Shooting From the Hip: AFC Second Round

You don't get far in this world playing it cautiously. It's as much a part of the Montana spirit as speed-limit free highways and sales-tax-free beef jerky.

So when it comes to predictions, I'll shoot from the hip. Take a chance when I'm not exactly sure. Be blunt and direct and optimistic when I can be.

The second round of Asian qualifying was announced on Tuesday, and while it won't start for another month and won't end for another year, I figured it was best to make predictions within 48 hours.

The nearly-year long second round, 8 groups of 5 will play home and away. The winners, and the top four runners up, will move on to the final round. (That's where your odds as one team in 2 groups of 6 get a heck of a lot better.)

So who will reach those lofty heights?

Group A: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, Timor-Leste, Malaysia
Winner: The Saudis have the higher profile and the richer pedigree, but the United Arab Emirates has had the better run of form lately. With probably the softest competition around them, I'd guess Zayed's Sons have the best chance.

Dark Horse: Set aside the geopolitical turmoil and the fact that their leaders seem hell bent on getting Israel kicked out of FIFA, but Palestine likely offers the best chance at an upset. A squad built on non-local players will never coalesce perfectly, but their familiarity with top flight squads (as seen in a trip to the the AFC Cup in January) will serve them well.
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Group B: Australia, Jordan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Bangladesh
Winner: This isn't quite a tap-in for The Socceroos but it's close. One of the dominant sides in Asia will have no trouble handling the rivals, the only real match to watch will be against Jordan.

A Socceroo tap in

Dark Horse: Speaking of Jordan, "The Chivalrous" have a strong case to make as one of the top sides in West Asia. They've had great fortune against the lesser sides of Asia (which definitely includes the Bangladeshis, Tajiks and Kyrgyzseseses--okay the Kyrgyz no offense meant), and by cutting their teeth in an endless series of friendlies against higher profile foes they'll keep that strength, take their lumps against Australia and move along.
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Group C: China, Qatar, Maldives, Bhutan, Hong Kong
Winner: Loathe as I am to give them any credit, Qatar has put just about everything they have into developing a team that will match their stadia by 2022. And in case you're wondering, yes that does include pressuring foreigners into service (including Frenchman Dame Traore, Ghanaian Mohammad Muntari and Brazilian Luiz Junior). A strong 2014 was undercut by a truly underwhelming performance in the Asian Cup, but I think they'll be under pressure to get close this cycle--so they don't become the first team since Italy in 1934--the second cup ever--to host a world cup without having played in one before.

Dark Horse: I'm absolutely drinking Bhutan's Kool-Aid, but I don't care. The low profile, lack of film, high altitude home matches and general "do you believe in miracles vibe" makes the land of the Thunder Dragon an easy squad to root for. In the end they'd need to take points at home against both China and Qatar and sweep all matches against Maldives and Hong Kong, but hey, crazier things have happened.
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Group D: Iran, Oman, India, Turkmenistan, Guam
Winner: With or without the recently departed Carlos Quieroz, Iran's got too much talent to miss out in this group. A debacle during a penalty shoot out at the Asian Cup this January shouldn't distract from the fact that they were easy front runners at the tournament and should be for this one as well. If they put their minds to it, I'm sure that young striking talents like Sardar Azmoun and Karim Ansarfarid could find some salient suggestions for the nuclear deal too.

Go Go Guam!

Dark Horse: Much as I love plumping for India (where I lived and worked for a few years), the baffling dark horse to root for is Guam. The rare American protectorate that actually IS an underdog, Guam garnered big headlines when they drew at higher profile Singapore. A squad filled with American college kids and MLS developmental talents might not do much against even average Asian sides like a dangerous Omani crew. But they are the ultimate dark horse.
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Group E: Japan, Syria, Afghanistan, Singapore, Cambodia
Winner: It will take a lot for any of these teams to meaningfully challenge Japan. The Blue Samurai got an excellent draw despite a lackluster World Cup and Asian Cup. Still, they're at the top of the Asian standings and even if they don't consistently bring back European based players they should be able to handle these qualification rivals.

Dark Horse: If one of the other four sides can put together a consistent run against the other three they could pull a surprise especially with other second-tier teams (and Japan) playing so inconsistently. At a guess, I'd put money on Singapore which boasts a young squad with some internationally based players and more who work together at Lions XII bringing cohesion and confidence into the mix (not to mention avoiding the ...but when you lose to Guam...my whole confidence is undermined.
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Group F: Iraq, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Chinese Taipei
Winner: Credit where it's due, Iraq consistently makes the best of an unusual and often trying situation. They've played the top teams in Asia very closely and make a habit of taking lower-ranked rivals seriously. A few foreign based players (including the Columbus Crew's Justin Meram) show continued promise and growth.

From Left to Right: Chanathip Songkrasin and Kroekrit Thawikan

Dark Horse: The biggest challenge for Iraq will be the frequent long-distance hauls to South East Asia. So the question for a dark horse will be any team who can boast a difficult home environment (to steal a win against the favorites) and real sway over regional rivals. By that standard Thailand is your most likely nominee (just winning the South East Asia Suzuki Cup, boasting a young and growing squad, consistent at home), but that's not anything I'd wager heavily on.
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Group G: Korea Republic, Kuwait, Lebanon, Myanmar, Laos
Winner: Korea is still one of the preeminent powers in Asian football, perpetual status as bridesmaid's not withstanding. Their growing influence in Europe doesn't hurt matters, world cup qualification is now expected and the rivals here won't slow that down.

Dark Horse: Right now the hottest team for fans of Asian underdogs is Bhutan, but Lebanon was pulling the Cinderella story during the 2014 cycle. They're back again against two teams they beat on the road during the last set of qualifiers, higher regarded Kuwait and Korea. Though it ended with whimper in the final round of qualifying, the Cedars stood tall, and while Kuwait's a more likely runner-up/qualifier. Lebanon is still where my loyalty lies.
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Group H: Uzbekistan, Bahrain, Philippines, DPR Korea, Yemen
Winner: The Uzbeks have long been a favorite of this blog. After all there's a strong corps of players being augmented by solid youth talents from a growing domestic league. They were in the hunt for a World Cup Spot until the final weeks of the last cycle, and they played well in the Asian Cup this January. Sure their president might be a nut job who made his daughters pop stars, ambassadors, corporate honchos, heirs apparent to the presidency, and then (at least in one case) political prisoners. But still, how 'bout that team, eh?

At least he didn't name them manager

Dark Horse: Maybe it's that they're the only reasonable country in the group. Maybe it's that their nickname is "the Street Dogs". Maybe it's that I'm afraid of Manny Pacquiao. But I feel like the Philippines might be poised for a surprising finish. Bahrain and Korea are both on the slide and Yemen is in turmoil while the Philippines has seen steady results and, in goal keeper Neil Ethridge, boast the only Chelsea trainee in the whole group.

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12 Teams advancing to third Round (** signifies Top 4 runner up)
UAE
Australia
**Jordan
Qatar
Iran
Japan
Iraq
**Thailand
South Korea
**Kuwait
Uzbekistan
**The Philippines

3 On/3 Off: Asian Cup Edition

So, I was back on schedule, and then...yeah.

We hereby return to our summaries and catch-up of notable (and not-so notable) tournaments starting with the first federation cup of the new cycle: the AFC Asian Cup

On: Tim Cahill (Soccer Legend)
Tim Cahill is to Australlian soccer what Bronco Nagurski is to American football.

That is all.

Off: Australian Fans (Geopolitical Novices)
I'm all for hospitality, but Australian fans took it to a new level expressing their affection for North Korea. The Red Robot wasn't too likely to have a lot of fans in the stands, but that's as much for it's systemic disadvantaging of citizens as it is due to the country's small population. Cheer how you want to Aussies...but just remember that one man's satire is a nut job despot's eternal devotion.

On: South Korea
The Taeguk Warriors are certainly disappointed to have been forced to settle for a fourth silver medal since their last trophy in 1960. (Their four bronzes over the same time don't help either). But set aside the final standings and you can see a dominant squad that only trailed for 45 minutes (the second half of the final) and still managed a stunning equalizer in stoppage time. The resilient South Koreans are certainly worthy of a trophy, and I have every confidence they'll be gunning for one sooner rather than later.
Off: Japan
Meanwhile, Korea's primary rival, Japan's Blue Samurai, were underwhelming, topping a middling Group D before being on the back foot for 74 minutes against the United Arab Emirates en route to their eventual ouster in the quarterfinals. Combine this lackluster showing with the fuzzy and unfocused runs in Brazil both last summer and the year before (at the Confederations' Cup) and Japan doesn't look terribly well prepared for the future.


On: Asia's "Perceived" Third Tier (Uzbekistan/UAE/China/Iraq)
Recent form suggested that China and Iraq had no shot at the second round and that the UAE and Uzbekistan were too unknown to thrive in a bigger tournament. At the end of the tournament Iraq and the UAE finished 3rd & 4th, while China and Uzbekistan topped a group featuring more recent World Cup qualifiers (North Korea/Saudi Arabia).

Off: Asia's "Perceived" Second Tier (Saudi Arabia/Oman/Jordan/Qatar)
The Saudi's remain Asia's most baffling squad, with a fine pedigree and minimal results. The other gulf states with rising standards and results (Oman, Jordan and Qatar)looked totally underwhelming en route to their own early exits. And while none conceded as many goals as debutants Palestine, their standards aren't to compete against Palestine...it's to compete against the other top teams in Asia.

Happy Trails #143-130 (Catching up on 2012's Eliminations)

143: Tofa Samoa
Why They Lost: A very young side, Samoa may not have had quite the experience to keep up with Tahiti and New Caldonia, or to stop themselves from yiedling 24 goals in 3 matches (this despite their triumphing over fellow minnows (American Samoa, Cook Islands and Tonga)

Fear my adorable WRATH!
(Optusnet.com)

Who/What We'll Miss: Traditional Samoan tattoos (or Pe'a) would have been guaranteed to freak out a few opponents and add a little non-Ronaldo based color.


142: Lukim Yu Bihain Papua New Guinea
Why They Lost: The rapidly improving Kapuls have a number of players playing in Australia's major league, but seemed to be hard pressed to break through a tough group including a superior New Zealand squad
Who/What We'll Miss: The chance to explain that the Kapul is the local (Tok Pisin) word for Cuscus which is a local variety of opossum...how 'bout that for some zoological factoids!

141: Sa Moce, Fiji
Why They Lost: A this often popular squad was stymied in their quest for another round of action after ceding a vital goal to Papua New Guinea and seeing the Solomon Islands snatch a draw against New Zealand

Not sure if this is a cheer or yawn
(Golfcentraldaily.com)

Who/What We'll Miss: Vijay Singh going nuts-o in the stands.


140: Mbae mi lukem yufala Vanuatu
Why They Lost: Vanuatu had a good chance to slip through a wide open Group A, but a 4:1 loss to Tahiti in the final match meant their downfall.
Who/What We'll Miss: With the vast majority of their team and coaches plying their trade in Vanuatu it'll be a shame that we can compare the "Vanuatu system" to the "Spanish system" (probably would have been a draw).

139: Sampa Jumpai Indonesia
Why They Lost: Poor scoring punch was the end of the day for Indonesia, just three goals saw them fall flat with zero points in their group (the second half game winner by Qatar spoiled their one chance for points)
Who/What We'll Miss: The chance for a reunion of the 1938 World Cup team (back when they were the Dutch East Indies, and Prince as Pre-Boron-Symbol-Prince)


138: See ya, wouldn't want to be ya, Singapore
Why They Lost: Time for penetrating analyses "if you give up more goals than you score it's hard to win," Singapore gave up 20 and scored 2...draw your own conclusions.
Who/What We'll Miss: Luxurious high rise mansions peering over the national stadium means everybody's got a seat in the city state!

Place goes crazy when Tajiks in tha house!
Citysearch.net

137: Khar Naboshad Tajikistan
Why They Lost: Continuing a popular theme of this post...it's all about the goal scoring...Tajikistan got 1 in their six matches. Unless you get a lot of nil-nil draws hard to move on that way.
Who/What We'll Miss: Would be pretty sweet to watch a Tajikistan match at the Boulder Dunshabe Tea House



136: Allah Yisallimak U.A.E.
Why They Lost: A slow start stung "The White" losing to Kuwait and Lebanon gave them a lot to get done against a far more powerful Korean Republic team.
Who/What We'll Miss: Hamdan Al Kamali, the wunderkind of Gulf-State soccer is a promising player on his way up the ladder at Lyon.

135: Sawatdi Thailand
Why They Lost: In it up until the end (and with the good fortune to play Oman in their final match) the War Elephants could not come up with the goals when they needed them and ended up at the bottom of their group.
Who/What We'll Miss: The excuse to wear my Teeratep Winothai jersey and this great federation logo (winner of our Happy Trails, coolest federation symbol award...that's not an elephant to piss off)


134: Mas as-salaamah Saudi Arabia
Why They Lost: The Saudi Golden generation is long gone and it may be a while before we see them back in a World Cup; only one player plays in a European league (Defender Osama Hasawi--and even that, is only recently)
Who/What We'll Miss: The tumultuous chances to fire a bunch of coaches and yell about the failures of the team...making the "Green Eagles" federation the world cup equivalent of the Steinbrenner's clan

133: Annyong hi-Kashipishio North Korea

The 1st 2010 Finalist to be Eliminated

Why They Lost: They foolishly trusted decadent Western based players to infiltrate the hard-working mother land's true sons. Such mistakes will not be repeated and those who have been corrupted shall undergo intense reeducation to repair the damage they have done to the home land and to the great and glorious Kim Jong-Un (People's Sexxiest Man Alive 2000-2013)
Who/What We'll Miss: Writing paragraphs like the above


132: 'Ilaa-liqaa Kuwait
Why They Lost: The hard luck Kuwaiti national side, stymied in attempts to qualify for the world cup over the past 3 decades after a debut in Spain '82, was stuck just outside the promised land of another round yet again. They had the chance to qualify in their final match, but the Taeguk Warriors of Korea were just too much and Kuwait headed home for another long four years.
Who/What We'll Miss: The utter irrationality of a team called "The Blue" despite the fact that their flag contains White, Green, Red and Black.

Heck, I'll sing the national Anthem if you want!
(Telegraph.co.uk)

131: Zai Jian, China
Why They Lost: Quite possibly because they had not yet paid Didier Drogba and Nikolas Anelka enough money to pretend that they are Chinese.
Who/What We'll Miss: The ever rarer feeling of being better than China at something (even if it's kicking a ball on a field)


130: Allah yisallimak, Bahrain
Why They Lost: Needing a big win over Singapore (and a Qatar loss to Iran) to move on, Bahrain got their big win (10-0), but Qatar drew, so no luck for the Big Red Machine. But hey! At least that 10-0 victory (over a team that allowed just 2 goals in the previous leg and was sitting its most experienced players) seems so incongruous and sketchy that Bahrain is the recipient of a FIFA INVESTIGATION!!
Who/What We'll Miss: The chance for Bahrainis gathering together to watch sport peacefully...OR...gathering together to watch sport and overthrow a tyrannical government.

AFC's WIBD #2 (GO TREES!)

Yes, it's an eco-friendly version of the "Well, I'll Be Damned!"Minnow of the Round award as we recognize the most adorable of Asian underdogs: Lebanon.

Setting aside the unlikely ascent of Tajikistan (who lost two matches, then got into the next round anyway by virtue of Syria getting disqualified), Lebanon is easily the most rank outsider in the third round of Asian qualifying ranking in the bottom half of Asian teams. They are 21 spots below Bangladesh, even after a 4-0 drubbing of the Bengal Tigers in Beruit (Hey, even in soccer the Bengals can't win!)

Despite that big win (recapped in English here), there hasn't been much to

celebrate of late. First Lebanon slipped into the next round despite losing 2-0 in Bangladesh. Then they bid farewell to the coach who led them this far (Emile Rustom) and brought back old coach Theo Bucker (Booker? Booger?). Add to this the whole Lebanon/Hezbollah/Arab Spring/general unrest thing and you have a place that's not exactly conducive to sporting glory. (To be clear though, I have to give credit to Lebanon writer Kenny Laurie who wrote a scathing smackdown of Sepp Blatter)

If the Cedars are going to have any chance against the slightly more intimidating force of South Korea's Taegeuk Warriors and the White & Blue of the UAE and Kuwait, they'll need the very best of 23-year-old star-in-the-making Hassan Maatouk (he of the Futsaal fame, pictured at left). It probably wouldn't hurt to get returns from Roda Antar and Youssef Mohamed (two Lebanese stars who have built careers overseas), and hey, while we're at it maybe punch Srecko Katanec in the face (he who claimed the UAE would quote: "have no problem with Lebanon")...clearly Mr. Katanec does not know much about Lebanon.

All in all we here at the Montanan Hooligans' World Cup Center want to go green as we cast our vote for best underdog in Asia. So here's to you Lebanon and your Mighty Cedars! Go forth and conquer...oh wait, you're trees...well, just stand still and conquer!

AFC Cup 2011: A half-hearted/belated preview

Since the Asian Cup kicked off two days ago, I suppose I ought to point out precisely who is likely to win this and head on to the Confederations Cup in 2013.

Why? Because it's early January and there's NOTHING ELSE TO DO!

Let's lose Qatar (the deal with the Devil only won the them the world cup hosting, not actual talent), Syria (with only two stars left on their flag they only have so much collateral to trade with), North Korea (a change in management's always tough--for all his problems Kim Jong Il always got the red robot motivated) and much as it pains me to admit it: India. (Where the fans will be cheering right up until the cricket comes back on.

Just missing out on the out rounds we have Jordan (any non Michael form of "Jordan" can't win a title for fear of copyright infringement), Bahrain and the UAE (losing out of sympathy for their fellow obscenely wealthy Arab state: Qatar) and Kuwait...because I flipped a coin and they lost.

Ooops, Uzbekistan stayed alive until the knock out stage, but Japan will take care of that, while China crushes Saudi Arabia and moves wins the title of country that most frustrates Bill O'Rielly. On the other side of the draw, Australia and South Korea will run roughshod over Iraq and Iran because they'll be busy moping over their demotion on O'Rielly's list.

In the semifinals Australia will take China out for "a quick snort" the night before. Several hours and 22 lost pairs of pants later, a bedraggled/hungover China will be dumped from the tournament by a barely winded set of Socceroos. Meanwhile the Japanese and Koreans will do what they do best: hate eachother through a tense draw that ultimately results in a Korean victory.

The final on the 29th we'll have a rematch of a previous game between two group C rivals (as seen on January 14th). And under the blazing Qatari sun, a clear victor will emerge: and that victory will be....AUSTRALIA! (Because the crafty Aussies will spike their opponents Kim Chee...diabolic villainy...that's the Aussie way!)