Shooting From the Hip: AFC Second Round

You don't get far in this world playing it cautiously. It's as much a part of the Montana spirit as speed-limit free highways and sales-tax-free beef jerky.

So when it comes to predictions, I'll shoot from the hip. Take a chance when I'm not exactly sure. Be blunt and direct and optimistic when I can be.

The second round of Asian qualifying was announced on Tuesday, and while it won't start for another month and won't end for another year, I figured it was best to make predictions within 48 hours.

The nearly-year long second round, 8 groups of 5 will play home and away. The winners, and the top four runners up, will move on to the final round. (That's where your odds as one team in 2 groups of 6 get a heck of a lot better.)

So who will reach those lofty heights?

Group A: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, Timor-Leste, Malaysia
Winner: The Saudis have the higher profile and the richer pedigree, but the United Arab Emirates has had the better run of form lately. With probably the softest competition around them, I'd guess Zayed's Sons have the best chance.

Dark Horse: Set aside the geopolitical turmoil and the fact that their leaders seem hell bent on getting Israel kicked out of FIFA, but Palestine likely offers the best chance at an upset. A squad built on non-local players will never coalesce perfectly, but their familiarity with top flight squads (as seen in a trip to the the AFC Cup in January) will serve them well.
***
Group B: Australia, Jordan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Bangladesh
Winner: This isn't quite a tap-in for The Socceroos but it's close. One of the dominant sides in Asia will have no trouble handling the rivals, the only real match to watch will be against Jordan.

A Socceroo tap in

Dark Horse: Speaking of Jordan, "The Chivalrous" have a strong case to make as one of the top sides in West Asia. They've had great fortune against the lesser sides of Asia (which definitely includes the Bangladeshis, Tajiks and Kyrgyzseseses--okay the Kyrgyz no offense meant), and by cutting their teeth in an endless series of friendlies against higher profile foes they'll keep that strength, take their lumps against Australia and move along.
***
Group C: China, Qatar, Maldives, Bhutan, Hong Kong
Winner: Loathe as I am to give them any credit, Qatar has put just about everything they have into developing a team that will match their stadia by 2022. And in case you're wondering, yes that does include pressuring foreigners into service (including Frenchman Dame Traore, Ghanaian Mohammad Muntari and Brazilian Luiz Junior). A strong 2014 was undercut by a truly underwhelming performance in the Asian Cup, but I think they'll be under pressure to get close this cycle--so they don't become the first team since Italy in 1934--the second cup ever--to host a world cup without having played in one before.

Dark Horse: I'm absolutely drinking Bhutan's Kool-Aid, but I don't care. The low profile, lack of film, high altitude home matches and general "do you believe in miracles vibe" makes the land of the Thunder Dragon an easy squad to root for. In the end they'd need to take points at home against both China and Qatar and sweep all matches against Maldives and Hong Kong, but hey, crazier things have happened.
***
Group D: Iran, Oman, India, Turkmenistan, Guam
Winner: With or without the recently departed Carlos Quieroz, Iran's got too much talent to miss out in this group. A debacle during a penalty shoot out at the Asian Cup this January shouldn't distract from the fact that they were easy front runners at the tournament and should be for this one as well. If they put their minds to it, I'm sure that young striking talents like Sardar Azmoun and Karim Ansarfarid could find some salient suggestions for the nuclear deal too.

Go Go Guam!

Dark Horse: Much as I love plumping for India (where I lived and worked for a few years), the baffling dark horse to root for is Guam. The rare American protectorate that actually IS an underdog, Guam garnered big headlines when they drew at higher profile Singapore. A squad filled with American college kids and MLS developmental talents might not do much against even average Asian sides like a dangerous Omani crew. But they are the ultimate dark horse.
***
Group E: Japan, Syria, Afghanistan, Singapore, Cambodia
Winner: It will take a lot for any of these teams to meaningfully challenge Japan. The Blue Samurai got an excellent draw despite a lackluster World Cup and Asian Cup. Still, they're at the top of the Asian standings and even if they don't consistently bring back European based players they should be able to handle these qualification rivals.

Dark Horse: If one of the other four sides can put together a consistent run against the other three they could pull a surprise especially with other second-tier teams (and Japan) playing so inconsistently. At a guess, I'd put money on Singapore which boasts a young squad with some internationally based players and more who work together at Lions XII bringing cohesion and confidence into the mix (not to mention avoiding the ...but when you lose to Guam...my whole confidence is undermined.
***
Group F: Iraq, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Chinese Taipei
Winner: Credit where it's due, Iraq consistently makes the best of an unusual and often trying situation. They've played the top teams in Asia very closely and make a habit of taking lower-ranked rivals seriously. A few foreign based players (including the Columbus Crew's Justin Meram) show continued promise and growth.

From Left to Right: Chanathip Songkrasin and Kroekrit Thawikan

Dark Horse: The biggest challenge for Iraq will be the frequent long-distance hauls to South East Asia. So the question for a dark horse will be any team who can boast a difficult home environment (to steal a win against the favorites) and real sway over regional rivals. By that standard Thailand is your most likely nominee (just winning the South East Asia Suzuki Cup, boasting a young and growing squad, consistent at home), but that's not anything I'd wager heavily on.
***
Group G: Korea Republic, Kuwait, Lebanon, Myanmar, Laos
Winner: Korea is still one of the preeminent powers in Asian football, perpetual status as bridesmaid's not withstanding. Their growing influence in Europe doesn't hurt matters, world cup qualification is now expected and the rivals here won't slow that down.

Dark Horse: Right now the hottest team for fans of Asian underdogs is Bhutan, but Lebanon was pulling the Cinderella story during the 2014 cycle. They're back again against two teams they beat on the road during the last set of qualifiers, higher regarded Kuwait and Korea. Though it ended with whimper in the final round of qualifying, the Cedars stood tall, and while Kuwait's a more likely runner-up/qualifier. Lebanon is still where my loyalty lies.
***
Group H: Uzbekistan, Bahrain, Philippines, DPR Korea, Yemen
Winner: The Uzbeks have long been a favorite of this blog. After all there's a strong corps of players being augmented by solid youth talents from a growing domestic league. They were in the hunt for a World Cup Spot until the final weeks of the last cycle, and they played well in the Asian Cup this January. Sure their president might be a nut job who made his daughters pop stars, ambassadors, corporate honchos, heirs apparent to the presidency, and then (at least in one case) political prisoners. But still, how 'bout that team, eh?

At least he didn't name them manager

Dark Horse: Maybe it's that they're the only reasonable country in the group. Maybe it's that their nickname is "the Street Dogs". Maybe it's that I'm afraid of Manny Pacquiao. But I feel like the Philippines might be poised for a surprising finish. Bahrain and Korea are both on the slide and Yemen is in turmoil while the Philippines has seen steady results and, in goal keeper Neil Ethridge, boast the only Chelsea trainee in the whole group.

***
12 Teams advancing to third Round (** signifies Top 4 runner up)
UAE
Australia
**Jordan
Qatar
Iran
Japan
Iraq
**Thailand
South Korea
**Kuwait
Uzbekistan
**The Philippines

3 On/3 Off: Asian Cup Edition

So, I was back on schedule, and then...yeah.

We hereby return to our summaries and catch-up of notable (and not-so notable) tournaments starting with the first federation cup of the new cycle: the AFC Asian Cup

On: Tim Cahill (Soccer Legend)
Tim Cahill is to Australlian soccer what Bronco Nagurski is to American football.

That is all.

Off: Australian Fans (Geopolitical Novices)
I'm all for hospitality, but Australian fans took it to a new level expressing their affection for North Korea. The Red Robot wasn't too likely to have a lot of fans in the stands, but that's as much for it's systemic disadvantaging of citizens as it is due to the country's small population. Cheer how you want to Aussies...but just remember that one man's satire is a nut job despot's eternal devotion.

On: South Korea
The Taeguk Warriors are certainly disappointed to have been forced to settle for a fourth silver medal since their last trophy in 1960. (Their four bronzes over the same time don't help either). But set aside the final standings and you can see a dominant squad that only trailed for 45 minutes (the second half of the final) and still managed a stunning equalizer in stoppage time. The resilient South Koreans are certainly worthy of a trophy, and I have every confidence they'll be gunning for one sooner rather than later.
Off: Japan
Meanwhile, Korea's primary rival, Japan's Blue Samurai, were underwhelming, topping a middling Group D before being on the back foot for 74 minutes against the United Arab Emirates en route to their eventual ouster in the quarterfinals. Combine this lackluster showing with the fuzzy and unfocused runs in Brazil both last summer and the year before (at the Confederations' Cup) and Japan doesn't look terribly well prepared for the future.


On: Asia's "Perceived" Third Tier (Uzbekistan/UAE/China/Iraq)
Recent form suggested that China and Iraq had no shot at the second round and that the UAE and Uzbekistan were too unknown to thrive in a bigger tournament. At the end of the tournament Iraq and the UAE finished 3rd & 4th, while China and Uzbekistan topped a group featuring more recent World Cup qualifiers (North Korea/Saudi Arabia).

Off: Asia's "Perceived" Second Tier (Saudi Arabia/Oman/Jordan/Qatar)
The Saudi's remain Asia's most baffling squad, with a fine pedigree and minimal results. The other gulf states with rising standards and results (Oman, Jordan and Qatar)looked totally underwhelming en route to their own early exits. And while none conceded as many goals as debutants Palestine, their standards aren't to compete against Palestine...it's to compete against the other top teams in Asia.

Catching up on the Cups: Southeast Asian Cup

When you have a job it's easy to lose track of the fun things in life: like minor international soccer tournaments.
So, as we near the end of the actual Asian Cup we take a look backwards at the smaller, less prestigious, but far more fun Southeast Asian Cup, also known as the ASEAN Football Federation Cup, or the AFF Cup, or the Suzuki AFF Cup, because why not.

Everything's Coming Up Kiatsuk!!

ON: Kiatsuk Senamuang (Coach of Thailand)
The former War Elephants striker returned to the team as a youth level coach and after a great run of form (including gold medals in two youth tournaments) repeated the feat when his youth players graduated to the national team. He's the first person to win the Suzuki Cup as both a player and manager. So basically, he's golden until Thailand fails to qualify for the World Cup.
OFF: Clarity of fan/political allegiance in Thailand
As the proud owner of a Bangkok knockoff Thai National Team jersey, I have to say that I was swiftly pressured into identifying the color that noticed my political allegiance. Yellow for the monarchy, red for the reformers or blue for...well...farang tourists who didn't want to piss anyone off. But with their most recent trophy won in red and dedicated to the ailing king, it's hard to tell what anybody's rooting for in the Thai stands (other than victory/peace).

ON: Mohd Safiq Rahim

Gratuitous Malaysian Bowling plug

While Malaysia was unlucky again to be waylaid in their pursuit of futbol greatness. The country has a strong hunger for glory, but little to show for it. Their 2010 Suzuki Cup win was their first trophy in 21 years, and they've got just 5 points in the last 3 World Cup qualifying campaigns. But that's nothing to do with Safiq Rahim, who remains absolutley deadly from the penalty spot netting four of his Golden Boot winning 6 goals. And if that weren't enough, he's married to one of Malaysia's best known female bowlers Zandra Aziela. (Take that Nomar Garciaparra and Mia Hamm!)
OFF: Baby Face Laotian Keepers 
Living in a part of the world with a large Laotian diaspora, I keep hoping that Thim Xad will pick it up. But that's hard to do when they field a pair of goalies with 5 caps to their names. Perhaps Thailand built for their future by trying so many young talents out, but manager Dave Booth (of Grimsby Town fame) may actually have set back the process of Seng Athit Somvang (23) and  Soukthavy Soundala (19) after that duo yielded 12 goals in 3 matches. God speed to the newbies.


ON: The Street Rep of South Asian Fans
You name the hooligan-ish behavior and South Asian fans seemed to go in for it. Throw toilet paper at the ref: Check (thanks Singapore). Point lasers into opponents eyes: check (thanks Malaysia). Deliver death threats to opponents: check (thank you Thailand). And just beat mercilessly beating people up: check (thanks again Malaysia...though Malaysian press says thanks go to Vietnam...let's just agree you both acted poorly.)
OFF: The Socceroos
Technically Australia is part of the Southeast Asian Cup, but technically, Australia is much much better than everyone else in the sub-region. So! The Socceroos have chosen to participate only in the East Asian cup, with greater prestige, more money and greater challenge. But we know the truth, they just don't want to face the potential upset of so many consonants being dropped on confused readers of Aussie Newspapers

Happy Trails: 32-17

32: Au revoir, Cameroon
Why They Lost: Between Samuel Eto'o holding back, and Alex Song popping off, Cameroon's got no one to blame but themselves. When your biggest pre-tournament warm up is a spat over payment, your priorities are clearly elsewhere.
What We'll Miss: Eto'o's last stand and the chance to see the Indomitable Lions finally live up to the old accomplishments of Roger Milla.

31: Asiabi, Honduras

Why they Lost: Sure, Honduras wasn't very good to start with, but when you combine not being great with playing rough and rumbly at a tournament where breathing on a star the wrong way can get you carded and you've got a recipe for disaster.

What We'll Miss: The chance to point out Honduras as an example of how "tough" futbol can be to the haters in the world.

30: G'day, Australia
Why They Lost: Australia seriously suffered from a lack of ten other Tim Cahills. Ten more Cahills and they might actually have a solid chance at getting a point.
What We'll Miss: Tim Cahill...oh wait, he'll be touring the country with the MLS...then probably just the adorable "Socceroo" love that guy.

29: Sayonara, Japan
Why They Lost: Japan came out of the gates with one heckuva-a-half, taking the lead against a dangerous Ivory Coast team. After that everything came apart, losing to the Elephants, drawing with the Greeks and getting rocked by Colombia.
What We'll Miss: We may not like thunderstix, but man, Japanese fans do a great job of dressing up like crazy people for the world cup.


28: Be Omide Didar, Iran
Why They Lost: The shut down defense that carred Team Melli through the whole of qualification did not desert them when they got to Brazil, frustrating some of the best offenses from around the world until Bosnia finally broke through.
What We'll Miss: Reza Goochanenjad and Alireza Hagighi, both talented on the pitch and posessors of kickass hairdo's

27: Annyong-hi Kashipsho, Korea
Why They Lost: A full season in Europe, a flight across the whole of Asia to train, a flight across the whole Pacific to warm up, a flight to Brazil to compete. Worn down, exhausted, the Taeguk Warriors barely stood a chance.
What We'll Miss: I really do like the nickname Taeguk (Peace) Warriors...if you'd like a new nickname Dan Snyder, I'd suggest that.

26: Cheerio, England
Why they Lost: As cohesive and organized as England can seem, they lack the star power of a truly superlative scorer. Wayne Rooney's strong, but would be less imposing if he didn't have Nike behind him. Daniel Sturridge might be getting there but there's a ways to go. Unless you can find a way to make a Louis Suarezington, or Marvin Balotellingham III, they'll always looked outgunned.
What We'll Miss: The Sun's Apopleptic Headlines. Eternally entertaining.


25: Nante Yie, Ghana
Why They Lost: Players went on strike against playing due to lack of pay on Tuesday, then Kevin Prince Boateng and Sulley Muntari got in an altercation with a national team official leading to their expulsion and weakening their squad en route to a loss in the critical final match.
What We'll Miss: The Black Stars have always been a favorite of mine. I was torn when they lost to the US and worried when they came close to upending Portugal and stealing second place. I'll still root for Boateng and Muntari, and still root for the Black Stars, especially as more veteran players set up for another run in 4 years.

24: Do Svidanja, Russia
Why The Lost: I might be the world's leading Fabio Capello basher, but seriously, I have yet to see any of the skill that people drool over.
What We'll Miss: Making fun of both Fabio Capello and Vladmir Putin.

23: Adios, Spain
Why They Lost: Vicente Del Bosque knows what works, unfortunately he does not know what ELSE can work. The buddies, the pals, the squad that worked so well for the last three championships is still in place, whether or not it should be is another matter. Certainly, the piss poor showing against Holland and Chile suggests not.
What We'll Miss: Hour after hour of ESPN drooling over a Spanish dynasty and the "genius" of tiki-taka futbol

22: Arrivederci, Italy
Why They Lost: Hubris, thy name is Azzuri. After a sparkling win against England, it looked to be clear sailing against Costa Rica into the second round, instead they were inert and disinterested, doing nothing much of import. The final defeat to Uruguay was another unimpressive result waiting for divine intervention from the referee, only to be left wanting.
What We'll Miss: A couple of drops of blood from Giorgio Chiellini's shoulder.

21: Katora, Cote D'Ivoire
Why They Lost: One last foul. One last foul in the box that lost the draw, lost the point needed to move on and led to Greece (who had played worse than most of the other teams in this list) moving into the next round. They were a minute away...it's a shame, a real shame.
What We'll Miss: The classics: Kalou, the Toures and Drogba, and the newbies: Gervinhio and Wilfried Bony, pretty much all the talent out there

20: Vidimo Se, Bosnia/Herzegovina
Why they Lost: Like Andriy Schevchenko before him, Edin Dzeko is a tremendous scorer who can't do everything. He missed some golden opportunities, but his rivals came no where close to even creating them.
What We'll Miss: Edin Dzeko clearly should be a marked man around the world, it will be a pity to miss out on him doing the same in later rounds.

19: Zbogom, Croatia
Why They Lost: Dejan Lovren's late "penalty" against Brazil seemed to be a stunner, from which Croatia could never quite recover. They were playing from behind the whole time and never got their feat under them.
What We'll Miss: We've never loved Croatia, but we were okay with their jersey...it takes real men to wear picnic table cloths.

18: Ate Logo, Portugal
Why They Lost: Say what you will about Lionel Messi needing to show up at this tournament, Cristiano Ronaldo was almost nowhere and is rarely anywhere in the World Cups. A great cross to tie the US came after a lackluster 94 minutes, and a final goal to beat Ghana looked more lucky than good. Rely on him too much and you struggle through.

Coming soon to a league near you

What We'll Miss: Women coming to matches--without Ronaldo there's a little less to look at.

17: Ricunacungacama, Ecuador
Why They Lost: Ecuador played tremendously, looking great against Honduras, playing pretty well against France and looking for all the world like they had Switzerland beat. If they hadn't ceded that final second desperation goal, they'd likely have made CONMEBOL, 6 for 6.
What We'll Miss: Enner Valencia is pretty badass, but we're betting we won't have to wait four years to see him on tv again...your move Europe.

Waning Seconds: Groups A & B

Let's take a quick glimpse at exactly what must be done for teams to qualify, or, in the case of others not heading in to the last round of matches.

MORNING--
Netherlands V.s. Chile
This is just a game for positioning as both the Dutch and Chileans are through to the knockout rounds. The question is who will win the group and who will finish second. (There may be different desires based on the morning matches and where Brazil finishes). The Dutch have an inside track on goal differential, so a draw favors them, but Chile doesn't seem terribly impressed with any opponent and given the Oranje's struggles with Australia, La Roja might push up in an attempt to escape rival Brazil and face either the Croats or Mexico.

Spain V.s. Australia--A match for pride, expect the Aussies to go for the points, and Spain to sleepwalk their way hoping they can sit down and rest for a while.

AFTERNOON--

Brazil V.s. Cameroon
Brazil has the benefit of facing the already eliminated Cameroon. They have an even bigger benefit of facing a Cameroon squad that looks very eager to get the heck away from each other as soon as possible. If they get a point they move on, if they get a win, they are likely to win the group.

Croatia V.s. Mexico
This one's for all the marbles. It's win or go home for Croatia, while Mexico can benefit from either a win or a draw (win by enough and they might even unseat Brazil at the top of the group, though that would require strong defense from Cameroon...but there's a first time for everything). The only way both teams go through is if Cameroon beats Brazil....I'm sorry, I'm sorry I thought I could write that with a straight face....couldn't make it.

3 On/3 Off: Matches Seventeen-Nineteen

We're starting to see teams drop off the map, getting ready for the inevitable Happy Trails post at the end of this round, the plus side is it makes recapping who is up and who is down a heckuva lot easier.

ON: Mario Mandzukic--Clearly the Bayern Munich man knew what he was doing, setting up one goal, scoring two more, and generally being the ultimate thorn in the side of Cameroon. Croatia's nowhere near their 1998 peak, but Mandzukic is rapidly inserting himself alongside Madrid's Modric as a man worth watching at all times.
OFF: Alex Song--Meanwhile Barca's buddy Alex Song has joined the ranks of infamy with his cousin Rigobert (red carded in two consecutive world cups) and Portugal's Pepe for some of the most boneheaded play on the world's biggest stage. Between a mock strike before the cup, a thanks-refs-for-making-it-closer-than-it-should-have-been game against Mexico and the disaster in Manaus, Song may just be the most convenient scape goat...but still...if it walks like a goat and bleats like a goat...

ON: Gary Medel--Sure we named him our Hip-Star of Chile's team and touted them to break through to the second round, and that may account for a lot of why we keep plugging him here, but, c'mon, be honest, the man was a maniac in the back against La Furia Roja, shutting down as much as captain/keeper Bravo and displaying the tenacity that has made him beloved in Cardiff.
OFF: Vicente Del Bosque--The mastermind of the past 3 Championships seems to be all out of brain cells. Nothing he tries works. Nothing he draws up comes true. No substitute provides a spark, and the team that had the whole world quaking in their boots has been exposed like a Bat Boy in the Weekly World News. Sorry Boss.

ON: Robben & Robin--If ever there was a Dutch superhero duo it might just be Robin^2. They've got style, they've got panache and they've got just the right touch to make opponents dread getting up in the morning. Of course, the history of World Cups is littered with teams who made two good showings...so, temper those hopes everyone.
OFF: Common Wisdom--Australia stinks. Really, really stinks. They'll be lucky to smell the goal. That's the sense that common wisdom had of the Socceroos before the cup began, and sure, they still don't have a point to their name, but if you had to face a team right now with all your lunch money on the line would you rather face Austrlia or Spain?...Yeah...me too.

3 On/3 Off: Matches Two-Four

Day two of the World Cup saw more highs through beautifully headed goals, and more lows through dubious officiating. We sum it all up in our "3 On/3 Off" Post


ON: Miguel Herrera--We don't know if Miguel Herrera has a twitter account, we don't know if he cares what the world thinks of him (running Mexico and benching Chicharito...probably not). But the man seemed to have every soccer fan on the planet giddy today, as he endured rain and poor refereeing to be a regular source of amusement in an otherwise blase game.
OFF: Wilmer Roldan and Colombian Referees
Not watching the game, I couldn't say for certain, but judging by Twitter's near incessant explosions and vows of violence against them, I would wager that the game was not judged well...bad news for zebras, whistle blowers and FIFA employees everywhere.

ON: Robin Van Persie--the magical strike before half time swung the game's momentum radically and permanently, and Van Persie's moment of glory will likely have repurcussions far beyond a delighted home crowd and obsessive twittersphere.

OFF: Iker Casillas--He came into the match looking to break a World Cup record for most minutes without allowing a goal. He left a broken shell of what he once was...and that's not me being hyperbolic, he really looked utterly lost and woebegone, like the whole backbone of Spanish soccer crumbled into dust in 50 minutes.

ON: Tim Cahill's Legs--Aged though he is, Tim Cahill still has some ups, and he used them to great effect, pulling Australia single handedly back into their game. The Socceroos may be the most overmatched team in the Cup, but Cahill won't let them go down without a fight
OFF: Chile's Beat-Around the Bush Offense--Sure La Roja won, but their dominance in attacking should have yielded a score much closer to Holland's +4 than their paltry +2. The blame for that lies less on Australia's defense (which often looked shaky), and more on Chile's tepid attack, which relied on playing back for set up after set up that went no where.

Today's is overloaded with goodness, kicking off with Colombia/Greece, then Uruguay/Costa Rica, the big show: England/Italy, and wrapping up with Ivory Coast/Japan

Meet the Team: Australia

Nickname: There's a special place in heaven for people who combine the sport, and universal symbols of national identity in nicknames. On that score Soccerroo is about as perfect as nicknames get

Star: The striking talisman of Australian futbol (not football you Aussie Rules buffs) has to be Tim Cahill. The first Aussie to score in a World Cup match, the first to win man-of-the-match honors, the first to be a highly sought out Premier league striker, the first to be probably a little too old to have the same impact he once did. It's been a great run.

Adam Sarota...not that you've
ever heard of him.

Hip-Star: Rising star Robbie Kruse is out for the whole summer, and golden boy Tommy Oar is too mainstream, so we'll go with Oar's Utrecht running mate Adam Sarota whose midfield play will be critical if Australia is going to sneak any points from their Group B Rivals

X-Factor: General consensus is that an aging Soccerroo squad is out of their depth against one of the toughest groups in the whole tournament. Which means that to do anything Australia will have to rely on their rivals poor planning. Chances are that Spain won't overlook anything, but an optimistic Chile and declining Dutch could be ripe for the picking. (Emphasis on could be)

Coach: New man Ange Postecoglou has been on the job for six months and has one win in two matches to show for it...with his team playing on every corner of the earth, getting them together is a bit of a daunting task for anyone, let a lone a first time national manager.

Obligatory Cookie Photo

History: The recent golden boys (Cahill, Shwarzer and Kewell) served the Aussies well in Germany in '06 getting them a second round spot against eventual winners Italy and pulling themselves within goal difference of Ghana after a miserable 4-0 blanking by Germany in 2010. But now that Kewell and Shwarzer are out of the picture it's down to Tim Cahill to save the day.


Food: Tempting as it is to make this a shot at Melba Toast and Vegemite, I actually do want to sample some local favorites as each team plays, and perhaps the best bet on that score will be the Anzac biscuit, made for soldiers bound for Gallipoly, and now embraced by vegetarians everhwere.

Hey, I got a Vegemite burn in anyway!

Fool: Tony Abbott hasn't had enough time to make an idiot of himself, but the fussing and feuding of Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd is about as entertaining a form of political theatre as you can find...provided you find the total aggravation of a national political system entertaining...and I do!

Best Case: While sight seeing near the amazon Cahill finds the fountain of youth, calls up Shwarzer and Kewell, dips Robbie Kruse's legs in to get him healthy and together they shove the line ups of Spain and Holland off a cliff...then they finish second and get bounced in the first round.

Worst Case: They mimic their 1972 fore-runners from the first Aussie cup team and come up pointless and goalless in three matches.

My prediction: No matter how sarcastic they are, no matter how frequently they cut me down to size, I do have a soft spot for Australians in general (as well as their beloved Soccer-roos). But in the brutal group B they have about as much chance as an untended baby in a dingo sanctuary. (Too soon?) I'll trust them to get a goal against a napping Spanish and Dutch sides, but beyond that they'll be the Bad News 'Roos. 4th in Group B--0 points

Bonus! Here's a top hit video from reknowned Aussie artists Hilltop Hoods, the island nation's entry in our World Cup of Hip Hop

In it...but win it? #2 Australia, South Korea, Iran

We're ready to continue our look at teams that have qualified for the 2014 World Cup, by analyzing their chances as quickly as possible, thereby removing all responsibility for doing things well.

Qualifier #3 Australia
Contender Credentials: The Socceroos have quietly become one of the most consistent teams in the Asian Football Confederation. Building off a trip to Germany in 2006 (their last year in the Oceania Confederation), they have now made three-straight World Cups. Furthermore, the power of local players has become increasingly apparent as long serving national team members continue plying their trade in the top divisions of Europe, and increasingly do so along side well regarded younger players (24 year olds [GK] Mitchell Langerak, [F] Robbie Kruse and [MF] Tom Rogic).

Pretender Problems: Though heavily favored to qualify, Australia was totally lack luster in the first several rounds of qualifying matches, mustering just 1 in in 6 tries (though they did earn points in all their others). It's hard to imagine a team threatening the best in the world when they struggle with Oman as much as the Aussies did. Add in that favored veterans like goalie Mark Schwarzer are nearing 40 and the power house looks more like the old age home.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: The Aussies were playing it cool in the early go, but now are a force to be reckoned with, and with familiar hands helping the newbies they shock the world en route to the semis, while the lousy Kiwis stay home.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Worse than their qualifying campaign, one rank outsider beats them like an old didjeridoo while New Zealand shockingly makes the knockout stages.
Prediction: A few stellar showings marred by inability to finish the job leaves them just outside of the knockout stage--3rd in their group.

Qualifier #4 Iran
Contender Credentials: Over the last two decades Iran has had a familiar pattern--qualify, fail to qualify, qualify, fail to qualify. Though even in their failures they often come heartbreakingly close. They head to the tournament next year with coaching golden(ish) boy Carlos Quieroz at the helm, a man who led South Africa and Portugal to the Mondiale before doing the same for Team Melli and is as doggedly loyal and supportive of Iran in general as your friendly neighborhood Imam. Under Quieroz they have perhaps the most fearsome defense in Asia, ceding just two goals in the last round of qualification.

Pretender Problems: Ceding two goals was nearly two goals too many as Iran was tied with Qatar for third place coming into the month, only a startling offensive outburst from Standard Leige's Reza Ghoochannejhad boosted them in (largely on the back of a 4-0 romp over Lebanon). Iran also has a habit of promoting players attuned to the local political philosophy rather than those who are really really good (hence Ali Daei's 100+ caps...though his 100+ goals also have something to do with that).

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Slotted in a group with decadent westerners (and Israel) Iran crushes them all; then they do the same through the knock out stages until decimating the U.S. 10-0 in the final [this fantasy brought to you directly from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's brain]
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Quieroz implodes (as he is want to do) the goals dry up and all the players start drinking, swearing and saying provocative things like: "hey, whatever people want to do is cool with me, live and let live I always say" [this nightmare brought to you directly from Ayatollah Khameni's brain]
Prediction: The defense is not as effective on the world stage as it is in Asia and a dearth of goals (another Quieroz trademark), Iran finishes bottom of their group. But the players remain good muslims, inshallah [this dose of reality brought to you by everyone not named Mahmoud Ahmadinejad/Ayatollah Khameni]


Qualifier #5 South Korea
Contender Credentials: The fourth and final member of Asia's elite four teams: South Korea may have been playing the game the longest (assuming you count chuk-guk, which you should...if only for the name). They have a World Cup streak that might just shame the rest of the continent, having been to every Mondiale since 1986 (That's 8 straight to 3 for Australia and 5 for bitter rivals: Japan). Finally they offer perhaps the best developed and organized talent nurturing program on the continent, with national team fixtures (like Park-ji Sung) gladly making way for younger talents (like Son Heung-Min) that all routinely play in the top flight of international competition.

Pretender Problems: Chuk-guk is not futbol, and players who qualified in 1986 will not be taking the field in Brazil next summer. And for a talented team, the Taeguk Warriors sure didn't look like one in their final matches, as (on their home soil mind you) they needed an own goal to get past Uzbekistan and lost 1-0 to Iran. An onslaught of goals in Takshent nearly put the Uzbeks through and sent South Korea to the dread play-in...a pretty mighty fall from grace for a team that was on top of the group heading into last week.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Fueled by dynamic young talent, South Korea plays their most fluid style of futbol reminding everyone why they are the top talent in Asia and top their fourth place finish in 2002 by a solid three spots.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: The far flung players in Europe are worn out when they have to trudge to Asia for training and thence to South America for competition, finishing with three losses...meanwhile Japan wins the tournament and taunts Korea with it across sea, while North Korea takes their failure as a sign of weakness and attacks.
Prediction: Some underperforming European side [*cou{HOLLAND}gh!*] comes apart in their group and the Warriors capitalize to make their second straight appearance in the round of 16.

Waning Seconds: ASIA UPDATE!

A few weeks ago we ran down how every Asian team still had a chance to qualify for the world cup.

Yeah...that's not so much the case any more.

So here now is a run down on how it can play out tomorrow as three more tickets are punched for Brazil and one serious squabble is set for September.

First Match

Yup...it's adorable

Australia plays Iraq in Sydney in the first game of the day. The Iraqis must be disappointed not to parlay recent AFC success into a World Cup bid, but they could always settle for ruining the Socceroos day.

A win for Australia sees them straight to Brazil, anything less and they have to stay up late to see what happens between Oman and Jordan

Group A Simulcast

The most thrilling part of qualification is playing right in the midst of another match that could just as easily determine your destiny. That's the situation for South Korea, Iran and Uzebekistan (Qatar too...but they were left in the dust on the last match day so a four way battle is out of the question).

South Korea's goal is simplest. Get a point at home against Iran and you're going down South America way. Having won all their home tilts so far this campaign it seems likely.

Jon Snow is rooting for Uzbekistan

If South Korea does win, Uzbekistan can make history by winning their own match and vaulting the White Wolves into their first ever World Cup. But if they draw or lose, they'll have to face the third place finisher in Group B for the chance to face the fifth place team in South America for a spot in Brazil.

And, then again, Iran can screw everything up (after all, it is Iran). A win and they're in. A Uzbekistan draw or loss, and they're in. But if Iran wins mightily (like they did against Lebanon) and Uzbekistan wins mightily, then South Korea crashes down to third place. OR, if Iran draws and Uzbekistan wins mightily, then they Ayatollah's favored 11 have to do the 5th-place-playoff.

And just in case entry to the most prestigious tournament on the planet isn't enough drama for you, now the Koreans and Iranians are jawing at each other about "poor treatment" "humiliation" and subtle hints at match fixing...I'm guessing that match will have a little extra juice to it.

Final Match

The real thrill of the day comes at the end of the day in Amman, Jordan, but it depends largely on what happens in Australia six-and-a-half hours earlier.

When even a little soccer blog
takes potshots at you...you should
be sad

The visiting Red Warriors of Oman could easily settle for a draw to solidify their spot in third place/the fifth place playoff (a new record for their nation), especially if Australia wins in which case they couldn't do better than third anyway. But if the Socceroos fall, the door opens for Oman and a victory would set an even better new record: World Cup qualification. (An Australia draw plus a seven goal victory of Jordan would also see them through...but come on, there's a better chance of Keanu Reeves winning a Tony award than there is of that happening.)

The home team will be desperate for a win, as they need all three points just to move in to third (an Australia loss plus a highly unlikely 8 goal swing in goal differential is the only way they've got to get in directly).

So there it is, six teams are set to battle for three sure thing spots and two awkward third-place will-they-or-won't-they playoffs.

Waning Seconds: Asia

In just a little more than a week, the last matches of AFC qualifying will begin and we will start slotting our first, official, not-host-nation entrants into the World Cup. As we approach these crucial three weeks worth of games, it's worth noting that every team could still work their way into the cup. And so we present (from most likely to least likely) the scenarios for who will qualify from the AFC

Already Looking At Airfares

Japan (Remaining Matches (6/4--v. Australia; 6/11--@Iraq)

They Qualify If: They get 1 point from either remaining match

They Go to a Play-off If: They lose both matches and Jordan & Iraq win all remaining

They Stay Home Next Summer If: A giant prehistoric lizard thing rises up from the Pacific and decimates Tokyo 

THAT WAY TO BAGGAGE CLAIM!

Confederation champions, top of their group, persistent qualifiers and all around dominant force of Asian football, Japan really is pretty good to go. It would take a pair of crippling losses to Australia and Iraq coupled with Jordan and Australia winning out in huge fashion to knock them down to the play-in games. (Since Jordan and Australia play eachother on June 11th, they'll have to do something pretty fancy in order to both win.) Realistically, if you love Japanese football, you can start booking plane tickets, pricing thongs, stocking up on sunscreen and taking Samba lessons because barring a total disaster, you're going to Brazil next summer.

A Game in Hand is Worth Two in the Bush...or Table Or Something

Right next to Japan in the pantheon of Asian football powers, South Korea and Australia are pretty solid bets for any World Cup now-a-days. And though neither are at the top of their qualifying tables, both have three games left to gain points and get into the final round of competition.

South Korea (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Lebanon; 6/11--v. Uzbekistan; 6/18--v. Iran])

They Qualify IF: They get a couple wins in their last matches

They go to Play-off IF: They get three points

They Stay Home Next Summer IF: Kim Jong Un gets an itchy trigger finger

All South Korea really needs is a point from each of their three final matches (@ Lebanon and home for Uzbekistan and Iran) and they're golden. Well...actually, all South Korea needs is a point from each of  their final three matches AND somebody to eliminate all the nukes in North Korea and they're golden. And hey, hit four points and you don't even need to worry about the continental play-off.

Australia (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Japan; 6/11--v. Jordan; 6/18--v. Iraq])
They Qualify IF: They meet expectations
They go to Play-off IF: They continue to underwhelm
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: The wheels fall off the wagon, the shrimp fall off the barbi, and the Fosters plant moves to Holland.

Things are slightly trickier for the Socceroos who have to start with Japan (in a definite struggle that might see them slip out of even third place). But their final two matches (at home versus Jordan [who can't win away from Amman] and Iraq [already beaten by Australia]) offer plenty of points to a merely competent Australian squad.

"Donnie, You're Out of Your Element!"

Unlike the first three teams I wrote about, Uzebekistan and Jordan would be big dance debutants should their current positions hold. But they have one less game to play than their more experienced rivals, and they have little control over what really happens.

Uzbekistan (Remaining Matches [6/11--@South Korea; 6/18 v. Qatar])

Do you recognize these men?

They Qualify IF: The young guns like Sanzhar Tursunov and Farhod Tojiyev pull out at least one big win.
They go to Play-off IF: The old timers like Server Djeparov and Timur Kapadze refuse to let a great start go wrong and get at least a point from each match.
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: All the players want to avoid awkward mispronunciations of their names on international television and they tank the last couple matches

Uzbekistan's youth program has been impressive of late and may make for a compelling dark horse in Brazil. But to get there they'll likely need at least three points to put themselves in the playoffs, and rather than banking on a win in Seoul on the 11th, they'll likely gear up for a more winnable match against Qatar in Tashkent on the 18th.

Jordan (Remaining Matches [6/11--@ Australia; 6/18--v.s. Oman
They Qualify IF: They finally pack their A-Game on the road and defend home turf (as usual)
They go to Play-off IF: They defend home but continue to scuffle on the road.
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They scuffle both home and away.

Meanwhile Jordan's Al-Nashama (The Chivalrous) have a more closely packed group with three teams behind them, all within two points of second place. Having failed to get a single point on the road in this group, Jordan has to head for Melbourne on the 11th, before closing out with Oman on the 18th. To be fair, the Socceroos have drawn both of their home ties this campaign, so a point in Melbourne isn't out of the question, but if The Chivalrous want to make King Abdullah proud, they definitely need the win in Amman (and then hope for a fair shot in the continental play-offs)

Literally...Everything to Play For

Iran (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Qatar; 6/11--v. Lebanon; 6/18--@ South Korea])
They Qualify IF: They want to live like heroes
They go to Play-off IF: They want to live
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They want to live like heroes of a revolution

Iran has a long and storied history in international football (like Japan, South Korea and Australia); they also have three games still to play (like South Korea and Australia), but they have a slightly more challenging task ahead of them. They're already 3 points back of South Korea, and need multiple results in their favor to pull ahead of Uzbekistan. They have to face the two underdog teams in Lebanon and Qatar whose whole campaigns hinge on beating Team Melli, before finishing IN South Korea.

Khameni prefers a 4-3-4

Then there's this: Iran's presidential election is scheduled for June 14th (between the Lebanon and South Korean matches). It will be the first election in Iran since the Arab Spring and the Green Revolution that threatened full scale rebellion during the last election (2009). Mahmoud Ahmadinijad will not be running. The Aytollah has blocked genuine reformers including former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani from candidacy. And the national team includes Masoud Shojaei and Captain Javad Nekounam who both suddenly "retired" after supporting the Green Revolution protestors publicly during their last qualifying campaign. Add to all of this the fact that qualifying for the World Cup is a welcome distraction from domestic troubles, but failing to qualify for the World Cup kind of, sort of, endangers really any ruling party in any country anywhere.

SO! If Iran beats Qatar and Lebanon, not only will they qualify for at least the continental play-offs, but the elections likely go off without a hitch, protecting players for another year or more and installing another hardline reformer who follows the will of the Ayatollahs. If Iran drops either or (inshallah) BOTH games, the populace (particularly young men with nothing better to do) will likely be dissatisfied, the elections are jeopardized and Shojaei and Nekounam (plus any other idealistic young athletes) have to face the awkward decision of whether they stand up with their fellow citizens and risk expulsion from the team [again] OR if they shut up and play out the string as their country roils from the inside out.

That's a little bit of pressure, wouldn't you say?

Clinging to the Cliff Face

I kind of want in on this party!

Oman (Remaining Matches [6/4--v.s. Iraq; 6/18--@Jordan])
They Qualify IF: They dominate their last two opponents and run up the goal differential
They go to Play-off IF: They just take care of business
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They decide they don't want to allow jabronis around the world to shout "Oh, man! Oman lost again!" and throw the last two matches

As we noted with Jordan, there are four teams bunched within 2 points of each other. And all that comes to a head when Iraq and Oman square off in Muscat on the 4th of June. A win for Oman and they can write their own ticket, they'll be just a point in Jordan away from a minimum 3rd place finish. 

Iraq (Remaining Matches [6/4--@Oman; 6/11--v.s. Japan; 6/18@Australia])
They Qualify IF: They rule and their opponents drool.
They go to Play-off IF: They do well and their opponents do slightly less well...
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They are average and their opponents are a little better than that.

Meanwhile, a win for Iraq puts the recent Asian title holders on a brutal final set of matches, at home versus Japan and in Australia. Best case scenario: Iraq beats Oman while Japan wraps up their qualifying with a win over Australia. Then Japan rests their stars allowing Iraq an easy three points in the second match, setting up a decisive final match against Australia (who pull a measly draw with Jordan in their second match), with momentum going all the way of the Lions of Mesopotamia. Worst case scenario: literally anything else happens.

Qatar (Remaining Matches [6/4--v. Iran; 6/18--@Uzbekistan])
They Qualify IF: They shock they world
They go to Play-off IF: They mildly surprise the world
They Stay Home Next Summer IF:  They totally underwhelm the world

And then there's Qatar the little nation that wants so badly to prove they aren't the corrupt ne'er-do-wells who swiped away the 2022 World Cup from other countries. Their chance to prove exactly that starts on the 4th in Doha where a win over Iran would go a long way to improving their odds (and ruining Iran's). Provided that Iran and Uzbekistan scuffle in their June 11th matches (against Lebanon and South Korea respectively) that sets the stage for Qatar to slip in if they win big in Uzbekistan on the 18th.

Slim To None

Lebanon (Remaining Matches [6/4--v.South Korea; 6/11--@Iran])
They Qualify Directly IF: They refuse to lose and other teams refuse to win
They go to Play-off IF: They refuse to lose and one team stubbornly meets expectations
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They accept their own limitations and find satisfaction in their accomplishments to this point.

We've been driving the Lebanon bandwagon for over a year and a half now. But there is only one path that can get our beloved Cedars into a qualifying scenario. They need to win their last two matches: against South Korea in Beirut and at Tehran and then hope that Qatar and Iran draw their own match (June 4th during the South Korea game) and lose/draw the rest of the way.

Any outright victory for either the Qatari or the Iranians and Lebanon would have to get a massive swing in goal differential, or a horrific plague of gout in the other countries...so, better win now.

Those are all the ways that Asian qualification could end. And while we would love to see Japan, Australia, South Korea, and the Uzbeks make it in (with Lebanon squeaking into the intercontinental playoffs) We have to admit, it's a tetchy possibility at best. 

One thing's for sure. Monday Morning Futbol is going to be a whole lot of fun for the next three weeks.

Analysis our Way

The next round of qualifying has kicked off, home-and-away matches that will set the Caribbean and Asia alight with furious competition. While these matches may turn into do or die affairs for the players and supporters, we have the liberty of remaining aloof, objective, and totally uninformed.

In that spirit here are our previews of the next round of Asian and North American qualifying rounds: group by group, with special insight from our fellow Hooligans--Edemame Pajyamas and Celestial Aly

Don't fight it...she always wins

AFC

Group A What a special group. You've got a plucky underdog in Iraq, a hulking Goliath in China, a cast of diverse, quirky characters from Singapore and a mysterious unknown in Jordan. Given all those story lines to make movies out of, you have to think that the powers that be in Hollywood would love to see the Iraqis come through with China...if only for the chance to make a sequel. I'm sure there's a part in there for Zoe Saldana (eager, interpid reporter, maybe?) and whatever Zoe Saldana wants, Zoe Saldana gets.

Group B While we've already discussed Lebanon's chances, it should be noted that South Korea's track record, top flight talent and willingness to set themselves on fire for victory make them the odds on favorite to win the group. Second place should be a toss up between Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates: since their nicknames are the white and the blue we fully expect that Parisian fashion designers will let us know which one is in and which is out this season.

Group C Kim Jong-Il's son--Kim Jong-Un--can firmly establish his power base if he oversees his team's ascendency to the next round of the World Cup. The best strategy to do that would be to kidnapped and indoctrinate the Japanese and Uzbeki players who visit Pyongyang for matches in the country. So if something that unlikely happens (and hey, it's North Korea, so it might!) then it'll be North Korea and Tajikistan (by default, natch.)

Group D Sure the Saudi's and the Aussies are the top teams in the group, sure they've got a bundle of World Cup appearances between them, sure they are the most likely teams to win the group...but I don't own one of their jerseys. Buoyed by my support Thailand should slip in to the next round in group two...if only because they risk incurring my wrath if they do not.

Group E A hard group to handicap. Iran has a dangerous attacking squad but might be past it's prime. Rising young powers Bahrain has made great strides recently in suppressing the opposition (through force if need be) and you should never underestimate Qatar's resources and determination to prove themselves. And hey! I just realized that my analysis of each nation's questionable governmental structures could also be applied to their football...how about that!

CONCACAF

Group A Just look at the Dominican's line-up. Manny Ramirez, Albert Pujols, evenan aging Pedro Martinez is better than anybody that Suriname, the Cayman Islands or El Salvador could scrounge up...oh, wait a second...I got confused about which sport I was writing about...uhh...let's just say El Salvador.

Now this is a line-up that could
get all the way to Brazil!

Group B There's not a lot of soccer power in Guyana or Bermuda, but Barbados could have a great chance...if they could pull the trident off of the flag and use it to impale the opposition. Other than that there's nobody to touch Trinidad or Tobago (and with their powers combined...well, they're not quite Captain Planet...but they're close)

Group C With the Bahamanians already picking up their ball and going home, there are only three teams left to fight. It will be the first group decided, the first one that sends someone on to the next round, so let's just go ahead and say the first team listed alphabetically wins, congratulations Dominica!!

Group D Canadian's are already excited about their chances to get through--and who could blame them? On top of their talent, Canadian fans are prone to throwing things on rinks and fields of every size and shape--it's doubtful that their only real challenge (St. Kitts & Nevis) are going to know what to do when octopi, hats or maple syrup rains down on them.

Hipster Zombies prefer their brains
at gastropubs with chipotle aioli

Group E Group E is brought to you by the letter G as Grenada, Guatemala and Grenadines(/St. Vincent). For that reason (and no other) Belize wins the group.

Group F I've written before about the US Virgin Islands having as much chance as anybody in a wildly unpredictable group. But, even with all their struggles, the smart money still has to be on Haiti. They gave us the modern form of Zombies, now they can unleash a 21st century strain of zombie (hipsters oversaturated on zombie memes)

January 2011: 3 On/3 Off

We'll try and set this up so that each month we review the most important information about world football gleaned from matches, competitions and news. (Hopefully there's always something to talk about.) And to do that, we'll think about three heroes subbed onto the pitch, and three out of form slugs heading for the bench with their heads hanging low.

3 Coming On:

Japan in General and Kaisuke Honda in particular:

Winning the Asian Cup is a little like being the greatest best baseball team in triple A. You've got a trophy and god knows you deserve it...but everyone knows in their heart of hearts that it might not be that way if you had to play a big-time, high-profile squad of superstars in the making.

Still, the blue samurai deserve to be congratulated. And unlike the Albuquerque Isotopes, they will get to play some high-profile superstars this summer when they head down to the Copa America to try their luck against Brazil and Argentina. Win that and I'll genuflect and beg forgiveness...until then, I'll just keep clapping politely

Except for Kaisuke Honda. After a sterling World Cup he won man of the tournament honors in Qatar and set the stage for his continued rise to the title of Asia's top footballer. Sniggering over his relationship to the car factory needs to stop...he looks like he's for real.

Feeling Good in Qatar

The Asian Cup was chock full of good stories. The hosts overcame their minnow-ish ranking and made a strong showing against eventual champions Japan. The Uzbeks were a surprise entry into the semi-finals (except not to me...because I predicted it...because I'm AWESOME!). And for a brief period of time the Australians were able to distract their countrymen from surging flood waters with some stellar football and a near miss in the final match. Kudos Asia, Kudos!

Spain...the system everyone wants a part of

Just in case the fawning adoration of the World Cup winners wasn't enough, FIFA pointed out the supremacy of Spanish Football at their annual awards ceremonies in Zurich. And while the Spaniards didn't walk away with any major individual hardware...their system and league gave a full throated power yell of domination to anyone who still thought Spain's best contribution to recent world history was tapas.

Lionel Messi (Barcelona's wunderkind) won the Ballon d'Or. Jose Mourinho (Mr. Jump on the Bandwagon/Real Madrid) won the coach of the year. And the Fifa Pro World XI features 8 La Liga representatives and 6 Spanish Nationals. Investing in all that talented football may have diverted funds from other areas like...say...the crippling Iberian debt crisis...but hey! SHINY TROPHIES!! (Suck on that England)

3 Heading off

Saudi Arabia: The Riyadh Zoo

Here in America we have a long and storied history of teams that are quite simply CRAZY. The Bronx Zoo of the New York Yankees in the 1970s, The Portland Jail Blazers from the turn of the millenia, The Cincinatti Bengals of...well...pretty much forever. But no matter what your preferred local sport, few crazy ass teams can compete with the insanity of Saudi Arabia at the Asian Cup.

Lose your first game (2:1 to Syria), that's bad...but maybe not: fire the coach this second bad. Still, the Saudi's made their choice and went in confident against Jordan...where they lost again (1:0). It's hard to fire a coach after one match, so instead King Abdullah fired federation president (Prince Sultan Bin Fahd) and replaced him with Prince Nawaf Bin Faisal. Surely, after cleaning house of these losers, a meaningless game against a half-strength already progressed Japan would give them the chance to lick their wounds, learn their lessons. Or...lose 5:0 and lead to the sacking of their second coach in three matches. (Cue the slow sarcastic clap)

A Break-away Confederation?

I listen regularly to the BBC's World Football podcast (and if you're reading this website hoping for news I suggest you look there instead). Last week the Beeb broke the story of scuttlebutt surrounding a new Confederation that could be created by merging Oceania with East Asia. The move makes sense for a few people. First, Australia could stop pretending to be Asian. Second, Japan and South Korea could have lovely holidays in New Caldonia. Finally, China could bid for the World Cup in 2026 and really stick it to the Qatari federation and AFC president Mohammed Bin Hammam.

But once you dig a little deeper this is a terrible plan. Oceania gets nothing but a pack of guaranteed ass-kickings in Tokyo, Seoul and Sydney. The whole scheme completely undermines FIFA authority and sets up more snide bickering between bureaucrats (leading to more back stage wheeling and dealing rather than less). North America would likely get bumped to one-side AGAIN in the continental rotation order (and with Europe likely to throw a tantrum for 2030, our next shot would be 2034...22 years after the Mayan apocolypse!). Nice try East Asia (and Australia)...but no...just no.

Qatar's Crickets

One little bone to pick with Qatar after the AFC Cup...seriously? you broke the bank to win the World Cup and you the only two full houses you can draw are for the home team versus Japan...and the final? I've seen bigger houses for operas in Butte! I've met more dedicated footie fans in remote hillside villages of India! Come on guys...show us why you won it. (Unless it's through corruption in which case please give no sign).

AFC Cup Outrounds!

It's crunch time in Qatar and no...I'm not referring to the home stretch of a camel race. Today begins the out rounds of the AFC cup, and shockingly, for someone with absolutely no experience, I did pretty well on my predictions of the quarter finalists.

Japan, Uzbekistan, Australia, South Korea, Iran and Iraq all came through for me, with only China and Saudi Arabia (who fired two coaches in three matches) falling short. So the new darlings are Jordan and...yup...Qatar. I'm wondering if they're winning through illegality or through sheer antagonism towards the rest of the world.

If you've watched any of the highlights (Click here if you're interested) you may well have noticed the somewhat...generally...shall we say..."sparse" crowds at the matches. That's too kind: there are literally HUGE SWATHS of seats available at these games. Seriously, I've seen larger crowds at Craig Kilborn Fan Fests. My brother's high-school games were more attended than these matches...and they played in Bozeman...in November...after shoveling snow off the field.

So, hey, if you want to go on vacation and see some international soccer in the lap of luxury: Qatar's the way to go. (It'll be easier now than in 11 years anyway).

We'll be back in a few days to check on the semi's which will have at least one starry-eyed dreamer playing with the World Cup perennials. (Good luck surviving that one Uzbekistan/Jordan)

AFC Cup 2011: A half-hearted/belated preview

Since the Asian Cup kicked off two days ago, I suppose I ought to point out precisely who is likely to win this and head on to the Confederations Cup in 2013.

Why? Because it's early January and there's NOTHING ELSE TO DO!

Let's lose Qatar (the deal with the Devil only won the them the world cup hosting, not actual talent), Syria (with only two stars left on their flag they only have so much collateral to trade with), North Korea (a change in management's always tough--for all his problems Kim Jong Il always got the red robot motivated) and much as it pains me to admit it: India. (Where the fans will be cheering right up until the cricket comes back on.

Just missing out on the out rounds we have Jordan (any non Michael form of "Jordan" can't win a title for fear of copyright infringement), Bahrain and the UAE (losing out of sympathy for their fellow obscenely wealthy Arab state: Qatar) and Kuwait...because I flipped a coin and they lost.

Ooops, Uzbekistan stayed alive until the knock out stage, but Japan will take care of that, while China crushes Saudi Arabia and moves wins the title of country that most frustrates Bill O'Rielly. On the other side of the draw, Australia and South Korea will run roughshod over Iraq and Iran because they'll be busy moping over their demotion on O'Rielly's list.

In the semifinals Australia will take China out for "a quick snort" the night before. Several hours and 22 lost pairs of pants later, a bedraggled/hungover China will be dumped from the tournament by a barely winded set of Socceroos. Meanwhile the Japanese and Koreans will do what they do best: hate eachother through a tense draw that ultimately results in a Korean victory.

The final on the 29th we'll have a rematch of a previous game between two group C rivals (as seen on January 14th). And under the blazing Qatari sun, a clear victor will emerge: and that victory will be....AUSTRALIA! (Because the crafty Aussies will spike their opponents Kim Chee...diabolic villainy...that's the Aussie way!)