Shooting From the Hip: The Western Hemisphere (CONCAF/CONMEBOL)

With this summer's confederation cups wrapped up, International competition is about ready to refocus on qualification for the 2018 World Cup. Most people won't pay much attention to these matches for another two years...but those people aren't crazy Montanans (thankfully, or I'd have no niche market at all).

Since the qualifying draws were held two weeks ago in Russia, I've been positively deliberate in creating these predictions (oh, who am I kidding, I made the predictions on the day and only just took the time to write it).

We'll start our predictions in the Western Hemisphere with predictions for rounds three and four of CONCACAF (which will be wrapped up next year) and the single round of CONMEBOL (which won't end until the fall of 2017).

CONCACAF ROUND 3

August 31st-September 15 2015

Matches:

Curacao V. El Salvador

Canada V. Belize

Grenada V. Haiti

Jamaica V. Nicaragua

St. Vincent and the Grenadines V. Aruba

Antigua and Barbuda V. Guatemala

The Favorites:

In CONCACAF the safest way to predict things is to count on the higher ranked teams moving on, chalk talks in North America, with the lone possible exception at matches in Central America.  Haiti's recent form (including a game performance against the US and a draw against China--in China) has served them well enough to make them a heavy favorite over Grenada, and Jamaica's Gold Cup Silver Medal and Caribbean Cup victory certainly gives them momentum over Nicaragua. This draw also plays to those groups with Guatemala, El Salvador and Canada all facing minnows both of size and of history.

Some would say I cheer for McCaulay
and Belize because I like to mock Canada...
those people are right.

The Darkhorses: The most prolific scorer in recent CONCACAF qualifier history is Deon McCaulay who Minnesota fans may know best from a fourteen cap, three goal performance with the Atlanta Silverbacks last year. His 11 goals made him a co-golden boot winner from qualification alongside little known strikers Luis Suarez and Robin Van Persie. Some would point out that this is more a reflection of the paucity of CONCACAF defenses and the lack of a second option in Belize, but the truth is somewhat in between as McCaulay is indeed a force up top and a key difference maker for the Jaguars, even if it is about to set him up against a stout Canadian defense.

The only oddball match up is between underwhelming sides from St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Aruba where the "Vincy Heat" ceded 6 goals and needed away goals to pass Guyana and after a year off the field, Aruba came up goalless in two matches against Barbados, relying on Barbados disqualifying themselves to advance.

Qualifiers

El Salvador; Belize; Haiti; Jamaica; St. Vincent; Guatemala

CONCAF ROUND 4

November 2015-September 2016

Top Two Teams from Each Group Qualify for the Hexagon

GROUP A: Mexico, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize

Never gets old...unless you're the
Mexican FA

Favorites: Despite the run-of-the-mill (by team Mexico standards) coaching drama, selection drama and performance anxiety, El Tri is still a team to beat especially within CONCACAF. The days of Giovanni Dos Santos and Javier Hernandez as the heralds of a supposed "Golden Generation" have faded, but they still represent some of the youngest talent on a veteran Mexico squad. As ever, the only thing that can get in Mexico's way, is Mexico. 

Dark Horse: Though they are often the chosen whipping boys for beefier sides in North and South America, El Salvador boasts a young and growing squad that continues to cut its teeth in foreign leagues. My fellow Minnesotans may recognize Midfielders Dustin Corea (Edmonton), Richard Menjivar (Tampa Bay) and 24-year-old captain Andres Flores (New York Cosmos). "La Selecta" may be peaking at just the right time, particularly with a mishmash of a Honduras squad that has been erratic and best and dismal at worst since their qualification for last June's World Cup.

GROUP B: Costa Rica, Panama, Haiti, Jamaica

Favorite: Los Ticos set the world on fire with their quarterfinal appearance last summer, and nearly set themselves on fire to protest the match fixy unfortunate refereeing in their quarterfinal against Mexico. Truth be told the last three months have not been kind to Costa Rica, with scuffles against Panama, Colombia and Spain, and lackluster draws against Mexico, Jamaica and El Salvador.  Still, the talent and recent success of the team makes them the team to beat in Group B.

Dark Horse: It's a shame really, because I can talk myself into all three of the other squads cruising through qualification in Group C and having a better than average chance in Group A. While I've talked before about Jamaica's defense being its new found key to success (a 370 minute goalless stretch during the Gold Cup was instrumental in their silver medal), and though Haiti is an intriguing squad of international vagabonds (two play in NASL, two in India, and two in Cyprus), I think it's worth noting the perennially, unregarded Panama squad that earned its third place finish at the 2015 Gold Cup--and maybe even more thanks to the aforementioned idiotic questionable refereeing of any game Mexico played in. In Panama's last six confederation tournaments they've made the semis in five and they had the pole position for World Cup Qualifying in 2013 until a miraculous bicycle kick pushed Mexico on. Only one of those three teams will hit the Hexagon, and until proven otherwise I think it's Panama.

The Panamaian Version of Morten Andersen

GROUP C: USA, Trinidad and Tobago, St Vincent/Grenadines, Guatemala

Favorite: U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A! Seriously, who cares if we can't figure out a back line, create consistent service or find a second goal scoring option behind an aging Clint Dempsey, we're America dad blast it and we will win this group!! U-S-A!! U-S-A!! Klinsmann for Chancellor!!

Also, a Guatemala win is a win for
70s FA logos!

Dark Horse: Despite the Soca Warriors recent offensive outburst (built largely through veteran striker Kenwyne Jones) their swings in play (they lost to Curacao in May but won their Gold Cup group), make them an ideal target for an upset minded squad. Enter Guatemala (La Furia Azul) who have balanced veteran strikers with a young and energetic midfield many of whom play together at CSD Comunicaciones, the dominant force in the Guatemalan league. 

HEXAGON QUALIFIERS: Mexico, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama, USA, Guatemala

CONMEBOL

September 4th, 2015-October 10th 2017

South America does it simply: All ten teams play each other in a standard round-robin league style. The top four advance, fifth place takes on Oceania's best team (*HINT* IT'S NEW ZEALAND!) for a play-in (*HINT* THE SOUTH AMERICAN TEAM IS GOING TO SUCCEED!!)

Favorites: There's little point in rehashing how dominant Argentina has become, nor how quietly consistent Chile is and how ineffably promising Colombia appears. Those three squads, even with two years and 18 matches to play, look like easy qualifiers. 

Yes, Enner, I'm excited about your chances too!

Dark Horse: The far bigger drama is whether any team can snipe a spot from the aging giants of the South American game: Brazil and Uruguay. While Dunga's Brazil has been a Bizarro-World version of the Selacao that the world came to know and fear (and even the methodical branding machine that made Ronaldo's crew so ubiquitous), Uruguay has seen their recent success pull a quiet nucleus farther apart on the world stage making reunions and consistency difficult. The recent Copa America showed just how easily local minnows can outperform their higher profile neighbors, with Paraguay, Bolivia and Peru each offering a surprise. But CONMEBOL qualifying isn't a sprint, it's a marathon, and the only squad that looks equipped at that task (despite their own lackluster performance in Chile this summer) is Ecuador. With both big game experience and a habit of consistently seeking out tougher competition for the next generation to compete with, Los Amarillos have a solid chance to surprise, particularly if players like Jonathan Gonzalez and Carlos Gruezo see greater opportunities in the upper levels of foreign leagues to build their confidence with the corps of a national team based in country.

PREDICTED AUTO QUALIFIERS: Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Brazil

PLAY-OFF TEAM: Ecuador

Starting XI (A Month Late): Granting Montanan Passports

I know that most football fans are fixated on the current league season, and while we too are interested in the fates of the world's best footballers, we'll also take some time this year to shout out smaller regional tournaments [such as those for Central America (going on in the US right now!), the Caribbean (November in Jamaica), Southeast Asia (December in Vietnam), Asia (January in Australia), and Africa (January/February in Morocco)]

But before we do that, let's take a minute to reflect on the players at the recent World Cup who impressed us most. Players we would want for a Montanan National team--if such a thing were to exist. Players who fit the Montana model: gritty, tough, dedicated, passionate, and just a little quirky (Ronaldo's and Muller's need not apply). And since FIFA's relatively easy going about the whole "actually being a citizen" thing, we might as well shoot for the stars with our starting eleven.


Here's our guys:

I. Tim Howard--As if there could be any one else. Timmy is welcome in Montana any time, the beard, the tats, the blunt and forceful shouting...he basically is Montana any time, so sign on up Tim-bo, we'll be happy to have you.

II. Stefan De Vrij--For the sector of the state that farms and ranches (which is to say...most of it), you need to be tireless, dedicated, omnipresent. There's no off day, no vacation time. And watching the Dutch run to third place it was clear that there was no break for Stefan De Vrij. So welcome aboard Stefan, there's a nice couple acres out north of Choteau if you're interested.

III. Matt Hummels--Montana has an ample German history, strong willed immigrants who stake out the land and hold on to it, come hell or high water. Hummels would fit that mold nicely, grinding through every match, but showing enough of an offensive streak to be a little bit dangerous too. We're printing out "Private Property" signs for him to put around the 6 yard box.

AND he has the quintessential Montanan basement

IV. David Luiz--Lest you think we're all grizzled ranch hands, remember we also have Missoula...a city weird enough to make Austin jealous with none of the vainglorious self importance. David Luiz would be a perfect Missoulian representative: the hair of a hippy, the soul of a leader.

V. Mario Ypes--As long as we're tending to often ignored demographics, why not get some of Montana's quickly aging population on board? I think if we offer them a representative on the team, say, Ypes, the certified crotchety old man of Colombia, we could have a little sympathy for the squad amongst the VAs and retirement homes.

VI. Javier Mascherano--Along with Montana's age and agriculture, we have a fierce artistic streak. That's where Mascherano comes in. The soul of an artist with the body and style of a defender, he's a perfect piece of dualism within a dualized state.

VII. Bastian Schweinsteiger--This is simple: the man is talented and has a name that would be great fun to hear all my dear hoarse and disbelieving neighbors say.

Don't shush my Alps mockery!

VIII. Xerdan Shaqiri--While Montanans tend to confine their Swiss appreciation to the Miss and the Cheese (I mean...you call the "Alps" mountains...please). Shaqiri feels like a great fit for my own home town of Great Falls, a flier of sorts with a bad-boy mohawk, but enough attacking energy to keep the kids and the seniors alike well pleased.


IX. Celso Borges--Costa Rica's overlooked midfielder offers a quiet, dependable presence, with little emphasis on style and a whole lot of focus on work ethic. He actually could spend his down time baling hay or on a thresher.

Your secret's safe with us

X. Enner Valencia--Ecuador's top striker just feels right for the Montanan national team. He's not the first name you think of, he's not the most dominating or domineering figure, but he's dangerous...always dangerous.

XI. Reza Goochenhejad--In the spirit of "to each his own" Montanan individualism, and with a consideration for some fierce patriotism, we'd be happy to adopt the Gooch as our own Double agent. He already serves that purpose on the field, employing a mostly defensive mindset with splashes of daring attacks.

There you go Treasure Staters, that's my pick for the Montana National Starting 11. Would we win? No. Would we make the finals? No. Would we be bad ass? Yes...and that's all that matters.

Starting XI: Cashing In--World Cup Transfers and the Price of Beef Jerky

In honor of Labour Day, let's appreciate what it's all about: honoring the workers of the world...especially those who have made an obscene amount of money via the transfer window after the world cup. (I assume that was Marx's vision: "From each club according to their means, to each player according to a completely random sum of ever increasing money."



Let's go ahead and total the tonnage of cash expended in the last two months on players who grabbed eyeballs and earned screams from the various supporters and rivals in terms of how much they are making, and how much beef jerky (particularly--Hi-Country Top Quality Beef Jerky--11 ounce packages at $12.95 each) they seem to be worth

I. Claudio Bravo (Chile/Barcelona Goalkeeper)--10 Million Pounds Transfer Fee/1.28 Million packs of Jerky. 
The highest transfer fee for a keeper this window, Bravo is a more reliable and known property than the world's most darling keeper: Keylor Navas (who still drew in a handsome 8 Million from Real Madrid). His hard luck loss in the playoff round against Brazil didn't bother Barca, nor should it.


II. Luke Shaw (England/Manchester Utd Defender)--33 Million Pound Transfer/4.23 Million packs of Jerky
England's underwhelming performance wasn't laid at the feet of Luke Shaw. After all, his one match (v.s. Costa Rica) was the only one where the Lions kept the ball out of the back of the net. Shaw joined the exodus out of surprising South Hampton this summer heading for the read devils for a wad of cash, and an equal amount of Teriyaki Beef Jerky.

III. David Luiz (Brazil/Paris St. Germain Defender)--43 Million Pounds Transfer/5.49 Million packs of jerky

The most famous head of hair from the back line of Brazil, Luiz left the premiership for the more fashionable and stylish Paris St. Germain. With all the money and praise, one has to hope that Luiz recognizes that he can and should run...even if there are Germans against him.

IV. Elaquim Mangala (France/Manchester City Defender) 35 Million Pounds Transfer/5.46 Million Packs of Jerky
While Mangala, did not feature for France, there was still considerable enthusiasm for him, particularly amongst the Premierships most reliable money geyser: Manchester City. As he matures and grows, you have to hope that he's reliable in defense...or at least, you do if you're French.


V. Angel Di Maria (Argentina/Manchester United Winger)--65 Million Pound Transfer/8.3 Million Packs of Jerky
The most recent transfer (required once United started stinking like yesterday's fish) Di Maria had been having a fine World Cup until an injury 33 minutes into the semifinal left him sitting and staring as Germany triumphed. I imagine that he can dry his eyes on his huge piles of money...or his huge piles of Honey Kist jerky, which would be more absorbent.

VI. James Rodriguez (Colombia/Real Madrid Midfielder)--70 Million Pound Transfer/8.93 Million Packs of Jerky
The hottest name at the World Cup (hotter even than "Hansel"), James (pronounced Ha-mez) was the undeniable star of the undeniable tournament darling. He may well be the man in the middle for one of the most eagerly anticipated squads at Russsia 2018. But before then he'll be the heir apparent to Cristiano Ronaldo amongst Los Galacticos

VII. Antoine Griezman (France/Atletico Madrid Midfielder)--26 Million Pound Transfer/3.31 Million Packs of Jerky
Sure, there are other players who were deemed to be worth a little more money, but we've got a soft spot for Griezmann, our previously noted "Hip-Star" for the French squad, who did quite well in coverage for Franck Ribery. So well, in fact that Les Blus might have been the last real threat to Germany's title aspirations. Now he's on with La Liga champions and looking thoroughly eager for more glory.

VIII. Alexis Sanchez (Chile/Arsenal Winger)--33 Million Pound Transfer/4.23 Million packs of Jerky
When Chile was at their best in Brazil, it usually had something to do with Alexis Sanchez, darting, dodging, digging deep and doing other things that start with D. Now with the Gunners, Sanchez has perhaps even weightier expectations on his shoulders with Arsenal expecting a trophy at last. With that much heavy lifting ahead, he may want to invest some of his money in power packed protein of peppered Hi-Country Jerky!


IX. Romelu Lukaku (Belgium/Everton Forward)--31 Million Pound Transfer/3.95 Million Packs of Jerky
Lukaku is best known by American fans as "that-guy-who-crushed-our-dreams". But, as a herd of world cup fans make the segue to the Premiership, a large proportion of us seem likely to adopt Lukaku's new squad--the under awarded, highly enthusiastic Toffees of Liverpool. Just remember fellow hipster US/Everton fans--he did celebrate crushing our dreams by saying "Hi Mom"

X. Diego Costa (Spain/Chelsea Forward)--33 Million Pounds Transfer/4.23 Million packs of Jerky
The most valuable player in La Liga last year, the man who almost single handedly delivered Atletico Madrid the title (above Barcelona, above cross town rivals Real Madrid), he now has a chance to prove himself in the Premiership amongst the similarly high profile, highly paid Chelsea signings.

XI. Luis Suarez (Uruguay/Barcelona Forward)--71 Million Pounds Transfer/9.05 Million Packs of Jerky
The most expensive transfer of the summer is also, perhaps the most controversial. Infamous around the world due to his repeated and almost incomprehensible biting habits, Suarez completes a trio of world class South American strikers alongside Lionel Messi and Neymar. Unfortunately, in making those transfers, Barcelona has put themselves into a position where they will not be allowed to make any further transfers for a year. There are all kinds of comments to make here about Suarez, biting, money and jerky...but come on...Hi-Country doesn't deserve to be tarnished by association with Suarez.

Happy Trails: 8-5

The field has been cut again so let's bid adieu to four more teams the only way we know how: dumb jokes and self-important blather!

8. Tot Zien, Belgium
Why They Lost: The Belgiums quite simply ran out of extra skin on their teeth. Squeaking past Algeria, Russia and South Korea, led to squeaking past the US, until running out of room against Argentina.
What We'll Miss: The brief glimpses of just how good Belgium can be courtesy of Eden Hazard, Romelu Lukaku and Vincent Kompany.

7. Au Revoir, France
Why They Lost: Les Blus ran out of offense after their 6 goal slugfest against Switzerland, squeaking a goal against Ecuador and then needing a last second savior of Paul Pogba and a Nigerian own goal to get themselves into the quarters.
What We'll Miss: Those kits are absolutely gorgeous.

6. Tu Veo Luego, Colombia
Why They Lost: Los Cafeteros are good, and they were an unstoppable force when their fans overwhelmed all the also rans they battled against. But in Brazil, against Brazil and a screaming horde of Brazilian fans? It was just a little too much for them all.
What We'll Miss: Midfield miracles courtesy of James Rodriguez and Juan Cuadrado...maybe if Falcao was there...

5. Ciudate, Costa Rica
Why They Lost: Utter exhaustion. Navigating the hellscape of Uruguay, Italy, England, horrific calls against Greece and then Holland, they were simply out of gas--and the clairvoyant Louis van Gaal's keeper adjustment should not be missed either.
What We'll Miss: Cheering someone, anyone, not from Europe or South America; and day dreaming of a future when Costa Rica rules the futbol world.

3 On/3 Off: Round of 16

We've trimmed the field again, and gutting as it is to see the US go out again, there's some absolutely thrilling futbol to appreciate.

ON: Extra Time--5 Matches went to extra time and three ended there, all in thrilling fashion with glittering goals and tremendous excitement. When announcers say that these matches are "dripping with drama" they aren't just making things up.
OFF: Penalty Kicks--2 Matches did go to PKs (with Brazil and Costa Rica finally surviving), but neither one was terribly satisfying. It's a little like letting a home run derby decide a game that's gone 16 innings, or having a free throw shooting contest in lieu of a third overtime. We don't know how to end it but, we know there has to be something better than this.

ON: James Martinez--For whatever reason, I haven't been able to see every little bit of Colombia's play, but it's plainly obvious that he's in another class when it comes to the game of football. Brazil may well knock out the youthful Colombia from the world cup, but it's hard to imagine any player of any nation getting the better of Martinez.
OFF: Any Goalie With Minimal Job Security--Say you play goalkeeper for a strong team in the big leagues of the world. You probably feel pretty good about yourself, nice paycheck, minimal hours, must be nice. Sure you may let in the odd howler, but come on...it's not like there are a bunch of better options out there right? Maybe not...but maybe the tonnage of superlative performances in the last 16 should have you edgy: Kaylor Navas, Guillermo Ochoa, Vincent Enyema, (Montanan Hooligan BFF) Tim Howard...there's a plethora of strong keepers who showed up big time when their defenses are MIA, and maybe your management will keep you on and trust their money in defense...or maybe you should hit the practice fields.

ON: US Soccer Culture--20 years ago, I had to bug my dad endlessly until he turned to the US matches. Now I have to calm him down, and we're equally in agony as the games go on. 20 years ago, you'd be hard pressed to find another fan within 10 blocks. Now, we swarm all around the big screens in parks and bars and city squares. 20 years ago a draw was greeted with confusion, now it's greeted with fury at our specific failures. We've come so far, and are so excited, and while we may well move on from it for another four years--we'll all be back, riding a bandwagon maybe, but excited? Indubitably
OFF: Soccer Haters--I don't even know what to say to people like this anymore. There are still, somehow, stupefyingly, people (assuming blog trolls and radio announcers count as people) who poopoo and snidely snark on every aspect of the game. Someone wrote on a blog I whipped up for another website that he was upset yet another place had succumbed to the game. What do you say? "Sorry, we all like something you don't"?; "Sorry, you can't appreciate something that brings such joy to so many"?; "Have fun hanging out with your most prominent celebrity ally...Anne Coulter"?  "Shut the f*** up"? Hey...I like that one.

Waning Seconds: Groups C & D

Let's take a quick glimpse at exactly what must be done for teams to qualify, or, in the case of others not heading in to the last round of matches.

MORNING--
Costa Rica V.s. England
Coming into the cup if you had said that one of these teams would be qualified and the other would be mulling whether to prolong their vacation or head home, you'd have heard most Brits agree with you...but it's the Lions heading home and Los Ticos preparing for the next stage. Like Colombia, Costa Rica needs to decide how much to push versus how much to rest, luckily so does England.

Italy V.s. Uruguay
Here's a tantalizing match up. Both teams need points to get the second spot in the group (and could-- with a theoretically large enough margin of victory and a British win over Costa Rica--top the group themselves and avoid Colombia). Italy could be through with a draw but Uruguay won't just let that happen, and since Pirlo has been proficient at picking out strikers on long breaks, bank on the Azurri to let their rivals bring it on, in the hope of springing an attack right after.


AFTERNOON--

Colombia V.s. Japan

Los Cafeteros are already through, but have been in fantastic form, so their question is do they keep the momentum going and build up to the next round, or do they hold back and rest for the pressure to come? That decision will have a major effect on Japan who has been sloppy and floppy in their last three halves of football. They need a win to have any chance at all, and don't look close to getting it from a full strength Colombia.

Cote D'Ivoire V.s. Greece
Les Elephants are on the verge of finally breaking through, finally giving Didier Drogba the knockout round shot he's deserved for 8 years. A draw would be a start--though they can't stand to see a two goal margin in Japan's favor as that would knock them out regardless of their victory over the Samurai, so it's safer to go for victory again. The Greeks are somehow still clinging to life, though they need both a win over the far more organized and energetic Ivorians and a Colombian win/draw against Japan. That's a lofty order, and the only thing lofty about the Greeks at the moment is their age.

3 On/3 Off: Matches Twenty-One through Twenty-Three

It's been a week since the cup opener, and we're rapidly approaching make or break time for a squadron of teams. How they fare will depend largely on how they are feeling heading into their final match. With that said, let's look at who's up and who's down after Thursday.

ON: James Rodriguez--For all the wailing and gnashing of teeth about the absence of Radamel Falcao, James Rodriguez has been more than equal to the challenge of representing Colombia and representing them well. Twice Man-of-the-Match, capable of besting one of Europe's top defenses, and flying over the legendary Didier Drogba for another, he's the Visa card of Colombia--every where they wanna be.
OFF: Wilfried Bony--We've been backing Bonny Mr. Bony since last August, believing that he's the future of Ivorian striking. Instead it's been the Gervinho show (though, clearly he's earned it). A Bony threat against the Greeks would go a long way to pushing the Elephants into an energetic, enthusiastic squad worthy of the last 16.

ON: Luis Suarez--The dominant force in Uruguay's great run of results in recent years was back with a vengeance not seen since Die Hard movies were thrilling and not silly. A couple great runs, a couple more lucky bounces, and always, always a cold blooded finishing strike. It lifts up all Liverpool during the winter, and it just crushed all of Liverpool (as well as Blackpool, Hartepool and Richard Branson's Mansion Pool) this afternoon.
OFF: My smile--Watching him steal a goal from Ghana was dastardly. Hearing him be hailed for it as "a gutsy team play" was stupid. Seeing him feted and hailed as a genius sets my teeth on edge. I don't like to root against people, so Mr. Suarez, while you are undoubtedly talented, I do not like you, not one little bit.

ON: Giorgios Karagounis--The first half substitute came on when Greece was at their lowest ebb. Down to 10 men, having lost top striker Konstantinos Mitroglou to injury, the old salt Karagounis came through with serious defense on Japan's top talent Keisuke Honda. With Honda limited to free kicks, the Greeks stayed in the match all the way to their bloodless draw.
OFF: Japanese Finishing--Seriously Japan? Seriously? The Greeks were down to 10 men. Their defense was exposed hither and yon by Colombia, and while you're not as impressive as they are to not get anything for an entire hour worth of chance after chance against a backup keeper...you can only miss so many golden chances before you and your lead footed finishing get exposed.

Mini celebrated her first right prediction today...namely that England would be full of stress but rejuvenated by a couple strong runs down the park. Of course, she didn't say that rejuvenation would lead to a win...so let's call it good. How she fares tomorrow with Switzerland and France set to square off for the marbles of Group E, we shall see.

3 On/3 Off: Matches Five-Eight

Saturday was a wild and wonderful day of futbol, covering four matches across the mass of Brazil featuring past cup winners, favorites, dark horses, and supposed also rans. Rather than giving an On/Off award for each match, here were the big themes from the day.

ON: Young Defenders--Oscar Duarte and Pablo Armero each struck a marvelous goal, taking their relative inexperience and lack of mainstream exposure and tossing it out the window. Speed, pace and strength served them well, both in shutting down their opponent attacks and in adding a new dimension to their team's attack.
OFF: "Veteran" Defenders--For all the talk that you need a strong veteran presence in the back to ground your squad during the game's premier event, it sure didn't do much to help two of the most veteran lines in the Cup: Greece and Uruguay. The Greeks got picked apart, and the Uruguyans looked first creaky, and then increasingly cranky when they drew a raft of cards to make an even bigger hole than their two goal deficit.

ON: Myth Making of Legends--Running errands, and experiencing life with my wife, I did not let the matches consume my day. But ESPN certainly has their opinions about what happened: "Balotelli Beat England"; "Drogba Distracts Japan"; "Colombia Overcomes the Loss of Falcao" and "Suarez's Absence Leads to Shock Defeat". Basically, if you're a star, you're responsible for everything...good to know, eh?
OFF: Role Players Grabbing Headlines--As a result of the ma-star-bating media, anybody else looking for some credit can just keep right on looking...the attacks of Junior Diaz and Christian Gamboa for Costa Rica...nothing; Claudio Marchiso's first goal for the Azurri...nothing; the Ivorians youthful combo of Wilfried Bony and Gervinho...nothing. Well, that's what we're for I guess.

ON: Loving Futbol--People who actually watched the matches are obviously fans first and critics second, but it was amazing to see the burst of pure love on Twitter for the game: Joel Campbell is suddenly everyone's must have transfer target, Daniel Sturridge has runs that are something out of a smart phone game, we're all watching and ranting and cheering together. That's what we love.
OFF: Hating Referees--After a pretty bad first pair of matches, the referee bashing has (thankfully) taken a back seat to the players, plays, events and actions. The more invisible the men with the whistles get, the better for all of us.

It's Father's Day so stay tuned for a special post on how my father learned to love the game alongside his sons. And also--you know--watch the big matches of the day: Switzerland/Ecuador, France/Honduras, and a great capstone: Argentina/Bosnia. 

Starting XI: Ridiculously Specific Predictions!

The World Cup is about to start, and while we could easily review all kinds of facts, features and factoids from the last month worth of writing, let's look forward to exactly what we think will happen once the talk stops and the games start.

I. Group A: With all the hype and energy around the opening match, a potent Brazilian offense and intense crowd, Defender Dejan Lovren will make a badly timed tackle that gets an overly exuberant card and alters his playing style for the next match against Cameroon...the Indomitable Lions take advantage and use the win to knock out the Blazers and march on to the second round.

The unlucky goats of Holland

II. Group B: Strong though they are, a critical error in passing between Bruno Martins Indi and Stefan De Vrij opens the door for Chile to take a tie-breaking goal in the second half for Chile and send El Rojo through to the next round.

III. Group C: A late goal by unsung midfielder Abel Aguilar, makes no difference, as Colombia suffers a tough loss to Japan. But it does keep Colombia's goal differential positive and keeps Los Cafeteros moving on ahead of the Blue Samuri

IV. Group D: Uruguay's offense sputters in the face of a hobbled Luis Suarez, but worse still is the fact that keeper Fernando Muslera, develops a terrible habit of giving up equalizers shortly after La albiceleste grabs the lead. While he stymies Costa Rica after giving up an equalizer, the offense can't cut loose and grab the lead back. Last cup's dream team crashes out in a trio of draws.

Les Blus new favorites

V. Group E: Antoinne Griezman's fantastic play on the wing for France, leaves very few moaning about the absence of Franck Ribery, particularly as he helps Karim Benzema to a pair of braces in the first two matches, en route to a group topping performance.

VI. Group F: Carlos Quieroz has a magic touch at organizing defensive mischief, with complex alternating schemes that frustrate both Eden Dzeko and John Obi Mikel in a pair of stunning victories to put Team Melli through to the next round.

VII. Group G: US Media blows it's lid when the ageless Asamoah Gyan scores again to give Ghana ANOTHER win against the US, with Fox News even snidely suggesting that this is what happens when you hire a German to do an American's job--not that they care about soccer at all (until Fox has world cup broadcasting rights). The tune swings back when the Yanks stun Portugal with Jurgen being hailed as a genius and everything ends in a muted pfft when they drop the final match to Germany.

Lacen practices how to shake a spy

VIII. Group H: Medhi Lacen puts his name at the top of the KGB hit list, when he scores a 83rd minute equalizer to deny Russia an obvious win and boost South Korea in a quiet race for runner up.

IX. Round of 16: Pushed to Penalties by Colombia, a strong Italian side comes unglued when Andrea Pirlo pushes it over the bar, in echoes of Roberto Baggio 20 years before.

X. Quarter Finals: On the verge of a stunning upset, Belgium comes undone as the workload of Thibaut Courtois is unravelled in 5 minutes of sterling futbol from Lionel Messi...an 89th minute bit of impossible creation and a gut punching through ball to Gonzalo Higuin in stoppage time ends the Red Devils run.

Ending where we thought...
But what a ride

XI. Final Four: Aching and hobbled after a strong challenge in the semi from Benedikt Howdes, Neymar pulls a Ronaldo-esque flu story line into the finals. Like Ronaldo he isn't much help, but a stunning feed from Paulinho to Fred sets up the Cup winner over Spain.

There's our overly specific, outrageous and easily foiled predictions...but hey, it's fun to think about how it will all play out--especially when it doesn't.

Meet the Team: Colombia

At least they don't have a
furry farmer for kids to hug

Nickname: Los Cafeteros (or "The Coffee Growers) is a nice nod to the regional industry and a good sight better than "Los Cocaíneros"

Star: One of the slightly lesser known strikers of doom at this year's cup is still tremendously talented and certainly worth keeping an eye on. Radamel Falcao doesn't have the endorsement deals or international press scrum that Messers Rooney, Messi, Ronaldo or Balotelli do, but he has just as much of a nose for the net as anyone else. A knee injury hasn't kept him off initial lists of players, but may not let him shine as he had expected to.

Hip-Star: More important than the strikers in all of Colombia's play are the creators, and more important than the hottest young star in Colombian midfield (James Rodriguez) is his running mate and more forward moving mid Juan Guillermo Cuadrado. So...obviously he's the real star...assuming you aren't a sheep who just cheers for goals...obviously.

X-Factor: There are four players over 30 on the potential list of players for this year's cup, which means that age will matter--even if it's not in the way we usually think it will. Colombia's roster all has international experience and have been bound together by their coach and federation for a good while, but the flip side of youthful optimism is overconfidence; the flip of energy is panic. Colombia's young and will make mistakes...whether or not they can afford them is another matter.

They really captured the knee

Coach: José Pékerman is a rarity, a South American who is coaching a great team, but isn't coaching his own national squad. After a solid, though not spectacular run at the 2006 Cup with his home country of Argentina, he went off for more adventures and challenges. Colombia boasted the challenge of a decade long drought, and and adventurous squad. The results have been solid as Pékerman guided Colombia to one of the top 8 seeds in this year's cup.

History: It's been a long time coming for Colombia, sixteen years after their last trip they're coming back and in great form. Of course, this team is a far cry from their early 90s predecessors, particularly because no one can match either the flair nor the hair of their most capped player: Carlos Valderamma


Food: In the mood for a Colombian meal that you can cook faster than most of the Colombian team can run down the pitch? We recommend the local street food of choice: arepas emparedado  (or corn flour flatbread sandwich)--And hey, if we have a Merguez dog for Algeria, this looks like a great way to get our chorizo fix.

Fool: There have been strong signs of a cessation of hostilities between the government and rebel groups throughout the country's jungle based drug runners. But somewhere out there Victor Gonzalez Sierra of the Black Eagles is still serving his stereotypical shenanigans for goofy pundits like me.

Best Case: Falcao makes it all the way back, the defense shores up its question marks, and Colombia plays every bit as well as people expect, upending Brazil in the quarterfinals and getting all the way to the finals against Spain.

Worst Case: Falcao doesn't make it back, the defense cracks so much the midfield starts hopping around to avoid breaking their mothers' backs. And a faster Japan, fiercer Ivory Coast and funkier Greece send them crashing out.

My prediction: Good as Colombia is, I can definitely see them being surprised by the pace and passing acumen in a tougher group than you might expect. They can get through, but may have to rely on goal differential. But I still see them into the quarterfinals topping Italy after their first round faltering before falling to Spain.

Added Bonus! The biggest band in recent Colombian hip-hop history joins our Hip Hop World Cup. ChocoQuibTown with "Donde Vengo Yo"

Starting XI: February Transfer performance review

Back in September at the start of league play, I noted some of the most notable national team players who would try to parlay a strong league showing into a spot on their local World Cup squad. Halfway through the year, it seemed like a good idea to review performances and revise the list based on changes to whose in, whose out, and who just got moved.


I. Marteen Stekelenburg (GK--Netherlands/Fulham)
Holland qualified with ease, but Stekelenburg has been underwhelming to say the least for Fulham, which languishes at the very bottom of the table. Having ceded at least one goal in every single January match (37% of all shots faced), Stekelenburg is left splitting time with the slightly less renowned David Stockdale (conceding 35% of all shots faced). His spot with the national team seems sure, whether he's taking it easy during league play or due for a disaster is hard to say.

II. Pablo Armero (D--Colombia/West Ham)
[Replacing Fernando Amorebieta (Venezuela/Fulham)]

With Venezuela coming up short, we can turn our attention to the latest quasi-darkhorse darling of the World Cup: Colombia. Armero has been bouncing about in Italy and hasn't made many appearances lately for Los Cafeteros, but he pops up on our list because...well..it's hard to find great defenders swapping sides at this time of the year. Add to that some sterling performances in the Champions league (including a particularly fine shut out of Arsenal) and he may be a valuable asset off the bench in Brazil.

III. Dejan Lovren (D--Croatia/Southampton)

Lovren and Croatia have found a bit more attention after their initial lack of attention. One of the stalwarts of the Southampton defense has boosted the Saints to the top half of the league and a top 5 defense in the Premiership (with a Man of the Match honor at Anfield for his trouble). Meanwhile, the Croats are destined to have a serious spotlight on them as they kickoff the whole affair against Brazil. But the dark cloud amongst all the silver linings is the ankle ligament damage that will put Lovren on the pine for two months, and seriously set back his prep for the Cup.

IV. Joseph Yobo (D--Norwich/Nigeria) 
[Replacing Razvan Rat (D--Romania/West Ham United)]

Razvan Rat left West Ham (creating space for the aforementioned Armero, and on our roster it leaves room for the grand old man of Nigerian football: Joseph Yobo. With 95 caps, Yobo is the most capped Super Eagle of all time, and as the African side prepares to take on a pretty wide-open group (Argentina's likely but the battle between Bosnia/Iran/Nigeria could go almost any direction you please), his veteran leadership would be a plus. With only two caps to his name this season, more playing time will be vital to even book him a seat on the flight over.


V. Paulinhio (MF--Brazil/Tottenham)
As Paulinhio goes so go Spurs it seems. Playing most of his futbol in center defense, it's only natural that he's critical to the team's success or lack thereof. When he's rated 6.4 or better in the match rating scale: Tottenham has never lost. But when things go wrong (as in lopsided defeats against Manchester City and Liverpool)--he's in lousy form. Still, his power's been worth it for any self-respecting Spurs fan, and Brazil is in the same boat.

VI. Jesus Navas (MF--Spain/Manchester City)
On the right side of the pitch, Jesus Navas has been a bit less consistent than the defensively minded Paulinho. Though his highs are loftier (an utterly brilliant game while crushing Tottenham--and Paulinho), they are less consistent. Since a November burst of brilliance Navas has been more than adequate, but hardly the remarkable/transformational player some would hope for. A spot on the bench likely beckons--but since it's Spain, it's the rare person who wouldn't be bound for the pine.

VII. Emanuele Giaccherini (MF--Italy/Sunderland)
With their heads just slightly above water near the lower third of the league tables, the Black Cats are greatful for Giaccherini's good showings. He makes appearances all over the field, bouncing from the left side to the right, but never seeming fully comfortable in any of the spots. His form over the last two months has been terribly mundane to quasi-questionable, though it hasn't seemed to hinder Sunderland (who have lost just once in their last 9 matches). It's anybody's guess whether Giaccherini has done enough to merit more than a wary eye when Italy heads to Brazil next summer.

VIII. Jonas Guttierez (MF--Argentina/Norwich)
[Replacing Aleksander Tonev (MF--Bulgaria/Aston Villa)]

Playing alongside the veteran comeback kid Joseph Yobo in Norwich is the Argentinian comeback kid Jonas Guttierez. Although a little younger, Guttierez arguably has a bigger road to climb back from. Underused in Newcastle and blocked by seemingly half the country in the midfield for Argentina, it will take an impressive run of form for him to break back into the conversation. On the other hand, holy cow is that man huge...his chest is as wide as my refigerator and filled with much more ham. I don't want to tell him what he can't do, do you?

IX. Wilfried Bony (F--Ivory Coast/Swansea)
The Welsh team with huge dreams and (seemingly) a transfer happy management style to match, should be very pleased with Wilfried, who tends to make the most of his time on the biggest stages. Notching top goals all over Manchester he's been integral to keeping the Swans alive in the FA Cup. It's a little unfortunate that his best efforts have been wasted in losing matches, but there's every reason to hope that he'll be a vital part in keeping Swansea alive and urging Ivory Coast over the group stage hump come Jne.


X. Kostas Mitroglou (F-Greece/Fulham)
[Replacing Stefan Jovetic (F--Montenegro/Manchester City)]
While most of the players added to our little starting 11 here are of the "comeback" or "washed-up" or "who the hell knows" variety. Kostas Mitroglou is a sure thing. The dynamic Greek forward was a boss at Olympiakos. He was a boss in getting Hellas into the cup. And now he's off to Craven Cottage to slice up defenses alongside fellow transfer add Clint Dempsey. Given that the Greeks are best known for their defense (and crippling national debt debacle), his emergence as a strong attacking option is one of the biggest story lines to watch for one of the European darkhorses. That said, the Premiership is a slightly loftier challenge than the Greek first division...so here's hoping Kostas is up to the challenge.


XI. Andre Schurrle (F--Germany/Chelsea)
We wrote back in September that Schurrle is realistically shooting for a spot off the German bench. So it's somewhat appropriate that he's maintaining a spot off the Chelsea bench this season. He's made the most of a few big chances (including a great game against Stoke...which Chelsea lost) but has had to adjust to being moved back into Midfield. A little bit of flexibility never hurt Germany before (particularly in soccer and race relations), but there's still a bit to be proved before he's Die Mannschafft's favorite son again.