Shooting From the Hip: AFC Second Round

You don't get far in this world playing it cautiously. It's as much a part of the Montana spirit as speed-limit free highways and sales-tax-free beef jerky.

So when it comes to predictions, I'll shoot from the hip. Take a chance when I'm not exactly sure. Be blunt and direct and optimistic when I can be.

The second round of Asian qualifying was announced on Tuesday, and while it won't start for another month and won't end for another year, I figured it was best to make predictions within 48 hours.

The nearly-year long second round, 8 groups of 5 will play home and away. The winners, and the top four runners up, will move on to the final round. (That's where your odds as one team in 2 groups of 6 get a heck of a lot better.)

So who will reach those lofty heights?

Group A: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, Timor-Leste, Malaysia
Winner: The Saudis have the higher profile and the richer pedigree, but the United Arab Emirates has had the better run of form lately. With probably the softest competition around them, I'd guess Zayed's Sons have the best chance.

Dark Horse: Set aside the geopolitical turmoil and the fact that their leaders seem hell bent on getting Israel kicked out of FIFA, but Palestine likely offers the best chance at an upset. A squad built on non-local players will never coalesce perfectly, but their familiarity with top flight squads (as seen in a trip to the the AFC Cup in January) will serve them well.
***
Group B: Australia, Jordan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Bangladesh
Winner: This isn't quite a tap-in for The Socceroos but it's close. One of the dominant sides in Asia will have no trouble handling the rivals, the only real match to watch will be against Jordan.

A Socceroo tap in

Dark Horse: Speaking of Jordan, "The Chivalrous" have a strong case to make as one of the top sides in West Asia. They've had great fortune against the lesser sides of Asia (which definitely includes the Bangladeshis, Tajiks and Kyrgyzseseses--okay the Kyrgyz no offense meant), and by cutting their teeth in an endless series of friendlies against higher profile foes they'll keep that strength, take their lumps against Australia and move along.
***
Group C: China, Qatar, Maldives, Bhutan, Hong Kong
Winner: Loathe as I am to give them any credit, Qatar has put just about everything they have into developing a team that will match their stadia by 2022. And in case you're wondering, yes that does include pressuring foreigners into service (including Frenchman Dame Traore, Ghanaian Mohammad Muntari and Brazilian Luiz Junior). A strong 2014 was undercut by a truly underwhelming performance in the Asian Cup, but I think they'll be under pressure to get close this cycle--so they don't become the first team since Italy in 1934--the second cup ever--to host a world cup without having played in one before.

Dark Horse: I'm absolutely drinking Bhutan's Kool-Aid, but I don't care. The low profile, lack of film, high altitude home matches and general "do you believe in miracles vibe" makes the land of the Thunder Dragon an easy squad to root for. In the end they'd need to take points at home against both China and Qatar and sweep all matches against Maldives and Hong Kong, but hey, crazier things have happened.
***
Group D: Iran, Oman, India, Turkmenistan, Guam
Winner: With or without the recently departed Carlos Quieroz, Iran's got too much talent to miss out in this group. A debacle during a penalty shoot out at the Asian Cup this January shouldn't distract from the fact that they were easy front runners at the tournament and should be for this one as well. If they put their minds to it, I'm sure that young striking talents like Sardar Azmoun and Karim Ansarfarid could find some salient suggestions for the nuclear deal too.

Go Go Guam!

Dark Horse: Much as I love plumping for India (where I lived and worked for a few years), the baffling dark horse to root for is Guam. The rare American protectorate that actually IS an underdog, Guam garnered big headlines when they drew at higher profile Singapore. A squad filled with American college kids and MLS developmental talents might not do much against even average Asian sides like a dangerous Omani crew. But they are the ultimate dark horse.
***
Group E: Japan, Syria, Afghanistan, Singapore, Cambodia
Winner: It will take a lot for any of these teams to meaningfully challenge Japan. The Blue Samurai got an excellent draw despite a lackluster World Cup and Asian Cup. Still, they're at the top of the Asian standings and even if they don't consistently bring back European based players they should be able to handle these qualification rivals.

Dark Horse: If one of the other four sides can put together a consistent run against the other three they could pull a surprise especially with other second-tier teams (and Japan) playing so inconsistently. At a guess, I'd put money on Singapore which boasts a young squad with some internationally based players and more who work together at Lions XII bringing cohesion and confidence into the mix (not to mention avoiding the ...but when you lose to Guam...my whole confidence is undermined.
***
Group F: Iraq, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Chinese Taipei
Winner: Credit where it's due, Iraq consistently makes the best of an unusual and often trying situation. They've played the top teams in Asia very closely and make a habit of taking lower-ranked rivals seriously. A few foreign based players (including the Columbus Crew's Justin Meram) show continued promise and growth.

From Left to Right: Chanathip Songkrasin and Kroekrit Thawikan

Dark Horse: The biggest challenge for Iraq will be the frequent long-distance hauls to South East Asia. So the question for a dark horse will be any team who can boast a difficult home environment (to steal a win against the favorites) and real sway over regional rivals. By that standard Thailand is your most likely nominee (just winning the South East Asia Suzuki Cup, boasting a young and growing squad, consistent at home), but that's not anything I'd wager heavily on.
***
Group G: Korea Republic, Kuwait, Lebanon, Myanmar, Laos
Winner: Korea is still one of the preeminent powers in Asian football, perpetual status as bridesmaid's not withstanding. Their growing influence in Europe doesn't hurt matters, world cup qualification is now expected and the rivals here won't slow that down.

Dark Horse: Right now the hottest team for fans of Asian underdogs is Bhutan, but Lebanon was pulling the Cinderella story during the 2014 cycle. They're back again against two teams they beat on the road during the last set of qualifiers, higher regarded Kuwait and Korea. Though it ended with whimper in the final round of qualifying, the Cedars stood tall, and while Kuwait's a more likely runner-up/qualifier. Lebanon is still where my loyalty lies.
***
Group H: Uzbekistan, Bahrain, Philippines, DPR Korea, Yemen
Winner: The Uzbeks have long been a favorite of this blog. After all there's a strong corps of players being augmented by solid youth talents from a growing domestic league. They were in the hunt for a World Cup Spot until the final weeks of the last cycle, and they played well in the Asian Cup this January. Sure their president might be a nut job who made his daughters pop stars, ambassadors, corporate honchos, heirs apparent to the presidency, and then (at least in one case) political prisoners. But still, how 'bout that team, eh?

At least he didn't name them manager

Dark Horse: Maybe it's that they're the only reasonable country in the group. Maybe it's that their nickname is "the Street Dogs". Maybe it's that I'm afraid of Manny Pacquiao. But I feel like the Philippines might be poised for a surprising finish. Bahrain and Korea are both on the slide and Yemen is in turmoil while the Philippines has seen steady results and, in goal keeper Neil Ethridge, boast the only Chelsea trainee in the whole group.

***
12 Teams advancing to third Round (** signifies Top 4 runner up)
UAE
Australia
**Jordan
Qatar
Iran
Japan
Iraq
**Thailand
South Korea
**Kuwait
Uzbekistan
**The Philippines

3 On/3 Off: Asian Cup Edition

So, I was back on schedule, and then...yeah.

We hereby return to our summaries and catch-up of notable (and not-so notable) tournaments starting with the first federation cup of the new cycle: the AFC Asian Cup

On: Tim Cahill (Soccer Legend)
Tim Cahill is to Australlian soccer what Bronco Nagurski is to American football.

That is all.

Off: Australian Fans (Geopolitical Novices)
I'm all for hospitality, but Australian fans took it to a new level expressing their affection for North Korea. The Red Robot wasn't too likely to have a lot of fans in the stands, but that's as much for it's systemic disadvantaging of citizens as it is due to the country's small population. Cheer how you want to Aussies...but just remember that one man's satire is a nut job despot's eternal devotion.

On: South Korea
The Taeguk Warriors are certainly disappointed to have been forced to settle for a fourth silver medal since their last trophy in 1960. (Their four bronzes over the same time don't help either). But set aside the final standings and you can see a dominant squad that only trailed for 45 minutes (the second half of the final) and still managed a stunning equalizer in stoppage time. The resilient South Koreans are certainly worthy of a trophy, and I have every confidence they'll be gunning for one sooner rather than later.
Off: Japan
Meanwhile, Korea's primary rival, Japan's Blue Samurai, were underwhelming, topping a middling Group D before being on the back foot for 74 minutes against the United Arab Emirates en route to their eventual ouster in the quarterfinals. Combine this lackluster showing with the fuzzy and unfocused runs in Brazil both last summer and the year before (at the Confederations' Cup) and Japan doesn't look terribly well prepared for the future.


On: Asia's "Perceived" Third Tier (Uzbekistan/UAE/China/Iraq)
Recent form suggested that China and Iraq had no shot at the second round and that the UAE and Uzbekistan were too unknown to thrive in a bigger tournament. At the end of the tournament Iraq and the UAE finished 3rd & 4th, while China and Uzbekistan topped a group featuring more recent World Cup qualifiers (North Korea/Saudi Arabia).

Off: Asia's "Perceived" Second Tier (Saudi Arabia/Oman/Jordan/Qatar)
The Saudi's remain Asia's most baffling squad, with a fine pedigree and minimal results. The other gulf states with rising standards and results (Oman, Jordan and Qatar)looked totally underwhelming en route to their own early exits. And while none conceded as many goals as debutants Palestine, their standards aren't to compete against Palestine...it's to compete against the other top teams in Asia.

Winnowing the Field: Happy Trails #91-60

It's been a while since our last "Happy Trails" post. But it's high time that we doff our cap and pour out a taste for our departed brethren whose hopes of a trip to Brazil must now be confined to the same "off-peak" lucky break kayak.com searches that the rest of us have.

#91 Adeu Andorra
Why they lost: Inability to capitalize on home-field advantage. Unlike the Ecuadorians who own in Quito, Andorra doesn't get any boost from playing at the highest pitch in Europe (Communal d'Andorra la Vella), ceding 9 goals at home without scoring one.
What we'll miss: Cranky pants Catalan separatists (one step above the Quebecois whose poutine laced tirades are just irritating now)

#90 Bis Spater, Lichtenstein
Why they lost: Any time you lose 8-1 AT HOME you're pretty well sunk. On the plus side that loss was against Bosnia & Herzogovinia, rather than arch rivals Latvia.
What we'll miss: Irritating fans of philately by joking how postage stamps are bigger than Lichtenstein...especially since there is a superb postage stamp museum in the capital, Vaduz

#89 Nagha Naghrak, Malta
Why they lost: Their stunning 1-0 win in Armenia may be the downfall of Armenia's quixotic quest for a World cup bid, but it was also the lone highlight in a dismal campaign with a -14 goal differential.
What we'll miss: Taking the chance to push Malta to stop the frantic shuttling of refugees to and fro across the Mediterranean in rickety, likely doomed boats rather than continuing say...humanitarian aid.

Thanks to Nursultan and Kanye, this is only
the third biggest insult to Kazakhstan

#88 Qosh sau bolyngdar, Kazakhstan
Why they lost: The team has been reeling ever since the 2006 documentary by beloved national journalist Borat Sagdiyev was revealed to be a mockery by British comedian Sascha Baron Cohen. The incessant joking by rival teams often reduces them to tears in the middle of matches.
What we'll miss: Besides obviously dumb Borat jokes there's also Nursultan Nazarbayev, who is rapidly shooting up the charts of moronic, slightly despotic world leaders (and that was before he called in Kanye West to perform at his grandson's wedding

#87 Ya Su, Cyprus
Why they lost: Some teams face a scoring drought, Cyprus faces a scoring dust bowl. It's been a year since the tiny Mediterranean island got to go all goofy celebration style. Since Efstathios Aloneftis scored at home versus Norway in the 42nd minute, Cyprus has been shut out. True they got a win over second place Iceland before that, and a draw with group leading Switzerland after it...but not scoring's definitely not helping.
What we'll miss: The slim possibility that Cyprus could have faced either Turkey or Greece in a playoff, inciting all kinds of patriotic kerfuffels [though hopefully no actual trouble].

Bressan wondering where the
help is. (eurosport.com)

#86 Ubachymsia, Belarus
Why they lost: The Belarusians cannot build on any kind of success in World Cup qualifying. Just miss a playoff spot in '02? Tank in '06. Get your best ever goal differential (plus 5) in '10? Slip back to -8 in '14...and that's even before a game in Spain. 
What we'll miss: Renan Bressan, dominated the Belarusian league, leading it in goals in 2010 and 2011 for league champ FC BATE Borisov. Though he's been less effective in Russia, he is easily the leader of Belarus' youth movement. Okay...he is Belarus' youth movement (if only all Belarusian's were also Brazilian)

#85 A Pli Tard, Moldova
Why they lost: Failure to face San Marino more than twice in the qualifying process. Sure there a FIFA rules and everything, but come on Moldova, don't be so small minded.
What we'll miss: A few young talents mark Moldova as a potentially improving team, particularly if Artur Ionita (already a hot commodity in the Swiss league) and Serghei Gheorgiev become a powerful midfield combination for the next few decades.

#84 Xudaafiz, Azerbaijain
Why they lost: Five draws in eight matches, isn't bad, but it's not exactly the stuff that winning campaigns are made of either...hence the whole "draw" thing.
What we'll miss: Their national team logo. Half ball on fire. Half-paint company advertisement

#83 Kargard Iqaveet, Georgia
Why they lost: Pulling a nil-nil draw against France at home in Tiblisi was a great result for the Crusaders. But it came a little late in the qualification for it to matter much, or at all, so it ends up being just a nice consolation prize.
What we'll miss: Awkward conversations in which fans of Uga the bulldog think they've done something worth drinking about. Even though they'll still take the opportunity to drink about it.

#82 Pob Hwyl, Wales

Why they lost: It didn't help that Gareth Bale was unwilling to play both Forward spots, defend, goaltend and sell the popcorn.
What we'll miss: International media swooning over Mr. Bale for a whole World Cup...thereby keeping the focus on Messi, Neyemar and half-a-dozen other Nike branded superstars.

#81 Eddi, Luxembourg

BE WARNED LUC HOLTZ!

Why they lost: The goalkeeping is more than a little suspect for the Red Lions. Ceding 9 goals in two matches against Israel, and matches ahead against Russia and Portugal. Without keeping the biscuit out of the basket, it's a little tough to get ahead in life.
What we'll miss: Threatening Luxembourgish coach Luc Holtz with the aged spectre of his future: Lou Holtz.

#80 Slan go foill, Northern Ireland

Why they lost: Despite a 1-0 win over Russia, the Norn Iron struggled to find a decent run of success at Winfield Park in Belfast. Losses to Israel and Portugal hurt, draws with Luxembourg and Azerbaijan were the real crusher.
What we'll miss: Working with a number of Belfast-bred teachers, my Northern Irish accent is better than my Irish, so I guess I'll miss irritating friends and family.

#79 Jumalaga, Estonia

Why they lost: Attacking midfielder, Joel Lindpere does a marvelous job for both the blue shirts of Estonia and the blue and red of the Chicago Fire. But at 31 he's a bit old for the national team...as are the 9 other regular team members who trot out against Europe's freshest talents.
What we'll miss: The chance to trot out my 9th Grade "World Cultures" report factoids about Estonia (culled from the 1997 World Book Encyclopedia). Did you know that one of Estonia's major exports is "ore"? Or...was back in 1997?

#78 Sveiki Latvia

Why they lost: They didn't look great in any qualifier, but it might help to have some forwards who could balance out the defensive aura cast by Captain Kaspars Grokss and youngster Vitalijs Maksimenko.
What we'll miss: The chance for Latvians to take those heathen Lithuanians down a peg.

#77 Dogledanje, Macedonia

Why they lost: The Red Lynx have the distinct disadvantage to be building a new generation of talent cobbled together by a wealth of players who ply their trade anywhere but Macedonia. From Captain Goran Pandav with Napoli to youngster David Babunski on the Barcelona B team, Macedonians really only get to play together in camps making cohesion and development a bit tough.
What we'll miss: Snooty arthouse showings of films by cinematic pioneers Yanaki and Milton Manaki, it's hard to imagine many soccer fans who wouldn't also enjoy a little art house falderal.

C'mon Lithuania, give us more Arvydas!

#76 Iki Greito Pasimatmyo, Lithuania

Why they lost: In their last two matches in the group, the Lithuanians fielded a team with a combined 20 goals over a combined 385 caps...and that was the line up with fire power (scoring three goals against Latvia and Lichtenstein)
What we'll miss: Arvydas Sabonis.

#75 Nakemiin, Finland

Why they lost: The Eagle-Owls were doomed the minute they got lumped into group I with Spain and France. Even a draw away to Spain couldn't keep them in the hunt.
What we'll miss: A distraction for our Finnish friends in those long brutal summer months between sled-dog racing season.

#74 Do Videnja, Serbia

2nd 2010 entrant Eliminated

Why they lost: What happened, Serbia? A team that was all prospect and potential, that offered so many talented players and such a strong defense that they were considered a model of Eastern European strength on the international scene. Qualifying for the cup as Serbia and Montegro in '06 and as just plain Serbia in 2010 they seemed poised to be a long term power. But Dejan Stankovic and Nemanja Vidic proved to be too integral to team success and with their declines and retirements coinciding with increased struggles in Europe
What we'll miss: The chance for my wife and her slew of proudly Serbian relatives (from the great city of Red Lodge Montana) to bubble over with national pride during the cup.

#73 Zbohom, Slovakia

3rd 2010 Entrant Eliminated

Why they lost: Slovakia's decline was far more predictable. A seemingly fluk-ish qualifying in 2010, a stunning upset of a lethargic Italy in the group stage before flaming out against Holland in the round of 16 and then struggles in qualifying for Europe 2012 and the World Cup. They should have had a better chance with an inconsistent Greece as their main rival for qualification, but losses at home to the Greeks and Bosnia/Herzogovina sealed their return to the fringes of futbol attention.
What we'll miss: The slim chance of Turn-Back-The-Clock Uniform night with piratey shirts and stirrup socks.

#72 Jojoechajevypeve, Paraguay

4th 2010 Entrant Eliminated

Why they lost: Paraguay's fall from grace is closer to down right baffling. Four straight qualifications for the cup. A quarter-final berth in 2010. They don't seem like they should be dismissed so decisively (unlike say, the North Koreans). But when you can't get a win anywhere on the road AND drop home matches to Argentina, Chile and...Venezuela? Well, I guess Roque Santa Cruz and Justo Villar had to get old at some point. 

What we'll miss: Long Guarini ramblings from my grad school friends, and groomsman (all of whom have extensive experience in Paraguay)

#71 Wauslegga, Bolivia
Why they lost: Long the forgotten cousin Oliver of South American qualifying, the "green ones" seemed to save their best for the biggest teams on the continent: beating perennial qualifiers Paraguay, and semi-finalists Uruguay at home, and drawing with Argentina on the road. And while those performances might have been nice, they meant doodly-squat when you can't beat Venezuela or Peru anywhere.
What we'll miss: Our quadrennial: Hey! Remember Marco Etcheverry moment. Speaking of which, HEY! Remember Marco Etcheverry? Good times...good times.

That's a Peruvian team we can get behind

#70 Uq Ratukama, Peru

Why they lost: The Incas' stubborn refusal to build a stadium atop Machuu Pichu. C'mon, if Quito is tough to play in Machu Pichu's going to be helacious and there's no way you drop matches to Columbia and Uruguay at home then.
What we'll miss: Analyzing the soccer team's strength in comparison with the Quidditch team's strength.

#69 Salang sentle, Botswana

Why They Lost: The Zebras have a rather punchless offense, with just two goals to their name (both at home, in a draw and a loss). Their youngest stars are defenders and midfielders so, that probably won't change any time soon.

What We'll Miss: Inspiration for another Alexander McCall Smith collection of mysteries for The Ladies No. 1 Detective Agency. ("The Zebra in Brazil"?)

#68 Magha, Gabon
Why They Lost: The Panthers had a slim shot at qualification in their final match, and fielded a rather young and alotgether inexperienced team. They did not keep up with Burkina Faso and were summarily ousted from the tournament.
What We'll Miss: Like Estonia previously, the chance to trot out my 9th Grade Geography report on Gabon, ahem: "Albert Schwietzer, the famous doctor, spent many years serving the people of Gabon." You're welcome everyone who doesn't look at Wikipedia.

#67 Tionana, Malawi

Why They Lost: Trailing Nigeria by two points, the Flames needed a win to stun the world and knock out the Super Eagles. Sadly they went to Calabar, Nigeria, and were utterly overwhelmed on the road, squandering their shot.

What We'll Miss: Midfielder Tawango Chimodzi flashing that sweet, sweet Greek paycheck as the lone Malawian national team player to be based in Europe.

Even if he's a scientologist, better
Whitaker than Amin...

#66 Mweraba, Uganda

Why They Lost: So many players flying in from so far afield (Iceland, the US, Vietnam and Poland to name but four) had very little time to gel as a unit in Marrakesh ahead of their do-or-die-tilt against Senegal. Unsurprisingly, the cranes died.
What We'll Miss: Forrest Whitaker attempting to rally the troops as Idi Amin in the worst-inspirational-sports-speech ever.

#65 Allah Yismallak, Libya

Why They Lost: Honestly? I don't know, maybe there was just a little too much going on with the political instability, the threat of losing one's homes, families and welfare and the tremendous national pressure on them to steal a victory over Cameroon in their last match. Or maybe they knew that it's just a game...not life-and-death, especially as they have seen life-and-death.
What We'll Miss: Pointing and laughing at stupid Ghadaffi mistakes.

#64 Ate Logo, Cape Verde Islands

Why They Lost: Back in June I wrote that the problem was "Late blooming. The Tubaroes Azuis (Blue Sharks) started out with three straight losses, but big wins this month against Equitorial Guinea and Sierra Leone saw them up to second in their group behind Tunisia. A little earlier and The Eagles of Carthage might have had some competition."--Now the solution is simpler: "Inability to read rules and regulations"--If Cape Verde had held one man out of their line up against Tunisia they'd be mulling a play-off match up instead of how to spend the winter in Cape Verde. (Might we suggest living on a beautiful island...oh yeah...you already do that.)
What We'll Miss: Hipsters trotting out Cape Verde jerseys in an effort to be cool and obscure.

#63 Tikala Malamu, Congo

Why They Lost: Credit to the Red Devils, they went from the play-in games to within one point of the  World Cup Playoffs (a feat that Ethiopia actually did accomplish), and with a scad of talented young players breaking into Europe they likely won't have to work as hard in the future.
What We'll Miss: The burgeoning play-making combo of Delvin N'Dinga and Prince Oniangue.

First of many, Emmanuel...

#62 Fikani Biwo, Zambia

Why They Lost: Even for a hard core Black Stars supporter like myself, it's a little tough to say goodbye to the Copper Bullets, one of the true feel good stories of African football. Coming off a 2012 Cup of Nations Title, Zambia gave Ghana all they could handle and more in the qualifying region's group of death. Sadly some untimely draws (away at Lesotho and home v. Sudan) saw them off despite beating the Black Stars at home.
What We'll Miss: With 35 caps at age 20, Emmanuel Mbola is clearly going to be a fixture of the backline for years to come. And while he might not have netted the high profile transfer to Spurs at age 17, he still has plenty of time to get a pay day.

#61 Sizobonana, South Africa

The 5th 2010 World Cup Finalist eliminated

Why They Lost: Since the heartbreaking "goals-scored" tiebreaker nocked Bafana Bafana out of the 2002 World Cup, the once rising power in Africa has fallen on hard times, after a lackluster showing at home (with only a win over an absolutely incompetent French team) they're back to their "not-quite-good-enough" status, even when their group includes Botswana and Ethiopia
What We'll Miss: The soothing sound of vuvuzelas...wait..no, I won't miss that.

#60 Ertagacha khair, Uzbekistan

Why They Lost: I'll own this one. I've been boosting the White Wolves chances since I saw them give an excellent performance in the 2011 Asian Cup not to mention some good U-20 performances. They had a lead going into the final stages of Asian qualifying only to see Iran squeeze past the post and then fall to Jordan in a heartbreaking penalty shootout. Sure it's easiest to lay the blame on Anzur Ismailov for the final miss...but at this point, a loss is a loss and the best thing to do is hope it turns out better next time around.

What We'll Miss: Smug self-satisfaction in assuming I spotted Uzbek greatness before it happened.

Waning Seconds: The AFC Playoff Picture

Okay, show of hands for how many people found this website by googling "AFC Playoff Picture" after the first weekend of the NFL season.

That's what I thought.

Still, you should stick around, because if there's one thing American sports fans like, it's a winner-take-all battle for supremacy: like the Superbowl, or the Spanish-American War.

On Tuesday it will be Jordan versus Uzbekistan live from Takshent, Uzbekistan...wait...wait...they're playing soccer...okay, now all the American football fans are gone.

Credit: AFP via FIFA

Server Likes Trophies

Still, that's okay because it should be a thrilling game in Takshent where two teams who have never reached this stage of the competition battle for a spot in the intercontinental final four play in games. Having drawn 1-1 in Amman, it's still anybodies match, but Uzbekistan will be considered slight favorites due to the away goal scored by Server Djeperov, the Korean based national team captain.

For those who aren't up to date on their Uzbeki soccer stars. Djeperov won the Asian player of the year award in 2008 and has been a fixture of the national side since 2006. While Uzbekistan gets a lot of (justly deserved) credit for being a team of young talents, Djeperov remains the group's obvious leader. And while he has done a fine job of bridging the gap to younger talents like forward Bahodir Nasimov, midfielders Odil Ahmedov and Sanzhar Tursunov and defenders Vitaly Denisov and Islom Tuktakhodjaev, there's a long way to go before the new guys can do it by themselves.

The Uzbek's biggest question mark heading into the home leg is goalie Murod Zukhurov who will be making just his fourth appearance for the national team at age 30. Long slotted behind Ignatiy Nesterov, Zurkhov has a chance to make a name for himself in the biggest way by pitching a clean sheet against Jordan and setting up a final push against whatever team CONMEBOL offers up.

Of course, shutting out the The Chivalrous (as Al-Nashama translates to) may be easier said than done. Needing at least a 2-2 draw to move forward automatically, Jordan will be throwing everything they have at the White Wolves (including the kitchen sink and maybe even Prince Ali bin al Hussein's private jet--the one they flew to Uzbekistan).

That's a happy Deeb

Better than jets and kitchen sinks will be the Jordanian forwards: Abdallah Deeb has been their most potent scoring option for the better part of the last six years, and at 26 is still the youngest regular forward on the team. But the reason Jordan's going to Uzbekistan with everything to play for is young midfielder Mossab al-Laham, who recently completed a one million dollar transfer to Saudi Arabia's SC Najran. At 22 (and already with 2 goals in just 10 caps), al-Laham should be a vital portion of Jordan's attack for a long time to come.

Al-Laham should keep learning his skills from team captain Amer Deeb, whose 123 caps are topped only by keeper Amer "The Whale" Shafia. And though the team has a relatively new manager in Hossam Hassan, you could hardly ask for a better guide to the world's brightest stage than Egypt's all-time leading goal scorer (especially since said leading goal-scorer supported Hosni Mubarak and probably ought to stay out of Egypt for a little while longer).

So, to sum up. Uzbekistan needs to keep the score low and will trust a rookie keeper to do it; Jordan needs a couple goals for sure and have experience both up top and in back to make it happen. And shoddy though the Jordanian's road record has been (0-4 in Group 4 play), the Uzbek's weren't lights out at home either (dropping 0-1 to Iran when direct qualification was almost within reach).

Much as I've been beating the drum of Uzbekistan as a dark horse special, I've got a bad feeling for the White Wolves and think that Jordan may be on the verge of springing a major upset. The beautiful thing is, the game is not in my mind it's on the pitch, so however it turns out, it should be exciting.

Oh and just in case you're an American who stuck it out this long waiting for the subject to change: take the Broncos, and Patriots for the bye, plus the Texans, Bengals, Steelers and miracle Chiefs--with the Broncs going to the Super Bowl...though unless Abdullah Deeb signs on to catch Peyton Manning's passes, I'm not that interested.

Waning Seconds: ASIA UPDATE!

A few weeks ago we ran down how every Asian team still had a chance to qualify for the world cup.

Yeah...that's not so much the case any more.

So here now is a run down on how it can play out tomorrow as three more tickets are punched for Brazil and one serious squabble is set for September.

First Match

Yup...it's adorable

Australia plays Iraq in Sydney in the first game of the day. The Iraqis must be disappointed not to parlay recent AFC success into a World Cup bid, but they could always settle for ruining the Socceroos day.

A win for Australia sees them straight to Brazil, anything less and they have to stay up late to see what happens between Oman and Jordan

Group A Simulcast

The most thrilling part of qualification is playing right in the midst of another match that could just as easily determine your destiny. That's the situation for South Korea, Iran and Uzebekistan (Qatar too...but they were left in the dust on the last match day so a four way battle is out of the question).

South Korea's goal is simplest. Get a point at home against Iran and you're going down South America way. Having won all their home tilts so far this campaign it seems likely.

Jon Snow is rooting for Uzbekistan

If South Korea does win, Uzbekistan can make history by winning their own match and vaulting the White Wolves into their first ever World Cup. But if they draw or lose, they'll have to face the third place finisher in Group B for the chance to face the fifth place team in South America for a spot in Brazil.

And, then again, Iran can screw everything up (after all, it is Iran). A win and they're in. A Uzbekistan draw or loss, and they're in. But if Iran wins mightily (like they did against Lebanon) and Uzbekistan wins mightily, then South Korea crashes down to third place. OR, if Iran draws and Uzbekistan wins mightily, then they Ayatollah's favored 11 have to do the 5th-place-playoff.

And just in case entry to the most prestigious tournament on the planet isn't enough drama for you, now the Koreans and Iranians are jawing at each other about "poor treatment" "humiliation" and subtle hints at match fixing...I'm guessing that match will have a little extra juice to it.

Final Match

The real thrill of the day comes at the end of the day in Amman, Jordan, but it depends largely on what happens in Australia six-and-a-half hours earlier.

When even a little soccer blog
takes potshots at you...you should
be sad

The visiting Red Warriors of Oman could easily settle for a draw to solidify their spot in third place/the fifth place playoff (a new record for their nation), especially if Australia wins in which case they couldn't do better than third anyway. But if the Socceroos fall, the door opens for Oman and a victory would set an even better new record: World Cup qualification. (An Australia draw plus a seven goal victory of Jordan would also see them through...but come on, there's a better chance of Keanu Reeves winning a Tony award than there is of that happening.)

The home team will be desperate for a win, as they need all three points just to move in to third (an Australia loss plus a highly unlikely 8 goal swing in goal differential is the only way they've got to get in directly).

So there it is, six teams are set to battle for three sure thing spots and two awkward third-place will-they-or-won't-they playoffs.

Waning Seconds: Asia

In just a little more than a week, the last matches of AFC qualifying will begin and we will start slotting our first, official, not-host-nation entrants into the World Cup. As we approach these crucial three weeks worth of games, it's worth noting that every team could still work their way into the cup. And so we present (from most likely to least likely) the scenarios for who will qualify from the AFC

Already Looking At Airfares

Japan (Remaining Matches (6/4--v. Australia; 6/11--@Iraq)

They Qualify If: They get 1 point from either remaining match

They Go to a Play-off If: They lose both matches and Jordan & Iraq win all remaining

They Stay Home Next Summer If: A giant prehistoric lizard thing rises up from the Pacific and decimates Tokyo 

THAT WAY TO BAGGAGE CLAIM!

Confederation champions, top of their group, persistent qualifiers and all around dominant force of Asian football, Japan really is pretty good to go. It would take a pair of crippling losses to Australia and Iraq coupled with Jordan and Australia winning out in huge fashion to knock them down to the play-in games. (Since Jordan and Australia play eachother on June 11th, they'll have to do something pretty fancy in order to both win.) Realistically, if you love Japanese football, you can start booking plane tickets, pricing thongs, stocking up on sunscreen and taking Samba lessons because barring a total disaster, you're going to Brazil next summer.

A Game in Hand is Worth Two in the Bush...or Table Or Something

Right next to Japan in the pantheon of Asian football powers, South Korea and Australia are pretty solid bets for any World Cup now-a-days. And though neither are at the top of their qualifying tables, both have three games left to gain points and get into the final round of competition.

South Korea (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Lebanon; 6/11--v. Uzbekistan; 6/18--v. Iran])

They Qualify IF: They get a couple wins in their last matches

They go to Play-off IF: They get three points

They Stay Home Next Summer IF: Kim Jong Un gets an itchy trigger finger

All South Korea really needs is a point from each of their three final matches (@ Lebanon and home for Uzbekistan and Iran) and they're golden. Well...actually, all South Korea needs is a point from each of  their final three matches AND somebody to eliminate all the nukes in North Korea and they're golden. And hey, hit four points and you don't even need to worry about the continental play-off.

Australia (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Japan; 6/11--v. Jordan; 6/18--v. Iraq])
They Qualify IF: They meet expectations
They go to Play-off IF: They continue to underwhelm
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: The wheels fall off the wagon, the shrimp fall off the barbi, and the Fosters plant moves to Holland.

Things are slightly trickier for the Socceroos who have to start with Japan (in a definite struggle that might see them slip out of even third place). But their final two matches (at home versus Jordan [who can't win away from Amman] and Iraq [already beaten by Australia]) offer plenty of points to a merely competent Australian squad.

"Donnie, You're Out of Your Element!"

Unlike the first three teams I wrote about, Uzebekistan and Jordan would be big dance debutants should their current positions hold. But they have one less game to play than their more experienced rivals, and they have little control over what really happens.

Uzbekistan (Remaining Matches [6/11--@South Korea; 6/18 v. Qatar])

Do you recognize these men?

They Qualify IF: The young guns like Sanzhar Tursunov and Farhod Tojiyev pull out at least one big win.
They go to Play-off IF: The old timers like Server Djeparov and Timur Kapadze refuse to let a great start go wrong and get at least a point from each match.
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: All the players want to avoid awkward mispronunciations of their names on international television and they tank the last couple matches

Uzbekistan's youth program has been impressive of late and may make for a compelling dark horse in Brazil. But to get there they'll likely need at least three points to put themselves in the playoffs, and rather than banking on a win in Seoul on the 11th, they'll likely gear up for a more winnable match against Qatar in Tashkent on the 18th.

Jordan (Remaining Matches [6/11--@ Australia; 6/18--v.s. Oman
They Qualify IF: They finally pack their A-Game on the road and defend home turf (as usual)
They go to Play-off IF: They defend home but continue to scuffle on the road.
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They scuffle both home and away.

Meanwhile Jordan's Al-Nashama (The Chivalrous) have a more closely packed group with three teams behind them, all within two points of second place. Having failed to get a single point on the road in this group, Jordan has to head for Melbourne on the 11th, before closing out with Oman on the 18th. To be fair, the Socceroos have drawn both of their home ties this campaign, so a point in Melbourne isn't out of the question, but if The Chivalrous want to make King Abdullah proud, they definitely need the win in Amman (and then hope for a fair shot in the continental play-offs)

Literally...Everything to Play For

Iran (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Qatar; 6/11--v. Lebanon; 6/18--@ South Korea])
They Qualify IF: They want to live like heroes
They go to Play-off IF: They want to live
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They want to live like heroes of a revolution

Iran has a long and storied history in international football (like Japan, South Korea and Australia); they also have three games still to play (like South Korea and Australia), but they have a slightly more challenging task ahead of them. They're already 3 points back of South Korea, and need multiple results in their favor to pull ahead of Uzbekistan. They have to face the two underdog teams in Lebanon and Qatar whose whole campaigns hinge on beating Team Melli, before finishing IN South Korea.

Khameni prefers a 4-3-4

Then there's this: Iran's presidential election is scheduled for June 14th (between the Lebanon and South Korean matches). It will be the first election in Iran since the Arab Spring and the Green Revolution that threatened full scale rebellion during the last election (2009). Mahmoud Ahmadinijad will not be running. The Aytollah has blocked genuine reformers including former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani from candidacy. And the national team includes Masoud Shojaei and Captain Javad Nekounam who both suddenly "retired" after supporting the Green Revolution protestors publicly during their last qualifying campaign. Add to all of this the fact that qualifying for the World Cup is a welcome distraction from domestic troubles, but failing to qualify for the World Cup kind of, sort of, endangers really any ruling party in any country anywhere.

SO! If Iran beats Qatar and Lebanon, not only will they qualify for at least the continental play-offs, but the elections likely go off without a hitch, protecting players for another year or more and installing another hardline reformer who follows the will of the Ayatollahs. If Iran drops either or (inshallah) BOTH games, the populace (particularly young men with nothing better to do) will likely be dissatisfied, the elections are jeopardized and Shojaei and Nekounam (plus any other idealistic young athletes) have to face the awkward decision of whether they stand up with their fellow citizens and risk expulsion from the team [again] OR if they shut up and play out the string as their country roils from the inside out.

That's a little bit of pressure, wouldn't you say?

Clinging to the Cliff Face

I kind of want in on this party!

Oman (Remaining Matches [6/4--v.s. Iraq; 6/18--@Jordan])
They Qualify IF: They dominate their last two opponents and run up the goal differential
They go to Play-off IF: They just take care of business
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They decide they don't want to allow jabronis around the world to shout "Oh, man! Oman lost again!" and throw the last two matches

As we noted with Jordan, there are four teams bunched within 2 points of each other. And all that comes to a head when Iraq and Oman square off in Muscat on the 4th of June. A win for Oman and they can write their own ticket, they'll be just a point in Jordan away from a minimum 3rd place finish. 

Iraq (Remaining Matches [6/4--@Oman; 6/11--v.s. Japan; 6/18@Australia])
They Qualify IF: They rule and their opponents drool.
They go to Play-off IF: They do well and their opponents do slightly less well...
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They are average and their opponents are a little better than that.

Meanwhile, a win for Iraq puts the recent Asian title holders on a brutal final set of matches, at home versus Japan and in Australia. Best case scenario: Iraq beats Oman while Japan wraps up their qualifying with a win over Australia. Then Japan rests their stars allowing Iraq an easy three points in the second match, setting up a decisive final match against Australia (who pull a measly draw with Jordan in their second match), with momentum going all the way of the Lions of Mesopotamia. Worst case scenario: literally anything else happens.

Qatar (Remaining Matches [6/4--v. Iran; 6/18--@Uzbekistan])
They Qualify IF: They shock they world
They go to Play-off IF: They mildly surprise the world
They Stay Home Next Summer IF:  They totally underwhelm the world

And then there's Qatar the little nation that wants so badly to prove they aren't the corrupt ne'er-do-wells who swiped away the 2022 World Cup from other countries. Their chance to prove exactly that starts on the 4th in Doha where a win over Iran would go a long way to improving their odds (and ruining Iran's). Provided that Iran and Uzbekistan scuffle in their June 11th matches (against Lebanon and South Korea respectively) that sets the stage for Qatar to slip in if they win big in Uzbekistan on the 18th.

Slim To None

Lebanon (Remaining Matches [6/4--v.South Korea; 6/11--@Iran])
They Qualify Directly IF: They refuse to lose and other teams refuse to win
They go to Play-off IF: They refuse to lose and one team stubbornly meets expectations
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They accept their own limitations and find satisfaction in their accomplishments to this point.

We've been driving the Lebanon bandwagon for over a year and a half now. But there is only one path that can get our beloved Cedars into a qualifying scenario. They need to win their last two matches: against South Korea in Beirut and at Tehran and then hope that Qatar and Iran draw their own match (June 4th during the South Korea game) and lose/draw the rest of the way.

Any outright victory for either the Qatari or the Iranians and Lebanon would have to get a massive swing in goal differential, or a horrific plague of gout in the other countries...so, better win now.

Those are all the ways that Asian qualification could end. And while we would love to see Japan, Australia, South Korea, and the Uzbeks make it in (with Lebanon squeaking into the intercontinental playoffs) We have to admit, it's a tetchy possibility at best. 

One thing's for sure. Monday Morning Futbol is going to be a whole lot of fun for the next three weeks.

AFC WIBD Round 4: Stand Still and Conquer

We're back to the "Well-I'll-Be-Darned" awards, recognizing unlikely teams who still have a shot at qualifying for the World Cup Finals in Brazil.


We'll start with the team closest to qualification...the mighty Cedars of Lebanon the first team to ever win a regional WIBD Award two rounds running!

Yes, Lebanon moved on despite being the lowest ranked qualifier for the AFC's 3rd Round. This was a team that wasn't supposed to beat Bangladesh in Round 2. But they topped the Tigers and moved on to face the UAE, Kuwait and South Korea. None of whom they'd beaten in a World Cup competition over the last 20 years earning our praise in the process.

As many predicted, Lebanon suffered an early smack down at the hands of South Korea. But then beat the UAE at home, drew with Kuwait, beat Kuwait IN Kuwait City and pulled the biggest stunner of all: topping Asian giant South Korea 2-1 in Beirut to move on to the next round of the competition.

Despite my laziness and lackadaisical/nonexistent posting, Lebanon has continued on in the competition battling Korea (again), rising power Uzbekistan, fading power Iran, and embattled future cup hosts Qatar.

An early loss in Beirut to Qatar put the Trees on the ropes, and while they salvaged a point against the Uzbeks, another loss in South Korea have left them in dire need of as many points as possible, as quickly as possible.

Still, we remain optimistic that Lebanon can do just that. Start with the fact that the rest of the world has started to take notice. The UN used the symbol of a football team bringing unity to a war torn country as the basis for a unifying tv show. Even the BBC covered their rise to prominence. The Australian Socceroo's are a little worried ahead of an upcoming friendly match, and while Captain Roda Antar will be unavailable due to injury, the rest of the first squad should be available for the critical upcoming matches at home against Iran and in Qatar.

NOT Coach Bucker

Coach Theo Bucker (not revenge of the Nerds star: Booger) remains a focal point for the team. The players love him, even if the fans are dubious of his goalie choices, preferring local veteran Ziad Al-Samad, to Swedish based 23 year old novice Abbas Hassan. A summer time struggle to qualify for the regional Arab Cup increased the pressure on Bucker.

Still Bucker's got a vision to make the Cedars not just a success this year, but a constant presence in Asia's upper echelon, by mirroring the Japanese model of developing great local coaches and ensuring long term growth.

Nader Matar, a stylish young man
in need of a nickname

That effort will likely be helped by the rise of young international talents from the Lebanese diaspora. In addition to Hassan playing in Sweden other young talents like 22 year old Ahmad Zreik (in Greece) and Nader Matar (in Spain) promise to serve up balls to the prodigious young talent Hasaan Matoouk. {But seriously guys we need to come up with some nicknames, how about Nader "To"Matar? Huh? A little vegetable punning?)

It's been great to have a team not just to cheer for but to cheer for as they actually excel! We Montanan Soccer Hooligans will continue to rally as much support as we can for Lebanon. Fight on you mighty Cedars! Stand still and conquer!

2014 World Cup Qualifying Begins

We're still six weeks away from the first draw to organize qualifying for the 2014 World Cup, but there are a few preliminary matters to deal with first.

Those preliminary matters include getting rid of most miniscule minnows in all of FIFA...you know...the ones who have more sway in the organization's boardrooms and backrooms than on the pitch. Their votes count in presidential elections...their athletes...eh, not so much.

Last night we got started with Belize topping Montserrat 5-2. I know what you're thinking: How could Montserrat lose? Well, let me ask you, if you lived in the place pictured at right...would your first concern be playing futbol...or avoiding volcanic ash and enjoying the sunshine?

At any rate. Belize V. Montserrat is only one of the preliminary games before the draw, the bigger issues are afoot in Asia where the 38 lowest rated teams play home-and-home playoffs to determine the lucky few who will get whomped by medium-sized talents in Bahrain and China...or if you're really lucky...Australia! (eep!) some of these will be all over by July 3rd, others won't even have the first leg start until July 23rd, wrapping up matches two days before the initial draw in Rio.

Whenever I watch or think about these games, I think of the Royal Rumbles I used to watch when I was a kid. If you watch pro wrestling you know what happens, put a bunch of guys in a small space and watch as one by one they throw each other over the side. No one wins anything...just a shot at the title. Only in this case, instead of sweaty men pretending that people believe they really are diabolical morticians or hip-hop heavyweights, there's a bunch of sweaty men pretending that they actually have a shot at the world title (it's adorable!).

The biggest matches kick-off around July 23rd with former World Cup contestants Iran, Saudi Arabia rising threat Uzbekistan and ex-Asian Champ Iraq in action. It's unlikely that they lose to their opponents (the Maldives, Hong Kong, Kyrgystan and Yemen respectively)...but like the Royal Rumble you never really know until it's underway. (Sure Iran's the Randy Macho Man Savage of Asian futbol...but Macho Man is gone...maybe Iran's doomed for the same fate?)

Through all the action we'll try to give a quick update, including quick adieus to each team as they bow out (it may only be a paragraph but it's the least we can do to honor the players, fans and delusional gamblers who thought they might have a shot).

Check back for more news later, after all, you never know when I'm going to randomly connect Randy Savage and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

January 2011: 3 On/3 Off

We'll try and set this up so that each month we review the most important information about world football gleaned from matches, competitions and news. (Hopefully there's always something to talk about.) And to do that, we'll think about three heroes subbed onto the pitch, and three out of form slugs heading for the bench with their heads hanging low.

3 Coming On:

Japan in General and Kaisuke Honda in particular:

Winning the Asian Cup is a little like being the greatest best baseball team in triple A. You've got a trophy and god knows you deserve it...but everyone knows in their heart of hearts that it might not be that way if you had to play a big-time, high-profile squad of superstars in the making.

Still, the blue samurai deserve to be congratulated. And unlike the Albuquerque Isotopes, they will get to play some high-profile superstars this summer when they head down to the Copa America to try their luck against Brazil and Argentina. Win that and I'll genuflect and beg forgiveness...until then, I'll just keep clapping politely

Except for Kaisuke Honda. After a sterling World Cup he won man of the tournament honors in Qatar and set the stage for his continued rise to the title of Asia's top footballer. Sniggering over his relationship to the car factory needs to stop...he looks like he's for real.

Feeling Good in Qatar

The Asian Cup was chock full of good stories. The hosts overcame their minnow-ish ranking and made a strong showing against eventual champions Japan. The Uzbeks were a surprise entry into the semi-finals (except not to me...because I predicted it...because I'm AWESOME!). And for a brief period of time the Australians were able to distract their countrymen from surging flood waters with some stellar football and a near miss in the final match. Kudos Asia, Kudos!

Spain...the system everyone wants a part of

Just in case the fawning adoration of the World Cup winners wasn't enough, FIFA pointed out the supremacy of Spanish Football at their annual awards ceremonies in Zurich. And while the Spaniards didn't walk away with any major individual hardware...their system and league gave a full throated power yell of domination to anyone who still thought Spain's best contribution to recent world history was tapas.

Lionel Messi (Barcelona's wunderkind) won the Ballon d'Or. Jose Mourinho (Mr. Jump on the Bandwagon/Real Madrid) won the coach of the year. And the Fifa Pro World XI features 8 La Liga representatives and 6 Spanish Nationals. Investing in all that talented football may have diverted funds from other areas like...say...the crippling Iberian debt crisis...but hey! SHINY TROPHIES!! (Suck on that England)

3 Heading off

Saudi Arabia: The Riyadh Zoo

Here in America we have a long and storied history of teams that are quite simply CRAZY. The Bronx Zoo of the New York Yankees in the 1970s, The Portland Jail Blazers from the turn of the millenia, The Cincinatti Bengals of...well...pretty much forever. But no matter what your preferred local sport, few crazy ass teams can compete with the insanity of Saudi Arabia at the Asian Cup.

Lose your first game (2:1 to Syria), that's bad...but maybe not: fire the coach this second bad. Still, the Saudi's made their choice and went in confident against Jordan...where they lost again (1:0). It's hard to fire a coach after one match, so instead King Abdullah fired federation president (Prince Sultan Bin Fahd) and replaced him with Prince Nawaf Bin Faisal. Surely, after cleaning house of these losers, a meaningless game against a half-strength already progressed Japan would give them the chance to lick their wounds, learn their lessons. Or...lose 5:0 and lead to the sacking of their second coach in three matches. (Cue the slow sarcastic clap)

A Break-away Confederation?

I listen regularly to the BBC's World Football podcast (and if you're reading this website hoping for news I suggest you look there instead). Last week the Beeb broke the story of scuttlebutt surrounding a new Confederation that could be created by merging Oceania with East Asia. The move makes sense for a few people. First, Australia could stop pretending to be Asian. Second, Japan and South Korea could have lovely holidays in New Caldonia. Finally, China could bid for the World Cup in 2026 and really stick it to the Qatari federation and AFC president Mohammed Bin Hammam.

But once you dig a little deeper this is a terrible plan. Oceania gets nothing but a pack of guaranteed ass-kickings in Tokyo, Seoul and Sydney. The whole scheme completely undermines FIFA authority and sets up more snide bickering between bureaucrats (leading to more back stage wheeling and dealing rather than less). North America would likely get bumped to one-side AGAIN in the continental rotation order (and with Europe likely to throw a tantrum for 2030, our next shot would be 2034...22 years after the Mayan apocolypse!). Nice try East Asia (and Australia)...but no...just no.

Qatar's Crickets

One little bone to pick with Qatar after the AFC Cup...seriously? you broke the bank to win the World Cup and you the only two full houses you can draw are for the home team versus Japan...and the final? I've seen bigger houses for operas in Butte! I've met more dedicated footie fans in remote hillside villages of India! Come on guys...show us why you won it. (Unless it's through corruption in which case please give no sign).

AFC Cup Outrounds!

It's crunch time in Qatar and no...I'm not referring to the home stretch of a camel race. Today begins the out rounds of the AFC cup, and shockingly, for someone with absolutely no experience, I did pretty well on my predictions of the quarter finalists.

Japan, Uzbekistan, Australia, South Korea, Iran and Iraq all came through for me, with only China and Saudi Arabia (who fired two coaches in three matches) falling short. So the new darlings are Jordan and...yup...Qatar. I'm wondering if they're winning through illegality or through sheer antagonism towards the rest of the world.

If you've watched any of the highlights (Click here if you're interested) you may well have noticed the somewhat...generally...shall we say..."sparse" crowds at the matches. That's too kind: there are literally HUGE SWATHS of seats available at these games. Seriously, I've seen larger crowds at Craig Kilborn Fan Fests. My brother's high-school games were more attended than these matches...and they played in Bozeman...in November...after shoveling snow off the field.

So, hey, if you want to go on vacation and see some international soccer in the lap of luxury: Qatar's the way to go. (It'll be easier now than in 11 years anyway).

We'll be back in a few days to check on the semi's which will have at least one starry-eyed dreamer playing with the World Cup perennials. (Good luck surviving that one Uzbekistan/Jordan)

AFC Cup 2011: A half-hearted/belated preview

Since the Asian Cup kicked off two days ago, I suppose I ought to point out precisely who is likely to win this and head on to the Confederations Cup in 2013.

Why? Because it's early January and there's NOTHING ELSE TO DO!

Let's lose Qatar (the deal with the Devil only won the them the world cup hosting, not actual talent), Syria (with only two stars left on their flag they only have so much collateral to trade with), North Korea (a change in management's always tough--for all his problems Kim Jong Il always got the red robot motivated) and much as it pains me to admit it: India. (Where the fans will be cheering right up until the cricket comes back on.

Just missing out on the out rounds we have Jordan (any non Michael form of "Jordan" can't win a title for fear of copyright infringement), Bahrain and the UAE (losing out of sympathy for their fellow obscenely wealthy Arab state: Qatar) and Kuwait...because I flipped a coin and they lost.

Ooops, Uzbekistan stayed alive until the knock out stage, but Japan will take care of that, while China crushes Saudi Arabia and moves wins the title of country that most frustrates Bill O'Rielly. On the other side of the draw, Australia and South Korea will run roughshod over Iraq and Iran because they'll be busy moping over their demotion on O'Rielly's list.

In the semifinals Australia will take China out for "a quick snort" the night before. Several hours and 22 lost pairs of pants later, a bedraggled/hungover China will be dumped from the tournament by a barely winded set of Socceroos. Meanwhile the Japanese and Koreans will do what they do best: hate eachother through a tense draw that ultimately results in a Korean victory.

The final on the 29th we'll have a rematch of a previous game between two group C rivals (as seen on January 14th). And under the blazing Qatari sun, a clear victor will emerge: and that victory will be....AUSTRALIA! (Because the crafty Aussies will spike their opponents Kim Chee...diabolic villainy...that's the Aussie way!)