NEW FEATURE: Starting XI

It's time for me to do something else new and different. In an effort to make sure there are some regular posts I'll try posting a list of 11 things that catch my attention or mean something special or just make me giggle. What better way to start out than with something that ties together two of my favorite sports passions: futbol and baseball.

I'll Buy This
(mwillis.com)

XI Reasons Being a Baseball Fan Makes it Easy to Be a Soccer Fan (and vice-versa)

I. Under the surface strategy: Don't get me wrong, a well placed 3 run homer or penalty kick is all well and good, but more often than not it's not what you see happening on the ball, it's what's happening away from it that matters. Did the outfielders really leave the left field line open for Joe Mauer? Did you see how Asamoah Gyan made that run to the back post? Totally drew the defenses attention away from Dede Ayew. There's always something more to see than what you see.

II. Minimal interruptions: The best games of baseball simply roll through, pitchers working quickly, catches made or missed, hits and walks building into rallies and sides swapping chances one after another. The same is true in soccer: passes and movements flowing seamlessly up and down the pitch for forty-five minutes at a time without a single commercial break. Sometimes there have to be bullpen bucket brigades, sometimes there's an obnoxious array of feigned injuries that eat up valuable time...but at their best the only thing that matters is playing the game.

III. Players pay their dues: Both baseball and soccer have baby-faced phenoms who soar into view out of nowhere and take the world by storm (your Mike Trouts and Neymars, for example). But even the young bucks have to work their way up to the top: through Clearwater and Round Rock  and Scranton until you get to Yankee Stadium or battling through Eindhoven and Valencia en route to London. But at the top levels of the game there are both phenoms and well seasoned vets who arrived at this stage through dedication and perseverance.

Cobb and Maradona would be best friends...after they killed each other

IV. Body types are no bar: Speaking of dedication and perseverance, you don't watch soccer or baseball with the sense that they are totally different than you. Take the top 5 baseball players of all time (by WAR [excluding Barry *Human Asterix* Bonds]: Ruth, Young, W. Johnson, Mays and Cobb). Their slightly taller than average (5'10" [Mays] to 6'2 [Johnson], and range from 170 pounds (Cobb) to 220 (Ruth), unlike the sky scraping NBA's top 5 (by PER: Jordan, James, O'Neal, Chamberlain and Robinson--all over 6'6") or the NFLs (by AVV: Favre, Rice, Manning, White and Lewis--all over 200 lbs, [minus Rice its 220]). Soccer players have a similar everyman quality about them--with the one exception that none of them had Ruth's hot dogs and beer diet--but world renowned names like Pele, Maradona, Johann Cruyff and Franz Beckenbauer are all under 6 feet. Helping you dream that just maybe you could do it too.

V. Whole new world of statistical analysis: While I've often been accused of being a numbers-averse, story heavy fan/writer, I absolutely appreciate well employed statistical analysis. And increasingly Soccer has started using advanced stats with serious foresight. Added into a vocabulary full of BABIP and VORP comes PS% (Pass Success %) and ADW (Aerial Duels Won). Heck, FIFA even sold naming rights to a statistic to Castrol! So as someone who appreciates their affectionate nerdery with a dash of numbers, it's an ideal situation.

VI. Long Season as an Asset: Part of the reason statistical analysis works so well in baseball and increasingly in soccer is the sheer size of the season, you can be confident that you're getting a good sample size with six months worth of games. Better still, you get to know players and story lines as they develop, and you also get a sense that every game counts because pennants are a badge of honor in baseball (and one of the only ways into the playoffs) and they are the whole kit and caboodle in futbol. While soccer does have a variety of in-season tournaments (an idea I floated on my own baseball blog), there's a great deal to savor in every game, no matter where you stand.

Admire the honesty

VII. Loyalty rewarded: Being a fan requires loyalty, sincerity and pride of purpose. It seems a little silly to non-fans that you care so much about a group of men you'll never meet, and yet you really come to feel like you live with and for the players you watch every day, cheering on their successes and screaming over their failures. And in the end there are players who want to be every bit as loyal to their fans and their adopted home as the fans are to them, which is why Jim Thome tears up in Minnesota, and why Mario Balotelli still wants to play for Italy, no matter what obscenities some people throw his way.

VIII. Front office strategy galore: Loyalty is great, but for many fans, winning is better. So I have to appreciate the cajoling, conniving and various intricacies of altering a roster to make your team better. It's not just Terry Ryan's trade talks, it's the waiver wire watching and the AAA call-ups. That's not an option in a lot of other sports, but it is in soccer. Twice a year ownership groups go on spending sprees that would make the worst shopaholics blanche. They scour the globe for the best talents and drop a dime or two to bring them aboard (50 M seems to be the going rate for the best scorers these days). But that's not all...there's a raft of players in youth development programs itching for a call-up and rigorous competition among players already on the team striving to unseat one another. What will happen and where and with whom? Half the fun is that the hot-stove season never really ends.

Pretty awesome
(Hurriyet Daily News)

IX. Female fans, not objects: With three boys and a boy-at-heart, my mother might seem to care about sports out of self defense, but she really worried about the hole in Delmon Young's swing, the Viking's doomed defensive schemes, Wolves' missed passes and, of course, offsides traps. But she rolls her eyes every time football and basketball cameras zoom in on bouncing/bouyant cheerleaders, and she brought me up to do the same. Look around a baseball stadium and you find no cheerleaders or spirit squads, just women in the stands bemoaning bad middle relief or celebrating good plate discipline. The same thing holds true on soccer terraces (possibly because women in the US play the game at an elite international level), where every well paced pass and deflected shot are cause for joy or alarm. I don't think cheerleaders are evil...but I know I'd rather be around women who know and love the game they're watching.

X. Low scoring: This might be even less American than saying, I feel weirded out having eye candy cheerleaders shoved in my face. I like low scoring contests. I like it when runs or goals come at a premium rather than in a bundle, because it encourages you to relish every opportunity you get. It also highlights that, though you may fail, persistence is it's own reward. 

XI. Sweet satisfaction in toppling the almighty: One of the things that goes hand-in-hand with low scoring affairs, is that anyone can be beaten at any time. The Yankees may spend more than the gross national product of Belize, but scrape together a few runs and they can be beaten. Manchester City may drop more hundred dollar bills than Montgomery Burns taking out the trash, but sneak a late goal and they too can be beaten. It feels great to be a Twins fan when the pin-stripers are scratching their heads in dismay, and equally great when Watford unseats City (or, on a global scale--when the plucky old stars and stripes shocks England/Spain or any one of a host of European Goliaths).

It's easy to love sports. And when you love these things, it's easy to share the love between two great games.

Drat you legal copyrights! I want to buy this!!
(mwillis.com)

I'm looking forward to visiting the birthplace of one great game, and to a great year of both games.

Happy Trails #119-92

Editors Note, rather than go back and fix ALL the numbers of ALL the Happy Trails posts, please note that while I started counting down from #207, I neglected to include two numbers who should be much higher--South Sudan (who is a FIFA Member but didn't exist when qualifying spots were drawn) and Mauritania who just slipped my mind. So we'll pick up our countdown of eliminated nations at 119.

The summer would be the ideal time to have a bunch of World Cup Qualifiers, and indeed, the last three weeks have seen action across the planet from Sydney, Australia to Sandy, Utah. But with all that exciting, amazing action, there's also a lot of disappointing, soul-crushing defeat.

So let's say farewell to those teams who saw their dreams die. And, in an effort to lessen the number of teams I have to write about when qualifying concludes in November, I'll include teams eliminated in regions that still have matches left. As part of my on going war against European-entitlement, I'll include UEFA teams first (since they've played the fewest rounds) and teams in their second or fourth rounds later on.


#119--Ciao, San Marino
Why They Lost: You mean besides the fact that they have a smaller population than Butte? Probably the fact that they have 1 win in 118 national team matches.
What We'll Miss: Europe's WIBD contender doesn't have a whole lot to hang their hat on...but they do have an Olympic Stadium! No...wait...it's just a high school stadium

#118--Farvel, Faroe Islands
Why They Lost: Largely because they are stuck playing Kazakhstan (2-0-0 all time against them) at the end of qualification, thereby denying them any chance to build momentum.
What We'll Miss: The opportunity to learn exactly how to type all the different accented o's in Fróði Benjaminsen or Hans Jørgensen

#117-- Tioraidh, Scotland
Why They Lost: To put it simply: Scottish football has fallen on hard times. Maybe I'm not cheering hard enough. Maybe there's too much upheaval and inconsistency in the management. Maybe the Tartan Army's gone too soft. Maybe none of the best athletes are going to football,  maybe they need a better training program, a better league. Or maybe we just all need to drink some more...yeah, that'll make it better.
What We'll Miss: Way back in the day, Scotland wore what they called "the Rosebury colors". Last worn 60 years ago, it's high time for a revival, don't you think?


#116 Fo Tuma Du, The Gambia
Why They Lost: Back to back three-nil defeats at the hands of Ivory Coast crushed their spirits and their goal differential. 
What We'll Miss: Brazil nuts are one of their major exports! Think of the tariff wars had they made the tournament and brought their Brazil nuts to Brazil...home of the nut itself!! (Still you can see three national team players: Sanna Nyassi, Abdoulie Mansally, and Mamdou Dansou ply their trade in the MLS)

#115 Lesali Sesihamba, Zimbabwe

The chicken would be a better Preisdent
than Robert Mugabe.

Why They Lost: It might be the chronically under experienced side (18 Caps is the most for anyone on the current national team roster). Or it might be because Egypt and Guinea are too strong a set of opponents. But I'm going to say it's because Robert Mugabe's a total knob who has driven his country into the depths of hyper-inflation, human rights abuses and despotic tyranny, lining his own pockets while citizens (including footballers) suffer. Yup. I blame Robert Mugabe. Why? (Because he's a tool and I have the freedom to say so...don't like it Bobby? Come and get me...psst, Morgan Transveri...then you can take power and hold free elections! It's fool proof!)
What We'll Miss: More Mugabe-bashing, plus the chance to analyze if Defender Felix Chindungwe's form will translate to his home team: Chicken Inn FC!

#114 Tsamayng Hantle Lesotho
Why They Lost: As we said in our profile of Lesotho there's not a whole lot of veteran presence to guide and support the young talents like Litsepe Marabe....also ceding 7 goals to Ghana really didn't help.
What We'll Miss: The "Well-I'll-Be-Darned" Minnow to watch for this round, the Crocodiles of Lesotho are yet another cinderella story gone awry. Then again...if a bunch of singing dancing mice helped Lesotho make the world cup, FIFA would probably investigate.

#113 M'asselema, Sudan

Saif Eldin Ali Maswai
Cocking an eyebrow at FIFA
rules like a boss

Why They Lost: In their second match, Sudan fielded Saif Eldin Ali Maswai and beat Zambia 2-0...however Mr. Ali-Maswai was ineligible to play (no idea why) so the result was reversed, Sudan sank to the bottom of the standings and hasn't risen again (equally intriguing, Zambia has a one point edge over Ghana--my adopted African home--and may eliminate the 2010 Quarterfinalists based on Sudan's misstake)
What We'll Miss: It would have been nice for the war-torn region of Africa to have a little joy on the pitch...but it would have made President/Chronic-Human-Rights-Abuser Omar Al-Bashir happy too...so...they can deal with the disappointment


#112 Adeus, Mozambique
Why They Lost: Os Mambas don't have quite as much of an international presence as their fellow fellow former colonies (Brazil and Angola), maybe midfielder Telhino can rouse his fellow U-25s into a stronger cohort
What We'll Miss: Crazy big scrabble points when using "Mozambique" (two 10 point letters and long enough to hit at least one double word score? SWEET)

#111 Murabeho, Rwanda
Why They Lost: Rwanda is split between two generations the old, experienced hands who've been localized players for the past decade or so, and the young up-and-comers who led the Wasps to the U-17 World Cup two years ago, and have been snatched up by clubs in Turkey, Belgium, France and England. This cup was likely preparation to pass off the torch to what may be a coming golden generation in Rwanda.
What We'll Miss: Seriously, one of the greatest most inspiring football stories in Africa in the last decade. Children of militia members and children of refugees playing alongside each other for their country. That's cool.

#110 Sai Watarana, Niger

Amadou Moutari

Why They Lost: The Menas were rather ineffective, scoring one goal in five matches. Their point totals are artificially inflated by an awarded victory over Gabon (3-0), take that away and they're -9.
What We'll Miss: A recent run of success in Nations' Cups makes Niger look like a rising talent, particularly midfielder Amadou Moutari, who at 19 is already on board with Le Mans in the French Ligue 1.

#109 Gue Ngozi, Central African Republic
Why They Lost: The Wild Beasts started out strong with a two-nil win over Botswana and then collapsed, dropping four straight matches to Ethiopia, South Africa and Botswana again.
What We'll Miss: Speaking of Le Mans and talented African athletes, the squad that nurtured Didier Drogba has two CAR players on their main squad: Hilaire Momi and Fernander Kassai...if you want a glimpse of Africa's talent...maybe we should just all watch Le Mans

#108 Kwaherini, Kenya
Why They Lost: For the Harambee Stars it was famine or moderately portioned meal. Throughout qualification they would draw or lose but never got a shot to win. Only once did they have the lead in a match (against the Nigerian Super Eagles), but taking the lead and keeping it were two different things. 
What We'll Miss: The Harambee spirit of Kenya is pretty much the soul of fair play and decency. Of course I don't think Spain's going to change their motto to "everyone for themselves"...so we'll just cheer fair play abstractly rather than specifically.

#107 Later, Liberia

Why They Lost: George Weah continues to stubbornly refuse attempts at a comeback. Come on, Georgie boy! You're just 46!

What We'll Miss: Awkward conversations between a triumphantly returning George Weah and political rival/Nobel prize winning president Ellen Johnson Sirleaf

#106 A bientot, Togo

Why They Lost: Emmanuel Adebayor is not George Weah. 
What We'll Miss: Imagining a band called Adebayor and the Pips.

Eat Your Heart out Expos

#105 Bo yi bo wa, Benin
Why They Lost: It's a good idea to stay loose and fresh between national team matches (hence Spain's dominance), but Benin only gets together when they have a qualifier to play. A 9 month lay-off between a draw with Rwanda and two tilts with Algeria might not have been the best idea.
What We'll Miss: The classy old school 70's federation logo that combines letters and ball into one cohesive whole: like the old Montreal Expos, only still in existence

I should be a coach...

#104 Enda Nawa, Angola
Why They Lost: Like the aforementioned Harambee Stars, the Sable Antelopes could not find the finishing stroke to triumph in matches, only to earn draws in them...maybe more time playing Mortal Kombat would help...
What We'll Miss: The end of Angola's golden generation that took them to the World Cup in Germany. 8 years on, most of the young guns are nearing retirement, and four years from now they DEFINITELY will be close to done.


#103 Nangalapo Nawa, Namibia
Why They Lost: The Namibians squandered their chance to play spoiler in group F. With big matches against Malawi and Nigeria these past two weeks they could only muster a pair of draws. Quite a shame
What We'll Miss: The surprisingly minimalist Namibian style.  The modest logo (a sun with a soccerball), the simple/honest slogan (Bringing People's Game to People), the nickname (Brave Warriors). Kind of a change of pace from all the other stuff out there.

Teodoro Obiang imprisons
dissidents...and his smile

#102 Magha, Equatorial Guinea
Why They Lost: Group B was a case of Tunisia and everybody else. The Nzalang Nacional couldn't put together much of anything away from the friendly confines Nueva Estadio de Malabo, and even there it was just one goal wins. 
What We'll Miss: Adding Teodoro Obiang to our list of dictators we like to make fun of....even though he's apparently an ally.


#101 Nain Dat, Sierra Leone
Why They Lost: The little known Kanye West Jinx, wherein any nation called out in a Kanye West song is doomed to 20 years of failure...
What We'll Miss: Hearing national team players swap stories of their club teams (the squad is flung from Kansas City to Tajikistand and from Sweden to Cyprus and Ghana to China).

#100 Tutaonana, Tanzania
Why They Lost: Not being able to play every match at home put a definite crimp in the Taifa Stars game plan (they won two matches at home and dropped every thing on the road)
What We'll Miss: Forward Mrishio Ngassa is easily the lion of the Tanzanian side. At just 24 he has 21 goals in 74 caps. Fingers crossed for his continued success.

#99 Tikala Milamu, Congo DR
Why They Lost: A three match goalless drought in this years qualifying matches has been a little disappointing for the Leopards whose three points helped but didn't give them a real shot at progression.
What We'll Miss: The chance to use world cup qualifiers as a means to effect a cease fire in a perpetually war torn area....oh and to bring up Mobutu Sese Seko...the most amusingly named dictator of all time.


#98 Khanbiafo, Mali
Why They Lost: Inability to defend home turf. Despite two big wins on the road in Rwanda and at home against Algeria, they could only eke out draws against bottom feeders Benin and Rwanda at home.
What We'll Miss: Arguably the best mix of experienced talent and young up-and-comers in this batch of eliminated teams. The recent national team debuts of four U-25 talents based in England, France and Italy bodes well (as does the nurturing forces of 30 year old talents in the same leagues)

Great outfit for Morocco's heat

#97 Lla yhennik, Morocco
Why They Lost: Remember when Morocco made 3 out of four world cups from '86 to '98...yeah, they do too...but to paraphrase Rick Pitino: "Mustapha Hadji isn't walking out here folks, Nourradine Naybet's not gonna walk through that door..."
What We'll Miss: Dropping the team nickname that seems at once epic and Ayn Randian "The Lions of Atlas"

#96 Ungesege, Guinea
Why They Lost: The National Elephants were head and shoulders above two other teams in their group. Controlling pretty much everything against Zimbabwe and managing points in both matches against Mozambique. But...well...Egypt dominated everyone, winning every one of their games. 
What We'll Miss: After 4 attempted/completed coups since 2008 it seemed like there might be some good news for Guinea this year...fingers cross we can talk about more positive results in future

#95 'Illa-liqaa, Lebanon

Ramez Dayoub...we were happy too
(Yahoo images)

Why They Lost: Terminally under-ranked, the mighty cedars of Lebanon soldiered their way through qualifying across Asia, from Bangladesh through Kuwait and UAE and into the last stage of qualifying. And while a 3-0 blemish against South Korea marred an otherwise strong first half of the campaign (that took them primarily on the road) losing to Qatar, Uzbekistan and finally plummeting to a 4-0 to an Iranian team they had beaten 9 months before.
What We'll Miss: A truly great story that was our first Minnow-to-Watch to keep us watching.

#94 Fiiman Illaah, Iraq
Why They Lost: It was likely a little much to ask the Lions of Mesopotamia to beat Japan and Australia, but initial draws with Jordan and Oman held a promising possibility, just beat them in your second legs and you would have the third spot sewn up. It worked against Jordan...not so much against Oman.
What We'll Miss: It might be nice to hear "O Victorious Baghdad" again...a nice tune you can dance to!

Always remains High, O Victorious Baghdad, (تضلي دايما فوق، منصورة يا بغداد)

And to see your eternal Glory, O Victorious Baghdad. (ونشوف عزج دوم، منصورة يا بغداد)

O Victorious Baghdad, O Victorious Baghdad, (منصورة يا بغداد، منصورة يا بغداد)

#93 Salaam, Qatar
Why They Lost: The Maroon were perpetually forced to play teams that were not Lebanon. If they could just keep playing the Cedars they would still be undefeated...ah well.
What We'll Miss: Not much, with Qatar due to host the World Cup in 9 years, we're well assured of many, many, MANY more jokes at their expense in the decade to come.

#92 Allah yisallimak, Oman
Why They Lost: The Red Warriors were in prime position, needing a draw, just a draw, in Jordan and they would have third place all to themselves. The first half fit the bill, until Ahmed Hayel Ibrahim spoiled the party in the 57th minute to give Jordan the win and end Oman's dream. 

What We'll Miss: Mocking international ruiner of a manager: Paul Le Guen...who will be the lucky team foiled by him next? Honduras? Austria? We're dying to know!

With that it's Happy Trails to all, with hopefully a few more posts between now and the next round of eliminated sucka-dogs in September.

In it...but win it? #2 Australia, South Korea, Iran

We're ready to continue our look at teams that have qualified for the 2014 World Cup, by analyzing their chances as quickly as possible, thereby removing all responsibility for doing things well.

Qualifier #3 Australia
Contender Credentials: The Socceroos have quietly become one of the most consistent teams in the Asian Football Confederation. Building off a trip to Germany in 2006 (their last year in the Oceania Confederation), they have now made three-straight World Cups. Furthermore, the power of local players has become increasingly apparent as long serving national team members continue plying their trade in the top divisions of Europe, and increasingly do so along side well regarded younger players (24 year olds [GK] Mitchell Langerak, [F] Robbie Kruse and [MF] Tom Rogic).

Pretender Problems: Though heavily favored to qualify, Australia was totally lack luster in the first several rounds of qualifying matches, mustering just 1 in in 6 tries (though they did earn points in all their others). It's hard to imagine a team threatening the best in the world when they struggle with Oman as much as the Aussies did. Add in that favored veterans like goalie Mark Schwarzer are nearing 40 and the power house looks more like the old age home.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: The Aussies were playing it cool in the early go, but now are a force to be reckoned with, and with familiar hands helping the newbies they shock the world en route to the semis, while the lousy Kiwis stay home.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Worse than their qualifying campaign, one rank outsider beats them like an old didjeridoo while New Zealand shockingly makes the knockout stages.
Prediction: A few stellar showings marred by inability to finish the job leaves them just outside of the knockout stage--3rd in their group.

Qualifier #4 Iran
Contender Credentials: Over the last two decades Iran has had a familiar pattern--qualify, fail to qualify, qualify, fail to qualify. Though even in their failures they often come heartbreakingly close. They head to the tournament next year with coaching golden(ish) boy Carlos Quieroz at the helm, a man who led South Africa and Portugal to the Mondiale before doing the same for Team Melli and is as doggedly loyal and supportive of Iran in general as your friendly neighborhood Imam. Under Quieroz they have perhaps the most fearsome defense in Asia, ceding just two goals in the last round of qualification.

Pretender Problems: Ceding two goals was nearly two goals too many as Iran was tied with Qatar for third place coming into the month, only a startling offensive outburst from Standard Leige's Reza Ghoochannejhad boosted them in (largely on the back of a 4-0 romp over Lebanon). Iran also has a habit of promoting players attuned to the local political philosophy rather than those who are really really good (hence Ali Daei's 100+ caps...though his 100+ goals also have something to do with that).

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Slotted in a group with decadent westerners (and Israel) Iran crushes them all; then they do the same through the knock out stages until decimating the U.S. 10-0 in the final [this fantasy brought to you directly from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's brain]
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Quieroz implodes (as he is want to do) the goals dry up and all the players start drinking, swearing and saying provocative things like: "hey, whatever people want to do is cool with me, live and let live I always say" [this nightmare brought to you directly from Ayatollah Khameni's brain]
Prediction: The defense is not as effective on the world stage as it is in Asia and a dearth of goals (another Quieroz trademark), Iran finishes bottom of their group. But the players remain good muslims, inshallah [this dose of reality brought to you by everyone not named Mahmoud Ahmadinejad/Ayatollah Khameni]


Qualifier #5 South Korea
Contender Credentials: The fourth and final member of Asia's elite four teams: South Korea may have been playing the game the longest (assuming you count chuk-guk, which you should...if only for the name). They have a World Cup streak that might just shame the rest of the continent, having been to every Mondiale since 1986 (That's 8 straight to 3 for Australia and 5 for bitter rivals: Japan). Finally they offer perhaps the best developed and organized talent nurturing program on the continent, with national team fixtures (like Park-ji Sung) gladly making way for younger talents (like Son Heung-Min) that all routinely play in the top flight of international competition.

Pretender Problems: Chuk-guk is not futbol, and players who qualified in 1986 will not be taking the field in Brazil next summer. And for a talented team, the Taeguk Warriors sure didn't look like one in their final matches, as (on their home soil mind you) they needed an own goal to get past Uzbekistan and lost 1-0 to Iran. An onslaught of goals in Takshent nearly put the Uzbeks through and sent South Korea to the dread play-in...a pretty mighty fall from grace for a team that was on top of the group heading into last week.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Fueled by dynamic young talent, South Korea plays their most fluid style of futbol reminding everyone why they are the top talent in Asia and top their fourth place finish in 2002 by a solid three spots.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: The far flung players in Europe are worn out when they have to trudge to Asia for training and thence to South America for competition, finishing with three losses...meanwhile Japan wins the tournament and taunts Korea with it across sea, while North Korea takes their failure as a sign of weakness and attacks.
Prediction: Some underperforming European side [*cou{HOLLAND}gh!*] comes apart in their group and the Warriors capitalize to make their second straight appearance in the round of 16.

Waning Seconds: ASIA UPDATE!

A few weeks ago we ran down how every Asian team still had a chance to qualify for the world cup.

Yeah...that's not so much the case any more.

So here now is a run down on how it can play out tomorrow as three more tickets are punched for Brazil and one serious squabble is set for September.

First Match

Yup...it's adorable

Australia plays Iraq in Sydney in the first game of the day. The Iraqis must be disappointed not to parlay recent AFC success into a World Cup bid, but they could always settle for ruining the Socceroos day.

A win for Australia sees them straight to Brazil, anything less and they have to stay up late to see what happens between Oman and Jordan

Group A Simulcast

The most thrilling part of qualification is playing right in the midst of another match that could just as easily determine your destiny. That's the situation for South Korea, Iran and Uzebekistan (Qatar too...but they were left in the dust on the last match day so a four way battle is out of the question).

South Korea's goal is simplest. Get a point at home against Iran and you're going down South America way. Having won all their home tilts so far this campaign it seems likely.

Jon Snow is rooting for Uzbekistan

If South Korea does win, Uzbekistan can make history by winning their own match and vaulting the White Wolves into their first ever World Cup. But if they draw or lose, they'll have to face the third place finisher in Group B for the chance to face the fifth place team in South America for a spot in Brazil.

And, then again, Iran can screw everything up (after all, it is Iran). A win and they're in. A Uzbekistan draw or loss, and they're in. But if Iran wins mightily (like they did against Lebanon) and Uzbekistan wins mightily, then South Korea crashes down to third place. OR, if Iran draws and Uzbekistan wins mightily, then they Ayatollah's favored 11 have to do the 5th-place-playoff.

And just in case entry to the most prestigious tournament on the planet isn't enough drama for you, now the Koreans and Iranians are jawing at each other about "poor treatment" "humiliation" and subtle hints at match fixing...I'm guessing that match will have a little extra juice to it.

Final Match

The real thrill of the day comes at the end of the day in Amman, Jordan, but it depends largely on what happens in Australia six-and-a-half hours earlier.

When even a little soccer blog
takes potshots at you...you should
be sad

The visiting Red Warriors of Oman could easily settle for a draw to solidify their spot in third place/the fifth place playoff (a new record for their nation), especially if Australia wins in which case they couldn't do better than third anyway. But if the Socceroos fall, the door opens for Oman and a victory would set an even better new record: World Cup qualification. (An Australia draw plus a seven goal victory of Jordan would also see them through...but come on, there's a better chance of Keanu Reeves winning a Tony award than there is of that happening.)

The home team will be desperate for a win, as they need all three points just to move in to third (an Australia loss plus a highly unlikely 8 goal swing in goal differential is the only way they've got to get in directly).

So there it is, six teams are set to battle for three sure thing spots and two awkward third-place will-they-or-won't-they playoffs.

In It...but Win It? #1 Brazil & Japan

It's time to a for a new feature here on the Montana Hooligans! We've spent much of the last two years chronicling the ups and downs of the qualifying process of all those teams major news outlets rarely talk about. Does ESPN care if Lebanon topped Pakistan? Does Rupert Murdoch's sport empire bother to tell you what Guyana's chances are? NOPE! But we do because...well...because we're nerds.

We'll fit in GREAT!!

Yet, in just about one year we'll be down to just 32 teams in Brazil, so perhaps we ought to take a little time to look at serious contenders as well. So when teams punch their tickets to the final round of competition, we'll celebrate their accomplishment and then give you rapid analysis of their chances to win the cup--long before we know who they'll actually face and who will actually be on their team.

You might be asking, why should you do that? Well, we offer this analysis, not because it will be accurate or even useful, but because it will be funny and fast. After all, any one can give you accurate analysis in a few months, but we're happy to give you inaccurate analysis as soon as we can. (And if that's not a pitch to add us to CNN's broadcast team, I don't know what is)

Qualifier #1: Brazil

Contender Credentials: Start with the one of their many nicknames: Pentacampeão or "Five Time Champions". Brazil churns out championship calibre squads and players like the Disney Channel churns out future child-star rehabbers. Their joga bonito style of play is often imitated but never duplicated giving rise to the popular Brazilian saying: "futbol was invented in England and perfected by Brazil". And as host nation they get the regular home-field advantage that comes each World Cup, as teams out perform their expectations.

Pretender Problems: Between former coach Mano Menezes fielding young, untested squads that struggled at times, and recent rehire Luiz Filipe Scolari struggling even more in the run-up to the Confederations Cup, this is not your pappy's Seleção. They've fallen to 22nd in the FIFA world rankings, their lowest ranking...ever. They have now slipped behind Ecuador, Switzerland and Bosnia/Herzegovina, leaving them just one step ahead of Mali. How a team like that wins the World Cup? I do not know

Pie-In-The-Sky Scenario: The salubrious effects of playing at home rejuvenate Brazil and they steamroll every opponent enroute to their sixth championship
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Without clear focus in the attack, and with the pressure of their home fans around them at every turn, they crumble in a Round-of-Sixteen game for their worst performance in 24 years.
Our Ridiculously Early Prediction: A little home-cooking helps, but can't overcome natural deficits Semi-Finalists

Qualifier #2: Japan

Contender Credentials: Japanese football is clearly on the rise. Its best domestic players are battled over with the same passion you hear about around elite African or Latin American prospects (Shinji Kagawa of Man United to name but one). Manager Alberto Zaccheroni has crafted the best winning percentage of any Japanese manager since Hans Ooft nearly twenty years ago. Add to that a fourth place finish at last year's Olympics, a spot at the Confederation's Cup this month and an impressive march to qualification and you've got a hot squad.

Pretender Problems: Though they've had some success in recent cups, Zac Japan (so called in honor of its manager) has not yet won a game in the knock-out stages. And as well as they've played in qualifying, the best teams in recent years have played together or against each other far more than they play apart. The youngest players on the national team play in Japan, the more experienced players are scattered from England and Germany, to Russia, Belgium and Italy, making it more difficult to prepare as one cohesive unit.

Pie-In-The-Sky Scenario: Building off recent successes and spurred on by the largest Japanese population outside of Japan (1.8 million), the Blue Samurai make a shocking run to the finals!

Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Worn out by disparate club schedules and stuck in a difficult group, they continue their alternating pattern of stink-knockouts-stink-knockouts...with a decidedly stinky performance.

Our Ridiculously Early Prediction: There's too much talent to be ignored, but not enough to shock the world: Quarterfinalists

Waning Seconds: Asia

In just a little more than a week, the last matches of AFC qualifying will begin and we will start slotting our first, official, not-host-nation entrants into the World Cup. As we approach these crucial three weeks worth of games, it's worth noting that every team could still work their way into the cup. And so we present (from most likely to least likely) the scenarios for who will qualify from the AFC

Already Looking At Airfares

Japan (Remaining Matches (6/4--v. Australia; 6/11--@Iraq)

They Qualify If: They get 1 point from either remaining match

They Go to a Play-off If: They lose both matches and Jordan & Iraq win all remaining

They Stay Home Next Summer If: A giant prehistoric lizard thing rises up from the Pacific and decimates Tokyo 

THAT WAY TO BAGGAGE CLAIM!

Confederation champions, top of their group, persistent qualifiers and all around dominant force of Asian football, Japan really is pretty good to go. It would take a pair of crippling losses to Australia and Iraq coupled with Jordan and Australia winning out in huge fashion to knock them down to the play-in games. (Since Jordan and Australia play eachother on June 11th, they'll have to do something pretty fancy in order to both win.) Realistically, if you love Japanese football, you can start booking plane tickets, pricing thongs, stocking up on sunscreen and taking Samba lessons because barring a total disaster, you're going to Brazil next summer.

A Game in Hand is Worth Two in the Bush...or Table Or Something

Right next to Japan in the pantheon of Asian football powers, South Korea and Australia are pretty solid bets for any World Cup now-a-days. And though neither are at the top of their qualifying tables, both have three games left to gain points and get into the final round of competition.

South Korea (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Lebanon; 6/11--v. Uzbekistan; 6/18--v. Iran])

They Qualify IF: They get a couple wins in their last matches

They go to Play-off IF: They get three points

They Stay Home Next Summer IF: Kim Jong Un gets an itchy trigger finger

All South Korea really needs is a point from each of their three final matches (@ Lebanon and home for Uzbekistan and Iran) and they're golden. Well...actually, all South Korea needs is a point from each of  their final three matches AND somebody to eliminate all the nukes in North Korea and they're golden. And hey, hit four points and you don't even need to worry about the continental play-off.

Australia (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Japan; 6/11--v. Jordan; 6/18--v. Iraq])
They Qualify IF: They meet expectations
They go to Play-off IF: They continue to underwhelm
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: The wheels fall off the wagon, the shrimp fall off the barbi, and the Fosters plant moves to Holland.

Things are slightly trickier for the Socceroos who have to start with Japan (in a definite struggle that might see them slip out of even third place). But their final two matches (at home versus Jordan [who can't win away from Amman] and Iraq [already beaten by Australia]) offer plenty of points to a merely competent Australian squad.

"Donnie, You're Out of Your Element!"

Unlike the first three teams I wrote about, Uzebekistan and Jordan would be big dance debutants should their current positions hold. But they have one less game to play than their more experienced rivals, and they have little control over what really happens.

Uzbekistan (Remaining Matches [6/11--@South Korea; 6/18 v. Qatar])

Do you recognize these men?

They Qualify IF: The young guns like Sanzhar Tursunov and Farhod Tojiyev pull out at least one big win.
They go to Play-off IF: The old timers like Server Djeparov and Timur Kapadze refuse to let a great start go wrong and get at least a point from each match.
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: All the players want to avoid awkward mispronunciations of their names on international television and they tank the last couple matches

Uzbekistan's youth program has been impressive of late and may make for a compelling dark horse in Brazil. But to get there they'll likely need at least three points to put themselves in the playoffs, and rather than banking on a win in Seoul on the 11th, they'll likely gear up for a more winnable match against Qatar in Tashkent on the 18th.

Jordan (Remaining Matches [6/11--@ Australia; 6/18--v.s. Oman
They Qualify IF: They finally pack their A-Game on the road and defend home turf (as usual)
They go to Play-off IF: They defend home but continue to scuffle on the road.
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They scuffle both home and away.

Meanwhile Jordan's Al-Nashama (The Chivalrous) have a more closely packed group with three teams behind them, all within two points of second place. Having failed to get a single point on the road in this group, Jordan has to head for Melbourne on the 11th, before closing out with Oman on the 18th. To be fair, the Socceroos have drawn both of their home ties this campaign, so a point in Melbourne isn't out of the question, but if The Chivalrous want to make King Abdullah proud, they definitely need the win in Amman (and then hope for a fair shot in the continental play-offs)

Literally...Everything to Play For

Iran (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Qatar; 6/11--v. Lebanon; 6/18--@ South Korea])
They Qualify IF: They want to live like heroes
They go to Play-off IF: They want to live
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They want to live like heroes of a revolution

Iran has a long and storied history in international football (like Japan, South Korea and Australia); they also have three games still to play (like South Korea and Australia), but they have a slightly more challenging task ahead of them. They're already 3 points back of South Korea, and need multiple results in their favor to pull ahead of Uzbekistan. They have to face the two underdog teams in Lebanon and Qatar whose whole campaigns hinge on beating Team Melli, before finishing IN South Korea.

Khameni prefers a 4-3-4

Then there's this: Iran's presidential election is scheduled for June 14th (between the Lebanon and South Korean matches). It will be the first election in Iran since the Arab Spring and the Green Revolution that threatened full scale rebellion during the last election (2009). Mahmoud Ahmadinijad will not be running. The Aytollah has blocked genuine reformers including former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani from candidacy. And the national team includes Masoud Shojaei and Captain Javad Nekounam who both suddenly "retired" after supporting the Green Revolution protestors publicly during their last qualifying campaign. Add to all of this the fact that qualifying for the World Cup is a welcome distraction from domestic troubles, but failing to qualify for the World Cup kind of, sort of, endangers really any ruling party in any country anywhere.

SO! If Iran beats Qatar and Lebanon, not only will they qualify for at least the continental play-offs, but the elections likely go off without a hitch, protecting players for another year or more and installing another hardline reformer who follows the will of the Ayatollahs. If Iran drops either or (inshallah) BOTH games, the populace (particularly young men with nothing better to do) will likely be dissatisfied, the elections are jeopardized and Shojaei and Nekounam (plus any other idealistic young athletes) have to face the awkward decision of whether they stand up with their fellow citizens and risk expulsion from the team [again] OR if they shut up and play out the string as their country roils from the inside out.

That's a little bit of pressure, wouldn't you say?

Clinging to the Cliff Face

I kind of want in on this party!

Oman (Remaining Matches [6/4--v.s. Iraq; 6/18--@Jordan])
They Qualify IF: They dominate their last two opponents and run up the goal differential
They go to Play-off IF: They just take care of business
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They decide they don't want to allow jabronis around the world to shout "Oh, man! Oman lost again!" and throw the last two matches

As we noted with Jordan, there are four teams bunched within 2 points of each other. And all that comes to a head when Iraq and Oman square off in Muscat on the 4th of June. A win for Oman and they can write their own ticket, they'll be just a point in Jordan away from a minimum 3rd place finish. 

Iraq (Remaining Matches [6/4--@Oman; 6/11--v.s. Japan; 6/18@Australia])
They Qualify IF: They rule and their opponents drool.
They go to Play-off IF: They do well and their opponents do slightly less well...
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They are average and their opponents are a little better than that.

Meanwhile, a win for Iraq puts the recent Asian title holders on a brutal final set of matches, at home versus Japan and in Australia. Best case scenario: Iraq beats Oman while Japan wraps up their qualifying with a win over Australia. Then Japan rests their stars allowing Iraq an easy three points in the second match, setting up a decisive final match against Australia (who pull a measly draw with Jordan in their second match), with momentum going all the way of the Lions of Mesopotamia. Worst case scenario: literally anything else happens.

Qatar (Remaining Matches [6/4--v. Iran; 6/18--@Uzbekistan])
They Qualify IF: They shock they world
They go to Play-off IF: They mildly surprise the world
They Stay Home Next Summer IF:  They totally underwhelm the world

And then there's Qatar the little nation that wants so badly to prove they aren't the corrupt ne'er-do-wells who swiped away the 2022 World Cup from other countries. Their chance to prove exactly that starts on the 4th in Doha where a win over Iran would go a long way to improving their odds (and ruining Iran's). Provided that Iran and Uzbekistan scuffle in their June 11th matches (against Lebanon and South Korea respectively) that sets the stage for Qatar to slip in if they win big in Uzbekistan on the 18th.

Slim To None

Lebanon (Remaining Matches [6/4--v.South Korea; 6/11--@Iran])
They Qualify Directly IF: They refuse to lose and other teams refuse to win
They go to Play-off IF: They refuse to lose and one team stubbornly meets expectations
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They accept their own limitations and find satisfaction in their accomplishments to this point.

We've been driving the Lebanon bandwagon for over a year and a half now. But there is only one path that can get our beloved Cedars into a qualifying scenario. They need to win their last two matches: against South Korea in Beirut and at Tehran and then hope that Qatar and Iran draw their own match (June 4th during the South Korea game) and lose/draw the rest of the way.

Any outright victory for either the Qatari or the Iranians and Lebanon would have to get a massive swing in goal differential, or a horrific plague of gout in the other countries...so, better win now.

Those are all the ways that Asian qualification could end. And while we would love to see Japan, Australia, South Korea, and the Uzbeks make it in (with Lebanon squeaking into the intercontinental playoffs) We have to admit, it's a tetchy possibility at best. 

One thing's for sure. Monday Morning Futbol is going to be a whole lot of fun for the next three weeks.

Happy Trails #123-121: Islands in the Stream

The first confederation to finish their qualification round has passed the post.

Oceania has, unsurprisingly, crowned New Zealand as their best hope to qualify for the World Cup. The Kiwis will be looking to make their second consecutive Cup, and after shocking Italy and nearly making the round of 16 last time around, they have a great opportunity again here. But first they'll have to beat the 4th place team in CONCACAF (currently that's Honduras, but Mexico's just a point back).

But there will be time to analyze the All-Whites later. This is the time we set aside to bid farewell to the teams whose dreams of glory are now gone (assuming they had dreams of glory to begin with). So join me as we pour out a Mai Tai for those we lost this round.

#123: See ya, Solomon Islands
Why they lost: The confederations' top underdog, underperformed after an opening win against Tahiti. Giving up 6 goals to New Zealand, and then 11 goals to New Caledonia over two matches will do that to you.

What we'll miss: The opportunity to keep talking about the Bonitos (the team mascot and a particularly rough kind of tuna fish) and this...the coolest federation logo in this group of Happy Trails participants

#122: Parahi, Tahiti
Why they lost: Chalk it up to over confidence. After a stunning OFC Confederations title (besting New Caledonia and never having to face New Zealand) Tahiti was riding high coming into the last round of OFC qualifications. But once they started playing away from the magical pitch at Honoria (in the Solomon Islands), things got shaky and Team Fenua, as they are known, were toast.

What we'll miss: The stirring story of how part-time footballers are competing against heavy weights like Spain and Uruguay...wait a second...they're going to the Confederations Cup this summer? Well, then we'll miss telling those stirring stories twice.

#121: Adieu, New Caledonia
Why they lost: The land of speech, land of sharing fell just short of one of the biggest shocks in 2014 qualifying. They were still alive in the contest (just three point behind New Zealand entering the last two matches), but they needed to get another victory of New Zealand--after pulling a stunning 2-0 victory last June--and a big goal differential victory of Solomon Islands, while Tahiti held the Kiwis to a draw or loss.

But New Zealand won against the Kagus and the dream died there. Still, New Caledonia may be a dark horse to watch in future qualifications

What we'll miss: Trying to explain what in the heck that national emblem is...oh and promising new comers Georges Gope-Fenepej and Caesar Lolohea.

CAF WIBD: Crocodile Tears

It's been a little while since our last journey down the "Well-I'll-be-darned" street, and while we will be wrapping up most of the qualifying in the next six months, there's still a chance to root for those tiniest of minnows.

We continue our tour of lesser known teams battling for a shot at Brazil 2014 in Africa, by taking a trip  to the tiny state of Lesotho, surrounded by South Africa, crouched in the bottom of their second round group, but still granted an opportunity that other countries don't have: to play the game with the world on the line. (So take that Bhutan and Vanuatu!)

I like her hat better...
Photo: Catholicforum.com

Lesotho (aka "The Crocodiles") started their campaign ranked #185 in the world (August 2011) presumably because the Will & Kate royal wedding had finally eradicated glow of King Lesthi III's royal wedding a decade before.  Yet the Crocodiles rolled on to round two by beating Burundi.

As a reward for their positive showing in the first round of qualifying Lesotho got lumped with a couple tough opponents for round 2, including Ghana (fresh from their shoulda-been-semis performance in South Africa), Zambia (hungry to prove themselves and gearing up for what would be their first African Cup of Nations title this winter) and Sudan (I wouldn't want to mess with Omar al-Basheer, would you?).

Sure enough they got thumped in the opener 7-0 by the Black Stars tying their national federation's record for worst. loss. ever.

Goal scorer Letsipe Marabe
(Courtesy www.mtnfootball.com)

Since then Basotho fans have been able to cheer their boys in blue & green much more. At home in Maseru they've drawn twice and even notched a much needed goal which lifted them past Sudan into third place.

Still, it might be early to ring the victory bells (or rather, since this is Lesotho the setelo-tolo/jaw harp), there's a long way to go. This is unchartered water for the crocodiles and if young gun Letsipe Marabe is the only guy to get a goal, there's not a whole lot of veteran leadership who can keep the young squad steady if Ghana runs up the score again (hint...they probably will...).

Still, as long as there is a blog like this there will be foolish hopefulness for the underdog. If the Crocodiles can get wins in their next/last three matches (two of which are away from home) they can shockingly, miraculously, eliminate both the continent's champion and their best performer from the past two world cups.

Impossible you say?!? Yeah, probably...but where's the fun in admitting defeat?

Waning Seconds: Oceania

As we enter the middle months of 2013, World Cup Qualifying is approaching its final throes. While we normally recount the results, honoring winners and losers after they matches have all gone final: we're happy to talk a little about the possibilities that are still afoot as individual confederations wrap up their qualifying campaigns.

Most will finish sometime in September or October, but already tiny little Oceania is approaching its' climactic weekend of matches. Where three teams will go home and the other...will also go home...until November when they have to go play someone in North/Central America.

There's really only one match up that will determine the victor of Oceania and that's the plucky New Zealand Kiwis (they who stymied the divas of Italy back in South Africa). However, in OFC qualifying New Zealand is practically a whale, but they're a whale being hunted by the Kagus of New Caledonia. (Okay, not really hunted...but the Kagu is almost flightless and the Kiwi is totally flightless so that's one feather in the New Caledonia cap...so to speak)

BEHOLD THE BATTLE OF THE BIRDS! (Kiwi on the left; Kagu on the right)

It's an uphill battle for New Caledonia, they trail the Kiwis by 3 points and a goal. So their best hope is to beat the Kiwis on Friday (ideally by more than a single goal) and then hope they earn an equal or better result in the Monday matches [the Kagus play cellar dwellers Tahiti, while the Kiwis face the Solomon Islands].

Georges Gope-Fenepej

Truth be told, New Caledonia doesn't have a whole lot of experience at this level of competition. The whiff of international prominence must be a heady aroma, and they have only 3 World Cups of experience to go off of. Still there is hope, including rising Caledonian star: Georges Gope-Fenepej (whose last name is real and not the result of accidentally smashing my hand against the keyboard). Gope-Fenepej, recently acquired by Ligue 1 debutante Troyes, has 14 goals in 15 matches that set him apart as a special player on the pitch.

Smeltz like teen spirit

Meanwhile, New Zealand is still basking in the glory of being the big kid on the playground of the South Pacific. A stirring showing in South Africa is a big help, but as the roster of their golden generation ages (leaders Shane Smeltz and Chris Killen are each 31), the Kiwis time at the top might be running out. And yet, there's no one who has come close to touching them in qualifying to this point (they easily dispatched New Caledonia 2-0 in their last meeting back in September. And with hefty wins against Tahiti and the Solomon Islands already in the bag, regardless of Friday's outcome, the qualifiers from 2010 will likely feel confident heading into their final matches again.

We'll have to wait until the weekend to see who walks away from the Oceanic qualifying to fight on (several months and millions of miles away). But whoever it is there will be a grateful endangered bird out there somewhere...

Happy Trails 129-124: Exit the Hexagon...

It's not quite like losing a bout in Ultimate Fighter, but the losers we discuss here might feel just as battered, bruised and beaten. Left in the lurch by grim misfortune, they have to head back to the drawing board and dream of four years from now when they might redeem themselves.

But enough about the Republican party, let's talk about the teams that bowed out of CONCACAF Qualifying in the penultimate group stage. (You know...five months ago when I meant to publish this but apparently didn't.) Failing to make the final hexagonal hurdle is no great shame (the U.S. flirted with that possibility up until their final match), but still that means no trip to Brazil, no fame and fortune, no Vanity Fair cover shoot, just quiet preparation for going to Russia...ugh.

So let's sound a solemn samba for the departed (before starting a joyous Livenka polka for their next chance!)

129: Goodbye Guyana
Why they lost: As we outlined in the WIBD edition for the second round, the Golden Jaguars simply don't have the experience or talent on the roster to make themselves a viable contender in North America.

What we'll miss: Other than sincere satisfaction of seeing a little ol' minnow elevate themselves to the level of a regional spoiler? Just saying the nickname "Golden Jaguars" as often as possible.

128: And we'll see you soon Antigua and Barbuda

Why they lost: Like Guyana, A & B got a single point out of six matches. Facing off against recent Cup qualifiers from Jamaica and the US probably wasn't a tremendous help either.

What we'll miss: There's a serious boom of Antiguans, Barbudans and Antinguan/Barbudans popping up on the rosters of English clubs: Nottingham Forrest, Oxford United, Reading, Motherwell and Wycombe. Plus it'd be cool to see a match in the glorious Cricket Castle of Sir Vivian Richards Stadium


127: Adios Cuba

Why they lost: After FIFA set Cuba up with a bye into round three, the "Lions of the Caribbean" acted much more like pussy cats than kings of the jungle (or tropical sea...or whatever). It didn't help that their players have a nasty habit of seeking asylum whenever they get a breathe of fresh air on foreign soil.

What we'll miss: Cuban pulled pork sandwhiches...oh wait! This is America, we can get those anytime!! (Seriously though...you can't go wrong with a good [or bad] Castro joke)


126: Hasta luego El Salvador

Why they lost: Despite a rather stellar legacy as a Central American soccer state, El Salvador couldn't get over the hump of the more recent continental darlings Costa Rica or true goliath Mexico

What we'll miss: The chance for a touching homage to Forward and international team lynchpin Rudis Corrales who suffered a stroke in April 2012 and would have made for a great angle on the up-and-coming Salvadorans.


125: Farewell/Adieu Canada

Proof that Cuba's better than Canda
at pork products.

Why they lost: Finishing just a point short of both Honduras and Panama, the Canucks have to be grimacing and the lost chance to get a win at home against Honduras (a result made all the more bitter by a subsequent 8-1 drumming in San Pedro Sula).

What we'll miss: Are you serious...there aren't enough jokes about the other countries in the world COMBINED to make up for the mockery we can make of Canada! Like this one: Hey Canada is that Bacon or are you just looking at Ham through Maple Syrup goggles? [crickets chirp]


124: Ciudata Guatemala

Why they lost: Two goals. Two gol' durn goals! That's all that stood between Guatemala and a berth in the next round. If they'd just given up two fewer goals, or scored two more (or split the dang difference for all I care). A 3-1 win at home versus Jamaica? A 3-2 loss against the US? And voila...problem solved!

What we'll miss: Fun times with the Guatemalan immigrant community here in Minnesota, plus the super avant-garde federation logo which win our Happy Trails logo contest for this round.

UEFA WIBD: If you're going to San Ma-rino...

It will be a rare day in the land of FIFA World Cup qualifiers when this Wednesday we see only 6 games on the docket. But, this kind of scheduling quirk is actually ideal for our now fairly regularly installments in the series chronicling the trials and tribulations of underdog teams.

"So...Europe?"

If you can't tell, I don't really look at Europe and see underdogs. Europe's where the power in FIFA lies (and will lie whenever old white man Sepp Blatter decides to cede power to slightly-less-old-white-man Michel Platini). Europe's where the biggest leagues are. Europe's where the biggest stars play their club football. Europe's won the last two world cups (with closest rival Brazil looking absolutely bored with trying to keep up). In Europe the question is not whether or not they should host the world cup, but WHO among them should host it.

But all that power is not equally spread among all European nations. Sure England, France, Holland and their fellow continental powers dominate practically every single award category and conversation about the sport, but those countries have to go through the qualifying process like anybody else. Two poor results and suddenly those Goliaths might go reeling. After all England, france and Holland have each missed a cup in the past two decades--so there's a chance (however mind-bogglingly miniscule) that a non-power could slip in via some choice upsets.

So, in that spirit, we're rooting for an avalanche of upsets to tilt the tables in favor of the tiny nation known as San Marino. Though the Sammarinese might boast of their millenium old sovereigncy or 400-year-old constitution, they have little to boast of on the pitch thanks to a record of 1 Win, 4 Draws, 119 losses.

Hint, Palazzi is the one not getting the ball...

To be fair, with only 32,000 people within its boundaries San Marino has fewer people than Butte, Montana; so perhaps if San Marino and Butte joined forces the team could be twice as good (and totally prepped for playing at high altitudes).


But more likely, the team known as La Serenissima ("The Serene") will be content to draw from their own local pool of semi-pro players in an effort to catch lightning in a bottle and inspire a new wave of talent. The team does boast two players in (the lowest rungs of) Italian football in 25 year old Defender Mirko Palazzi, and 23 year-old Forward Allesandro Bianchi.

While the team has (unsurprisingly) yet to score a goal in 3 qualifiers while (again, unsurprisingly) allowing 13, they can take solace in the fact that they are only 2 points behind Ukraine and still technically alive for the World Cup. And sure that road to Brazil will require several big wins to erase their goal deficit and perhaps a nuclear disaster that wipes England off the map, but maybe, just maybe this can become reality.

Dream on San Marino, Dream on.

OFC WIBD Solomon Islands

It's time for another edition of my occasionally recurring series, honoring the minnow to watch in the next round of qualifying...even if the qualifying has already started and I'm actually way behind in making these posts.

This time around, we're honoring the Solomon Islands the "Well I'll Be Darned" candidate from Oceania's OFC. That oft overlooked corner of the FIFA globe that consists of New Zealand and....everybody else.

And yet, everybody else has done alright of late. Heck, Tahiti managed to win the regional cup this summer to book their spot at the Confederations Cup next year in Brazil (where they will face Spain, Brazil and a host of other countries poised to beat them up and take their lunch money). So what does it take to come out of a pack of disrespected, underanalyzed nations as the most disrespected and the least analyzed?

Fear the Fish

Well consider that in all recent FIFA rankings the Bonitos have ranked fourth out of the four remaining OFC candidates, and that when the final round began they were 174th in the world, behind already eliminated Vanuatu, Samoa and Tonga.


But there's hope afoot for the team named after predatory tuna*! (*Yes there's a predatory tuna, so remember that the next time you open a can of cheap fish-type substance, you may be eating a ravenous beast!) With three points in the bag, and three matches left (starting tomorrow at New Caldonia). The Solomon Islands can still make a come back. First they need to win against New Cali, a team in only its third world cup campaign. Then they take on bottom feeding Tahiti (still basking in the glow of their imminent destruction in Brazil next summer). Wins in both of those matches could set up an all important final fight against the Kiwis IN the Solomons.

The one and only
Henry Fa'arodo
(footballzz.com)

Sure, the local press has relegated the national team to the back pages of the sports section. (The futsal team gets all the coverage...stupid futsal.) But that doesn't mean that the Solomon's don't have a shot, it just means that it will be even more surprising when they triumph!

What's more, with the well-capped and beautifully coiffed Henry Fa'arodo in midfield, the island nation's attack has plenty of promise whenever it heads down the pitch. And while Fa'arodo may be in the twilight of his international career he has certainly paved the way for a new generation to continue the Solomon's slow rise to regional prominence. Fa'arodo may still be the only Solomonder to make it to Australia's A-League, but others like Benjamin Totori and Nelson Kilifa have joined him overseas, or rather, over a sea. And with 20-year-old striker Gagame Feni starting his career in New Zealand, the next level may well be just around the corner for all of the Solomons.

We'll have to wait and see if the next level comes to them even sooner in the World Cup.

Literature + Futbol = Nerdery Personified

Okay, so I love football, I even call it football even though my fellow Americans prefer to call that thing where you throw/carry the ball with your hands "football". But I also love books, and I love combining the two whenever possible.

With another round of World Cup matches right around the corner I thought I'd break down the favorites in the nerdiest way possible: through the odds on favorites to win the Nobel Prize in Literature (according to ladbrokes betting house...which places bets on everything from intellectual achievement to whether or not anyone ever reads this post....oooh, 9 Zillion to 1...I LIKE THOSE ODDS!!)

Rather than look at everyone on the list I'll suggest that the top 10 favorites may well inspire their teams to victories in the near future. (Even though #3 Mo Yan of China and #10 Adonis of Syria can't inspire their local sides to Cup qualification...what with those teams already losing and everything)

Does he wanna talk about Japan's
chances against France or Brazil

Most of the top 10 writers can already claim to support powerful teams. Top of the list is Haruki Murakami, he of the wild and stylistically invigorating 1Q84...though the Tengu Warriors have friendlies against titans France and Brazil but don't play another cup qualifier until November, you've got to like their odds against Oman as they look to move on to the Mundial.

Similar good fortune may be in the offing for Ladbrokes' other Goliath writers: #4 Alice Munro (Canada v. Cuba); #6 Bob Dylan...yes that Bob Dylan... (USA V. Antigua & Barbuda) #7 Cees Noteboom (Netherlands v. Andorra).  Heck, even #5 Peter Nadas, has to feel pretty good as his Hungary takes on Estonia...come on Estonia, you call that a couplet?

#8 Ngugi wa Thiong'o won't get to push the Harambee Stars through a qualifier (they wait 'til March to play top of their table Nigeria)...still! Kenya does have a friendly against South Africa next week. And if Thiong'o's got the momentum his team might upend the most recent African winner, J.M. Coetzee.

Pop-Quiz: is this Albanian author Ismail Kadare,
or Albanian captain Lorik Cana...I really don't know

And who knows what to expect when #9 Ismail Kadare of Albania has his nation face off with Iceland. Seriously, I don't know about Ismail Kadare or any players on either of those teams...I'm stumped.

But perhaps the biggest upset has already been prognosticated by looking at the 2nd favorite in the Ladbrokes odds: Irish poet William Trevor. Does this mean that the Irish will spring an upset on Germany in Dublin this Friday? (Especially since the Germans don't have anybody on Ladbrokes list?) Probably not...but hey! If I can't make wild conjectures here, where can I make them? Put it down! Ireland over Gemrany this Friday.

Blame it on the Grey

Perhaps most importantly...Ladbrokes longest of longshots this year is Fifty Shades of Grey author EL James whose English heritage may destroy the Three Lions if she wins and thereby uses up all their momentum against San Marino...yes. I hereby proclaim that if EL James wins the Nobel Prize in Literature (against 500/1 odds), then San Marino should definitely take the win against England (they're currently 400/1 according to Ladbrokes).

GO SAN MARINO!!

CONCACAF WIBD (Rd. 3) Guyana

Continuing on with our series of underdogs and unlikely qualifiers in need of a little love and support, we look into our own North American backyard in search of a team with grit, gumption, guts and other things that start with G (gorillas, gogo dancers, gefilte fish?).In that spirit we offer our Well-I'll-Be-Darned, Minnow to Watch: Guyana.

WEAR YELLOW!! (Guyana Times International)

Though Cuba is the lowest ranked team remaining they were given free passage to this round of the competition (the Castro's know that cigars are the secret to every international organization's heart), and though Antigua and Barbuda have shared the distinction of being a bottom-ranked local team, the Golden Jaguars have been consistently lower ranked than the others and had to struggle through a group including former World Cup darlings: Trinidad &Tobago's Soca Warriors.

Strangely, press on the Golden Jaguars is somewhere between scant and nonexistent. Local press blocks their websites so I have no idea what they think of the squad, but I do know what a British tv show thought of them back in 2010.


In case you don't want to watch...it's not good. Losing to a regional British semi-pro team isn't promising, and though Guyana does boast some talented relatives in world football, including Dewayne DeRosario of Canada, but none of those top players opt for Guyanese kits. The most decorated player is actually 32 year old defender Leon Cort of Charlton (in England's top minor league). Mr. Cort has 4 whole caps.

And yet! Here's Guyana. One round away from the final stage of CONCACAF competition. Heck they practically dominated their last round of competition, clinching a berth in the next round with a stellar victory against Trinidad and Tobago at home (over to you local sports reporter)



Thanks local sports reporter! Now sure, Guyana's been dealt a tough hand having been slammed hard in their first games against Costa Rica and Mexico. And yes, they haven't gotten a point from a game since May 4th (against titans Guadeloupe), and they haven't scored a goal in FIFA matches since since last November (and the above shown game against T&T) but they do have one of the coolest named coaches in all of football: Jamaal Shabaaz.

Coach Shabaaz will be sure to do what he can with a team led by North American Soccer League up and comer Nick Millington, and the aforementioned veteran Leon Cort. Whether or not it's enough, they've bucked the odds by getting here in the first place. And for that we salute them!