Waning Seconds: CAF Part I--Put Me in Coach

When this publishes I'll be somewhere in the outer most reaches of the Twin Cities Metro shouting for teenagers to run faster. A new gig as a cross-country coach will fill up my time for sure, but it will also remind me of just how much fun you can have when you're helping young people strive for a difficult goal.

Of course, I've got nothing on a national futbol team manager, who has to help young people strive for the difficult goal of being named to the best in the world rather than simply running three miles in less than 30 minutes.

In African qualifying there's just one game left this weekend, where the strong will survive for one more month and one more hurdle before the World Cup final. And while we frequently fixate on the players who make it happen, here's a tip of the cap to the coaches who are striving for the next stage and who we think (based on wikipedia profiles) has the best chance to get them in

Friday

Group D

James Akwasi Appiah has revived the Ghanaian tradition of local bred coaches after a decade under the iron thumbs of a squad of Serbians. The former national team/Asante Kotoko left back has had the Black Stars in fine form, as you might expect from one of Africa's premier footballing nations, but his work isn't done because of the pesky thorn that is Zambia.

"No those shorts don't
make you look fat,
c'mon boys they won't
hold our table!"

On Friday night (Friday morning stateside) in Kumasi Appiah's squad takes on the only team to beat them in qualifying this go-round: the Copper Bullet's of Zambia and their willingly French coach, Herve Renard. Renard's made much of his career in and about Africa following the path of his mentor Claude LeRoy (the grandaddy of all neo-colonial managers), but his recent bout of success with Zambia's impressive: guiding them to their first African Cup of Nations win in 2012, and the first defeat of Ghana in World Cup Qualifying since 2004.

With just one point between them Appiah has the edge here, knowing that any result at all will send them through. Renard will have to play aggressively and have his team attack (likely with captain/Black Star killer Christopher Katonga and young gun Emmanuel Mayuka) before racing back to defend, while Appiah can trust the quiet strength of Ghana's defense to guard themselves. It might not be Appiah's preferred style, but if it does the job, the entire Ghana nation will forgive him.

Saturday Afternoon

Group A

I'm admittedly biased. I got real giddy when I thought Ethiopia had qualified for the third round back in June. They were sunk into the last pot for the Round 2 draw, at the start of the cup they were 35th out of the 40 teams in Round 2. And they were about to qualify...until...they fielded Minyahil Teshome against Botswana...and had their victory over the Zebras stripped away, leaving the final set of games with everything to lose.

Sewnet knows you aren't doing
sit ups with proper form.

So, Sewnet Bishaw (Ethiopia's coach) deserves both a tonnage of credit and a pile of blame. Leave Teshome off the squad you're already in...but he's also responsible for getting the Walia Antelopes this far and for doing it all based on his training as a Phy Ed teacher. Honestly, how do you not root for this guy?

Sewnet's squad gets to face the Central African Republic, but they've done well on the road earning points both in South Africa (draw) and Botswana (the redacted victory), now if they beat bottom-feeding CAR they render the other game moot. Meanwhile Gordon Igesund's Bafana Bafana will be betting it all on a win over Stanley Tsoshane's Zebras of Botswana. The pair of former strikers will likely minimize defense in an attempt to out gun Ethiopia on goal differential, it remains to be seen if the prolific club man (Igesund) will out maneuver the 5-year incumbent (Tsoshane).

Group F

Saintfelt, probably asking: "Is that
Coaching job available?!?!"

As Group A draws to a close the ultimate showdown of ultimate destiny for Group F will kick off in Calabar, Nigeria. The Super Eagles have a 2 point and +1 goal gap against the Red Flames of Malawi. That should play perfectly into ex-National team defender Stephen Okechukwu Keshi's plan, and allow the Confederation Cup squad to rest a lot of men back in defense. I have no idea how Malawi's Tom Saintfelt will counter that, in large part because the itinerant Beligan never seems to stick around one place long enough to reflect a particular skill...heck....this will be his first (and possibly only) game coaching Malawi. But I'll hope he can earn his players support with a few trust falls and community building activities.

Group E

There's more complicated matters afoot in Group E (which gets under way 30 minutes after kickoff in Nigeria). Like Ethiopia, Congo is a big dreamer (emerging from Pot 4) on top of the group with 10 points and will be away to the bottom feeders (Niger). Meanwhile the middle teams (Burkina Faso and Gabon) have 8 and 7 points respectively and will square off in Oagudagu--home to the slightly advantaged Burkina Faso. 

Quick Guess which coach this is!

Group E's coaches are a motley crew of European scamps. There's 52 year old Kamel Djabour who has done well with Congo in his first official placement as a head coach (wikipedia's vague on the details of his relationships with clubs in Benin and Mali--then again at 4 sentences it is 4 sentences longer than my own Wikipedia page). There's former Portuguese league star Paulo Duarte whose time at the head of Gabon's Golden Panthers has been relatively smooth, but will now have to face his old Burkina Faso squad whom he improved by saying "Marry a Burkiniabe get a free Starting Position!" (Note...not really, but I feel like I have to dramatize these player eligibility scandals). Finally, there's Burkina Faso's new man: Paul Put, who (following an undistinguished tenure with The Gambia) is attempting to salvage his career after a three-year ban for his part in a match-fixing scandal (notably, he was the only one who accepted any kind of punishment for it).

So, who do you root for? The older neophyte? The rule bending itinerant? Or the reformed match-fixer? Yeah...it's the underdog Congo again, isn't it?

Group B

What should you watch after your Saturday morning chores, with an easy to make deli sandwich in hand and the promise of a nap in the offing? Well...if you actually want to nap I'm sure there's a golf tournament somewhere. But if you want entertainment you might try to see if you can catch the showdown games for Group B and J

The last nation standing up to the promise of the Arab Spring: Tunisia gets to host Cape Verde Islands in Rades. The Blue Sharks are decided underdogs but have one big asset in coach Ulisses Indalecio Silva Antunes (Lucio to his friends), consistency. Antunes has been with Cape Verde since 2010, leaving the cushy gig of Air-Traffic controller for the public vilification of national team futbol coach. Cape Verde's gotten progressively better over time, but Tunisia has a two point lead and hasn't lost a match at home in over a year (they've only played at home twice...but still!).

It remains to be seen what Nabil Maaloul will do with the Eagles of Carthage, he's unbeaten since taking the reins in March, but has never managed a game this big for the national team side before. Chances are Tunisia plays a well structured, defensively minded game to solidify their lead in points and goals; but as long as air traffic controllers can morph into futbol managers, there's hope for Cape Verde.

Dream the dream Ulisses!

Group J

Wrapping up an absurdly busy day of African qualifiers is the Group J showdown between Senegal and Uganda...in Morocco. Why Morocco you ask? Well, apparently fans of the Lions of Teranga didn't feel like behaving themselves during ACN qualifiers last year so now they don't get to watch any games at all...so there! PBBBT!

Michel!! Vous etes mon
meilleur ami!! MEILLEUR!!

The Cranes of Uganda are in the unenviable position of having to win to stay alive, and having to do so with one of the recently fashionable, defensive minded, Serbian coaches: Milutin Sredojevic. Sredojevic was unceremoniously sacked by Rwanda in April having gotten them only one point in three matches, but he has already helped net Uganda six points through June qualifiers (courtesy of one early goal and a pile of defense against Liberia and two late goals against Angola). Those six points saw Uganda soar from bottom of the group to second ahead of the match against Senegal.

The Senegalese get French Midfield legend Alain Giresse whose old running-mate in Le Carre Magique, Michel Platini, may soon end up running FIFA. Giresse has Senegal gunning for their second Cup qualification ever (and first since the '02 Quarterfinalists). Though Senegal's just a point up on Uganda, the young and explosive side fits very nicely with Giresse's style making the road ahead that much tougher for Uganda

Sunday

Group I

There will also be plenty of matches on Sunday, mostly featuring the teams from groups C, G, and H where it's all been decided in favor of first-time manager Sabri Lamouchi's Ivory Coast, American exile Bob Bradly's Egypt and Bosnian survivor Vahid Halilhodžić's Algeria.

But there is one match worth keeping an eye on: Cameroon and Libya from Yaounde early on Sunday morning, and it's one that may effect the employment of two coaches heading in very different direction

Finke on eine hotten seaten!

Volker Finke, a German of some renown brought in to seal the deal for Cameroon has been underwhelming since taking over in May, losing at Togo and drawing at Kinshasa. Fortunately, thanks to Togo fielding an ineligible player, they were awarded a victory and pushed to the top of the table while Togo was knocked out. Still, this isn't what the Indomitable Lions were expecting and Finke's neck may be on the line.

The same holds true for Libya's Abdulhafeedh Arbeesh, widely seen as a mere caretaker, Arbeesh has helped the Mediterranean Knights stay afloat in qualifying and they would be head of the table if not for Togo's ineligible player issue. A win will get Libya closer to qualifying for the World Cup than ever before, and despite reports of a new manager on the horizon, it would be hard to tell Arbeesh..."thanks for everything...now get out!"

The hardest thing about all of this is that no matter who wins this weekend, half of these managers will be stymied at the next level. Only 5 African teams will move on, and given the recent surge in success for localized African coaches it's hard not to hope that even more of them triumph than we might otherwise predict.

After the matches shake out on Sunday we'll bid a Happy Trails to those who are done and keep a weather eye out for the pairings for Round 3.

Starting XI: Lines from Fever Pitch that Capture a Futbol Fan's Existence

Though I think Nick Hornsby's book is more squarely focused on the comic tragedy of being a club supporter, I did think that these 11 lines were universal to all football fans. So I'll write them here as a way to kick start the month of September and include a brief explanation for each.

The game is omnipresent:
I. I have measured out my life in...fixtures, and any event of any significance has a footballing shadow. (p. 81)

It approaches an obsession:
II. We invest hours each day, months each year, years each lifetime in something over which we have no control; is it any wonder then, that we are reduced to creating ingenious but bizzarre liturgies [for good luck] designed to give us the illusion that we are powerful after all, just as every other primitive community has done when faced with a deep and apparently impenetrable mystery? (p. 111)

Defeats are a private pain...:

III. We are secretly convinced that none of the other fans understands quite why we have been harder hit than anyone else--we are forced to mourn in public, surrounded by people whose hurt is expressed in forms different from our own. (p. 109)

...that stem from a common deprivation:

IV. When our teams lose...we think of the colleagues and classmates we have to face on Monday morning, and of the delirium that has been denied us (p. 66)


But it remains inescapable:
V. It would be absurd to pretend that my allegiance was sorely tested: I never once thought of abandoning the team simply because they were incapable of beating anyone at all...After a while, when winning a game appeared to be an option that had somehow become impossible, we began to replace the satisfaction of winning: goals, draws, a brave performance in the face of overwhelmingly hostile fortune...these all became causes for quiet, if occasionally self-mocking celebration. (p. 150)

Largely because we simply love it for the sake of loving it
VI. It simply doesn't matter to me how bad things get, that results have nothing to do with anything. As I have implied before, I would like to be one of those people who treat their local team like their local restaurant and thus withdraw their patronage if they are being served up noxious rubbish. But unfortunately...there are many fans like me. For us, the consumption is all; the quality of the product is immaterial. (150)

And we know we are part of a broader community...

VII. It is true that most football fans do not have an Oxbridge degree; but then most football fans do not have a criminal record, or carry knives, or urinate in pockets, or get up to any of the things they are supposed to do. (p. 96)

A community that is both conscious and unconscious
VIII. I love...the fact that old girlfriends and other people you have lost touch with and will probably never see again are sitting in front of their TV set and thinking, momentarily but all at the same time [about you], and are happy or sad for [you]. Nobody else gets that, only us. (p. 195)

We live in our own world
IX. [Football] is not an escape, or a form of entertainment, but a different version of the world. (p. 164)

Where the potential of triumph is sheer bliss

X. I can recall nothing else that I have coveted for two decades (what else is there that can reasonably be coveted for that long?), nor can I recall anything else that I have desired as both man and boy. So please, be tolerant of those who describe a sporting moment as their best ever. We do not lack imagination, nor have we had sad and barren lives; it is just that real life is paler, duller, and contains less potential for unexpected delirium (p. 231)

And deeply personal
XI. The joy we feel on [championship winning] occasions...is not a celebration of others' good fortune, but a celebration of our own; and when there is a disastrous defeat the sorrow that engulfs us is, in effect, self-pity, and anyone who wishes to understand how football is consumed must realize this above all things. The players are merely our representatives, chosen by the manager rather than elected by us, but our representatives nonetheless....I am a part of this club, just as the club is a part of me; and I say this fully aware that the club exploits me, disregards my views, and treats me shoddily on occasions, so my feeling of organic connection is not built on a muddleheaded and sentimental understanding of how professional football works....This [championship belongs] to me [the fan] every bit as much as it [belongs to the players], and I worked every bit as hard as they did. The only difference between me and them is that I have put in more hours, more years, more decades than them, and so had a better understanding of the afternoon, a sweeter appreciation of why the sun still shines when I remember it. (p. 187)

Or to put all of that in one simple line:
Life isn't, and it never has been, a 2-0 home victory against the League leaders after a fish-and-chip lunch. (p. 52)

Random Thoughts on a Day of Random Friendlies

Turn on the tv and discover that, hey! The US is playing a friendly in Bosnia! What better time than this to write down a bunch of random thoughts about Soccer!! I can't promise they'll be brilliant or necessarily accurate...but they will be random.

*Every time I microwave a meal and walk away from a sporting event the opponent scores. These pork tacos better be tasty to make up for Bosnia's lead.

*They are.

*I never get fired up about Balkan state soccer...don't know why, maybe the consonants are intimidating.

*Another goal gets us to half-time...I'm guessing there's a Archduke Ferdinand joke on our horizon

*Thanks for proving me right Bob Ley.

*I'll always picture Alexei Lalas with a beehive on his chin.

*Is Mexico becoming the Guns 'n' Roses of North American Soccer? Filling arenas based totally on name recognition rather than any kind of talent?

*I feel like I should say something about Germany Paraguay, but all that comes to mind is: Nyah, nyah, nyah, nyah, nyah.

*I'd pay a large amount of money for an audio recording of Mario Balotelli and Pope Francis.

*Wonder if Pope Francis is mocking the cardinals because Argentina's winning.

*Seriously, we don't get to see Scotland's goal? STOP HIBERNIAN OPPRESSION!!

*Second half starts in the Snoozefest in Sarejevo! (Is what I would say if Don King promoted soccer matches)

*Isn't it sweet that Jozy Altidore shares the love with Eddie Johnson...well...sweet and dangerous for reproductive health.

*Dang, Altidore took Lalas' snark to heart, maybe we shall doubt him a little more...

*Oh c'mon Bosnia, you're a hardened, grizzly, Balkan nation...you don't need to flop about like a bankrupt Mediterranean nation.

*$#!T Altidore's an f'ing beast!! (These are the things that are said now, because Soccer's not mainstream)

*HOLY MOTHER!! A hat-trick?!? A hat-trick?!?! I feel increasingly like we need to genuflect to this man...oh wait...we should try the Lalas approach. "A hat trick and assist has to be expected for anyone who calls themselves a real man..."

*Maybe Bosnia's only mostly dead...after all, they are 13th in the world...unlucky 13th...

*Alright, I admit that this might be a gross overreaction to just one match. But if we can beat Bosnia IN Bosnia, we can beat Bosnia (and others) in Brazil...this would be heightened expectations.

*Suarez and Forlan have a bromace that makes Altidore and Johnson look like cruel rivals

*My high hopes for Japan are being dashed with each match (but my love of Keisuke Honda isn't.

*Chile toyed with Iraq in the box like an 8 year old plays with Tonka trucks

There you have it, I promised random thoughts and I delivered.

Starting XI: New Faces, New Places

With the club season about to kick off in earnest (notably in the Barclay's premiership which is the easiest league for Motnanans and other Americans to watch) I wanted to take a minute to review another Starting XI. This month, 11 players who will be on new teams in the Premiership this season and who will be trying to use that transfer spot to set themselves up for glory on an even bigger stage at next year's World Cup. (And because I feel like it, we'll run it as a 3-4-3 line up.)

I. Marteen Stekelenburg (GK--Netherlands/Fulham)
Growing in to Edwin Van Der Saar's ginormous shoes is a bit of a tricky business, but Stekelenburg more than rose to the occasion in South Africa. Limiting world class opposition to four goals from the run of play over seven matches. After a long career with Ajax he had a pair of disappointing years with Roma (finishing 6th and 7th, while finishing middle of the table in Goals allowed). Coming to the Premiership, he'll hope for a stronger showing to set up a Dutch team that's very close to qualifying.

II. Fernando Amorebieta (D--Venezuela/Fulham)

Amorebieta is an unusual story. He nearly got a cap with La Furia Roja before joining his home land in Venezuela. With an impeccable sense of timing, he scored the lone goal in La Vinotino's first every qualifier win over L'Albiceleste [Argentina]. It could be a bit of a wrench going from Craven Cottage in London back and forth to South American qualifiers, and as a relatively inexperienced player he may not be asked to. But with Venezuela tied with Uruguay for fifth place, and matches coming up against the bottom three teams in the table could give them a great opportunity to try Fernando out before next summer--a summer he'd get to spend in Brazil if he's in form.

III. Dejan Lovren (D--Croatia/Southhampton)

Like Croatia itself, Lovren has been flying under the radar for a little while, particularly as his playing time has steaily decreased with Olympique Lyonnais (though he did see action in Europe). Meanwhile, the Croats have soared as high as third in the world and are guaranteed a spot in at least the playoffs (with Belgium cruising ahead of them, they may need it). Now with the Saints aspiring to stay clear of the relegation spots, Lovren's play ought to help steady a shaky defense.

IV. Razvan Rat (D--Romania/West Ham United)

Rat is the strongest stalwart in Romania's defense, and as the Tricolorii sit in third place of Group D, they're going to need some strong defense to have a shot at passing either Hungary or Holland. Luckily they'll be playing at home for 3 of their final 4 matches (and they'll be facing bottom feeders Turkey, Estonia and Andorra once each). If Rat can stand up to Premiership talent he'll easily stand up to those three countries.

V. Paulinhio (MF--Brazil/Tottenham)
Moving into the more high profile transfers, Paulinhio's squad is already booked into the World Cup (hosting it has its perks after all). With 17 caps and a stellar showing at this years Confederations Cup Paulinhio is pretty secure in his spot on the Finals squad...provided he avoids injury, and since he'll be playing for Tottenham and their accursed luck, that might take some doing.

VI. Jesus Navas (MF--Spain/Manchester City)
Speaking of Confederation Cup revelations (at least to the non-club-scene footie fan), Navas served as Spain's supersub during the tournament and was a instrumental in getting them into the finals (sure they got smoked by Brazil in the finals, but that's beside the point). Now with Man City, Navas has the chance to establish himself as a topflight midfielder in advance of La Furia Roja's title defense (assuming they can get in ahead of France)


VII. Emanuele Giaccherini (MF--Italy/Sunderland)
With Italy in good position to qualify ahead of Bulgaria in Group B, Giaccherini main goal will be to help the Black Cats stay in the first division (alongside fellow international additions Jozy Altidore [US] and David Molberg Kaarlson [Sweden]). As the only Confederations Cup cap winner to play outside of Italy, the more Giaccherini helps Sunderland, the more he helps himself stay in the starting line-up.

VIII. Aleksander Tonev (MF--Bulgaria/Aston Villa)

Bulgaria's fallen a long way since Hirsto Stoichkov's heroics saw them finish fourth in 1994, but they're back in contention this time around sitting at second in their group with four matches left to go. Tonev, who racked up a hat-trick against Malta earlier in qualifying, isn't yet a lock to be selected for the final squads, but shows a level of promise that other Bulgarian's haven't. If Tonev can help one group of Lions he'll be better positioned to help another. ('Cause they're both nicknamed the Lions, get it?)


IX. Wilfried Bony (F--Ivory Coast/Swansea)
Heir to the throne of Didier Drogba, Wilfried's move to the Welsh club puts him in position to match up with fellow Elephants strikers Aroune Kone (Everton) and Gervinho (Arsenal). Right now, Bony's young enough and inexperienced enough to rank as a fourth or fifth option up top (behind Kone, Gervinho, Solomon Kolou, and Drogba provided he's fit and has a pulse). Still, Bony's got three goals in qualifying and should have a shot at some action when Ivory Coast sets up its final qualifying home-and-away in October.

X. Stefan Jovetic (F--Montenegro/Manchester City)
Another addition to the Sky Blues (alongside Jesus Navas), Jovetic has a slightly more awkward position in the Premiership. Play well and he might be instrumental in this year's race for the title. Play well and he might well help Montenegro qualify for their first World Cup only 7 years after becoming an independent national side...of course, if that happens, he might leave England's national team on the outside looking in. (Keep an eye on the October 11th match at Wembley to see if he's a golden boy or a goat)


XI. Andre Schurrle (F--Germany/Chelsea)
Schurrle's youth and promise make him seem, for all the world, like the future of German striking. Of course the present of German striking is already pretty good (with Miroslav Klose, Lukas Podolski and Mario Gomez). Still, the chance to refine his skill in the best European League with one of the best European clubs gives Schurrle a great opportunity to position himself as a serious contender for a spot off the bench for a team that makes World Cup Semifinals with as much blase consistency as it makes loans to EU neighbors.

So there's the 11 men to keep an eye on as the premiership gets started this month. And with any luck, they'll be 11 to keep an eye on through next June as well.

Who's cheating now?

If there's one thing I love about FIFA it's how long they wait before announcing that someone has done something wrong.

No...wait...that bugs me.

Turns out that two CAF teams who thought they were set for the playoff rounds will be playing meaningful games when the final match day (September 7th) rolls around.

The hardest hit goes to Ethiopia which might be the best story of African qualifying so far. The Black Lions have been trying to qualify since November 2011, when they needed a play-in home-and-away with Somalia just to get to the group stage. Only two teams from the play-in games still have a chance to qualify.

While Ethiopia looked to have qualified at the end of June after a pair of victories over South Africa and Botswana, they now have only one victory?

Sometimes it's okay to watch
from the bench Minyahile

How you might ask?


Apparently, the Ethiopian team and head coach Sewnet Bishaw forgot the whole "two yellow cards requires a game suspension" rule, and nobody thought to remind them of it during the whole course of the playing the game. So Minyahile Teshome Beyene, we hope you enjoyed playing that day, because it's suddenly made group A competitive again.

Yes, now Botswana and South Africa are alive and in the hunt for the next round. Fortunately, Ethiopia still tops their group and since the Zebras and Bafana Bafana are playing each other next, the Black Lions just need a better result against bottom feeding C.A.R. and they'll be in to the next round.

Emilio scoffs at article 55

Meanwhile Equitorial Guinea forfeiting their recent win against Cape Verde doesn't mean much...to Equitorial Guinea. They were last before, they are last now. Emilo Nsue Lopez (he of the joint Equitorian/Spanish citizenship) and Equitorial Guinea violated article 55 paragraph 1 (the most important paragraph of all article 55), so what was a 2-1 loss, becomes a 3-0 loss.


Again, big woop for Equitorial Guinea, but somewhat of a big woop for Cape Verde who sees their goal differential go from plus 3 to plus 5. Still, since they play group leading Tunisia in September, it's still win or go home for the Blue Sharks. (And actually, since they're playing in Rades, Tunisia it will more likely be win, lose or draw AND go home).

So congrats to Cape Verde, Botswana and South Africa...your dreams live again. And tough luck to Ethiopia here's hoping your little faux pas doesn't cost you a trip to Brazil.

(please note that the happy trails post has been updated to reflect these changes)

Lessons from the Confederations Cup: 3 On/3 Off

Later today my wife and I will fly off for England and Scotland. My dreams of seeing a premier league match are not to be met (it's July after all) but I've got fingers crossed that we'll find some footy entertainment somewhere. Until we return, here's this post.

Inside of a year to go until the World Cup in Brazil, there are very few chances left to get any real sense of who can or will do well next June. And while it might still be way too early to make any kind of assumptions or conclusions about good, bad and i-between, it's also way to quiet this summer to ignore it.


So here's another in the oft-forgotten 3 On/3 Off series where we identify 3 positives and 3 less-than positives from a major tournament.

3 On

Neymar (2nd from R) That's my next haircut!
(cdn3.news.co.nz)

1. Neymar is every bit as good as advertised. The run up to this tournament was all about the youngster from Mogi das Cruces. Would he be the million dollar man Barcelona thought he was? Would he be another case of dynamic youngster out of his depth in international competition? Would he have an ugly hair cut? The answers, as we all know now, are yes, no and yes. His fluidity and inventive style of play clearly justify the faith of the millions in green and gold throughout Brazil, and even make me pause before I comment on the soggy tea cozy atop his head. With a more than competent ally up front in Fred and an increasingly confident set of backs shoring up the defense, Brazil is officially back.
2. Only fools doubt Spain. We're all a little desperate for some drama in international soccer, so the stories have begun: Spain is getting older. Spain is getting tired. Spain is too unsure of the next generation. Pbbt on all of that. Spain is every bit the well-oiled, soul-crushing machine they have ever been, and while there have been brief spurts of teams like Nigeria and Italy looking ominous in their own end, once La Furia Roja gets control in midfield it's all over but the crying. And even despite the final drubbing at the hands of the Selacao, they still have to be deemed favorites
3. Dilma Roussef and the Brazilian Government is very smart.  Here's a little lesson for all future cup hosts: if you spend billions of dollars on a bunch of fancy pants stadia built to sell Pepsi and Hyundai to the world and then ask average citizens to pay more for things like busses or schools, be prepared for citizens to get pissed. Better still, let them be pissed. Let the march. Let them demonstrate. Let them exercise their rights as citizens. And make absolutely sure that Pepsi and Hyundai execs ride the bus at least once or twice. That's the way to be a modern nation where disagreement does not equal destabilization (hint hint Egypt/Turkey)

3 Off

"Why do my teeth hurt? Could it be all that biting of opponents?"
(adammjohnston.wordpress.com via SBNation)

1. Luis Suarez is a jerk...maybe without a future. It really doesn't fail does it. Luis Suarez shows up on the pitch and the dander of anyone who roots for Ghana, or for Patrice Evra, or for just--you know--not biting people, gets their dander up. Luis Suarez has tremendous talent, but won't ever be a global favorite when his behavior makes him seem like a crazy man's Diego Maradona (yeah...that's pretty crazy). But with Uruguay in 5th place in Conmebol qualifying, with Diego Forlan aging rapidly, with Edinson Cavani alternating hot and cold, and with la Celeste's defense folding against top flight scorers like a Tide commercial soccer mom, there's no guarantee that he'll get to bring his madness back next summer...please, oh please...let's go everybody else in South America.
2. Expect more disappointment in Asia, Africa, North America and Oceania. As major supporters of the minnows of international soccer, our biggest disappointment in watching the Confederations Cup was the utter destruction of anything not from Europe or South America. Worse still, with the exception of Tahiti, these are teams that ought to represent the best of their continents. Yet Japan came way with nothing, Mexico slightly more than nothing (but even more scorn and derision from pundits), and Nigeria came away with the standard issue victory over Tahiti and a solid half against Spain. These are not the most promising signs of greater parity in the global game. Drat.
3. Hold off on that Hulk reboot. It's okay Disney, you can shed a tear over soccer. Admit it, it was too good to be true: your most successful tv station (ESPN) is all geared up to lovingly ogle Brazilian futbol, and perhaps the most ogle-able Brazilian player is named "Hulk"after a character in your most successful film franchise (Marvel comics). You could practically hear the keyboards rattling off spec scripts in Malibu coffee shops where Mark Ruffalo meanders down by Ipanema bumping into the staggering striker in a winking little aside. Then the Zenit St. Petersburg man went and underwhelmed us all (not unlike the Hulk movies themselves), next year's a long way away, but Disney's cross-platform synergy is on the verge of sputtering out.

NEW FEATURE: Starting XI

It's time for me to do something else new and different. In an effort to make sure there are some regular posts I'll try posting a list of 11 things that catch my attention or mean something special or just make me giggle. What better way to start out than with something that ties together two of my favorite sports passions: futbol and baseball.

I'll Buy This
(mwillis.com)

XI Reasons Being a Baseball Fan Makes it Easy to Be a Soccer Fan (and vice-versa)

I. Under the surface strategy: Don't get me wrong, a well placed 3 run homer or penalty kick is all well and good, but more often than not it's not what you see happening on the ball, it's what's happening away from it that matters. Did the outfielders really leave the left field line open for Joe Mauer? Did you see how Asamoah Gyan made that run to the back post? Totally drew the defenses attention away from Dede Ayew. There's always something more to see than what you see.

II. Minimal interruptions: The best games of baseball simply roll through, pitchers working quickly, catches made or missed, hits and walks building into rallies and sides swapping chances one after another. The same is true in soccer: passes and movements flowing seamlessly up and down the pitch for forty-five minutes at a time without a single commercial break. Sometimes there have to be bullpen bucket brigades, sometimes there's an obnoxious array of feigned injuries that eat up valuable time...but at their best the only thing that matters is playing the game.

III. Players pay their dues: Both baseball and soccer have baby-faced phenoms who soar into view out of nowhere and take the world by storm (your Mike Trouts and Neymars, for example). But even the young bucks have to work their way up to the top: through Clearwater and Round Rock  and Scranton until you get to Yankee Stadium or battling through Eindhoven and Valencia en route to London. But at the top levels of the game there are both phenoms and well seasoned vets who arrived at this stage through dedication and perseverance.

Cobb and Maradona would be best friends...after they killed each other

IV. Body types are no bar: Speaking of dedication and perseverance, you don't watch soccer or baseball with the sense that they are totally different than you. Take the top 5 baseball players of all time (by WAR [excluding Barry *Human Asterix* Bonds]: Ruth, Young, W. Johnson, Mays and Cobb). Their slightly taller than average (5'10" [Mays] to 6'2 [Johnson], and range from 170 pounds (Cobb) to 220 (Ruth), unlike the sky scraping NBA's top 5 (by PER: Jordan, James, O'Neal, Chamberlain and Robinson--all over 6'6") or the NFLs (by AVV: Favre, Rice, Manning, White and Lewis--all over 200 lbs, [minus Rice its 220]). Soccer players have a similar everyman quality about them--with the one exception that none of them had Ruth's hot dogs and beer diet--but world renowned names like Pele, Maradona, Johann Cruyff and Franz Beckenbauer are all under 6 feet. Helping you dream that just maybe you could do it too.

V. Whole new world of statistical analysis: While I've often been accused of being a numbers-averse, story heavy fan/writer, I absolutely appreciate well employed statistical analysis. And increasingly Soccer has started using advanced stats with serious foresight. Added into a vocabulary full of BABIP and VORP comes PS% (Pass Success %) and ADW (Aerial Duels Won). Heck, FIFA even sold naming rights to a statistic to Castrol! So as someone who appreciates their affectionate nerdery with a dash of numbers, it's an ideal situation.

VI. Long Season as an Asset: Part of the reason statistical analysis works so well in baseball and increasingly in soccer is the sheer size of the season, you can be confident that you're getting a good sample size with six months worth of games. Better still, you get to know players and story lines as they develop, and you also get a sense that every game counts because pennants are a badge of honor in baseball (and one of the only ways into the playoffs) and they are the whole kit and caboodle in futbol. While soccer does have a variety of in-season tournaments (an idea I floated on my own baseball blog), there's a great deal to savor in every game, no matter where you stand.

Admire the honesty

VII. Loyalty rewarded: Being a fan requires loyalty, sincerity and pride of purpose. It seems a little silly to non-fans that you care so much about a group of men you'll never meet, and yet you really come to feel like you live with and for the players you watch every day, cheering on their successes and screaming over their failures. And in the end there are players who want to be every bit as loyal to their fans and their adopted home as the fans are to them, which is why Jim Thome tears up in Minnesota, and why Mario Balotelli still wants to play for Italy, no matter what obscenities some people throw his way.

VIII. Front office strategy galore: Loyalty is great, but for many fans, winning is better. So I have to appreciate the cajoling, conniving and various intricacies of altering a roster to make your team better. It's not just Terry Ryan's trade talks, it's the waiver wire watching and the AAA call-ups. That's not an option in a lot of other sports, but it is in soccer. Twice a year ownership groups go on spending sprees that would make the worst shopaholics blanche. They scour the globe for the best talents and drop a dime or two to bring them aboard (50 M seems to be the going rate for the best scorers these days). But that's not all...there's a raft of players in youth development programs itching for a call-up and rigorous competition among players already on the team striving to unseat one another. What will happen and where and with whom? Half the fun is that the hot-stove season never really ends.

Pretty awesome
(Hurriyet Daily News)

IX. Female fans, not objects: With three boys and a boy-at-heart, my mother might seem to care about sports out of self defense, but she really worried about the hole in Delmon Young's swing, the Viking's doomed defensive schemes, Wolves' missed passes and, of course, offsides traps. But she rolls her eyes every time football and basketball cameras zoom in on bouncing/bouyant cheerleaders, and she brought me up to do the same. Look around a baseball stadium and you find no cheerleaders or spirit squads, just women in the stands bemoaning bad middle relief or celebrating good plate discipline. The same thing holds true on soccer terraces (possibly because women in the US play the game at an elite international level), where every well paced pass and deflected shot are cause for joy or alarm. I don't think cheerleaders are evil...but I know I'd rather be around women who know and love the game they're watching.

X. Low scoring: This might be even less American than saying, I feel weirded out having eye candy cheerleaders shoved in my face. I like low scoring contests. I like it when runs or goals come at a premium rather than in a bundle, because it encourages you to relish every opportunity you get. It also highlights that, though you may fail, persistence is it's own reward. 

XI. Sweet satisfaction in toppling the almighty: One of the things that goes hand-in-hand with low scoring affairs, is that anyone can be beaten at any time. The Yankees may spend more than the gross national product of Belize, but scrape together a few runs and they can be beaten. Manchester City may drop more hundred dollar bills than Montgomery Burns taking out the trash, but sneak a late goal and they too can be beaten. It feels great to be a Twins fan when the pin-stripers are scratching their heads in dismay, and equally great when Watford unseats City (or, on a global scale--when the plucky old stars and stripes shocks England/Spain or any one of a host of European Goliaths).

It's easy to love sports. And when you love these things, it's easy to share the love between two great games.

Drat you legal copyrights! I want to buy this!!
(mwillis.com)

I'm looking forward to visiting the birthplace of one great game, and to a great year of both games.

Happy Trails #119-92

Editors Note, rather than go back and fix ALL the numbers of ALL the Happy Trails posts, please note that while I started counting down from #207, I neglected to include two numbers who should be much higher--South Sudan (who is a FIFA Member but didn't exist when qualifying spots were drawn) and Mauritania who just slipped my mind. So we'll pick up our countdown of eliminated nations at 119.

The summer would be the ideal time to have a bunch of World Cup Qualifiers, and indeed, the last three weeks have seen action across the planet from Sydney, Australia to Sandy, Utah. But with all that exciting, amazing action, there's also a lot of disappointing, soul-crushing defeat.

So let's say farewell to those teams who saw their dreams die. And, in an effort to lessen the number of teams I have to write about when qualifying concludes in November, I'll include teams eliminated in regions that still have matches left. As part of my on going war against European-entitlement, I'll include UEFA teams first (since they've played the fewest rounds) and teams in their second or fourth rounds later on.


#119--Ciao, San Marino
Why They Lost: You mean besides the fact that they have a smaller population than Butte? Probably the fact that they have 1 win in 118 national team matches.
What We'll Miss: Europe's WIBD contender doesn't have a whole lot to hang their hat on...but they do have an Olympic Stadium! No...wait...it's just a high school stadium

#118--Farvel, Faroe Islands
Why They Lost: Largely because they are stuck playing Kazakhstan (2-0-0 all time against them) at the end of qualification, thereby denying them any chance to build momentum.
What We'll Miss: The opportunity to learn exactly how to type all the different accented o's in Fróði Benjaminsen or Hans Jørgensen

#117-- Tioraidh, Scotland
Why They Lost: To put it simply: Scottish football has fallen on hard times. Maybe I'm not cheering hard enough. Maybe there's too much upheaval and inconsistency in the management. Maybe the Tartan Army's gone too soft. Maybe none of the best athletes are going to football,  maybe they need a better training program, a better league. Or maybe we just all need to drink some more...yeah, that'll make it better.
What We'll Miss: Way back in the day, Scotland wore what they called "the Rosebury colors". Last worn 60 years ago, it's high time for a revival, don't you think?


#116 Fo Tuma Du, The Gambia
Why They Lost: Back to back three-nil defeats at the hands of Ivory Coast crushed their spirits and their goal differential. 
What We'll Miss: Brazil nuts are one of their major exports! Think of the tariff wars had they made the tournament and brought their Brazil nuts to Brazil...home of the nut itself!! (Still you can see three national team players: Sanna Nyassi, Abdoulie Mansally, and Mamdou Dansou ply their trade in the MLS)

#115 Lesali Sesihamba, Zimbabwe

The chicken would be a better Preisdent
than Robert Mugabe.

Why They Lost: It might be the chronically under experienced side (18 Caps is the most for anyone on the current national team roster). Or it might be because Egypt and Guinea are too strong a set of opponents. But I'm going to say it's because Robert Mugabe's a total knob who has driven his country into the depths of hyper-inflation, human rights abuses and despotic tyranny, lining his own pockets while citizens (including footballers) suffer. Yup. I blame Robert Mugabe. Why? (Because he's a tool and I have the freedom to say so...don't like it Bobby? Come and get me...psst, Morgan Transveri...then you can take power and hold free elections! It's fool proof!)
What We'll Miss: More Mugabe-bashing, plus the chance to analyze if Defender Felix Chindungwe's form will translate to his home team: Chicken Inn FC!

#114 Tsamayng Hantle Lesotho
Why They Lost: As we said in our profile of Lesotho there's not a whole lot of veteran presence to guide and support the young talents like Litsepe Marabe....also ceding 7 goals to Ghana really didn't help.
What We'll Miss: The "Well-I'll-Be-Darned" Minnow to watch for this round, the Crocodiles of Lesotho are yet another cinderella story gone awry. Then again...if a bunch of singing dancing mice helped Lesotho make the world cup, FIFA would probably investigate.

#113 M'asselema, Sudan

Saif Eldin Ali Maswai
Cocking an eyebrow at FIFA
rules like a boss

Why They Lost: In their second match, Sudan fielded Saif Eldin Ali Maswai and beat Zambia 2-0...however Mr. Ali-Maswai was ineligible to play (no idea why) so the result was reversed, Sudan sank to the bottom of the standings and hasn't risen again (equally intriguing, Zambia has a one point edge over Ghana--my adopted African home--and may eliminate the 2010 Quarterfinalists based on Sudan's misstake)
What We'll Miss: It would have been nice for the war-torn region of Africa to have a little joy on the pitch...but it would have made President/Chronic-Human-Rights-Abuser Omar Al-Bashir happy too...so...they can deal with the disappointment


#112 Adeus, Mozambique
Why They Lost: Os Mambas don't have quite as much of an international presence as their fellow fellow former colonies (Brazil and Angola), maybe midfielder Telhino can rouse his fellow U-25s into a stronger cohort
What We'll Miss: Crazy big scrabble points when using "Mozambique" (two 10 point letters and long enough to hit at least one double word score? SWEET)

#111 Murabeho, Rwanda
Why They Lost: Rwanda is split between two generations the old, experienced hands who've been localized players for the past decade or so, and the young up-and-comers who led the Wasps to the U-17 World Cup two years ago, and have been snatched up by clubs in Turkey, Belgium, France and England. This cup was likely preparation to pass off the torch to what may be a coming golden generation in Rwanda.
What We'll Miss: Seriously, one of the greatest most inspiring football stories in Africa in the last decade. Children of militia members and children of refugees playing alongside each other for their country. That's cool.

#110 Sai Watarana, Niger

Amadou Moutari

Why They Lost: The Menas were rather ineffective, scoring one goal in five matches. Their point totals are artificially inflated by an awarded victory over Gabon (3-0), take that away and they're -9.
What We'll Miss: A recent run of success in Nations' Cups makes Niger look like a rising talent, particularly midfielder Amadou Moutari, who at 19 is already on board with Le Mans in the French Ligue 1.

#109 Gue Ngozi, Central African Republic
Why They Lost: The Wild Beasts started out strong with a two-nil win over Botswana and then collapsed, dropping four straight matches to Ethiopia, South Africa and Botswana again.
What We'll Miss: Speaking of Le Mans and talented African athletes, the squad that nurtured Didier Drogba has two CAR players on their main squad: Hilaire Momi and Fernander Kassai...if you want a glimpse of Africa's talent...maybe we should just all watch Le Mans

#108 Kwaherini, Kenya
Why They Lost: For the Harambee Stars it was famine or moderately portioned meal. Throughout qualification they would draw or lose but never got a shot to win. Only once did they have the lead in a match (against the Nigerian Super Eagles), but taking the lead and keeping it were two different things. 
What We'll Miss: The Harambee spirit of Kenya is pretty much the soul of fair play and decency. Of course I don't think Spain's going to change their motto to "everyone for themselves"...so we'll just cheer fair play abstractly rather than specifically.

#107 Later, Liberia

Why They Lost: George Weah continues to stubbornly refuse attempts at a comeback. Come on, Georgie boy! You're just 46!

What We'll Miss: Awkward conversations between a triumphantly returning George Weah and political rival/Nobel prize winning president Ellen Johnson Sirleaf

#106 A bientot, Togo

Why They Lost: Emmanuel Adebayor is not George Weah. 
What We'll Miss: Imagining a band called Adebayor and the Pips.

Eat Your Heart out Expos

#105 Bo yi bo wa, Benin
Why They Lost: It's a good idea to stay loose and fresh between national team matches (hence Spain's dominance), but Benin only gets together when they have a qualifier to play. A 9 month lay-off between a draw with Rwanda and two tilts with Algeria might not have been the best idea.
What We'll Miss: The classy old school 70's federation logo that combines letters and ball into one cohesive whole: like the old Montreal Expos, only still in existence

I should be a coach...

#104 Enda Nawa, Angola
Why They Lost: Like the aforementioned Harambee Stars, the Sable Antelopes could not find the finishing stroke to triumph in matches, only to earn draws in them...maybe more time playing Mortal Kombat would help...
What We'll Miss: The end of Angola's golden generation that took them to the World Cup in Germany. 8 years on, most of the young guns are nearing retirement, and four years from now they DEFINITELY will be close to done.


#103 Nangalapo Nawa, Namibia
Why They Lost: The Namibians squandered their chance to play spoiler in group F. With big matches against Malawi and Nigeria these past two weeks they could only muster a pair of draws. Quite a shame
What We'll Miss: The surprisingly minimalist Namibian style.  The modest logo (a sun with a soccerball), the simple/honest slogan (Bringing People's Game to People), the nickname (Brave Warriors). Kind of a change of pace from all the other stuff out there.

Teodoro Obiang imprisons
dissidents...and his smile

#102 Magha, Equatorial Guinea
Why They Lost: Group B was a case of Tunisia and everybody else. The Nzalang Nacional couldn't put together much of anything away from the friendly confines Nueva Estadio de Malabo, and even there it was just one goal wins. 
What We'll Miss: Adding Teodoro Obiang to our list of dictators we like to make fun of....even though he's apparently an ally.


#101 Nain Dat, Sierra Leone
Why They Lost: The little known Kanye West Jinx, wherein any nation called out in a Kanye West song is doomed to 20 years of failure...
What We'll Miss: Hearing national team players swap stories of their club teams (the squad is flung from Kansas City to Tajikistand and from Sweden to Cyprus and Ghana to China).

#100 Tutaonana, Tanzania
Why They Lost: Not being able to play every match at home put a definite crimp in the Taifa Stars game plan (they won two matches at home and dropped every thing on the road)
What We'll Miss: Forward Mrishio Ngassa is easily the lion of the Tanzanian side. At just 24 he has 21 goals in 74 caps. Fingers crossed for his continued success.

#99 Tikala Milamu, Congo DR
Why They Lost: A three match goalless drought in this years qualifying matches has been a little disappointing for the Leopards whose three points helped but didn't give them a real shot at progression.
What We'll Miss: The chance to use world cup qualifiers as a means to effect a cease fire in a perpetually war torn area....oh and to bring up Mobutu Sese Seko...the most amusingly named dictator of all time.


#98 Khanbiafo, Mali
Why They Lost: Inability to defend home turf. Despite two big wins on the road in Rwanda and at home against Algeria, they could only eke out draws against bottom feeders Benin and Rwanda at home.
What We'll Miss: Arguably the best mix of experienced talent and young up-and-comers in this batch of eliminated teams. The recent national team debuts of four U-25 talents based in England, France and Italy bodes well (as does the nurturing forces of 30 year old talents in the same leagues)

Great outfit for Morocco's heat

#97 Lla yhennik, Morocco
Why They Lost: Remember when Morocco made 3 out of four world cups from '86 to '98...yeah, they do too...but to paraphrase Rick Pitino: "Mustapha Hadji isn't walking out here folks, Nourradine Naybet's not gonna walk through that door..."
What We'll Miss: Dropping the team nickname that seems at once epic and Ayn Randian "The Lions of Atlas"

#96 Ungesege, Guinea
Why They Lost: The National Elephants were head and shoulders above two other teams in their group. Controlling pretty much everything against Zimbabwe and managing points in both matches against Mozambique. But...well...Egypt dominated everyone, winning every one of their games. 
What We'll Miss: After 4 attempted/completed coups since 2008 it seemed like there might be some good news for Guinea this year...fingers cross we can talk about more positive results in future

#95 'Illa-liqaa, Lebanon

Ramez Dayoub...we were happy too
(Yahoo images)

Why They Lost: Terminally under-ranked, the mighty cedars of Lebanon soldiered their way through qualifying across Asia, from Bangladesh through Kuwait and UAE and into the last stage of qualifying. And while a 3-0 blemish against South Korea marred an otherwise strong first half of the campaign (that took them primarily on the road) losing to Qatar, Uzbekistan and finally plummeting to a 4-0 to an Iranian team they had beaten 9 months before.
What We'll Miss: A truly great story that was our first Minnow-to-Watch to keep us watching.

#94 Fiiman Illaah, Iraq
Why They Lost: It was likely a little much to ask the Lions of Mesopotamia to beat Japan and Australia, but initial draws with Jordan and Oman held a promising possibility, just beat them in your second legs and you would have the third spot sewn up. It worked against Jordan...not so much against Oman.
What We'll Miss: It might be nice to hear "O Victorious Baghdad" again...a nice tune you can dance to!

Always remains High, O Victorious Baghdad, (تضلي دايما فوق، منصورة يا بغداد)

And to see your eternal Glory, O Victorious Baghdad. (ونشوف عزج دوم، منصورة يا بغداد)

O Victorious Baghdad, O Victorious Baghdad, (منصورة يا بغداد، منصورة يا بغداد)

#93 Salaam, Qatar
Why They Lost: The Maroon were perpetually forced to play teams that were not Lebanon. If they could just keep playing the Cedars they would still be undefeated...ah well.
What We'll Miss: Not much, with Qatar due to host the World Cup in 9 years, we're well assured of many, many, MANY more jokes at their expense in the decade to come.

#92 Allah yisallimak, Oman
Why They Lost: The Red Warriors were in prime position, needing a draw, just a draw, in Jordan and they would have third place all to themselves. The first half fit the bill, until Ahmed Hayel Ibrahim spoiled the party in the 57th minute to give Jordan the win and end Oman's dream. 

What We'll Miss: Mocking international ruiner of a manager: Paul Le Guen...who will be the lucky team foiled by him next? Honduras? Austria? We're dying to know!

With that it's Happy Trails to all, with hopefully a few more posts between now and the next round of eliminated sucka-dogs in September.

In it...but win it? #2 Australia, South Korea, Iran

We're ready to continue our look at teams that have qualified for the 2014 World Cup, by analyzing their chances as quickly as possible, thereby removing all responsibility for doing things well.

Qualifier #3 Australia
Contender Credentials: The Socceroos have quietly become one of the most consistent teams in the Asian Football Confederation. Building off a trip to Germany in 2006 (their last year in the Oceania Confederation), they have now made three-straight World Cups. Furthermore, the power of local players has become increasingly apparent as long serving national team members continue plying their trade in the top divisions of Europe, and increasingly do so along side well regarded younger players (24 year olds [GK] Mitchell Langerak, [F] Robbie Kruse and [MF] Tom Rogic).

Pretender Problems: Though heavily favored to qualify, Australia was totally lack luster in the first several rounds of qualifying matches, mustering just 1 in in 6 tries (though they did earn points in all their others). It's hard to imagine a team threatening the best in the world when they struggle with Oman as much as the Aussies did. Add in that favored veterans like goalie Mark Schwarzer are nearing 40 and the power house looks more like the old age home.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: The Aussies were playing it cool in the early go, but now are a force to be reckoned with, and with familiar hands helping the newbies they shock the world en route to the semis, while the lousy Kiwis stay home.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Worse than their qualifying campaign, one rank outsider beats them like an old didjeridoo while New Zealand shockingly makes the knockout stages.
Prediction: A few stellar showings marred by inability to finish the job leaves them just outside of the knockout stage--3rd in their group.

Qualifier #4 Iran
Contender Credentials: Over the last two decades Iran has had a familiar pattern--qualify, fail to qualify, qualify, fail to qualify. Though even in their failures they often come heartbreakingly close. They head to the tournament next year with coaching golden(ish) boy Carlos Quieroz at the helm, a man who led South Africa and Portugal to the Mondiale before doing the same for Team Melli and is as doggedly loyal and supportive of Iran in general as your friendly neighborhood Imam. Under Quieroz they have perhaps the most fearsome defense in Asia, ceding just two goals in the last round of qualification.

Pretender Problems: Ceding two goals was nearly two goals too many as Iran was tied with Qatar for third place coming into the month, only a startling offensive outburst from Standard Leige's Reza Ghoochannejhad boosted them in (largely on the back of a 4-0 romp over Lebanon). Iran also has a habit of promoting players attuned to the local political philosophy rather than those who are really really good (hence Ali Daei's 100+ caps...though his 100+ goals also have something to do with that).

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Slotted in a group with decadent westerners (and Israel) Iran crushes them all; then they do the same through the knock out stages until decimating the U.S. 10-0 in the final [this fantasy brought to you directly from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's brain]
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Quieroz implodes (as he is want to do) the goals dry up and all the players start drinking, swearing and saying provocative things like: "hey, whatever people want to do is cool with me, live and let live I always say" [this nightmare brought to you directly from Ayatollah Khameni's brain]
Prediction: The defense is not as effective on the world stage as it is in Asia and a dearth of goals (another Quieroz trademark), Iran finishes bottom of their group. But the players remain good muslims, inshallah [this dose of reality brought to you by everyone not named Mahmoud Ahmadinejad/Ayatollah Khameni]


Qualifier #5 South Korea
Contender Credentials: The fourth and final member of Asia's elite four teams: South Korea may have been playing the game the longest (assuming you count chuk-guk, which you should...if only for the name). They have a World Cup streak that might just shame the rest of the continent, having been to every Mondiale since 1986 (That's 8 straight to 3 for Australia and 5 for bitter rivals: Japan). Finally they offer perhaps the best developed and organized talent nurturing program on the continent, with national team fixtures (like Park-ji Sung) gladly making way for younger talents (like Son Heung-Min) that all routinely play in the top flight of international competition.

Pretender Problems: Chuk-guk is not futbol, and players who qualified in 1986 will not be taking the field in Brazil next summer. And for a talented team, the Taeguk Warriors sure didn't look like one in their final matches, as (on their home soil mind you) they needed an own goal to get past Uzbekistan and lost 1-0 to Iran. An onslaught of goals in Takshent nearly put the Uzbeks through and sent South Korea to the dread play-in...a pretty mighty fall from grace for a team that was on top of the group heading into last week.

Pie-in-the-Sky Scenario: Fueled by dynamic young talent, South Korea plays their most fluid style of futbol reminding everyone why they are the top talent in Asia and top their fourth place finish in 2002 by a solid three spots.
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: The far flung players in Europe are worn out when they have to trudge to Asia for training and thence to South America for competition, finishing with three losses...meanwhile Japan wins the tournament and taunts Korea with it across sea, while North Korea takes their failure as a sign of weakness and attacks.
Prediction: Some underperforming European side [*cou{HOLLAND}gh!*] comes apart in their group and the Warriors capitalize to make their second straight appearance in the round of 16.

Waning Seconds: ASIA UPDATE!

A few weeks ago we ran down how every Asian team still had a chance to qualify for the world cup.

Yeah...that's not so much the case any more.

So here now is a run down on how it can play out tomorrow as three more tickets are punched for Brazil and one serious squabble is set for September.

First Match

Yup...it's adorable

Australia plays Iraq in Sydney in the first game of the day. The Iraqis must be disappointed not to parlay recent AFC success into a World Cup bid, but they could always settle for ruining the Socceroos day.

A win for Australia sees them straight to Brazil, anything less and they have to stay up late to see what happens between Oman and Jordan

Group A Simulcast

The most thrilling part of qualification is playing right in the midst of another match that could just as easily determine your destiny. That's the situation for South Korea, Iran and Uzebekistan (Qatar too...but they were left in the dust on the last match day so a four way battle is out of the question).

South Korea's goal is simplest. Get a point at home against Iran and you're going down South America way. Having won all their home tilts so far this campaign it seems likely.

Jon Snow is rooting for Uzbekistan

If South Korea does win, Uzbekistan can make history by winning their own match and vaulting the White Wolves into their first ever World Cup. But if they draw or lose, they'll have to face the third place finisher in Group B for the chance to face the fifth place team in South America for a spot in Brazil.

And, then again, Iran can screw everything up (after all, it is Iran). A win and they're in. A Uzbekistan draw or loss, and they're in. But if Iran wins mightily (like they did against Lebanon) and Uzbekistan wins mightily, then South Korea crashes down to third place. OR, if Iran draws and Uzbekistan wins mightily, then they Ayatollah's favored 11 have to do the 5th-place-playoff.

And just in case entry to the most prestigious tournament on the planet isn't enough drama for you, now the Koreans and Iranians are jawing at each other about "poor treatment" "humiliation" and subtle hints at match fixing...I'm guessing that match will have a little extra juice to it.

Final Match

The real thrill of the day comes at the end of the day in Amman, Jordan, but it depends largely on what happens in Australia six-and-a-half hours earlier.

When even a little soccer blog
takes potshots at you...you should
be sad

The visiting Red Warriors of Oman could easily settle for a draw to solidify their spot in third place/the fifth place playoff (a new record for their nation), especially if Australia wins in which case they couldn't do better than third anyway. But if the Socceroos fall, the door opens for Oman and a victory would set an even better new record: World Cup qualification. (An Australia draw plus a seven goal victory of Jordan would also see them through...but come on, there's a better chance of Keanu Reeves winning a Tony award than there is of that happening.)

The home team will be desperate for a win, as they need all three points just to move in to third (an Australia loss plus a highly unlikely 8 goal swing in goal differential is the only way they've got to get in directly).

So there it is, six teams are set to battle for three sure thing spots and two awkward third-place will-they-or-won't-they playoffs.

In It...but Win It? #1 Brazil & Japan

It's time to a for a new feature here on the Montana Hooligans! We've spent much of the last two years chronicling the ups and downs of the qualifying process of all those teams major news outlets rarely talk about. Does ESPN care if Lebanon topped Pakistan? Does Rupert Murdoch's sport empire bother to tell you what Guyana's chances are? NOPE! But we do because...well...because we're nerds.

We'll fit in GREAT!!

Yet, in just about one year we'll be down to just 32 teams in Brazil, so perhaps we ought to take a little time to look at serious contenders as well. So when teams punch their tickets to the final round of competition, we'll celebrate their accomplishment and then give you rapid analysis of their chances to win the cup--long before we know who they'll actually face and who will actually be on their team.

You might be asking, why should you do that? Well, we offer this analysis, not because it will be accurate or even useful, but because it will be funny and fast. After all, any one can give you accurate analysis in a few months, but we're happy to give you inaccurate analysis as soon as we can. (And if that's not a pitch to add us to CNN's broadcast team, I don't know what is)

Qualifier #1: Brazil

Contender Credentials: Start with the one of their many nicknames: Pentacampeão or "Five Time Champions". Brazil churns out championship calibre squads and players like the Disney Channel churns out future child-star rehabbers. Their joga bonito style of play is often imitated but never duplicated giving rise to the popular Brazilian saying: "futbol was invented in England and perfected by Brazil". And as host nation they get the regular home-field advantage that comes each World Cup, as teams out perform their expectations.

Pretender Problems: Between former coach Mano Menezes fielding young, untested squads that struggled at times, and recent rehire Luiz Filipe Scolari struggling even more in the run-up to the Confederations Cup, this is not your pappy's Seleção. They've fallen to 22nd in the FIFA world rankings, their lowest ranking...ever. They have now slipped behind Ecuador, Switzerland and Bosnia/Herzegovina, leaving them just one step ahead of Mali. How a team like that wins the World Cup? I do not know

Pie-In-The-Sky Scenario: The salubrious effects of playing at home rejuvenate Brazil and they steamroll every opponent enroute to their sixth championship
Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Without clear focus in the attack, and with the pressure of their home fans around them at every turn, they crumble in a Round-of-Sixteen game for their worst performance in 24 years.
Our Ridiculously Early Prediction: A little home-cooking helps, but can't overcome natural deficits Semi-Finalists

Qualifier #2: Japan

Contender Credentials: Japanese football is clearly on the rise. Its best domestic players are battled over with the same passion you hear about around elite African or Latin American prospects (Shinji Kagawa of Man United to name but one). Manager Alberto Zaccheroni has crafted the best winning percentage of any Japanese manager since Hans Ooft nearly twenty years ago. Add to that a fourth place finish at last year's Olympics, a spot at the Confederation's Cup this month and an impressive march to qualification and you've got a hot squad.

Pretender Problems: Though they've had some success in recent cups, Zac Japan (so called in honor of its manager) has not yet won a game in the knock-out stages. And as well as they've played in qualifying, the best teams in recent years have played together or against each other far more than they play apart. The youngest players on the national team play in Japan, the more experienced players are scattered from England and Germany, to Russia, Belgium and Italy, making it more difficult to prepare as one cohesive unit.

Pie-In-The-Sky Scenario: Building off recent successes and spurred on by the largest Japanese population outside of Japan (1.8 million), the Blue Samurai make a shocking run to the finals!

Pits-of-Despair Scenario: Worn out by disparate club schedules and stuck in a difficult group, they continue their alternating pattern of stink-knockouts-stink-knockouts...with a decidedly stinky performance.

Our Ridiculously Early Prediction: There's too much talent to be ignored, but not enough to shock the world: Quarterfinalists