Shooting From the Hip: AFC Second Round

You don't get far in this world playing it cautiously. It's as much a part of the Montana spirit as speed-limit free highways and sales-tax-free beef jerky.

So when it comes to predictions, I'll shoot from the hip. Take a chance when I'm not exactly sure. Be blunt and direct and optimistic when I can be.

The second round of Asian qualifying was announced on Tuesday, and while it won't start for another month and won't end for another year, I figured it was best to make predictions within 48 hours.

The nearly-year long second round, 8 groups of 5 will play home and away. The winners, and the top four runners up, will move on to the final round. (That's where your odds as one team in 2 groups of 6 get a heck of a lot better.)

So who will reach those lofty heights?

Group A: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, Timor-Leste, Malaysia
Winner: The Saudis have the higher profile and the richer pedigree, but the United Arab Emirates has had the better run of form lately. With probably the softest competition around them, I'd guess Zayed's Sons have the best chance.

Dark Horse: Set aside the geopolitical turmoil and the fact that their leaders seem hell bent on getting Israel kicked out of FIFA, but Palestine likely offers the best chance at an upset. A squad built on non-local players will never coalesce perfectly, but their familiarity with top flight squads (as seen in a trip to the the AFC Cup in January) will serve them well.
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Group B: Australia, Jordan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Bangladesh
Winner: This isn't quite a tap-in for The Socceroos but it's close. One of the dominant sides in Asia will have no trouble handling the rivals, the only real match to watch will be against Jordan.

A Socceroo tap in

Dark Horse: Speaking of Jordan, "The Chivalrous" have a strong case to make as one of the top sides in West Asia. They've had great fortune against the lesser sides of Asia (which definitely includes the Bangladeshis, Tajiks and Kyrgyzseseses--okay the Kyrgyz no offense meant), and by cutting their teeth in an endless series of friendlies against higher profile foes they'll keep that strength, take their lumps against Australia and move along.
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Group C: China, Qatar, Maldives, Bhutan, Hong Kong
Winner: Loathe as I am to give them any credit, Qatar has put just about everything they have into developing a team that will match their stadia by 2022. And in case you're wondering, yes that does include pressuring foreigners into service (including Frenchman Dame Traore, Ghanaian Mohammad Muntari and Brazilian Luiz Junior). A strong 2014 was undercut by a truly underwhelming performance in the Asian Cup, but I think they'll be under pressure to get close this cycle--so they don't become the first team since Italy in 1934--the second cup ever--to host a world cup without having played in one before.

Dark Horse: I'm absolutely drinking Bhutan's Kool-Aid, but I don't care. The low profile, lack of film, high altitude home matches and general "do you believe in miracles vibe" makes the land of the Thunder Dragon an easy squad to root for. In the end they'd need to take points at home against both China and Qatar and sweep all matches against Maldives and Hong Kong, but hey, crazier things have happened.
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Group D: Iran, Oman, India, Turkmenistan, Guam
Winner: With or without the recently departed Carlos Quieroz, Iran's got too much talent to miss out in this group. A debacle during a penalty shoot out at the Asian Cup this January shouldn't distract from the fact that they were easy front runners at the tournament and should be for this one as well. If they put their minds to it, I'm sure that young striking talents like Sardar Azmoun and Karim Ansarfarid could find some salient suggestions for the nuclear deal too.

Go Go Guam!

Dark Horse: Much as I love plumping for India (where I lived and worked for a few years), the baffling dark horse to root for is Guam. The rare American protectorate that actually IS an underdog, Guam garnered big headlines when they drew at higher profile Singapore. A squad filled with American college kids and MLS developmental talents might not do much against even average Asian sides like a dangerous Omani crew. But they are the ultimate dark horse.
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Group E: Japan, Syria, Afghanistan, Singapore, Cambodia
Winner: It will take a lot for any of these teams to meaningfully challenge Japan. The Blue Samurai got an excellent draw despite a lackluster World Cup and Asian Cup. Still, they're at the top of the Asian standings and even if they don't consistently bring back European based players they should be able to handle these qualification rivals.

Dark Horse: If one of the other four sides can put together a consistent run against the other three they could pull a surprise especially with other second-tier teams (and Japan) playing so inconsistently. At a guess, I'd put money on Singapore which boasts a young squad with some internationally based players and more who work together at Lions XII bringing cohesion and confidence into the mix (not to mention avoiding the ...but when you lose to Guam...my whole confidence is undermined.
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Group F: Iraq, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Chinese Taipei
Winner: Credit where it's due, Iraq consistently makes the best of an unusual and often trying situation. They've played the top teams in Asia very closely and make a habit of taking lower-ranked rivals seriously. A few foreign based players (including the Columbus Crew's Justin Meram) show continued promise and growth.

From Left to Right: Chanathip Songkrasin and Kroekrit Thawikan

Dark Horse: The biggest challenge for Iraq will be the frequent long-distance hauls to South East Asia. So the question for a dark horse will be any team who can boast a difficult home environment (to steal a win against the favorites) and real sway over regional rivals. By that standard Thailand is your most likely nominee (just winning the South East Asia Suzuki Cup, boasting a young and growing squad, consistent at home), but that's not anything I'd wager heavily on.
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Group G: Korea Republic, Kuwait, Lebanon, Myanmar, Laos
Winner: Korea is still one of the preeminent powers in Asian football, perpetual status as bridesmaid's not withstanding. Their growing influence in Europe doesn't hurt matters, world cup qualification is now expected and the rivals here won't slow that down.

Dark Horse: Right now the hottest team for fans of Asian underdogs is Bhutan, but Lebanon was pulling the Cinderella story during the 2014 cycle. They're back again against two teams they beat on the road during the last set of qualifiers, higher regarded Kuwait and Korea. Though it ended with whimper in the final round of qualifying, the Cedars stood tall, and while Kuwait's a more likely runner-up/qualifier. Lebanon is still where my loyalty lies.
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Group H: Uzbekistan, Bahrain, Philippines, DPR Korea, Yemen
Winner: The Uzbeks have long been a favorite of this blog. After all there's a strong corps of players being augmented by solid youth talents from a growing domestic league. They were in the hunt for a World Cup Spot until the final weeks of the last cycle, and they played well in the Asian Cup this January. Sure their president might be a nut job who made his daughters pop stars, ambassadors, corporate honchos, heirs apparent to the presidency, and then (at least in one case) political prisoners. But still, how 'bout that team, eh?

At least he didn't name them manager

Dark Horse: Maybe it's that they're the only reasonable country in the group. Maybe it's that their nickname is "the Street Dogs". Maybe it's that I'm afraid of Manny Pacquiao. But I feel like the Philippines might be poised for a surprising finish. Bahrain and Korea are both on the slide and Yemen is in turmoil while the Philippines has seen steady results and, in goal keeper Neil Ethridge, boast the only Chelsea trainee in the whole group.

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12 Teams advancing to third Round (** signifies Top 4 runner up)
UAE
Australia
**Jordan
Qatar
Iran
Japan
Iraq
**Thailand
South Korea
**Kuwait
Uzbekistan
**The Philippines

Happy Trails #191-177 (AFC Rd. 2)

Before we look ahead to the next set of matches kicking off in early September, let's pour one out for the teams who have fallen out of the competition.

191 Sok Dee Der Laos

Why they lost: Perhaps I put a bit of a jinx on Thim Xad by giving them the recognition of being the first "Well I'll Be Damned" Award. Perhaps the Laotian sport press was right that the team was weak in defense. Perhaps the Chinese national team was a little tougher than the Cambodian one. What ever the case, conceding 13 goals in two matches rarely works out well, and definitely led to the Laos loss.

Who/What we'll miss: A great Cinderella/scrappy underdog story would have been awesome--hence the whole post that I wrote about them...not to mention crushing Chinese hopes. Ah well...better luck next time.

190 Namaste Nepal

Why they lost: The Gorkha Warriors were another team that couldn't quite keep pace with a bigger, stronger Asian power, falling to Jordan 10:1 on aggregate. But they did pull together an excellent second leg, getting a 1:1 draw that was a small comfort after a 9:0 drubbing in Aman.

Who/What we'll miss: The big name in Nepal is Rohit Chand, a 19 year old center back who has been pumped up as a player good enough to make it in the upper echelons of Europe. Wikipedia claims that he's getting a shot with Kettering Town FC in England's 5th tier, which might make him easier to scout than if he was in...say...Kathmandu.

189 Joigin Hong Kong

Why they lost: While Laos gave up goals, they did score a few. The same can't be said for Hong Kong who were blanked by a Saudi Arabian team that has been in the midst of a tumultuous year.

Who/What we'll miss: Hopefully nothing. We'll hope that this is Hong Kong's nadir, 25 years after almost qualifying for Mexico '86. Though they've made less progress in each subsequent Cup campaign, this should be the end of that unfortunate trend.

188 Jakshy Kalyngydzar Kyrgyzstan

Why they lost: I might place the explanation for this one on facing an up-and-coming opponent in an Uzbekistani side that made the out rounds at the Asian Cup, and seemed dangerous at the U-20 Tournament in Colombia. Facing that, it's gotta be tough for Kyrgyzstan to keep up. So their 7 goal wipe-out makes a little more sense.

Who/What we'll miss: Confusing attempts to settle on one nickname for a side that is occasionally called the "snow leopards", The Eagles, and the Blue Eagle (even though their kits are red).

187 Dhanee Maldives

Why they lost: Take your pick. No goals, giving up 5, having to make do with a team of locally based players while facing an Iranian side that's one of the most well-established in Asia, having a population approximately .5% of Iran's. Any one of those would probably explain the Red Snapper's failure to advance.

Who/What we'll miss: Ali Ashfaq, a man called "The Best Striker in South Asia" isn't well known outside his own country--but when you captain the national side and celebrate like this...you should be.

186 To Bozdid Tajikistan

Why they lost: Though a 2:1 loss in Syria was a tough beat, the series still could have gone the Tajiks way. But a stunning 4:0 loss at home knocked them out. If you can't defend your home pitch, you can't go far in qualifying.

Who/What we'll miss: Coach Pulod Kodirov, the winningest coach in history for "The Persian Lions" of the national team won't get any more matches to prove his bowing out after 3 years in charge of the team. (Of course, if you ask Tajik fans, that might be a good thing)

185 Paalam The Philippines

Why they lost: A 3-0 loss in Kuwait gave them a major task for the home-leg, and they simply couldn't make it up falling 2-1 at home to finish 4 goals out.

Who/What we'll miss: Hard to pick. There's Midfielder Simon Greatwitch who could help Hartwick college known for something more than...okay he could help Hartwick College be known. Then there's Neil Ethridge, Fulham's Reserve Goalkeeper and ex-Chealsea trainee. And of course...there's the fact that their nickname is "The Street Dogs" which is a kind of badass in an adorably scruffy way.

184 Thwa Dau Me Myanmar

Why they lost: You mean besides the fact that their military junta creates a national atmosphere of blind fear and anxiety which makes playing a children's game one of the few escapes...unless you play for the national team and must face the spectre of bringing shame on the nation and being sent for "re-education"? Well, their fans throwing garbage on the field at half-time during the home-leg probably didn't help matters--especially since refs cancelled the second half and Myanmar's last chance at a comeback.

Who/What we'll miss: The feeling that maybe, just maybe watching 22 men kick a ball for 90 minutes might distract the citizens of Myanmar from that aforementioned military junta.

183 Phir Milenge India

Why they lost: It's either because of FIFA's ancient curse against the country that declined to play in the 1950 World Cup (What do you mean we can't play barefoot?) or the fact that, as children, Sachin Tendulkar & MS Dhoni picked up cricket bats instead of cleats.

Who/What we'll miss: An inevitable Bollywood soccer movie with a star studded song and dance number...wait...there already are some like that...well, I know what's going into my Netflix queue.

182 Selamat Tinggal Malaysia

Why they lost: After a thrilling 5-3 loss in Singapore in the first leg, Malaysia had some work to do, but 3 away goals to help their cause. If they won by two they would be in pretty good position for advancement. While they led 1-0 after 60 minutes and were one goal (and solid defnese) away from moving on a Singapore equalizer in the 73rd minute knocked them out

Who/What we'll miss: The Malay Tigers might have my new favorite football kit. As if the black and yellow stripes weren't unusual enough--they also have an ad campaign that makes it painfully clear that you're either a Malaysian fan or you are unwilling to rip your own skin off.

181 Tam Biet Vietnam

Why they lost: Despite a thrilling 2-1 win at home in the second leg, Vietnam simply couldn't overcome a 3-0 loss in Qatar in the first leg. Meaning that, once again, the Qataris crush the dreams of other people (FIST SHAKE!)

Who/What we'll miss: A pretty solid underdog story is one thing. A pretty solid underdog story that could have knocked out the internationally mocked Qatari side...that's a great thing.

180 Bhalo Thakben Bangladesh

Why they lost: Like Vietnam, Bangladesh got a great win at home 2-0 over Lebanon. Like Vietnam, Bangladesh couldn't overcome a big loss (4-0) in the first leg.

Who/What we'll miss: The chance for a doggie fight between Bangladesh and the Phillipines (don't bet against the street dogs)

179 Ila Al-Liqa Yemen

Why they lost: Continuing the trend of the last two teams, Yemen played better in the second leg, with a goalless draw; but they lost 2-0 in Iraq and head home despite their fine performance.

Who/What we'll miss: Yemen has won fewer games by smaller margins in each consecutive World Cup qualifying campaign. So, hopefully we'll only miss them until they reorganize their team and reverse that trend.

178 Ila Al-Liqa Palestine

Why they lost: I know Grant Wahl meant well, but clearly this is another case of the Sports Illustrated Jinx. After a nailbiting 1-0 loss in Thailand, Palestine nearly pulled a stunner in the second-leg back home but had to settle for a 2-2 draw against a higher ranked team. That was great--but if SI hadn't been there?

Who/What we'll miss: A team full of college kids, biologists, and dreamers who play international football in their spare time after work? We'll be missing a stirring underdog movie just waiting to happen. (And this "Happy Trails" winner of coolest Federation logo)

177 Sag Bolun Turkmenistan

Why they lost: With everything to play for after a 1-1 draw at home, the Green Men Turkmen waited too long, ceding 4 goals to Singapore in the first 75 minutes. An own goal and two late, intentionally Turkmen, goals made it close, but not close enough.

Who/What we'll miss: The sophomoric humor potential of the most popular club sides in Turkmenistan FC/HTTU Asgabat...Heehee..Asgabat.

PHEW! That's a lot of teams to bid farewell. In our next posts will look ahead to the next rounds of competition in North America and Asia, the start of South American qualifying, some unlikely teams to root for and predictions from a host of Hooligans.