Shooting From the Hip: The Western Hemisphere (CONCAF/CONMEBOL)

With this summer's confederation cups wrapped up, International competition is about ready to refocus on qualification for the 2018 World Cup. Most people won't pay much attention to these matches for another two years...but those people aren't crazy Montanans (thankfully, or I'd have no niche market at all).

Since the qualifying draws were held two weeks ago in Russia, I've been positively deliberate in creating these predictions (oh, who am I kidding, I made the predictions on the day and only just took the time to write it).

We'll start our predictions in the Western Hemisphere with predictions for rounds three and four of CONCACAF (which will be wrapped up next year) and the single round of CONMEBOL (which won't end until the fall of 2017).

CONCACAF ROUND 3

August 31st-September 15 2015

Matches:

Curacao V. El Salvador

Canada V. Belize

Grenada V. Haiti

Jamaica V. Nicaragua

St. Vincent and the Grenadines V. Aruba

Antigua and Barbuda V. Guatemala

The Favorites:

In CONCACAF the safest way to predict things is to count on the higher ranked teams moving on, chalk talks in North America, with the lone possible exception at matches in Central America.  Haiti's recent form (including a game performance against the US and a draw against China--in China) has served them well enough to make them a heavy favorite over Grenada, and Jamaica's Gold Cup Silver Medal and Caribbean Cup victory certainly gives them momentum over Nicaragua. This draw also plays to those groups with Guatemala, El Salvador and Canada all facing minnows both of size and of history.

Some would say I cheer for McCaulay
and Belize because I like to mock Canada...
those people are right.

The Darkhorses: The most prolific scorer in recent CONCACAF qualifier history is Deon McCaulay who Minnesota fans may know best from a fourteen cap, three goal performance with the Atlanta Silverbacks last year. His 11 goals made him a co-golden boot winner from qualification alongside little known strikers Luis Suarez and Robin Van Persie. Some would point out that this is more a reflection of the paucity of CONCACAF defenses and the lack of a second option in Belize, but the truth is somewhat in between as McCaulay is indeed a force up top and a key difference maker for the Jaguars, even if it is about to set him up against a stout Canadian defense.

The only oddball match up is between underwhelming sides from St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Aruba where the "Vincy Heat" ceded 6 goals and needed away goals to pass Guyana and after a year off the field, Aruba came up goalless in two matches against Barbados, relying on Barbados disqualifying themselves to advance.

Qualifiers

El Salvador; Belize; Haiti; Jamaica; St. Vincent; Guatemala

CONCAF ROUND 4

November 2015-September 2016

Top Two Teams from Each Group Qualify for the Hexagon

GROUP A: Mexico, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize

Never gets old...unless you're the
Mexican FA

Favorites: Despite the run-of-the-mill (by team Mexico standards) coaching drama, selection drama and performance anxiety, El Tri is still a team to beat especially within CONCACAF. The days of Giovanni Dos Santos and Javier Hernandez as the heralds of a supposed "Golden Generation" have faded, but they still represent some of the youngest talent on a veteran Mexico squad. As ever, the only thing that can get in Mexico's way, is Mexico. 

Dark Horse: Though they are often the chosen whipping boys for beefier sides in North and South America, El Salvador boasts a young and growing squad that continues to cut its teeth in foreign leagues. My fellow Minnesotans may recognize Midfielders Dustin Corea (Edmonton), Richard Menjivar (Tampa Bay) and 24-year-old captain Andres Flores (New York Cosmos). "La Selecta" may be peaking at just the right time, particularly with a mishmash of a Honduras squad that has been erratic and best and dismal at worst since their qualification for last June's World Cup.

GROUP B: Costa Rica, Panama, Haiti, Jamaica

Favorite: Los Ticos set the world on fire with their quarterfinal appearance last summer, and nearly set themselves on fire to protest the match fixy unfortunate refereeing in their quarterfinal against Mexico. Truth be told the last three months have not been kind to Costa Rica, with scuffles against Panama, Colombia and Spain, and lackluster draws against Mexico, Jamaica and El Salvador.  Still, the talent and recent success of the team makes them the team to beat in Group B.

Dark Horse: It's a shame really, because I can talk myself into all three of the other squads cruising through qualification in Group C and having a better than average chance in Group A. While I've talked before about Jamaica's defense being its new found key to success (a 370 minute goalless stretch during the Gold Cup was instrumental in their silver medal), and though Haiti is an intriguing squad of international vagabonds (two play in NASL, two in India, and two in Cyprus), I think it's worth noting the perennially, unregarded Panama squad that earned its third place finish at the 2015 Gold Cup--and maybe even more thanks to the aforementioned idiotic questionable refereeing of any game Mexico played in. In Panama's last six confederation tournaments they've made the semis in five and they had the pole position for World Cup Qualifying in 2013 until a miraculous bicycle kick pushed Mexico on. Only one of those three teams will hit the Hexagon, and until proven otherwise I think it's Panama.

The Panamaian Version of Morten Andersen

GROUP C: USA, Trinidad and Tobago, St Vincent/Grenadines, Guatemala

Favorite: U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A! Seriously, who cares if we can't figure out a back line, create consistent service or find a second goal scoring option behind an aging Clint Dempsey, we're America dad blast it and we will win this group!! U-S-A!! U-S-A!! Klinsmann for Chancellor!!

Also, a Guatemala win is a win for
70s FA logos!

Dark Horse: Despite the Soca Warriors recent offensive outburst (built largely through veteran striker Kenwyne Jones) their swings in play (they lost to Curacao in May but won their Gold Cup group), make them an ideal target for an upset minded squad. Enter Guatemala (La Furia Azul) who have balanced veteran strikers with a young and energetic midfield many of whom play together at CSD Comunicaciones, the dominant force in the Guatemalan league. 

HEXAGON QUALIFIERS: Mexico, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama, USA, Guatemala

CONMEBOL

September 4th, 2015-October 10th 2017

South America does it simply: All ten teams play each other in a standard round-robin league style. The top four advance, fifth place takes on Oceania's best team (*HINT* IT'S NEW ZEALAND!) for a play-in (*HINT* THE SOUTH AMERICAN TEAM IS GOING TO SUCCEED!!)

Favorites: There's little point in rehashing how dominant Argentina has become, nor how quietly consistent Chile is and how ineffably promising Colombia appears. Those three squads, even with two years and 18 matches to play, look like easy qualifiers. 

Yes, Enner, I'm excited about your chances too!

Dark Horse: The far bigger drama is whether any team can snipe a spot from the aging giants of the South American game: Brazil and Uruguay. While Dunga's Brazil has been a Bizarro-World version of the Selacao that the world came to know and fear (and even the methodical branding machine that made Ronaldo's crew so ubiquitous), Uruguay has seen their recent success pull a quiet nucleus farther apart on the world stage making reunions and consistency difficult. The recent Copa America showed just how easily local minnows can outperform their higher profile neighbors, with Paraguay, Bolivia and Peru each offering a surprise. But CONMEBOL qualifying isn't a sprint, it's a marathon, and the only squad that looks equipped at that task (despite their own lackluster performance in Chile this summer) is Ecuador. With both big game experience and a habit of consistently seeking out tougher competition for the next generation to compete with, Los Amarillos have a solid chance to surprise, particularly if players like Jonathan Gonzalez and Carlos Gruezo see greater opportunities in the upper levels of foreign leagues to build their confidence with the corps of a national team based in country.

PREDICTED AUTO QUALIFIERS: Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Brazil

PLAY-OFF TEAM: Ecuador

Catching up the Cups: Caribbean Cup

When you have a job it's easy to lose track of the fun things in life: like minor international soccer tournaments.

So, as the new year kicks off, it seems only right to recognize some of the other tournaments in the world during 2014. Starting out with Caribbean Cup from November
ON: Jamaica's Reggae Boyz
Though they entered the cup ranked lower than everyone but Curacao (and the unranked minnows of Martinique and French Guyana), Jamaica was an all around force on their home turf at Montego Bay. They utterly demolished their rivals in group B and held the stronger Trinidad and Tobago side at bay for 120 minutes, before winning the cup in a shoot out. While Leeds United's Rodolph Austin won the MVP for his midfield work, it's hard to under state the effect of Andre Blake. The MLS top draft pick and former Husky goalkeeper shut down all comers after a 29th minute goal in the first match. That's 316 minutes of shut-out soccer and a job well done.

OFF: Trinidad and Tobago's Soca Warriors
Even thought they weren't the host, the Soca Warriors were the favorite, ranked 21 spots higher than anyone else in the tournament (Antigua/Barbuda according to FIFA), and 64 spots better than their rivals in the finals. And still they lost. They haven't won a trophy since 2001, and haven't made a dent in non-Caribbean Cup tournaments since the trip to Germany in 2006. I'm not sure what it's going to take for T'n'T to get back on the rise, but it's something other than this.

ON: Haiti's Youth Movement:
Les Grenadiers have a horde of talented youngsters (all under 28) populating the midfield, with the strongest players venturing far and wide to find the best careers, including Sony Norde (25) with Mohun Bagan (a dominant squad in India), and Jeff Louis (22) with Standard Liege in Belgium. While they were a little flat against Jamaica, the future's bright for Haiti.
OFF: Cuba's Old Guard
Relations were normalized shortly after the cup finished, but for the sake of Cuban futbol, the Castro's may want to keep beat downs from us Yanquis at arm's length. Since winning the 2012 event (on a scant 5 goals in 5 matches), the Cuban philosophy seems to have been: keep everything exactly the same (hey, it's worked for the economy for the last sixty...oh wait...never mind). Despite a couple of shellackings that saw them bounced from world cup qualifying, los Leones del Caribe keep trotting out 40 year old Odelin Molina in goal, and the similarly 30+ Jaime and Yoel Colome. I'm going to make a heretical request Cuba, get something new.

ON: The Ultimate Underdog--French Guyana
We're fans of underdogs in Montana, and it's hard to find a bigger one than French Guyana. How low is French Guyana in the pecking order of FIFA, you ask? Nowhere. They aren't even a member. How well did they do? 5th place, good enough to get them a crack at the Gold Cup playoff against Honduras in March. And given that Honduras just came back from a World Cup that may seem like along shot, but remember, Honduras played terribly and has generally been awful while dealing with the whole drug-war thing. Here's hoping French Guyana gets in and pulls a shock or two this July.

Jack Warner's "What Me Worry"? Look

OFF: Caribbean Officials
FIFA and "scandal" have slowly become synonymous, but it should be noted that more or less everybody involved in the caribbean football union had to resign over the alleged bribes paid by Mohammed Bin-Hammam in his ill-fated attempt to oust Sepp Blatter. (Included in the list the FA heads for Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, Jamaica, Guyana and the Bahamas, as part of 27 total warned, fined or reprimanded officials from 18 confederations). Does that have anything to do with the talented athletes? No...but I needed to mock someone, and my default position is to mock anyone linked to FIFA scandals.

Happy Trails #175-144

Some people sneak peeks at game scores between spreadsheets and meetings, I managed to find a way to sneak peeks at the results from World Cup qualifiers between activities and lessons. Heck, I tried to squeeze score updates into classroom conversation (it helps teaching world literature to kids from diverse backgrounds...all the more reason to say--and hey, since we've read about Sumeria let's check in on how their great, great, great (x10 to the 25th) grand kids are doing in world cup qualifying!).

But for now, let's just satisfy ourselves with digging into the nitty gritty of who fell flat, and why.

175 Where'd you go, Mauritius?
Why They Lost: Generally speaking, not playing the games at all doesn't help your chances. (Though being nicknamed the Dodos, an extinct bird probably didn't help any.) Mauritius became the third team to back out of the competition, due to lack of funds.
Who/What We'll Miss: Cheering for our favorite strikers from Mauritius' Pamplemousse FC (aka Grapefruit FC)

174 Ka Kite, Cook Islands
Why They Lost: They only have 24,000 citizens from which to draw a team (Helena could have a deeper bench)
Who/What We'll Miss: Food Network mistakingly airing games from Oceanic qualifiers.

Diamond Ott at Right

173 Tofa, American Samoa
Why They Lost: Despite having gotten schellacked by an international record score of 31-0 by Australia in April, American Samoa nearly got into Round Two of OFC qualifying. Needing a win against hosts Samoa in their final match they unfortunately lost 1-0 and went home in third place after notching their first four points EVER in World Cup Qualifying
Who/What We'll Miss: His last second near-equalizer almost made him a hero but really, just being named Diamond Ott makes you a winner in our books.



172 Mou Nofo A, Tonga
Why They Lost: Despite a win in their rivalry game against Cook Islands (known as the Battle for James Cook's Love) they couldn't come up with needed results against either American Samoa or Samoa.
Who/What We'll Miss: We have to assume the erstwhile "Friendly Islands" would have made a great host for various matches.

171: Ma'as salaama, Djibouti
Why They Lost: It sure looked like the Djibouti never stood a chance, getting whooped 4-0 on both legs of their home-and-away series with titans Namibia. So don't color us surprised.
Who/What We'll Miss: Let's be honest...north, south, east or west, "Djibouti" is about the most enjoyable name of a nation to say.

No luck for you
Kevin Betsy!

170: Orevwar, Seychelles
Why They Lost: Despite establishing themselves as the most dominant island nation in the Indian ocean, that's still a little like being the toughest kid in the sou-southeasterly corner of the sandbox, and they never stood a chance against the heavyweights in Kenya.
Who/What We'll Miss: It's a shame that after 14 years bouncing around the divisions of English football that Kevin Betsy's only been able to play a few games for the Seychelles, it's even more disappointing that he's done in World Cup qualifiers before he even got started.

169: Sala Kahle, Swaziland
Why They Lost: Perhaps the King's Shield was still riding high off a stunning win against Togo prior to the 2010 World Cup, but they looked totally over matched losing 8-2 aggregate to Congo DR.
Who/What We'll Miss: I had a grad school advisor who was tight with the King of Swaziland...so based on two degrees of separation I'm sorry they came up so short.

mmmm....sponge bread

168: Nabad geylo, Somalia
Why They Lost: Inexplicably, after a 0:0 draw in the first leg the Ocean Stars got pummeled by Ethiopia 5-0 in the second leg.
Who/What We'll Miss: Minneapolis is a haven for Somalian refugees, it would have been nice to eat some canjeero during the matches from Brazil.

167: Tchau, Sao Tome e Principe
Why They Lost: Like Somalia, Sao Tome e Principe followed up a strong draw with Congo in the first leg with a brutal 5-0 drubbing in the second match.
Who/What We'll Miss: If Sao Tome e Principe had qualified for the second round they would have proven a remarkable story; coming back after 8 years off from relevant matches to pull a stunner like that? Amazing. Of course, they lost....but if it HAD happened!

166: Namkwaheri, Comoros
Why They Lost: Losing the first leg 4-1 in Mozambique dug a hole that the Coelacanth's could not come back from.
Who/What We'll Miss: In addition to a young and growing team, it's a shame that we no longer have a team in the competition whose nickname is a prehistoric fish.

Afewerki's stunned into silence
by my brutal burn

165: Selamet, Eritrea
Why They Lost: After two years without participating in international competition, the Eritreans might have been a little under prepared for the next round of competition.
Who/What We'll Miss: Another despotic tyrant's team is out of the picture, meaning one less figure to mock with the immunity of American internet anonymity. So let's get the joke out while we can: Isaias Afewerki impinges on freedom of the press so much he won't even let people iron their shirts! (KA ZING!!!)

164: Nabai, Guinea Bissau
Why They Lost: Despite being neck-and-neck with Togo through two legs of qualification, Guinea-Bissau fell a goal short because Emmanuel Adebayor loves crushing people's dreams.
Who/What We'll Miss: At 19, midfielder Zezinho is already a valuable part of Sporting's reserve squad. Maturing into a leader could make him and the Djurtus a future force.

163: N'agasaka, Burundi
Why They Lost: Only managing a 2-2 draw at home against fellow minnow Lesotho left the Swallows helpless to move on.
Who/What We'll Miss: The opportunity to keep running this video clip of Eddie Izzard's imagined cup of coffee with the president of Burundi (Pierre Nkurunziza)

162: Adieu, Chad
Why They Lost: The 2-1 loss at home gave Les Sao a lot to overcome in the second leg, and though they notched a win in Tanzania, the 1-0 score line had them head home on away goals.
Who/What We'll Miss: The chance to talk to the perpetually underrated Japhet "The Wizard" N'Doram.

161: Veloma, Madagascar
Why They Lost: After falling 2-0 in the oppressive oil baron dictatorship of Equitorial Guinea, and conceding another goal at home, Madagascar needed four second half goals to move ahead--they settled for 2 goals and a hard fought victory.
Who/What We'll Miss: Insinuating that they sold their national football soul to Dreamworks in association for positive references in the Madagascar cartoon series.

160: So long, US Virgin Islands
Why They Lost: Our "Well-I'll-Be-Damned" Minnow to Watch in CONCACAF's 2nd Round of qualifying had a problem keeping balls out of the back of their net scoring 2 and allowing 40 to finish last in their group.
Who/What We'll Miss: Finding more parallels between Tim Duncan and Peter Crouch.

159: See you later, Barbados

TRIDENT TEAM, ASSEMBLE!

Why They Lost: While their goal differential of -12 is a far cry from USVI's -38, they still lost all six matches.
Who/What We'll Miss: I still love this set of Barbadian superheroes I found on a random google search...seriously, where can I find these action figures?

158: Bon swe, Dominica
Why They Lost: Deprived of two matches against Bermuda in Group C, Dominica was the weakest of that lot failing to score a single goal (see, something to be proud of Barbados/USVI)
Who/What We'll Miss: The chance to talk to our most random club team affiliation so far--Midfielder Chad Bertrand, born Dominican, yet playing in Goa, India.

157: Catch you later, St. Lucia
Why They Lost: Though they did muster a draw against St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia came up empty in all their other matches
Who/What We'll Miss: They still dance quadrilles for fun down there! It's like Jane Austen in a tropical climate!

156: Time to cash in, Cayman Islands
Why They Lost: The "Shell Corporations" round out our bottom five of CONCACAF because they, like their fellow cellar dwellars couldn't do much offensively or defensively (notice a theme coaches?)
Who/What We'll Miss: Tax evasion jokes

It's not like England
would try him again anyway

155: Gotta go, Grenada
Why They Lost: While Grenada has players among top flight leagues in the US and England, most are at/or near their 30 year old season, making them a little old to keep up with younger fresher teams.
Who/What We'll Miss: They are known as "The Spice Boys" which makes the chance of buying David Beckham's nationality before 2014 all the more tempting.

154: Fare thee well, St. Vincent/Grenadines
Why They Lost: Just a step ahead of Grenada, come the Grenadines who can thank their spot to an extra draw against Belize...of course it didn't help them win the group...but isn't beating Grenada more important? (No? Oh, right...no)
Who/What We'll Miss: Yet another cool nickname for a team: "Vincy Heat"...you can almost hear LeBron James switching teams again...

153: Adios, Nicaragua
Why They Lost: Handily beat Dominica both times they played but couldn't muster much against Panama losing both of those. Clearly they should have tried to play Dominica four times...that's just bad planning.
Who/What We'll Miss: The US Men's team could have had guinea pigs, iguanas, armadillos and boas in local restaurants! Frownie face for the foodies :(

152: Doei, Suriname
Why They Lost: Despite two solid wins, Suriname allowed 11 goals and scored just 5, leaving a clear gap between themselves and the leading teams in their group.
Who/What We'll Miss: We'd say goalkeeper Ronny Aloema, but as the goal difference shows he missed enough things for all of us (Sorry, Ronny...that might have been mean...)

151: See ya, St Kitts & Nevis
Why They Lost: If any team needed to hear the Mortal Kombat "FINISH HIM", it was St. Kitts & Nevis, 1 win and 4 draws left them with just 7 points. Switching just two of those results to wins would have left them top of the table.
Who/What We'll Miss: Atiba Harris--stealthy winger and all-around MLS gun-for-hire.

150: Best wishes, Belize
Why They Lost: Belize lost when it mattered most, giving Guatemala an easy route to round 2 with 3-1 and 2-1 defeats
Who/What We'll Miss: The general blood feud between Belize (formerly British Honduras) and Honduras (formerly Regular Honduras)

149: Ayo, Curacao
Why They Lost: While they scored 15 times only just eked out a positive goal differential (playing USVI might have helped with that though)
Who/What We'll Miss: Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands knighting 9/10ths of the team...she knights pretty much everybody after all (heck, Sidney Ponson got knighted!)

I seek the futbol grail

148: Hasta la juego, Dominican Republic
Why They Lost: In all likelihood, the Dominican winter league probably had most players distracted.
Who/What We'll Miss: The Quisqueyanos have my favorite federation logo of this set of Happy Trails teams--I'm not sure why the ball is in some sort of chalice-type thing, but I like the classiness.

147: Hasta la bye bye, Puerto Rico
Why They Lost: It's very simple--if Ivan Rodriguez isn't blocking the plate or goal or whatever, Puerto Rico is not as strong as they could be.
Who/What We'll Miss: The opportunity to settle the whole Puerto Rican statehood issue by a game of football...not unlike the plot to the classic made for tv film FUTURESPORT!

146: Bye bye, Bermuda
Why They Lost: In the nip-tuck race to win Group B, Bermuda's draw to Guyana (on home turf) was the difference between finishing three points back and being on top of the group.
Who/What We'll Miss: As the last island left from that old Kokomo song, our last chance to sing chillaxed Beach Boys tunes is out the window.

145: Happy trails, Trinidad andTabago
Why They Lost: Honestly, your guess is as good as mine, T and T had a +7 goal differential, and a great start to their campaign. But the wheels came off the wagon in the final month dropping two matches to Bermuda and Guyana to open the door for Golden Jaguars to vault into the next round
Who/What We'll Miss: Stern John's swan song goes silent and the Soca Warriors last chance to relieve their glory days in Germany.

144: Au revoir, Haiti
Why They Lost: A mid-campaign swoon left Haiti needing two big results against Antigua & Barbuda to move on, while the 2-1 victory at home helped, losing 1-0 in St. John's left them one point short of the next round.
Who/What We'll Miss: Cheering on the rebuilding of Haitian pride through futbol would have made for a tremendous feel-good story, but with a scad of young talent coming into clubs in the US, UK and France, we won't miss Les Grenadires for long

Oh...that's why 11.11.11. matters!

So, admittedly, I'm a little behind in posts (and if you think this blog's bad, you should see my other ones), but I thought I ought to post before tomorrow in advance of a major day in World Cup qualifying.

Apparently the powers that be in FIFA decided they ought to schedule matches on every continent on this most auspicious of palindromy days.  So, there's a whole mess of soccer going on tomorrow: here now, the matches we're most excited to see on each continent:

South America:
Chile v.s. Uruguay; It's more than just the match up of two countries whose names sound like English language words--it's the rising power of South America (complete with greasy haired stars in the making), versus one of the continents perennial dark horses. So, senors, bring it on.


North America:
Antigua & Barbuda v.s. Haiti; So Haiti--despite all the financial, bureaucratic, and--you know--earthquake-y related things, was actually favored to win their group. Then along came underdogs Antigua & Barbuda...so if you think about it: we're guaranteed to see one adorable underdog vault into the next round...and see another underdog suffer humiliating defeat and broken dreams.

Asia:
Saudi Arabia v.s. Thailand; While I'm biased in favor of the Elephants and have made more than my share of jokes at the expense of the turmoil in Saudi Arabia, the match will be crucial to finding the second-place team in the group. Australia's guaranteed the top spot (barring some kind of freak team-wide spontaneous combustion), so this one will matter more than a little.


Africa:
Somalia v.s. Ethiopia; Here's the real barnburner, and while it's not the highest profile match and doesn't have any of the big name continental stars; as a Montanan who currently lives in Minnesota (with its high population of Ethiopians and Somalis) we can think of several people who really care how it turns out.

So whether you prefer rising powers, underdogs, high-stakes contests, or serious rivals there's something for you tomorrow. And if you prefer being gainfully employed and just looking up the scores during your coffee/tea break...you can do that too.

Enjoy the games!

Analysis our Way

The next round of qualifying has kicked off, home-and-away matches that will set the Caribbean and Asia alight with furious competition. While these matches may turn into do or die affairs for the players and supporters, we have the liberty of remaining aloof, objective, and totally uninformed.

In that spirit here are our previews of the next round of Asian and North American qualifying rounds: group by group, with special insight from our fellow Hooligans--Edemame Pajyamas and Celestial Aly

Don't fight it...she always wins

AFC

Group A What a special group. You've got a plucky underdog in Iraq, a hulking Goliath in China, a cast of diverse, quirky characters from Singapore and a mysterious unknown in Jordan. Given all those story lines to make movies out of, you have to think that the powers that be in Hollywood would love to see the Iraqis come through with China...if only for the chance to make a sequel. I'm sure there's a part in there for Zoe Saldana (eager, interpid reporter, maybe?) and whatever Zoe Saldana wants, Zoe Saldana gets.

Group B While we've already discussed Lebanon's chances, it should be noted that South Korea's track record, top flight talent and willingness to set themselves on fire for victory make them the odds on favorite to win the group. Second place should be a toss up between Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates: since their nicknames are the white and the blue we fully expect that Parisian fashion designers will let us know which one is in and which is out this season.

Group C Kim Jong-Il's son--Kim Jong-Un--can firmly establish his power base if he oversees his team's ascendency to the next round of the World Cup. The best strategy to do that would be to kidnapped and indoctrinate the Japanese and Uzbeki players who visit Pyongyang for matches in the country. So if something that unlikely happens (and hey, it's North Korea, so it might!) then it'll be North Korea and Tajikistan (by default, natch.)

Group D Sure the Saudi's and the Aussies are the top teams in the group, sure they've got a bundle of World Cup appearances between them, sure they are the most likely teams to win the group...but I don't own one of their jerseys. Buoyed by my support Thailand should slip in to the next round in group two...if only because they risk incurring my wrath if they do not.

Group E A hard group to handicap. Iran has a dangerous attacking squad but might be past it's prime. Rising young powers Bahrain has made great strides recently in suppressing the opposition (through force if need be) and you should never underestimate Qatar's resources and determination to prove themselves. And hey! I just realized that my analysis of each nation's questionable governmental structures could also be applied to their football...how about that!

CONCACAF

Group A Just look at the Dominican's line-up. Manny Ramirez, Albert Pujols, evenan aging Pedro Martinez is better than anybody that Suriname, the Cayman Islands or El Salvador could scrounge up...oh, wait a second...I got confused about which sport I was writing about...uhh...let's just say El Salvador.

Now this is a line-up that could
get all the way to Brazil!

Group B There's not a lot of soccer power in Guyana or Bermuda, but Barbados could have a great chance...if they could pull the trident off of the flag and use it to impale the opposition. Other than that there's nobody to touch Trinidad or Tobago (and with their powers combined...well, they're not quite Captain Planet...but they're close)

Group C With the Bahamanians already picking up their ball and going home, there are only three teams left to fight. It will be the first group decided, the first one that sends someone on to the next round, so let's just go ahead and say the first team listed alphabetically wins, congratulations Dominica!!

Group D Canadian's are already excited about their chances to get through--and who could blame them? On top of their talent, Canadian fans are prone to throwing things on rinks and fields of every size and shape--it's doubtful that their only real challenge (St. Kitts & Nevis) are going to know what to do when octopi, hats or maple syrup rains down on them.

Hipster Zombies prefer their brains
at gastropubs with chipotle aioli

Group E Group E is brought to you by the letter G as Grenada, Guatemala and Grenadines(/St. Vincent). For that reason (and no other) Belize wins the group.

Group F I've written before about the US Virgin Islands having as much chance as anybody in a wildly unpredictable group. But, even with all their struggles, the smart money still has to be on Haiti. They gave us the modern form of Zombies, now they can unleash a 21st century strain of zombie (hipsters oversaturated on zombie memes)

CONCACAF's Minnow to Watch (Round 2)

We're a week away from the next World Cup Qualifier Match Day with action brewing in North America and Asia. Before those matches kick off we're going to try and introduce some of the unlikely squads still standing and offer our comprehensive, utterly illogical analyses of each qualifying group.

Let's start out by introducing the "Well I'll Be Damned" team in the North American 2nd Round: the US Virgin Islands (USVI for short).

How unlikely is the 2nd round berth for the "Dashing Eagles" of the USVI? Bear in mind that they only became a FIFA recognized team in 2000. Over the last decade the team's record was 1 Win, 6 Draws and 20 Losses. In June they neared a personal best in the World Rankings by getting to 193rd in the World. The area is known more for being a port for cruise ships than for having any football fortunes to speak of.

Then this happened:

After 2 wins over the British Virgin Islands and advancing on to the Second Round of the Cup competition, the USVI has leapt up to 149th in the World--in a dead heat with Madagascar. They've already gone farther than any USVI team ever has in the Cup...can the go even farther?

Honestly...Maybe. Top ranked Haiti has been in disarray of late (with good reason) and neither Antigua and Barbuda nor Curacao have a larger international legacy than the USVI does. Some of the local press have got high hopes for a third round tussle with the big bad U.S. of A, but that might be putting the cart before the horse--or in USVI terms, putting the sales before the conch shells--especially given the inexperience of the team.

Most players ply their trade in the amateur league that dots the three islands (St. Thomas, St. John and St. Croix), but a young squad has gotten better by incorporating college players into the mix including a Seton Hall Griffin, a Pitt Panther and Alberto Van Grup--a Virginia Tech Hokie. Unfortuantely, it's not clear yet whether the college boys will be able to squeeze Cup qualifiers into their course schedule...I mean, can you imagine selling that to a professor? "Yeah, I know that we have a mid-term but I have to fly to Curacao...to play soccer...please...". Not the most compelling excuse I've yet heard.

But the best player may be Reid Klopp who has made two appearances and scored two goals to boost the Dashing Eagles into the second round. He lives on the islands so no worries about his arrival, and hey...if the NBA's locked the USVI could always ask Tim Duncan to come home and use his height in a Peter Crouchian manner. (He's already got the Robot thing wired!)

But win lose or draw you've gotta root for the Dashing Eagles and the US Virgin Islands. If only because they play and pump themselves up like your local high school squad. (Seriously, hard to imagine snobby Frenchmen doing this)

So best of luck Dashing Eagles! Rise on!