Winnowing the Field: Happy Trails #91-60

It's been a while since our last "Happy Trails" post. But it's high time that we doff our cap and pour out a taste for our departed brethren whose hopes of a trip to Brazil must now be confined to the same "off-peak" lucky break kayak.com searches that the rest of us have.

#91 Adeu Andorra
Why they lost: Inability to capitalize on home-field advantage. Unlike the Ecuadorians who own in Quito, Andorra doesn't get any boost from playing at the highest pitch in Europe (Communal d'Andorra la Vella), ceding 9 goals at home without scoring one.
What we'll miss: Cranky pants Catalan separatists (one step above the Quebecois whose poutine laced tirades are just irritating now)

#90 Bis Spater, Lichtenstein
Why they lost: Any time you lose 8-1 AT HOME you're pretty well sunk. On the plus side that loss was against Bosnia & Herzogovinia, rather than arch rivals Latvia.
What we'll miss: Irritating fans of philately by joking how postage stamps are bigger than Lichtenstein...especially since there is a superb postage stamp museum in the capital, Vaduz

#89 Nagha Naghrak, Malta
Why they lost: Their stunning 1-0 win in Armenia may be the downfall of Armenia's quixotic quest for a World cup bid, but it was also the lone highlight in a dismal campaign with a -14 goal differential.
What we'll miss: Taking the chance to push Malta to stop the frantic shuttling of refugees to and fro across the Mediterranean in rickety, likely doomed boats rather than continuing say...humanitarian aid.

Thanks to Nursultan and Kanye, this is only
the third biggest insult to Kazakhstan

#88 Qosh sau bolyngdar, Kazakhstan
Why they lost: The team has been reeling ever since the 2006 documentary by beloved national journalist Borat Sagdiyev was revealed to be a mockery by British comedian Sascha Baron Cohen. The incessant joking by rival teams often reduces them to tears in the middle of matches.
What we'll miss: Besides obviously dumb Borat jokes there's also Nursultan Nazarbayev, who is rapidly shooting up the charts of moronic, slightly despotic world leaders (and that was before he called in Kanye West to perform at his grandson's wedding

#87 Ya Su, Cyprus
Why they lost: Some teams face a scoring drought, Cyprus faces a scoring dust bowl. It's been a year since the tiny Mediterranean island got to go all goofy celebration style. Since Efstathios Aloneftis scored at home versus Norway in the 42nd minute, Cyprus has been shut out. True they got a win over second place Iceland before that, and a draw with group leading Switzerland after it...but not scoring's definitely not helping.
What we'll miss: The slim possibility that Cyprus could have faced either Turkey or Greece in a playoff, inciting all kinds of patriotic kerfuffels [though hopefully no actual trouble].

Bressan wondering where the
help is. (eurosport.com)

#86 Ubachymsia, Belarus
Why they lost: The Belarusians cannot build on any kind of success in World Cup qualifying. Just miss a playoff spot in '02? Tank in '06. Get your best ever goal differential (plus 5) in '10? Slip back to -8 in '14...and that's even before a game in Spain. 
What we'll miss: Renan Bressan, dominated the Belarusian league, leading it in goals in 2010 and 2011 for league champ FC BATE Borisov. Though he's been less effective in Russia, he is easily the leader of Belarus' youth movement. Okay...he is Belarus' youth movement (if only all Belarusian's were also Brazilian)

#85 A Pli Tard, Moldova
Why they lost: Failure to face San Marino more than twice in the qualifying process. Sure there a FIFA rules and everything, but come on Moldova, don't be so small minded.
What we'll miss: A few young talents mark Moldova as a potentially improving team, particularly if Artur Ionita (already a hot commodity in the Swiss league) and Serghei Gheorgiev become a powerful midfield combination for the next few decades.

#84 Xudaafiz, Azerbaijain
Why they lost: Five draws in eight matches, isn't bad, but it's not exactly the stuff that winning campaigns are made of either...hence the whole "draw" thing.
What we'll miss: Their national team logo. Half ball on fire. Half-paint company advertisement

#83 Kargard Iqaveet, Georgia
Why they lost: Pulling a nil-nil draw against France at home in Tiblisi was a great result for the Crusaders. But it came a little late in the qualification for it to matter much, or at all, so it ends up being just a nice consolation prize.
What we'll miss: Awkward conversations in which fans of Uga the bulldog think they've done something worth drinking about. Even though they'll still take the opportunity to drink about it.

#82 Pob Hwyl, Wales

Why they lost: It didn't help that Gareth Bale was unwilling to play both Forward spots, defend, goaltend and sell the popcorn.
What we'll miss: International media swooning over Mr. Bale for a whole World Cup...thereby keeping the focus on Messi, Neyemar and half-a-dozen other Nike branded superstars.

#81 Eddi, Luxembourg

BE WARNED LUC HOLTZ!

Why they lost: The goalkeeping is more than a little suspect for the Red Lions. Ceding 9 goals in two matches against Israel, and matches ahead against Russia and Portugal. Without keeping the biscuit out of the basket, it's a little tough to get ahead in life.
What we'll miss: Threatening Luxembourgish coach Luc Holtz with the aged spectre of his future: Lou Holtz.

#80 Slan go foill, Northern Ireland

Why they lost: Despite a 1-0 win over Russia, the Norn Iron struggled to find a decent run of success at Winfield Park in Belfast. Losses to Israel and Portugal hurt, draws with Luxembourg and Azerbaijan were the real crusher.
What we'll miss: Working with a number of Belfast-bred teachers, my Northern Irish accent is better than my Irish, so I guess I'll miss irritating friends and family.

#79 Jumalaga, Estonia

Why they lost: Attacking midfielder, Joel Lindpere does a marvelous job for both the blue shirts of Estonia and the blue and red of the Chicago Fire. But at 31 he's a bit old for the national team...as are the 9 other regular team members who trot out against Europe's freshest talents.
What we'll miss: The chance to trot out my 9th Grade "World Cultures" report factoids about Estonia (culled from the 1997 World Book Encyclopedia). Did you know that one of Estonia's major exports is "ore"? Or...was back in 1997?

#78 Sveiki Latvia

Why they lost: They didn't look great in any qualifier, but it might help to have some forwards who could balance out the defensive aura cast by Captain Kaspars Grokss and youngster Vitalijs Maksimenko.
What we'll miss: The chance for Latvians to take those heathen Lithuanians down a peg.

#77 Dogledanje, Macedonia

Why they lost: The Red Lynx have the distinct disadvantage to be building a new generation of talent cobbled together by a wealth of players who ply their trade anywhere but Macedonia. From Captain Goran Pandav with Napoli to youngster David Babunski on the Barcelona B team, Macedonians really only get to play together in camps making cohesion and development a bit tough.
What we'll miss: Snooty arthouse showings of films by cinematic pioneers Yanaki and Milton Manaki, it's hard to imagine many soccer fans who wouldn't also enjoy a little art house falderal.

C'mon Lithuania, give us more Arvydas!

#76 Iki Greito Pasimatmyo, Lithuania

Why they lost: In their last two matches in the group, the Lithuanians fielded a team with a combined 20 goals over a combined 385 caps...and that was the line up with fire power (scoring three goals against Latvia and Lichtenstein)
What we'll miss: Arvydas Sabonis.

#75 Nakemiin, Finland

Why they lost: The Eagle-Owls were doomed the minute they got lumped into group I with Spain and France. Even a draw away to Spain couldn't keep them in the hunt.
What we'll miss: A distraction for our Finnish friends in those long brutal summer months between sled-dog racing season.

#74 Do Videnja, Serbia

2nd 2010 entrant Eliminated

Why they lost: What happened, Serbia? A team that was all prospect and potential, that offered so many talented players and such a strong defense that they were considered a model of Eastern European strength on the international scene. Qualifying for the cup as Serbia and Montegro in '06 and as just plain Serbia in 2010 they seemed poised to be a long term power. But Dejan Stankovic and Nemanja Vidic proved to be too integral to team success and with their declines and retirements coinciding with increased struggles in Europe
What we'll miss: The chance for my wife and her slew of proudly Serbian relatives (from the great city of Red Lodge Montana) to bubble over with national pride during the cup.

#73 Zbohom, Slovakia

3rd 2010 Entrant Eliminated

Why they lost: Slovakia's decline was far more predictable. A seemingly fluk-ish qualifying in 2010, a stunning upset of a lethargic Italy in the group stage before flaming out against Holland in the round of 16 and then struggles in qualifying for Europe 2012 and the World Cup. They should have had a better chance with an inconsistent Greece as their main rival for qualification, but losses at home to the Greeks and Bosnia/Herzogovina sealed their return to the fringes of futbol attention.
What we'll miss: The slim chance of Turn-Back-The-Clock Uniform night with piratey shirts and stirrup socks.

#72 Jojoechajevypeve, Paraguay

4th 2010 Entrant Eliminated

Why they lost: Paraguay's fall from grace is closer to down right baffling. Four straight qualifications for the cup. A quarter-final berth in 2010. They don't seem like they should be dismissed so decisively (unlike say, the North Koreans). But when you can't get a win anywhere on the road AND drop home matches to Argentina, Chile and...Venezuela? Well, I guess Roque Santa Cruz and Justo Villar had to get old at some point. 

What we'll miss: Long Guarini ramblings from my grad school friends, and groomsman (all of whom have extensive experience in Paraguay)

#71 Wauslegga, Bolivia
Why they lost: Long the forgotten cousin Oliver of South American qualifying, the "green ones" seemed to save their best for the biggest teams on the continent: beating perennial qualifiers Paraguay, and semi-finalists Uruguay at home, and drawing with Argentina on the road. And while those performances might have been nice, they meant doodly-squat when you can't beat Venezuela or Peru anywhere.
What we'll miss: Our quadrennial: Hey! Remember Marco Etcheverry moment. Speaking of which, HEY! Remember Marco Etcheverry? Good times...good times.

That's a Peruvian team we can get behind

#70 Uq Ratukama, Peru

Why they lost: The Incas' stubborn refusal to build a stadium atop Machuu Pichu. C'mon, if Quito is tough to play in Machu Pichu's going to be helacious and there's no way you drop matches to Columbia and Uruguay at home then.
What we'll miss: Analyzing the soccer team's strength in comparison with the Quidditch team's strength.

#69 Salang sentle, Botswana

Why They Lost: The Zebras have a rather punchless offense, with just two goals to their name (both at home, in a draw and a loss). Their youngest stars are defenders and midfielders so, that probably won't change any time soon.

What We'll Miss: Inspiration for another Alexander McCall Smith collection of mysteries for The Ladies No. 1 Detective Agency. ("The Zebra in Brazil"?)

#68 Magha, Gabon
Why They Lost: The Panthers had a slim shot at qualification in their final match, and fielded a rather young and alotgether inexperienced team. They did not keep up with Burkina Faso and were summarily ousted from the tournament.
What We'll Miss: Like Estonia previously, the chance to trot out my 9th Grade Geography report on Gabon, ahem: "Albert Schwietzer, the famous doctor, spent many years serving the people of Gabon." You're welcome everyone who doesn't look at Wikipedia.

#67 Tionana, Malawi

Why They Lost: Trailing Nigeria by two points, the Flames needed a win to stun the world and knock out the Super Eagles. Sadly they went to Calabar, Nigeria, and were utterly overwhelmed on the road, squandering their shot.

What We'll Miss: Midfielder Tawango Chimodzi flashing that sweet, sweet Greek paycheck as the lone Malawian national team player to be based in Europe.

Even if he's a scientologist, better
Whitaker than Amin...

#66 Mweraba, Uganda

Why They Lost: So many players flying in from so far afield (Iceland, the US, Vietnam and Poland to name but four) had very little time to gel as a unit in Marrakesh ahead of their do-or-die-tilt against Senegal. Unsurprisingly, the cranes died.
What We'll Miss: Forrest Whitaker attempting to rally the troops as Idi Amin in the worst-inspirational-sports-speech ever.

#65 Allah Yismallak, Libya

Why They Lost: Honestly? I don't know, maybe there was just a little too much going on with the political instability, the threat of losing one's homes, families and welfare and the tremendous national pressure on them to steal a victory over Cameroon in their last match. Or maybe they knew that it's just a game...not life-and-death, especially as they have seen life-and-death.
What We'll Miss: Pointing and laughing at stupid Ghadaffi mistakes.

#64 Ate Logo, Cape Verde Islands

Why They Lost: Back in June I wrote that the problem was "Late blooming. The Tubaroes Azuis (Blue Sharks) started out with three straight losses, but big wins this month against Equitorial Guinea and Sierra Leone saw them up to second in their group behind Tunisia. A little earlier and The Eagles of Carthage might have had some competition."--Now the solution is simpler: "Inability to read rules and regulations"--If Cape Verde had held one man out of their line up against Tunisia they'd be mulling a play-off match up instead of how to spend the winter in Cape Verde. (Might we suggest living on a beautiful island...oh yeah...you already do that.)
What We'll Miss: Hipsters trotting out Cape Verde jerseys in an effort to be cool and obscure.

#63 Tikala Malamu, Congo

Why They Lost: Credit to the Red Devils, they went from the play-in games to within one point of the  World Cup Playoffs (a feat that Ethiopia actually did accomplish), and with a scad of talented young players breaking into Europe they likely won't have to work as hard in the future.
What We'll Miss: The burgeoning play-making combo of Delvin N'Dinga and Prince Oniangue.

First of many, Emmanuel...

#62 Fikani Biwo, Zambia

Why They Lost: Even for a hard core Black Stars supporter like myself, it's a little tough to say goodbye to the Copper Bullets, one of the true feel good stories of African football. Coming off a 2012 Cup of Nations Title, Zambia gave Ghana all they could handle and more in the qualifying region's group of death. Sadly some untimely draws (away at Lesotho and home v. Sudan) saw them off despite beating the Black Stars at home.
What We'll Miss: With 35 caps at age 20, Emmanuel Mbola is clearly going to be a fixture of the backline for years to come. And while he might not have netted the high profile transfer to Spurs at age 17, he still has plenty of time to get a pay day.

#61 Sizobonana, South Africa

The 5th 2010 World Cup Finalist eliminated

Why They Lost: Since the heartbreaking "goals-scored" tiebreaker nocked Bafana Bafana out of the 2002 World Cup, the once rising power in Africa has fallen on hard times, after a lackluster showing at home (with only a win over an absolutely incompetent French team) they're back to their "not-quite-good-enough" status, even when their group includes Botswana and Ethiopia
What We'll Miss: The soothing sound of vuvuzelas...wait..no, I won't miss that.

#60 Ertagacha khair, Uzbekistan

Why They Lost: I'll own this one. I've been boosting the White Wolves chances since I saw them give an excellent performance in the 2011 Asian Cup not to mention some good U-20 performances. They had a lead going into the final stages of Asian qualifying only to see Iran squeeze past the post and then fall to Jordan in a heartbreaking penalty shootout. Sure it's easiest to lay the blame on Anzur Ismailov for the final miss...but at this point, a loss is a loss and the best thing to do is hope it turns out better next time around.

What We'll Miss: Smug self-satisfaction in assuming I spotted Uzbek greatness before it happened.

Starting XI: Nerdery Engage!

If there's one thing that gets me as nerdily riled up as sports, it's books. So October is just about the best time of year for me. There's the Major League Baseball playoffs, at least one guaranteed international match day, and the announcement of the Nobel Prize in Literature.


With dozens of teams still dreaming of qualification, there's plenty for international sports/book nerds to root for in the coming weeks. Including these 11 writers, who could give geeks like me not one, but two things to go crazy about in October (along with their country of origin and the most recent Ladbrokes odds in their favor)

Note, I only went with the authors with the highest odds who come from countries that are still in the hunt for a World Cup spot

I. Peter Nadas--Hungary 7/1

The artist: At once classical and experimental, Nadas is revered throughout the literary world as positively Proustian in his depth of detail and calibre of expression. As he builds conflict and division between people in our modern world, he also finds ways to bring them together, merging into a collective vision of humanity as shown in his novels, essays AND plays.

The odds of a double: The Magical Magyars are in the driver's seat for the runner-up spot in Group D, up a point with two games to play. Unfortunately up-and-coming Romania are set to face the bottom feeders of the group (Estonia and Andorra) while Hungary opens with Holland. Still, their recent 5-1 drubbing of Estonia (while the Estonians challenged the Dutch) suggests that they should not be trifled with. The biggest problem they both face is that favorites (both in futbol and in Nobel discussions) rarely win. How good are their odds of turning the double? About as good as Congress agreeing on anything other than the fact that America is awesome.

II. Assia Djebar--Algeria 10/1

The artist: The one African and the one woman on this list, Assia Djebar is the leading voice of passionate feminism in North Africa. Her novels address that feminist philosophy by casting modern women in a world immersed in traditional gender roles. Her debut novel (La Soif or The Mischief or literally The Thirst) earned her death threats for showing a decadent westernized woman in traditional Algeria. Her later work has been less controversial, but equally adamant about the role that women ought to play in an open society.

The odds of a double: Algeria opens against Burkina Faso around the time we'll hear about the Nobel. While the Burkinabe may be the most likely debutante left in Africa, Algeria has a little more international clout and a little more poise on the biggest stages. That combined with Djebar's own clout and poise suggest that the odds of an Algerian double are around odds that a Fox News Pundit screws up 8 Arabic names in 80 seconds.

III. Amos Oz--Israel 16/1

The artist: Oz has the combo platter of great writing and serious political clout. Both in his literature and his opinionated essays for Israeli newspapers, he advocates for peace and justice throughout Israel and the West Bank.  He remains prolific both in literature and in his non-fiction.

The odds of a double: Since the same people who give out the literature award give out the peace award too, the temptation to make political statements with both awards (as with Mo Yan and Orhan Pamuk) is pretty great. Meanwhile the national Blues and Whites have a pretty steep hill to climb needing powerhouses Russia and Portugal to falter while winning against Northern Ireland and in Portugal. Despite Oz's justifiable confidence, odds are only slightly better than peace breaking out in Gaza tomorrow.

IV. Milan Kundera--Czech Republic/France 25/1

The artist: Kundera's technically from the Czech Republic, but prefers to write, live and be recognized as French. One of the most popular writers internationally (based largely on the success and affection around The Unbearable Lightness of Being), Kundera's writing lives in the beautiful mixed up world between comedy and tragedy underneath totalitarian regimes. He writes to encourage, rather than pacify the reader's imagination, and in an increasingly literal world, that's rather refreshing.

The odds of a double: It depends on which country you want to go with. The French are sure of a playoff spot (and better if Spain somehow implodes) while the Czechs need to win in Malta and Bulgaria, while Denmark and Bulgaria lose both of their matches. While Kundera rarely disappoints his fans, the French and Czechs do it on a seemingly daily basis. So I'd say the odds are about as good as late night talk show hosts not making fun of the French.

V. Jon Fosse--Norway 25/1

The artist: Never underestimate the desire of Norwegians to award other Norwegians, all that nordic humility is thrown out the window on one day of the year--hence the tonnage of scandinavian laureates. Fosse certainly has Norway in his corner. He gets to live in a resident on the grounds of the Royal Palace, and at 53, he'll get to bunk with the kings and queens of Norway while watching people marvel at his ingenious dramas.

The odds of a double: The Norwegian national side has it all within their power with two matches against Slovenia and Iceland to break into the playoff picture, but the pressure on the Nobel committee to cast a broader net (and Fosse's relative youth and likely consistent status as a contender for the award) suggests that this may not be his time. I'd venture the Norwegian odds are about as good as the odds of American Cable news pronouncing a name with one of those slashy o things correctly on their first try.

VI. William Trevor--Ireland--33/1

The artist: One of the most acclaimed writers of the modern Irish era, Trevor is a grand statesman at a time when Irish writers could use one. 18 years after Seamus Haney won his Nobel, his forerunner, Trevor may be due for his turn at the podium. At turns Gothic and Chekovian, Trevor might seem to be  an imitator of the first rate, but that undercuts his strengths and inventions as a writer, offering a variety of protagonists, a number of narrative perspectives and a truly Irish sense of tragicomedy.

The odds of a double: Trevor may get some sympathy points for Haney's recent passing, but the boys in green won't. The Irish team will need something darn near approaching a miracle to beat Germany on the road and get a major goal differential boost to pass Austria and Sweden (assuming Austria beats Sweden as they need to). Their chances of turning the double are about equal to odds of Ireland running out of Guinness.

Who wouldn't want to rule that?

VII. Javier Marias--Spain--33/1

The artist: Marias is a man who thinks in terms of split identities in an ever changing and global world. He's also apparently the King of Redonda--a small island micronation that's not really a country or a kingdom at all, it's just a place where writers sit around and write and argue over whose in charge. At just 62 he would be very young for a laureate, and hasn't done quite as much as others on the list, but is already highly regarded in European literature.

The odds of a double: Naturally Spain is going to get in, they host bottom dwelling Belarus and Georgia and a win in either of them will put them in directly. Whether or not Marias actually has a shot to win the day this time around, he may help a double soon enough. I'd say there odds are about as good as Spain getting 8 goals in two matches.

VIII. Salman Rushdie--England--40/1

The artist: Rushdie is one of the best known writers on the planet. Being threatened with a fatwa by the Ayatollah will do that for you. So will being lampooned by Seinfeld when it was in its heyday. So are the great collection of best-selling, critically acclaimed works that make him a focal point of the press every time he publishes something, anything at all. He's a master of magical realism and a truly classic writer. 

The odds of a double: Gabriel Garcia-Marquez already has the magic realism medal, Rushdie's got that "always-a-bridesmaid-never-the-bride" air about him (like John Fowles and Vladmir Nabokov before him). And if there's any greater football choke artist than England I've yet to see them. That puts their odds of pulling the double somewhere around, George RR Martin publishing two books in the same calendar year.

IX. Leonard Nolens--Belgium--50/1

The artist: Little known outside of Antwerp, Nolens is a major postmodern figure in Flemish poetry. (I know, I know...so many great Flemish poets, so little time.) He has both an excellent poetic style and an insightful selection of journal entries that chronicle the artistic process. 

The odds of a double: Belgium is pretty clearly guaranteed a world cup berth, and Nolens is just the kind of underexposed European poet who is beloved by the Nobel committee. There are many better known authors in the running for the prize, but as any football fan will tell you, it's not always the best known team that wins. So I'd say it's about as likely as a show actually earning the title of "The New  Breaking Bad" in the next few months.

X. Ismail Kadare--Albania--50/1

The artist: The bard of the Balkans, Kadare, enjoys blending his own local mythology and modern social issues (such as dangerous and despotic regimes). While he has been exiled to France for undermining socialist status quo, he remains a beloved figure even though his recent output hasn't matched his greatest accomplishments. 

The odds of a double: While Kadare (by virtue of his high reknown and other glossy wins--such as the Man Booker International award) makes a good dark horse, Albania would be a jet black horse in the darkest cave on the darkest side of the moon. A win in Cyprus is likely, but they'd also need a win over front running Switzerland and stumbles from Iceland, Slovenia and Norway...eek. Turning the Albanian double is about as likely as Steven Segal starring at Stratford on Avon.

Really looks like a crowd
pleaser, doesn't it?

XI. Peter Handke--Austria--66/1
The artist: The controversial Austrian (who has frequently defended former dictator/genocide afficianado, Slobodan Milosovic) would be an odd choice for the Nobel committee, who prefers their controversial causes to have the backing of most UN members. But he did write The Goaie's Anxiety at the Penalty Kick which uses a penalty shot as a metaphor for criminal behavior.
The odds of a double: Between Handke's controversial behavior and the fact that Austria likely needs a win on the road against a leading Swedish side, I'd say somewhere around all my students handing every assignment in on time for the rest of the year.

Of course, Haruki Murakami is the bookkeepers favorite, Joyce Carol Oates is the pop-culture favorite, and the Nobel prefers to award literally anyone but the favorite. So realistically, it's better to be a fan of the futbol teams than the writers.

In it...but Win it? #3: Early Birds

Most teams have a few games left to go before they know for sure if they can set aside a tonnage of unsatisfying hours wading through visa paperwork at the Brazilian consulate. But a few took care of their business in September and so have two months worth of "who-gives-a-#%*&!@$", as they prepare for next summer's World Cup.

Of course, just because they are going to the World Cup doesn't mean they're going to do anything during that World Cup. That's where our analysis comes in: as the glow of qualification starts to fade and the humdrum monotony of waiting for the matches to matter again begins, we're happy to buzz kill some fans and overindulge a few others.

Italy
Contender Credentials: Italy knows what it does well and does it over and over and over again. Like your friend who goes on and on about their grandma's ravioli or pasta putanesca, once you've got the recipe right, just do it again and again. For Italy it's simple: get one or two great strikers and a squadron of brutal defenders and let the rest take care of itself. They used it to great aplomb in qualifying, only dropping points to Bulgaria and the Czech Republic on the road and winning every other match they had.

Pretender Problems: Even the most consistent of stratagems could use a little tweaking now and then, as Italy discovered to their detriment in South Africa, where they were utterly lost against such titans as Paraguay, Slovakia and New Zealand. Italy's national team has been as tumultuous as it's national political scene lately, thanks in no small part to a man with all of Silvio Berlusconi's appetites and only slightly more self control: Mario Balotelli. Their recent style has been "not-quite-good-enough" to launch them to the top of Europe as frequent drubbings at the feet of Spain have attested time and again. Maybe, just maybe, one goal and a cloud of dirt may need to change if Italy wants a fifth title.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Balotelli keeps his head in the game, grind 'em out defense wins the day and manager Ceasare Prandelli takes over the Prime Minister's job to improve the nation as a whole.

Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Balotelli goes a little cuckoo banana pants, a new troop of minnows swallows up the Azzurri before Berlusconi announces his return to futbol.

Prediction: Back in the saddle again, Italy is plenty good enough to win their group and cruise through one round, but a new style wipes them out in the quarter finals. (I had to sit through too many matches against Billings to root for Italy completely)

The Netherlands

Contender Credentials: Widely seen as the best futboling nation to never win the World Cup, Holland came close in 2010 and is returning much of their same line up to the field. They positively dominated their qualifying group, with a single, inexplicable draw in Estonia halting their swift ascension to qualification.

Pretender Problems: Since finishing as runners-up (again) in South Africa, it's been a rocky road for the Oranje. Manager Bert Van Marwijk took the blame for an abysmal Euro Championship (where the Dutch went winless in three matches). And while an experienced line-up is a good thing, an older line-up is less impressive. How exactly the few young talents rising through the Dutch ranks will fare in the glare of a national spotlight is hard to say.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: They put their past behind them and claim the title that has unjustly eluded Total Football for too long. A strike force of Kuyt, Van Persie and Robben dominate up top and hoist the Jules Rimet trophy while Johann Cryuff looks on and cries.

Pits-of-Despair Scenario: It's Euro 2012 all over again. A difficult group stymies the Dutch progress and weaknesses at the back leave them crashing out while those Belgian heathens rise to the top of lowland soccer prominence. Johann Cryuff looks on and cries.

Prediction: I hope I'm wrong, but I think there's something slightly off about Holland. Great as it would be to see them triumph, I can just as easily see them 3rd in the Group Stage

Argentina

Contender Credentials: If you judge a team's ability to win the World Cup based on the calibre of their players, it's hard to argue with Argentina given that they have the consensus best player in the world right now: Lionel Messi. The last time Argentina had a playmaker of Messi's calibre (some kid named Maradona) they won their two titles and finished runners up at another. Always strong performers in Latin America, it's easy to tip them for greatness again.

Pretender Problems: As Spain has shown again and again, it's best to have a full team behind you. So as much fun as it is to watch Lionel Messi y los Pips, you have to wonder about their long term success (particularly when they only mustered a quarter-final spot in 2010, and Messi was not especially miraculous at any point of the tournament.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Messi engraves his name in the history books along side other World's Greatests and La Albiceleste triumph over Brazil in their rivals' own stadium.

Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Exhausted from a full season with Barca and with the best defenders from the world draped over him like a bed sheet on a frat-boy during a toga party, Messi can only get Argentina to the Round of 16.

Prediction: An under-the radar team (well as under-the-radar as Messi can be) without the mercurial Maradona on the sidelines and with a game plan that has Messi feeding other talents (Higuain, Aguero and Rodriguez) is a winner in my book. Champion.

The United States of America

Contender Credentials: Uncle Sam's Army is playing the best soccer in recent memory, buoyed by an array of extremely talented players who came of age just as soccer reached its critical mass here with the World Cup in 1994. Led by Jurgen Klinsman, whose tactical approach helped an underwhelming German squad overachieve in 2006, there's a surplus of confidence that we may at last be coming into our own.

Pretender Problems: Americans. A surplus of confidence. What could possibly go wrong? While the Yanks have dominated CONCACAF it has helped that Mexico is playing like a bored pile of dog droppings, and any team that aspires to the top 16 of the world should beat Jamaica, Panama and Honduras as handily as we have.  Can we keep it going against the truly great soccer nations of the world...probably not.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Klinsman is a genius, DeMarcus Beasly continues his Lazarus act, Landon Donavan stays interested, and the Americans pull a shocker and make the semis as they did so long ago in Uruguay.

Pits-of-Despair Scenario: We lose to Ghana (as we always do), England (as retribution for last time) and Iran (just because Sepp Blatter wants to prove a point). Klinsman is forgiven, we're just dumb Americans after all.

Prediction: There's too much talent not to make the second round, but not enough to do tremendous damage. Without a draw to stop me I'll be optimistic: Quarter Finals

Costa Rica

Contender Credentials: The forgotten power of North American futbol, Costa Rica has a habit of making other teams miserable. With an aggravating style of scrambled attacking and counter-attacking and an incensed fan base to make matches in San Jose as close to a sure thing as possible.

Pretender Problems: American Soccer Now rightly points out that Costa Rica is a forgotten power largely because they have forgotten how to use their powers, with Panama and Honduras taking the title of Central America's best in recent years. Like the US their qualification may not have come so easy if Mexico hadn't gotten in the way of that horrible gypsy curse.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: It's back to the glory days of 1990 when Costa Rica stunned the world (particularly Sweden and Scotland), and a horde of fans make the relatively short trip to spur them on to the quarter finals.

Pits-of-Despair Scenario: It's back to the drubbing of 2006, when Costa Rica got walloped by everyone they faced, and they were little more than an afterthought.

Prediction: Bryan Suarez and Joel Campbell are a good enough tandem to get a win against someone...but the draw has to go in their favor to avoid: 4th Place.

Rapid Analysis of CAF Round 3

At noon in the ancient Egyptian capital of Luxor, the Confederation of African Football drew lots for the third and final round of world cup qualifiers, to be played in November at various locations throughout the continent.


At five AM in the ancient Minnesota capital of St. Paul, I was trying to get a little more sleep before walking the dog, cleaning the kitchen and making my way to another day of work. Which means, of course, that I did not get an invite to attend the CAF draw...how unthoughtful.

Still I made time to find out who would be dueling in November, and as I am wont to do, I quickly dashed out some half-baked jokes and arrogant assumptions that I pretend is worth calling "analysis". Enjoy.

***

The draw is straight forward, the top 5 teams left are in one pot, the bottom 5 are in the other. One of the top 5 and one of the bottom 5 will face off in a head to head battle to the death...or to the bloody shins...or to the inevitable 3-0 awarded victory that FIFA is so fond of doling out in African football.

The top 5 are: Ivory Coast, Ghana, Algeria, Nigeria, Tunisia*

The bottom 5 are: Egypt, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Senegal, Ethiopia.

From a purely objective point it's easy to see best and worst case scenarios for teams in each group.

If you're part of the Top 5 you want Ethiopia (the rankest outsider left in the contest) or Egypt (home to tons of political/social instability, and you want to avoid Cameroon and Senegal.

If you're part of the Bottom 5 you want Tunisia (not immune to stunners) or Algeria (slightly overrated) but not Ivory Coast or Ghana (clearly the two powerhouses of African football at the moment)

*"But wait," I hear you say, "didn't Tunisia lose to Cape Verde, thereby providing us with a really interesting up-and-coming nation to talk about?" Oh, silly...of course not. The thrilling 2-0 victory by the Azores was actually a 3-0 defeat because Fernando Varela came back one match too early from his four match suspension after being unsportsmanlike to a referee back in March, in a match they lost 2-0 before winning 2-0...how is that possibly confusing?

(Actually Firdose Moonda does a great job of explaining the whole thing and the whole African rules fiasco on her ESPN FC blog)

So how did it shake out and who does it favor?


So here are our match ups

Cote d'Ivoire v. Senegal--Even with a strong west African nation like Senegal across the pitch from them, it's hard to pick against the Elephants of Ivory Coast. They may have underachieved on the global stage but they're still easily in charge on the continent.

Ethiopia v. Nigeria--The Walia dodged the biggest bullets in Ivory Coast and Ghana, but Nigeria is no easy opponent, having qualified for four of the past five world cups. Playing at home plays to Ethiopia's strengths and they have seen off other prestigious nations (like South Africa), but they'll still be underdogs.

Tunisia v. Cameroon--Congrats to the Eagles of Carthage for surviving the mine field of regulations that felled Sierra Leone, Equitorial Guinea and Cape Verde. Now their reward is Cameroon, the sneakiest and arguably most dangerous of the unseeded teams. Given Tunisia's inability to defend home turf against Cape Verde, doing it agains the Indomitable Lions may be a little too tough.

Egypt (R) v.s. Ghana (L)

Ghana v. Egypt--I was about to say that this match would see the Mega Powers collide, and then I remembered that that was the title for the epic Randy Savage/Hulk Hogan battle back in the WWFs 80 glory days. Still, the parallels are eerie. You have Egypt, the long standing stalwart of African football who has been consigned to the background of late due, and you have the shooting star of Ghana whose high-flying aerial act is exciting and has won its own legion of fans. The only difference is that Asamoah Gyan and Amr Zakiri are unlikely to be tag-team champions anytime soon, and that the two countries have almost always been rivals, rather than gearing up for a more recent blood feud.


Though Egypt had an easier time of qualifying than Ghana did, Ghana does have political stability and fewer concerns about the safety of their fans than Egypt does. How it turns out will depend largely on who Ghana fields (probably their best) and what lessons Bob Bradley has learned since his last defeat at the feet of the Black Stars (probably not enough to swing the balance).

Burkina Faso v. Algeria--If there's hope for another African debutante at the Brazilian mondiale, it's got to be Burkina Faso. They are higher rated, they have their first match at home to build up a lead, they're facing a far less experienced side in Algeria. It would be a great victory to head to Brazil and it's absolutely within their reach.

So, dull as it is, I'm going to talk almost entirely chalk in this round with Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Ghana and Burkina Faso winning as would be expected, and only Cameroon springing an upset (if you can really call it that). Sure I'll be rooting for Ethiopia--more on that to come--but for now it looks like the powerful will stay that way, at least in Africa.

Waning Seconds: The AFC Playoff Picture

Okay, show of hands for how many people found this website by googling "AFC Playoff Picture" after the first weekend of the NFL season.

That's what I thought.

Still, you should stick around, because if there's one thing American sports fans like, it's a winner-take-all battle for supremacy: like the Superbowl, or the Spanish-American War.

On Tuesday it will be Jordan versus Uzbekistan live from Takshent, Uzbekistan...wait...wait...they're playing soccer...okay, now all the American football fans are gone.

Credit: AFP via FIFA

Server Likes Trophies

Still, that's okay because it should be a thrilling game in Takshent where two teams who have never reached this stage of the competition battle for a spot in the intercontinental final four play in games. Having drawn 1-1 in Amman, it's still anybodies match, but Uzbekistan will be considered slight favorites due to the away goal scored by Server Djeperov, the Korean based national team captain.

For those who aren't up to date on their Uzbeki soccer stars. Djeperov won the Asian player of the year award in 2008 and has been a fixture of the national side since 2006. While Uzbekistan gets a lot of (justly deserved) credit for being a team of young talents, Djeperov remains the group's obvious leader. And while he has done a fine job of bridging the gap to younger talents like forward Bahodir Nasimov, midfielders Odil Ahmedov and Sanzhar Tursunov and defenders Vitaly Denisov and Islom Tuktakhodjaev, there's a long way to go before the new guys can do it by themselves.

The Uzbek's biggest question mark heading into the home leg is goalie Murod Zukhurov who will be making just his fourth appearance for the national team at age 30. Long slotted behind Ignatiy Nesterov, Zurkhov has a chance to make a name for himself in the biggest way by pitching a clean sheet against Jordan and setting up a final push against whatever team CONMEBOL offers up.

Of course, shutting out the The Chivalrous (as Al-Nashama translates to) may be easier said than done. Needing at least a 2-2 draw to move forward automatically, Jordan will be throwing everything they have at the White Wolves (including the kitchen sink and maybe even Prince Ali bin al Hussein's private jet--the one they flew to Uzbekistan).

That's a happy Deeb

Better than jets and kitchen sinks will be the Jordanian forwards: Abdallah Deeb has been their most potent scoring option for the better part of the last six years, and at 26 is still the youngest regular forward on the team. But the reason Jordan's going to Uzbekistan with everything to play for is young midfielder Mossab al-Laham, who recently completed a one million dollar transfer to Saudi Arabia's SC Najran. At 22 (and already with 2 goals in just 10 caps), al-Laham should be a vital portion of Jordan's attack for a long time to come.

Al-Laham should keep learning his skills from team captain Amer Deeb, whose 123 caps are topped only by keeper Amer "The Whale" Shafia. And though the team has a relatively new manager in Hossam Hassan, you could hardly ask for a better guide to the world's brightest stage than Egypt's all-time leading goal scorer (especially since said leading goal-scorer supported Hosni Mubarak and probably ought to stay out of Egypt for a little while longer).

So, to sum up. Uzbekistan needs to keep the score low and will trust a rookie keeper to do it; Jordan needs a couple goals for sure and have experience both up top and in back to make it happen. And shoddy though the Jordanian's road record has been (0-4 in Group 4 play), the Uzbek's weren't lights out at home either (dropping 0-1 to Iran when direct qualification was almost within reach).

Much as I've been beating the drum of Uzbekistan as a dark horse special, I've got a bad feeling for the White Wolves and think that Jordan may be on the verge of springing a major upset. The beautiful thing is, the game is not in my mind it's on the pitch, so however it turns out, it should be exciting.

Oh and just in case you're an American who stuck it out this long waiting for the subject to change: take the Broncos, and Patriots for the bye, plus the Texans, Bengals, Steelers and miracle Chiefs--with the Broncs going to the Super Bowl...though unless Abdullah Deeb signs on to catch Peyton Manning's passes, I'm not that interested.

Waning Seconds: CAF Part I--Put Me in Coach

When this publishes I'll be somewhere in the outer most reaches of the Twin Cities Metro shouting for teenagers to run faster. A new gig as a cross-country coach will fill up my time for sure, but it will also remind me of just how much fun you can have when you're helping young people strive for a difficult goal.

Of course, I've got nothing on a national futbol team manager, who has to help young people strive for the difficult goal of being named to the best in the world rather than simply running three miles in less than 30 minutes.

In African qualifying there's just one game left this weekend, where the strong will survive for one more month and one more hurdle before the World Cup final. And while we frequently fixate on the players who make it happen, here's a tip of the cap to the coaches who are striving for the next stage and who we think (based on wikipedia profiles) has the best chance to get them in

Friday

Group D

James Akwasi Appiah has revived the Ghanaian tradition of local bred coaches after a decade under the iron thumbs of a squad of Serbians. The former national team/Asante Kotoko left back has had the Black Stars in fine form, as you might expect from one of Africa's premier footballing nations, but his work isn't done because of the pesky thorn that is Zambia.

"No those shorts don't
make you look fat,
c'mon boys they won't
hold our table!"

On Friday night (Friday morning stateside) in Kumasi Appiah's squad takes on the only team to beat them in qualifying this go-round: the Copper Bullet's of Zambia and their willingly French coach, Herve Renard. Renard's made much of his career in and about Africa following the path of his mentor Claude LeRoy (the grandaddy of all neo-colonial managers), but his recent bout of success with Zambia's impressive: guiding them to their first African Cup of Nations win in 2012, and the first defeat of Ghana in World Cup Qualifying since 2004.

With just one point between them Appiah has the edge here, knowing that any result at all will send them through. Renard will have to play aggressively and have his team attack (likely with captain/Black Star killer Christopher Katonga and young gun Emmanuel Mayuka) before racing back to defend, while Appiah can trust the quiet strength of Ghana's defense to guard themselves. It might not be Appiah's preferred style, but if it does the job, the entire Ghana nation will forgive him.

Saturday Afternoon

Group A

I'm admittedly biased. I got real giddy when I thought Ethiopia had qualified for the third round back in June. They were sunk into the last pot for the Round 2 draw, at the start of the cup they were 35th out of the 40 teams in Round 2. And they were about to qualify...until...they fielded Minyahil Teshome against Botswana...and had their victory over the Zebras stripped away, leaving the final set of games with everything to lose.

Sewnet knows you aren't doing
sit ups with proper form.

So, Sewnet Bishaw (Ethiopia's coach) deserves both a tonnage of credit and a pile of blame. Leave Teshome off the squad you're already in...but he's also responsible for getting the Walia Antelopes this far and for doing it all based on his training as a Phy Ed teacher. Honestly, how do you not root for this guy?

Sewnet's squad gets to face the Central African Republic, but they've done well on the road earning points both in South Africa (draw) and Botswana (the redacted victory), now if they beat bottom-feeding CAR they render the other game moot. Meanwhile Gordon Igesund's Bafana Bafana will be betting it all on a win over Stanley Tsoshane's Zebras of Botswana. The pair of former strikers will likely minimize defense in an attempt to out gun Ethiopia on goal differential, it remains to be seen if the prolific club man (Igesund) will out maneuver the 5-year incumbent (Tsoshane).

Group F

Saintfelt, probably asking: "Is that
Coaching job available?!?!"

As Group A draws to a close the ultimate showdown of ultimate destiny for Group F will kick off in Calabar, Nigeria. The Super Eagles have a 2 point and +1 goal gap against the Red Flames of Malawi. That should play perfectly into ex-National team defender Stephen Okechukwu Keshi's plan, and allow the Confederation Cup squad to rest a lot of men back in defense. I have no idea how Malawi's Tom Saintfelt will counter that, in large part because the itinerant Beligan never seems to stick around one place long enough to reflect a particular skill...heck....this will be his first (and possibly only) game coaching Malawi. But I'll hope he can earn his players support with a few trust falls and community building activities.

Group E

There's more complicated matters afoot in Group E (which gets under way 30 minutes after kickoff in Nigeria). Like Ethiopia, Congo is a big dreamer (emerging from Pot 4) on top of the group with 10 points and will be away to the bottom feeders (Niger). Meanwhile the middle teams (Burkina Faso and Gabon) have 8 and 7 points respectively and will square off in Oagudagu--home to the slightly advantaged Burkina Faso. 

Quick Guess which coach this is!

Group E's coaches are a motley crew of European scamps. There's 52 year old Kamel Djabour who has done well with Congo in his first official placement as a head coach (wikipedia's vague on the details of his relationships with clubs in Benin and Mali--then again at 4 sentences it is 4 sentences longer than my own Wikipedia page). There's former Portuguese league star Paulo Duarte whose time at the head of Gabon's Golden Panthers has been relatively smooth, but will now have to face his old Burkina Faso squad whom he improved by saying "Marry a Burkiniabe get a free Starting Position!" (Note...not really, but I feel like I have to dramatize these player eligibility scandals). Finally, there's Burkina Faso's new man: Paul Put, who (following an undistinguished tenure with The Gambia) is attempting to salvage his career after a three-year ban for his part in a match-fixing scandal (notably, he was the only one who accepted any kind of punishment for it).

So, who do you root for? The older neophyte? The rule bending itinerant? Or the reformed match-fixer? Yeah...it's the underdog Congo again, isn't it?

Group B

What should you watch after your Saturday morning chores, with an easy to make deli sandwich in hand and the promise of a nap in the offing? Well...if you actually want to nap I'm sure there's a golf tournament somewhere. But if you want entertainment you might try to see if you can catch the showdown games for Group B and J

The last nation standing up to the promise of the Arab Spring: Tunisia gets to host Cape Verde Islands in Rades. The Blue Sharks are decided underdogs but have one big asset in coach Ulisses Indalecio Silva Antunes (Lucio to his friends), consistency. Antunes has been with Cape Verde since 2010, leaving the cushy gig of Air-Traffic controller for the public vilification of national team futbol coach. Cape Verde's gotten progressively better over time, but Tunisia has a two point lead and hasn't lost a match at home in over a year (they've only played at home twice...but still!).

It remains to be seen what Nabil Maaloul will do with the Eagles of Carthage, he's unbeaten since taking the reins in March, but has never managed a game this big for the national team side before. Chances are Tunisia plays a well structured, defensively minded game to solidify their lead in points and goals; but as long as air traffic controllers can morph into futbol managers, there's hope for Cape Verde.

Dream the dream Ulisses!

Group J

Wrapping up an absurdly busy day of African qualifiers is the Group J showdown between Senegal and Uganda...in Morocco. Why Morocco you ask? Well, apparently fans of the Lions of Teranga didn't feel like behaving themselves during ACN qualifiers last year so now they don't get to watch any games at all...so there! PBBBT!

Michel!! Vous etes mon
meilleur ami!! MEILLEUR!!

The Cranes of Uganda are in the unenviable position of having to win to stay alive, and having to do so with one of the recently fashionable, defensive minded, Serbian coaches: Milutin Sredojevic. Sredojevic was unceremoniously sacked by Rwanda in April having gotten them only one point in three matches, but he has already helped net Uganda six points through June qualifiers (courtesy of one early goal and a pile of defense against Liberia and two late goals against Angola). Those six points saw Uganda soar from bottom of the group to second ahead of the match against Senegal.

The Senegalese get French Midfield legend Alain Giresse whose old running-mate in Le Carre Magique, Michel Platini, may soon end up running FIFA. Giresse has Senegal gunning for their second Cup qualification ever (and first since the '02 Quarterfinalists). Though Senegal's just a point up on Uganda, the young and explosive side fits very nicely with Giresse's style making the road ahead that much tougher for Uganda

Sunday

Group I

There will also be plenty of matches on Sunday, mostly featuring the teams from groups C, G, and H where it's all been decided in favor of first-time manager Sabri Lamouchi's Ivory Coast, American exile Bob Bradly's Egypt and Bosnian survivor Vahid Halilhodžić's Algeria.

But there is one match worth keeping an eye on: Cameroon and Libya from Yaounde early on Sunday morning, and it's one that may effect the employment of two coaches heading in very different direction

Finke on eine hotten seaten!

Volker Finke, a German of some renown brought in to seal the deal for Cameroon has been underwhelming since taking over in May, losing at Togo and drawing at Kinshasa. Fortunately, thanks to Togo fielding an ineligible player, they were awarded a victory and pushed to the top of the table while Togo was knocked out. Still, this isn't what the Indomitable Lions were expecting and Finke's neck may be on the line.

The same holds true for Libya's Abdulhafeedh Arbeesh, widely seen as a mere caretaker, Arbeesh has helped the Mediterranean Knights stay afloat in qualifying and they would be head of the table if not for Togo's ineligible player issue. A win will get Libya closer to qualifying for the World Cup than ever before, and despite reports of a new manager on the horizon, it would be hard to tell Arbeesh..."thanks for everything...now get out!"

The hardest thing about all of this is that no matter who wins this weekend, half of these managers will be stymied at the next level. Only 5 African teams will move on, and given the recent surge in success for localized African coaches it's hard not to hope that even more of them triumph than we might otherwise predict.

After the matches shake out on Sunday we'll bid a Happy Trails to those who are done and keep a weather eye out for the pairings for Round 3.

Starting XI: Lines from Fever Pitch that Capture a Futbol Fan's Existence

Though I think Nick Hornsby's book is more squarely focused on the comic tragedy of being a club supporter, I did think that these 11 lines were universal to all football fans. So I'll write them here as a way to kick start the month of September and include a brief explanation for each.

The game is omnipresent:
I. I have measured out my life in...fixtures, and any event of any significance has a footballing shadow. (p. 81)

It approaches an obsession:
II. We invest hours each day, months each year, years each lifetime in something over which we have no control; is it any wonder then, that we are reduced to creating ingenious but bizzarre liturgies [for good luck] designed to give us the illusion that we are powerful after all, just as every other primitive community has done when faced with a deep and apparently impenetrable mystery? (p. 111)

Defeats are a private pain...:

III. We are secretly convinced that none of the other fans understands quite why we have been harder hit than anyone else--we are forced to mourn in public, surrounded by people whose hurt is expressed in forms different from our own. (p. 109)

...that stem from a common deprivation:

IV. When our teams lose...we think of the colleagues and classmates we have to face on Monday morning, and of the delirium that has been denied us (p. 66)


But it remains inescapable:
V. It would be absurd to pretend that my allegiance was sorely tested: I never once thought of abandoning the team simply because they were incapable of beating anyone at all...After a while, when winning a game appeared to be an option that had somehow become impossible, we began to replace the satisfaction of winning: goals, draws, a brave performance in the face of overwhelmingly hostile fortune...these all became causes for quiet, if occasionally self-mocking celebration. (p. 150)

Largely because we simply love it for the sake of loving it
VI. It simply doesn't matter to me how bad things get, that results have nothing to do with anything. As I have implied before, I would like to be one of those people who treat their local team like their local restaurant and thus withdraw their patronage if they are being served up noxious rubbish. But unfortunately...there are many fans like me. For us, the consumption is all; the quality of the product is immaterial. (150)

And we know we are part of a broader community...

VII. It is true that most football fans do not have an Oxbridge degree; but then most football fans do not have a criminal record, or carry knives, or urinate in pockets, or get up to any of the things they are supposed to do. (p. 96)

A community that is both conscious and unconscious
VIII. I love...the fact that old girlfriends and other people you have lost touch with and will probably never see again are sitting in front of their TV set and thinking, momentarily but all at the same time [about you], and are happy or sad for [you]. Nobody else gets that, only us. (p. 195)

We live in our own world
IX. [Football] is not an escape, or a form of entertainment, but a different version of the world. (p. 164)

Where the potential of triumph is sheer bliss

X. I can recall nothing else that I have coveted for two decades (what else is there that can reasonably be coveted for that long?), nor can I recall anything else that I have desired as both man and boy. So please, be tolerant of those who describe a sporting moment as their best ever. We do not lack imagination, nor have we had sad and barren lives; it is just that real life is paler, duller, and contains less potential for unexpected delirium (p. 231)

And deeply personal
XI. The joy we feel on [championship winning] occasions...is not a celebration of others' good fortune, but a celebration of our own; and when there is a disastrous defeat the sorrow that engulfs us is, in effect, self-pity, and anyone who wishes to understand how football is consumed must realize this above all things. The players are merely our representatives, chosen by the manager rather than elected by us, but our representatives nonetheless....I am a part of this club, just as the club is a part of me; and I say this fully aware that the club exploits me, disregards my views, and treats me shoddily on occasions, so my feeling of organic connection is not built on a muddleheaded and sentimental understanding of how professional football works....This [championship belongs] to me [the fan] every bit as much as it [belongs to the players], and I worked every bit as hard as they did. The only difference between me and them is that I have put in more hours, more years, more decades than them, and so had a better understanding of the afternoon, a sweeter appreciation of why the sun still shines when I remember it. (p. 187)

Or to put all of that in one simple line:
Life isn't, and it never has been, a 2-0 home victory against the League leaders after a fish-and-chip lunch. (p. 52)

Random Thoughts on a Day of Random Friendlies

Turn on the tv and discover that, hey! The US is playing a friendly in Bosnia! What better time than this to write down a bunch of random thoughts about Soccer!! I can't promise they'll be brilliant or necessarily accurate...but they will be random.

*Every time I microwave a meal and walk away from a sporting event the opponent scores. These pork tacos better be tasty to make up for Bosnia's lead.

*They are.

*I never get fired up about Balkan state soccer...don't know why, maybe the consonants are intimidating.

*Another goal gets us to half-time...I'm guessing there's a Archduke Ferdinand joke on our horizon

*Thanks for proving me right Bob Ley.

*I'll always picture Alexei Lalas with a beehive on his chin.

*Is Mexico becoming the Guns 'n' Roses of North American Soccer? Filling arenas based totally on name recognition rather than any kind of talent?

*I feel like I should say something about Germany Paraguay, but all that comes to mind is: Nyah, nyah, nyah, nyah, nyah.

*I'd pay a large amount of money for an audio recording of Mario Balotelli and Pope Francis.

*Wonder if Pope Francis is mocking the cardinals because Argentina's winning.

*Seriously, we don't get to see Scotland's goal? STOP HIBERNIAN OPPRESSION!!

*Second half starts in the Snoozefest in Sarejevo! (Is what I would say if Don King promoted soccer matches)

*Isn't it sweet that Jozy Altidore shares the love with Eddie Johnson...well...sweet and dangerous for reproductive health.

*Dang, Altidore took Lalas' snark to heart, maybe we shall doubt him a little more...

*Oh c'mon Bosnia, you're a hardened, grizzly, Balkan nation...you don't need to flop about like a bankrupt Mediterranean nation.

*$#!T Altidore's an f'ing beast!! (These are the things that are said now, because Soccer's not mainstream)

*HOLY MOTHER!! A hat-trick?!? A hat-trick?!?! I feel increasingly like we need to genuflect to this man...oh wait...we should try the Lalas approach. "A hat trick and assist has to be expected for anyone who calls themselves a real man..."

*Maybe Bosnia's only mostly dead...after all, they are 13th in the world...unlucky 13th...

*Alright, I admit that this might be a gross overreaction to just one match. But if we can beat Bosnia IN Bosnia, we can beat Bosnia (and others) in Brazil...this would be heightened expectations.

*Suarez and Forlan have a bromace that makes Altidore and Johnson look like cruel rivals

*My high hopes for Japan are being dashed with each match (but my love of Keisuke Honda isn't.

*Chile toyed with Iraq in the box like an 8 year old plays with Tonka trucks

There you have it, I promised random thoughts and I delivered.

Starting XI: New Faces, New Places

With the club season about to kick off in earnest (notably in the Barclay's premiership which is the easiest league for Motnanans and other Americans to watch) I wanted to take a minute to review another Starting XI. This month, 11 players who will be on new teams in the Premiership this season and who will be trying to use that transfer spot to set themselves up for glory on an even bigger stage at next year's World Cup. (And because I feel like it, we'll run it as a 3-4-3 line up.)

I. Marteen Stekelenburg (GK--Netherlands/Fulham)
Growing in to Edwin Van Der Saar's ginormous shoes is a bit of a tricky business, but Stekelenburg more than rose to the occasion in South Africa. Limiting world class opposition to four goals from the run of play over seven matches. After a long career with Ajax he had a pair of disappointing years with Roma (finishing 6th and 7th, while finishing middle of the table in Goals allowed). Coming to the Premiership, he'll hope for a stronger showing to set up a Dutch team that's very close to qualifying.

II. Fernando Amorebieta (D--Venezuela/Fulham)

Amorebieta is an unusual story. He nearly got a cap with La Furia Roja before joining his home land in Venezuela. With an impeccable sense of timing, he scored the lone goal in La Vinotino's first every qualifier win over L'Albiceleste [Argentina]. It could be a bit of a wrench going from Craven Cottage in London back and forth to South American qualifiers, and as a relatively inexperienced player he may not be asked to. But with Venezuela tied with Uruguay for fifth place, and matches coming up against the bottom three teams in the table could give them a great opportunity to try Fernando out before next summer--a summer he'd get to spend in Brazil if he's in form.

III. Dejan Lovren (D--Croatia/Southhampton)

Like Croatia itself, Lovren has been flying under the radar for a little while, particularly as his playing time has steaily decreased with Olympique Lyonnais (though he did see action in Europe). Meanwhile, the Croats have soared as high as third in the world and are guaranteed a spot in at least the playoffs (with Belgium cruising ahead of them, they may need it). Now with the Saints aspiring to stay clear of the relegation spots, Lovren's play ought to help steady a shaky defense.

IV. Razvan Rat (D--Romania/West Ham United)

Rat is the strongest stalwart in Romania's defense, and as the Tricolorii sit in third place of Group D, they're going to need some strong defense to have a shot at passing either Hungary or Holland. Luckily they'll be playing at home for 3 of their final 4 matches (and they'll be facing bottom feeders Turkey, Estonia and Andorra once each). If Rat can stand up to Premiership talent he'll easily stand up to those three countries.

V. Paulinhio (MF--Brazil/Tottenham)
Moving into the more high profile transfers, Paulinhio's squad is already booked into the World Cup (hosting it has its perks after all). With 17 caps and a stellar showing at this years Confederations Cup Paulinhio is pretty secure in his spot on the Finals squad...provided he avoids injury, and since he'll be playing for Tottenham and their accursed luck, that might take some doing.

VI. Jesus Navas (MF--Spain/Manchester City)
Speaking of Confederation Cup revelations (at least to the non-club-scene footie fan), Navas served as Spain's supersub during the tournament and was a instrumental in getting them into the finals (sure they got smoked by Brazil in the finals, but that's beside the point). Now with Man City, Navas has the chance to establish himself as a topflight midfielder in advance of La Furia Roja's title defense (assuming they can get in ahead of France)


VII. Emanuele Giaccherini (MF--Italy/Sunderland)
With Italy in good position to qualify ahead of Bulgaria in Group B, Giaccherini main goal will be to help the Black Cats stay in the first division (alongside fellow international additions Jozy Altidore [US] and David Molberg Kaarlson [Sweden]). As the only Confederations Cup cap winner to play outside of Italy, the more Giaccherini helps Sunderland, the more he helps himself stay in the starting line-up.

VIII. Aleksander Tonev (MF--Bulgaria/Aston Villa)

Bulgaria's fallen a long way since Hirsto Stoichkov's heroics saw them finish fourth in 1994, but they're back in contention this time around sitting at second in their group with four matches left to go. Tonev, who racked up a hat-trick against Malta earlier in qualifying, isn't yet a lock to be selected for the final squads, but shows a level of promise that other Bulgarian's haven't. If Tonev can help one group of Lions he'll be better positioned to help another. ('Cause they're both nicknamed the Lions, get it?)


IX. Wilfried Bony (F--Ivory Coast/Swansea)
Heir to the throne of Didier Drogba, Wilfried's move to the Welsh club puts him in position to match up with fellow Elephants strikers Aroune Kone (Everton) and Gervinho (Arsenal). Right now, Bony's young enough and inexperienced enough to rank as a fourth or fifth option up top (behind Kone, Gervinho, Solomon Kolou, and Drogba provided he's fit and has a pulse). Still, Bony's got three goals in qualifying and should have a shot at some action when Ivory Coast sets up its final qualifying home-and-away in October.

X. Stefan Jovetic (F--Montenegro/Manchester City)
Another addition to the Sky Blues (alongside Jesus Navas), Jovetic has a slightly more awkward position in the Premiership. Play well and he might be instrumental in this year's race for the title. Play well and he might well help Montenegro qualify for their first World Cup only 7 years after becoming an independent national side...of course, if that happens, he might leave England's national team on the outside looking in. (Keep an eye on the October 11th match at Wembley to see if he's a golden boy or a goat)


XI. Andre Schurrle (F--Germany/Chelsea)
Schurrle's youth and promise make him seem, for all the world, like the future of German striking. Of course the present of German striking is already pretty good (with Miroslav Klose, Lukas Podolski and Mario Gomez). Still, the chance to refine his skill in the best European League with one of the best European clubs gives Schurrle a great opportunity to position himself as a serious contender for a spot off the bench for a team that makes World Cup Semifinals with as much blase consistency as it makes loans to EU neighbors.

So there's the 11 men to keep an eye on as the premiership gets started this month. And with any luck, they'll be 11 to keep an eye on through next June as well.

Who's cheating now?

If there's one thing I love about FIFA it's how long they wait before announcing that someone has done something wrong.

No...wait...that bugs me.

Turns out that two CAF teams who thought they were set for the playoff rounds will be playing meaningful games when the final match day (September 7th) rolls around.

The hardest hit goes to Ethiopia which might be the best story of African qualifying so far. The Black Lions have been trying to qualify since November 2011, when they needed a play-in home-and-away with Somalia just to get to the group stage. Only two teams from the play-in games still have a chance to qualify.

While Ethiopia looked to have qualified at the end of June after a pair of victories over South Africa and Botswana, they now have only one victory?

Sometimes it's okay to watch
from the bench Minyahile

How you might ask?


Apparently, the Ethiopian team and head coach Sewnet Bishaw forgot the whole "two yellow cards requires a game suspension" rule, and nobody thought to remind them of it during the whole course of the playing the game. So Minyahile Teshome Beyene, we hope you enjoyed playing that day, because it's suddenly made group A competitive again.

Yes, now Botswana and South Africa are alive and in the hunt for the next round. Fortunately, Ethiopia still tops their group and since the Zebras and Bafana Bafana are playing each other next, the Black Lions just need a better result against bottom feeding C.A.R. and they'll be in to the next round.

Emilio scoffs at article 55

Meanwhile Equitorial Guinea forfeiting their recent win against Cape Verde doesn't mean much...to Equitorial Guinea. They were last before, they are last now. Emilo Nsue Lopez (he of the joint Equitorian/Spanish citizenship) and Equitorial Guinea violated article 55 paragraph 1 (the most important paragraph of all article 55), so what was a 2-1 loss, becomes a 3-0 loss.


Again, big woop for Equitorial Guinea, but somewhat of a big woop for Cape Verde who sees their goal differential go from plus 3 to plus 5. Still, since they play group leading Tunisia in September, it's still win or go home for the Blue Sharks. (And actually, since they're playing in Rades, Tunisia it will more likely be win, lose or draw AND go home).

So congrats to Cape Verde, Botswana and South Africa...your dreams live again. And tough luck to Ethiopia here's hoping your little faux pas doesn't cost you a trip to Brazil.

(please note that the happy trails post has been updated to reflect these changes)

Lessons from the Confederations Cup: 3 On/3 Off

Later today my wife and I will fly off for England and Scotland. My dreams of seeing a premier league match are not to be met (it's July after all) but I've got fingers crossed that we'll find some footy entertainment somewhere. Until we return, here's this post.

Inside of a year to go until the World Cup in Brazil, there are very few chances left to get any real sense of who can or will do well next June. And while it might still be way too early to make any kind of assumptions or conclusions about good, bad and i-between, it's also way to quiet this summer to ignore it.


So here's another in the oft-forgotten 3 On/3 Off series where we identify 3 positives and 3 less-than positives from a major tournament.

3 On

Neymar (2nd from R) That's my next haircut!
(cdn3.news.co.nz)

1. Neymar is every bit as good as advertised. The run up to this tournament was all about the youngster from Mogi das Cruces. Would he be the million dollar man Barcelona thought he was? Would he be another case of dynamic youngster out of his depth in international competition? Would he have an ugly hair cut? The answers, as we all know now, are yes, no and yes. His fluidity and inventive style of play clearly justify the faith of the millions in green and gold throughout Brazil, and even make me pause before I comment on the soggy tea cozy atop his head. With a more than competent ally up front in Fred and an increasingly confident set of backs shoring up the defense, Brazil is officially back.
2. Only fools doubt Spain. We're all a little desperate for some drama in international soccer, so the stories have begun: Spain is getting older. Spain is getting tired. Spain is too unsure of the next generation. Pbbt on all of that. Spain is every bit the well-oiled, soul-crushing machine they have ever been, and while there have been brief spurts of teams like Nigeria and Italy looking ominous in their own end, once La Furia Roja gets control in midfield it's all over but the crying. And even despite the final drubbing at the hands of the Selacao, they still have to be deemed favorites
3. Dilma Roussef and the Brazilian Government is very smart.  Here's a little lesson for all future cup hosts: if you spend billions of dollars on a bunch of fancy pants stadia built to sell Pepsi and Hyundai to the world and then ask average citizens to pay more for things like busses or schools, be prepared for citizens to get pissed. Better still, let them be pissed. Let the march. Let them demonstrate. Let them exercise their rights as citizens. And make absolutely sure that Pepsi and Hyundai execs ride the bus at least once or twice. That's the way to be a modern nation where disagreement does not equal destabilization (hint hint Egypt/Turkey)

3 Off

"Why do my teeth hurt? Could it be all that biting of opponents?"
(adammjohnston.wordpress.com via SBNation)

1. Luis Suarez is a jerk...maybe without a future. It really doesn't fail does it. Luis Suarez shows up on the pitch and the dander of anyone who roots for Ghana, or for Patrice Evra, or for just--you know--not biting people, gets their dander up. Luis Suarez has tremendous talent, but won't ever be a global favorite when his behavior makes him seem like a crazy man's Diego Maradona (yeah...that's pretty crazy). But with Uruguay in 5th place in Conmebol qualifying, with Diego Forlan aging rapidly, with Edinson Cavani alternating hot and cold, and with la Celeste's defense folding against top flight scorers like a Tide commercial soccer mom, there's no guarantee that he'll get to bring his madness back next summer...please, oh please...let's go everybody else in South America.
2. Expect more disappointment in Asia, Africa, North America and Oceania. As major supporters of the minnows of international soccer, our biggest disappointment in watching the Confederations Cup was the utter destruction of anything not from Europe or South America. Worse still, with the exception of Tahiti, these are teams that ought to represent the best of their continents. Yet Japan came way with nothing, Mexico slightly more than nothing (but even more scorn and derision from pundits), and Nigeria came away with the standard issue victory over Tahiti and a solid half against Spain. These are not the most promising signs of greater parity in the global game. Drat.
3. Hold off on that Hulk reboot. It's okay Disney, you can shed a tear over soccer. Admit it, it was too good to be true: your most successful tv station (ESPN) is all geared up to lovingly ogle Brazilian futbol, and perhaps the most ogle-able Brazilian player is named "Hulk"after a character in your most successful film franchise (Marvel comics). You could practically hear the keyboards rattling off spec scripts in Malibu coffee shops where Mark Ruffalo meanders down by Ipanema bumping into the staggering striker in a winking little aside. Then the Zenit St. Petersburg man went and underwhelmed us all (not unlike the Hulk movies themselves), next year's a long way away, but Disney's cross-platform synergy is on the verge of sputtering out.