their trade. Plus, manager Paul Put needs something to hang his hat on, other than the unfortunate homonym-name game with the Cambodian warlord.

They've got a 3-2 lead over Algeria (who had their shot in 2010), so here's hoping Les Stalon can hold on for a draw or better in Blida

VI. Iceland over Croatia--When Burkina Faso and Algeria kickoff, the first of Europe's decisive kickoffs will  be happening in Zagreb for the second and decisive leg of Iceland v. Croatia. It's pretty easy to say that our favorite is Iceland. The only potential debutante left in Europe's field, Strakarnir Okkar (Our Boys) started their qualifying campaign ranked 122nd in the world...now, they're 46th. In their way are the Blazers of Croatia who have bored me since 1998...I blame the ugly checks.

Iceland had a better qualifying campaign than Croatia, they've got a higher profile star in Tottenham's Gylfi Sigourson, but they open at home and will likely need a draw at least in Zagreb.

VI. Sweden over Portugal--You can root for Zlatan Ibrohimovic who did this:


Or you can root for Christian Ronaldo who does this:

Yup go with Sweden

Portugal's quadrennial underachievement in qualification has yet to come back to burn them. If Sweden wants to keep the Selacao back in Lisbon, they'll likely need to spread a weaker midfield with Kim Kalstrom and Sebastian Larson. A point in the first leg would be a huge help.

VIII. Greece over Romania
I was all set to root for Romania, a chance to revisit the glory days of Georgi Hagi and the wild color wheel of a badge, it would be perfect. But did you know that Greece is higher ranked than France, Croatia and the Ukraine? Did you know that, rather than embracing the violent Golden Dawn neo-nazi political party, Greek footie fans attack Golden Dawn headquarters? Can you imagine how much the Greek economy would be boosted by cheap knockoff soccer things? (Probably not enough to eliminate the deficit, but still, it's a step in the right direction!

Starting in Priaeus rather than Athens (you know with all the fire/riot issues), Greece will need to start out well and hold off Romania in Bucharest in the second leg.

IX. France over the Ukraine
Sure France is another irritating side, but how would Americans cope with a world cup without fish-in-a-barrell "cheese eating surrender monkey" jokes. If the Ukraine is the price we have to pay...that's a pretty easy decision.

This is one of the most tightly contested ties, but it ends in Saint-Denis home of famous French triumphs (the '98 Cup) and infamous French triumphs (the Hand of Frog).

X. Jordan over Uruguay
Two easy deciding factors here: Uruguay has Luis Suarez, easily my least favorite player on the planet (both for his behavior and for the Ghana quarterfinal three years ago), Jordan has never been to a World Cup. Without doubt, Uruguay should win...but just rooting for the people who should win is pretty darn dull.

It's vital that Jordan get off the mark strong at home in Amman, Uruguay will have to come to them from all around the world. The better the home score the more work Uruguay has to do back Montevideo a week later. A good home win could seal the upset over a flat and inconsistent Celeste squad.

XI. Mexico or New Zealand?
I've been going in the order of the games until now...because I genuinely have no idea who to root for here. Do you root for the Kiwis: the apple-cheeked underdogs who have the longest most inconvenient route to qualification (thanks a lot Pacific Ocean) and yet were a tremendous threat in South Africa helping to undo Italy's defense hopes (always good for some bonus points in our book). Or do you root for a team with a greater legacy, a greater history, a greater need for this trip after a tumultuous qualifying campaign (and a team who...if not in the cup will likely depress revenues, ratings and income for everyone associated with the tournament--that's not the point of the games of course, but it would be nice if people weren't calling it a flop before it ever started). I genuinely don't know: Chicharito or Shane Smeltz? Either team would be fun to root for...until they face the US.

Waning Seconds: The AFC Playoff Picture

Okay, show of hands for how many people found this website by googling "AFC Playoff Picture" after the first weekend of the NFL season.

That's what I thought.

Still, you should stick around, because if there's one thing American sports fans like, it's a winner-take-all battle for supremacy: like the Superbowl, or the Spanish-American War.

On Tuesday it will be Jordan versus Uzbekistan live from Takshent, Uzbekistan...wait...wait...they're playing soccer...okay, now all the American football fans are gone.

Credit: AFP via FIFA

Server Likes Trophies

Still, that's okay because it should be a thrilling game in Takshent where two teams who have never reached this stage of the competition battle for a spot in the intercontinental final four play in games. Having drawn 1-1 in Amman, it's still anybodies match, but Uzbekistan will be considered slight favorites due to the away goal scored by Server Djeperov, the Korean based national team captain.

For those who aren't up to date on their Uzbeki soccer stars. Djeperov won the Asian player of the year award in 2008 and has been a fixture of the national side since 2006. While Uzbekistan gets a lot of (justly deserved) credit for being a team of young talents, Djeperov remains the group's obvious leader. And while he has done a fine job of bridging the gap to younger talents like forward Bahodir Nasimov, midfielders Odil Ahmedov and Sanzhar Tursunov and defenders Vitaly Denisov and Islom Tuktakhodjaev, there's a long way to go before the new guys can do it by themselves.

The Uzbek's biggest question mark heading into the home leg is goalie Murod Zukhurov who will be making just his fourth appearance for the national team at age 30. Long slotted behind Ignatiy Nesterov, Zurkhov has a chance to make a name for himself in the biggest way by pitching a clean sheet against Jordan and setting up a final push against whatever team CONMEBOL offers up.

Of course, shutting out the The Chivalrous (as Al-Nashama translates to) may be easier said than done. Needing at least a 2-2 draw to move forward automatically, Jordan will be throwing everything they have at the White Wolves (including the kitchen sink and maybe even Prince Ali bin al Hussein's private jet--the one they flew to Uzbekistan).

That's a happy Deeb

Better than jets and kitchen sinks will be the Jordanian forwards: Abdallah Deeb has been their most potent scoring option for the better part of the last six years, and at 26 is still the youngest regular forward on the team. But the reason Jordan's going to Uzbekistan with everything to play for is young midfielder Mossab al-Laham, who recently completed a one million dollar transfer to Saudi Arabia's SC Najran. At 22 (and already with 2 goals in just 10 caps), al-Laham should be a vital portion of Jordan's attack for a long time to come.

Al-Laham should keep learning his skills from team captain Amer Deeb, whose 123 caps are topped only by keeper Amer "The Whale" Shafia. And though the team has a relatively new manager in Hossam Hassan, you could hardly ask for a better guide to the world's brightest stage than Egypt's all-time leading goal scorer (especially since said leading goal-scorer supported Hosni Mubarak and probably ought to stay out of Egypt for a little while longer).

So, to sum up. Uzbekistan needs to keep the score low and will trust a rookie keeper to do it; Jordan needs a couple goals for sure and have experience both up top and in back to make it happen. And shoddy though the Jordanian's road record has been (0-4 in Group 4 play), the Uzbek's weren't lights out at home either (dropping 0-1 to Iran when direct qualification was almost within reach).

Much as I've been beating the drum of Uzbekistan as a dark horse special, I've got a bad feeling for the White Wolves and think that Jordan may be on the verge of springing a major upset. The beautiful thing is, the game is not in my mind it's on the pitch, so however it turns out, it should be exciting.

Oh and just in case you're an American who stuck it out this long waiting for the subject to change: take the Broncos, and Patriots for the bye, plus the Texans, Bengals, Steelers and miracle Chiefs--with the Broncs going to the Super Bowl...though unless Abdullah Deeb signs on to catch Peyton Manning's passes, I'm not that interested.

Waning Seconds: ASIA UPDATE!

A few weeks ago we ran down how every Asian team still had a chance to qualify for the world cup.

Yeah...that's not so much the case any more.

So here now is a run down on how it can play out tomorrow as three more tickets are punched for Brazil and one serious squabble is set for September.

First Match

Yup...it's adorable

Australia plays Iraq in Sydney in the first game of the day. The Iraqis must be disappointed not to parlay recent AFC success into a World Cup bid, but they could always settle for ruining the Socceroos day.

A win for Australia sees them straight to Brazil, anything less and they have to stay up late to see what happens between Oman and Jordan

Group A Simulcast

The most thrilling part of qualification is playing right in the midst of another match that could just as easily determine your destiny. That's the situation for South Korea, Iran and Uzebekistan (Qatar too...but they were left in the dust on the last match day so a four way battle is out of the question).

South Korea's goal is simplest. Get a point at home against Iran and you're going down South America way. Having won all their home tilts so far this campaign it seems likely.

Jon Snow is rooting for Uzbekistan

If South Korea does win, Uzbekistan can make history by winning their own match and vaulting the White Wolves into their first ever World Cup. But if they draw or lose, they'll have to face the third place finisher in Group B for the chance to face the fifth place team in South America for a spot in Brazil.

And, then again, Iran can screw everything up (after all, it is Iran). A win and they're in. A Uzbekistan draw or loss, and they're in. But if Iran wins mightily (like they did against Lebanon) and Uzbekistan wins mightily, then South Korea crashes down to third place. OR, if Iran draws and Uzbekistan wins mightily, then they Ayatollah's favored 11 have to do the 5th-place-playoff.

And just in case entry to the most prestigious tournament on the planet isn't enough drama for you, now the Koreans and Iranians are jawing at each other about "poor treatment" "humiliation" and subtle hints at match fixing...I'm guessing that match will have a little extra juice to it.

Final Match

The real thrill of the day comes at the end of the day in Amman, Jordan, but it depends largely on what happens in Australia six-and-a-half hours earlier.

When even a little soccer blog
takes potshots at you...you should
be sad

The visiting Red Warriors of Oman could easily settle for a draw to solidify their spot in third place/the fifth place playoff (a new record for their nation), especially if Australia wins in which case they couldn't do better than third anyway. But if the Socceroos fall, the door opens for Oman and a victory would set an even better new record: World Cup qualification. (An Australia draw plus a seven goal victory of Jordan would also see them through...but come on, there's a better chance of Keanu Reeves winning a Tony award than there is of that happening.)

The home team will be desperate for a win, as they need all three points just to move in to third (an Australia loss plus a highly unlikely 8 goal swing in goal differential is the only way they've got to get in directly).

So there it is, six teams are set to battle for three sure thing spots and two awkward third-place will-they-or-won't-they playoffs.

Waning Seconds: Asia

In just a little more than a week, the last matches of AFC qualifying will begin and we will start slotting our first, official, not-host-nation entrants into the World Cup. As we approach these crucial three weeks worth of games, it's worth noting that every team could still work their way into the cup. And so we present (from most likely to least likely) the scenarios for who will qualify from the AFC

Already Looking At Airfares

Japan (Remaining Matches (6/4--v. Australia; 6/11--@Iraq)

They Qualify If: They get 1 point from either remaining match

They Go to a Play-off If: They lose both matches and Jordan & Iraq win all remaining

They Stay Home Next Summer If: A giant prehistoric lizard thing rises up from the Pacific and decimates Tokyo 

THAT WAY TO BAGGAGE CLAIM!

Confederation champions, top of their group, persistent qualifiers and all around dominant force of Asian football, Japan really is pretty good to go. It would take a pair of crippling losses to Australia and Iraq coupled with Jordan and Australia winning out in huge fashion to knock them down to the play-in games. (Since Jordan and Australia play eachother on June 11th, they'll have to do something pretty fancy in order to both win.) Realistically, if you love Japanese football, you can start booking plane tickets, pricing thongs, stocking up on sunscreen and taking Samba lessons because barring a total disaster, you're going to Brazil next summer.

A Game in Hand is Worth Two in the Bush...or Table Or Something

Right next to Japan in the pantheon of Asian football powers, South Korea and Australia are pretty solid bets for any World Cup now-a-days. And though neither are at the top of their qualifying tables, both have three games left to gain points and get into the final round of competition.

South Korea (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Lebanon; 6/11--v. Uzbekistan; 6/18--v. Iran])

They Qualify IF: They get a couple wins in their last matches

They go to Play-off IF: They get three points

They Stay Home Next Summer IF: Kim Jong Un gets an itchy trigger finger

All South Korea really needs is a point from each of their three final matches (@ Lebanon and home for Uzbekistan and Iran) and they're golden. Well...actually, all South Korea needs is a point from each of  their final three matches AND somebody to eliminate all the nukes in North Korea and they're golden. And hey, hit four points and you don't even need to worry about the continental play-off.

Australia (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Japan; 6/11--v. Jordan; 6/18--v. Iraq])
They Qualify IF: They meet expectations
They go to Play-off IF: They continue to underwhelm
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: The wheels fall off the wagon, the shrimp fall off the barbi, and the Fosters plant moves to Holland.

Things are slightly trickier for the Socceroos who have to start with Japan (in a definite struggle that might see them slip out of even third place). But their final two matches (at home versus Jordan [who can't win away from Amman] and Iraq [already beaten by Australia]) offer plenty of points to a merely competent Australian squad.

"Donnie, You're Out of Your Element!"

Unlike the first three teams I wrote about, Uzebekistan and Jordan would be big dance debutants should their current positions hold. But they have one less game to play than their more experienced rivals, and they have little control over what really happens.

Uzbekistan (Remaining Matches [6/11--@South Korea; 6/18 v. Qatar])

Do you recognize these men?

They Qualify IF: The young guns like Sanzhar Tursunov and Farhod Tojiyev pull out at least one big win.
They go to Play-off IF: The old timers like Server Djeparov and Timur Kapadze refuse to let a great start go wrong and get at least a point from each match.
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: All the players want to avoid awkward mispronunciations of their names on international television and they tank the last couple matches

Uzbekistan's youth program has been impressive of late and may make for a compelling dark horse in Brazil. But to get there they'll likely need at least three points to put themselves in the playoffs, and rather than banking on a win in Seoul on the 11th, they'll likely gear up for a more winnable match against Qatar in Tashkent on the 18th.

Jordan (Remaining Matches [6/11--@ Australia; 6/18--v.s. Oman
They Qualify IF: They finally pack their A-Game on the road and defend home turf (as usual)
They go to Play-off IF: They defend home but continue to scuffle on the road.
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They scuffle both home and away.

Meanwhile Jordan's Al-Nashama (The Chivalrous) have a more closely packed group with three teams behind them, all within two points of second place. Having failed to get a single point on the road in this group, Jordan has to head for Melbourne on the 11th, before closing out with Oman on the 18th. To be fair, the Socceroos have drawn both of their home ties this campaign, so a point in Melbourne isn't out of the question, but if The Chivalrous want to make King Abdullah proud, they definitely need the win in Amman (and then hope for a fair shot in the continental play-offs)

Literally...Everything to Play For

Iran (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Qatar; 6/11--v. Lebanon; 6/18--@ South Korea])
They Qualify IF: They want to live like heroes
They go to Play-off IF: They want to live
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They want to live like heroes of a revolution

Iran has a long and storied history in international football (like Japan, South Korea and Australia); they also have three games still to play (like South Korea and Australia), but they have a slightly more challenging task ahead of them. They're already 3 points back of South Korea, and need multiple results in their favor to pull ahead of Uzbekistan. They have to face the two underdog teams in Lebanon and Qatar whose whole campaigns hinge on beating Team Melli, before finishing IN South Korea.

Khameni prefers a 4-3-4

Then there's this: Iran's presidential election is scheduled for June 14th (between the Lebanon and South Korean matches). It will be the first election in Iran since the Arab Spring and the Green Revolution that threatened full scale rebellion during the last election (2009). Mahmoud Ahmadinijad will not be running. The Aytollah has blocked genuine reformers including former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani from candidacy. And the national team includes Masoud Shojaei and Captain Javad Nekounam who both suddenly "retired" after supporting the Green Revolution protestors publicly during their last qualifying campaign. Add to all of this the fact that qualifying for the World Cup is a welcome distraction from domestic troubles, but failing to qualify for the World Cup kind of, sort of, endangers really any ruling party in any country anywhere.

SO! If Iran beats Qatar and Lebanon, not only will they qualify for at least the continental play-offs, but the elections likely go off without a hitch, protecting players for another year or more and installing another hardline reformer who follows the will of the Ayatollahs. If Iran drops either or (inshallah) BOTH games, the populace (particularly young men with nothing better to do) will likely be dissatisfied, the elections are jeopardized and Shojaei and Nekounam (plus any other idealistic young athletes) have to face the awkward decision of whether they stand up with their fellow citizens and risk expulsion from the team [again] OR if they shut up and play out the string as their country roils from the inside out.

That's a little bit of pressure, wouldn't you say?

Clinging to the Cliff Face

I kind of want in on this party!

Oman (Remaining Matches [6/4--v.s. Iraq; 6/18--@Jordan])
They Qualify IF: They dominate their last two opponents and run up the goal differential
They go to Play-off IF: They just take care of business
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They decide they don't want to allow jabronis around the world to shout "Oh, man! Oman lost again!" and throw the last two matches

As we noted with Jordan, there are four teams bunched within 2 points of each other. And all that comes to a head when Iraq and Oman square off in Muscat on the 4th of June. A win for Oman and they can write their own ticket, they'll be just a point in Jordan away from a minimum 3rd place finish. 

Iraq (Remaining Matches [6/4--@Oman; 6/11--v.s. Japan; 6/18@Australia])
They Qualify IF: They rule and their opponents drool.
They go to Play-off IF: They do well and their opponents do slightly less well...
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They are average and their opponents are a little better than that.

Meanwhile, a win for Iraq puts the recent Asian title holders on a brutal final set of matches, at home versus Japan and in Australia. Best case scenario: Iraq beats Oman while Japan wraps up their qualifying with a win over Australia. Then Japan rests their stars allowing Iraq an easy three points in the second match, setting up a decisive final match against Australia (who pull a measly draw with Jordan in their second match), with momentum going all the way of the Lions of Mesopotamia. Worst case scenario: literally anything else happens.

Qatar (Remaining Matches [6/4--v. Iran; 6/18--@Uzbekistan])
They Qualify IF: They shock they world
They go to Play-off IF: They mildly surprise the world
They Stay Home Next Summer IF:  They totally underwhelm the world

And then there's Qatar the little nation that wants so badly to prove they aren't the corrupt ne'er-do-wells who swiped away the 2022 World Cup from other countries. Their chance to prove exactly that starts on the 4th in Doha where a win over Iran would go a long way to improving their odds (and ruining Iran's). Provided that Iran and Uzbekistan scuffle in their June 11th matches (against Lebanon and South Korea respectively) that sets the stage for Qatar to slip in if they win big in Uzbekistan on the 18th.

Slim To None

Lebanon (Remaining Matches [6/4--v.South Korea; 6/11--@Iran])
They Qualify Directly IF: They refuse to lose and other teams refuse to win
They go to Play-off IF: They refuse to lose and one team stubbornly meets expectations
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They accept their own limitations and find satisfaction in their accomplishments to this point.

We've been driving the Lebanon bandwagon for over a year and a half now. But there is only one path that can get our beloved Cedars into a qualifying scenario. They need to win their last two matches: against South Korea in Beirut and at Tehran and then hope that Qatar and Iran draw their own match (June 4th during the South Korea game) and lose/draw the rest of the way.

Any outright victory for either the Qatari or the Iranians and Lebanon would have to get a massive swing in goal differential, or a horrific plague of gout in the other countries...so, better win now.

Those are all the ways that Asian qualification could end. And while we would love to see Japan, Australia, South Korea, and the Uzbeks make it in (with Lebanon squeaking into the intercontinental playoffs) We have to admit, it's a tetchy possibility at best. 

One thing's for sure. Monday Morning Futbol is going to be a whole lot of fun for the next three weeks.

AFC Cup Outrounds!

It's crunch time in Qatar and no...I'm not referring to the home stretch of a camel race. Today begins the out rounds of the AFC cup, and shockingly, for someone with absolutely no experience, I did pretty well on my predictions of the quarter finalists.

Japan, Uzbekistan, Australia, South Korea, Iran and Iraq all came through for me, with only China and Saudi Arabia (who fired two coaches in three matches) falling short. So the new darlings are Jordan and...yup...Qatar. I'm wondering if they're winning through illegality or through sheer antagonism towards the rest of the world.

If you've watched any of the highlights (Click here if you're interested) you may well have noticed the somewhat...generally...shall we say..."sparse" crowds at the matches. That's too kind: there are literally HUGE SWATHS of seats available at these games. Seriously, I've seen larger crowds at Craig Kilborn Fan Fests. My brother's high-school games were more attended than these matches...and they played in Bozeman...in November...after shoveling snow off the field.

So, hey, if you want to go on vacation and see some international soccer in the lap of luxury: Qatar's the way to go. (It'll be easier now than in 11 years anyway).

We'll be back in a few days to check on the semi's which will have at least one starry-eyed dreamer playing with the World Cup perennials. (Good luck surviving that one Uzbekistan/Jordan)

AFC Cup 2011: A half-hearted/belated preview

Since the Asian Cup kicked off two days ago, I suppose I ought to point out precisely who is likely to win this and head on to the Confederations Cup in 2013.

Why? Because it's early January and there's NOTHING ELSE TO DO!

Let's lose Qatar (the deal with the Devil only won the them the world cup hosting, not actual talent), Syria (with only two stars left on their flag they only have so much collateral to trade with), North Korea (a change in management's always tough--for all his problems Kim Jong Il always got the red robot motivated) and much as it pains me to admit it: India. (Where the fans will be cheering right up until the cricket comes back on.

Just missing out on the out rounds we have Jordan (any non Michael form of "Jordan" can't win a title for fear of copyright infringement), Bahrain and the UAE (losing out of sympathy for their fellow obscenely wealthy Arab state: Qatar) and Kuwait...because I flipped a coin and they lost.

Ooops, Uzbekistan stayed alive until the knock out stage, but Japan will take care of that, while China crushes Saudi Arabia and moves wins the title of country that most frustrates Bill O'Rielly. On the other side of the draw, Australia and South Korea will run roughshod over Iraq and Iran because they'll be busy moping over their demotion on O'Rielly's list.

In the semifinals Australia will take China out for "a quick snort" the night before. Several hours and 22 lost pairs of pants later, a bedraggled/hungover China will be dumped from the tournament by a barely winded set of Socceroos. Meanwhile the Japanese and Koreans will do what they do best: hate eachother through a tense draw that ultimately results in a Korean victory.

The final on the 29th we'll have a rematch of a previous game between two group C rivals (as seen on January 14th). And under the blazing Qatari sun, a clear victor will emerge: and that victory will be....AUSTRALIA! (Because the crafty Aussies will spike their opponents Kim Chee...diabolic villainy...that's the Aussie way!)