Starting XI: New Faces, New Places

With the club season about to kick off in earnest (notably in the Barclay's premiership which is the easiest league for Motnanans and other Americans to watch) I wanted to take a minute to review another Starting XI. This month, 11 players who will be on new teams in the Premiership this season and who will be trying to use that transfer spot to set themselves up for glory on an even bigger stage at next year's World Cup. (And because I feel like it, we'll run it as a 3-4-3 line up.)

I. Marteen Stekelenburg (GK--Netherlands/Fulham)
Growing in to Edwin Van Der Saar's ginormous shoes is a bit of a tricky business, but Stekelenburg more than rose to the occasion in South Africa. Limiting world class opposition to four goals from the run of play over seven matches. After a long career with Ajax he had a pair of disappointing years with Roma (finishing 6th and 7th, while finishing middle of the table in Goals allowed). Coming to the Premiership, he'll hope for a stronger showing to set up a Dutch team that's very close to qualifying.

II. Fernando Amorebieta (D--Venezuela/Fulham)

Amorebieta is an unusual story. He nearly got a cap with La Furia Roja before joining his home land in Venezuela. With an impeccable sense of timing, he scored the lone goal in La Vinotino's first every qualifier win over L'Albiceleste [Argentina]. It could be a bit of a wrench going from Craven Cottage in London back and forth to South American qualifiers, and as a relatively inexperienced player he may not be asked to. But with Venezuela tied with Uruguay for fifth place, and matches coming up against the bottom three teams in the table could give them a great opportunity to try Fernando out before next summer--a summer he'd get to spend in Brazil if he's in form.

III. Dejan Lovren (D--Croatia/Southhampton)

Like Croatia itself, Lovren has been flying under the radar for a little while, particularly as his playing time has steaily decreased with Olympique Lyonnais (though he did see action in Europe). Meanwhile, the Croats have soared as high as third in the world and are guaranteed a spot in at least the playoffs (with Belgium cruising ahead of them, they may need it). Now with the Saints aspiring to stay clear of the relegation spots, Lovren's play ought to help steady a shaky defense.

IV. Razvan Rat (D--Romania/West Ham United)

Rat is the strongest stalwart in Romania's defense, and as the Tricolorii sit in third place of Group D, they're going to need some strong defense to have a shot at passing either Hungary or Holland. Luckily they'll be playing at home for 3 of their final 4 matches (and they'll be facing bottom feeders Turkey, Estonia and Andorra once each). If Rat can stand up to Premiership talent he'll easily stand up to those three countries.

V. Paulinhio (MF--Brazil/Tottenham)
Moving into the more high profile transfers, Paulinhio's squad is already booked into the World Cup (hosting it has its perks after all). With 17 caps and a stellar showing at this years Confederations Cup Paulinhio is pretty secure in his spot on the Finals squad...provided he avoids injury, and since he'll be playing for Tottenham and their accursed luck, that might take some doing.

VI. Jesus Navas (MF--Spain/Manchester City)
Speaking of Confederation Cup revelations (at least to the non-club-scene footie fan), Navas served as Spain's supersub during the tournament and was a instrumental in getting them into the finals (sure they got smoked by Brazil in the finals, but that's beside the point). Now with Man City, Navas has the chance to establish himself as a topflight midfielder in advance of La Furia Roja's title defense (assuming they can get in ahead of France)


VII. Emanuele Giaccherini (MF--Italy/Sunderland)
With Italy in good position to qualify ahead of Bulgaria in Group B, Giaccherini main goal will be to help the Black Cats stay in the first division (alongside fellow international additions Jozy Altidore [US] and David Molberg Kaarlson [Sweden]). As the only Confederations Cup cap winner to play outside of Italy, the more Giaccherini helps Sunderland, the more he helps himself stay in the starting line-up.

VIII. Aleksander Tonev (MF--Bulgaria/Aston Villa)

Bulgaria's fallen a long way since Hirsto Stoichkov's heroics saw them finish fourth in 1994, but they're back in contention this time around sitting at second in their group with four matches left to go. Tonev, who racked up a hat-trick against Malta earlier in qualifying, isn't yet a lock to be selected for the final squads, but shows a level of promise that other Bulgarian's haven't. If Tonev can help one group of Lions he'll be better positioned to help another. ('Cause they're both nicknamed the Lions, get it?)


IX. Wilfried Bony (F--Ivory Coast/Swansea)
Heir to the throne of Didier Drogba, Wilfried's move to the Welsh club puts him in position to match up with fellow Elephants strikers Aroune Kone (Everton) and Gervinho (Arsenal). Right now, Bony's young enough and inexperienced enough to rank as a fourth or fifth option up top (behind Kone, Gervinho, Solomon Kolou, and Drogba provided he's fit and has a pulse). Still, Bony's got three goals in qualifying and should have a shot at some action when Ivory Coast sets up its final qualifying home-and-away in October.

X. Stefan Jovetic (F--Montenegro/Manchester City)
Another addition to the Sky Blues (alongside Jesus Navas), Jovetic has a slightly more awkward position in the Premiership. Play well and he might be instrumental in this year's race for the title. Play well and he might well help Montenegro qualify for their first World Cup only 7 years after becoming an independent national side...of course, if that happens, he might leave England's national team on the outside looking in. (Keep an eye on the October 11th match at Wembley to see if he's a golden boy or a goat)


XI. Andre Schurrle (F--Germany/Chelsea)
Schurrle's youth and promise make him seem, for all the world, like the future of German striking. Of course the present of German striking is already pretty good (with Miroslav Klose, Lukas Podolski and Mario Gomez). Still, the chance to refine his skill in the best European League with one of the best European clubs gives Schurrle a great opportunity to position himself as a serious contender for a spot off the bench for a team that makes World Cup Semifinals with as much blase consistency as it makes loans to EU neighbors.

So there's the 11 men to keep an eye on as the premiership gets started this month. And with any luck, they'll be 11 to keep an eye on through next June as well.

Who's cheating now?

If there's one thing I love about FIFA it's how long they wait before announcing that someone has done something wrong.

No...wait...that bugs me.

Turns out that two CAF teams who thought they were set for the playoff rounds will be playing meaningful games when the final match day (September 7th) rolls around.

The hardest hit goes to Ethiopia which might be the best story of African qualifying so far. The Black Lions have been trying to qualify since November 2011, when they needed a play-in home-and-away with Somalia just to get to the group stage. Only two teams from the play-in games still have a chance to qualify.

While Ethiopia looked to have qualified at the end of June after a pair of victories over South Africa and Botswana, they now have only one victory?

Sometimes it's okay to watch
from the bench Minyahile

How you might ask?


Apparently, the Ethiopian team and head coach Sewnet Bishaw forgot the whole "two yellow cards requires a game suspension" rule, and nobody thought to remind them of it during the whole course of the playing the game. So Minyahile Teshome Beyene, we hope you enjoyed playing that day, because it's suddenly made group A competitive again.

Yes, now Botswana and South Africa are alive and in the hunt for the next round. Fortunately, Ethiopia still tops their group and since the Zebras and Bafana Bafana are playing each other next, the Black Lions just need a better result against bottom feeding C.A.R. and they'll be in to the next round.

Emilio scoffs at article 55

Meanwhile Equitorial Guinea forfeiting their recent win against Cape Verde doesn't mean much...to Equitorial Guinea. They were last before, they are last now. Emilo Nsue Lopez (he of the joint Equitorian/Spanish citizenship) and Equitorial Guinea violated article 55 paragraph 1 (the most important paragraph of all article 55), so what was a 2-1 loss, becomes a 3-0 loss.


Again, big woop for Equitorial Guinea, but somewhat of a big woop for Cape Verde who sees their goal differential go from plus 3 to plus 5. Still, since they play group leading Tunisia in September, it's still win or go home for the Blue Sharks. (And actually, since they're playing in Rades, Tunisia it will more likely be win, lose or draw AND go home).

So congrats to Cape Verde, Botswana and South Africa...your dreams live again. And tough luck to Ethiopia here's hoping your little faux pas doesn't cost you a trip to Brazil.

(please note that the happy trails post has been updated to reflect these changes)

Lessons from the Confederations Cup: 3 On/3 Off

Later today my wife and I will fly off for England and Scotland. My dreams of seeing a premier league match are not to be met (it's July after all) but I've got fingers crossed that we'll find some footy entertainment somewhere. Until we return, here's this post.

Inside of a year to go until the World Cup in Brazil, there are very few chances left to get any real sense of who can or will do well next June. And while it might still be way too early to make any kind of assumptions or conclusions about good, bad and i-between, it's also way to quiet this summer to ignore it.


So here's another in the oft-forgotten 3 On/3 Off series where we identify 3 positives and 3 less-than positives from a major tournament.

3 On

Neymar (2nd from R) That's my next haircut!
(cdn3.news.co.nz)

1. Neymar is every bit as good as advertised. The run up to this tournament was all about the youngster from Mogi das Cruces. Would he be the million dollar man Barcelona thought he was? Would he be another case of dynamic youngster out of his depth in international competition? Would he have an ugly hair cut? The answers, as we all know now, are yes, no and yes. His fluidity and inventive style of play clearly justify the faith of the millions in green and gold throughout Brazil, and even make me pause before I comment on the soggy tea cozy atop his head. With a more than competent ally up front in Fred and an increasingly confident set of backs shoring up the defense, Brazil is officially back.
2. Only fools doubt Spain. We're all a little desperate for some drama in international soccer, so the stories have begun: Spain is getting older. Spain is getting tired. Spain is too unsure of the next generation. Pbbt on all of that. Spain is every bit the well-oiled, soul-crushing machine they have ever been, and while there have been brief spurts of teams like Nigeria and Italy looking ominous in their own end, once La Furia Roja gets control in midfield it's all over but the crying. And even despite the final drubbing at the hands of the Selacao, they still have to be deemed favorites
3. Dilma Roussef and the Brazilian Government is very smart.  Here's a little lesson for all future cup hosts: if you spend billions of dollars on a bunch of fancy pants stadia built to sell Pepsi and Hyundai to the world and then ask average citizens to pay more for things like busses or schools, be prepared for citizens to get pissed. Better still, let them be pissed. Let the march. Let them demonstrate. Let them exercise their rights as citizens. And make absolutely sure that Pepsi and Hyundai execs ride the bus at least once or twice. That's the way to be a modern nation where disagreement does not equal destabilization (hint hint Egypt/Turkey)

3 Off

"Why do my teeth hurt? Could it be all that biting of opponents?"
(adammjohnston.wordpress.com via SBNation)

1. Luis Suarez is a jerk...maybe without a future. It really doesn't fail does it. Luis Suarez shows up on the pitch and the dander of anyone who roots for Ghana, or for Patrice Evra, or for just--you know--not biting people, gets their dander up. Luis Suarez has tremendous talent, but won't ever be a global favorite when his behavior makes him seem like a crazy man's Diego Maradona (yeah...that's pretty crazy). But with Uruguay in 5th place in Conmebol qualifying, with Diego Forlan aging rapidly, with Edinson Cavani alternating hot and cold, and with la Celeste's defense folding against top flight scorers like a Tide commercial soccer mom, there's no guarantee that he'll get to bring his madness back next summer...please, oh please...let's go everybody else in South America.
2. Expect more disappointment in Asia, Africa, North America and Oceania. As major supporters of the minnows of international soccer, our biggest disappointment in watching the Confederations Cup was the utter destruction of anything not from Europe or South America. Worse still, with the exception of Tahiti, these are teams that ought to represent the best of their continents. Yet Japan came way with nothing, Mexico slightly more than nothing (but even more scorn and derision from pundits), and Nigeria came away with the standard issue victory over Tahiti and a solid half against Spain. These are not the most promising signs of greater parity in the global game. Drat.
3. Hold off on that Hulk reboot. It's okay Disney, you can shed a tear over soccer. Admit it, it was too good to be true: your most successful tv station (ESPN) is all geared up to lovingly ogle Brazilian futbol, and perhaps the most ogle-able Brazilian player is named "Hulk"after a character in your most successful film franchise (Marvel comics). You could practically hear the keyboards rattling off spec scripts in Malibu coffee shops where Mark Ruffalo meanders down by Ipanema bumping into the staggering striker in a winking little aside. Then the Zenit St. Petersburg man went and underwhelmed us all (not unlike the Hulk movies themselves), next year's a long way away, but Disney's cross-platform synergy is on the verge of sputtering out.

NEW FEATURE: Starting XI

It's time for me to do something else new and different. In an effort to make sure there are some regular posts I'll try posting a list of 11 things that catch my attention or mean something special or just make me giggle. What better way to start out than with something that ties together two of my favorite sports passions: futbol and baseball.

I'll Buy This
(mwillis.com)

XI Reasons Being a Baseball Fan Makes it Easy to Be a Soccer Fan (and vice-versa)

I. Under the surface strategy: Don't get me wrong, a well placed 3 run homer or penalty kick is all well and good, but more often than not it's not what you see happening on the ball, it's what's happening away from it that matters. Did the outfielders really leave the left field line open for Joe Mauer? Did you see how Asamoah Gyan made that run to the back post? Totally drew the defenses attention away from Dede Ayew. There's always something more to see than what you see.

II. Minimal interruptions: The best games of baseball simply roll through, pitchers working quickly, catches made or missed, hits and walks building into rallies and sides swapping chances one after another. The same is true in soccer: passes and movements flowing seamlessly up and down the pitch for forty-five minutes at a time without a single commercial break. Sometimes there have to be bullpen bucket brigades, sometimes there's an obnoxious array of feigned injuries that eat up valuable time...but at their best the only thing that matters is playing the game.

III. Players pay their dues: Both baseball and soccer have baby-faced phenoms who soar into view out of nowhere and take the world by storm (your Mike Trouts and Neymars, for example). But even the young bucks have to work their way up to the top: through Clearwater and Round Rock  and Scranton until you get to Yankee Stadium or battling through Eindhoven and Valencia en route to London. But at the top levels of the game there are both phenoms and well seasoned vets who arrived at this stage through dedication and perseverance.

Cobb and Maradona would be best friends...after they killed each other

IV. Body types are no bar: Speaking of dedication and perseverance, you don't watch soccer or baseball with the sense that they are totally different than you. Take the top 5 baseball players of all time (by WAR [excluding Barry *Human Asterix* Bonds]: Ruth, Young, W. Johnson, Mays and Cobb). Their slightly taller than average (5'10" [Mays] to 6'2 [Johnson], and range from 170 pounds (Cobb) to 220 (Ruth), unlike the sky scraping NBA's top 5 (by PER: Jordan, James, O'Neal, Chamberlain and Robinson--all over 6'6") or the NFLs (by AVV: Favre, Rice, Manning, White and Lewis--all over 200 lbs, [minus Rice its 220]). Soccer players have a similar everyman quality about them--with the one exception that none of them had Ruth's hot dogs and beer diet--but world renowned names like Pele, Maradona, Johann Cruyff and Franz Beckenbauer are all under 6 feet. Helping you dream that just maybe you could do it too.

V. Whole new world of statistical analysis: While I've often been accused of being a numbers-averse, story heavy fan/writer, I absolutely appreciate well employed statistical analysis. And increasingly Soccer has started using advanced stats with serious foresight. Added into a vocabulary full of BABIP and VORP comes PS% (Pass Success %) and ADW (Aerial Duels Won). Heck, FIFA even sold naming rights to a statistic to Castrol! So as someone who appreciates their affectionate nerdery with a dash of numbers, it's an ideal situation.

VI. Long Season as an Asset: Part of the reason statistical analysis works so well in baseball and increasingly in soccer is the sheer size of the season, you can be confident that you're getting a good sample size with six months worth of games. Better still, you get to know players and story lines as they develop, and you also get a sense that every game counts because pennants are a badge of honor in baseball (and one of the only ways into the playoffs) and they are the whole kit and caboodle in futbol. While soccer does have a variety of in-season tournaments (an idea I floated on my own baseball blog), there's a great deal to savor in every game, no matter where you stand.

Admire the honesty

VII. Loyalty rewarded: Being a fan requires loyalty, sincerity and pride of purpose. It seems a little silly to non-fans that you care so much about a group of men you'll never meet, and yet you really come to feel like you live with and for the players you watch every day, cheering on their successes and screaming over their failures. And in the end there are players who want to be every bit as loyal to their fans and their adopted home as the fans are to them, which is why Jim Thome tears up in Minnesota, and why Mario Balotelli still wants to play for Italy, no matter what obscenities some people throw his way.

VIII. Front office strategy galore: Loyalty is great, but for many fans, winning is better. So I have to appreciate the cajoling, conniving and various intricacies of altering a roster to make your team better. It's not just Terry Ryan's trade talks, it's the waiver wire watching and the AAA call-ups. That's not an option in a lot of other sports, but it is in soccer. Twice a year ownership groups go on spending sprees that would make the worst shopaholics blanche. They scour the globe for the best talents and drop a dime or two to bring them aboard (50 M seems to be the going rate for the best scorers these days). But that's not all...there's a raft of players in youth development programs itching for a call-up and rigorous competition among players already on the team striving to unseat one another. What will happen and where and with whom? Half the fun is that the hot-stove season never really ends.

Pretty awesome
(Hurriyet Daily News)

IX. Female fans, not objects: With three boys and a boy-at-heart, my mother might seem to care about sports out of self defense, but she really worried about the hole in Delmon Young's swing, the Viking's doomed defensive schemes, Wolves' missed passes and, of course, offsides traps. But she rolls her eyes every time football and basketball cameras zoom in on bouncing/bouyant cheerleaders, and she brought me up to do the same. Look around a baseball stadium and you find no cheerleaders or spirit squads, just women in the stands bemoaning bad middle relief or celebrating good plate discipline. The same thing holds true on soccer terraces (possibly because women in the US play the game at an elite international level), where every well paced pass and deflected shot are cause for joy or alarm. I don't think cheerleaders are evil...but I know I'd rather be around women who know and love the game they're watching.

X. Low scoring: This might be even less American than saying, I feel weirded out having eye candy cheerleaders shoved in my face. I like low scoring contests. I like it when runs or goals come at a premium rather than in a bundle, because it encourages you to relish every opportunity you get. It also highlights that, though you may fail, persistence is it's own reward. 

XI. Sweet satisfaction in toppling the almighty: One of the things that goes hand-in-hand with low scoring affairs, is that anyone can be beaten at any time. The Yankees may spend more than the gross national product of Belize, but scrape together a few runs and they can be beaten. Manchester City may drop more hundred dollar bills than Montgomery Burns taking out the trash, but sneak a late goal and they too can be beaten. It feels great to be a Twins fan when the pin-stripers are scratching their heads in dismay, and equally great when Watford unseats City (or, on a global scale--when the plucky old stars and stripes shocks England/Spain or any one of a host of European Goliaths).

It's easy to love sports. And when you love these things, it's easy to share the love between two great games.

Drat you legal copyrights! I want to buy this!!
(mwillis.com)

I'm looking forward to visiting the birthplace of one great game, and to a great year of both games.

Happy Trails #119-92

Editors Note, rather than go back and fix ALL the numbers of ALL the Happy Trails posts, please note that while I started counting down from #207, I neglected to include two numbers who should be much higher--South Sudan (who is a FIFA Member but didn't exist when qualifying spots were drawn) and Mauritania who just slipped my mind. So we'll pick up our countdown of eliminated nations at 119.

The summer would be the ideal time to have a bunch of World Cup Qualifiers, and indeed, the last three weeks have seen action across the planet from Sydney, Australia to Sandy, Utah. But with all that exciting, amazing action, there's also a lot of disappointing, soul-crushing defeat.

So let's say farewell to those teams who saw their dreams die. And, in an effort to lessen the number of teams I have to write about when qualifying concludes in November, I'll include teams eliminated in regions that still have matches left. As part of my on going war against European-entitlement, I'll include UEFA teams first (since they've played the fewest rounds) and teams in their second or fourth rounds later on.


#119--Ciao, San Marino
Why They Lost: You mean besides the fact that they have a smaller population than Butte? Probably the fact that they have 1 win in 118 national team matches.
What We'll Miss: Europe's WIBD contender doesn't have a whole lot to hang their hat on...but they do have an Olympic Stadium! No...wait...it's just a high school stadium

#118--Farvel, Faroe Islands
Why They Lost: Largely because they are stuck playing Kazakhstan (2-0-0 all time against them) at the end of qualification, thereby denying them any chance to build momentum.
What We'll Miss: The opportunity to learn exactly how to type all the different accented o's in Fróði Benjaminsen or Hans Jørgensen

#117-- Tioraidh, Scotland
Why They Lost: To put it simply: Scottish football has fallen on hard times. Maybe I'm not cheering hard enough. Maybe there's too much upheaval and inconsistency in the management. Maybe the Tartan Army's gone too soft. Maybe none of the best athletes are going to football,  maybe they need a better training program, a better league. Or maybe we just all need to drink some more...yeah, that'll make it better.
What We'll Miss: Way back in the day, Scotland wore what they called "the Rosebury colors". Last worn 60 years ago, it's high time for a revival, don't you think?


#116 Fo Tuma Du, The Gambia
Why They Lost: Back to back three-nil defeats at the hands of Ivory Coast crushed their spirits and their goal differential. 
What We'll Miss: Brazil nuts are one of their major exports! Think of the tariff wars had they made the tournament and brought their Brazil nuts to Brazil...home of the nut itself!! (Still you can see three national team players: Sanna Nyassi, Abdoulie Mansally, and Mamdou Dansou ply their trade in the MLS)

#115 Lesali Sesihamba, Zimbabwe

The chicken would be a better Preisdent
than Robert Mugabe.

Why They Lost: It might be the chronically under experienced side (18 Caps is the most for anyone on the current national team roster). Or it might be because Egypt and Guinea are too strong a set of opponents. But I'm going to say it's because Robert Mugabe's a total knob who has driven his country into the depths of hyper-inflation, human rights abuses and despotic tyranny, lining his own pockets while citizens (including footballers) suffer. Yup. I blame Robert Mugabe. Why? (Because he's a tool and I have the freedom to say so...don't like it Bobby? Come and get me...psst, Morgan Transveri...then you can take power and hold free elections! It's fool proof!)
What We'll Miss: More Mugabe-bashing, plus the chance to analyze if Defender Felix Chindungwe's form will translate to his home team: Chicken Inn FC!

#114 Tsamayng Hantle Lesotho
Why They Lost: As we said in our profile of Lesotho there's not a whole lot of veteran presence to guide and support the young talents like Litsepe Marabe....also ceding 7 goals to Ghana really didn't help.
What We'll Miss: The "Well-I'll-Be-Darned" Minnow to watch for this round, the Crocodiles of Lesotho are yet another cinderella story gone awry. Then again...if a bunch of singing dancing mice helped Lesotho make the world cup, FIFA would probably investigate.

#113 M'asselema, Sudan

Saif Eldin Ali Maswai
Cocking an eyebrow at FIFA
rules like a boss

Why They Lost: In their second match, Sudan fielded Saif Eldin Ali Maswai and beat Zambia 2-0...however Mr. Ali-Maswai was ineligible to play (no idea why) so the result was reversed, Sudan sank to the bottom of the standings and hasn't risen again (equally intriguing, Zambia has a one point edge over Ghana--my adopted African home--and may eliminate the 2010 Quarterfinalists based on Sudan's misstake)
What We'll Miss: It would have been nice for the war-torn region of Africa to have a little joy on the pitch...but it would have made President/Chronic-Human-Rights-Abuser Omar Al-Bashir happy too...so...they can deal with the disappointment


#112 Adeus, Mozambique
Why They Lost: Os Mambas don't have quite as much of an international presence as their fellow fellow former colonies (Brazil and Angola), maybe midfielder Telhino can rouse his fellow U-25s into a stronger cohort
What We'll Miss: Crazy big scrabble points when using "Mozambique" (two 10 point letters and long enough to hit at least one double word score? SWEET)

#111 Murabeho, Rwanda
Why They Lost: Rwanda is split between two generations the old, experienced hands who've been localized players for the past decade or so, and the young up-and-comers who led the Wasps to the U-17 World Cup two years ago, and have been snatched up by clubs in Turkey, Belgium, France and England. This cup was likely preparation to pass off the torch to what may be a coming golden generation in Rwanda.
What We'll Miss: Seriously, one of the greatest most inspiring football stories in Africa in the last decade. Children of militia members and children of refugees playing alongside each other for their country. That's cool.

#110 Sai Watarana, Niger

Amadou Moutari

Why They Lost: The Menas were rather ineffective, scoring one goal in five matches. Their point totals are artificially inflated by an awarded victory over Gabon (3-0), take that away and they're -9.
What We'll Miss: A recent run of success in Nations' Cups makes Niger look like a rising talent, particularly midfielder Amadou Moutari, who at 19 is already on board with Le Mans in the French Ligue 1.

#109 Gue Ngozi, Central African Republic
Why They Lost: The Wild Beasts started out strong with a two-nil win over Botswana and then collapsed, dropping four straight matches to Ethiopia, South Africa and Botswana again.
What We'll Miss: Speaking of Le Mans and talented African athletes, the squad that nurtured Didier Drogba has two CAR players on their main squad: Hilaire Momi and Fernander Kassai...if you want a glimpse of Africa's talent...maybe we should just all watch Le Mans

#108 Kwaherini, Kenya
Why They Lost: For the Harambee Stars it was famine or moderately portioned meal. Throughout qualification they would draw or lose but never got a shot to win. Only once did they have the lead in a match (against the Nigerian Super Eagles), but taking the lead and keeping it were two different things. 
What We'll Miss: The Harambee spirit of Kenya is pretty much the soul of fair play and decency. Of course I don't think Spain's going to change their motto to "everyone for themselves"...so we'll just cheer fair play abstractly rather than specifically.

#107 Later, Liberia

Why They Lost: George Weah continues to stubbornly refuse attempts at a comeback. Come on, Georgie boy! You're just 46!

What We'll Miss: Awkward conversations between a triumphantly returning George Weah and political rival/Nobel prize winning president Ellen Johnson Sirleaf

#106 A bientot, Togo

Why They Lost: Emmanuel Adebayor is not George Weah. 
What We'll Miss: Imagining a band called Adebayor and the Pips.

Eat Your Heart out Expos

#105 Bo yi bo wa, Benin
Why They Lost: It's a good idea to stay loose and fresh between national team matches (hence Spain's dominance), but Benin only gets together when they have a qualifier to play. A 9 month lay-off between a draw with Rwanda and two tilts with Algeria might not have been the best idea.
What We'll Miss: The classy old school 70's federation logo that combines letters and ball into one cohesive whole: like the old Montreal Expos, only still in existence

I should be a coach...

#104 Enda Nawa, Angola
Why They Lost: Like the aforementioned Harambee Stars, the Sable Antelopes could not find the finishing stroke to triumph in matches, only to earn draws in them...maybe more time playing Mortal Kombat would help...
What We'll Miss: The end of Angola's golden generation that took them to the World Cup in Germany. 8 years on, most of the young guns are nearing retirement, and four years from now they DEFINITELY will be close to done.


#103 Nangalapo Nawa, Namibia
Why They Lost: The Namibians squandered their chance to play spoiler in group F. With big matches against Malawi and Nigeria these past two weeks they could only muster a pair of draws. Quite a shame
What We'll Miss: The surprisingly minimalist Namibian style.  The modest logo (a sun with a soccerball), the simple/honest slogan (Bringing People's Game to People), the nickname (Brave Warriors). Kind of a change of pace from all the other stuff out there.

Teodoro Obiang imprisons
dissidents...and his smile

#102 Magha, Equatorial Guinea
Why They Lost: Group B was a case of Tunisia and everybody else. The Nzalang Nacional couldn't put together much of anything away from the friendly confines Nueva Estadio de Malabo, and even there it was just one goal wins. 
What We'll Miss: Adding Teodoro Obiang to our list of dictators we like to make fun of....even though he's apparently an ally.


#101 Nain Dat, Sierra Leone
Why They Lost: The little known Kanye West Jinx, wherein any nation called out in a Kanye West song is doomed to 20 years of failure...
What We'll Miss: Hearing national team players swap stories of their club teams (the squad is flung from Kansas City to Tajikistand and from Sweden to Cyprus and Ghana to China).

#100 Tutaonana, Tanzania
Why They Lost: Not being able to play every match at home put a definite crimp in the Taifa Stars game plan (they won two matches at home and dropped every thing on the road)
What We'll Miss: Forward Mrishio Ngassa is easily the lion of the Tanzanian side. At just 24 he has 21 goals in 74 caps. Fingers crossed for his continued success.

#99 Tikala Milamu, Congo DR
Why They Lost: A three match goalless drought in this years qualifying matches has been a little disappointing for the Leopards whose three points helped but didn't give them a real shot at progression.
What We'll Miss: The chance to use world cup qualifiers as a means to effect a cease fire in a perpetually war torn area....oh and to bring up Mobutu Sese Seko...the most amusingly named dictator of all time.


#98 Khanbiafo, Mali
Why They Lost: Inability to defend home turf. Despite two big wins on the road in Rwanda and at home against Algeria, they could only eke out draws against bottom feeders Benin and Rwanda at home.
What We'll Miss: Arguably the best mix of experienced talent and young up-and-comers in this batch of eliminated teams. The recent national team debuts of four U-25 talents based in England, France and Italy bodes well (as does the nurturing forces of 30 year old talents in the same leagues)

Great outfit for Morocco's heat

#97 Lla yhennik, Morocco
Why They Lost: Remember when Morocco made 3 out of four world cups from '86 to '98...yeah, they do too...but to paraphrase Rick Pitino: "Mustapha Hadji isn't walking out here folks, Nourradine Naybet's not gonna walk through that door..."
What We'll Miss: Dropping the team nickname that seems at once epic and Ayn Randian "The Lions of Atlas"

#96 Ungesege, Guinea
Why They Lost: The National Elephants were head and shoulders above two other teams in their group. Controlling pretty much everything against Zimbabwe and managing points in both matches against Mozambique. But...well...Egypt dominated everyone, winning every one of their games. 
What We'll Miss: After 4 attempted/completed coups since 2008 it seemed like there might be some good news for Guinea this year...fingers cross we can talk about more positive results in future

#95 'Illa-liqaa, Lebanon

Ramez Dayoub...we were happy too
(Yahoo images)

Why They Lost: Terminally under-ranked, the mighty cedars of Lebanon soldiered their way through qualifying across Asia, from Bangladesh through Kuwait and UAE and into the last stage of qualifying. And while a 3-0 blemish against South Korea marred an otherwise strong first half of the campaign (that took them primarily on the road) losing to Qatar, Uzbekistan and finally plummeting to a 4-0 to an Iranian team they had beaten 9 months before.
What We'll Miss: A truly great story that was our first Minnow-to-Watch to keep us watching.

#94 Fiiman Illaah, Iraq
Why They Lost: It was likely a little much to ask the Lions of Mesopotamia to beat Japan and Australia, but initial draws with Jordan and Oman held a promising possibility, just beat them in your second legs and you would have the third spot sewn up. It worked against Jordan...not so much against Oman.
What We'll Miss: It might be nice to hear "O Victorious Baghdad" again...a nice tune you can dance to!

Always remains High, O Victorious Baghdad, (تضلي دايما فوق، منصورة يا بغداد)

And to see your eternal Glory, O Victorious Baghdad. (ونشوف عزج دوم، منصورة يا بغداد)

O Victorious Baghdad, O Victorious Baghdad, (منصورة يا بغداد، منصورة يا بغداد)

#93 Salaam, Qatar
Why They Lost: The Maroon were perpetually forced to play teams that were not Lebanon. If they could just keep playing the Cedars they would still be undefeated...ah well.
What We'll Miss: Not much, with Qatar due to host the World Cup in 9 years, we're well assured of many, many, MANY more jokes at their expense in the decade to come.

#92 Allah yisallimak, Oman
Why They Lost: The Red Warriors were in prime position, needing a draw, just a draw, in Jordan and they would have third place all to themselves. The first half fit the bill, until Ahmed Hayel Ibrahim spoiled the party in the 57th minute to give Jordan the win and end Oman's dream. 

What We'll Miss: Mocking international ruiner of a manager: Paul Le Guen...who will be the lucky team foiled by him next? Honduras? Austria? We're dying to know!

With that it's Happy Trails to all, with hopefully a few more posts between now and the next round of eliminated sucka-dogs in September.

In it...but win it? #2 Australia, South Korea, Iran

We're ready to continue our look at teams that have qualified for the 2014 World Cup, by analyzing their chances as quickly as possible, thereby removing all responsibility for doing things well.

Qualifier #3 Australia
Contender Credentials: The Socceroos have quietly become one of the most consistent teams in the Asian Football Confederation. Building off a trip to Germany in 2006 (their last year in the Oceania Confederation), they have now made three-straight World Cups. Furthermore, the power of local players has become increasingly apparent as long serving national team members continue plying their trade in the top divisions of Europe, and increasingly do so along side well regarded younger players (24 year olds [GK] Mitchell Langerak, [F] Robbie Kruse and [MF] Tom Rogic).

Pretender Problems: Though heavily favored to qualify, Australia was totally lack luster in the first several rounds of qualifying matches, mustering just 1 in in 6 tries (though they did earn points in all their others). It's hard to imagine a team threatening the best in the world when they struggle with Oman as much as the Aussies did. Add in that favored veterans like goalie Mark Schwarzer are nearing 40 and the power house looks more like the old age home.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: The Aussies were playing it cool in the early go, but now are a force to be reckoned with, and with familiar hands helping the newbies they shock the world en route to the semis, while the lousy Kiwis stay home.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Worse than their qualifying campaign, one rank outsider beats them like an old didjeridoo while New Zealand shockingly makes the knockout stages.
Prediction: A few stellar showings marred by inability to finish the job leaves them just outside of the knockout stage--3rd in their group.

Qualifier #4 Iran
Contender Credentials: Over the last two decades Iran has had a familiar pattern--qualify, fail to qualify, qualify, fail to qualify. Though even in their failures they often come heartbreakingly close. They head to the tournament next year with coaching golden(ish) boy Carlos Quieroz at the helm, a man who led South Africa and Portugal to the Mondiale before doing the same for Team Melli and is as doggedly loyal and supportive of Iran in general as your friendly neighborhood Imam. Under Quieroz they have perhaps the most fearsome defense in Asia, ceding just two goals in the last round of qualification.

Pretender Problems: Ceding two goals was nearly two goals too many as Iran was tied with Qatar for third place coming into the month, only a startling offensive outburst from Standard Leige's Reza Ghoochannejhad boosted them in (largely on the back of a 4-0 romp over Lebanon). Iran also has a habit of promoting players attuned to the local political philosophy rather than those who are really really good (hence Ali Daei's 100+ caps...though his 100+ goals also have something to do with that).

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Slotted in a group with decadent westerners (and Israel) Iran crushes them all; then they do the same through the knock out stages until decimating the U.S. 10-0 in the final [this fantasy brought to you directly from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's brain]
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Quieroz implodes (as he is want to do) the goals dry up and all the players start drinking, swearing and saying provocative things like: "hey, whatever people want to do is cool with me, live and let live I always say" [this nightmare brought to you directly from Ayatollah Khameni's brain]
Prediction: The defense is not as effective on the world stage as it is in Asia and a dearth of goals (another Quieroz trademark), Iran finishes bottom of their group. But the players remain good muslims, inshallah [this dose of reality brought to you by everyone not named Mahmoud Ahmadinejad/Ayatollah Khameni]


Qualifier #5 South Korea
Contender Credentials: The fourth and final member of Asia's elite four teams: South Korea may have been playing the game the longest (assuming you count chuk-guk, which you should...if only for the name). They have a World Cup streak that might just shame the rest of the continent, having been to every Mondiale since 1986 (That's 8 straight to 3 for Australia and 5 for bitter rivals: Japan). Finally they offer perhaps the best developed and organized talent nurturing program on the continent, with national team fixtures (like Park-ji Sung) gladly making way for younger talents (like Son Heung-Min) that all routinely play in the top flight of international competition.

Pretender Problems: Chuk-guk is not futbol, and players who qualified in 1986 will not be taking the field in Brazil next summer. And for a talented team, the Taeguk Warriors sure didn't look like one in their final matches, as (on their home soil mind you) they needed an own goal to get past Uzbekistan and lost 1-0 to Iran. An onslaught of goals in Takshent nearly put the Uzbeks through and sent South Korea to the dread play-in...a pretty mighty fall from grace for a team that was on top of the group heading into last week.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Fueled by dynamic young talent, South Korea plays their most fluid style of futbol reminding everyone why they are the top talent in Asia and top their fourth place finish in 2002 by a solid three spots.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: The far flung players in Europe are worn out when they have to trudge to Asia for training and thence to South America for competition, finishing with three losses...meanwhile Japan wins the tournament and taunts Korea with it across sea, while North Korea takes their failure as a sign of weakness and attacks.
Prediction: Some underperforming European side [*cou{HOLLAND}gh!*] comes apart in their group and the Warriors capitalize to make their second straight appearance in the round of 16.

Waning Seconds: ASIA UPDATE!

A few weeks ago we ran down how every Asian team still had a chance to qualify for the world cup.

Yeah...that's not so much the case any more.

So here now is a run down on how it can play out tomorrow as three more tickets are punched for Brazil and one serious squabble is set for September.

First Match

Yup...it's adorable

Australia plays Iraq in Sydney in the first game of the day. The Iraqis must be disappointed not to parlay recent AFC success into a World Cup bid, but they could always settle for ruining the Socceroos day.

A win for Australia sees them straight to Brazil, anything less and they have to stay up late to see what happens between Oman and Jordan

Group A Simulcast

The most thrilling part of qualification is playing right in the midst of another match that could just as easily determine your destiny. That's the situation for South Korea, Iran and Uzebekistan (Qatar too...but they were left in the dust on the last match day so a four way battle is out of the question).

South Korea's goal is simplest. Get a point at home against Iran and you're going down South America way. Having won all their home tilts so far this campaign it seems likely.

Jon Snow is rooting for Uzbekistan

If South Korea does win, Uzbekistan can make history by winning their own match and vaulting the White Wolves into their first ever World Cup. But if they draw or lose, they'll have to face the third place finisher in Group B for the chance to face the fifth place team in South America for a spot in Brazil.

And, then again, Iran can screw everything up (after all, it is Iran). A win and they're in. A Uzbekistan draw or loss, and they're in. But if Iran wins mightily (like they did against Lebanon) and Uzbekistan wins mightily, then South Korea crashes down to third place. OR, if Iran draws and Uzbekistan wins mightily, then they Ayatollah's favored 11 have to do the 5th-place-playoff.

And just in case entry to the most prestigious tournament on the planet isn't enough drama for you, now the Koreans and Iranians are jawing at each other about "poor treatment" "humiliation" and subtle hints at match fixing...I'm guessing that match will have a little extra juice to it.

Final Match

The real thrill of the day comes at the end of the day in Amman, Jordan, but it depends largely on what happens in Australia six-and-a-half hours earlier.

When even a little soccer blog
takes potshots at you...you should
be sad

The visiting Red Warriors of Oman could easily settle for a draw to solidify their spot in third place/the fifth place playoff (a new record for their nation), especially if Australia wins in which case they couldn't do better than third anyway. But if the Socceroos fall, the door opens for Oman and a victory would set an even better new record: World Cup qualification. (An Australia draw plus a seven goal victory of Jordan would also see them through...but come on, there's a better chance of Keanu Reeves winning a Tony award than there is of that happening.)

The home team will be desperate for a win, as they need all three points just to move in to third (an Australia loss plus a highly unlikely 8 goal swing in goal differential is the only way they've got to get in directly).

So there it is, six teams are set to battle for three sure thing spots and two awkward third-place will-they-or-won't-they playoffs.

In It...but Win It? #1 Brazil & Japan

It's time to a for a new feature here on the Montana Hooligans! We've spent much of the last two years chronicling the ups and downs of the qualifying process of all those teams major news outlets rarely talk about. Does ESPN care if Lebanon topped Pakistan? Does Rupert Murdoch's sport empire bother to tell you what Guyana's chances are? NOPE! But we do because...well...because we're nerds.

We'll fit in GREAT!!

Yet, in just about one year we'll be down to just 32 teams in Brazil, so perhaps we ought to take a little time to look at serious contenders as well. So when teams punch their tickets to the final round of competition, we'll celebrate their accomplishment and then give you rapid analysis of their chances to win the cup--long before we know who they'll actually face and who will actually be on their team.

You might be asking, why should you do that? Well, we offer this analysis, not because it will be accurate or even useful, but because it will be funny and fast. After all, any one can give you accurate analysis in a few months, but we're happy to give you inaccurate analysis as soon as we can. (And if that's not a pitch to add us to CNN's broadcast team, I don't know what is)

Qualifier #1: Brazil

Contender Credentials: Start with the one of their many nicknames: Pentacampeão or "Five Time Champions". Brazil churns out championship calibre squads and players like the Disney Channel churns out future child-star rehabbers. Their joga bonito style of play is often imitated but never duplicated giving rise to the popular Brazilian saying: "futbol was invented in England and perfected by Brazil". And as host nation they get the regular home-field advantage that comes each World Cup, as teams out perform their expectations.

Pretender Problems: Between former coach Mano Menezes fielding young, untested squads that struggled at times, and recent rehire Luiz Filipe Scolari struggling even more in the run-up to the Confederations Cup, this is not your pappy's Seleção. They've fallen to 22nd in the FIFA world rankings, their lowest ranking...ever. They have now slipped behind Ecuador, Switzerland and Bosnia/Herzegovina, leaving them just one step ahead of Mali. How a team like that wins the World Cup? I do not know

Pie-In-The-Sky Scenario: The salubrious effects of playing at home rejuvenate Brazil and they steamroll every opponent enroute to their sixth championship
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Without clear focus in the attack, and with the pressure of their home fans around them at every turn, they crumble in a Round-of-Sixteen game for their worst performance in 24 years.
Our Ridiculously Early Prediction: A little home-cooking helps, but can't overcome natural deficits Semi-Finalists

Qualifier #2: Japan

Contender Credentials: Japanese football is clearly on the rise. Its best domestic players are battled over with the same passion you hear about around elite African or Latin American prospects (Shinji Kagawa of Man United to name but one). Manager Alberto Zaccheroni has crafted the best winning percentage of any Japanese manager since Hans Ooft nearly twenty years ago. Add to that a fourth place finish at last year's Olympics, a spot at the Confederation's Cup this month and an impressive march to qualification and you've got a hot squad.

Pretender Problems: Though they've had some success in recent cups, Zac Japan (so called in honor of its manager) has not yet won a game in the knock-out stages. And as well as they've played in qualifying, the best teams in recent years have played together or against each other far more than they play apart. The youngest players on the national team play in Japan, the more experienced players are scattered from England and Germany, to Russia, Belgium and Italy, making it more difficult to prepare as one cohesive unit.

Pie-In-The-Sky Scenario: Building off recent successes and spurred on by the largest Japanese population outside of Japan (1.8 million), the Blue Samurai make a shocking run to the finals!

Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Worn out by disparate club schedules and stuck in a difficult group, they continue their alternating pattern of stink-knockouts-stink-knockouts...with a decidedly stinky performance.

Our Ridiculously Early Prediction: There's too much talent to be ignored, but not enough to shock the world: Quarterfinalists

Waning Seconds: Asia

In just a little more than a week, the last matches of AFC qualifying will begin and we will start slotting our first, official, not-host-nation entrants into the World Cup. As we approach these crucial three weeks worth of games, it's worth noting that every team could still work their way into the cup. And so we present (from most likely to least likely) the scenarios for who will qualify from the AFC

Already Looking At Airfares

Japan (Remaining Matches (6/4--v. Australia; 6/11--@Iraq)

They Qualify If: They get 1 point from either remaining match

They Go to a Play-off If: They lose both matches and Jordan & Iraq win all remaining

They Stay Home Next Summer If: A giant prehistoric lizard thing rises up from the Pacific and decimates Tokyo 

THAT WAY TO BAGGAGE CLAIM!

Confederation champions, top of their group, persistent qualifiers and all around dominant force of Asian football, Japan really is pretty good to go. It would take a pair of crippling losses to Australia and Iraq coupled with Jordan and Australia winning out in huge fashion to knock them down to the play-in games. (Since Jordan and Australia play eachother on June 11th, they'll have to do something pretty fancy in order to both win.) Realistically, if you love Japanese football, you can start booking plane tickets, pricing thongs, stocking up on sunscreen and taking Samba lessons because barring a total disaster, you're going to Brazil next summer.

A Game in Hand is Worth Two in the Bush...or Table Or Something

Right next to Japan in the pantheon of Asian football powers, South Korea and Australia are pretty solid bets for any World Cup now-a-days. And though neither are at the top of their qualifying tables, both have three games left to gain points and get into the final round of competition.

South Korea (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Lebanon; 6/11--v. Uzbekistan; 6/18--v. Iran])

They Qualify IF: They get a couple wins in their last matches

They go to Play-off IF: They get three points

They Stay Home Next Summer IF: Kim Jong Un gets an itchy trigger finger

All South Korea really needs is a point from each of their three final matches (@ Lebanon and home for Uzbekistan and Iran) and they're golden. Well...actually, all South Korea needs is a point from each of  their final three matches AND somebody to eliminate all the nukes in North Korea and they're golden. And hey, hit four points and you don't even need to worry about the continental play-off.

Australia (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Japan; 6/11--v. Jordan; 6/18--v. Iraq])
They Qualify IF: They meet expectations
They go to Play-off IF: They continue to underwhelm
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: The wheels fall off the wagon, the shrimp fall off the barbi, and the Fosters plant moves to Holland.

Things are slightly trickier for the Socceroos who have to start with Japan (in a definite struggle that might see them slip out of even third place). But their final two matches (at home versus Jordan [who can't win away from Amman] and Iraq [already beaten by Australia]) offer plenty of points to a merely competent Australian squad.

"Donnie, You're Out of Your Element!"

Unlike the first three teams I wrote about, Uzebekistan and Jordan would be big dance debutants should their current positions hold. But they have one less game to play than their more experienced rivals, and they have little control over what really happens.

Uzbekistan (Remaining Matches [6/11--@South Korea; 6/18 v. Qatar])

Do you recognize these men?

They Qualify IF: The young guns like Sanzhar Tursunov and Farhod Tojiyev pull out at least one big win.
They go to Play-off IF: The old timers like Server Djeparov and Timur Kapadze refuse to let a great start go wrong and get at least a point from each match.
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: All the players want to avoid awkward mispronunciations of their names on international television and they tank the last couple matches

Uzbekistan's youth program has been impressive of late and may make for a compelling dark horse in Brazil. But to get there they'll likely need at least three points to put themselves in the playoffs, and rather than banking on a win in Seoul on the 11th, they'll likely gear up for a more winnable match against Qatar in Tashkent on the 18th.

Jordan (Remaining Matches [6/11--@ Australia; 6/18--v.s. Oman
They Qualify IF: They finally pack their A-Game on the road and defend home turf (as usual)
They go to Play-off IF: They defend home but continue to scuffle on the road.
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They scuffle both home and away.

Meanwhile Jordan's Al-Nashama (The Chivalrous) have a more closely packed group with three teams behind them, all within two points of second place. Having failed to get a single point on the road in this group, Jordan has to head for Melbourne on the 11th, before closing out with Oman on the 18th. To be fair, the Socceroos have drawn both of their home ties this campaign, so a point in Melbourne isn't out of the question, but if The Chivalrous want to make King Abdullah proud, they definitely need the win in Amman (and then hope for a fair shot in the continental play-offs)

Literally...Everything to Play For

Iran (Remaining Matches [6/4--@ Qatar; 6/11--v. Lebanon; 6/18--@ South Korea])
They Qualify IF: They want to live like heroes
They go to Play-off IF: They want to live
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They want to live like heroes of a revolution

Iran has a long and storied history in international football (like Japan, South Korea and Australia); they also have three games still to play (like South Korea and Australia), but they have a slightly more challenging task ahead of them. They're already 3 points back of South Korea, and need multiple results in their favor to pull ahead of Uzbekistan. They have to face the two underdog teams in Lebanon and Qatar whose whole campaigns hinge on beating Team Melli, before finishing IN South Korea.

Khameni prefers a 4-3-4

Then there's this: Iran's presidential election is scheduled for June 14th (between the Lebanon and South Korean matches). It will be the first election in Iran since the Arab Spring and the Green Revolution that threatened full scale rebellion during the last election (2009). Mahmoud Ahmadinijad will not be running. The Aytollah has blocked genuine reformers including former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani from candidacy. And the national team includes Masoud Shojaei and Captain Javad Nekounam who both suddenly "retired" after supporting the Green Revolution protestors publicly during their last qualifying campaign. Add to all of this the fact that qualifying for the World Cup is a welcome distraction from domestic troubles, but failing to qualify for the World Cup kind of, sort of, endangers really any ruling party in any country anywhere.

SO! If Iran beats Qatar and Lebanon, not only will they qualify for at least the continental play-offs, but the elections likely go off without a hitch, protecting players for another year or more and installing another hardline reformer who follows the will of the Ayatollahs. If Iran drops either or (inshallah) BOTH games, the populace (particularly young men with nothing better to do) will likely be dissatisfied, the elections are jeopardized and Shojaei and Nekounam (plus any other idealistic young athletes) have to face the awkward decision of whether they stand up with their fellow citizens and risk expulsion from the team [again] OR if they shut up and play out the string as their country roils from the inside out.

That's a little bit of pressure, wouldn't you say?

Clinging to the Cliff Face

I kind of want in on this party!

Oman (Remaining Matches [6/4--v.s. Iraq; 6/18--@Jordan])
They Qualify IF: They dominate their last two opponents and run up the goal differential
They go to Play-off IF: They just take care of business
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They decide they don't want to allow jabronis around the world to shout "Oh, man! Oman lost again!" and throw the last two matches

As we noted with Jordan, there are four teams bunched within 2 points of each other. And all that comes to a head when Iraq and Oman square off in Muscat on the 4th of June. A win for Oman and they can write their own ticket, they'll be just a point in Jordan away from a minimum 3rd place finish. 

Iraq (Remaining Matches [6/4--@Oman; 6/11--v.s. Japan; 6/18@Australia])
They Qualify IF: They rule and their opponents drool.
They go to Play-off IF: They do well and their opponents do slightly less well...
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They are average and their opponents are a little better than that.

Meanwhile, a win for Iraq puts the recent Asian title holders on a brutal final set of matches, at home versus Japan and in Australia. Best case scenario: Iraq beats Oman while Japan wraps up their qualifying with a win over Australia. Then Japan rests their stars allowing Iraq an easy three points in the second match, setting up a decisive final match against Australia (who pull a measly draw with Jordan in their second match), with momentum going all the way of the Lions of Mesopotamia. Worst case scenario: literally anything else happens.

Qatar (Remaining Matches [6/4--v. Iran; 6/18--@Uzbekistan])
They Qualify IF: They shock they world
They go to Play-off IF: They mildly surprise the world
They Stay Home Next Summer IF:  They totally underwhelm the world

And then there's Qatar the little nation that wants so badly to prove they aren't the corrupt ne'er-do-wells who swiped away the 2022 World Cup from other countries. Their chance to prove exactly that starts on the 4th in Doha where a win over Iran would go a long way to improving their odds (and ruining Iran's). Provided that Iran and Uzbekistan scuffle in their June 11th matches (against Lebanon and South Korea respectively) that sets the stage for Qatar to slip in if they win big in Uzbekistan on the 18th.

Slim To None

Lebanon (Remaining Matches [6/4--v.South Korea; 6/11--@Iran])
They Qualify Directly IF: They refuse to lose and other teams refuse to win
They go to Play-off IF: They refuse to lose and one team stubbornly meets expectations
They Stay Home Next Summer IF: They accept their own limitations and find satisfaction in their accomplishments to this point.

We've been driving the Lebanon bandwagon for over a year and a half now. But there is only one path that can get our beloved Cedars into a qualifying scenario. They need to win their last two matches: against South Korea in Beirut and at Tehran and then hope that Qatar and Iran draw their own match (June 4th during the South Korea game) and lose/draw the rest of the way.

Any outright victory for either the Qatari or the Iranians and Lebanon would have to get a massive swing in goal differential, or a horrific plague of gout in the other countries...so, better win now.

Those are all the ways that Asian qualification could end. And while we would love to see Japan, Australia, South Korea, and the Uzbeks make it in (with Lebanon squeaking into the intercontinental playoffs) We have to admit, it's a tetchy possibility at best. 

One thing's for sure. Monday Morning Futbol is going to be a whole lot of fun for the next three weeks.

Happy Trails #123-121: Islands in the Stream

The first confederation to finish their qualification round has passed the post.

Oceania has, unsurprisingly, crowned New Zealand as their best hope to qualify for the World Cup. The Kiwis will be looking to make their second consecutive Cup, and after shocking Italy and nearly making the round of 16 last time around, they have a great opportunity again here. But first they'll have to beat the 4th place team in CONCACAF (currently that's Honduras, but Mexico's just a point back).

But there will be time to analyze the All-Whites later. This is the time we set aside to bid farewell to the teams whose dreams of glory are now gone (assuming they had dreams of glory to begin with). So join me as we pour out a Mai Tai for those we lost this round.

#123: See ya, Solomon Islands
Why they lost: The confederations' top underdog, underperformed after an opening win against Tahiti. Giving up 6 goals to New Zealand, and then 11 goals to New Caledonia over two matches will do that to you.

What we'll miss: The opportunity to keep talking about the Bonitos (the team mascot and a particularly rough kind of tuna fish) and this...the coolest federation logo in this group of Happy Trails participants

#122: Parahi, Tahiti
Why they lost: Chalk it up to over confidence. After a stunning OFC Confederations title (besting New Caledonia and never having to face New Zealand) Tahiti was riding high coming into the last round of OFC qualifications. But once they started playing away from the magical pitch at Honoria (in the Solomon Islands), things got shaky and Team Fenua, as they are known, were toast.

What we'll miss: The stirring story of how part-time footballers are competing against heavy weights like Spain and Uruguay...wait a second...they're going to the Confederations Cup this summer? Well, then we'll miss telling those stirring stories twice.

#121: Adieu, New Caledonia
Why they lost: The land of speech, land of sharing fell just short of one of the biggest shocks in 2014 qualifying. They were still alive in the contest (just three point behind New Zealand entering the last two matches), but they needed to get another victory of New Zealand--after pulling a stunning 2-0 victory last June--and a big goal differential victory of Solomon Islands, while Tahiti held the Kiwis to a draw or loss.

But New Zealand won against the Kagus and the dream died there. Still, New Caledonia may be a dark horse to watch in future qualifications

What we'll miss: Trying to explain what in the heck that national emblem is...oh and promising new comers Georges Gope-Fenepej and Caesar Lolohea.

CAF WIBD: Crocodile Tears

It's been a little while since our last journey down the "Well-I'll-be-darned" street, and while we will be wrapping up most of the qualifying in the next six months, there's still a chance to root for those tiniest of minnows.

We continue our tour of lesser known teams battling for a shot at Brazil 2014 in Africa, by taking a trip  to the tiny state of Lesotho, surrounded by South Africa, crouched in the bottom of their second round group, but still granted an opportunity that other countries don't have: to play the game with the world on the line. (So take that Bhutan and Vanuatu!)

I like her hat better...
Photo: Catholicforum.com

Lesotho (aka "The Crocodiles") started their campaign ranked #185 in the world (August 2011) presumably because the Will & Kate royal wedding had finally eradicated glow of King Lesthi III's royal wedding a decade before.  Yet the Crocodiles rolled on to round two by beating Burundi.

As a reward for their positive showing in the first round of qualifying Lesotho got lumped with a couple tough opponents for round 2, including Ghana (fresh from their shoulda-been-semis performance in South Africa), Zambia (hungry to prove themselves and gearing up for what would be their first African Cup of Nations title this winter) and Sudan (I wouldn't want to mess with Omar al-Basheer, would you?).

Sure enough they got thumped in the opener 7-0 by the Black Stars tying their national federation's record for worst. loss. ever.

Goal scorer Letsipe Marabe
(Courtesy www.mtnfootball.com)

Since then Basotho fans have been able to cheer their boys in blue & green much more. At home in Maseru they've drawn twice and even notched a much needed goal which lifted them past Sudan into third place.

Still, it might be early to ring the victory bells (or rather, since this is Lesotho the setelo-tolo/jaw harp), there's a long way to go. This is unchartered water for the crocodiles and if young gun Letsipe Marabe is the only guy to get a goal, there's not a whole lot of veteran leadership who can keep the young squad steady if Ghana runs up the score again (hint...they probably will...).

Still, as long as there is a blog like this there will be foolish hopefulness for the underdog. If the Crocodiles can get wins in their next/last three matches (two of which are away from home) they can shockingly, miraculously, eliminate both the continent's champion and their best performer from the past two world cups.

Impossible you say?!? Yeah, probably...but where's the fun in admitting defeat?