Shooting From the Hip: AFC Second Round

You don't get far in this world playing it cautiously. It's as much a part of the Montana spirit as speed-limit free highways and sales-tax-free beef jerky.

So when it comes to predictions, I'll shoot from the hip. Take a chance when I'm not exactly sure. Be blunt and direct and optimistic when I can be.

The second round of Asian qualifying was announced on Tuesday, and while it won't start for another month and won't end for another year, I figured it was best to make predictions within 48 hours.

The nearly-year long second round, 8 groups of 5 will play home and away. The winners, and the top four runners up, will move on to the final round. (That's where your odds as one team in 2 groups of 6 get a heck of a lot better.)

So who will reach those lofty heights?

Group A: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, Timor-Leste, Malaysia
Winner: The Saudis have the higher profile and the richer pedigree, but the United Arab Emirates has had the better run of form lately. With probably the softest competition around them, I'd guess Zayed's Sons have the best chance.

Dark Horse: Set aside the geopolitical turmoil and the fact that their leaders seem hell bent on getting Israel kicked out of FIFA, but Palestine likely offers the best chance at an upset. A squad built on non-local players will never coalesce perfectly, but their familiarity with top flight squads (as seen in a trip to the the AFC Cup in January) will serve them well.
***
Group B: Australia, Jordan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Bangladesh
Winner: This isn't quite a tap-in for The Socceroos but it's close. One of the dominant sides in Asia will have no trouble handling the rivals, the only real match to watch will be against Jordan.

A Socceroo tap in

Dark Horse: Speaking of Jordan, "The Chivalrous" have a strong case to make as one of the top sides in West Asia. They've had great fortune against the lesser sides of Asia (which definitely includes the Bangladeshis, Tajiks and Kyrgyzseseses--okay the Kyrgyz no offense meant), and by cutting their teeth in an endless series of friendlies against higher profile foes they'll keep that strength, take their lumps against Australia and move along.
***
Group C: China, Qatar, Maldives, Bhutan, Hong Kong
Winner: Loathe as I am to give them any credit, Qatar has put just about everything they have into developing a team that will match their stadia by 2022. And in case you're wondering, yes that does include pressuring foreigners into service (including Frenchman Dame Traore, Ghanaian Mohammad Muntari and Brazilian Luiz Junior). A strong 2014 was undercut by a truly underwhelming performance in the Asian Cup, but I think they'll be under pressure to get close this cycle--so they don't become the first team since Italy in 1934--the second cup ever--to host a world cup without having played in one before.

Dark Horse: I'm absolutely drinking Bhutan's Kool-Aid, but I don't care. The low profile, lack of film, high altitude home matches and general "do you believe in miracles vibe" makes the land of the Thunder Dragon an easy squad to root for. In the end they'd need to take points at home against both China and Qatar and sweep all matches against Maldives and Hong Kong, but hey, crazier things have happened.
***
Group D: Iran, Oman, India, Turkmenistan, Guam
Winner: With or without the recently departed Carlos Quieroz, Iran's got too much talent to miss out in this group. A debacle during a penalty shoot out at the Asian Cup this January shouldn't distract from the fact that they were easy front runners at the tournament and should be for this one as well. If they put their minds to it, I'm sure that young striking talents like Sardar Azmoun and Karim Ansarfarid could find some salient suggestions for the nuclear deal too.

Go Go Guam!

Dark Horse: Much as I love plumping for India (where I lived and worked for a few years), the baffling dark horse to root for is Guam. The rare American protectorate that actually IS an underdog, Guam garnered big headlines when they drew at higher profile Singapore. A squad filled with American college kids and MLS developmental talents might not do much against even average Asian sides like a dangerous Omani crew. But they are the ultimate dark horse.
***
Group E: Japan, Syria, Afghanistan, Singapore, Cambodia
Winner: It will take a lot for any of these teams to meaningfully challenge Japan. The Blue Samurai got an excellent draw despite a lackluster World Cup and Asian Cup. Still, they're at the top of the Asian standings and even if they don't consistently bring back European based players they should be able to handle these qualification rivals.

Dark Horse: If one of the other four sides can put together a consistent run against the other three they could pull a surprise especially with other second-tier teams (and Japan) playing so inconsistently. At a guess, I'd put money on Singapore which boasts a young squad with some internationally based players and more who work together at Lions XII bringing cohesion and confidence into the mix (not to mention avoiding the ...but when you lose to Guam...my whole confidence is undermined.
***
Group F: Iraq, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Chinese Taipei
Winner: Credit where it's due, Iraq consistently makes the best of an unusual and often trying situation. They've played the top teams in Asia very closely and make a habit of taking lower-ranked rivals seriously. A few foreign based players (including the Columbus Crew's Justin Meram) show continued promise and growth.

From Left to Right: Chanathip Songkrasin and Kroekrit Thawikan

Dark Horse: The biggest challenge for Iraq will be the frequent long-distance hauls to South East Asia. So the question for a dark horse will be any team who can boast a difficult home environment (to steal a win against the favorites) and real sway over regional rivals. By that standard Thailand is your most likely nominee (just winning the South East Asia Suzuki Cup, boasting a young and growing squad, consistent at home), but that's not anything I'd wager heavily on.
***
Group G: Korea Republic, Kuwait, Lebanon, Myanmar, Laos
Winner: Korea is still one of the preeminent powers in Asian football, perpetual status as bridesmaid's not withstanding. Their growing influence in Europe doesn't hurt matters, world cup qualification is now expected and the rivals here won't slow that down.

Dark Horse: Right now the hottest team for fans of Asian underdogs is Bhutan, but Lebanon was pulling the Cinderella story during the 2014 cycle. They're back again against two teams they beat on the road during the last set of qualifiers, higher regarded Kuwait and Korea. Though it ended with whimper in the final round of qualifying, the Cedars stood tall, and while Kuwait's a more likely runner-up/qualifier. Lebanon is still where my loyalty lies.
***
Group H: Uzbekistan, Bahrain, Philippines, DPR Korea, Yemen
Winner: The Uzbeks have long been a favorite of this blog. After all there's a strong corps of players being augmented by solid youth talents from a growing domestic league. They were in the hunt for a World Cup Spot until the final weeks of the last cycle, and they played well in the Asian Cup this January. Sure their president might be a nut job who made his daughters pop stars, ambassadors, corporate honchos, heirs apparent to the presidency, and then (at least in one case) political prisoners. But still, how 'bout that team, eh?

At least he didn't name them manager

Dark Horse: Maybe it's that they're the only reasonable country in the group. Maybe it's that their nickname is "the Street Dogs". Maybe it's that I'm afraid of Manny Pacquiao. But I feel like the Philippines might be poised for a surprising finish. Bahrain and Korea are both on the slide and Yemen is in turmoil while the Philippines has seen steady results and, in goal keeper Neil Ethridge, boast the only Chelsea trainee in the whole group.

***
12 Teams advancing to third Round (** signifies Top 4 runner up)
UAE
Australia
**Jordan
Qatar
Iran
Japan
Iraq
**Thailand
South Korea
**Kuwait
Uzbekistan
**The Philippines

Catching up on the Cups: Southeast Asian Cup

When you have a job it's easy to lose track of the fun things in life: like minor international soccer tournaments.
So, as we near the end of the actual Asian Cup we take a look backwards at the smaller, less prestigious, but far more fun Southeast Asian Cup, also known as the ASEAN Football Federation Cup, or the AFF Cup, or the Suzuki AFF Cup, because why not.

Everything's Coming Up Kiatsuk!!

ON: Kiatsuk Senamuang (Coach of Thailand)
The former War Elephants striker returned to the team as a youth level coach and after a great run of form (including gold medals in two youth tournaments) repeated the feat when his youth players graduated to the national team. He's the first person to win the Suzuki Cup as both a player and manager. So basically, he's golden until Thailand fails to qualify for the World Cup.
OFF: Clarity of fan/political allegiance in Thailand
As the proud owner of a Bangkok knockoff Thai National Team jersey, I have to say that I was swiftly pressured into identifying the color that noticed my political allegiance. Yellow for the monarchy, red for the reformers or blue for...well...farang tourists who didn't want to piss anyone off. But with their most recent trophy won in red and dedicated to the ailing king, it's hard to tell what anybody's rooting for in the Thai stands (other than victory/peace).

ON: Mohd Safiq Rahim

Gratuitous Malaysian Bowling plug

While Malaysia was unlucky again to be waylaid in their pursuit of futbol greatness. The country has a strong hunger for glory, but little to show for it. Their 2010 Suzuki Cup win was their first trophy in 21 years, and they've got just 5 points in the last 3 World Cup qualifying campaigns. But that's nothing to do with Safiq Rahim, who remains absolutley deadly from the penalty spot netting four of his Golden Boot winning 6 goals. And if that weren't enough, he's married to one of Malaysia's best known female bowlers Zandra Aziela. (Take that Nomar Garciaparra and Mia Hamm!)
OFF: Baby Face Laotian Keepers 
Living in a part of the world with a large Laotian diaspora, I keep hoping that Thim Xad will pick it up. But that's hard to do when they field a pair of goalies with 5 caps to their names. Perhaps Thailand built for their future by trying so many young talents out, but manager Dave Booth (of Grimsby Town fame) may actually have set back the process of Seng Athit Somvang (23) and  Soukthavy Soundala (19) after that duo yielded 12 goals in 3 matches. God speed to the newbies.


ON: The Street Rep of South Asian Fans
You name the hooligan-ish behavior and South Asian fans seemed to go in for it. Throw toilet paper at the ref: Check (thanks Singapore). Point lasers into opponents eyes: check (thanks Malaysia). Deliver death threats to opponents: check (thank you Thailand). And just beat mercilessly beating people up: check (thanks again Malaysia...though Malaysian press says thanks go to Vietnam...let's just agree you both acted poorly.)
OFF: The Socceroos
Technically Australia is part of the Southeast Asian Cup, but technically, Australia is much much better than everyone else in the sub-region. So! The Socceroos have chosen to participate only in the East Asian cup, with greater prestige, more money and greater challenge. But we know the truth, they just don't want to face the potential upset of so many consonants being dropped on confused readers of Aussie Newspapers

Happy Trails #143-130 (Catching up on 2012's Eliminations)

143: Tofa Samoa
Why They Lost: A very young side, Samoa may not have had quite the experience to keep up with Tahiti and New Caldonia, or to stop themselves from yiedling 24 goals in 3 matches (this despite their triumphing over fellow minnows (American Samoa, Cook Islands and Tonga)

Fear my adorable WRATH!
(Optusnet.com)

Who/What We'll Miss: Traditional Samoan tattoos (or Pe'a) would have been guaranteed to freak out a few opponents and add a little non-Ronaldo based color.


142: Lukim Yu Bihain Papua New Guinea
Why They Lost: The rapidly improving Kapuls have a number of players playing in Australia's major league, but seemed to be hard pressed to break through a tough group including a superior New Zealand squad
Who/What We'll Miss: The chance to explain that the Kapul is the local (Tok Pisin) word for Cuscus which is a local variety of opossum...how 'bout that for some zoological factoids!

141: Sa Moce, Fiji
Why They Lost: A this often popular squad was stymied in their quest for another round of action after ceding a vital goal to Papua New Guinea and seeing the Solomon Islands snatch a draw against New Zealand

Not sure if this is a cheer or yawn
(Golfcentraldaily.com)

Who/What We'll Miss: Vijay Singh going nuts-o in the stands.


140: Mbae mi lukem yufala Vanuatu
Why They Lost: Vanuatu had a good chance to slip through a wide open Group A, but a 4:1 loss to Tahiti in the final match meant their downfall.
Who/What We'll Miss: With the vast majority of their team and coaches plying their trade in Vanuatu it'll be a shame that we can compare the "Vanuatu system" to the "Spanish system" (probably would have been a draw).

139: Sampa Jumpai Indonesia
Why They Lost: Poor scoring punch was the end of the day for Indonesia, just three goals saw them fall flat with zero points in their group (the second half game winner by Qatar spoiled their one chance for points)
Who/What We'll Miss: The chance for a reunion of the 1938 World Cup team (back when they were the Dutch East Indies, and Prince as Pre-Boron-Symbol-Prince)


138: See ya, wouldn't want to be ya, Singapore
Why They Lost: Time for penetrating analyses "if you give up more goals than you score it's hard to win," Singapore gave up 20 and scored 2...draw your own conclusions.
Who/What We'll Miss: Luxurious high rise mansions peering over the national stadium means everybody's got a seat in the city state!

Place goes crazy when Tajiks in tha house!
Citysearch.net

137: Khar Naboshad Tajikistan
Why They Lost: Continuing a popular theme of this post...it's all about the goal scoring...Tajikistan got 1 in their six matches. Unless you get a lot of nil-nil draws hard to move on that way.
Who/What We'll Miss: Would be pretty sweet to watch a Tajikistan match at the Boulder Dunshabe Tea House



136: Allah Yisallimak U.A.E.
Why They Lost: A slow start stung "The White" losing to Kuwait and Lebanon gave them a lot to get done against a far more powerful Korean Republic team.
Who/What We'll Miss: Hamdan Al Kamali, the wunderkind of Gulf-State soccer is a promising player on his way up the ladder at Lyon.

135: Sawatdi Thailand
Why They Lost: In it up until the end (and with the good fortune to play Oman in their final match) the War Elephants could not come up with the goals when they needed them and ended up at the bottom of their group.
Who/What We'll Miss: The excuse to wear my Teeratep Winothai jersey and this great federation logo (winner of our Happy Trails, coolest federation symbol award...that's not an elephant to piss off)


134: Mas as-salaamah Saudi Arabia
Why They Lost: The Saudi Golden generation is long gone and it may be a while before we see them back in a World Cup; only one player plays in a European league (Defender Osama Hasawi--and even that, is only recently)
Who/What We'll Miss: The tumultuous chances to fire a bunch of coaches and yell about the failures of the team...making the "Green Eagles" federation the world cup equivalent of the Steinbrenner's clan

133: Annyong hi-Kashipishio North Korea

The 1st 2010 Finalist to be Eliminated

Why They Lost: They foolishly trusted decadent Western based players to infiltrate the hard-working mother land's true sons. Such mistakes will not be repeated and those who have been corrupted shall undergo intense reeducation to repair the damage they have done to the home land and to the great and glorious Kim Jong-Un (People's Sexxiest Man Alive 2000-2013)
Who/What We'll Miss: Writing paragraphs like the above


132: 'Ilaa-liqaa Kuwait
Why They Lost: The hard luck Kuwaiti national side, stymied in attempts to qualify for the world cup over the past 3 decades after a debut in Spain '82, was stuck just outside the promised land of another round yet again. They had the chance to qualify in their final match, but the Taeguk Warriors of Korea were just too much and Kuwait headed home for another long four years.
Who/What We'll Miss: The utter irrationality of a team called "The Blue" despite the fact that their flag contains White, Green, Red and Black.

Heck, I'll sing the national Anthem if you want!
(Telegraph.co.uk)

131: Zai Jian, China
Why They Lost: Quite possibly because they had not yet paid Didier Drogba and Nikolas Anelka enough money to pretend that they are Chinese.
Who/What We'll Miss: The ever rarer feeling of being better than China at something (even if it's kicking a ball on a field)


130: Allah yisallimak, Bahrain
Why They Lost: Needing a big win over Singapore (and a Qatar loss to Iran) to move on, Bahrain got their big win (10-0), but Qatar drew, so no luck for the Big Red Machine. But hey! At least that 10-0 victory (over a team that allowed just 2 goals in the previous leg and was sitting its most experienced players) seems so incongruous and sketchy that Bahrain is the recipient of a FIFA INVESTIGATION!!
Who/What We'll Miss: The chance for Bahrainis gathering together to watch sport peacefully...OR...gathering together to watch sport and overthrow a tyrannical government.